U.S. shifts air defense assets from Ukraine.

 SHORTAGE OF STOCKPILES WITH 2 FRONT WAR

ISRAEL WILL TAKE PRIORITY

It has now been officially announced that some weapons will no longer be shipped to Ukraine. The Pentagon is claiming that air defense missiles are now in short supply and causing a danger to U.S. national defense. 

Patriot missiles are being produced at a rate of 500 per year and money has been allocated to raise that number to 650 a year. Each missile costs $4 million and a system for a missile battery cost $1 billion.

The Thaad missile cost $12 to $15 million and production is estimated at 8 a month or 96 per year.

The reality is the very expensive missile defense systems can be depleted by large numbers of  drones and other projectiles in a short time. Making them more selective, will then allow drones and other less dangerous weapons to be even more effective. Many of these other weapons are manufactured at a cost in thousands rather than millions. Many small nations like Yemen have been able to produce effective offensive missiles creating a dilemma at to what defenses need to made to lower cost, increase production of air defense weapons. 

Israel was depleting its missile defenses at an alarming rate in the 12 days of war with Iran, it could not replace the number being expended, it is likely going to get every available missile from bases and assets as possible.

During WW2 the U.S was able to produce 300,000 planes in just 5 years attesting to its overwhelming manufacturing capacity. 

Germany it is acknowledged had the best and most sophisticated weapons, expensive and not easily produced in numbers, especially when it became subject to air attack.

Today we see politicians and other trash talkers continually making threats against China, a country, if motivated, that will be able to outproduce the U.S. by many multiples. Can anyone explain the logic in this policy. 

We see that the Defense budget has now been raised to over $1 trillion surpassing the next combined spending of the next 10 nations including China and Russia. While DOGE was finding waste and fraud in many places the Pentagon seems to have been exempt and rather than reevaluating what is needed, it seems that more money is the answer. More of the same, is unlikely to solve the dilemma in a very quickly changing world.

Focus shifts from Ukraine to Iran, Azerbaijan and?

 OBJECTIVE IS STILL MAINTAINING CONTROL

BRICS AND FINANCIAL DOMINATION 

The 2025 BRICS annual meeting is to be in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil, July 6th. and 7th. While we see the Ukraine conflict now in its 3rd year and the Iran conflict still smouldering it needs to be mentioned that the big motive in much of the world unrest is the imminent loss of financial control by the West. The momentum for the reality of a alternative economic system moves forward steadily. The tactics of sanctions, fake negotiations and devious maneuvering just increase the speed of this alternative system becoming reality.

At the same time, the cost of attempting to maintain that control continues to grow, as budgets in the West all have massive deficits and growing unsustainable debt, the latest U.S. budget is a perfect example.

It has been the pattern in world history that empires always implode from over extension and massive debt. While historically, the United States was never an empire in the fashion of the Spanish or British empire, it created its wealth from internal enterprise and hard work, rather than in the age old method of Plunder and Colonialism. It seems that soon after WW2 the United States in cooperation with the economic power of the former British Empire, leadership saw opportunity in the rest of the world and slowly embraced the age old lust for world power and control. While the country lost its former internal wealth formation it seemed to replace that with the desire to control the world for financial gain. The results have always been historically the same, maintaining the empire soon leads to bankruptcy and disaster.

At present it seems those who desire to maintain that control are willing to cause the death of millions and destroy much in their quest to maintain control. The results of their quest, is in fact, insuring their demise and ultimate collapse.

So, as we watch unrest and violence around the world, be aware that the front shifts from Ukraine to Iran and then, we will see what will be next. A better idea would be to buy oil from the mideast and minerals from Russia and the result could be mutual prosperity. Prosperity seems to be secondary to the desire to control.

 

IAEA. Iran's catch 22.

 IAEA, JUST THE LATEST TO BE POLITICIZED

LOSING CREDIBILITY AND INDEPENDENCE

Iran, a signed member of the Nuclear non-proliferation treaty since 1970 is now in the midst of a serious dispute concerning the International Atomic Energy Agency. The treaty members have agreed not to be a nuclear military power and part of the agreement is inspections of nuclear facilities by IAEA. At present, since the 12 day war, Iran has not consented for the IAEA to resumé inspections inside the country.

As part of the original Trump deal with Iran, Iran had agreed to limit its enrichment to the percentage needed for domestic use in energy, desalination and medical purposes. They also agreed to monitoring by the IAEA. This deal was vetoed by Israel who wanted no ability for any nuclear enrichment and also near total disarmament of its missile program. This was unacceptable for Iran, and in hindsight a reasonable decision in the hope to insure their existence.

The first priority of Israel's attack on Iran on June 12 th. was Iran's leadership and nuclear scientists. It has been revealed that the IAEA had collected the names and addresses of these scientists and specifics about Iran's nuclear sites and passed them on to Israel's intelligence. Iran has been talking about arresting the current head of IAEA for being complicit in the attack that resulted in over 900 dead, many wounded, and much damage. Internally they will not be able to let the IAEA back into the country and, of course, this will be used as a reason for more military action. 

This could be remedied by the International community by replacing many in the IAEA in an effort to regain its credibility, but it seems that all is fair in the ongoing war with Iran and any others who may not be in favor.

I suspect we will be hearing much about this in the days to come.

Why quick ceasefire?

 MORE FACTS ABOUT WHO WANTED CEASEFIRE

PAUSE UNTIL NEXT ROUND?

Many were surprised to watch the 12 days of Iran/US/ Israeli conflict pause in a dramatic ceasefire. Let's look at the facts by all sides to see why this happened and if it is going to be a lasting end to the conflict.

Israel initiated this conflict, supposedly because of Iran's imminent ability to make nuclear weapons. This long planned attack was actually an effort to topple the government of Iran in a massive attack on the leadership of the country. It was successful in killing many of the leadership and also many in their scientific community. It was also designed to damage their communication and control and their air defense. It was successful and there were messages and speeches encouraging the citizens to rise up and overthrow the government. It became clear in a short time that this attack actually rallied support for the government of Iran. Iran was also able within 24 hours to reestablish command and control and begin a counter offensive with missle attacks on Israel. It appears that Israel hoped that the U.S. would quickly enter into this conflict, when it appeared they were winning.  

The Trump administration has been under extreme pressure from within the United States and Israel to attack Iran. Many were claiming that the government was weak and that there was little support for the government. It was claimed that a massive attack would cause an escalating collapse within the country. A very similar assessment of what would happen to Russia in such a crisis. It appears that Trump became convinced that Israeli intelligence had a better grasp of the analysis than the U.S. intelligence community. Trump has been apprehensive about getting involved in a drawn out war in the region as it would interfere with his bigger priorities both at home and on the world stage.

Iran has refused to take the bait numerous time and only responded in a limited way to numerous Israeli attempts to bait Iran into war. All with the hope that the U.S. would be forced to destroy Iran. Finally it appears that Israel made the decision to execute their long planned effort and gave Iran no other option but to respond. Below is a map showing the effects of the Iranian response on Israel. 

Sonar21.com

At the outset Iran sent massive numbers of drones and missiles that caused Israel to use large amounts of air Defense missiles, literally Billion of dollars of missiles. It soon became clear that Israel would soon become short of the required missiles and with the ports and airports closed it would soon become difficult to replace.  After some time, the number of missiles launched by Iran was reduced, but the percentage that hit, rose. After using up their obsolete and sometimes non warhead missiles they dipped into their more effective and larger missiles. some believe that at the rate things were going Israel would be in a very difficult position in a week or ten days. It was clear what was happening when Israel banned photos and videos from being taken. That's when the idea of a ceasefire became imperative.

Trump, who initially denied involvement in the attack, then when it was so successful, claimed partnership, then when intelligence showed where things were going, was all too willing to bomb the nuclear facilities, claim victory and a ceasefire.

As for Iran, they understood that if Israel's existence became threatened it would either draw in the U.S. or even possibly cause Israel to resort to nuclear weapons. Trump also offered some sanctions relief which he has since withdrawn.

Now, we are back to square one, some claiming the need to strike again, since the first strikes were not conclusive, from Israel, the domestic opponents and neocons. Trump would probably prefer to stay out, but the pressure is again going to be enormous.  Israel probably has some plan B strategy in mind. Iran is getting support from China with weapons and they may have made headway in world public opinion.  

Most believe that a resumption of war is very likely in the near future.

"That which doesn't kill you makes you stronger", Maybe?

 ADVOCATES FOR IRAN WAR ARE REGROUPING

EFFORTS TO SUCK U.S. INTO DESTROYING IRAN WILL CONTINUE

It is clear that Trump would like very much to declare victory in the Iran conflict and move on to much more critical items in his agenda. It may be a very difficult balancing act that he will need to navigate to not be lured into an extended war in Iran.  

Israel and its supporters are already regrouping and looking for a path to restart this conflict. While their military is overstretched and there is serious damage to their infrastructure, it is clear they feel that Iran is weakened and vulnerable to attack. The restraints on Israel may be from within and also U.S. public opinion is generally not in favor of a war in Iran. Trump may need a diversion to avoid being forced to resume the Iran war.

Iran in the meantime is purging any possible Israeli agents in the country, it is reported that over 800 arrests have been made and one can expect it will be a wide and deep dragnet for Mossad agents. Iran politically, at present, has been unified and strengthened. 

An issue is now appearing about the IAEA inspectors, who it has been revealed have used their ability to monitor Iran to pass security information to the U.S. and Israel. Many are now concerned that they have lost their credibility and effectiveness everywhere in the future. Iran's reluctance to again allow monitoring will, of course, be used as an excuse to refire the war.

Russia and China will be very likely assist in rebuilding Iran's anti-aircraft defenses and also political assistance in the international forum. Iran may have increased their world public opinion due to their restraint and Israel has lost their standing due to their methods and vicious attacks on public figures.

There are several factions that desire war with Iran. First, of course, is Israel which has portrayed Iran as the source of all their misfortune. Iran has countered that by being very restrained in its reactions to Israel's attempts to lure them into a response that will gain world support. Then there are the neocons who seem to advocate any war anywhere, often motivated by increased weapons spending and possible access to resources for profit. This would include the neocolonial forces in the U.K. and France whose economies are struggling without their colonial incomes for support. As their former colonies in Africa have been pushing them out they are looking for new sources of financial gain. Of course, all these are backed by international business that will also have access to these resources. Then there are the anti-Trumpers who anticipate a prolonged war in Iran will divert him from his goals for reforming government and moving to acceptinging a more co-existential foreign policy.

While the war is on a pause, the forces advocating war are working on many fronts to force a resumption of the conflict.

Is Israel safer now than in 2023?

 CAN ISRAEL OBTAIN PEACE BY MILITARY CONQUEST?

THEIR ROOTS SHOULD GIVE THEM THE ANSWER

Everyone understands the turning point in Israel's present policy as the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas.  The world shared their pain and their horror at what happened. The question is, are things now better due to the policies that were undertaken in reaction to that attack?

In 2023, the Abraham accords had been working to move the Arab world into normalizing relations with Israel. Saudi Arabia, a leader in that world, was about to normalize those relations with Israel. It would have been a giant step in that direction.

At the same time, Iran was in the process of improving relations with Saudi Arabia, not an alliance of Sunni, Saudi Arabia and Shia, Iran to make mischief in the region, but for the desire for economic cooperation and mutual prosperity.

At the same time Iran and Saudi Arabia were considering membership in the BRICS economic group and both would have been put under pressure to moderate their policies to be able to cooperate with the other members including Russia and China.

China was interested in massive cooperation and investment in Israel and was already a major factor in their economy.

While Iran has been labeled, the," Greatest supporter of Terrorism in the world", the label was more appropriate to be placed on Sunni, Saudi Arabia. Most all terrorist acts in Europe and the U.S. including 911, were funded by people in Saudi Arabia. Much of that changed when Mohammed bin Salman, became the de facto ruler of the Kingdom. He orchestrated a major purge of those funders of terrorism and made many reforms in the country. He is much more focused on cooperation and economic development in the region.

Hezbollah, supported by Iran, was moving to be more of a political party in Lebanon and was in fact the government in Lebanon.

Then there is Hamas, the elected government in the Gaza strip. Supported to some extent by Iran but it is unlikely that they were directly under the control of Iran. Hamas, with the changes occurring all around the region, was not in anyone's great favor and was most likely facing a future of irrelevancy. That all ended on Oct,7, 2023 with the attack on Israel. Hamas knowing the past policies of Israeli leadership may have performed yet another baiting of someone similar to the objectives of the 911 attack.

Israel's Mossad is often touted as the most effective intelligence in the world, so much so that many U.S. presidents have accepted their analysis over their own. Amazing that Hamas, could plan for year for an attack and Israeli intelligence was  caught off guard. I could go on with more, but this article is just an analysis of, Is Israel in a better position today than in 2023.

In the aftermath of this attack, Israel could not restrain its lust for revenge and kill multitudes times the number of Israelis' killed. The war on Hamas is still ongoing today, near 2 years, resulting in the death of near 60,000 people living in Gaza and insure the outrage of everyone in the region. Israel lost the greatest political opportunity in the world to gain the compassion and support of much of the world. They lost the opportunity to show their good faith and ask for the support of the world. The kind of support that could have isolated Hamas and possibly turned many to a more favorable image of Israel. The deaths in Gaza provided the excuse for Hezbollah, the Houthis and others to attack Israel. It is still going on even while Israel is declaring victory.

In contrast, Israel is now considered as the perpetrators of Genocide by much of the world, has diminished recognition by its neighbors, engaged in a perpetual attempt to insure their safety by military conflict and only by reliance on the United States and nuclear weapons is their existence insured. Economically they are declining, their population is decreasing as many are seeking to emigrate out, and it can be assumed, by the rhetoric out of Israel, it is going to continue. 

Their future cannot be insured by military might, they can be the greatest military power in the region, but still fail to survive by the costs inside, economically, politically and demographically.

I always refrain from quoting the Torah or the books of Moses in the Christian and Muslim world, but I suspect the answer to their dilemma is more there than in the faith in military might.

Trump has silenced the warmongers, at least for now.

 RESULTS OF ATTACK IRRELEVANT

HAS REGIME CHANGE BEEN CANCELED?

Obviously no one at this time understands what the results of the attack on Iran and the subsequent ceasefire will be in the long term. At least for now, Trump has fulfilled the desires of Netanyahu and the crowd advocating for an attack on Iran. He has fulfilled their demands and possibly kept the U.S. out of a protracted war with Iran. What has gone on behind the scenes between Iran, Russia, China and the U.S. may never be revealed, but it appears some kind of plan is in the works. 

At present, Iran, Israel and the U.S. are declaring victory. What all this means is still not very clear for the long term future of the region.

The Netanyahu plan was that an attack on Iran would inevitably require the assistance of the U.S. What transpired was that Trump watched and waited, instead of immediately joining in the attack on Iran. 12 days of nightly Iranian attacks were in fact depleting Israel's defensive ability and time was on Iran's side to cause severe damage to Israel's infrastructure and economic viability. Iran's leadership was seriously injured but it would take assistance from the U.S. for Israel to prevail in defeating Iran. The time was ripe for a ceasefire and the strike on Iran's nuclear facilities allowed Trump to declare victory and allow for an end of the hostilities, at least for now. Whether the facilities are completely destroyed, is now irrelevant, it appears there will not be any future U.S. attacks at this time.

It is no secret, that there was U.S. communications with Iran, probably through intermediaries, there was no resistance to the attack and everyone was evacuated and possibly some of its equipment. Iran communicated with the U.S. before its response attacks on U.S. bases, everyone was evacuated and no one was injured, face saving for Iran's domestic audience. Within hours a ceasefire was announced, amazing and reeks of some preconceived agreement. 

We can only assume that Iran has been given some assurances going forward. In the UN it is being debated, that according to international law, Iran has the right for peaceful use of nuclear energy, actually the same guidelines as the first agreement, between Iran and the U.S. In the future a UN vote may give the U.S. some cover to enact that agreement. We will have to see.

The reality is that Iran has been portrayed in much of the world as the victim in this affair, Israel coupled with the situation in Gaza has been seriously losing in the world public opinion and in the United States.

Israel's frustration with this long running conflict is understandable, and it is hoped some kind of better situation can be attained. New leadership in Israel may be the opportunity to seek real solutions for the long term, obviously the current path will most likely bring about the demise of the Israel experiment, as protracted war is unsustainable, economically, politically and militarily.