Day 12, Trump, Mariners have no guts!

 WHY IS EVERYONE STILL JUSTIFYING WAR?

EVERYDAY BOASTS OF MORE DEATH AND DESTRUCTION

In press conferences and even talk radio there is still endless diatribe about justification for this war. Glenn Beck has gone as far as to label this war as a fight against the Anti-Christ, an all out war of good against evil. Hegseth and others justification is a moving target that we have all have heard, from Iran's nuclear weapons, to imminent attack from Iran. The attempt to make this a religious war is by far, the most desperate and dangerous aspect of their justification. Symptoms of Anti-Christ behavior are evident in many places. In fact, in everyone who supports this war. Those who wanted this war, have it, why the continuous demonization in justification? Of course we know why, there is no popular support for this war, and as it goes on it will decline even more.

Yesterday, Trump accused Merchant Mariners of having no guts, for not moving ships through the strait of Hormuz, I did not hear of any U.S. warships moving through the strait, does his accusations apply to them, he can order them to do so. Maybe Trump or Netanyahu should show them how it's done and pilot the first ship through. Merchant Mariners risk their life every voyage in the the dangers of ocean navigation, these seaman are from every country in the world, often from numerous countries on the same ship. This is not their war, and if it continues, many will be looking for ways to get off those ships stranded in the Persian gulf and go home.

While reports out of Israel are nonexistent, it is clear that most all the radar facilities in the gulf region have become non operational, as well as much of the communications in the region. Early warnings of incoming missiles is now just minutes before impact in Israel. It seems radar from NATO bases in Turkey are substituting for the lost radars. 

Daily reports from Hegsteth and Trump threaten that everyday the attacks on Iran will be bigger than the last. One has to wonder how these munitions will be replaced and resupplied. Yesterday was the 37th wave of missiles fired by Iran, they are fewer, but bigger and more accurate.

While the crude oil price has stabilized around $85 a barrel there are actual shortages and rationing in Australia and anticipated similar results in the EU. 

It seems this war is settling into a war of attrition, limited real information being available, other than the threats of escalation and cheering on. I suspect that Israel may be the first to find the war no longer sustainable.

Day 11, Is Trump looking for an offramp?

 IT WILL TAKE 3 TO TANGO

IRAN MAY BE COMMITTED TO LONG TERM RESOLUTION

In last nights press conference, Trump indicted that the war was mostly won. He listed all the destruction in Iran and claimed that they have little ability to continue the war. It sounded like he would be willing to end this, even without surrender from Iran.

It may be no coincidence that it is day 11, a time that will require resupply of Navy ships, possibly in India, since the gulf bases are not functional. a possible looming shortage of interceptors, and the continued disruption of fuel through the strait of Hormuz. The forecast of a long drawn out affair could be lethal to this President's domestic agenda. A victory for his enemies in the bureaucratic state and his opponents in both parties. 

For one, he cannot quit unless Israel agrees, and they may soon do just that. Then he has the psychopathic bloodthirsty neocons led by Lindsey, "kill them all" Graham, who seems almost orgasmic at the hope of death, blood and destruction. This seems to be the case of Benjamin Netanyahu as well. Then if he convinces these factions, he has to convince Iran that it is their best interest to quit now and fight again in the future, when Israel and the U.S. can rearm, and resupply. 

Trump has proposed several ceasefires and has been rejected, I suspect Iran now believes that if we are to die, it might as well be now. It may be their last chance to at least survive as a country and they will be able to cause lots of suffering for their attackers.

Day 10, Economic consequences begin.

 WILL OIL MARKETS TRIGGER GLOBAL RECESSION?

RESTORING TRAFFIC THROUGH THE STRAIT MAY NOW BE PRIORITY

It is getting increasingly difficult to understand exactly how things are going in the war, as all nations involved have clamped down on videos and reporting. People are actually being arrested for taking videos. It is also reported that phone communication originating in the U.S. to Iran has been cut off, but communication from Iran to the U.S. is still open.

Devastating attacks on Tehran are ongoing and in the latest escalation the U.S. or Israel has attacked Iran's oil infrastructure with oily black clouds now spreading in the region and some say will travel as far as China. If Iran now retaliates against oil infrastructure it could soon be a serious environmental catastrophe.

It seems Iran is still focusing on the U.S. military infrastructure with continued attacks on bases and radar installations. Attacks on Israel continue, but seem to be less in number but more continual to keep everyone hunkered down in shelters. The economy in Israel is most likely near a standstill. Netanyahu has forbidden all attempts of citizens and duel citizens to leave the country.

At this hour Crude oil futures are at $101. per barrel. Fridays close was $92 and it had risen to over $110 for a period over the weekend. The prices in the U.S. for gas and Fuel oil will reset this afternoon and can be expected to rise substantially. Gas rose 30 cents last week and will probably rise more than that this week. While the U.S. produces much crude it depends on foreign refining capacity as there are fewer refiners still running in the U.S.  Prices of refined products have skyrocketed particularly for aviation fuel. Fertilizer prices have already risen by 70 %, complicating farmers plans for the spring planting. We can expect that all prices will start rising significantly in the near future.

We may expect a shifting of priorities from decimating Tehran to efforts to secure passage through the strait of Hormuz. It could be a very costly engagement, while Iran is allowing some ships to pass, an actual military effort to open, could result in being physically blocked for many months. I would expect this has to be opened or a global financial downturn is imminent.

The N word is increasingly being used either from a frustrated U.S. or a panicked Israel. One wonders if there is the stable leadership available in either country to resist that move. The possibility of the expansion of this war to include much of Europe and then Russia and China increases with every escalation. 

Letter to Trump, by influential and well respected Gulf representitive.

 HOW TO GULF LEADERS FEEL ABOUT WAR?

HOW WILL THIS EFFECT FUTURE GLOBAL RELATIONS?

Below is letter  sent to Donald Trump by a well respected and influential member of the Gulf countries. He is from the UAE which is considered an ally of the U.S. and even Israel. I suspect most Americans will rather hear the diatribe from U.S. media of how wonderful this war is and will continue to refuse to listen to what people in other parts of the world might have to say. 

The day is coming when the U.S. may very well need the good will of both our friends and adversaries and we are burning up that good will not only now, but for the last few decades.

Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor

@KhalafAlHabtoor

·

Mar 5

Translated from Arabic

His Excellency President Donald Trump, A direct question: Who gave you the authority to drag our region into a war with #Iran? And on what basis did you make this dangerous decision? Did you calculate the collateral damage before pulling the trigger? And did you consider that the first to suffer from this escalation will be the countries of the region itself! The peoples of this region have the right to ask as well: Was this your decision alone? Or did it come as a result of pressures from #Netanyahu and his government? You have placed the countries of the #GulfCooperationCouncil and the Arab countries at the heart of a danger they did not choose. Thank God, we are strong and capable of defending ourselves, and we have armies and defenses that protect our homelands, but the question remains: Who gave you permission to turn our region into a battlefield? For before the ink has dried on the #BoardOfPeace initiative that you announced in the name of peace and stability, we find ourselves facing a military escalation that endangers the entire region. So where did those initiatives go? And what is the fate of the commitments made in the name of peace? Most of the funding proposed in those initiatives came from the countries of the region themselves, and from Arab Gulf countries that contributed billions of dollars on the basis of supporting stability and development. And these countries have the right to ask today: Where did this money go? And are we funding peace initiatives or funding a war that exposes us to danger? More dangerous than that, your decision does not threaten only the peoples of the region, but also reaches the American people whom you promised peace and prosperity. And here they are today, finding themselves in a war funded from their money and taxes, with costs ranging, according to the Institute for Policy Studies (IPS), between 40-65 billion dollars for direct military operations, and could reach 210 billion dollars including economic impacts and indirect losses if it lasts four to five weeks, not to mention the sacrifice of Americans themselves in a war in which they have neither camel nor she-camel. You have even broken your promises not to get involved in wars and to focus only on America and put it at the top of your priorities, as you ordered foreign military interventions during your second term that included seven countries: Somalia, Iraq, Yemen, Nigeria, Syria, Iran, and Venezuela, in addition to naval operations in the Caribbean and the eastern Pacific Ocean. You directed more than 658 foreign airstrikes in your first year in office, which equals the total strikes in Biden's entire term, for which you directed your arrows of criticism for involving the United States in foreign wars. Your Excellency the President, these numbers have severely reflected on your approval ratings among Americans, which have declined since your inauguration for the second term, by about 9% in just 400 days. These numbers say something clear: Even within #TheUnitedStates, there is growing concern about being dragged into a new war, and about exposing the lives of Americans, their economy, and their future to unnecessary risks. True leadership is not measured by war decisions, but by wisdom, respect for others, and pushing toward achieving peace. And if these initiatives were launched in the name of peace, then we have the right today to demand full transparency and clear accountability.

@realDonaldTrump

@POTUS

Day, 7, Conflicting objectives, ticking clocks.

 ECONOMIC DAMAGE MAY BE DEFINING RESULT OF WAR

WHO WILL CONTROL THE CLOCK?

After one week, the war with Iran continues, but no clear articulated objective has been given, we can expect there are conflicting objectives. The U.S. seems to wants a change of leadership that can be controlled and allow Iran's oil to be accessible. Trump says he want to pick the next leader. It does not want a chaotic and uncontrollable situation or civil war, the sooner the better. In fact Trump put out hopes of further negotiations within days, soundly rejected by Iran. Trump's days as a serious negotiator are most likely over, not only with Iran, but with Russia and China. He has proved to be untrustworthy and indicates that he has decided to negotiate with military power only. 

Israel wants a similar situation as in Libya and Syria were the country is devastated and Israel has unlimited ability to bomb and keep the country in a state of chaos. 

The Gulf countries want this to end as quickly as possible, their economies depend on the free flow of oil and gas. This war is costing them billions every day. Their status as a safe haven for international business is on the verge of becoming irreparable. While some would like that haven to move to he U.S. or Europe it is most likely to move to Asia.

South Korea has publicly indicated that they have 9 days of Gas reserves. That situation may be similar in Japan and in other countries east of the war of zone. Qatar has shut down its LNG production, due to no where to go with it and it will require 2 weeks to restart.

The EU may be in dire straits within only several weeks. 

It is reported that fuel oil in Pa. is near $4.50 a gallon right now.

Iran is controlling traffic through the strait of Hormuz, only allowing those that they approve.  This can be viewed in real time on Maritime traffic.com. 

Other Gulf producers are still loading empty tankers in the Persian Gulf, but when they are all full, they will have to shut down production. It is not clear how long that will take, or how long to restart.

The U.S. military assets in the gulf states are essentially no longer usable. Either evacuated of personnel or most radar and other uses destroyed. Iran may slow attacks on these bases as they run out of military targets. They have focused on military targets and it seems they have hit the headquarters of Trump and Kushner. They may have also hit hotels housing U.S. personnel.

Iran' s objective is the allow the clock to tick until the world economic situation becomes critical. In contrast to the June war, they have been hitting Israel in small numbers, but all day and night, which increases the instability to Israel's economy. While they may be short on ability, they may also be saving resources until everyone's air defenses are used up.

The Houthis have not yet engaged in the war, one must wonder what they are waiting for?

Israel is now involved in a intense  ground operation in Lebanon with significant casualties on both sides. It is reported that Israel called up another 100,000 reservists with about a 60 % compliance.

Hegseth claims that the U.S. now completely controls the airspace over Iran and that the U.S. will reign "death and destruction" day and night. He also claims this war will change the middle east for the next 1000 years. I cringe when leaders of any country start talking about the next 1000 years. The U.S. has  lost 5 F15's , 3 due to friendly fire from a Kuwaiti F-18 and 2 over Iran. All pilots have escaped unhurt.

The U.S, says it will now intensify the bombing over Iran and that will likely be true, we may see hundreds of thousand of dead Iranians, but it is not clear it will bring a quick end to this war. The clocks are ticking on many situations.

Day 6, Keeping the lies coordinated, not easy.

 WHEN PRECISON WEAPONS BECOME SCARCE, RESORT TO CARPET BOMBING

THE STRAIT IS CONTROLLED BY IRAN

When Trump admitted that precision weapons are in short supply, he countered that the U.S. had unlimited old fashioned bombs. That was an indication of why the rift with Spain is the current subject, Trump threatened to take over the Spanish base and use it stating "What are they going to do about it" , NATO is indeed on its last legs. The reason Spain does not want it's bases used is that the U.S. is moving B-52's to be region to begin carpet bombing conventional bombs on Iran.

It is evident that precision tomahawk missiles, estimated at 400 used so far, and even precision air to ground missiles may now be reserved for emergency use.

More and more evidence is coming out that the negotiations is Geneva,  which were described by the Iranians as very good and included Iranian agreement on nuclear enrichment to only 1.5 % and allowing inspections by IEAC and even the U.S. They also agreed to more talks on other items. Some now believe that Trump never got the message, but Bibi did, and then prepared to strike and the rest is history.

Rubio of course admitted that Israel was going to strike, so the U.S. had to do the same to protect their forces. Others said it was because they would have had a nuclear weapon in a week and had to act fast. There are varying versions of these stories, so it is clear, they are lying. It is also clear they were not fully prepared for this war, the usual U.S. navy transports with marines that are present in every conflict, to evacuate U.S. embassy and other personnel, were never moved to the region. 

More evidence is coming out that Trump was assured that when Khomeini and the leadership were assassinated, the country would fall into chaos and be easy pickings.  Also the the strait of Hormuz was manageable and they would not dare attack facilities in the Gulf, all those things were made clear by Iran, but discounted as meaningless threats.

Conflicting accounts of Kurdish mercenaries invading Iran, the U.S. says yes, the Kurd's say no, are they negotiating for more money? What if they get a better offer from someone else?

It is now near impossible to get information from the region as there is a total blackout in Israel concerning pictures and videos. I saw one video of several blocks in Tele Viv that looked much like GAZA. This may be just one area, but it seems no live or current videos are coming out from Israel or the gulf.

It is also clear that the supply of interceptors is limited, they are attempting to shift them from other places around the world. Two of the extremely expensive Thadd systems have been destroyed by Iran.

It can be expected that tens of thousands Iranians will die in the coming days.

Oil and Gas prices in Europe have risen dramatically and statements out of Russia signal that, due to the planned sanctions on Russian oil and gas due to come into effect on April,1, they are considering shifting their supplies to more friendly buyers who are asking to become customers at higher prices. Putin states that it is strictly a business decision, in the best interest of Russia.

There are indications that Trump's much anticipated trip to China on April 1, may now be in jeopardy.

Iran has stated that ships of Russia and China have free access through the straits of Hormuz, but all others will be refused transit. So far, there has not been any attempt for the U.S. Navy to escort ships.

The flow of verifiable information seems to be diminishing, While the reality can be tightly controlled for a time, inevitably it will all be made clear.

Day 5, the smell of panic is in the air.

 ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OVERSHADOW MILITARY RISKS

RUSSIA MAY BE THE BIG WINNER

While we see lots of boasting and new threats against Iran, the reality of this war is just starting to be established. 

While it is reported that the biggest refinery in the world in Saudi Arabia is shut down, possibly due to Mossad false flag operations and the biggest LNG refinery in Qatar is also shut down, the real global economic problem is, as predicted, the Strait of Hormuz. While Trump is offering that the U.S. will insure tankers traveling the strait, I suspect that is an impossibility, due to many factors, too numerous to list. Insurance will will not encourage captains and crews to put to their lives on the line.

Then there is the proposal to have U.S. Navy  escort ships, the dream of the Iranian military. At present U.S. ships are as much as 600  miles from the coast of Iran, due to the danger of missile attacks, to navigate the strait they would be 15 miles or less from the coast of Iran, within range of missiles and even artillery. These ships would need close air support, at present planes are not flying over Iran. Iran is being attached with ship based cruise missiles and air to ground missiles fired outside of Iranian air space. Low altitude air support would make them vulnerable to even shoulder fired weapons. An example is Ukraine, while Russia bombards Ukraine every day and night after 4 years they still do not do flyovers. If  Iran cannot close the strait with military power, they will just sink several tankers and make it impassable for many months.

The administration is claiming that they have almost eliminated Iranian missile launchers, the reality is that Iran has been preparing for this day since 2003 when Bush 2 listed them as part of the Axis of Evil and then attacked Iraq. Much of their facilities are underground, mobile and concealed until they are needed. 

Panic is displayed when Trump threatens a total embargo of Spain and the military taking of NATO bases, due to Spain's refusal to cooperate with this war. This may be due to the fact that U.S. bases in the gulf are no longer usable.

The shortage of air defense missiles is real and it is proposed to strip them from facilities in South Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

Israel's killing of Khamenei and the 165 elementary school girls is likely intentional to make sure Iran is willing to fight to the end with the US. It is also being reported that they are hitting hospitals, police stations and civilian infrastructure. They have united the nation very successfully.

Trump has made 3 overtures at a ceasefire, Iran attempted to negotiate and every time they were attacked during negotiations. There will not be any negotiations, it will be a fight to the death. Iran understands that this war is an existential fight for their nation. 

It can be expected that this will be the U.S. priority for possibly months,  the rest of the Trump term will be defined by this war. Ukraine will be put on the back burner and the credibility of any negotiations with the U.S. are likely dead everywhere.

Russian oil is suddenly looking as the go to source of oil for China, India, Japan, South Korea and the whole far east. Europe will be in dire straits very quickly, I suspect that if they want oil from Russia they will need to repair the pipeline at their expense and a demand for the lifting of sanctions. Sanctions will soon be dead and the price will be market price.

The talk of ground forces is already being proposed, The loyal Kurds, who the U.S. has screwed repeatedly, are the first choice, the trucks are possibly already backed up to treasury to load pallets of unappropriated dollars. There is also groups in the north, more pallets of dollars. These groups will be led by U.S advisers and U.S. air power will be needed for close air support, a very dangerous job. 

How about a couple hundred thousand Israeli troops, after all, this is their baby, time to do the parenting. 

I usually refrain from blaming Israel for much of this, I still will not, but the rest of the world is now aware as to how this situation has came about. Can Israel's public opinion in the world go any lower?