Exodus out of Ukraine underway.

 YOUNG MEN ATTEMPT TO ESCAPE THE INEVITABLE

100,000 MIGRATE IN LAST 60 DAYS

In August, Ukraine softened its rules on cross border migration, it was hoped that it would increase repatriation of citizens now living outside the country. In September and October an estimated 100,000 exited the country. Ukraine also lowered its draft age to 23, it has been incrementally lowering the age from 27 over the last few years. One can assume that it may be set to go even lower, with increased pressure from U.S. supporters, like Lindsey Graham, to lower the age to 18. 

At present, voluntary enlistments are rare with most of new recruits abducted by teams that routinely watch for men between 23 and 60 that are forcibly sent to the front, many assume it is to their certain death.  

It is also reported that infantrymen in most brigades are hopelessly undermanned with officers and commanders often far outnumbering foot soldiers. The life expectancy of commanders, some who have been fighting for 3 years, is far higher than new recruits.

With the prospect of lowering the draft age to 18, one might expect anyone even close to that age, to be a prospective migrant.

In that same time period 50 eligible draftees have died attempting to cross the river into Romania. One can only speculate how many may have been able to successfully escape.

At present the military prospects for Ukraine are growing dimmer with numerous battles in the process of being concluded. It is clear that Ukraine, without direct intervention by NATO personnel, will be continuously retreating over the blood and bodies of its young men.

Venezuela; Libya, Iraq, all over again.

WILL TRUMP PULL THE TRIGGER ON OIL INSPIRED REGIME CHANGE? 

MAY NOT BE AS EASY AS SOME BELIEVE

We see the increase of U.S. forces in the Caribbean in what appears to be preparations for military action on Venezuela. This is supposed to be because of Venezuela's participation in drug running to the U.S.. This is about as believable as "weapons of mass destruction" for the excuse of taking control of Iraqi oil. Maduro should not believe that his capitulation to U.S. demands will save the country from exploitation. Gaddafi, after agreeing to demands was then deposed and murdered, I assume the same is in store for Maduro.

Again, while Maduro may not be the best leader in the America's, it is interesting we are not ready to invade either Mexico or Columbia, at least not yet. Of course the real cause of the drug business is U.S. demand, increasingly legal in states across the nation. As long as there is a massive demand for drugs in the U.S. there will be someone suppling it and many getting wealthy enabling it. 

It seems that the hope is to intimidate Maduro to leave the country and allow the new pick for his successor, Maria Machado, to take over, after all, she already has the international community's endorsement.

It could be a problem, if Maduro, who has already exposed one CIA plot to engineer a coup, decides to hang tough and resist being overthrown both politically and militarily. It seems there is serious preparations being made to militarily resist. 

We can assume the the U.S. can defeat the local military in the populated areas and then secure the oil facilities. It is doubtful that the U.S. will venture into the interior were it will likely find home gown insurgents and lots of others from neighboring countries, both free lancers and secretly supported by some South Americans, who do not like the precedent, who would like to inflict damage on the U.S..

If Trump does pull the trigger on this, we can then assume his " Make America great again" is over. It will be more of the same of the last 35 years of death and destruction. We will understand that powers that be have succeeded in cancelling his hope of turning a new leaf on America's foreign policy. It will also send a message to other Latin Americans that a new colonial power is intent on the business of plunder. It can also be the cause for many of the fence setters to align themselves with other trading blocks and other forms of unified resistance.

10,000 Ukrainians surrounded.

 POKROVSK AND KUPYANSK ENCIRCLED

SURRENDER OR DIE

Two major areas of conflict on the Donetsk battle lines have been mostly decided. The battle for Pokrovsk, which many consider one of the last remaining strongholds in the region has been encircled, with no way of retreat or escape, this is also true to the north in Kupyansk. While fighting continues, in attempts to break out, it is reported this is now unlikely. Sadly, as has been the pattern of Ukrainian strategists, they have never retreated in time to save their personnel. We have seen the heavy losses in Mariupol, Bakhmut and Avdiivka when Ukraine would not evacuate their troops to allow them to fight another day. 

Some believe that after these losses, there are not many heavily fortified areas to the west.  Many of these defenses have been created over 10 years and are not easily replaced. We can see that this is why a call for a ceasefire from Ukraine and the west has been desperately sought.

Ukraine is now in a desperate situation with many places without electricity and new Russian offensives expected in Kherson and Kharkiv. The best hope for Ukraine is a settlement relinquishing territory now claimed by Russia. So far, Ukraine and the EU have refused to make any concessions, claiming Ukraine must regain all its territory. This would have been a possibility before the war commenced and shortly after the onset, but now much blood and treasure has been expended and there will not be a ceasefire or frozen conflict.

The natural geographic future border for Ukraine is the Dnieper river. Ukraine to the west, Russia to the east.  If this war continues until complete defeat, Ukraine may also lose Odessa, its access to the Black sea.

Zelensky refuses to make any concessions most likely because if he does he will be targeted by the nationalists. Europeans also insist on continuing, understanding that NATO and their standing in the political sphere will be greatly diminished.

I suspect that Trump would do most anything to get this over with, but is under extreme pressure to continue from the neocons in his party.

Of course, the biggest loser is the people of Ukraine, a country that could have been the most prosperous in Europe, if it had remained neutral. Its leaders made its choice to join NATO and confront Russia, probably the worst decision made in the 21st century, at least, so far. 

Is Pakistan the west's new proxy agitator.

 ATTACKS ON INDIA AND AFGHANISTAN

SMELL OF WESTERN INSTIGATION

In recent weeks we have seen Pakistan engage in attacks on first India and then Afghanistan. Situated with Iran and Afghanistan on its northern and western borders and China and India on the east, it is a remnant, as its borders, of the British Empire. Pakistan was a created in1947 by the British dividing it from India,  as often the case to intentionally divide to create ethic disputes and continual controversy. Divisions that could be used to continue control in a less transparent way. The country is a constitutional republic, but is in effect ruled by the military. Its military is heavily supported and managed by both British and U.S. intelligence.

Several years ago the president of Pakistan, Imran Kahn, proposed Pakistan remain neutral in its geopolitical leanings, He desired to have good relations with all and stay out of international politics. The very popular and elected leader was promptly removed by a no confidence vote instigated in Washington. There are documented communications to prove this without doubt. Khan did not go quietly and attempted to run for office again and survived an assassination attempt. He was eventually imprisoned and forbidden from running for office. The last election is now viewed as a farce manipulated by the military.

The attack on India is most likely just another attempt to destabilize the government of Narendra Modi, who also desires to keep India in a neutral position and have good relations with all. He has refused to get involved in the Ukraine project and has also refused to stop trading with Russia. This attack was just one attempt to damage his presidency with accusations coming from Canada of India's attempt to assassinate former Indians in Canada, a scurrilous attempt to cause trouble in disputed areas of India, disputed due to drawing of boundaries by Britain.  This was most likely an attempt instigated by the CIA through Canada.

It is all part of the "you are either with us or against us." policy. Peace was quickly restored due to the mediation of Donald Trump. We will soon understand if Trump is a co-conspirator or a victim of MI6 and CIA shenanigans.

As for Afghanistan, it is clear that the U.S. desires the Russian built Bagram air base. Pakistan will find the Taliban and Afghanistan a tough nut to crack, as has others for the last couple of centuries.

India has  now become alienated from the U.S. by the leadership and the citizens. It will most likely not be siding on the west's side in the geopolitical war. 

As for Bagram air base, one would not be surprised if China would soon find an invitation for a very lucrative lease.

Escalating trade war, who will be damaged more?

 IF CONTINUED IT WILL LEAD TO WORLD WAR

OIL PRICES RISE 5% ON WORD OF NEW SANCTIONS

It seems that Trump somehow believed that Russia was now ready to implement a ceasefire and at least temporarily end hostilities in Ukraine. One has to wonder where that idea came from, as Russia has made it clear from even before the war started what's its goals are. It has been communicated clearly and consistently for near 3 years, if you can read and listen you know what has to happen for this conflict to end. Of course the west understands Russia's position, but still believes it can threaten, intimidate, and even cause an economic crisis inside Russia. So far, it has not happened and ironically western Europe, who now has the highest energy costs in the world and whose economies and domestic politics are teetering are attempting to engage in an economic escalation. 

Russia has predictably ruled out a ceasefire that is intended to rearm and refortify Ukraine and then continue the fighting in an effort to defeat Russia. This is either going to end with a understanding of Russia's goals or it will end on the battlefield.

One must remember the two most important necessities in life are food and staying warm in winter. I suspect Russia will have both, long after the rest have succumbed to both realties. Of course, the neo aristocrats in the EU will be dining high and life for them will change little, but there will be consequences.

These new sanctions, supposedly on Russian oil companies, are in fact more sanctions on India and China. Both these nations still have a clear understanding, due to their historical dealings with British empire, that it is still the same recipe.  Any cut in India's oil production will immediately effect the cost or even the lack of oil it sends to the EU. I do not believe India is going to sacrifice its economic health and put the EU first.

The big losers are going to be the EU and then Ukraine, which may soon find that Russia has been in fact restrained in its use of military power. Vital transportation targets have been spared, as has the government buildings in Kiev. In fact, Russia is not legally in an all out war with Ukraine, many in Russia are calling for an out mobilization and a decisive end to this conflict.

Objectively the west cannot defeat Russia, even with NATO engagement because China cannot let Russia loose.  China has tens of millions of young men, if needed, and the manufacturing capacity to swamp the production of the west.

That leaves only nuclear war and Russia will not submit to being defeated by any means. It is indeed a standoff where someone needs to take the first step in ending this and it seems there is no none.

Quietly, much of this is the U.S. hoping to support and defend the dollar, all while increasing deficits and debt and using the dollar as a weapon on the world, all counter productive. It can be expected that great de-coupling in world trade is now in sight. A world with two separate trading blocks. One with 1 billion and one with 6 billion citizens.

It could be a peaceful transition or it may end it everyone's destruction.

Cartels could be made irrelevant overnight.

 DRUG USE SHOULD BE A QUESTION OF PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY

A POLICY OF TOUGH LOVE FOR THE NATION

We have been in the midst of one war on drugs after another for over 50 years. The record is not much better than the other wars we have been fighting in that time. I would say that they have been simultaneous actions that began with the Viet Nam war. The majority of young men had their first exposure to drugs during their time serving in the U.S. military, before that time most never saw or were offered drugs.  Many who are still alive are still partaking of drugs. 

While drug use is a very serious problem for the nation, it may be dwarfed by the corruption caused by the drug business. Pablo Escobar, the dean of drug trafficking, responding to questions as to how he was able to create an international drug empire, stated that it was very easy, "Pay everyone here and everyone there" That was referring to political leaders and regulators. I suspect this simple answer  needed an added, or else. Take the money and be happy or refuse and suffer the consequences. Very similar to some foreign policy experts idea of diplomacy.

Eliminate the money and the cartels will evaporate, while they may move into other business, none is as steady and lucrative as the drug business. Take away the money and they lose much of their power.

This could be accomplished by the U.S. commissioning the mighty  U.S. Pharmaceutical companies to manufacture every possible drug desired by drug users and then undersell the cartels, even if they have to be free. Also U.S Farmers who are finding a weak demand for products could grow high quality, well produced hemp, poppies and coca with a permanent buyer in the US. government, who would then sell them at an uncompetitive price. untaxed and without profit to anyone but the producers. Even a lose of money by the government would be far better than the death and corruption caused by the present system, that is most likely never to ended. It would put the cartels out of business and also the economies of many south of the border countries. 

As a nation we would be better off.  When was the last time we witnessed a city mayor or other official arrested for taking cartel money, none that I can recall.  I would expect that this money goes to much higher places than mayors and police chiefs. The president and attorney generals of many south of border countries are known to be on the take, are our officials more righteous?

As for drug users, the only hope is that it becomes a matter of personal responsibility. While government rehab should be avoided, private and religious methods could be encouraged. Drug use needs to stigmatized as a bad choice, not celebrated as Hollywood has done for decades. 

Provisions would have to be made to protect children, by enforcing very strict laws and penalties for providing drugs to minors, the most vulnerable to the dangers of drugs.

Free the nation from the evils of the drug trade and hope that users will eventually survive their poor choices. Tough love indeed, love for the battement of the nation in the long run.

Yes, a gold backed currency is possible in the modern age.

 EVERY FIAT CURRENCY ENDED IN BEING WORTH 0

FIAT CURENCY IS LOVED BY POLITICIANS

This past weekend I listened to Warren Buffet, who claimed that gold is not viable in a modern economy. He supported Central Bank digital currency, even though he admitted it would give governments unlimited power over every aspect of life. He believe CBDC would be faster and more convenient.  He also failed to mention that it could be diluted in value on a daily basis without any control. 

Only currency with firm backing can be a real store of value and only such a currency can maintain a sound economy. 

I do believe a gold backed currency is not only possible, but it is the best solution to the crisis that is soon going to engulf the western world. I also expect such currency will be introduced at some time in the future.

For such a currency to be accepted, it cannot be the creation of any one nation, it will need to be a joint effort by a group of nations, the more the better. This is how such a sound money system could work in the modern world.

First this currency would be created for international settlement and commerce. Every nation could still use the currency that is in use for domestic commerce and even for international commerce if accepted. I suspect that it would soon be unacceptable.

This new currency, we will call it UNIT, could only be created with the deposit of gold into a system of banks and bullion storage that would exist in all participating countries. For each ounce of gold, lets say we could receive 480 UNITs, of course these values would need to calculated. These UNITs would represent real gold and could be exchanged for gold, if one should desire. This could be a paper currency, or an electronic deposit, it could be transferred electronically, just like digital currency. It would have all the characteristics of modern trading, except it would not be controlled by any one government and no units could be created without a equal deposit of gold. The audit and control would be facilitated by a board from the participating countries.  

If someone wants to have UNIT they would have to purchase gold in their currency then make the deposit of gold and receive the UNITs. If someone wants to exchange physical or paper UNITS for electronic, the paper UNIT's would be destroyed. The idea is that there would never be more UNITs  in existence whether paper or electronic than a corresponding amount of gold on deposit.

This would eliminate monetary inflation, it would soon require nations to be fiscally responsible, or they would soon run out of gold. It would lower interest rates to borrowers, because it would not include the need to account for the declining value of currency. Lenders could be assured that their loans would not be repaid with depreciated currency. 

It would lessen abuse by governments and central banks, force financial responsibility and would create real sound money and a solid store of value for workers and savers.

I do expect we will see some sort of such system in the near future, it could be participated in by all nations, or it will soon require non participating countries to make drastic changes in their fiscal policies. It will most likely create a flight from fiat or fake currency to real currency.  It would be in the best interest for all.