This pandemic is a world changing event

SOME THINGS WILL NEVER BE THE SAME

EVENTS WILL SHAPE THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS GENERATION

My parents, who were adults during the depression and World War 2, were permanently changed by those events. They were very frugal, avoided debt and found pleasure in simple everyday activities. They were strong on family and personal responsibility. They had been tested and their whole life was influenced by the events of that time. 

This Virus pandemic is going to change many for the rest of their lives. It is also going to bring into review many things that will now be permanent changes in the future. 

It is likely that business meetings that require flying around the country or even the world will be replaced by video and telephone conferencing. It is unlikely that they will return to the former level. Many companies were seeking to downsize this activity and now it will become reality.

It is unlikely that we will see a return to huge ocean liners with thousands of people on board, often advertised at low prices. Expect to see smaller less cramped and much more exclusive and more expensive replacements.

It will take a long time for international travel to return to past levels. It may be a boom to travel within the USA. It is likely with the elimination of much business travel, it will require fewer flights with increased pricing. Weak airlines will not survive this event.

Many restaurants will never reopen. It is always a difficult business, often a romantic endeavor, usually not a great profit-making business. Those with debt and high overhead will not be able to weather the storm. It will take years and maybe never to return to its former volume of business.

People may actually slow down and reevaluate their lives. Do the kids really need to play 4 sports? Maybe many will find satisfaction in their homes and lose the need for so much outside stimulus. It can be fun to cook at home. Many are going to be amazed at how much money they now have by eating out less.

Dependence on foreign made products will require some new thinking. International trade is a good thing, but there are times when it is not a good thing to be unable to supply your basic needs. It is in the interest of National security to have the ability to quickly produce the basic necessities of survival. We do have a strong food and energy producing ability, but many other necessities are no longer made here. We can hope that that concern is addressed in a rational and objective way, not with cries of racism and xenophobia.

These are just some of the possible changes for the future. The virus will go away, but its effects may be felt for decades.

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New York and New Jersey need Federal quarantine now.

SHUT DOWN TO PROTECT THE SAFETY OF THE REST OF COUNTRY

ONLY ESSENTIAL SUPPLIES TO ENTER, NO TRAFFIC IN OR OUT

While much damage has already taken place, it is not too late to shut down all traffic into and out of New York and New Jersey. These states have not been able to contain the spread in their states and it has already led to the spread of the virus from Pennsylvania to Florida.

If there is question about the authority of the President to make those decisions, then limited martial law should be declared. All traffic, cars, buses, trains and air traffic should be closed for at least the next 2 weeks. The exodus out of these areas will exasperate the attempts to control the spread of this virus around the country.

It would be very easy to take control of the bridges over the Delaware river. Inspect all Trucks going into and coming out and stop all other traffic. Only Trucks who have delivered goods to the designated area would be allowed out. This area should be shut down until there is progress made with the spread of the disease. This action could be enforced by military police units.These actions should have been taken 2 weeks ago.

It seems California and Washington have been effective in dealing with this pandemic. New York and New Jersey have not. The flow of the population out of New York and New Jersey could very well increase into a flood in the next few days. The increase in cases in eastern Pennsylvania can be directly attributed to traffic out of these areas. It could become much worse if not stopped now.

The borders with these states should be completely closed, until the governors of those states set up a quarantine line around the worst area. If they are successful, then areas in south Jersey and western New York could be relaxed.

Stores should be shut down during the night, so that restocking and cleaning could be done when customers are not in the store. There are already signs that some distributors are close to refusing to entering these areas, if this happens, this crisis will explode into another dimension all together. The governors should be encouraging this action not protesting, if this situation cascades into the next level they will completely lose control.

It is drastic action, but it could become a far more dangerous world if not addressed immediately.

Biblical food laws are still a good guide today.

MOSES INSTRUCTED THE ISRAELITES IN MANY FOOD AND SANITATION RULES

MANY THIRD WORLD COUNTRIES WOULD DO WELL TO TAKE NOTICE

While Moses handed down to the sons of Israel a list of rules to regulate human actions between each other, these are actually the basis for our current system of laws. The same definitions as the Christian western countries have been practicing for years. There was also a quite detailed law concerning food and sanitation. Many of these laws have been adopted by first world counties for many decades.

I am not going to go into the details of these laws, but they would be a good standard for today that would eliminate a lot of the problems we see today. Sanitation laws are not being followed in many third world countries and seem to be declining even in this country. 

Food laws forbade the eating of many types of living things, reptiles, rodents, bats and  all carrion eaters, like vultures, crows etc. It also instructed in the preference for certain animals with a certain digestive system, like sheep, goats etc. It also forbade contact with many of these animals. If contact should occur, washing and quarantine was required. 

It gave good instruction in proper cooking

There are many directions to wash or purify oneself after certain contact with others or certain situations. Quarantine was usually for 7 days. Much of the things we are being told to do today by respected scientists.

Moses never gave the why, just facts that are relevant eternally.

Most will reject these instructions, because of there origins. With an objective view we would see that even after 3500 years, these rules still can apply in a positive way for the people today.

What have we learned? What can we expect?

CORONAVIRUS WILL BE WITH US FOR SEVERAL SEASONS

WE WILL NEED TO ADJUST AND LIVE WITH IT

The Coronavirus has up until now been most prevalent in the Northern Hemisphere. While there have been cases in the Southern Hemisphere they have been minimal. That is expected to change as the southern Hemisphere enters their winter season. There will likely need to be assistance given to those in the south. There is evidence that this virus thrives on cool and dry conditions. The humidity lowers in the winter and rises in the summer. It is predicted that this change will have a significant difference in the worst affected areas after June. 1. 

Self quarantine and personal distancing along with all the other guidelines will need to become a long  term habit. This virus will likely diminish in the Northern Hemisphere in around 8 weeks. It could very well be earlier than that if things go well. It is very likely that it will not disappear completely and will become a threat to re-emerge in the fall. It is unlikely that a vaccine will be available on a large scale by this coming fall. There may be a better way of treatment. 

We should be in a much better position to deal with it in wave 2. People will have adjusted their behavior and it will be possible to better control an outbreak. 

We will soon be able to start a new kind of testing, similar to polling, all around the country to see how many people have had this disease and recovered. This is accomplished by looking for anti-bodies in the tested population and then calculating the results. This will give us a good idea were we stand.

After the second wave there should be a vaccine available and that should diminish the effects of this virus in the future. Hopefully it will not mutate on an annual basis like the flu. 

Next week there is going to be an evaluation of what is going on. New York is the worst area in the country, but many other places, if they shift to a containment and quarantine system should be able to start lifting of some restrictions with strict monitoring. Outdoor construction, while observing the guidelines, should be able to continue. Many other activities, with the guidelines, should be able to be allowed. Blanket shut downs are not sustainable for any length of time and in many areas is an overreaction.

We now know much more than we knew 4 weeks ago and we will know much more in another 4 weeks. This seems to be the prevalent view of the future outlook, it could be better and it could be worse. We will need to go on with life with good practices that will likely be the norm in the future. 

2020 U.S. industry does not resemble 1940's.

SPECIALIZATION AND GLOBAL DEPENDENCE

MOST RAW MATERIALS ARE MADE OUT OF THE COUNTRY

We hear the complaints of politicians, media know nothings and citizens, asking why we cannot up production overnight of anything we desire. Many references are made to WW2 when the U.S. quickly ramped up production of war materials to supply much of the World War effort.

Today's industrial capacity is only a shadow of what it was in the 1940's.

Some examples, many complain we cannot get enough surgical masks, aprons, masks and visors. In 1940 the United States grew the cotton, manufactured thread and fabric of every kind, dyed the material and warehoused large quantities of these materials. We also had sewing factories in every town, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Northampton had thousands of women sewing everyday. It took only days to convert to sewing uniforms, medical protective equipment, back-packs and whatever was needed. 

Today we no longer have any of those factories, we grow very little raw material and doubt that any thread or fabric is manufactured in this country. We still have some clothing manufactures which have very limited capacity, most design the product, and then it is made out of the country. While 3M can make masks, I am willing to bet the elastic and the fabric is made outside the country. Any increase in demand will result in instant shortages.

As for manufacturing of products, every machine shop in the country could begin change over to war good in days, Singer sewing machine, and Remington-Rand, made handguns and rifles. Everyone has similar equipment, lathes, drill presses and machine tools. Most of those tools were shipped out of the country to third world countries in the 1990,s. Today we have specialized equipment designed to make a specialized product. Most of the equipment is for low volume specialized manufacturing and research and development, actual manufacturing on a large scale is sent out of the country.

As far as ordering a company to switch to a product that they are not equipped to produce, it is a joke. We can order them to do do it, that does not mean that they can. Some companies like GM and GE had a history of making ventilators, they may have the dies and tools stored somewhere and can be put into motion. It will take a considerable amount of time. Can they acquire the materials? They will not be actually producing these things in the very near future.

The decisions to move much production out of the country was less regulation, less risk of owning plant and equipment with the accompanying liability. Labor cost were not the only issue, but excessive regulation and over the top union rules.

We can be thankful that our energy and food networks are still mostly made in U.S.A. They are reasonably priced and available. A testament to good old American capitalism.

We will have to get buy on what we have. We will have to make do with what is available in this country. We may be able to put Y's on ventilators to service 2 people at once. Maybe not too good, but maybe better than nothing. Maybe we can jury rig a hand machine with a volunteer to pump it, who knows. Reality is, "You cant always get what you want".

New relaxed guidelines coming in weeks.

QUARANTINE THE ELDERLY AND AT RISK

EVERYONE WILL EVENTUALLY GET THE VIRUS

Yesterday, we saw a glimpse of the next phase of this Pandemic response. It was voiced by the President and by governor Coumo of New York. The end of the shut down will be coming within a couple of weeks. The end of the 15 day, slow the spread,  program will be on Mar. 29. The statistics are then going to be reviewed and analyzed and a decision is going to be made as to how and when to start normalizing the economy.

This will most likely keep intact the good practices of hand washing, no contact and safe distancing for the general population. 

Vulnerable populations will be encouraged to self-quarantine, and their families should continue to keep their distance. They can assist by bringing supplies and whatever is needed. 

Foreign air travel restrictions will likely be continued for some time.

Hot areas will continue to be quarantined and restricted, but other areas will be free to go back to business as usual.

Hospitals in affected areas will continue to be expanded and supplied as necessary.

Schools should be re-opened in those areas not designated a hot spot.

This may turn into a rolling system, as the virus moves across the country. Hopefully it will weaken as the weather warms.

This virus will run through the population for some time, the idea is to protect the vulnerable and treat the infected just as any other communicable disease. We can not shut the economy down for possibly years to contain a disease that will be no more devastating than the annual influenza. Once this virus has moved through the population most will be immunized.

There is a balance between protecting the population and protecting the economic survival of the country. The government cannot support the population for an extended period.

Targeted response rather than wholesale shut down.

RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE EXPANDED IN HOT AREAS

MANY ACTIVITIES CAN SAFELY CONTINUE

Travel restrictions should be expanded in New York city and other areas of high risk. Many people are leaving New York for eastern Pa., up-state New York, and wherever they can go out of New York. This activity will just spread the virus to the adjoining states. Those heavily infected areas should be shut down, no flights in or out, no travel except necessary supplies. 

At the same time it is not necessary to stop outdoor construction work and other outdoor activities. Shutting down state parks were people could easily keep a safe distance from each other and walk, hike etc is an over reaction.

The media is pushing the idea of a complete national shut down. These decisions need to be made in a rational way. What applies to New York city does not need to be inflicted on Tulsa Oklahoma or many other parts of the country. At the same time air travel is continuing into and out of New York, California and Washington state. These hot areas should be quarantined. Other places for now would do well to observe the standard policies of social distancing.

This is a very large country and the governors of these states are in the best position to make those decisions. That's why they are called governors. 

While the health crisis is the most pressing issue, the health of the economy needs to be a large consideration. The damage to the economy could possibly cause more death and destruction than the virus if not attended to.

The reality of the fantasy world that many Americans are living in has now come to the forefront. The inability to understand the basics of manufacturing processes and distribution is now evident in the daily complaints of citizens, politicians and the media. The educated know nothings of common necessities of life. 

We have the greatest retail and food production and distribution system the world has ever seen. When you walk into your favorite food market and have at your disposal every possible thing that you could desire, it is truly amazing. It is offered at truly very low prices in the scheme of human existence. These markets work on large volumes and small mark ups. We should all be very thankful.

When I hear people complain about prices and the methods of production, it is their ignorance of the very basic knowledge of what it takes for human survival. They complain about oil companies that make transportation and heat in their homes possible. All they have to do is turn the key and the dial on the thermostat. We now have a large part of the population that are spoiled and have lost their ability to maintain themselves. They no longer have the knowledge to sustain themselves and have no respect for those who have made it possible for their very survival.

While the inconvenience and temporary shortages of this present crisis are just an inconvenience, it will be another matter when the time comes that electric is lost for a month or food production system is disabled. Every American should daily give thanks for the system we have.

Aid now, stimulus later

CONGRESS SHOULD CRAFT TARGETED AND WELL THOUGHT OUT PLAN

DEBIT CARDS, NOT CHECKS

Congress is now negotiating a plan to keep the economy from collapsing from the restrictions being enforced to combat the Coronavirus pandemic. This is an appropriate response to a unique situation that has been mostly caused by appropriate government action. This should be a two part response with the immediate first part aimed at aid to the unemployed and affected businesses.

The first part concerning the unemployed should be carried out by the existing state unemployment funds. These funds should be in good financial condition after several years of record unemployment rates. These funds could be supplemented and augmented payments with additional money from the federal government. The infrastructure is already in place and ready to go. 

The other immediate need is help those businesses forced to shut down. This would be restaurants, aviation and cruise ship business and also others in the effected states. This could take the form of debt and mortgage payments and overhead costs until these restrictions are lifted. This would be for several months and could be extended month by month.

The next part would be a stimulus package. This should not be implemented until the restrictions are lifted and business is allowed to resume. Throwing stimulus money into an economy that is shut down would be a inefficient way of creating a stimulus to the economy.

This should take the form of a debit card with a 60 day expiration. Spend it in 60 days or lose it. Rather than 1 large infusion, send out smaller infusions every 30 or 60 days, until the economy gets going. This could have similar restrictions as access cards and important data would be acquired as to its effects. If people feel that they don't want it, they can just let it expire. 

Congress should not feel they have to act in a rushed and panicked way. Do the first part to aid workers and business, then prepare for the stimulus when it will most be needed and be most efficiently used.

They have it right in sending money directly to citizens, rather than sending it to state governments that in the past have used the money to pay government workers and delayed using the money for years. It did not create the stimulus that was needed.

The economy is fundamentally strong. These measures should prevent the health crisis turning into an economic crisis.

Media continues stoking panic and back benching.

HOW ABOUT SOME UNITY AND HONEST REPORTING

ONLY POLITICAL FOOLS BELIEVE THIS CRISIS WILL KILL TRUMP'S RE-ELECTION

The big story the media started pushing yesterday was that the government had contingency plans for a crisis lasting 12 to 18 months. The government has contingency plans for everything, from nuclear war, large scale terrorist attacks, an internet collapse, or an electrical grid failure, I could go on and on. Every indication is this crisis will be over in several months. While no one knows for sure, it is irresponsible to make this revelation a top story.

This started with CNN and has been kept going by the New York times and others. It is disgraceful that they continue to push this false narrative. They truly do deserve a label of "FAKE NEWS" At the least they deserve to be reprimanded in a public way.

MSNC's Miki Brezinski stated this AM that the Trump administration should have been buying supplies in the Beginning of December 2019. That their slow response was why there are shortages of some materials in the health care industry. FACT, China 's authority's were notified that there was problem on Dec. 27. 2019. They began their lock down on Jan. 23, 2019. We discontinued flight's from China on Jan. 29, 2019. More "FAKE NEWS"

We hear reporters who are incredulous that there should be shortages of medical supplies and also consumers good. They are mostly all, young, have no common knowledge of what it takes to increase manufacturing and distribution, especially when the whole world is vying for the same products. With on time supplying we no longer have warehouses full of goods. It takes time to ramp up production and to distribute things. Many products are manufactured overseas and their local demand is going to be fulfilled first.

Sadly we have large numbers of people who never had a job in the private sector, let alone any where close to a manufacturing business. It is distasteful to be in any business that people would use their hands to actually produce things. Many have been provided with all the comforts they desire by their parents and expect that when there is a need the government should have it at their disposal immediately. Immature children telling us how things should be.

Fools in more ways than one. They also believe that the more the economy crashes, the more people who are inconvenienced, the more that die and suffer, the slimmer the chances of Donald Trump being re-elected. Again their knowledge of history and human nature is just another example of a  narrow and immature point of view.

Good time for reflection and re-evaluation.

USE TIME TO FOCUS ON PRIORITIES AND RE-EVALUATE LIFE

GOOD TIME TO MAKE POSITIVE CHANGES AND DECISIONS

While we now have been forced into a change of lifestyle, we can make this a positive experience to look at what we have been doing in our life and make changes that can be beneficial. This can apply to  our personal lives and relationships or our business plan.

For a long time society has been forced into a routine of hectic activity. Many people have lost the ability or the self-discipline to set aside a period of time for introspection and re-evaluation. Often this only happens with a crisis, such as divorce, loss of job, or a health problem. In the past many people observed a sabbath whether Saturday or Sunday, it was intended to be such a time, to give rest to or bodies, release built up stress or just meditation about the direction and course we are on. Those days seem to have pretty much been replaced by continuous activity, as if our lives have been programmed to fit a schedule, a calendar, a clock, everyday 24/ 7.

Now that it seems we are going to forced to spend more time at home and possibly less time at work, we can use this time in a positive way to spend more time with the kids, actually being parents, rather than chauffeurs and entertainment providers. More time for conversation, and get to know our families in a better way.

Besides this it may be time to do those put off choirs, that room that needs painting, all those little thing we have been putting off. We can surely have a feeling of accomplishment right at home. 

If in business it may be time to re-examine your business plan. How can you improve efficiency. How can you adapt to a possibly changing world.

This crisis may very well change many things permanently. Business meetings may never return to the level of the past. With today's technology it is not necessary to require all this travel and expense. It most cases it can be replaced with telephone and video conferencing.

While online sales have been increasing every year, this may be the beginning of the end of many brick and mortar stores.

It will accelerate changes that have been underway for some time. It will be a time of opportunity for some and a time of change for others.  

We have to make the best of a bad situation, it is a lose,lose situation, but there are many positive possibilities if we keep a positive attitude and use our ability to adapt to a changing environment.  

We can come out of this crisis, stronger and better. Just say a nice thing to everyone you meet, converse with and to all your family members each day.

Coronavirus timeline: China, Italy, U.S.

U.S. INFECTION RATES BETTER THAN MOST UP TO NOW

NEW CASES DECLINE IN EARLY INFECTION COUNTRIES

The coronavirus was first reported in a 55 year old on Nov. 17, 2019 in Hubei province China. Most of this early timeline has been back tracked to come to these conclusions. It then turned up at the end of December in Wuhan, China, a city of 11 million. It was traced to an open food market in the city, but it is doubtful that is the origin. 

It is believed to have originated in a bat, and then transmitted to a Pangolin a mammal similar to a armadillo. Then of course transmitted to humans. 

China reported 27 cases by Dec. 15,  60 cases by DEC. 20. Officials were notified Dec. 27. by Dr. Zhang Jixian, then 180 cases. Jan. 23, Wuhan was locked down and a quarantine was employed. 

By March 13, there were 81,000 cases and 3213 deaths. New cases reported in last day, 36. There have been days when reported new numbers has been in single digits. It appears that the worst is past in China. It appears to be around a 60 day period until a decline.

Italy had first case in late January, first death,  Feb. 22 with 60 cases reported.  Today, 24,700 case and 1800 deaths.  An explosion in cases and deaths. A case rate of 409 per million. This is the highest rate in the world.

The first case reported in the U.S. was in Washington state on Jan. 20, 2020,  A ban on travel from China was enacted Jan. 31, 2020. Also all travelers who came in before this date were to self quarantine. Feb. 29, travel banned from Italy and S.. Korea. Mar. 1 first death in Washington state. As of today 3802 cases, 69 deaths. 122 new cases today. It appears by comparing to other counties experience we are now at the beginning of the most vulnerable period. We could possibly see relief near May 1. The U.S. case rate is 11.5 per million.

No one knows how long or how many people will be affected. but we have held our case level down quite well so far. While we enacted restrictions on travel from China early on, the disease traveled around the world and we received east coast infections from Europe. While this is a bad result it may have just shortened the time line some.

Many are concerned this is a contrived reaction for some political purposes.  It may not be the case. The problem we have is the credibility of the media has been severely damaged. They have politicized everything to such an extent that most everyone is now suspicious of their motives. It continues until this day, attempting to place blame on the Trump administration for everything they can. Its time they put aside this continued attempt to damage Trump and thereby damage the country. 

It is a fact that, cooperation with calls for restrictions on contact and travel have been ignored by many because they do not believe what they are being told. When the citizens are subjected to years of false information, Russian collusion etc.and almost a daily story to attack this administration, we have a cynical population who questions the motives of what is being reported.

It is clear that the media has attempted to create a panic situation and when officials attempt to calm people, they are accused of minimizing the danger.

Everyone should put aside the politics and work together to restore confidence and a return to normal life as soon as possible.