Bait and Switch Gaza deal dead. WW3 risks rise.

 MEDIA EVENT WITHOUT REAL SOLUTIONS

NO ONE CAN BE TRUSTED, NO GOOD FAITH

It is clear that the deal for Gaza will not be accepted, nor will it be renegotiated. It has been revealed that the Arab community which tentatively approved a deal, saw a far different deal when displayed on national Tv. It seems after meeting with Netanyahu, the deal was changed to make it unacceptable to Hamas and the other Arab leaders, probably intentionally. Of course, now it can be blamed on Hamas and the killing can continue. The deal basically required surrender and perpetual subjugation by Israel.

It also appears that a major attack on Iran is in the works and there is speculation that this will be coordinated with escalation in Ukraine and even a possible attack on Venezuela. Is the plan now to cut oil supplies to China from the middle east, destabilize Iran as vital link in the belt and road initiative and tie up Russia in Ukraine to avoid intervention? A complicated and dangerous plan with many risks. 

There is little doubt that an attack on Iran is being prepared, it seems large amounts of materials and resources moving to the middle east can not be concealed. At the same time we see France illegally boarded and detained a Russian ship in international waters with the public acknowledgment that they want to destabilize Russia's supply chain, an act of war.  Estonia also is advocating embargoing all sea traffic out of St. Petersburg, another illegal act. All this is coupled with political election shenanigans in Romania and Moldova to possibly open another front over Ukraine. There are continuing reports of expanded U.S. preparations for an operation on Venezuela to control that oil and deny it to China and other buyers.

One can expect the subjects of these attacks understand these realities better than anyone, and one must wonder when they may come to believe that they would be best served with a massive pre-emptive attack.

While for a time it appeared we had moved back from a potential WW3, any such plan will indeed be WW3, once it starts, the odds are in favor of ending in a nuclear confrontation.

Is Venezuela a threat to U.S. ?

 WHAT'S UP WITH POSSIBLE WAR WITH VENEZUELA?

DO WE NEED MORE FIRES TO DEAL WITH?

Speculation abounds that the U.S. is expected to take military action with Venezuela. We know that opposition to the government of Venezuela has been a hot topic ever since the election of the socialist government of Hugo Chavez in 1998. Chavez put in many policies of redistribution and nationalized much of the industries in the country. It seems he was elected in a democratic elections and popular with a majority of the country, by a small margin.  He died at an early age in 2013 and was followed by Nicolas Maduro, as he was vice president.  He was elected later in a special election with a narrow margin of 1.5%. In later elections the last which was in 2024 there have been accusations of corruption and fraud. In 2019 many claimed that the country was moving to a dictatorship and the U.S. and Organization of America States considered the president of the Assembly, Juan Guaido as the legitimate president. 

Accusations by Maduro of assassination attempts and internal unrest fanned by the CIA have been prevalent for years. John Bolton under Trump advocated military intervention in Venezuela in Thump's first term. At that time the accusation was spreading communism or his human rights violations in Venezuela.

Recently there have accusations of Venezuela being a major drug supplier to the U.S. While we can expect that there is drug business in Venezuela it is most likely dwarfed by such business in Mexico, Columbia, Canada, and even the U.S.  

As for Communism and socialism, I do recall the whole reason for the war in Viet Nam was the spread of communism, the  domino theory. Today Viet Nam is still a dedicated communist country with government advocacy for communism on the internet, yet it is visited by American presidents and has most favored trade arrangements. I expect, like much like our middle east policy, it is all about oil. Oil that Venezuela would sell in any amount, one would desire to buy.

The biggest method of the continuation of dictatorships and communist dictatorships in particular, is the always continuous external threats, sanctions and fear of foreign intervention.  Communism and socialism are failed economic policies that will in time fail, as in the Soviet Union and even in the western democracies. Foreign intervention and threats will usually unify the citizens around even the leaders they despise and thus prolong their power.

Secondly any military intervention in South America will raise red flags and anti-Americanism to new level in other places that view the U.S. as a bully and needs to be feared, opening the door for real opponents to take advantage.

I suspect that U.S. has enough crisis that it needs to address, without looking for more. Venezuela is not Panama or Grenada and the world is far different than in the 1980's. 

Military reform, a positive move for military morale.

HOPEFULLY THE END OF SOCIAL ENGINEERING IN THE MILITARY 

ALL STANDARDS TO BE BASED ON MERIT

Yesterday, Pete Hegseth, the head of the defense department, made his big speech before the high ranking members of the military. It was a surprisingly well delivered and appropriate speech in an effort to restore the integrity and morale of the United States military. It was in effect declaring the end of social engineering in the military, an end of all woke policies and return of uniform standards for all without special cutouts or exceptions, especially for combat soldiers.

All soldiers would need to qualify on a semi-annual basis, combat standards would be based on male expected performance. Uniform and personal hair and beard standards would be uniform as in former times. He stated that these standards would be the same for all members of the military.

I would hope that there would be still exceptions for the older commanders of the military, if look at the past we have seen in war some of the best commanders would not have been able to compete physically with 20 year old soldiers, General Schwarzkopf and in fact the present commander in chief would be good examples. Many of the high ranking generals of the past were valuable for their experience and decision making ability rather than physical ability. 

I watched all of Hegseth's speech and part of Trump's, I think it would have been best to have let Hegseth have his day, Trump did his usual political highlighting of accomplishments. The major statement he made was reiterating that the U.S. is in effect, out of the Ukraine conflict. Weapons would be sold to the EU members and they can do what they want with them. He made it clear that there will not be any more aid to Ukraine. We will see if this is true.

Many believed this was some sort of preparation for war, but I believe it was just the much needed reform to make the military a high morale and cohesive fighting force, as in the past.

Gaza peace? Iran war part 2, imminent. Escalation in Ukraine.

 PEACE, PEACE, WHEN THERE IS NO PEACE

WORLD OPINION HAS FORCED TALK OF PEACE

Yesterday we saw the unveiling of Trumps 21 point peace plan for Gaza. It seems there is some sort of agreement between Netanyahu and Trump, but only time will tell, if any of this will come to reality. One may suspect that world opinion and U.S. public opinion in particular forced at least a public acceptance, with the hope that it will cool off the opposition to Netanyahu's plans. It contradicts much of Netanyahu's speech at the UN. 

At the same time we hear U.S. aircraft refueling tankers are heading to the region an indication that the next strikes of Iran are imminent. U.S. personnel in Iraq are set to be withdrawn by the end of September. It is reported that Iran fully expects and is doing all that it can to prepare for this attack. One wonders if this was the priority that was talked about in Washington.

A war with Iran will most likely be far more intense this time and may have an increased assistance from the U.S.. It is doubtful that any ground operations will be involved other than possible sabotage efforts. Some believe the attack on Venezuela will be coordinated to replace oil supplies lost from the region in case of a closing of the Hormuz straits.  All of this is of course speculation based on the movements of resources, but it is generally assumed that war with Iran is a priority for Israel. This has the possibility to bring in many players in the region particularly in the gulf where there are U.S. bases. 

Then there is talk of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, if it should  happen it would be the biggest escalation in this conflict. These missiles are strategic  nuclear capable missiles and  these missiles which would be manned by U.S. personnel and U.S. targeting assets, it would be very close to a declaration of war by the U.S. against Russia. Most believe this is another bluff particularly since the sanctions against China and India have died a quiet death. If this should happen the whole situation in Ukraine will become much more violent.

Russia has called this operation a Special military action, it has not declared war on Ukraine. Russian policy is very much guided by descriptions of actions and pre ordained polices.  Contrary to western narrative, this has not been an all out war by Russia, it had one call up of reserves and has grown and maintained its troop strength by voluntary enlistment. It has not placed the Russian economy and assets in a total war footing. It has refrained from attacking government buildings in Kiev or the vital bridges over the Dnieper river. It has been a war of attrition hoping to degrade the Ukrainian military and the ability of NATO keep up the supplies. It has been generally successful. Russia has more devastating conventional assets it has not used,  and of course huge nuclear assets. U.S. strategic missile attacks will undoubtedly cause Putin to give in to the internal forces that have been calling for the decisive end to this conflict by all out total war. If that happens, no one can predict where it will end.

This can only bring to mind the bible verse in Jerimiah, " Peace, Peace, when there is no peace"  talking about the insincerity of those who talk about peace but want war.

Comey indicted by Grand Jury.

 SEEKING JUSTICE OR TRUMP REVENGE

THE NATION NEEDS ACCOUTABILITY TO RESTORE CREDIBILITY

The indictment of James, Comey, former FBI director, is the first indictment in the hope of having complete disclosure and accountability in the Russian Hoax scandal. There may be many other Grand Juries underway as there is a long list of government officials who have obviously lied under oath and conspired to destroy the Trump first term.

There is lots of video evidence against Comey and others, plus documented proof that the FBI knew before Trump's inauguration that the Steele dossier was fabricated by Christopher Steele, a former MI6 agent, working for lawyers of the Hillary Clinton campaign.

It was also documented that Adam Shiff and others knew that the Russians did not hack the Democrat National committee, but was copied from the DNC computer in Washington and then handed to WikiLeaks. It became obvious when lawyers for the Russians asked to set a court date and demanded disclosure that the whole thing collapsed.

Many today want to believe that Trump won against Clinton because of Russian help, a weak excuse for the loss. 

This last decade of lawfare and fake prosecutions is unique in that many were conducted or had the assistance of government officials, it has resulted in the loss of creditability of most every institution of the government. We witness the result today with many believing that there is no justice or ability to count on a unbiased intelligence or legal system. It is a very negative environment for meeting the challenges that need to be addressed by the country. 

Only a full disclosure and accountability for those who intentionally broke the law, will be a first step in restoring the necessary credibility of government agencies. 

Can the new Geopolitical realities be accepted without war?

 THE WORLD HAS CHANGED, COULD IT BE A POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT?

MUCH OF THE WORLD IS ALREADY ACCEPTING THE NEW REALITIES

Watching many of the speeches at the UN meetings this week, it is a window into the changing world that is no longer reversible. Can a new geopolitical and economic world be a positive development, for all those who are willing to understand the realities of the dying present system.

The breakup and the reinvention of the former Soviet Union into a functional and prosperous  reality should be viewed as an example of the possibility of a peaceful transition. Of course, today this is heresy in the western world, Russia is evil and must be confronted and contained or else the world is at risk.  Most are not willing to accept that Russia made a conscious decision to end communist rule and move to a better place for their citizens and attempted to become part of the world community. A naïve idea in retrospect, no one becomes part of the present community without  one major compromise, total submission to the present dominion.

The same goes for China, no matter that China has become the undisputed manufacturing giant in the world, it has not fully submitted to the present ruling class and must be held in check, or even destroyed.

The reality is that the democratic socialist countries of western Europe and the United States are no longer the masters of the universe. Since it seems marital unions are now a new description of alliances, the majority of the world is in the process of a, hopefully peaceful, divorce from its abusive spouse.

While Europe continues to talk of war with Russia, they are delusional, because they no longer have the economic or political strength or unity to engage in such a war. Daddy is making it clear, that the U.S. is not going to engage in war with Russia. I suspect there is a unspoken acknowledgment in high places that this is the reality. Europe needs massive reforms to, in fact survive, in the coming new economic global environment. They should be apologizing to Russia and hoping that they will renew long term energy contracts to allow them to economically survive.

The end is coming to all former rails of domination, the dollar is nearing the end of its dominance, because it is backed by $37 trillion in debt and rising by the day. Military dominance is now often neutered by modern cheap weapons and countermeasures to negate the advantages of expensive and complicated weapons. The same old truths about war are still real, in that without actual conflict and defeat of the enemy on the ground, it is only a temporary and fleeting victory. Unless of course, one is willing to go all out with nuclear devastation. That is the fear and possibility, when great powers find they are no longer able to dominate the world.

Without the use of nuclear weapons, the west cannot defeat Russia, in fact, if Russia would be on the verge of defeat, they would either use these weapons themselves or, China, knowing that they are in the same lifeboat with Russia, will come to their aid.

Same goes for Iran, no one is willing to attempt to engage in a land war with Iran, just look at a map, A deadly quagmire for any rational analysis. Only a devastating nuclear attack can result in a very hollow victory.

Everyone has now witnessed the process of regime change chaos and devastation, it is now a defunct policy.

We see that Africa is finally becoming unified enough to end all the leftover colonial rules. They see new possibilities with better economic and trade deals with China, and other countries in the global south. While many are still on the fence, they are more and more leaning to a new era of global cooperation and mutual prosperity rather than being controlled and dominated or else. 

Of course the emerging new powers in the world may become obsessed with power and control just as the former, but if objective, we all need to admit the present dominion is no longer possible, due to the economic irresponsibility and an unwillingness to address the need for reform and changes internally.  The sooner that a policy of mutual respect, cooperation and a goal of mutual prosperity for all, becomes the new vision for the future, the sooner the world can accommodate the inevitable transition that is underway, without a massive toll of death and destruction. 

Crunch time for Middle East.

STANDOFF ON MANY FRONTS

NO SIGN OF COMPROMISE FROM ISRAEL 

This week we witnessed the recognition of a Palestine state by the major powers of Europe, Netanyahu's response was a quick and definite NO. This is sure to be followed by economic sanctions and other efforts directed at Israel. The reality is that the formation of a Palestinian state is far more complicated today than it would have been 3 years ago. At the same time, world opinion both from the middle east region and the majority of the world has solidified in opposition to Israel's polices in GAZA and its proposed policies in the west bank.

We hear more everyday about Israel's plan for a "Greater Israel". This would call for the expansion of Israel to include GAZA, the west Bank, Sinai peninsula, parts of Jordan, Syria and Lebanon. This plan has been voiced by members of the Israeli government and never denied. Some even include further expansion, if this not a real Israeli proposal, it should be made clear.

Then we are again back to Iran, it is no secret that Israel has attempted to instigated a possible war with Iran and the United States for over 30 years. So far, every president has rejected going to war with Iran, the pressure is coming again in the coming weeks. In the negotiations about nuclear enrichment, originally the deal was to limit enrichment to what is needed for nuclear energy. When it appeared that Iran was on the verge of accepting that deal, the anti was raised to end all nuclear enrichment, placing Iran at the mercy of outside sources for their nuclear energy and desalination projects, a limitation that has not been placed on any other country. This was pushed by Netanyahu, who knew it was a affront to Iran's national sovereignty and could not be agreed to. These negotiations ended when Israel attacked and assassinated the leadership in Iran. Some believe that Israel hoped the U.S. would then step in and destroy Iran.

This week Iran made it clear that they will not accept having no ability to be independent for their nuclear programs. They also will not allow IAEA inspectors who they believe, and are probably correct, that these inspectors identified Iran's nuclear scientists and residences for assassination. We can expect this will lead for calls for military action against Iran.

Some months ago Iran entered into a mutual cooperation deal with Russia and it is reported that Russia offered them a mutual defense pack which was rejected by Iran. Iran it seems does not want to become dependent on Russia and believing that they have the resources for their own defense.  

Since the June war, Russia has made available to Iran,  new jets, S400 anti aircraft systems and electronic counter measures, all defensive weapons. China has also been furnishing Iran with updated weapons. We can expect all this knowledge is made available to Israel via U.S. satellite intelligence and every day Iran become more able to counter an attack. Both China and Russia consider Iran a pivotal player in their future commerce plans and while they may not directly militarily intervene they have a huge stake in an independent Iran. They also could have a strong ability to enable compromise from Iran.

In the June war it is clear that Trump did not come to Israel's aid and Israel suffered some severe damage to its infrastructure and depleted its defensive missiles. Again, there are reports that Netanyahu told Trump to end this or they would resort to a nuclear attack on Iran. We then had the attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, a prearranged ceasefire negotiated by gulf countries with Iran and Trump declared victory. We can now expect, particularly since Israel's position is now more precarious, that we will see a replay or attempted replay. It is possible that Netanyahu cannot politically back down and it is not clear if Trump will commit to war with Iran. Can Netanyahu trust Trump to come to Israel's rescue?

Again, like in the Ukraine conflict, Trumps power is in saying no, rather than yes, to military assistance. Every day the pressure for Israel will get more pressing and also the pressure on Trump to promise assistance. The real danger for Israel is that Trump will say yes, but then say no.

While nuclear weapons against Iran would not directly affect Israel from fallout, they are unusable against other regional powers, one would expect that if Israel uses nuclear weapons, they will be attached conventionally from all sides. It is doubtful they could last a week, even with U.S. assistance. Most believe Israel has a closing window on being able to attack Iran.