So far, the U.S. has enjoyed escalation dominance.

 WILL IRAN ATTEMPT TO END THAT DOMINANCE?

CAN THE U.S. CONTROL THIS CONFLICT? 

 

In reality, this Iran conflict has now been going on for over 1 year, while it has had pauses,  Israel and the U.S. has had the ability to start and pause this conflict at will. First the June 2025 attack by Israel that decimated Iran's scientists and leadership, then Trumps attack on their nuclear sites, followed by a declared victory and end, mostly because Israel was being badly damaged by Iran's missile attacks. Many believed that was not the end of it, and they were right,  the war was resumed in February 2026 and only when the threat of an oil crisis and a waning ability to keep up, was a ceasefire called for by Trump.  Then the MOU, which many never believed the U.S. would ever agree to, and now we are back to war.  The U.S. and Israel has enjoyed what is called "Escalation Dominance" in that they have been able to escalate, then pause whenever they chose. Iran has been accommodating every time, agreeing to pause whenever necessary.

 

We continue to hear threats of escalation from Trump and Iran has continued to retaliate only to those escalations. It has been very predictable., at least until now. While we hear threats of a ground invasion by Trump, no one has considered a ground invasion of Kuwait and Bahrain by Iran. Both countries, with large Shia populations would not be able to defend against such an invasion and even the UAE, country of elites with foreign workers could only survive with the aid of the U.S. A ground war that would now be mandated, not a war of the choice.

 

While Iran would also suffer greatly, it would be the end of the oil diplomacy and the end of escalation dominance it would now be a war requiring real casualties and real losses, on both sides. It would immediately set off a global energy crisis and a global economic crisis, plus political damage in much of the world.

 

We can only hope that does not happen, that some wisdom will prevail and this game playing with the world security will be ended and ended soon.

 

 

  

War escalates, Will Navy be next target?

 WILL TRUMP SOON DECLARE VICTORY?

RUMORS ARE THAT IT IS TIME TO COME HOME

 

While the war with Iran seems to be intensifying and somehow Israel, who wanted this war for decades is missing in action, speculation is that Trump will soon declare victory and claim all objectives have been achieved and now it it up to the gulf nations and those who need oil from the gulf to maintain that victory. 

 

Trump can claim that their nuclear program is destroyed, its Navy and air force obliterated and that Iran will need decades to recover from this war. It is now only six weeks to the start of intense domestic political campaigns and only weeks left before oil becomes a crisis. It is the most logical avenue for Trump to detach from this war, without taking major losses both militarily and politically.

 

Iran's missile capability is proving to be very accurate and sustainable, while Iran is taking punishment, any hope of surrender is unlikely. Many are now speculating that Trump will end this in as little as 2 more weeks. 

 

While it will be a victory for Iran in that it has survived, it will not be a victory documented with a deal that is an obvious defeat for the U.S. It can then be claimed by weeks of media narrative that Trump has won and that Iran is no longer a threat to world peace. It may the best result that is obtainable.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Negotiations dead everywhere.

 WARS INTENSIFY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE

NEGOTIATIONS JUST PLOY TO GAIN ADVANTAGE 

 

It is doubtful that Iran will reenter any negotiations with the U.S., it is all now attacks by the U.S. and retaliation by Iran.  There has been much discussion abut Kushner and Witkoff, not ever seriously engaging in negotiations,  Iran claims it has documented proof that both were more interested in using negotiations and revelations about the negotiations to profit in market trading. No one doubts that Trump's messaging has allowed many to make enormous profits by the markets reactions to his messaging.

 

Same can apply to the Russia Ukraine war, most attempts at negotiations were a ploy to get a ceasefire to allow Ukraine to rearm and reposition.  There is now no indication that Russia will resume any quest for a negotiated settlement. While the U.S. narrative is that Ukraine is making strides, it is all just a narrative, while Ukraine has been able to strike Russia's oil business and ships in the Azov, on the ground, were wars are won or lost,  Russia is now focusing on the last remaining fortified strongholds in Ukraine. They upped their intensity and are increasing their moves to the west. They have still refrained from destroying Ukraine's bridges over the Dnieper, which would make their logistic support very difficult.  

 

On Iran it seems that everyone wants to deny that Iran has the military capability to  destroy the oil infrastructure of the gulf and to even make most of those countries uninhabitable by destroying their desalination plants. While Iran makes it clear they would rather not do that, it seems everyone in the U.S. establishment wants to see if they will do it, I guess we will soon find out. So far, Iran has had a policy of retaliating against U.S. attacks, rather than go all out in an aggressive offensive policy. If they do, we can then expect a call for a ceasefire and negotiations from the U.S. 

 

It appears that these wars will continue until someone can no longer resist and it's still not clear who that will be.  Neither war is an existential threat to the U.S. but it is such a situation for Iran and Russia, they will not be submitting any time soon. 

 

 

 

 

 

Wanted, Fighters willing to die in Iran.

 TRUMP SAYS OTHERS WILL MAN GROUND WAR

CURRENT BOMBING IS PREP FOR GROUND ACTION 

 

Indications are the U.S. is planning some type of ground action in Iran, probably some  action to take physical control of the strait of Hormuz. While most military analysts claim this is a long shot for success, it may be a desperate hope for a victory. Trump has stated that some other force rather than U.S. forces will do the ground operation. 

 

The Kurd's who were propositioned early on, have so far, said no.  Trump also indicated that the Syrian ISIS may take over for Israel in Lebanon, we will have to see if that is going to happen. Are they really that much in love with Israel to die in Lebanon? Will the gulf countries come up with a force to go into Iran, so far the gulf countries have put their hopes on the U.S. not the other way around.

 

Of course, the biggest most modern and well equipped ground army in the region is Turkey. Recently Trump promised then f-35's and maybe other incentives, but it could be difficult for even Erdogan to convince his military to go to war on behalf of the U.S. and Israel,  after all, Turkey needs to be preparing for Israel's proposed war on Turkey.

 

I do not see any European coalition of the willing to take on Iran, while they are still focused on war with Russia. 

 

It is reported that the U.S. has 50,000 troops in the region, a force large enough to enter Iran, but most likely not enough to prevail for any length of time. 

 

Then of course there is Israel, Netanyahu has claimed a ground action is necessary, is Israel ready to send 200 or 300,000 troops across Iraq to enter Iran. We can assume they can and will  since they consider Iran an existential risk for them. 

 

In the 1991 war with Iraq, it took the U.S. 6 months to position 600,000 troops and provisions in Saudi Arabia to invade a flat desert country 1/4 the size of Iran. Any attempt to mass such a force would be under attack on day 1 of even bringing the necessary troops and provisions. We can assume that any attack would need to be amassed in Israel and Jordan and  travel 1000 miles before reaching the border. Longer than traveling across Ukraine to get to Russia. 

 

The analysts are most likely correct a ground war with Iran is a bad idea, It has been a bad idea for 4 decades and it may be even a worse idea today. 

 

We need to hope that Trump is bluffing, for the lives of our soldiers, his best hope is to declare victory and go home. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MOU now officially void.

 ONLY CHOICES, ESCALATION OR GO HOME

UNLIKELY THAT SHIPS WILL BE GOING THROUGH STRAIT 

 

The now irrelevant MOU was the last chance for peaceful resolution of the Iran conflict. What come next will not open traffic through the strait, we can now expect an extended spreading economic crisis for the foreseeable future. 

 

The only choices left is escalating military action or just plain exiting the gulf and going home. It is most likely that due to internal and external pressure, Trump will escalate even possibly attempt to take control of the strait with ground troops. Iran may very well not resist a landing of ground troops, but what comes after that will be a prolonged extended catastrophe with many causalities and still no one is going to send ships through the strait.

 

Ship owners, insurance companies and merchant mariners will  not risk their assets and lives for political jousting over control of the strait. As long as hostilities continue, the strait will be closed. 

 

Negotiations have proved to be unreliable with negotiators killed, immediate back tracking and it is unlikely that any attempt at negotiation will be coming.

 

Actually the choices now are far simpler, there are only 2, both very unpleasant, but do not require a lot of real diplomacy or thought. It seems there was a real lack of any of that anyway.

 

This decision does not have the luxury of time, the clock is running out,  we can expect a decision within just few weeks at most.

 

 

 

 

 

More desperate moves, Trump trapped.

 DOUBLING DOWN, RISKING CATASTROPHE

NETANYAHU KNEW HIS MAN 

 

Yesterday, Trump announced he was going to be the guardian of the strait of Hormuz for a slight fee of 20 % of  the value of all goods passing through the strait. His plan now makes Iran's plan a real bargain in comparison. Most question if it is possible for the U.S. to actually take control of the strait, we could speculate, if that was possible, it would have been attempted before now, rather than a last minute gamble.

 

While it is claimed that the Iranians broke the MOU, it can be pointed out that the first issue with the MOU, considered a strong sign of good faith by the U.S. was the repaying of 1/2 of Iran's frozen assets. It never happened, the U.S. tried to repay it, by issuing a credit that they could buy goods from the U.S. particularity agriculture products. Iran wanted real money not a credit. It is clear that the U.S. never wanted to honor the terms of the MOU,  hoping it could renegotiate by stalling, changing the terms and restore oil inventories while the strait was open. It seems that is all history, at least for now. 

 

The reality is that Iran had agreed to most of the things that the U.S. wanted in Geneva in February, immediately before this war started. Now, Iran is  no longer trusting anything that is proposed by the U.S. This situation is similar to the deal reached in Turkey in April 2023 that would have preserved the borders of Ukraine and allowed Ukraine to be prosperous independent country, It would have had to be a militarily neutral country.i It was squashed by the UK and the U.S. in the same way that Netanyahu squashed the hope of any resolution with Iran. It appears that Israel was informed of the possible deal and made sure that it was impossible to have a real deal in the future. 

 

It is no secret that every time Netanyahu came to Washington he had folders of targets in Iran, It can be assumed that Israel knew that killing the Ayatollah and the leadership of Iran and the school girls would become a tactic that the Iranians could never forget. It would cause a war with Iran and the United States, a war that Trump would have a hard time not being a winner and Iran would have lost all faith in any negotiations with the U.S.  Yes, Trump pulled the trigger and now he is hog tied like a rodeo steer, unable to  overcome his hubris and possibly fearing retribution from Israel if he backs down. 

 

While this war between the U.S and Iran escalates, we no longer hear from Netanyahu or Israel even participating in the war. Remarkable accomplishment to bring about a war between the U.S. and Iran in the hope that the U.S. will destroy Iran.  

 

Anyway, it appears Trump is desperate for a win, and may sacrifice his presidency and the position of the U.S. going forward, rather than cut his losses and go home and resume rebuilding the U.S. for the future. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

War back on, Are more bombs the answer?

 CAN IRAN OUTLAST OILS AVAILABILITY?

STRAIT CLOSED AGAIN 

 

At least for now, the Iran war is back on, so far, Trump has been able to stop the war by agreeing to Iran's terms, or a ceasefire.  One has to wonder what happens if Iran decides not to stop on Trump's cue in the future? What is clear is that Iran still has enough capability to damage U.S. bases and the ability to damage Gulf infrastructure, if it desires. Any escalation that includes long term damage to oil producing infrastructure will bring about global economic chaos. 

 

There is much speculation that the price of oil has been manipulated, either by government action or collaboration of financial sector or a cooperation by both. It is estimated that 1.5 billion barrels of oil have been taken out of the oil market, yet the price is within single digits of the pre war price. People who understand the logistics of the oil markets believe there has been massive short selling to cause this to happen. Eventually this will become unsustainable, particularly if oil flows are not resumed and resumed very soon.

 

Many are warning that the global reserves, including the United States, are within weeks of being depleted. When that actually happens it will be a matter of availability, not only price. One has to wonder if this latest resumption of hostilities is a last ditch effort to force Iran to give up control of the strait of Hormuz. Iran understands, that without this leverage, they will be vulnerable to long term economic coercion. Iran needs to stake its existence on retaining control over the strait, it is that simple. Trump needs to have the strait open to avoid global economic catastrophe and it needs to happen very soon. 

 

Military action by either the use of nuclear weapons or a massive ground action, may not result in an increase in oil flow, but the end of oil flowing for the foreseeable future. More military action is a huge gamble. The alternative is to  give up control of the strait to Iran and Oman, which will change the political reality of the whole region, but will allow the continuation of the economic health of the globe.  It is massive change to world political order with either outcome, the consequences of a poorly thought out war.