Ukraine on hold, Iran first.

 TRUMP VIOLATES "LINDSEY GRAHAM" LAW

WHAT A TANGLED WEB BEING WEAVED

 

Friday, Trump announced an agreement with Russia to sell diesel fuel to the US. A deal that was worked out earlier and a tanker actually left Russia on September 22, just 4 days after Trump signed Lindsey "only good Russian is a dead Russian" Graham law that mandated severe sanctions on any one buying Russian oil. China, India and others ignored the sanctions and it seems so did Donald Trump. Is this now the end of anyone taking seriously sanctions in the future. That may be the only real good result of this deal.

 

One has to wonder about a few things, What did Russia get in return for this accommodation?  How is Russia being paid, in Dollars, Rubles, Yuan or gold? Are Russian assets frozen in the US being released? Has the US stopped giving targeting and intelligence to Ukraine? While Russia could use the money, there is no doubt this deal was not about money. 

 

We see Trump offering Russia all kinds of carrots concerning trade with the US.  Does Russia really believe that Trump can be trusted to keep any promised agreement? We must assume there is some sort of immediate transaction that is not based on future promises.

 

We can also assume that Trump hopes to drive a wedge between Russia, China and Iran, particularly Iran. We also see Trump offering China future trade rewards with his recent meetings with US business leaders attending meetings in China and in Washington.  We can assume that the sacrifice called for is Iran, both by Russia and China. 

 

This oil deal may hope to relieve the results of the upcoming hostilities with Iran, and the hope is that after Iran is destroyed, then Russia and then China will be on the menu, in that order.  I suspect that lines are busy between China, Russia and Iran.

 

 

 

 

 

Mid-east war expanding into regional conflict.

 LOOKING FOR WILLING FIGHTERS EVERYWHERE

PAID FIGHTERS VS DEFENDERS OF THEIR HOMELAND

 

While the war with Iran is on hold due to a dilemma of no good options, attempts to expand the war into a regional conflict is another option that will not yield any good results. 

 

While it is still not clear why Saudi Arabia thought it was good idea to go to war with Ansar Allah or the Houthi, it is clear they are in desperate need for help. Pleading to the Americans, the French, British, Egypt, Israel and now even Syria, it is a humiliating circus for the richest kingdom in the region. while it is reported that Pakistan may be rising to the call, we will see how hard they want to fight and die in Yemen.

 

While Saudi Arabia is rich, or at least was, until this 7 month war began bleeding that wealth in many ways. Having spent billions on US war machines it still needs willing warm bodies to go to Yemen and risk dying. Many people will do many despicable things for money, but when it come to dying money is never worth it.

 

While the US and the gulf nations have been paying fighters for years, often they were incentivized by Ideology, or the spoils of war. Fighting in Yemen and even in Iran creates ideological conflicts and in Yemen in particular few spoils, only hardship and death. War planes with bombs are a little removed from the real dying, but ground war is real war, hot, dirty, unpredictable, with often terrible odds of surviving. 

 

We suspect the Yemen war is either the hope of luring Iran to their defense or just a prelude to another round with Iran. It is clear that he next attack on Iran will be intense, it is also clear that it is likely to pull the plug on the world economy, an exceptionable risk for a small minority, but most likely not for most of the world. The repercussion of a resumption of the Iran war might spread a regional war to a global war that will possibly not spare any country inestimable risks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North Korea, relic of the past or a glimpse of the future.

 OWNING NOTHING AND BEING HAPPY?

WILL THIS BE THE MODEL FOR MODERN SURVEILLANCE STATE 

 

You tube provides insight on the what many foreign countries are like, particularly those that we will never be able to see. There have been several podcasts by those that have traveled to North Korea. Travel to North Korea is limited to just a few countries and there are plenty of restrictions. Below is what has been portrayed by visitors to the country. I would speculate that North Korea is the only pure Communist country in today's world. 

 

Travelers to North Korea are restricted to travel  with groups of other travelers and are accompanied by guides. It seems they are only able to travel to major cites that are modern and well developed, so they are mostly restricted to seeing what they will allow. Life in rural areas and other cities may be far different. 

 

Housing, Health care and education are all free and everyone get some sort of a food allowance. Single people live with their parents, upon marriage the new couple gets their own housing and as they have children it gets  bigger. it seems the size ranges from 340 to 540 sq. feet.

 

Education is provided depending on scores and abilities and after graduation the state places them in their job, they can request options, but it is ultimately decided by the state. Workers get 2 weeks vacation, work 5 days a week usually and earn between $200 and $700 a month. Retirement is 60 for men and 55 for women. Maternity leave is 8 months and women with children can tend to childcare.

 

All business is owned by the state, there is no private business nor private real estate property. All transportation in government provided rail or bus; only bicycles are privately owned.  It is reported that this year there will be allowed some private autos to selected people. People who excel in sports, science or other value to the state can get extra benefits, bigger housing etc..

 

It actually sounds much like a system that some in this country are advocating. There is no freedom of speech or opposition. Internet is available within the country as is cell phone service. TV and entertainment are all controlled by the state.

 

Much of the financial transactions are digital transactions with a cell phone. 

 

With the advent of AI and the ability of states to monitor and surveil everything and everyone, there is little hope of any change of direction from the people.  

 

When you listen to the people in the World Economic forum, one could speculate that North Korea could be the future for the majority of mankind. AI and the surveillance state will make that possible with a minimal cadre of enforcers. Their motto of "You will own nothing and be happy." should be frightening. 

 

One wonders if it possible to domestic a population over time, just as chickens or cattle, not knowing nothing else and malcontents and non conformists weeded out or isolated. Only a change of direction by the elites of a country could change that and it seems few would ever give up power once secured.

 

 

 

Red diesel is all about the tax.

 COMPLICATIONS OF TARGETING DYED DIESEL

DISRUPTION IN HEATING OIL SUPPLIES 

 

Trump supposedly made an executive order allowing dyed diesel fuel to be used in trucks, this most likely will not happen. Red dyed diesel is dyed to distinguish it from taxed and non taxed fuel. It is illegal to use dyed diesel on the highways of the nation, the tax is mostly a state tax, which is unlikely to be under Trumps jurisdiction. It is a highway tax to keep the roads maintained, In Pennsylvania the tax is 74.1 cents and the federal tax is 24.4 cents. a total 98. 5 cents. Heating oil and farm and construction fuel is not taxed because it is not used in highway transportation. Heating oil and diesel are interchangeable the dye is just to indicate the untaxed fuel.

 

Trump does have the authority to suspend the 24.4 cent tax on undyed highway diesel, but getting involved in the dyed fuel will be a complicated mess. 

 

Trucks that run dyed diesel on the road will be fined, distributors will be reluctant to fill road used tanks. Stations that put dyed fuel in their tanks will have residual dye in their tanks indefinitely. It may disrupt heating oil supplies right when heating oil is being planned for the winter season. 

 

I suspect we will see a walk back on this and the right legal option would be to suspend the 24.4 cent federal tax on all highway fuel, both diesel and gas, this would be simple to implement and simple to reinstate in the future. 

 

A simple consultation with someone in the fuel business would have saved an embarrassing uninformed move. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yemen/Saudi war escalates,

 ANSAR ALLAH ENCIRCLES TAIZZ

WEST HOPES FOR SUNNI SHIA WAR

 

The war between Yemen and Saudi Arabia intensified yesterday as the Saudi backed fighters attempted to retake the strait on the Red sea. It is reported that attempt has failed and at the same time Ansar Allah as encircled Taizz the second most populated city in Yemen. While Ansar Allah or Houthis have been labeled the rebel forces, they control the largest city Sanas and may soon control the second largest Taizz. They control the west and north which is the majority of the populated part of Yemen.

 

Yemen has a population of 43 million and Saudi Arabia has a population of 35 million, many of their population are foreign workers. Yemen is majority Shia and Saudi Arabia Suni. There has been conflict between the two since 1935 when Saudi Arabia took several former areas in northern Yemen. While Yemen is often labeled an Iranian proxy they are actually independent in their policies, but aligned with Iran. 

 

It is reported that there are now French, British and US advisers in Saudi Arabia and also that 40,000 Pakistani troops are on the way to assist the Saudi's. Extensive bombing continued of Yemen yesterday and the Saudi pipeline to the Red sea was again disabled along with major damage to their biggest refinery.  It is also reported that the pipeline has no air defense but is patrolled by US helicopters.

 

Majority Shia Pakistan risks revolt at home by aiding western allied governments. the present government has long been cooperative with the CIA and has displaced the most popular president of Pakistan Imran Khan, under pressure from the US. Khan is presently in prison after surviving an assassination attempt. Khan had hoped to move Pakistan into a neutral position in global politics. We will see how the Shia population views their soldiers fighting against a Shia nation.

 

This Yemen war is part of the Iran war, possibly to secure a safe area in Saudi Arabia for a staging area.  It also provides a Suni/Shia conflict that would hopefully cause destruction of both sides in a Muslim conflict, an eternal strategy of divide and conquer. Saudi Arabia has always viewed itself as the leader of the Muslim world, but its standing in the Muslim world is under question.

 

Israel would like a militarily devastated region and the US ultimately wants control of all gulf oil. It appears the region is on its way to being devastated, which will result in a global economic crisis and the oil may be unavailable for years, if these conflicts continue.

 

 

 

 

 

Will Iran strike first?

 US & ISRAEL ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME WAR

NO LONGER A SURPRISE ATTACK 

 

Few actually expect any kind of peace agreement with Iran, including Iran. Trump has made it clear that an attack is coming, if not now, after the US and Israeli elections.  the election results will have no bearing on this attack, both Trump and Netanyahu will still be charge. 

 

Many speculate that Iran may attack as soon as they see signs  of an imminent attack. Iran has only attacked once in the last 6 months that was not in retaliation to US strikes. Israel has refrained from any attacks on Iran, possibly in an effort to stockpile its munitions.  

 

Iran will most likely not change that pattern, as the policy of allowing the US and Israel to start the action has benefited them in world opinion, not in the US or other western countries, but in other parts of the world.  Iran will know as soon as the planes are in the sky and it will give them time to put drones and missiles in the air before any actual ordnance strikes Iran. In fact, US planes will need to travel further and refuel before dropping their stand off weapons, which will give Iran an opportunity to put drones into the air in the refueling area, it could be a very hazardous activity.

 

Many believe this attack is coming before the elections and aircraft and resources are on the way to the region. This coming attack looks like it will be an effort to be a decisive effort, hoping to put an end to the standoff. It could very well be just that, but it is uncertain what the outcome will be.  It is unlikely that the US will be able to muster the resources in the near future for anther attack this year. 

 

If Iran is destroyed, it will set off another chain of events that are unpredictable, migration, terrorism and other problems will be hard to estimate. If the US is stymied, it may very well end its position in the region and usher in a new era in West Asia.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why Trump is unconcerned about the midterms.

 INCONSEQUENTIAL TO HIS AGENDA 

DEMOCRATS WILL BE POWERLESS  

 

Some have speculated that Trump really has little concern about the results of the midterm elections. Trump has even stated publicly that the elections are not relevant for him. He may be more right than most would like to admit.

 

Trump has essentially passed most of his domestic agenda that was possible in this term. It is pretty obvious that he will need to focus on foreign policy and trade and the congress will have little power to change any of his foreign policy decisions. While they may be able stop funding for some items, they will not stop funding Ukraine or Israel as they are just as beholding to the neo-con foreign policy lobby and the Israel lobby as the present congress.

 

While they probably could be successful in getting Trump's support on some legislation if they could agree to trading or compromising, they will most likely do what Democrats usually do, spend the next 2 years with investigations and court filings. None of those paths will yield any results in the next 2 years and Trump will continue on his foreign policy path that they will not have the courage to oppose.

 

Politically speaking, a Democrat win this November may be the best thing to happen for Republicans in 2028. Trump will  not be impeached by the Senate and I suspect most Americans are very tired politically. I see no real Democrat solutions, just more of the same kind of things they propose. They most likely will give Republicans lots of ammunition for 2028.