Is Bibi coming to sell his latest war plan?

 NETANYAHU MAKES 7TH TRIP TO WASHINGTON

IRAN HOLDING FIRM ON DEMANDS 

 

It is being reported that Israel's Netanyahu will be meeting with Trump today at 11 am.  The precedent seems to be that some sort of war usually follows. It is not clear who has called for this meeting, but we can assume it has to do with the Iran conflict. 

 

The United States has now had a large number of forces in the region for over 1 year with no end in sight. We hear from those who want escalation and those who want a negotiated settlement.  The dilemma is that Trump agreed to Iran's framework, but hopes to win a victory at the negotiating table. It seems the agreeing part was just an effort to get the strait open and then negotiate a better deal.  Iran is holding firm, desiring a long term agreement that will avoid renewed war in a few  months. We can assume that Netanyahu is planning war, not any deal. 

 

Trump is in a hard place, Iran has demonstrated that they are willing to resume hostilities if necessary and any escalation on their infrastructure will be followed by damage to Persian  gulf infrastructure that will have dire consequences for the world economy and the U.S. economy. Iran is also demanding Israel withdraw from Lebanon, we can expect that will be on the agenda today.

 

Iran is making it clear that they plan on continuing some sort of control on the transit through the strait. it no longer is a toll, but an environmental fee that will include insurance to cover any damages from spills and other related damage to the waterway. It seems Oman is quietly willing to take part in this joint venture.

 

I suspect most shippers find such a fee a small part of their business, and any guarantee of safe passage will be acceptable.  Of course, we can assume Trump still wants to control the Iranian oil and even the other Persian gulf oil resources. There is little room for compromise by either side and everyday the risk and costs are rising.

 

I doubt that Bibi is bringing any positive solutions with him today. 

 

 

 

 

Two wars in Ukraine?

 INTENSITY INCREASES ON LAND AND IN THE AIR

IT WILL LIKELY INCREASE 

 

While most of the focus has been on the conflict in the Persian gulf, the war in Ukraine has increased in intensity and violence.  For several months Russia has increased the air assaults on Ukraine and Ukraine has responded by hitting Russian oil infrastructure. The Ukrainians have been able to disrupt supplies in Crimea and in the eastern portions of Ukraine as well as hit targets far into Russia. Much has been made of these attacks and some even suggest Ukraine is winning this conflict. 

 

While it has been effective against Russia, the other war, the war on the ground has not changed direction. Russia has been advancing even though Ukraine makes attempts to counter attack and sometimes moves forward the fighting has been intense, but Russia is still moving and taking village after village and has in effect cut off Karkiv from its supply routes, it has steadily moved south in the Sumy region and has advanced all along the battle line.

 

While air attacks on Russia have been damaging, Ukraine cannot follow up with any ground operations. The attacks only hope to weaken Russian morale and keep NATO nations support from diminishing. Ukraine's manpower shortage worsens by the day and as Russia opens new fronts, their ability to fill the holes is becoming unsustainable. Ukraine continues to offer formidable resistance, but their is not really any change in their favor for the long term.

 

 

 

 

 

Iran unwilling to cede control of Strait.

 NUCLEAR ENRICHMENT NO LONGER AN ISSUE

FAST MOVING NEGOTIATIONS EXCEPT FOR STRAIT 

 

It seems there is now a ceasefire within the ceasefire as negotiations resume. The future of the strait of Hormuz seems to now be the major controversy. The 14 point agreement stated that the strait would be open by both parties for the next 60 days, then an arrangement would be made between Oman and Iran whose territorial waters overlap in the strait of Hormuz.  At the same time, messaging coming out of Washington is that the strait will be either opened or controlled by the U.S.  

 

There is also some controversy  about the returned Iranian assets, it seems the U.S. wants to put controls on the money that it could only be spent in the U.S., terms that are unacceptable to Iran. 

 

It seems the nuclear issue is to revert back to the same as it was before the war. Iran would limit its enrichment to what is needed for commercial uses and dilute or cede the enriched fuel. all this was agreed to before the war,  inspections would verify compliance.

 

The reality is that Iran, by controlling the strait, and they just made that clear last week, can disrupt oil flow instantly, giving them enormous leverage.  It is also clear that taking control away from them is difficult, costly or possibly impossible and the longer it is not clearly open the clock on global economic damage is ticking. 

 

It is in the best interest of Iran that the strait is safe and open as it will prosper by its own flow of oil and possibly by some sort of regulation maintained by them and Oman.  Many claim that the strait is regulated by international law, but there is some controversy as the territorial waters of Oman and Iran actually cover the entire width of the strait. The U.S. has also made it clear that they will not be handicapped by international  law, so I guess possession is a powerful position.

 

Many advocate a resumption of the war, but it still is not an easy choice, as Iran has the ability to destroy gulf oil infrastructure and keep the strait closed, both a strong incentive to avoid more all out war.  

 

 

 

 

 

Israel believes war will restart after midterms.

 TRUMP NARRATIVE DOES NOT MATCH ACTIONS

HARD TO PREDICT WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN 5 MONTHS 

 

Watching news and other media out of Israel it seems Israel is not ready for anything short of the destruction of Iran. It also seems they are convinced Trump will restart the war after the midterms. While Trump could be signaling that intention and also often threatening that action it may be unlikely that will happen. We can assume Trump will not restart a war with Iran unless there is plan to actually accomplish some real goals. It is unlikely he will do a redo on Netanyahu and Mossad's assumptions.

 

That and who knows what will be the outcome of those elections and who knows what other crisis is on the horizon, there are many possibilities. There are multiple crisis brewing, and even with keeping the control of congress, another war will become hard to sell.  I am beginning to believe that this was the only attempt on Iran we will see in Trump's presidency. The supporters of war with Iran may have to groom the president for war with Iran.

The increasing quest for recurring income.

 THE EFFORT TO BLEED CONSUMERS REGULARLY

MOVING AWAY FROM OWNING ANYTHING 

 

If you are paying attention, it is becoming clear that the new trend is to have consumers no longer buy anything that does not have a lifetime of continued payments attached. In effect, big business is on a road of demanding continued payments for the use of software, or subscriptions attached to new cars or other major appliances. This is often labeled as computer upgrades etc. Many people who do not keep track of their finances fail to realize they are often paying monthly fees for many things they either no longer own or services they no longer use. 

 

In the pharmaceutical business the focus has been on maintenance drugs, drugs that they expect the patient will use regulatory for the rest of their live. This often results in actual cures or 1 time prevention drugs put aside in favor of recurring revenue. 

 

Farmers  lobby congress to intervene in the production of farm equipment that is increasingly computerized, require monthly subscription fees for upgrades and often requiring propitiatory software to diagnose the problems causing long delays and often costing them time in harvesting of crops.  The revenue of John Deere has fallen near 50 % as farmers have rebelled and moved to manufacturers who are still making more maintainable equipment. 

 

Microsoft, the premier software company that has historically had a near monopoly on operating systems installed on most computers is now also feeling push back. Lenovo the largest by volume producer of computers has now made Linux the default operating system., Microsoft is now a option with added fee. Hewlett Packard the second largest producer is now not including Operating systems in their computers they are now an option. Much has to do with Windows 11  which requires new hardware making many good computers instantly obsolete and it seems Microsoft is planning on requiring monthly subscriptions with fees for cloud storage and software rental. 

 

The auto manufacturers are attempting in going down the same road with monthly subscriptions, proprietary software to cut out small repair shops and an endless costs of up grades and factory or dealer maintenance. 

 

This trend is leaving a door open for new  producers to offer simpler, less complicated equipment that the customer can own outright and have more control of their equipment and their lives.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Will Ukraine soon overshadow Iran?

 NEGOTIATIONS MOVING FORWARD WITH IRAN

AS EUROPE PREPARES FOR WAR RUSSIA CONTEMPLATES RESPONSE

 

Contrary to the bluster out of Washington, the talks in Switzerland seem to moving forward steadily. We can assume that half of the frozen assets of Iran have been returned. It is reported that the IAEA  representatives are joining the discussions which indicates that the framework for nuclear inspections is now being negotiated, this was considered to not happen until much further along.  Sanctions on Iranian oil sales have been lifted. All this indicates that these negotiations are moving forward and may be concluded well before 60 days. Of course, one can never predict exactly what will happen tomorrow.

 

The Ukraine conflict is now in the process of hot escalation, while Russia continues to incrementally advance on the battlefield, Ukraine, with use of drones, has been increasing attacks on Russian infrastructure. It is having an effect that Russia can no longer ignore. The supply of western supplied drones has increased dramatically in numbers and quality. It seems they have been supplied by the UK, Germany and the U.S. The sentiment in Russia is growing for some sort of attacks on NATO manufacturing to send a message that Russia understands this is a NATO/Russian conflict. It could be a conventional attack which many suspect will require a conventional response in retaliation, this will then set the stage for nuclear retaliation. 

 

One has to wonder if the expedited deal with Iran is influenced by the expected critical escalation in Ukraine. While the Iran conflict created a major economic crisis, the conflict in Ukraine could become far more dangerous, very quickly. The major NATO members have been increasingly talking of war with Russia and now they are considering converting  their manufacturing assets to war production. This is also being considered in the U.S. 

 

Whether it is real or an attempt at intimidation, the net result could be the same. Russia will not submit to this intimidation and the outcome could be a quick escalation to all out European war.  This, of course, would soon engulf the entire globe. 

 

It does appear that a pivotal point is approaching in Europe and, so far, little real diplomacy is to be seen. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lying about the Iran situation is having consequences.

 REASONS WHY NEGOTIATION IS THE BEST OPTION

IT WILL BE REVEALED IN TIME

 

Many are shocked that the U.S. would go down the negotiation route especially when the outline of negotiations will allow Iran to survive, sell oil and potentially prosper in the future. It appears they will retain the right to nuclear enrichment for commercial reasons and submit to inspections. The sanctions on them will be lifted for the first time in 47 years. Their frozen assets will be given back. Why is this happening ,when it has been reported that Iran has been decimated, their military no longer exists and they are on the so called ropes. Misinformation about this conflict, in an attempt to call the result a win has now come back to cause wide spread disbelief as to why this is the best option. Here are some of the reasons.

 

1. Both the U.S. and Israel were dangerously short of air defense interceptors. There has been a coordinated effort to minimize the damage caused by Iran's ballistic missiles on U.S. bases and Israel.

 

2. The attacks on Iran were possible using stand off missiles fired from Naval assets and air to ground missiles fired outside Iranian air space. While huge numbers of standard bombs are available they would require aircraft to fly over Iran and contrary to the narrative, Iran never turned on their air defenses ,understanding it would make them vulnerable to stand off weapons. The U.S. was not flying over Iran. If we recall the missing pilot saga, no longer talked about, it seems this was covert action to possibly retrieve the nuclear material, it ended badly, with the loss of 2 fighter jets, 4 helicopters and 2 other aircraft, the retrieved ordinance officer is still not identified, possibly because it was not an American. This did not happen because Iran no longer had air defenses.

 

3. It became clear that defeating Iran would require boots on the ground with the possible massive casualties in both ground troops and air support. It would have propelled the U.S. into to an extended war requiring the call up of troops with no clear assurance of quick victory. The geography, population and years of preparation made Iran a formidable opponent.

 

4. The strait of Hormuz put this whole thing on a clock, the worlds oil reserve were becoming depleted,  The Embargo was weak since Iran has access to the Caspian sea and multiple land routes.

 

5. Russia and China views Iran as a pivotal asset for their future commercial business, strategic location on the east west and north south routes. They would have supplied Iran in any prolonged conflict that could have tied the U.S. down for a very long time and drained its resources.

 

6. Iran still had substantial missile capabilities, it threatened to destroy the desalination and oil resources of the region if its infrastructure was attacked, we can assume that the U.S. intelligence understood this reality.

 

Then there is the reality that Iran has been moving in a more moderate direction, with a view that it wanted to become a player in BRICS and  become a less confrontational actor. It has shown restraint even with the assassination of its leadership, attack on it school girls, it did not become enraged and lash out, without purpose, it mostly engaged in measure retaliation to attacks.  It has been rational in its negotiations and firm in demanding that it desired to become a member of the world community. 

 

Trump did not go down the negotiation path because he did not want to defeat Iran, but because the cost in that endeavor was not predictable, very high, with no assurance of victory. This is the same calculation that 4 other presidents came to, ,after careful analysis from objective U.S. analysts. This war has given Iran the leverage to change the direction of its relationship going forward. It could be the best result for everyone, if successful.