Political trash talkers, global rearmament.

 TALKING TOUGH, GOOD FOR ARMS BUSINESS

MANY SHOULD BE FIRED FOR LOOSE TALK

It is now almost a daily occurrence that some government leader or official makes threats of war. In most case it is trash talk, in an attempt to appear tough or decisive, it usually results in increased war preparation and worse diplomatic relations between all involved. We have many examples, George Bush 2 in his infamous declaration about the "Axis of evil" describing Iran, Iraq, and North Korea. At that time they had little cooperation or any real connection to each other. This statement was directly followed by the invasion of Iraq and the move by Iran and North Korea to obtain a nuclear deterrent. North Korea has since become a nuclear power, but Iran has decided it was not the direction they wanted to go, but the trash talking continues and it is wonder that they have not become a nuclear power. They have since become more cooperative with each other.

Then of course there is the Russia/Ukraine situation, U.S. trash talkers run their mouths off contumely, demonizing Russia, boasting about killing Russians and encouraging Ukraine that they can prevail over Russia.  A disaster for Ukraine and a massive rearmament of Russia and NATO. This week we heard an Italian leader of NATO suggest that NATO should consider a pre-emptive strike on Russia, we can only assume he meant a nuclear strike.  Russia's response was clear and then also caused more trashing talking about Russia's aggression. We could only expect that Russia will push to shorten the time needed to respond to any such provocation. We also had a U.S. general in NATO brag that NATO could take over Kaliningrad, a Russian parcel in the Baltic, in days. He didn't mention what would happen after that. Both these high ranking bull shitters should have been fired immediately.

We can also remember a pacific operations U.S. air force general that predicted we would be at war with China by 2025. Then we complained and were astonished by a huge increase in Chinese military preparations. This guy should have been fired immediately.

Today, it's now South America were military preparedness is being increased by nations in the region often with the purchase of advanced weapons from Russia and China. Much of this trash talk is coming from the administration and the consequences will be an increase, if that is possible, in distrust of all things U.S.

While the long term diplomatic consequences are still unknown we can expect none of this talk produces a positive result. Of course, it will increase the debt of many of these nations and will be good for arms manufacturers, maybe that is what it is all about anyway.

Eu miffed at U.S. Ukraine position.

 TRUMP IS EXITING UKRIANE CONFLICT

NATO NO LONGER HAS A PLAN

It seems clear that the results of the 5 hour meeting in Moscow between Putin and Trump's negotiators has infuriated NATO. We can only assume that NATO now understands that Trump is distancing the U.S. from this conflict. It is understandable that having committed to the U.S. Ukraine project they are now in the position of dealing with the consequences. While many will blame Trump, the reality is that this conflict is now going poorly for all involved. Ukrainians are dying in massive numbers, the economies of western Europe can only decline without access to Russian energy and the U.S. is attempting to deal with a massive debt with its possible severe economic crisis. Russia is of course also suffering, but this is an existential threat to their survival and will not compromise on their objectives.

They have the choice of sucking it up, putting their hubris under a blanket and moving on or go to war with Russia. It is an easy choice, if you face the choices objectively and rationally. There are lots of players who still refuse to move on.

The U.S. is beginning to realize that the era of Pax Americana is coming to a close. We have squandered our sound dollar, our manufacturing base and are now left with a massive debt and deficits as far as the eye can see. Cutting spending like the proposals of Musk and DOGE will result in reduced economic activity, as much of the new economy is dependent on Government spending. Raising taxes while seemingly easy will also result in reduced activity and possibly a flight of capital out of the country. There is no EASY solution and the sooner that the U.S. realizes it cannot get past this with threats, intimidation and war, the sooner the country can adjust to the new reality of a changed world.

The whole focus of the Federal Reserve and the federal government will soon be to figure out how to service the debt and interest payments and avoid some sort of default or massive inflation. 

The U.S. cannot bring manufacturing back quickly, nor remedy decades of irresponsible financial policy.  It is going to be painful and extended and we will need the good will of our allies and competitors, whose best interest is to have the U.S. make a successful transition. We could probably get more cooperation from our adversaries than we will get from domestic political opportunists.

Sovereign debt at root of desire for war.

 IT WILL COLLAPSE WHEN THERE ARE NOT ENOUGH BUYERS FOR THIS DEBT

FINANCIAL COMPETITION WILL LEAVE THE WEST BEHIND

We continually hear of European nations planning for war, from talk of increasing their military numbers and spending more money on weapons. All this talk when their biggest problem is providing the services promised to their citizens, and finding buyers of their debt.  They are now talking of currency controls from outlawing cash transactions and forcing registration of  holders of gold and silver. At the same time metals are fleeing the continent for other places around the world. It is expected that  their plan to go to a Central Bank digital currency will accelerate the flight of assets out of the EU. EU nations are even encouraging the rearmament of Germany, something at one time would have been considered a bad idea.

Japan now admits that it central bank is the majority holder of its debt. Japan's debt is now over 200% of GDP. the highest in the world. At the same time it is being encouraged to rearm in an attempt to insure its position in relation to China.

The United States debt continues to rise at unsustainable rates, but still has the advantage of more financial freedom and while devaluing its dollar in 1933 and 1971 and a continuing devaluation by deficit spending and inflation has never completely ended it currency for something else, any attempt to introduce a CBDC or some other currency will result in a massive reaction. Quantitative easing and other fancy sounding names for Central bank purchasing its own debt is a indication that trouble is brewing.

Some assume that if there was not an alternative, all this spending and debt could go on indefinitely, but empires have historically ended when they could no longer repay their debt. Today there are alternatives rising with countries with little or manageable debt benefiting by the shift of assets into their countries. This includes China, Russia and much of Asian countries with high manufacturing and resource production, which creates wealth. 

While previous wars often put to work idle or underutilized manufacturing by countries expanding their debt, it is no longer the same situation. It may be difficult to expand an already massive debt, so one could expect efforts to raise taxes and expropriate assets from its citizens. It will result in a reaction and one can expect it difficult to rally national sacrifice to enable governments that no longer have the trust of their citizenry. This and the real ability to ramp up military production may make actually prevailing in an extended war very difficult. 

Possibly only a replacement of the current leadership in the EU and a new focus by the U.S., can prevent conflict and a transition to a peaceful co-existence.

It is in Russia's best interest to slow walk end of war.

 EU AND UKRAINE NOT READY FOR LASTING AGREEMENT

RUSSIA OWNS THE CLOCK

While we see Trump and the U.S. hoping to negotiate an imminent end to the Ukraine conflict, others are still not ready for a lasting settlement. We should expect this conflict to continue far into 2026. 

Trump is till battling the naysayers in the U.S. who still can't comprehend that Ukraine has lost and that as time goes by they will have little leverage for negotiation.

We still have those in the EU, with military forces that cannot in reality come to the aid of Ukraine and economies declining by the day. still talking of war, preparation for war and even pre-emptive strikes on Russia.

In Ukraine, Zelensky is becoming a lame duck that may not have the ability to negotiate an end to this conflict, there still ae many who want to fight on. Ukraine should be in the process of preparing for elections, it would give any possible negotiation more credibility. The problem is that most opposition have been exiled, imprisoned or worse and it would take many months to actually have an election.

Russia has been clear as to what is needed for lasting peace and the opposition is still not ready to accept defeat or any compromise. The EU and Ukraine have hopes of winning the peace by preparing for more war in the future. This reality will prevent any end to this conflict in the near future.

I suspect that Trump understands that an end to the Ukraine conflict would open up may possibilities for peace in other areas. It would allow Russia and China to cooperate in exerting strong influence on Iran to begin the process of lasting peace in that area. Again there are forces who do not want peace in that region. 

The reality is the western European countries are moving into a period of volatile economic, and social uncertainty, which will make them less likely to be able to wage war on Russia. Ukraine is physically exhausted and its supporters are near exhaustion, economically and in there ability to supply weaponry, They all have serious domestic political problems at home. Again, Russia owns the clock and the longer it keeps ticking the less likely of war against Russia. While Russia has suffered greatly from this conflict, it is in their best interest for its opponents to to decline until they are ready for a lasting peace agreement.

U.S. can't afford war anywhere.

 WAR WILL BE END OF TRUMP'S HOPES

DOMESTIC ISSUES BIGGEST THREAT

While it seems Trump has put Ukraine off of his priority list and also realizes that war with Iran will most likely cause a severe disruption of oil prices or worse, he is now in a lose, lose situation in Venezuela. Has he finally been trapped by those who desire an end to his presidency? I suspect it is a long list of those who hope that Trump fails, maybe even some in his administration.

The economic realities of deficits, debt and diminished manufacturing capacity are the biggest threats to the United States, that and the desire to keep the corrupt gravy train going as long as possible. The United States and Trump cannot afford war anywhere, it will trigger a far greater economic crisis that is brewing and smoldering, just waiting for such a match to blow it all up.

Now Trump has listened to his foreign policy geniuses who has assured him that threats and intimidation will send Maduro packing and that Venezuela is hoping to embrace him with waiting arms if he just squeezes them a little more. It is a familiar story that we have heard about Iraq, Syria and of course Russia, a repeated story that has cost the U.S. trillions and  involved millions of deaths. 

Now it seems Trump is sort of boxed in, just what his enemies want, attack Venezuela and set off an economic tsunami or back off and look weak and indecisive. It may be too late to expect Venezuela to save the day by some sort of negotiation and a narrative of victory. Time is running out for Trump to either pull the trigger on Venezuela and risk economic ruin or back off and focus on things where he has the power to make some positive gains.

He may be forced to show a little humility, a hard nut for Trump to swallow.

There is no savior of the country on the horizon.

 BETTER TO HOPE FOR THE BEST WITH WHAT YOU HAVE

COUNTRIES PROBLEMS CANNOT BE CURED BY ANY ONE MAN

It is now still 2025 and we see speculation on who is going to save the country in 2028. No man, is going to save this country from itself. There is no magic candidate, no reversal of present policies will save us. Most hope to just continue on the unsustainable path we are on, hoping to keep the things going, at least till they are done breathing.

Before we get to 2028, it will be made clear that the economic policies of many decades have led into a crisis with no magic way out. By 2028 we will see that we can no longer intimidate the rest of the world to submit to our desires or mandates. By 2028 we will find that we can no longer provide the benefits promised by many decades of selling votes for promises. In reality, all that is happening right now, if willing to see the situation, in a clear objective light.

So, forget about 2028, while Trump has been handed a plate with a myriad of insoluble problems, it will only be far worse for anyone who should want the job in 2028. Maybe only the delusional will even want the job in 2028.

I suspect that time is running out and 3 more years without any progress, inflamed by partisan lust for power, will lead to a situation of survival after the collapse caused by decades of failed policies.

A better plan would be to do the best that we can, with what we have, while often not what many would like, it is the only thing we have for the time we have left. Time that is ticking away. I hear lots of criticism, but I hear few solutions, because it is easier to blame others for insoluble problems, than to offer real solutions, especially when there are no painless solutions to be had.

Thanksgiving, truly an American holiday.

 STILL RELEVANT AFTER ALL THESE YEARS

WE ALL HAVE MUCH TO BE THANKFUL FOR

Another thanksgiving, for some the only time that family is all together and no matter the peril being experienced by some, we can all find many reasons to be thankful. It is a time to take a pause and count the blessing we have all experienced.

While the country may have many challenges in the near future, for now, we are all blessed to live in these United States. We can still worship as we are led, we can still pursue our dreams and hopes for the future. We have the ability to speak our mind as no where else on earth. We have all been blessed, probably more than we deserve.

As in the tradition of those who really had the reason to be thankful for their survival, we can in some way be empathic to understand how they understood to  offer up thanks.

For all Americans and also all our brothers and sisters around the world,  give a little prayer of thanksgiving for those blessings you have received, no matter how small.