Trump, don't count on US to aid war.

 CAN TRUMP AVOID PRESSURE FOR MORE WAR?

CAN NATO COMPLY WITH TRUMP'S DEAL?

In the last few days we have seen the possibility of escalating war increase, both in Ukraine and Israel. In Europe we see hysteria over unarmed Russian drones that entered Polish and Romanian airspace. Russia volunteered to have meetings with the Polish military to discuss this, but Poland refused. It is still possible that this is all a false flag event engineered by Ukraine, but if so, also encouraged by NATO members. 

We also see riots in the UK and France, who often talk about troops and war, but are not likely to be any position to actually bring it to reality. One must suspect that they are covertly hoping that they can entice Poland to put troops in Ukraine, they would offer verbal encouragement. Then there is the push to rearm Germany, a dangerous effort for many reasons. I suspect that they would also hope to give support in case of war with Russia. The reality is that there will not be an escalation of the war in Ukraine without a U.S. commitment and it does not look that is going to happen.

Trump poo-pooed the hysteria over unarmed drones, then offered his deal for more sanctions on Russia. He told NATO that he is willing to increase sanctions and tariffs on Russian oil buyers, if NATO members will stop buying all oil originating in Russia, I suspect that they economically cannot. They would also have to put 100% tariffs on China, again an economic impossibility. It is clear, Trump has no intention of being dragged into a war with Russia. 

In the middle east, the Arab counties, including Egypt, are meeting today and it seems they are going to agree to form a cooperative army to counter Israel's expanded strikes on other countries, in its effort to defeat Hamas. The latest strike on Qatar seems to have been sort of the last straw. Trash talking by Israel against Turkey and Egypt have increased tensions with both counties and the imminent attack on Iran may very well unify the opposition to Israel. The reality is that Hamas is not popular with any of these countries, but there populations are increasingly outraged at the GAZA situation. Israel has lost even its weak support from Egypt and Jordan, and it seems the rest of the world, except the U.S.. It may be that Israel needs to change direction or it is possible that any further escalation will be met with unified military action.

Again, without U.S. commitment, Israel will need to change some of its policies, if not its government.  I suspect that Trump understands that an escalated mid east war will most likely end in a world economic crisis and possibly nuclear confrontation. Not to mention, an end to his vison of a reinvigorated America and even his presidency.