Will Trump get it right, after trying all options?

 TRUMP'S FIRST 6 MONTHS SEEM MUCH LONGER

ZIGGING AND ZAGGING, WITHOUT CATASTROPHE

So far, Trump has not yet made any permanent catastrophic decisions.  We see trial balloons for lots of ideas and we even see trial policies that often are either postponed or withdrawn. Sometimes we must wonder if Trump, who is undoubtedly being pressured and influenced by a host of  parties to go in one direction or another is hoping to discredit his adversaries by openly giving credence to their pressure.

Trump's entire political career has, whether intentional or just by his existence, exposed so much of the hypocrisy and corruption in many of the institutions of America. We could list the mainstream media, the Intelligence community and the bureaucracy in general. Some of these exposures have been more subtle and just seem to come about on their own. 

So far, Trump has successfully navigated the pressure to escalate the war in Ukraine. One must speculate that the war in Ukraine, if left to a natural conclusion will soon come to an end.  It will come to an end when all sides realize that further fighting is useless.  It appears that Ukraine is entertaining that idea, but the European powers, not yet. There will not be some dramatic breakthrough of diplomacy, but the just the grinding reality of an end.

Trump's use of tariff's to bring about negotiations to address unfair trade practices has a hope of being successful. This applies to Canada, Mexico and the EU who are the most dependent on U.S. trade. As for China, an adversarial approach will not yield results and China has a lot leverage to make such tariff's, mutually painful. Trump's approach with China in his first term, was much more respectful and more successful. Again, I suspect that Trump has a lot of pressure to be tough on China, trash narratives and disrespect will not be productive with China.

It is no secret that the use of tariffs as a weapon in the Ukraine conflict was pushed by the Senate and it will be dismal failure, it will be counter productive and needs to be walked back to avoid permanent damage to relations with India. Maybe the Senate can be blamed for this misstep and silenced for some time.

Then, of course, there is the pressure to go to war with Iran, Trump has, at least for now, sidestepped that pressure, by declaring victory and allowing Israel to feel the possible pain of all out war with Iran, especially without total support from the U.S. Again, time may hopefully help to resolve some of these issues.

Trump seems to have been successful in curtailing much of the illegal entrance into the country and removing the worst criminal elements. He has also exposed the cities who have resisted. I believe this is political loser for all those who defend illegal immigration.

It is true that many of Trump's cabinet were not the most qualified, it is true they were picked for loyalty first. It is also true that in Trump's first term many of his picks were disloyal and in fact were motivated to undermine and damage him. 

Trump has sustained much criticism by adversaries and supporters, it is obvious that Trump does not have total unaccountable support from his supporters. He does have one quality, and that is the ability to change direction when it is obviously a failed path. Trump's path is lined with minefields and obstacles in abundance and it will not be straight path to a successful term. We can only hope that it will be successful.

Ukraine conflict, permanent negative results still expanding.

 UKRAINE, BIGGEST U.S. BACKED DIPLOMATIC FAILURE

REPERCUSSIONS ARE CHANGING THE WORLD

While the accepted narrative is that Russia invaded Ukraine in an unprovoked attempt to begin the process of restoring the former Soviet Union. Many observers do understand that this was in fact a calculated plan to force or bait Russia to protect its security and sovereignty by resisting at all cost further expansion of NATO on its borders.

The hope was that Russia could be drawn deep into Ukraine and systematically destroyed, resulting in a regime change and dismemberment of the Russian federation. The hope was to make its resources available and controlled by the western powers. It is ironic that possibly it will be more damaging to the perpetrators than to Russia.

Then hear the hypocrisy when anyone brings up the question, "What would the U.S. do if Russian or Chinese military bases would be installed in Canada or Mexico, it seems such an analogy is just not relevant to those who have been well programed for decades that Russia is evil and the U.S. is always right.

One other instance of the hypocrisy of U.S. policy was recently exposed when the U.S. general in Europe bragged that Kaliningrad, a small enclave of Russia in the Baltic, was surrounded by NATO nations and was vulnerable to be overrun in a short time. So much for NATO being a defensive alliance.

So, back to the long turn effects of this Ukraine conflict. The first casualty has been of course the people of Ukraine who have died at an alarming rate. It is now estimated that they have experienced 1.8 million casualties, some say that is actually those killed. Then there is near 10 million who have fled the country, many who will never return. It is also reported, by Ukraine that they have now 400,000 deserters, who also may never return. No one mentions those who are maimed and now disabled. Then of course there is loss of at least 25% of the country that will not be recovered.

Meanwhile Europe who has lost its availability of moderate priced Russian energy is slowly being deindustrialized and with the animosity toward Russia may never be available in same fashion in the future. Europe has a bleak future without access to Russian oil.

Geopolitically, Russia is now, by necessity, strongly allied with China and Iran. With the latest desperate effort to force India to stop using Russian oil it is forcing India, who has resisted taking sides, into the same alliance.  India is now in the process of buying Russian arms including air defense and now fighter jets. 

Then there is growing expansion of BRICS, which was formed in 2008, ironically when the U.S. first proposed NATO expansion into Ukraine and Georgia. It has expanded from 5 countries to now 10 members and 10 partners  combined it represents 56% of the world population and 44% of the world GDP. It is an economic alliance that is tariff free, and is increasingly transacting in their national currencies, rather than U.S. dollars. It also rejects sanctions as a political weapon. It has 30 other countries considering becoming affiliated.

Much of the world is moving away from domination of the western powers, this is happening from Asia to Africa and South American.

Much of this move is a reaction against war, intrigue and regime change politics, much of coordinated by the western powers intelligence agencies with full support of their governments. It is now possibly going to be very hard to reverse this trend.

Then there is the United States, laden with a $37 Trillion debt and growing, much of it accumulated in participating and financing war around the world. Most all, not in actual security threats against the United States, but a lust for power to rule the world. The same policies that have historically resulted in the end of Empires.

Trump's Senate forced deadline is a bust.

 SENATORS GO HOME AND TARGETS SAY NO

MORE SANCTIONS RISK ALIENATING INDIA

Senator Lindsey Graham claims he has 80 senators who want to put huge sanctions on any country that does business with Russia. The threat forced Trump to put a 50 day deadline on Putin to end the war or else. The deadline was then reduced to expire on this Friday. The sanctions would be in the form of tariffs of 100% on China, India, Brazil and others, the response has been an overwhelming rejection by all. The Senate went home without passing the bill.

Most importantly India, who has been fighting for years to position itself as a neutral and non aligned country, seems to be the major target, realizing that Brazil and China were always a no go.

The continued pressure on India, a country that has always had good relations with U.S., is soon going to be pushed further into an alliance with Russia and maybe even China. In the past few years we have witnessed an effort to cause internal problems in India by Canada making claims of assassinations of Indian dissidents in Canada, most likely orchestrated by U.S. intelligence. Recently we see actual fighting between India and Pakistan after a Pakistani terrorist attack on India. Pakistan's military is under control of the U.S. for decades and was instrumental in forcing its popular leader Imran Kahn out of power, attempting to assassinate him and he is now in prison. Khan offense was his hope of making Pakistan an neutral non-aligned country and spare his country from geopolitical intrigue.

This week, India has been airing all its complaints against the U.S. going back over 50 years. and is threatening to cancel its purchase of F-35's. If they do, will they be buying Russian or Chinese options? The outrage is India is becoming overwhelming and Trump is still promising big tariffs  on India for buying Russian oil.

India is exposing that the U.S.. has issued waivers on sanctions on U.S. importers of Russian Uranium, Palladium and fertilizer. It also points out that much Russian oil and gas still finds its way into the EU countries. Some believe it is more about the BRICS trade group than Ukraine.

So now we will see the risk of making deadlines that may be unenforceable or will cause some other escalation to save face. It is becoming apparent that the ability of the U.S. to force compliance from other countries by the use of sanctions may be coming to an end,  maybe it will be replaced with actual diplomacy.

Playing Russian roulette with the Russians?

 IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE OR ELSE

POOR PLAYERS ALWAYS WANT TO QUIT WHEN THEY ARE LOSING

It seems every day a message is sent that the west is about to escalate to the point of nuclear war. It is good that, so far, Russia has not taken them very seriously. We have seen an attack on the Russian nuclear deterrent air force, can Russia not wonder if this is a testing of its ability to respond.  Then the U.S.. makes it known that nuclear arms have now been positioned in the UK., can Russia not wonder if this is indeed preparation. This week the U.S. general in charge of Europe stated that they can and have practiced and are capable of invading and taking Kaliningrad in very short time. Kaliningrad is a small 40 mile wide of Russian territory in the Baltic. Does anyone wonder why or what would happen after that? Would Russia then come to their senses and surrender? Trump has also stated that he has sent 2 nuclear armed submarines to be stationed off the coast of Russia. I assume Russia has its own submarines stationed within striking distance of the U.S. and now maybe it will be time to up the preparedness level. This all seems to be an exercise in juvenile gunboat diplomacy.

All this trash talking and actual moving of nuclear resources can only indicate to Russia that in their desperation the United States is considering a pre-emptive strike against the the leadership of Russia. This is indicated when the former leader of Russia responded to trash talking from the United States when he commented to not forget Russia's "Perimeter " or "Dead Hand" system. This is a reference to a system designed to automatically launch nuclear missiles if it detects a pre-emptive strike, even if it decapitates the leadership. It is no secret that some delusional people in Washington believe that they could do a preemptive strike on Moscow and all their problems would be solved.

It will be a sad day for the world if Russia begins to take the U.S. seriously and believes that a pre-emptive strike is imminent, it will leave them only one option.

This is all about the fact that Ukraine is in very bad straits. The plea is made that they want to stop the dying, but I suspect that if the roles were reversed it would be a completely different story, It would be onward to Moscow and reparations and dismemberment. The reality is, as it has been since the beginning in 2014, Russia is not going to accept NATO expansion in Ukraine and it will not stop until that is reality. If the west insists that not happen, and continues to escalate there will only be one ultimate result. 

The other option is to admit a miscalculation, an error of judgement, and agree to a neutral Ukraine and save as much of Ukraine as possible. It is the only way to really stop the dying. Stop with the, "Russia want to occupy Europe nonsense", who would want to rule over that mess? Europe has nothing that Russia needs.  This fiasco has been a tragedy for Ukraine, a loss of resources and young men for Russia, a lose of economic viability for Europe and a drain on the heavily indebted U.S. taxpayers. Only vanity and hubris is keeping this going, if only everyone could declare victory and go home, but that is not the reality of this dire situation. 

Why is U.S. losing its economic leverage?

 CHINA IS NOW THE DOMINANT TRADE PARTNER FOR 70% OF COUNTRIES

50% OF COUNTRIES HAVE DOUBLE TRADE WITH CHINA THAN US

We often hear how China is taking advantage of the U.S. in trade and the U.S. must now use its economic power to limit China's growth and economic expansion. A look at the 2 maps below indicate the difference in China vs U.S. trade performance with the world. I would say that horse is long out of the barn and the U.S. no longer has the economic leverage to block or diminish China's trading strength around the world. Sanctions and tariffs will not be able to stop the economic expansion of China nor will threats of war.

Lowy Institute graphic

The graphic is telling, but it also does not take into account that much of this growth has occurred in the last 10 years. It is no coincidence that this expansion has occurred after the onset of the U.S. wars in the middle east, efforts by several U.S. administrations to engage in trade accords with China and others. It is also interesting that this growth has occurred in spite of a U.S. policy of containment focused on China. A policy of sanctions, tariffs, embargo's of certain materials have all resulted in China actually becoming more self sufficient and continuing to expand.

Embargos of computer chips reversed China's $400 billion annual import of chips from the U.S to its being now a major exporter of computer chips at far less cost. It has been a negative effect on U.S. chip makers. Other efforts at embargos has resulted in China restricting the sale of vital rare earth minerals in response. 

The reality is that China has continued to enjoy a trading volume with the rest of the world, without threats, intimidation or sanctions, but by offering the best deal and opportunity for its partners to both prosper, always the best interaction in trade. 

The U.S. should take into account that the ability to buy low cost merchandise from China has kept the inflation rate low in the U.S. even with its habit of massive deficit spending. Sadly, China has enabled the U.S. federal government to be very fiscally irresponsible for all these years.

As for the U.S. losing its competitiveness, that is largely due to the massive repressive regulation and taxation that makes, made in the USA, increasingly prohibitive. If the U.S. would correct it all its disincentives to produce here it would take 30 years to become a positive reality.

While many will take this reality as offensive it is the world as it is today and requires a reexamination of policies both at home and abroad to ever hope to be successful. What is needed is more cooperation for mutual prosperity, rather than threats of economic or military force.

World support for Israel on life support.

 DENIAL AND RATIONALIZATION, NO LONGER WORKING

OWN POLICIES MAY BE ITS BIGGEST THREAT

It appears that a critical time in Israel's experiment may have now reached its most dangerous threat to its existence, not from Iran or other opponents in the region, but from its own policies that are in the process of alienating most of the world. The situation in Gaza and it seems a desire for endless war have piece by piece caused the biggest lose of world support in its history. 

While much of this is labeled as defensive strategies it is no longer being accepted by a growing majority of world opinion. Israel is a small country with a big powerful ally that has historically had the support of most of the world. Sadly that support has evaporated due to its polices in the last 2 years. Claims of opposition psych ops and other excuses are no longer credible. Israel needs a change of direction quickly or its future is going to be dire.

Not only has it lost world support, but it is fragmenting within, with an effort to keep its population up, but forbidding travel out of the country, other authoritarian measures and the economy is losing its vitality quickly. The country is likely in its most critical situation in it's history. 

The latest debate of whether people are starving in Gaza or not? If Israel is intentionally committing genocide or not? This is not the debate that will encourage support for Israel. 

Then there are public statements from high ranking Israeli politicians that state that the whole population of Gaza is Hamaa and should be treated as such. That babies will in 15 years  be terrorists and that food, water and medicine should be cut off until Hamas surrenders. All this is soon heard by the world.

Then there is the plan to displace the whole population of Gaza into a small area in the south in preparation for their removal to some still unknown place. There are reports that Israel and the U.S. is negotiating with Libya and some other African nations. Will these people actually end up being sold on the slave markets of Libya? Doesn't anyone realize that all this unacceptable, or have they come under some delusion, that everything is acceptable.

Today,  real solutions are harder than ever. The animosity is deeper and stronger than ever. It has been a great failing that real solutions have never been seriously attempted. Now the situation has deteriorated and it is doubtful if any of the population in the region will survive, including Israel.

More interesting facts about Epstein/ Maxwell case.

 LOTS OF UNANSWERED QUESTIONS

WHY DID BANKS PAY $365 MILLION IN DAMAGES

In the last few days it has been revealed that only 2 witnesses testified in both the Epstein and Maxwell Grand Jury trials. Only 1 FBI agent testified in the Epstein trial and the same agent testified in the Maxwell trial along with a N.Y. city policeman.

Epstein never went to trial but 4 victims also testified at the Maxwell trial along the same FBI agent. Maxwell never testified in her trial as both herself and her attorneys believed she would be acquitted.

It is interesting that J. P. Morgan Chase paid out $290 million dollars in compensation to over 100 alleged victims. Deutsche bank also paid out $75 million and the Epstein Estate paid out $121 million. This was all part of agreement that they would not seek any other action against the Epstein estate. One must wonder why these banks paid this money. 

One has to believe that Maxwell knows all about what went on in this affair, it appears she was around for much of the time cooperating with Epstein. It is reported that she was associated with Epstein from 1990 to around 2006 and she claims she was a property manager. It is not clear if she was actually involved after 2006, that is when Epstein was arrested and eventually received immunity from any other prosecution as part of his plea deal. This is why Maxwell is appealing to the Supreme Court claiming she is also covered by that Immunity agreement.

It seems that the allegations are concerning activities before 2006, It is not clear if any is concerning later activities, which lasted  for another 10 years.

Maxwell claims she wants to testify, but after a ruling by the Supreme Court, and also wants immunity for testifying. She cannot be forced to testify without the immunity deal. 

Many claim that there are hundreds, if not thousand of victims. Are we to believe that all these women were recruited for Jeffrey Epstein's personal activities?  Is that the accusation? If they were recruited to be coupled with Epstein's clients or guests, then they are accessories if not perpetrators. Are we to believe that Maxwell was able to recruit this massive number of women by herself ? All those associated are also accomplices. Sorry, the more that is revealed the more questions appear to be unanswered.

Maxwell was convicted of trafficking and sentenced to 20 years, are we to assume that all this was just to satisfy desires of Jeffrey Epstein?

I would expect that Maxwell could negotiate at least a commutation or a reduced sentence if she agreed to expose the whole truth. It is doubtful that the elite ruling class ever wants that to happen.

It will be interesting to see the how the courts and the legislature deal with these developments. We can only assume that many do not want any more revelations about this affair. Does anyone really believe the truth about the extent of this operation will ever be revealed?