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Thursday, December 27, 2018

Syrian peace, a complicated endeavor.

MANY PLAYERS, DIFFERENT AGENDAS

ASSAD HAS PREVAILED


Image result for syrian civil war map december 2018

It is a fact that Syrian dictator Assad has prevailed in the war in Syria. Now there is an effort to bring peace and stability to the country. The problem is that there are a long list of participants some with different objectives.

The Syrian civil war has caused the death of hundreds of thousands and the displacement of millions. The objective now should be a stable and peaceful Syria were many more refugees can go home. Hopefully there can be agreements made internally for a reform that will be lasting.

Many in the U.S. establishment would still favor the overthrow of Assad, but that is now unlikely and what did they hope would have replaced this government.

Turkey would still favor the removal of Assad. They would also like to crush the Kurdish movement for self government.

Israel wants the Iranian military out of Syria, especially in areas near their border.

Iran has been a long time supporter of Assad and wants to expand and solidify their power in the region.

Iraq has granted the Kurd's some autonomy in their quest for self government. At present Iraq is reasonably stable by Mideast standards.

Russia has become the major negotiator of a peaceful, stable Syria, a long time supporter of the Assad government, they have been negotiating with Turkey and Iran and Syria. with side negotiations with Israel and the U.S.. They attempted to secure from Syria a deal that would have given the Kurds a self governed territory in eastern Syria. Syria rejected this deal for now.

Israel wants Iranian forces out of Syria, but Iran has resisted as long as U.S. forces are stationed near their border.

Turkey has agreed with the Trump administration not to address their problems with the Kurds until they have eliminated Isis from Syria. It seems there is going to be a stepped up campaign by Turkey, Syria and Russia to finish off the remaining remnants of Isis left in Syria. U.S. air power may also be employed in this task.

When Isis is eliminated, then the time for a plan to remove foreign troops from Syria and come to some peaceful deal concerning the Kurds will need to be negotiated.

Over 100,000 Syrian refugees have returned home, but there at least 4 million still displaced into other countries in the region. It will be in everyone's interest when that is accomplished.

The withdrawal of American troops from Syria may be a one time good faith effort at ending the civil war and clearing Syria of foreign combatants. If Turkey or Iran take it as an opportunity to enhance their positions, it may be a short lived effort.

2 comments:

  1. generally agree with your analysis, but there are many potential contentions...i.e. yesterday israel felt compelled to attack an iranian supplied arms depot, resulting in a russian rebuke.

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  2. It most likely will not be a smooth transition. Russia has been consulting with Israel for several years, they want Iran out of Syria, It seems Russia has bargained that if the U.S. leaves Syria they will be able to persuade Iran to do the same. It will be interesting to see if they have the leverage to pull it off.

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