Politicians ready for more war, Military not so much?

 WILL POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS OVERRIDE MILITARY ADVICE?

NO CONSENSUS ON PLAN OF ACTION? 

 

Everyone now assumes a resumption of attacks on Iran will be coming very shortly after the midterm elections. If so, it will be very soon after, as possible efforts to stop another attack may grow with time.

 

Whether from leaks or other calculations, it is now assumed that there will be another effort to take out the current leadership in Iran, a hobbling of the Iranian economy by destroying economic infrastructure and even possibly using ground troops to take control of the strait of Hormuz. A very ambitious plan, that is supposed to be very quick and consummated in just a few days. 

 

There is plenty of evidence that this is underway by asset movements and military preparations. It would be a joint Israeli and US campaign.

 

It is also evident that there is lots of doubts about this within both the Israeli and US military. Netanyahu may feel that another round will insure his being able to gain support for a coalition to keep him in power and Trump needs to end this conflict one way or another.

 

There are talks going on between the gulf countries and Iran and one has to wonder if they have the influence to stop such an attack, or is their opinion and concerns no longer relevant.

 

There is one small last hope that all this preparation is all a bluff to bring about Iranian submission, but it is a very small hope. 

 

I expect we will know the answer in possibly days rather than weeks.

 

 

 

 

 

Israeli election, Revealing, dismal future for minority voters.

 CLAIMS OF ARAB CITIZENS STEALING ELECTION

NETANYAHU LIKELY TO REMAIN "KING OF ISRAEL" 

 

While the votes are still being counted, it is clear that no candidate will win a majority with its present coalition. So one side or the other will need to get some part of the others coalition to switch sides. The other alternative would be to add one of the Arab citizen blocks to break the deadlock. Both side have indicated that will never happen.

 

Netanyahu is demanding that the Arab citizens votes be investigated, claiming irregularities including "illegal software" used to get out the vote. 

 

The Arabs seem to have won between 16 and 19 seats of 120 seats, giving them the opportunity to have some say in future decisions. The narrative coming out from politician indicates that their future is bleak rather than promising, It should be expected that they will now be targeted for retaliation for actually engaging in the democratic process and making life more difficult for the ruling class. From what is being said it may be the last election that they will be allowed to participate. 

 

The only difference between the leading candidates is that the opposition would strive to improve the image of Israel to the rest of the world. Actual policy seems to be the same.

 

Trump has weighed in insisting that extremist Ben Gvir not be  part of any future government, that may not be mathematically impossible, unless he actually agrees to not participate, an unlikely prospect. 

 

We can expect the deal making and maneuvering to continue and Netanyahu is the most skilled and experienced  in getting what he wants. Is he the warrior King the population has been waiting for all these years?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hoping to gain advantage, while talking peace.

 RELYING ON TECHNOLOGY TO NEUTRALIZE IRAN

WE WILL SEE WHAT 6 MONTHS OF PROBING HAS PRODUCED

 

With elections soon to be in the past, we can expect another round of hostilities with Iran. It may be the last one, as it is doubtful that another major offensive can be mustered. Economic conditions may very well override military action after this next go around.

 

While we have heard over 6 months of new deals, expected collapse of Iran and a host of narratives it was all a delaying tactic to figure out how to destroy Iran without being destroyed or bring9ng about global economic collapse. 

 

We have witnessed repeated probes, small attacks and jets running near Iranian airspace, all in an attempt to gain intelligence as to the location of their capabilities and also a hope to develop counter measures to neutralize the accuracy of their expected response. 

 

Iranian responses during the war were devastating to US bases and radar in the region, coupled with a shortage of interceptors, brought about the pause in hostilities under the pretext of negotiations. It was more about surviving and repositioning to fight another day.  

 

Every time Iran turns on it radar for its air defenses it become identifiable and vulnerable.  There are indications Iran has taken enormous punishment while protecting its air defenses,  saving them for the final conflict.

 

The US and Israel have been surprised by the accuracy of Iran's missiles it is much improved from the first go around in 2025 and we can expect they are hoping to find a way to interfere with this accuracy. No one doubts that Russia and China have aided Iran in perfecting this accuracy and also improving their air defenses. Much like Ukraine it is an opportunity to test equipment and gain intelligence on their opponents.

 

It is likely the much anticipated attack on Iran has not happened because the US has not been confident that it has overcome the problems with an all out war with Iran, if they had it would have happened long ago. 

 

It seems that military leaders in both Israel and the US have been less confident than their leaders, but economic and political considerations may now make a decision even without that confidence.

 

 

 

 

Will foreign policy change after election?

 ELECTIONS UNDERWAY IN ISRAEL

DID IDF DEFY NETANYAHU? 

 

Elections are underway in Israel, results should be available by this evening here. It is unlikely to make any difference in foreign policy, but it may indicate that some are hoping for an effort to restore the Israeli image. 

 

There are reports from many places that the IDF refused to attack Iran by order of Netanyahu, it would have caused an internal  crisis for being an election ploy. I am sure we will hear more about this, depending on the election results.

 

Big meeting in Tehran yesterday between Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, supposedly to encourage Iran to put limits on Yemen, I suspect they talked about much more, the upcoming escalation could destroy the economies of all of them. While Yemen is allied in many way with Iran, they are not Iran's proxy, only an understanding between Saudi Arabia and Yemen will end this current conflict. Saudi Arabia started this current outbreak of the over a decade of fighting,  Yemen wants an end of the  blockade by the Saudi's. 

 

One week to the midterm elections,  we can expect a resumption in the war with Iran and all the accompanying consequences, no matter the outcome. The only thing that can stop the next round is push back from the gulf countries or Israel. 

 

We can expect with the elections over, there will be little restraint by Trump for the reminder of his term. Expect executive orders, lawsuits with drawn out legal disputes, but not really any change of foreign policy direction. 

 

Tomorrow, everyone will start talking about 2028.  

 

 

 

 

 

If Russia succeeds, Ukraine mineral leases will be void.

 UK'S 100 YEAR LEASES WORTHLESS

SAME FOR FRANCE AND US

 

While the Ukraine/Russia war continues, the end result is beginning to be in sight. It appears that Russia will have successfully incorporated at least 4 oblasts and Crimea into Russia. These regions are made up of majority Russian people and also the regions with the most natural resources. These regions are also the industrial regions that will be part of the Russian federation. 

 

In early 2025 the UK signed a 100 year agreement concerning access to the mineral resources. this led to Trump saying me too and signing a similar agreement. It can be assumed that since Zelensky was not constitutionally a legal elected President according to Ukraine's constitution, the agreements will be void even if Ukraine should retain those areas. We can assume Russia will never consider those agreements, if they are in control of those regions.

 

Zelensky won the 2019 election and was supported by the UK, the US supported Poroshinko, much of this was  jockeying for who would have control after the war. It is looking like neither will be able to defend their long term rights to Ukrainian minerals, at least not where most of the minerals exist.

 

Russia's resources will also not be in the West's control and may not even be available, while Germany and others are talking about purchasing Russian energy, it is not clear that Russia will be able to satisfy their demand, as it has long term commitments to its new buyers in China and India.

 

It could be expected that any agreement for Russian energy will hinge on the EU  assuming the cost of repairing the pipelines and maintaining them in the future. Russia is in the process of building pipelines supplying energy to the east and south. 

 

Control of Middle East oil is still not clear,  or if the war escalates, will there be any oil out of the region for some time. Can the US continue to control the oil out of Iraq and Syria without a massive rebuilding of bases in the region?  Does Israel really have the capacity to take the place of the US in the region? Can Israel expect the same same level of support from the US in the future? We can expect changes in US support in the area, due to economic and political considerations at home.

 

Both the Ukraine and Iran war seem to be turning points in the present world order, the hope is that it can be accomplished without destroying the economies and also the populations of the globe. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Elections less relevant, Future more baked in than ever.

 US FUTURE TO BE DETERMINED BY PAST POOR DECISIONS

LOSING  ABILITY TO CONTROL FUTURE 

 

With elections coming in less 2 weeks, it is becoming clear that future options are increasingly limited. Much of what happens to the country will be determined by the consequences of past decisions. While we will see domestic policy whipsawed from right to left, the real future is going to be limited by massive debt, a loss of self reliance and decisions made and realities outside the country.

 

The emphasis on controlling global economics and politics with sanctions and military power is coming to an end.  The latest sanctions on Russia is a good example, most of the rest of the world yawned and ignored them. Many in Europe are questioning if it's following the US on the Ukraine project was a good idea, with opposition parties are looking to Russia for energy salvation.

 

With a national debt approaching $41 Trillion and growing by the day, there is little money available for real infrastructure investment or more social programs and of course another $500 billion in anticipated military spending.

 

Government corruption has accelerated and now is more blatant than ever.  It is not a party thing, it is endemic to the government in general. There is no real option at the voting booth to change the direction of these serious issues.

 

While many hoped that Trump would indeed "Drain the Swamp"  it is becoming obvious that the swamp has overcome and actually incorporated him into the swamp. It would be naive to beleave that there is anyone on the horizon who will do better. 

 

While progress has been made in border control, taxes and some regulation reduction, the debt has spiraled, the deficits increased and war as a political tool is now the permanent way of life. It is clear that there will be no change of direction in managing the serious problems, only collapse and rebuilding, will be the option.

 

The upcoming resumption of war with Iran may be the impetus for the beginning of that collapse, it seems that it is now inevitable, no matter which party is in power. The US will not be able to afford to rebuild the bases in the gulf and most likely is destined to withdraw from many of the 750 bases in the world. While that is a good thing, it should have been made by conscious thoughtful decisions, not be the incoming necessity.

 

If you look at the composition of both parties, there is no consensus on ending any wars,  the democrats are already fuming on any suggestion of ending the Ukraine war., without destroying Russia. It seems we are much in the same boat as Ukraine, we will continue in war, until it is no longer economically and physically possible.

 

 

 

Russia agrees to talks, later, after elections.

 ZELENSKY AGREES TO GIVE UP TERRITORY

BIBI PROMISES MORE WAR WITH IRAN 

 

It seems there will not be any any election season surprises. No peace in Ukraine nor election eve war in Iran. It appears Bibi still wants war with Iran even before the elections to help his election chances, while Trump feels more war will be negative for the Republicans.  Putin, smiling, has pledged to talks with Ukraine. but not until the middle of next month, even with Zelensky admitting he will agree to give up eastern Ukraine. 

 

With less than a week until the Israeli election. Bibi does tapes with him on the phone with Trump promising more war with Iran. It appears more war with Iran is central for Bibi to win the election. Trump on the other hand hopes to continue with the narrative that peace is at hand both in Iran and Ukraine, hoping for a last minute election miracle.  

 

We can only assume that Putin is not willing to count on election season posturing and will wait to see what the narrative is after the elections or the actual policy. 

 

Iran understands that it will be more war, no matter the election results, talks and negotiations are just window dressing for Trump to appear that he really want a peace deal,  when there is no peace deal on the horizon.  

 

With no more elections in the near future, it will be back to war for sure in Iran and maybe even in Ukraine.