Blog Archive

Monday, March 18, 2024

7th Russian election concluded, results not unexpected.

 HAS RUSSOPHOBIA CEMENTED PUTIN'S POSITION

RUSSIAN'S UNITED AGAINST WESTERN THREATS



The 7th elections in Russia's history have been concluded. With a history of Czarist rule followed by totalitarian communist rule, the first ever election was held in 1991. This year's elections matched the turnout of their first election with a 74% turnout of the 112 million eligible voters.

This years election was extended to 3 days Mar. 15 to 17. polls open 12 hours a day. With 8 time zones and sometimes extreme weather it was hoped to boost election turnout. Elections have usually had a 64 to 67% turnout.

While the west hoped that a war with Ukraine would weaken Putin's position in Russia it may have actually cemented the resolve of the Russian people behind Putin. Putin became very popular in Russia by turning around the economic disaster that resulted from the change in ideology and government system in 1991 and was able to move the country into a positive economic course. 

This years election had 3 opposition candidates, the communist party candidate, Nicholas Kharitonov ran on a platform of progressive taxes rather than the present flat rate tax of 17% on all, lowering the retirement age and eliminating taxes for low income citizens. He received 4.6% of the vote. The communist party sometimes receives as much as 25% of the vote in local elections.

The Liberal Democratic party (LDPR), Leonid Slutsky, advocates closer ties to Asia, and tighter restriction on foreign agents and accelerating the campaign in Ukraine. He received 3 % of the vote.

The New People's Party candidate was Vladislav Davankov, advocates Peace and negotiations, received 4.2% of the vote.

With 94% of the votes counted, Putin received 87% of the vote.

While the west portrays the elections in Russia as illegitimate, they use paper ballots, filled out in secure booths very similar to those in the U.S. It is unlikely that any serious change in the direction of the Russian government is imminent even when Putin is no longer a candidate. 

The continuous accusations and hysteria against anything Russian has solidified to the Russians that the west is an existential enemy. This is more a result of the narrative and actions of the west than the policies of Putin.


Friday, March 15, 2024

EU wary of confiscating Russian assets, retaliation for sure.

 SANCTIONS AND ECONOMIC WARFARE HAS UNEXPECTED COSTS

POLITICIANS WON'T PAY COSTS


The U.S. and UK are urging the EU to confiscate Russian assets and transfer the money to Ukraine. While some of the money may go to Ukraine much of it will pay for weapons and supplies. Over $300 billion in Russian assets have been frozen, most of it in EU banks. Confiscation would most likely lead to retaliation by Russia against EU companies with assets in Russia. Just yesterday Russia decided to not confiscate French yogurt maker Danone's assets. The company is still operating in Russia. Those companies that have decided to leave Russia are negotiating to recover some value for those assets.

Russia has indicated that they may actually sever diplomatic relations with any EU country that confiscated assets and hinted at severe retaliation. The long list of sanctions against Russia have proven to damage EU business and economies more than Russia. 

The other concern is a rapid flight of foreign assets out of EU banks by other non European countries that could possibly create a banking crisis in the EU.

Recently Russia has suspended a fishing treaty with the UK that has been in effect since 1956 that allowed the UK to fish in Russian waters in Barents sea. Some have estimated that 40% of UK fish came from these waters, but the UK dismissed the action as immaterial. Will the UK now see a rise in fish prices?

The recent action in the U.S. to demand that TIK TOK be sold to U.S. parties is really another form of sanctions and economic warfare. Has anyone considered if China may retaliate and demand that Boeing, General Motors or other U.S. companies be forced to divest from their assets in China. One must wonder how short sighted many of these decisions have become.

These types of sanctions and economic warfare have historically preceded major world warfare. At one time most of these issues could have been negotiated by serious diplomacy, something that is now nonexistent. As this escalation continues chances of diplomatic solutions may soon be impossible.



Thursday, March 14, 2024

Banning TIKTOK, goodbye youth vote?

 HOUSE VOTES TO BAN OR FORCE SALE OF TIK TOK

WE WILL SEE HOW WELL THIS SELLS


Yesterday The House of Representatives voted to ban Tik Tok or force its sale to U.S. media companies. It looks like just another abuse of power to feather the nests of the domestic media companies and also give the state more ability to define the election messaging and and reap data for its database. It most likely will pass the Senate and be quickly signed by Biden. Tik Tok may have a case for the court in an obvious first amendment case.  While it may appear to be a victory for the state, we will see how a prolonged court battle and how the younger generation view this action.

This decision may very well set off a response that that many elected official have not anticipated. The younger generation of Americans can now be witness to the overreach of the government into something that most elected officials have no idea how much Tik Tok is used by American youth, many who are voting age. Tik Tok should take up the fight, and refuse to be bullied  into submission. Let them ban it, and then we can watch the show.

I expect that some politicians, if they are aware, are seeing the blood in the water. A lot of republicans took this vote, hoping to capitalize on the, "hate everything China fever" They may soon find out that not everyone hates everything China and definitely not Tik Tok. 

The first shot was fired by Donald Trump, very astute at defining political opportunity, when he noted that Facebook and others will stand to gain and that many politicians will now have their hand out for recompense. It is indeed an opportunity for any who is willing to alert the youth vote to the abuses of the state that until now they have never contemplated.

I actually have never used Tik Tok, but my children and grandchildren love Tik Tok and I doubt that any of them can see it as a threat to national security. The action by the politicians may very well be viewed as a real threat to their pursuit of happiness.



Wednesday, March 13, 2024

Brief history of U.S. Russian relations, Part 1 and 2.

 

U.S. RUSSIAN RELATIONS SINCE WW2 PART 1

DISTRUST IS ROOTED IN THE PAST

Image result for yalta conference photos


The relationship between Russia and the United States is an extension of the deals made after WW2 between the United States, Great Britain and The Soviet Union. These decisions were made at a series of conferences held and decisions made by Joseph Stalin, Franklin Roosevelt, and Winston Churchill.

The first was the Cairo Conference, Nov. 22 to 26 1943, followed closely by the Tehran conference held at the Soviet embassy in Iran. These early conferences dealt with the plan to win the war in Europe. From the record it is evident that Stalin was the dominate figure in these talks. While it was agreed to coordinate their attacks on Germany, Stalin was already making good on taking advantage of a crisis. Stalin already in 1943 won agreement on the support for the communist partisans in Yugoslavia and the USSR moving the border of eastern Poland in their favor. While Churchill would have liked to resist these decisions, he was in the weakest position, Stalin already had troops in much of eastern Europe, the U.S. was the main producer of war equipment on which all were dependent, Britain was hanging on for their survival.
The conferences held in Yalta in Crimea Feb 4 to 11,1945 had mostly to do with the partition of Germany and the transition of Europe from war to peace. It also guaranteed the self determination of the countries of eastern Europe, this included Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Austria and other countries already occupied by the Soviet Union and the allies. Both Churchill and Roosevelt were strongly criticized for these arrangements, many knowing that Stalin would not hold up his side of the bargain.  Roosevelt had brushed off warnings of a potential domination by a Stalin dictatorship in part of Europe. He explained that "I just have a hunch that Stalin is not that kind of a man," and reasoned, "I think that if I give him everything I possibly can and ask for nothing from him in return, 'noblesse oblige,' he won't try to annex anything and will work with me for a world of democracy and peace" One must take note in the book the "Gulag Archipelago" by Aleksander Solzhenitsyn , he made mention that when Eleanor Roosevelt visited the Soviet Union in 1957, she mentioned the improvements in education, medical care and sanitation, but neglected to discuss that some of worst atrocities in human history had been perpetrated. Whether she knew about this or not is not clear, but the Roosevelt's had an affinity for Socialism and at the time the Soviet Union was the idol of many advocates of this form of government.
The final conference was held in Potsdam, occupied Germany, July 17 to Aug. 2 1945. This was attended by Stalin, Truman, and Atlee for Great Britain. This finalized the partition of Germany and Austria, a share given to France that was to be taken out of the U.S. and British partitions. This also decided the division of Vietnam at the 16th parallel and granted some Japanese Islands to the Soviet Union even though they didn't participate in war with Japan. Truman tried to take a tougher stance, but the Soviet Union occupied these countries with a very large experienced army. It was not long until Stalin installed Communist governments in all these countries. There were some, including George Patton, who advocated the invasion of the Soviet Union and the freeing of these countries, while it was not a viable plan while Roosevelt was president, Truman, after acquiring the Atomic bomb,  could have used it as leverage to negotiate freedom and free elections in eastern Europe. Most everyone had their fill of war and it was not possible to win support for such a plan. The cold war had begun. Anti-Communist fear and resistance, with good cause, became the policy of the U.S and the democratic countries of the west.


This was originally published 1/9/17. It is the first of 7 parts.


U.S. RUSSIAN RELATIONS SINCE WW2 PART 2

COLD WAR YEARS




Immediately following WW2 the chess game of pushing the advantage between the expansion of Communism and self government began.  The Soviet Union under Stalin was relentless in probing for opportunities to advance the ideology of global communism. In 1946 a civil war in Greece between Communist and royalist factions began. This was followed by the Chinese communist revolution in the same year, this civil war lasted until 1949 when 600,000 Chinese Nationalist troops and 2 million civilians fled to Taiwan. An estimated 10,000,000 died in this conflict and the dispute with Taiwan is still ongoing.

 After the defeat of Japan, Korea above the 38th parallel and Vietnam above the 16th parallel were to be administered by China. When the Civil war in China came to an end, they almost immediately invaded South Korea on June 25th 1950, this war lasted until July 27, 1953. 21 UN countries participated, 88% of the troops were from the U.S. U.S. air power was the determining factor. The North Koreans were supported by China and the USSR. Many of the N. Korean aircraft were piloted by Russian airmen. Gen. Douglas MacArthur proposed using Nuclear weapons to take on the Chinese, that idea was rejected by Truman. This dispute is still ongoing.

 At the same time pressure was brought against South Vietnam which was still a French colony, this continued until 1954 when the French pulled out. It was not long before the U.S. began giving aid to the South Vietnam and escalated into the Vietnam war in which 50,000 U.S. troops were killed, the U.S. eventually pulled out and Vietnam fell to the communists.

In Europe it was much of the same, in 1948 the USSR blockaded West Berlin and the allies commenced with the Berlin airlift to supply allied areas of Berlin. East Germany put up a fence to keep the population from fleeing to the west and eventually built the Berlin Wall, many were shot while trying to flee  communist rule. Stalin proclaimed that war with the U.S. was inevitable. The USSR tested its first atomic bomb on Aug. 29, 1949. The U.S. developed a plan for the defense of Western Europe from a Soviet invasion. It was called "Operation Dropshot", and called for the saturation of the Soviet Union with Atomic bombs and a large ground invasion.

The USSR now controlled the countries of Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Romania, Albania, and East Germany. Yugoslavia was an independent communist state under Tito. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were ceded to the USSR by the allies in 1940. This became know as the "Warsaw Pact". It must be noted that the USSR suffered 40,000,000 deaths in WW2, far more than any of the other combatants. WW2  put most of their major cities in ruins, it could be understood that they were obsessed with a buffer zone for their security.

It was a tense time with civil defense drills in the U.S. and western Europe with instructions in schools to protect ones self in the event of Nuclear War. Many believed that a third world war was now imminent. To counter the threat from the soviet block, Belgium, Luxemburg, France, Netherlands and the United Kingdom agreed to cooperate in their mutual defense with the treaty of Brussels in 1948. This was followed with the formation of the "North Atlantic Treaty Organization" on April 4, 1949. It consisted of the 5 nations of the treaty of Brussels plus, the United States, Canada, Portugal, Italy, Norway, Denmark and Iceland, a total of 12 nations.  The forming of NATO and the support of the United states is probably what avoided the conflict. That and the death of Stalin in 1953.

Stalin was replaced by Nikita Khrushchev, who made many attempts at reform, he was a bit of a colorful character who is famous for his many typical Russian quotations, he was still a die hard communist who pursued the idea of global Communism, but lifted the dismal dark burden from the Russian people. His quote about Stalin is telling.


Tuesday, March 12, 2024

Please explain the danger of Tik Tok.

 IS IT THE LACK OF GOVERNMENT CONTROL THAT IS THE FEAR?

HOW IS TIK TOK GOING TO PUT OUR CHILDREN AND COUNTRY AT RISK?


We have been hearing about the danger that Tik Tok is going to have on the future of our children and the country, yet no one has yet explained how this danger is going to be realized. Is it enough for our intelligence community to just declare Tik Tok a danger and we should all jump to the conclusion that they have credible evidence. Evidence that has yet been explained or is it just too secret to be revealed? 

So we are to believe that the Chinese Communist Party is going to store all this data and use it on our children and possibly cause some risk to security of the country. 

To be honest, I am more concerned with the data that Facebook, Google and every other U.S. social media company sells to the federal government and is stored in the NSA data center. I see no good purpose for that information and believe it is more of a risk to ours and our children's future. This government has far more of an ability to interfere with our lives than the Chinese Communist Party.

I suspect that what is really going on is that the U.S. media companies lust after owning Tik Tok and are using the state to bring about the transfer of ownership to them as another part of the collaboration. In return, the intelligence community will get all the data that can be added to their database and also control over what kind of messages are displayed on Tik Tok.

It is very reminiscent of mafia tactics to take control of any lucrative business through intimidation, except these actors have the unlimited power of the state. We must remember our state does have unlimited power to make our lives difficult, if not non existent. It is the entity to be feared, not some media company thousands of miles away.




Monday, March 11, 2024

Are Macron and Trump engaged in reverse psychology?

 SMOKING OUT EU LEADERS

WHO REALLY WANTS TO SEND TROOPS TO UKRAINE?


Much has been made of Donald Trump's remarks about NATO members that are not spending their committed amount of resources on military preparedness. He claimed he, as president, would not commit to defend them if they failed to prepare for their own defense. We heard outrage and also political attacks by his opponents. The reality is that even the head of NATO had to admit that NATO was more prepared after 4 years of Trump, because of the pressure by him on the members to plan for their defense. Todays statements are more of the same, a wake up call to NATO to stop depending on the United States to save the world. Another reality is, the United States is no longer going to be able to control the world, no matter who is the next president.

Much of the existing system in the United States needs reevaluation and reform, from a bloated defense budget that is spent on, no one actually knows, because it is reported to be too complicated to audit. One must suspect with the present shortages of basic ammunitions that much is spent on satisfying donors and buying allies and engaging in regime change operations. We are right to suspect that more money is not the answer, but a serious evaluation of priorities.

Then we have Macron of France who has been rattling sabers about EU troops to Ukraine, take note that he has not signaled NATO troops but individual efforts by EU members. It seems only the Baltic states and Poland have signaled weak positive support. While the Baltic states military is insignificant the Polish may be able to field 200,000 soldiers, the French combined military may be another 200,000.  Combined they are unlikely to be able to field more than 80,000 combat ready forces. Any such adventure would quickly require a move to institute a draft. Any such move would likely shut down France quickly with protests from the majority of their citizens. It is clear Macron is talking nonsense and is more likely to be signalling that the EU needs to decide soon about whether they want to continue this effort in Ukraine. He has received his answer and it is clear that EU support to send troops to Ukraine is not going to happen.

The reality is that the EU really needs Russian resources to have a positive future. Since they themselves have cut themselves off from these resources and it now appears that this situation may be permanent, with Russia finding willing economic partners in other parts of the world. They do not have the military will or resources to take these resources and they will now be forced to reanalyze their priorities for a positive future. That will put their green agenda in danger as it is not compatible with a modern industrial society. 

It appears that 2024 will indeed be a year of self examination by all the western countries, and the alternatives will all cause economic and social pain. The worst alternative is to stay on the present course.


 

Friday, March 8, 2024

Biden's dark vision for the future, More of the same.

 PATHETIC, DIVISIVE AND OUT OF TOUCH WITH REALITY

SAD STATEMENT ON THE STATE OF THE UNION



I managed to watch most of the Biden's so called "State of the Union" speech. It was filled with hatred for the political opposition, a threat to destroy the institution of the supreme court, and a doubling down on aggressive wars to be expected around the world. I saw no positive vision of the future, but a dark vision that promises more violence, more war and embracing of perversion and destructive social policies. A sad commentary on the "State of the Union", a union that is as divided as never before.

Historically the "State of Union" was intended to be a positive, uplifting and positive view of the future, this speech was a view into the soul and heart of this administration, a administration controlled by evil, an evil that will destroy this nation if not much of the world.

This nation needs a very significant change of direction, an embracing of the virtues and principles that has made this nation the most successful in history. Time is indeed running out, the nation is bankrupt, amassing a huge debt, growing the debt by $1 trillion every 100 days. Overrun with illegal immigrants that will tax and strain the social, educational and health network that keeps this nation running. 

This nation has engaged in or orchestrated foreign military conflicts that killed millions, displaced 10' s of millions, and continues with a policy of economic, social and military intervention all around the world. We have expended our inheritance, good reputation and our prosperity for the future in a shameful display of attempting to rule the world. At one time by a policy of persuasion and displaying our just and virtuous example of our nation to the rest of world. In the last 30 years in our hubris and contempt for the rest of the world we have squandered every bit of this inheritance.

We continue to believe that we can rule by military might and at the same time we have lost our manufacturing base and the ability to be self sufficient even in the basic necessities of life. This speech is a testimony to the poor leadership that has deluded this nation into believing that they are the masters of the Universe, a situation that is no longer possible and our survival will depend on the ability to adapt and co-exist in a not changing word, but a changed world. 

We are witnesses to an era that is not governed by sound policy but by lies and deceit that been woven into a narrative to maintain a  continuation of power and control. It is going to fail, it is failing, the evidence is right before our eyes, if we are willing to see it.