Logistical problems of the Iran war.

 THE PROBLEMS WITH A 10,000 MILE AWAY WAR

SUPPLY IS MONUMENTAL UNDERTAKING 

 

The recent revelations about the difficulties on the Abraham Lincoln have brought the difficulties of the supplying the necessary materials to the region to the surface. Iran is over 7000 miles from California in a straight line and all those supplies have to come from the U.S. mainland at some point. Of course we have bases in Hawaii, Philippines and Japan, but it is still a massive undertaking. Most supplies have to be transported by ship. 

 

The U.S. main base in the gulf region was in Bahrain the headquarters of 5th fleet. It was evacuated within days of the onset of conflict and no longer is able to be used. This leaves Diego Garcia 2500 miles from Iran. I recall that the British confiscated the Island from the locals in the late 1960's and turned it over to the U.S. to be used as a base. The Navy scuttlebutt at the time was that it was going to be pivotal as the focus was shifting from southeast Asia to the middle east. Interesting that this was way before  the Islamic revolution Saddam Hussein, or other issue in the middle east.

 

Diego Garcia is 5200 miles from Japan, 3600 miles from the Philippines, 8900 miles from Hawaii. Ships like supply vessels usually travel at around 20 miles an hour. The distances are not in a straight line and have many tuns and detours.

 

While Navy warships can be resupplied at sea it is confined to food, fuel and items that can be moved ship to ship. Munitions, particularly missiles, have to be resupplied  in port.  With the closest base now 2500 miles away it is massive undertaking and very costly. 

 

Aircraft logistics are also a massive undertaking.  Iran is near 1000 miles from Israel and Jordan, this is were most of the land aircraft and tankers have been relocated, as gulf bases have been severally damaged. All offensive aircraft must be refueled once incoming and once outgoing in the air, as the fuel range is near 600 miles. Aircraft carriers are positioned as far as 600 miles away and also need in air refueling. Most of the defensive  missiles have been moved around Israel and Jordon to protect these tankers and aircraft.

 

 The long range radar  stations have all been destroyed and are being replaced by airborn AWAC aircraft. The warning times for incoming missiles is now only minutes for bases in Israel and Jordon. 

 

It now becomes more clear to why Russia has not moved deep into Ukraine as it has its logistical support within only miles of its supplies. For Ukraine it is 800 miles from Poland to the front

 

Logistics is always a great part of any conflict. in a attrition war it can be the deciding factor. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The U.S. has lost internal control of its future.

 CHANGES WILL NOT COME FROM THE ELECTORAL PROCESS

OUTSIDE FORCES WILL FORCE REAL CHANGES

 

We now hear of the great changes coming from a midterm election and then of course 2028. The direction of the country is no longer governed by elections and thoughtful decisions, it is going to be governed by the consequences of decades of irresponsibility and past decisions. Decisions not made by citizens or in the best interest of the country, but decisions made by numerous groups of special interests who have sown the seeds of the country's demise. The country will survive, but it may be decades for it to recover to a sound, stable and prosperous future.

 

I am sure many will dismiss such speculation as just doom and gloom appraisals of the situation, but it is clear the foreign policy of this country has been dictated by others, rather than the people or even its elected officials. It seems presidents are allowed to whipsaw the internal domestic politics, but foreign policy and the direction of the country is uniform and the same no matter election outcomes. The midterms and the 2028 election will be very anticlimactic and will have no effect on the real direction of the country.

 

The Democrats, due to their embrace of mediocrity, literally do not have any candidates qualified to lead or bring any vision for the future. We will see a domestic agenda of a move to more socialism, more spending, more debt and still war in numerous places.

 

The Republicans will be unable to shake themselves of the control of donors and those who believe we can still force the world to submit to our diminishing power.  More spending, more debt and war in numerous places.

 

The country is on a rail to its demise financially and politically and with the present debate of deciding if nuclear weapons are now the last ditch  method to enforce submission, it may all  make irrelevant any dog and pony show election distraction.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Are we destroying Navy morale?

 250 DAYS AT SEA IS UNBEARABLE

GOOD LUCK WITH NAVY RECRUITMENT

 

We are sometimes reminded of the horrors of crossing the Atlantic in sailing ships, Columbus,  the Pilgrims and others, their voyage lasted between 28 and 50 days. While today it is much safer than in those days,  time on the water is an exhausting affair.

 

I have spent as many as 90 and 120 days at sea and as young person it was a very depressing and overwhelming affair. Usually fresh water is rationed, hence the term,"Navy Showers", eggs that are 90 days old, safe, but not very appetizing. It is a test of endurance and possibly more so without a clear mission and objective.

 

The recent revelation about the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln is something that should not be happening, similar problems arose with the Gerald Ford with stories of internal sabotage etc. With eleven carriers, why have they not being rotated in a sensible humane way? It seems most of the others are in port, under repair and one wonders if they actually have crews to man all these carriers. 

 

This is an aircraft carrier and I suspect the same problems, but worse, are happening on the other smaller ships, which are not as comfortable or have the same quality of supplies as the the big ships. No one has mentioned that the climate this time of year in that region is often 120 degrees. One has to wonder if the air conditioning can keep up? 

 

I recall being at sea for months and the talk of sabotage or mutiny soon become commonplace, although none ever happened. Twice that time at sea is not really understandable or comprehensible. We can expect that it will have a long term effect on many of these sailors, their reenlistment rate will undoubtedly decline and when they hit  port, some will not return.

 

A similar abuse of the reserve forces in the other gulf wars I suspect has had lasting effects on recruitment. Many reservists, there for an existential threat to the nation, were called up for  1 year and sometimes multiple 1 year call ups, resulting in loss of homes, due to foreclosure, wives and families. Their lives were damaged sometimes irreversibly.

 

The repercussion of this war and other preceding wars is having lasting effects on the nation in more ways than can be predicted.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug. 13, 1971 beginning of U.S. economic decline.

 ITS BEEN DOWNHILL EVER SINCE

NOW ESCALATING 

 

On August 13, 1971 Richard Nixon met with 15 advisers at Camp David and sealed the fate of the U.S. dollar and the economic future of the country. While this fate could have been reversed, and we have had some periods of slowing, it has been a downward spiral ever since. It is now generally conceded that reversal is now impossible, only an unprecedented crisis awaits.

 

On this day 55 years ago, Nixon, by executive order, temporarily ceased to exchange U.S. currency for gold. This was a reaction due to the increase in foreign countries demanding gold for their inflation ridden dollars and the U.S. feared that its gold reserves would quickly be depleted. It would have, only 2 years after the last balanced budget of the U.S., many were aware of the direction the dollar was going and hoped to cash in while they could. Nixon also imposed wage and price controls and a 10% tariff on imported goods, it had little effect and the rest is now history. 

 

In 1974 Nixon repriced gold from $35 an oz. to $42.22 were officially it remains today. The market price of gold today is $4375 an ounce. A glaring result of the continuous devaluation of the dollar in the last 55 years, much of it in the last 20 years, as the deficits increase, the debt is now considered unsustainable and any informed investors understand that it is all unsustainable and something will break very soon.

 

The Vietnam war and the great society socialist expansion resulted in the first budget deficits.  Raising taxes to pay for these things would be politically unpopular just as they are today, except today it is virtually impossible to increase taxes enough or cut spending enough without a serious economic crisis as a result. Most understand that it is now too far gone to be corrected.

 

Much of the focus is now on protecting and sustaining the dollar as the worlds reserve currency, it is no longer possible, it has been virtually destroyed over the last 55 years and much of the world is now moving to gold and silver as a better store of wealth. 

 

In fact we are now increasing the debt by $Trillions  in an effort to force others to keep accepting diminishing in value dollars, just making the matter worse.

 

While this act by Nixon was one part of the beginning decline of America there is much more that we will address in another time. 

 

We have been told repeatably that gold as a basis of real money is an antiquated relic of the past, but we are going to witness that unbacked paper money is an attempt to steal the labor and assets of all that count on it as a store of wealth, it is a purse with holes  and fraud on all those who rely on it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Are West Asia countries hedging their bets?

 NEW ALLIANCES REPLACING THE U.S.?

IRAN WAR HAS HASTENED DECLINE OF U.S. INFLUENCE

 

The recent announcement of a new security agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan may be an indication that gulf countries are now planning to take control of their own security. They may have discovered that the U.S. is no longer in a position to offer that security. It is still not clear to what length this agreement goes and who they consider their biggest threat. While some assume it is an alliance to protect from Iran, it may be a growing alliance to protect from Israel and the United States.

 

Will Pakistan soon share nuclear technology to both Turkey and Saudi Arabia? Trump had proposed Saudi Arabia be assisted with nuclear enrichment, but only if they join the Abraham accords, which they refuse to do without a two state solution. Pakistan has had a close relationship with U.S. intelligence and one must wonder why they have been trusted by Iran in negotiations. Pakistan has also been cozying up to China, are they also hedging their bets?

 

This so called Mideast NATO has recently been proposed by Egypt, we will see if Egypt will be an addition to this group in the near future.  

 

One can understand the insecurity of these countries with the narrative coming out of Israel that Turkey is considered a greater threat to Israel than Iran and also concern about Egypt. It would be reasonable for these  countries to assume that the U.S. may also consider them a threat in the future. It is not far fetched to consider that even a alliance with Iran, insured by China could be in the future.

 

Then there is the clear indication that U.S. foreign policy is being based on the control of the worlds oil supplies, also a threat to their sovereignty. 

 

With the rise of MBS in Saudi Arabia the country  has cracked down on the support for international terrorism that once was financed by some in the country. His leadership has moved the country into a more aggressive entrance into the world financial community. The concern of the U.S. has been the acceptance of using Chinese currency in its oil transactions rather than the dollar. This is big no no for the U.S. and MBS likely understands that this will cause a problem with the U.S. The problem is, that most of these countries see China as a valuable partner for the future, both financially and politically, another reason for more hedging with an uncertain future. 

 

 

 

 

No Iran deal, just dueling economic warfare.

 U.S. WILL NEVER MAKE A DEAL WITH IRAN

IT WILL BE BACK TO WAR SOONER OR LATER 

 

It appears for now that the latest strategy is imposing economic hardship on Iran until it submits or surrenders to the U.S.  At the same time Iran will keep the strait closed until the U.S. is forced by internal and global pressure to back off from this war. 

 

The Israeli's concede that they may have to wait some time for the Iranian's to collapse and succumb to economic pressure, but they assume they will go the way of Syria, even if it takes years.

 

The Iranians also believe that in the short run they can cause severe damage to the presidency of Donald Trump  by continuing the economic pressure caused by the dispute over the strait. 

 

They all have reason to assume their analysis is correct, except there are many more interlocking variables to consider.

 

There is substantial evidence that this conflict will soon result in a global economic crisis that may far overshadow this conflict, way before Iran or the U.S. are willing to concede.

 

The internal politics of both the U.S. and Israel are very likely to become far more complicated in the short run than for Iran. 

 

Israel is claiming that Iran is forgoing attacks on Israel because they fear Israel's retaliation, I doubt this is the case.  Iran understands that without U,S. it will be at the mercy of Iran, so its focus is now on the U.S. 

 

We should expect that it will soon become obvious that economic pressure on Iran will not end this and a a last ditch attempt to overwhelm Iran militarily will eventually be on the agenda. It may be the last all or nothing throw of the dice.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ukraine down to their last strongholds?

 DONBAS DEFENSE BELT UNDER EVACUATION 

MAY BE FINAL BATTLE FOR REGION 

 

Civilians are being evacuated from the main defense belt of the Donbas region,  the stage is set for the final battle for the Donbas region. While the war may continue, it will be a major step to ending this war. 

 

Most observers believe that when Russia secures this region plus the other 2 reaming areas, Kherson and Zaporizhzia, it will be a prime time for a negotiated settlement. When this area falls it will make the defense of the other regions far harder to defend.  At present this battle shapes up as the largest and most defining battle in this 4 year war. With anticipated causalities of 100,000 on both sides and possibly lasting for the rest of the year, it may be anticlimactic. It may be that Ukraine will not be able to last another 6 months and internal crisis will actually bring all this to an end sooner. Either way, it will be a pivotal battle in this war.

 

While much is made about Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian ships and infrastructure, the reality is that Ukraine has lost control of the Black Sea and the port of Odessa, a another pivotal reality.  Ukraine is on its way to being a landlocked nation whose economic future will be greatly diminished.

 

It is hard to envision any real peace in Ukraine,  even after hostiles end, it looks like years of suffering  and economic decline. Will the west be in an economic position to rebuild what will be left of Ukraine? It is likely that the areas that are part of Russia, will outperform what remains.