Russia and China's blended economic systems are working for them.

 COPYING U.S. SUCCESSES, PLUS INOVATION

U.S. PROVED THE VALUE OF ECONOMIC FREEDOM

I believe the U.S. constitution and the freedom it provided to its citizens is the time tested best system, if it is strictly followed. The reality is the U.S. system has been plagued with top down government control and central planning by bureaucratic and regulatory control. American cars may be built by independent companies but regulations severely regulate design and stifle innovation. Small business and entrepreneurship is almost made impossible by zoning and regulatory costs. The small foundries and machine shops have almost become extinct in this country. These were the business's that made rapid shifts to increased production possible in former times.

I don't fully understand all the polices of Russia's economic system, but it seems to be a 3 tiered system. At the top is government control of natural resources which provide capital to 2nd tier manufacturing companies which many are privately controlled. The 3rd tier is small business, retail and other individually owned business which it seems to be free to innovate and make their own decisions. It was interesting that many of these small business were able to quickly repurpose to make components for Russia's drone production. One making wooden propellers, others making the frames or wiring harnesses, often small business's with a handful of workers, very similar to what was possible in the U.S. in former times.  

In China, the Chinese Communist party is very much in control, but many of the businesses are free to innovate, make profits and their owners and workers to prosper. The party rule seems to be, you can make as much money as you want, but do not attempt to become involved in politics, the consequences can be severe. The party has copied the system of the U.S. in former times where originally the branches of the federal reserve were free to set interest rates and provide capital to business in their areas. That system in the U.S. has morphed into primarily funding the national debt. In China funding is available for innovative and growing companies.

While many believe that the Chinese are working at slave labor rates, the reality is this system, has in a short time, brought a huge number of its citizens out of poverty. The savings rate of Chinese average near 30%. While the U.S. has always been an example for many around the world, many third world countries are now looking at the progress and opportunities that are displayed by China and others.

While both countries have moved away from totalitarian communism, it has been evolutionary process that one can expect has not yet been completed. Much of what happens in these countries is also influenced by the real or perceived threats brought against them by outside forces.

In many ways western capitalism has moved more toward central planning by regulation and a blending of big business and government that traditionally was labelled fascist.  Big Government regulation requires big business to lobby to protect their interests with money and influence. Legislation can promote some business and eradicate others. I suspect the cost of government in the west is far higher than either of the former communist countries. When government is the biggest player in the country it never ends well.

While the internet has bypassed many of the costs and regulations in the U.S., it has been bright spot, allowing entrepreneurs to conduct business from their homes and garages in a fashion reminiscent of former times. I suspect that this is a world wide phenomenon. 

The reality is that economies of countries around the world are evolving at a quick pace and those who are hindered from innovation and adapting will fall along the wayside.

Russia to launch satellite based internet service.

 SIMILAR TO MUSKS, "STARLINK" 

WILL SATELITE BASED SYSTEMS DOMINATE IN THE FUTURE

Russia has announced that they have completed their testing phase of their satellite based internet system. They have announced the first satellites will be launched in December and within 2 years they will have 1200 satellites in space. It is expected it will be able to offer service to many remote areas and particularly in the global south. Of course, one can understand that Russia is vast and such a system will be very useful in connecting their country.

Starlink is now available in 140 countries and has over 6 million users, Its cost has been declining and one can expect that this approach will not only provide internet but entertainment, telephone and other information. It has both civilian and military capabilities. 

The Russian system will provide communications to Asia, Africa and other places now having limited communication systems. 

The move to streaming and other electronic communications may make cable and other wire type systems obsolete in the future, but there may be the risk of the ability to cut service very easily and quickly.

The Russian system is reported to be a laser based system that may be actually  more reliable than the present Starlink system, but not being an expert on these things we will surely see a debate about this in the future.

The people I know with Starlink view it very favorably and the system is compact,  and can be used during travel in multiple homes and remote locations. 

Russia has experience and technology with rocketry to efficiently put such a service in operation. They may partner with China to manufacture the home terminals in large quantities. It will be interesting if anyone else will want, or be able, to compete with these 2 systems that may dominate communications in the future.

Are Ukraine counter offensives sustainable?

 UKRAINE  CONFICT  INTENSIFIES 

SHIFTING TROOPS TO STOP RUSSIAN ADVANCES 

For the last year, Russia has been in the process of advancing in all areas of the eastern front. Ukraine has slowly been pushed back and has been in danger of effectively being cut off in many of these areas. The situation is dire in the Pokrovsk area. In recent day Ukraine has shifted troops from other areas to slow and even retake some of the ground in this area. They have also moved troops to strengthen the Zaporizhzhia area. It seems some of these troops are also their elite troops who have been in the Kiev area. It may be a desperate attempt to slow and neutralize the Russian advance.

Recently it has been reported that Russian reconnaissance squads have crossed the Dnieper river in the Kherson region and found little resistance, obviously the troops from this region have been moved elsewhere. Russia does not hesitate to withdraw to defensive positions if counter attacked, but usually brings up additional resources that eventually prevail. It is expected that Russia is going to cross the Dnieper and reopen the Kherson attack and threaten Odessa, which would require Ukraine moving troops that they do not have.

At the same time Russia has made massive aerial attacks on munition depots and energy supplies all across Ukraine. It appears that Russia is not going to engage in Blitzkrieg attacks or defeat Ukraine with overwhelming attacks. One must conclude that they do not expect to militarily defeat every major city, but just keep up the war of attrition until Ukraine can no longer resist. While this could happen in the near future, interviews of Russian military leaders expect that they may be fighting for another year. This would fulfill the Russian objective of making the  Ukrainian army non threatening in the future.

It is unlikely that Ukraine can replace its troops, nor can NATO keep up with replacing the loss of equipment and supplies. The European economies are steadily deteriorating and neutral countries are unwilling to commit economic suicide to weaken Russia. Then there is the reality that other BRICS countries, especially China, will not sit by, even if defeating Russia would be possible. Escalation will bring a response that may be far worse than what is happening now. It is time to end this for the sake of the poor people of Ukraine, Russia and the world.

 

 

Arab and Islamic leaders meet in Doha.

 REPRESENTITIVES OF 57 COUNTRIES MEET TO DISCUSS ISRAEL

ASIAN, MIDDLEAST, AFRICA AND FAR EAST LEADERS

Yesterday an emergency summit was held in Doha, Qatar prompted by the Israeli attack on Doha, Qatar. These attendees were made of members of Arab League, Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the Gulf Cooperation council. While the complete cooperation statement has not yet been officially released, it seems they have agreed to jointly increase economic pressure on Israel. Some of the major members are expected to have private meetings to form some sort of joint defense agreement, similar to NATO. 

Much of the emphasis was on the continuing plight of the citizens in Gaza and the general chaos and instability caused by this ongoing crisis. Contrary to the existing narrative, while many are not supporters of an Israeli state, they are not advocating the destruction of Israel as has been the situation in decades past. It is clear that like most governments today they are emphasizing economic cooperation and mutual prosperity. The ongoing crisis in Gaza is disrupting those objectives for everyone in the region.

The focus was intense and without redeeming narrative on Benjamin Netanyahu and his government, especially since Netanyahu has publicly stated that Israel will continue attacks on any nation that harbors Hamas. So far, no one is advocating military action against Israel, but they all desire some kind of conclusion to the ongoing crisis. Diplomatic relations between these attendees and Israel are now at an all time low.

Before the Hamas organized attack on Israel 2 years ago, relations may have been at an all time high.  Hamas was becoming increasingly irrelevant and garnered little support by these countries. Even Iran was moving to a more main street position by improving relations with others in the region and focusing more on economic prosperity. That all changed after the Hamas attack and the situation in Israel may be the worst for the state of Israel in its history. The response by Israel has been more damaging to Israel than the attack itself and there is no end in sight.

While some want to declare this situation as an organized and cooperative assault on Israel, all parties attacked Israel after their incursion and destruction of Gaza. It seems now that all parties are committed and cannot find an off ramp. Attacking those who attempt at some sort of negotiations is a bad policy and cannot help end this situation.

Any objective observer must conclude that Israel is in a far more dire situation now than they were before the Hamas attack. Doubling down will not make anything better.

Trump, don't count on US to aid war.

 CAN TRUMP AVOID PRESSURE FOR MORE WAR?

CAN NATO COMPLY WITH TRUMP'S DEAL?

In the last few days we have seen the possibility of escalating war increase, both in Ukraine and Israel. In Europe we see hysteria over unarmed Russian drones that entered Polish and Romanian airspace. Russia volunteered to have meetings with the Polish military to discuss this, but Poland refused. It is still possible that this is all a false flag event engineered by Ukraine, but if so, also encouraged by NATO members. 

We also see riots in the UK and France, who often talk about troops and war, but are not likely to be any position to actually bring it to reality. One must suspect that they are covertly hoping that they can entice Poland to put troops in Ukraine, they would offer verbal encouragement. Then there is the push to rearm Germany, a dangerous effort for many reasons. I suspect that they would also hope to give support in case of war with Russia. The reality is that there will not be an escalation of the war in Ukraine without a U.S. commitment and it does not look that is going to happen.

Trump poo-pooed the hysteria over unarmed drones, then offered his deal for more sanctions on Russia. He told NATO that he is willing to increase sanctions and tariffs on Russian oil buyers, if NATO members will stop buying all oil originating in Russia, I suspect that they economically cannot. They would also have to put 100% tariffs on China, again an economic impossibility. It is clear, Trump has no intention of being dragged into a war with Russia. 

In the middle east, the Arab counties, including Egypt, are meeting today and it seems they are going to agree to form a cooperative army to counter Israel's expanded strikes on other countries, in its effort to defeat Hamas. The latest strike on Qatar seems to have been sort of the last straw. Trash talking by Israel against Turkey and Egypt have increased tensions with both counties and the imminent attack on Iran may very well unify the opposition to Israel. The reality is that Hamas is not popular with any of these countries, but there populations are increasingly outraged at the GAZA situation. Israel has lost even its weak support from Egypt and Jordan, and it seems the rest of the world, except the U.S.. It may be that Israel needs to change direction or it is possible that any further escalation will be met with unified military action.

Again, without U.S. commitment, Israel will need to change some of its policies, if not its government.  I suspect that Trump understands that an escalated mid east war will most likely end in a world economic crisis and possibly nuclear confrontation. Not to mention, an end to his vison of a reinvigorated America and even his presidency. 

Friday's thoughts on the past week.

 U.S. TO LOSE INVESTMENT DUE TO ISRAEL'S ATTACK

RUSSIA'S DRONES DID NOT TARGET POLAND

Unrest in France continues even after resignation of the PM and replacement. The problems in France are not going to be solved by replacing another PM. They could be lessened with a serious election change of direction, but it seems elections in Europe are more symbolic than real, this applies to the UK and Germany. We can expect escalation as their economies continue to weaken.

The great headlines concerning Russian Drones in Polish airspace are mostly just hopes by Ukraine of NATO intervention. These were decoy drones without munitions and were most likely sent off course as result of electronic warfare. One can expect that Ukraine may also at some time salvage Russian drones and then use them for a false attack.

It appears that Qatar is considering cancelling over $ 1 trillion in promised U.S. investment due to Israel's attack on their territory that caused the death of some of their citizens. It is reported that the UK refueled Israel's jets in midair and also oversaw this operation. It is understood that the U.S. knew of this and allowed the use of U.S. controlled airspace. Netanyahu is unapologetic and claims they will attack their enemies anywhere they choose. Most of the governments in the region have been attempting to be restrained in this ongoing conflict, but their populations are becoming increasingly enraged, sooner or later we can only expect escalation. 

In the Charlie Kirk assassination, one has to wonder how someone can enter a university building with a rifle and move to a roof top unnoticed. One can only conclude that this was planned for some time and the rifle may have been prepositioned with the help of university personnel. There are reports of coordinated diversions in the crowd that also gave the suspect time to escape.

The rumors of foreign players are everywhere, It is reported that Kirk is on Ukraine's infamous hit list, due to his criticism of Ukraine. Tucker Carlson and Scott Ritter are other Americans on this list.

Israel is also being talked about due to Kirk's connecting Epstein to Mossad and his criticism of Israeli policies. Only a real arrest of a suspect will end these speculations. If this is a domestic inspired shooter he will most likely be arrested. If it is a foreign inspired and directed one, he is most likely no longer in the country. If no arrest is made, it will cause unlimited speculation and conspiracy theories, possibly more damaging than even the tragic and despicable event. 

Silencing the opposition escalates.

 ASSASSINATION BECOMING NEW FORM OF SILENCING

DESPERATION WHEN LOSING THE DEBATE

Yesterday was a sad day, as we witnessed the assassination of a young man who appealed to the younger generation by encouraging an intellectual debate rather than the usual appeal of emotional reactions. Charlie Kirk's murder is an escalation of the ongoing attempts to stifle debate on college campuses.  The hegemony of the left on college campuses, which began in the 1950's and 60's, is under assault. The reality is the left is losing the debate and is desperate to silence those who challenge their supremacy by any means possible. 

While the assassin is still at large, we can assume this was not the usual lone deranged gunman.  The planning and likely assistance needed, at this time signifies, a more organized effort. It reminds us that we still have had little revealed about the Butler shooter and the other effort to assassinate Trump last year. This is while Trump is now head of the government.

The movement of the younger generation to a more conservative political position is not only happening on college campuses but because of the younger generation is rejecting previous sources of information. The younger generation most likely has never subscribed to a newspaper, a periodical or watches cable TV.  They are far more likely to be listening to or streaming Joe Rogan, Tucker Carlson, Jordon Peterson, Lex Friedman or many others who have far more watchers, than CNN, Fox or MSNBC. 

Most of these personalities also engage in live, in person, debates and speeches, a forum that makes them vulnerable to those who desire to engage in violent silencing. We can assume that those who desire to silence these people will be further encouraged by what has happened yesterday. Only time will tell if this type of silencing will work in their favor or further strengthen the appeal of the alternative sources of information.

Some of the attempts to control and silence debate on social media have been reversed. It has been proven that the FBI, CIA and foreign intelligence actively pursued such control in the last few years and we can only assume forces are still at work often by misinformation and disinformation in attempts to make the truth much harder to find. This is now a worldwide phenomenon, as the world is the process of a historical geopolitical change.

While yesterday's event hit home, we often don't take notice to the assassination attempts of the Slovak leader Fico, Khan in Pakistan and others in South America and the current 17 deaths of political opponents in Germany. Many of these attempts are encouraged by foreign states to further their political objectives. It seems Ukraine has connections to the Fico assassin and the potential golf course shooter of Trump The assassination of political leaders is now the preferred modus operandi of the state of Israel, who is willing to strike in any country in the world.

I expect these precedents will only be retaliated to, or copied by others, as those who have had a position of power are in the process of losing that power.