Day 14, Iran retaliates to every escalation.

 ISRAEL EARLY WARNING DOWN TO 90 SECONDS

TARGETS EXPAND TO WATER, OIL PRODUCTION AND BANKS

2 weeks into this war and it does not appear to be near an end. The strait is still impassable unless receiving permission from Iran. Ships must have prior individual permission. More refineries and other production facilities in the gulf are shutting down as they are soon out of storage space.  It could take several weeks to restart many of these facilities. 

There is still oil in transit as it takes from 19 to 35 days for oil to reach Europe. 20 to 30 days to Japan. The real crunch will begin in another 2 weeks, and even if open, could be critical for a month after that. There is going to be a severe oil related economic situation within the next 2 weeks. Today's Crude futures  price is at $95. Fertilizer price, made from natural gas, has risen substantially and there could be shortages.

Iran continues to hit U.S. bases and Israel. It has launched its 44th wave of attacks on Israel and due to elimination of much of the radar in the gulf their early warning is now down to 90 seconds which essentially means it is best to remain in shelters  at all times. Hezbollah also launched 100 missiles into Israel yesterday.  A larger percentage of these missiles are reportedly now hitting as the loss of radar has hampered effectiveness of defenses.

Iran seems to be now reciprocating attacks. If their oil facilities are attacked they hit oil facilities in the gulf. If their water desalination facilities, they respond by attacking such facilities in the gulf or Israel. They have also stated that are going to begin targeting western banks and investment facilities. Their warnings seem to usually be followed by real attacks.

So far, the strategy seems to be to keep increasing the bombing until Iran capitulates. Can the bombing be increased? While it is claimed to be unlimited, I doubt there is any such thing as unlimited. It now seems to be a war of attrition, and existential threat to Iran's survival, but not the U.S.  We can expect that within 2 weeks serious economic consequences will be reality and increase after that. Is there a plan B?

Day 13, Declare Victory or double down?

THIS IS WHAT A WAR TRAP LOOKS LIKE 

LOOSING FACE IS A HARD OPTION

We have heard that this war is almost over. We have heard that there are no more targets left to hit. We have heard that if Iran doesn't capitulate they will bombed like never before. 

Yesterday, Iran launched wave 40 of missile attacks on Israel that lasted over 5 hours. It is reported, but not verified by Israel, that there were many missile impacts. At least 3 ships were damaged near the strait of Hormuz and contrary to all threats it is still not allowing commerce through this vital passageway. 

The clock is ticking until this war will begin to have global economic consequences. The Oil futures price today is $91, gas in Pa, is now $3.80, Diesel $5.19 and Home heating oil $4.80. If no resolution of this war, it will go much higher and begin to have domestic economic consequences.

Implications are far greater in some other parts of the world and the possibility of more players entering this conflict is growing.

The leader of the Iraqi Kurds has stated that they are not guns for hire and it is not their war. 

Trump has been advised by some Senators and military to declare victory and end this war. Israel can not take daily punishment and a dysfunctional economy forever. No one has proposed a plan that will insure safe passage through the strait of Hormuz. Iran has publicly stated that there will be no new negotiations or end to this war unless their demands are met.

One can assume that Netanyahu understood the psychology of Donald Trump very well and knew that if this war started, Trump would want to end as a winner, any backdown would look like weakness and have global and domestic implications. We can only assume that we will soon see a doubling down of this conflict and even the possibility of introducing ground troops to secure the strait of Hurmuz. This will result in many casualties and the need for further escalation.

At the same time Israel will be eventually be put into the position of facing its doom and as it has done numerous times in the past, threaten the use of nuclear weapons.  It could be expected that this critical period will come in just a few weeks.

It takes a lot of humility and real courage to change course, it will be the ultimate test, so far, of Trumps presidency.

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Day 12, Trump, Mariners have no guts!

 WHY IS EVERYONE STILL JUSTIFYING WAR?

EVERYDAY BOASTS OF MORE DEATH AND DESTRUCTION

In press conferences and even talk radio there is still endless diatribe about justification for this war. Glenn Beck has gone as far as to label this war as a fight against the Anti-Christ, an all out war of good against evil. Hegseth and others justification is a moving target that we have all have heard, from Iran's nuclear weapons, to imminent attack from Iran. The attempt to make this a religious war is by far, the most desperate and dangerous aspect of their justification. Symptoms of Anti-Christ behavior are evident in many places. In fact, in everyone who supports this war. Those who wanted this war, have it, why the continuous demonization in justification? Of course we know why, there is no popular support for this war, and as it goes on it will decline even more.

Yesterday, Trump accused Merchant Mariners of having no guts, for not moving ships through the strait of Hormuz, I did not hear of any U.S. warships moving through the strait, does his accusations apply to them, he can order them to do so. Maybe Trump or Netanyahu should show them how it's done and pilot the first ship through. Merchant Mariners risk their life every voyage in the the dangers of ocean navigation, these seaman are from every country in the world, often from numerous countries on the same ship. This is not their war, and if it continues, many will be looking for ways to get off those ships stranded in the Persian gulf and go home.

While reports out of Israel are nonexistent, it is clear that most all the radar facilities in the gulf region have become non operational, as well as much of the communications in the region. Early warnings of incoming missiles is now just minutes before impact in Israel. It seems radar from NATO bases in Turkey are substituting for the lost radars. 

Daily reports from Hegsteth and Trump threaten that everyday the attacks on Iran will be bigger than the last. One has to wonder how these munitions will be replaced and resupplied. Yesterday was the 37th wave of missiles fired by Iran, they are fewer, but bigger and more accurate.

While the crude oil price has stabilized around $85 a barrel there are actual shortages and rationing in Australia and anticipated similar results in the EU. 

It seems this war is settling into a war of attrition, limited real information being available, other than the threats of escalation and cheering on. I suspect that Israel may be the first to find the war no longer sustainable.

Day 11, Is Trump looking for an offramp?

 IT WILL TAKE 3 TO TANGO

IRAN MAY BE COMMITTED TO LONG TERM RESOLUTION

In last nights press conference, Trump indicted that the war was mostly won. He listed all the destruction in Iran and claimed that they have little ability to continue the war. It sounded like he would be willing to end this, even without surrender from Iran.

It may be no coincidence that it is day 11, a time that will require resupply of Navy ships, possibly in India, since the gulf bases are not functional. a possible looming shortage of interceptors, and the continued disruption of fuel through the strait of Hormuz. The forecast of a long drawn out affair could be lethal to this President's domestic agenda. A victory for his enemies in the bureaucratic state and his opponents in both parties. 

For one, he cannot quit unless Israel agrees, and they may soon do just that. Then he has the psychopathic bloodthirsty neocons led by Lindsey, "kill them all" Graham, who seems almost orgasmic at the hope of death, blood and destruction. This seems to be the case of Benjamin Netanyahu as well. Then if he convinces these factions, he has to convince Iran that it is their best interest to quit now and fight again in the future, when Israel and the U.S. can rearm, and resupply. 

Trump has proposed several ceasefires and has been rejected, I suspect Iran now believes that if we are to die, it might as well be now. It may be their last chance to at least survive as a country and they will be able to cause lots of suffering for their attackers.

Day 10, Economic consequences begin.

 WILL OIL MARKETS TRIGGER GLOBAL RECESSION?

RESTORING TRAFFIC THROUGH THE STRAIT MAY NOW BE PRIORITY

It is getting increasingly difficult to understand exactly how things are going in the war, as all nations involved have clamped down on videos and reporting. People are actually being arrested for taking videos. It is also reported that phone communication originating in the U.S. to Iran has been cut off, but communication from Iran to the U.S. is still open.

Devastating attacks on Tehran are ongoing and in the latest escalation the U.S. or Israel has attacked Iran's oil infrastructure with oily black clouds now spreading in the region and some say will travel as far as China. If Iran now retaliates against oil infrastructure it could soon be a serious environmental catastrophe.

It seems Iran is still focusing on the U.S. military infrastructure with continued attacks on bases and radar installations. Attacks on Israel continue, but seem to be less in number but more continual to keep everyone hunkered down in shelters. The economy in Israel is most likely near a standstill. Netanyahu has forbidden all attempts of citizens and duel citizens to leave the country.

At this hour Crude oil futures are at $101. per barrel. Fridays close was $92 and it had risen to over $110 for a period over the weekend. The prices in the U.S. for gas and Fuel oil will reset this afternoon and can be expected to rise substantially. Gas rose 30 cents last week and will probably rise more than that this week. While the U.S. produces much crude it depends on foreign refining capacity as there are fewer refiners still running in the U.S.  Prices of refined products have skyrocketed particularly for aviation fuel. Fertilizer prices have already risen by 70 %, complicating farmers plans for the spring planting. We can expect that all prices will start rising significantly in the near future.

We may expect a shifting of priorities from decimating Tehran to efforts to secure passage through the strait of Hormuz. It could be a very costly engagement, while Iran is allowing some ships to pass, an actual military effort to open, could result in being physically blocked for many months. I would expect this has to be opened or a global financial downturn is imminent.

The N word is increasingly being used either from a frustrated U.S. or a panicked Israel. One wonders if there is the stable leadership available in either country to resist that move. The possibility of the expansion of this war to include much of Europe and then Russia and China increases with every escalation. 

Letter to Trump, by influential and well respected Gulf representitive.

 HOW DO GULF LEADERS FEEL ABOUT WAR?

HOW WILL THIS EFFECT FUTURE GLOBAL RELATIONS?

Below is letter  sent to Donald Trump by a well respected and influential member of the Gulf countries. He is from the UAE which is considered an ally of the U.S. and even Israel. I suspect most Americans will rather hear the diatribe from U.S. media of how wonderful this war is and will continue to refuse to listen to what people in other parts of the world might have to say. 

The day is coming when the U.S. may very well need the good will of both our friends and adversaries and we are burning up that good will not only now, but for the last few decades.

Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor

@KhalafAlHabtoor

·

Mar 5

Translated from Arabic

His Excellency President Donald Trump, A direct question: Who gave you the authority to drag our region into a war with #Iran? And on what basis did you make this dangerous decision? Did you calculate the collateral damage before pulling the trigger? And did you consider that the first to suffer from this escalation will be the countries of the region itself! The peoples of this region have the right to ask as well: Was this your decision alone? Or did it come as a result of pressures from #Netanyahu and his government? You have placed the countries of the #GulfCooperationCouncil and the Arab countries at the heart of a danger they did not choose. Thank God, we are strong and capable of defending ourselves, and we have armies and defenses that protect our homelands, but the question remains: Who gave you permission to turn our region into a battlefield? For before the ink has dried on the #BoardOfPeace initiative that you announced in the name of peace and stability, we find ourselves facing a military escalation that endangers the entire region. So where did those initiatives go? And what is the fate of the commitments made in the name of peace? Most of the funding proposed in those initiatives came from the countries of the region themselves, and from Arab Gulf countries that contributed billions of dollars on the basis of supporting stability and development. And these countries have the right to ask today: Where did this money go? And are we funding peace initiatives or funding a war that exposes us to danger? More dangerous than that, your decision does not threaten only the peoples of the region, but also reaches the American people whom you promised peace and prosperity. And here they are today, finding themselves in a war funded from their money and taxes, with costs ranging, according to the Institute for Policy Studies (IPS), between 40-65 billion dollars for direct military operations, and could reach 210 billion dollars including economic impacts and indirect losses if it lasts four to five weeks, not to mention the sacrifice of Americans themselves in a war in which they have neither camel nor she-camel. You have even broken your promises not to get involved in wars and to focus only on America and put it at the top of your priorities, as you ordered foreign military interventions during your second term that included seven countries: Somalia, Iraq, Yemen, Nigeria, Syria, Iran, and Venezuela, in addition to naval operations in the Caribbean and the eastern Pacific Ocean. You directed more than 658 foreign airstrikes in your first year in office, which equals the total strikes in Biden's entire term, for which you directed your arrows of criticism for involving the United States in foreign wars. Your Excellency the President, these numbers have severely reflected on your approval ratings among Americans, which have declined since your inauguration for the second term, by about 9% in just 400 days. These numbers say something clear: Even within #TheUnitedStates, there is growing concern about being dragged into a new war, and about exposing the lives of Americans, their economy, and their future to unnecessary risks. True leadership is not measured by war decisions, but by wisdom, respect for others, and pushing toward achieving peace. And if these initiatives were launched in the name of peace, then we have the right today to demand full transparency and clear accountability.

@realDonaldTrump

@POTUS

Day, 7, Conflicting objectives, ticking clocks.

 ECONOMIC DAMAGE MAY BE DEFINING RESULT OF WAR

WHO WILL CONTROL THE CLOCK?

After one week, the war with Iran continues, but no clear articulated objective has been given, we can expect there are conflicting objectives. The U.S. seems to wants a change of leadership that can be controlled and allow Iran's oil to be accessible. Trump says he want to pick the next leader. It does not want a chaotic and uncontrollable situation or civil war, the sooner the better. In fact Trump put out hopes of further negotiations within days, soundly rejected by Iran. Trump's days as a serious negotiator are most likely over, not only with Iran, but with Russia and China. He has proved to be untrustworthy and indicates that he has decided to negotiate with military power only. 

Israel wants a similar situation as in Libya and Syria were the country is devastated and Israel has unlimited ability to bomb and keep the country in a state of chaos. 

The Gulf countries want this to end as quickly as possible, their economies depend on the free flow of oil and gas. This war is costing them billions every day. Their status as a safe haven for international business is on the verge of becoming irreparable. While some would like that haven to move to he U.S. or Europe it is most likely to move to Asia.

South Korea has publicly indicated that they have 9 days of Gas reserves. That situation may be similar in Japan and in other countries east of the war of zone. Qatar has shut down its LNG production, due to no where to go with it and it will require 2 weeks to restart.

The EU may be in dire straits within only several weeks. 

It is reported that fuel oil in Pa. is near $4.50 a gallon right now.

Iran is controlling traffic through the strait of Hormuz, only allowing those that they approve.  This can be viewed in real time on Maritime traffic.com. 

Other Gulf producers are still loading empty tankers in the Persian Gulf, but when they are all full, they will have to shut down production. It is not clear how long that will take, or how long to restart.

The U.S. military assets in the gulf states are essentially no longer usable. Either evacuated of personnel or most radar and other uses destroyed. Iran may slow attacks on these bases as they run out of military targets. They have focused on military targets and it seems they have hit the headquarters of Trump and Kushner. They may have also hit hotels housing U.S. personnel.

Iran' s objective is the allow the clock to tick until the world economic situation becomes critical. In contrast to the June war, they have been hitting Israel in small numbers, but all day and night, which increases the instability to Israel's economy. While they may be short on ability, they may also be saving resources until everyone's air defenses are used up.

The Houthis have not yet engaged in the war, one must wonder what they are waiting for?

Israel is now involved in a intense  ground operation in Lebanon with significant casualties on both sides. It is reported that Israel called up another 100,000 reservists with about a 60 % compliance.

Hegseth claims that the U.S. now completely controls the airspace over Iran and that the U.S. will reign "death and destruction" day and night. He also claims this war will change the middle east for the next 1000 years. I cringe when leaders of any country start talking about the next 1000 years. The U.S. has  lost 5 F15's , 3 due to friendly fire from a Kuwaiti F-18 and 2 over Iran. All pilots have escaped unhurt.

The U.S, says it will now intensify the bombing over Iran and that will likely be true, we may see hundreds of thousand of dead Iranians, but it is not clear it will bring a quick end to this war. The clocks are ticking on many situations.