Day 24, The week of decision.

 ULTIMATUMS AND RETALIATION

NETANYAHU ADVOCATES GROUND COMPONENT

This is now the fourth week of this war and it may be the time for pivotal decisions. This weekend, Trump stated it was time for the war to wind down and then hours later issued an ultimatum that the strait of Hormuz must be opened fully within 48 hours, late this evening, or the U.S. and Israel will destroy Iran's electrical power production. Iran, being predictable, threatened to destroy all electric and desalination production in the region.  This is a massive threat of escalation that if acted on will plunge the region into an economic and humanitarian disaster.

It is being reported that Israel is being selective as to how to defend  the continuing missile assaults, in an  attempt to only use interceptors on priority targets. There were damaging hits on Israel's nuclear facility at Dimona. 

Netanyahu stated that a ground component will be necessary to reach their objectives in this war. There was no elaboration on whose ground troops he had in mind and one must wonder if this is connected to Trump's talk of winding down and then escalation.  It is not clear as to who is running this war.

The Strait is open to navigation at the discretion of Iran, Japan and India and others have been given permission to navigate through the strait.

The NATO head has claimed a 22 member group is considering assisting in opening the strait, no timeline or estimation of when has been revealed.

Many are now reporting that the Gerald Ford carrier, which is now in port in Greece, has suffered from internal sabotage of clogged sewage system and then fires that required 30 hours to extinguish. Having experienced extended times at sea many years ago, it is true that it is physiologically very taxing and morale sinks very low and grumbling and frustration can become rampant. Just the strain of extended time at sea, coupled with possibly divided support for the war will require a complicated test of leadership. 

Decisions in the next few days will be pivotal on the direction of this war. There is no end in sight, it is indeed becoming a war of attrition. The economic damage to the whole region may take years to recover. The global damage will take at the least many months, that is all without further escalation. 

Note, Trump has postponed impending attacks due to claimed negotiations, Iran denies any negotiations in progress and is backed up by most knowledgeable analysts.