No Iran deal, just dueling economic warfare.

 U.S. WILL NEVER MAKE A DEAL WITH IRAN

IT WILL BE BACK TO WAR SOONER OR LATER 

 

It appears for now that the latest strategy is imposing economic hardship on Iran until it submits or surrenders to the U.S.  At the same time Iran will keep the strait closed until the U.S. is forced by internal and global pressure to back off from this war. 

 

The Israeli's concede that they may have to wait some time for the Iranian's to collapse and succumb to economic pressure, but they assume they will go the way of Syria, even if it takes years.

 

The Iranians also believe that in the short run they can cause severe damage to the presidency of Donald Trump  by continuing the economic pressure caused by the dispute over the strait. 

 

They all have reason to assume their analysis is correct, except there are many more interlocking variables to consider.

 

There is substantial evidence that this conflict will soon result in a global economic crisis that may far overshadow this conflict, way before Iran or the U.S. are willing to concede.

 

The internal politics of both the U.S. and Israel are very likely to become far more complicated in the short run than for Iran. 

 

Israel is claiming that Iran is forgoing attacks on Israel because they fear Israel's retaliation, I doubt this is the case.  Iran understands that without U,S. it will be at the mercy of Iran, so its focus is now on the U.S. 

 

We should expect that it will soon become obvious that economic pressure on Iran will not end this and a a last ditch attempt to overwhelm Iran militarily will eventually be on the agenda. It may be the last all or nothing throw of the dice.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ukraine down to their last strongholds?

 DONBAS DEFENSE BELT UNDER EVACUATION 

MAY BE FINAL BATTLE FOR REGION 

 

Civilians are being evacuated from the main defense belt of the Donbas region,  the stage is set for the final battle for the Donbas region. While the war may continue, it will be a major step to ending this war. 

 

Most observers believe that when Russia secures this region plus the other 2 reaming areas, Kherson and Zaporizhzia, it will be a prime time for a negotiated settlement. When this area falls it will make the defense of the other regions far harder to defend.  At present this battle shapes up as the largest and most defining battle in this 4 year war. With anticipated causalities of 100,000 on both sides and possibly lasting for the rest of the year, it may be anticlimactic. It may be that Ukraine will not be able to last another 6 months and internal crisis will actually bring all this to an end sooner. Either way, it will be a pivotal battle in this war.

 

While much is made about Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian ships and infrastructure, the reality is that Ukraine has lost control of the Black Sea and the port of Odessa, a another pivotal reality.  Ukraine is on its way to being a landlocked nation whose economic future will be greatly diminished.

 

It is hard to envision any real peace in Ukraine,  even after hostiles end, it looks like years of suffering  and economic decline. Will the west be in an economic position to rebuild what will be left of Ukraine? It is likely that the areas that are part of Russia, will outperform what remains.

 

 

 

Growing cost of maintaining empire.

WILL $1.5 TRILLION DEFENSE BUDGET BE ENOUGH?

BLEEDING TO THE POINT OF EXHAUSTION

 

Osama bin Laden warned the US that if they continued on their path in the middle east they would be bled to the point of collapse.  The architect of the 911 attack is long gone, but his worlds are more relevant today than in 2001, 25 years ago. With another prolonged costly war underway in Iran and another in Ukraine, can the US continue to be the master of the globe?

 

We hear the new demand for $1.5 Trillion defense budget, an increase of $500 billion, as being necessary to defend the country from adversaries hell bent on the US destruction. The US has an estimated 750 to 800 military bases around the world, only an estimate, as no one really knows for sure how many. The UK also bankrupt, has the next largest number at around 100. The great so called threats to the US, Russia and China may have several dozen in lands adjacent to or bordering their countries. 

 

The US present Defense or War budget is now $954 billion and is claimed to be seriously inadequate.  China, a country with over 1 billion citizens, is next at $335 billion, admittedly rising, mostly due to continuous threats of US military and political leaders of inevitable war with China. Russia's military budget is estimated at $190 billion. Israel at $48 billion and Iran at $7.4 billion. No one is counting the pallets of US dollars handed out as bribes and incentives for other players to do military related operations for the greatest spender on the planet in human history, much of it borrowed or just plain printed money.

 

No one doubts that the US can ultimately defeat any adversary, ultimately with the use of nuclear weapons if necessary, at least for now. The question is how long can the US maintain the financial power to keep maintaining this empire, that is fraying badly. In December the selective service registration will become automatic and some suspect that it will be necessary to add many more warm bodies to the ranks to keep up the defense of empire. Reluctant warm bodies have often proved to be sometimes a liability rather than an asset, but I suspect this is were the country is going, like on a rail, with out brakes, until it ultimately self derails.

 

All the while, the adversaries may understand better than the architects of this empire that it is all unsustainable and time is running out, they just need to survive and not directly confront the monster, until it self destructs. 

 

 

 

 

Iran and Oman agree to strait plan.

 WILL TRUMP END BLOCKADE?

THE CHANGING GLOBAL ORDER

 

Iran and Oman have announced that they have worked out the details on a plan to insure safe passage through the strait of Hormuz, if this is correct, the only obstacle for free flow of passage is the Trump blockade, another dilemma for Trump. It seems that traffic will enter the strait on Iran's side of the strait and exit on Oman's side. Both countries will cooperate in maintaining orderly traffic to insure environmental guidelines and assist in any safety problems. They will charge a small fee for this service, no toll, maintaining that such fees conform to international maritime law.   

 

In effect, this agreement maintains that the strait can now be open and it will all depend on whether Trump will accept this arrangement. We can expect the majority of the countries who depend on traffic through the strait, will agree to this plan. There is speculation that Trump will agree, if the US shares in the income from the fees or assists in Oman's share of the regulation.

 

This may be another opportunity for Trump to declare victory and get out of this mess, without destroying the global economy. We can bet the wires are burning up from all those opposed and possibly from those that will accept this solution.

 

In the Ukraine conflict Russia has in effect disabled Ukraine from using the port of Odessa. It is unlikely that Ukraine can regain use of the port, making it a landlocked country.

 

The US is attempting to intervene in the Japan bond market crisis, also part of the consequences of the energy problems in Asia caused by the Iran war. 

 

The world is watching as the dynamics of the existing world order are in transition.

 

 

 

 

Iran negotiating with Oman on future of strait.

 NEW REALITY EMERGING IN WEST ASIA

 NEW REALITY WITHOUT ANY DEAL?

 

While much angst and threats of escalation continue, Iran and Oman have come to the final details on the plan to regulate traffic in the strait of Hormuz. One must wonder if the Iran crisis will end with a gradual change in the political alliances rather than a destruction of Iran. Of course, it is too early to tell, but world economic pressure is rising on many fronts and a continuation of the present conflict is becoming harder to justify.

 

While Iran has for most of this conflict had a policy of retaliation from attacks in a measured 1 on 1 response, it now seems it is attempting to increase its retaliation to be more aggressive in response. At present things have died down militarily, and escalation is becoming very dangerous politically, economically and even militarily. While there is talk of negotiations, there may be talking between intermediaries, there is not any direct talks between Iran and US and it seems there is not going to be any.

 

The Gulf countries are now in a box of their own, there is reluctance to support further escalation that could destroy these countries economically for years to come. Also, and one must suspect while the governments fear and are reluctant to deal with Iran their populations are now beginning to view Iran as the strong actor in the region. The much touted Shia Sunni division may be less real  in the general populations than in their governments. Is Iran becoming more of a hero to the Muslim population as this crisis goes on?  Iran has been able to engage in a rational unemotional policy that has been very disciplined and transparent, resistance with power, almost predictable and pragmatic responses, they do seem to have a plan and are following it.

 

The danger for Iran is over reach which could spell their doom, but so far, considering what they have endured, they have have been steady in their policies. Then while support in the US is weak for this war. it may be expected some sort of false flag attack by US players or Israel in the hope to gain support for the ultimate destruction of Iran. The immediate labeling of the migrant attack in Spain, by the majority of observers, blaming Israel and the US for punishing Spain for not being co combatants in this war may put a real damper on any attempts for such an attack.

 

At present there seems to be desperation in Washington, Tel Aviv and the Gulf countries, but time is running out, this situation needs to have some sort of conclusion soon, or the economic crisis emerging will possibly be more dangerous than this war.

 

 

 

 

 

Will debt and bond market soon take center stage?

 JAPAN BOND MARKET MAY BE FIRST TO GO

OTHER WESTERN BONDS MAY BE NEXT

 

While the world is focused on the Iran war and oil prices the next serious crisis may be underway in Japan. Japan has the largest debt to GDP in the world, often linked to their financial crisis from 1989 that has never been resolved, just papered over like many countries in the west. Japan is the largest holder of US debt and problems in Japan will cause a need to liquidate other holdings to salvage their bond market.

 

It may be a cascading problem that will affect all bond markets. The 10 year US treasury is now yielding 4.7 % and 30 year 5.25%. Japan holds over $1 trillion of US debt and it may be necessary to liquidate some of that and not buy any more. China has been downsizing its exposure to US debt for some years and now hold near half of what it did some time ago. With massive deficits in the US, and a desire to dramatically increase defense spending, it can only go one way.

 

This will result in servicing the existing debt to become the biggest single expense in the budget which is already over $1 Trillion. This crowds out money for important investments as the past spending begins to cripple economic growth going forward. It has been reported that Metals have replaced Treasury debt as the largest share of foreign reserves. 

 

This coupled with the gulf countries also experiencing almost no income for now over 5 months have liquidated gold and treasury bonds and also are being covered by the US treasury. The US treasury will not be able to intervene in the gulf countries and Japan and manage its own problems that are escalating.

 

Much of the debt in the US can be attributed to 30+ years of foreign military intervention coupled with buying votes with more grants and spending by the Federal government. Whether now is the time it all comes due is not yet clear, but it may very well be the beginning of the end of deficits and unrestrained spending.

 

 

 

 

 

Trump's agonizing dilemma, no win in sight.

 TRUMP BACKS AWAY FROM ESCALATION

AT LEAST FOR NOW

 

Yesterday, Trump at least postponed the anticipated massive attack on Iran.  We can speculate that the phones and messages are burning up Trump's phone as never before, Primarily by those who want this war to continue.

 

Trump's dilemma is, yes the US has the power to destroy Iran as a functioning state, but the consequences are not easily calculated, it is the simple reason that former presidents, all who supported Israel, and all hoped to control the oil assets of Iran, balked at outright war with Iran. Iran who has been under sanctions, war and threats of war by the US ever since 1979, knew that one day they would come to an ultimate test in a confrontation with the US. They understood that a military confrontation with the US would be devastating, but was not willing to go back into being a part of a colonial system as they were under the Shaw. Their dilemma is far more existential than Trump's has been, at least until now. 

 

The former agreement under Obama was considered a step in the right direction to normalize relations with Iran.  It put Iran on the world stage with all the major powers and it was in their  interest to live up to the agreement. Contrary to the narrative, they did live up to the agreement, at least as long as the US continued to do so. When the US, under pressure on Trump, by Netanyahu, pulled out of the agreement, Iran proceeded to enrich Uranium to the 60 % level and informed everyone that they did so. They admitted it was effort to bring about another negotiation of the nuclear issue, but it became a rallying cry for the destruction of Iran. 

 

That negotiation was actually on its way to be successful in Geneva in late February, but one can speculate that US negotiators informed Israel before they informed Trump or Trump had already decided to attack Iran, we may never know. 

 

The attack on February 28 was a viscous and brutal attack that killed off the leadership of Iran in one day, the earlier attack by Israel in June 2025, also killed leaders and scientists and their families. While most deny it, the reality is that Trump refused to go along with that attack and declared victory after the attack on nuclear facilities, it was not what Israel wanted. Israel wanted and still wants Iran to be reduced to a failed state similar to Libya and Syria, leaving Israel one step away form being the dominate power in the region.

 

While Israel wants Iran destroyed as a nation, the neocolonialists and neocons in the government have convinced Trump that the US can preserve its hope of world domination by controlling the oil resources of the world. 

 

There is lots of evidence to back up this claim, it began when the DOGE savings, that were hoped to right the financial problems in the country, were immediately transferred to the military, the renaming the defense department to the Department of War.  The emphasis on Panama and Venezuela and Greenland. No audit of the defense department and the expectation to increase military spending to $1.5 trillion. The increasing of sanctions on any country that did not submit to US demands. The eventual capture of all oil revenue of Venezuela, and the hope of controlling all Mideast oil facilitated by gaining control of Iran's oil to be followed by the oil of the whole Gulf. A hope to control the world by controlling the oil resources as a lever.

 

So far it has not been quite that easy, there has been resistance and Iran is being backed up by Russia and China, understanding that Iran's geographical position and their oil resources are important to building an alternative economic system independent of western control. That is were we stand today. 

 

The US and Israel can destroy Iran, but Iran has credibility demonstrated that they can take down the world economy, as they are destroyed. They understand that they are under a existential threat to their survival and need to never submit to the inevitable destruction of their country. The hope of an internal collapse is evidentially non existent, Israel is focused on Iranian destruction and the neocons believe that if Iran prevails their hope of world domination is coming to an end. There may not be any winners in a further attempt to destroy Iran, but can the leadership in the US be content to be part of the world economy without being in control of it.

 

It appears that Trump has rejected the advice of the U.S. intelligence in predicting the risks of war with Iran, there is lots of evidence he has relied on intelligence from Israel and Mossad, which may be biased.  The resignations of Gabbard and Kent indicate this is true. The killing of Khomeini and the school girls was making sure that Iran would not easily submit but fight until they are destroyed.  

 

I do not believe that US has the manufacturing base or a sound economic base and currency to pull off this effort to control the globe and is further weakening its credibility and financial hopes for the future by  increasing debt and destroying good will. Resources sorely needed to restore the US financial systsem and manufacturing base are being squandered in its quest to preserve its control by economic and military threats. The US and the world is at a pivotal moment in history, with a the possibility of a positive outcome declining by the day.