Escalation frustration, Casino mentality.

 WILL DOUBLING THE BOMBS MAKE A DIFFERENCE?

ANOTHER ROLL OF THE DICE?

 

As we watch the modern day Shakespearean tragedy of the Trump presidency one has to wonder how far this will go before someone decides this is a losing battle and a new approach is necessary. A bigger hammer is not always a better idea, but it is often how much more damage is done until a real solution is found. We can only watch in awe as Trump is consumed by his own hubris and fear of admitting defeat. If it was only Trumps ego at stake it could be almost humorous, but the reality is the whole country and even the global economy is at risk. It seems this whole play has to come to a final conclusion, no matter how damaging.

 

I expected a conclusion of the Ukraine war in 2025, now half way through 2026 it is still escalating, will this be the same situation In Iran, will we still be watching this fiasco in 2027 ?  

 

If I was a betting man I would no longer bet on any date, but I would be willing to bet on who will be still standing when all this is over. The worst thing for the world would be an imminent Russian defeat, as that would not bring about a collapse of its government but an end to civilization in Europe. The Iran war is a similar situation in that Iran needs to retain control of the strait of Hormuz, no matter the cost, as losing that control would be its demise. Hoping that the population will soon overthrow their government and lead to a government that now loves the U.S. and Israel is a very dangerous delusion. They like the Russians understand that their country and their future is at stake.  

 

No matter how hard the powers at be try to convince the west that their future is at risk by Russia's and Iran's existence, it is a weak argument, that is becoming a hard sell. It will be an exercise in Human gullibility to see how long a self induced economic downturn and the massive shortages of food and energy can be blamed on the Iranians and the Russians.

 

While not a rational response, history has proved that whole populations do fall for this type of bullshit repeatedly through human history, with the accompanying devastating results. 

 

 

 

Day 145, More money for perpetual war.

 COSTS AND CASUALTIES LIKELY UNDERESTIMATED

U.S. CREDIBILITY NO LONGER EXISTS

 

Senate hearings have revealed that this administration has no credibility concerning  their assessment of the Iran war. Their statements about every aspect have exaggerated or suppressed the truth from the very beginning.   It all began with the reasons for this war, it is clear it was orchestrated by Israel and we went along. Of course, it was all about weapons of mass destruction,  the usual fall back when you want to go to war. Then the assurances of a weeks long conflict, that is now approaching 6 months. Now we hear a cost of  $37 billion, with a massing of troops and equipment for over 1 year and the destruction of decades of buildings and assets destroyed, another gross underestimate.

 

Now the plea is for another $87 billion, judging from the estimate to date, that should last another 2 years. Then there is need for another $500 billion added to the $1 Trillion defense budget, they must be planning for a lot of war in the future.

 

There is no clear objective, no transparent plan, it is now obvious the plan is the Netanyahu plan for the total destruction of Iran. That will be followed with the plan for destruction of  Turkey, then Egypt, maybe it they will need another $500 billion. The Senate should stop talking to the middlemen and bring in Netanyahu and ask the questions directly. 

 

If this war keeps going it is likely to lead to  an all out regional war that will destroy the global economy, the U.S. economy and finally end the status of the United States as a world power. Ironic, that attempting to sustain world power at all costs will lead to its inevitable end.

 

While the Senators all made interesting points and video clips, they will give them the added money, they will incorporate Israels military into the U.S. military budget. Don't expect anything to change, we are on a road to destruction with no exit. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Beginning of great battle underway in Ukraine.

 PIVOTAL BATTLE FOR UKRAINE'S DEFENSE BELT

LAST FORTIFIED AREA OF THE DONETSK

 

While most of the world is focused on the Iran conflict, a pivotal battle is shaping up for  control of the Donetsk  region in Ukraine.  This area labeled "the defense belt "is comprised of 3 cities, Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Kostianlynivka, west of this 50 km belt is little resistance or postulation to slow the Russian advance.

 

It is expected that this battle, already underway in the approaches, will last for months and may result in over 100,000 casualties.  It is the last major defensive position for the Ukrainians in this region, it has been fortified for now 11 years. 

 

This battle is reminiscent of other such battles since 2022, Mariupol,  Bakhmut,  Avdiivka, and Pokrovsk,  all claiming tens o thousands of causalities. It would likely end the battle for the Donetsk oblast. One of the four incorporated by Russia.  

 

This would then leave the Zaporizhahia, and Kherson area to the south, both already under heavy assault.  

 

Ukraine's policy has usually been to not retreat and fight until most are either killed or surrender, we can expect this will be a more intense situation as it will be a huge loss in military men, equipment and morale. 

 

There seems to be some conflict in Ukraine about how to deal with this situation and may have led to the ouster of their military commander. 

 

While Ukraine has inflicted serious damage on Russian infrastructure with long range drones ,the ground war has been a slow and steady move to the west. Many believe the drone war was a last ditch attempt to have some sort of negotiation, but negotiation seems to no longer be a viable alternative. The next possible attempt at negotiation may be after Russia has solidified its hold on the four oblasts incorporated into Russia. 

 

This war can be expected to last into 2027 and result in many more thousands of deaths.  

 

 

 

So far, the U.S. has enjoyed escalation dominance.

 WILL IRAN ATTEMPT TO END THAT DOMINANCE?

CAN THE U.S. CONTROL THIS CONFLICT? 

 

In reality, this Iran conflict has now been going on for over 1 year, while it has had pauses,  Israel and the U.S. has had the ability to start and pause this conflict at will. First the June 2025 attack by Israel that decimated Iran's scientists and leadership, then Trumps attack on their nuclear sites, followed by a declared victory and end, mostly because Israel was being badly damaged by Iran's missile attacks. Many believed that was not the end of it, and they were right,  the war was resumed in February 2026 and only when the threat of an oil crisis and a waning ability to keep up, was a ceasefire called for by Trump.  Then the MOU, which many never believed the U.S. would ever agree to, and now we are back to war.  The U.S. and Israel has enjoyed what is called "Escalation Dominance" in that they have been able to escalate, then pause whenever they chose. Iran has been accommodating every time, agreeing to pause whenever necessary.

 

We continue to hear threats of escalation from Trump and Iran has continued to retaliate only to those escalations. It has been very predictable., at least until now. While we hear threats of a ground invasion by Trump, no one has considered a ground invasion of Kuwait and Bahrain by Iran. Both countries, with large Shia populations would not be able to defend against such an invasion and even the UAE, country of elites with foreign workers could only survive with the aid of the U.S. A ground war that would now be mandated, not a war of the choice.

 

While Iran would also suffer greatly, it would be the end of the oil diplomacy and the end of escalation dominance it would now be a war requiring real casualties and real losses, on both sides. It would immediately set off a global energy crisis and a global economic crisis, plus political damage in much of the world.

 

We can only hope that does not happen, that some wisdom will prevail and this game playing with the world security will be ended and ended soon.

 

 

  

War escalates, Will Navy be next target?

 WILL TRUMP SOON DECLARE VICTORY?

RUMORS ARE THAT IT IS TIME TO COME HOME

 

While the war with Iran seems to be intensifying and somehow Israel, who wanted this war for decades is missing in action, speculation is that Trump will soon declare victory and claim all objectives have been achieved and now it it up to the gulf nations and those who need oil from the gulf to maintain that victory. 

 

Trump can claim that their nuclear program is destroyed, its Navy and air force obliterated and that Iran will need decades to recover from this war. It is now only six weeks to the start of intense domestic political campaigns and only weeks left before oil becomes a crisis. It is the most logical avenue for Trump to detach from this war, without taking major losses both militarily and politically.

 

Iran's missile capability is proving to be very accurate and sustainable, while Iran is taking punishment, any hope of surrender is unlikely. Many are now speculating that Trump will end this in as little as 2 more weeks. 

 

While it will be a victory for Iran in that it has survived, it will not be a victory documented with a deal that is an obvious defeat for the U.S. It can then be claimed by weeks of media narrative that Trump has won and that Iran is no longer a threat to world peace. It may the best result that is obtainable.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Negotiations dead everywhere.

 WARS INTENSIFY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE

NEGOTIATIONS JUST PLOY TO GAIN ADVANTAGE 

 

It is doubtful that Iran will reenter any negotiations with the U.S., it is all now attacks by the U.S. and retaliation by Iran.  There has been much discussion abut Kushner and Witkoff, not ever seriously engaging in negotiations,  Iran claims it has documented proof that both were more interested in using negotiations and revelations about the negotiations to profit in market trading. No one doubts that Trump's messaging has allowed many to make enormous profits by the markets reactions to his messaging.

 

Same can apply to the Russia Ukraine war, most attempts at negotiations were a ploy to get a ceasefire to allow Ukraine to rearm and reposition.  There is now no indication that Russia will resume any quest for a negotiated settlement. While the U.S. narrative is that Ukraine is making strides, it is all just a narrative, while Ukraine has been able to strike Russia's oil business and ships in the Azov, on the ground, were wars are won or lost,  Russia is now focusing on the last remaining fortified strongholds in Ukraine. They upped their intensity and are increasing their moves to the west. They have still refrained from destroying Ukraine's bridges over the Dnieper, which would make their logistic support very difficult.  

 

On Iran it seems that everyone wants to deny that Iran has the military capability to  destroy the oil infrastructure of the gulf and to even make most of those countries uninhabitable by destroying their desalination plants. While Iran makes it clear they would rather not do that, it seems everyone in the U.S. establishment wants to see if they will do it, I guess we will soon find out. So far, Iran has had a policy of retaliating against U.S. attacks, rather than go all out in an aggressive offensive policy. If they do, we can then expect a call for a ceasefire and negotiations from the U.S. 

 

It appears that these wars will continue until someone can no longer resist and it's still not clear who that will be.  Neither war is an existential threat to the U.S. but it is such a situation for Iran and Russia, they will not be submitting any time soon. 

 

 

 

 

 

Wanted, Fighters willing to die in Iran.

 TRUMP SAYS OTHERS WILL MAN GROUND WAR

CURRENT BOMBING IS PREP FOR GROUND ACTION 

 

Indications are the U.S. is planning some type of ground action in Iran, probably some  action to take physical control of the strait of Hormuz. While most military analysts claim this is a long shot for success, it may be a desperate hope for a victory. Trump has stated that some other force rather than U.S. forces will do the ground operation. 

 

The Kurd's who were propositioned early on, have so far, said no.  Trump also indicated that the Syrian ISIS may take over for Israel in Lebanon, we will have to see if that is going to happen. Are they really that much in love with Israel to die in Lebanon? Will the gulf countries come up with a force to go into Iran, so far the gulf countries have put their hopes on the U.S. not the other way around.

 

Of course, the biggest most modern and well equipped ground army in the region is Turkey. Recently Trump promised then f-35's and maybe other incentives, but it could be difficult for even Erdogan to convince his military to go to war on behalf of the U.S. and Israel,  after all, Turkey needs to be preparing for Israel's proposed war on Turkey.

 

I do not see any European coalition of the willing to take on Iran, while they are still focused on war with Russia. 

 

It is reported that the U.S. has 50,000 troops in the region, a force large enough to enter Iran, but most likely not enough to prevail for any length of time. 

 

Then of course there is Israel, Netanyahu has claimed a ground action is necessary, is Israel ready to send 200 or 300,000 troops across Iraq to enter Iran. We can assume they can and will  since they consider Iran an existential risk for them. 

 

In the 1991 war with Iraq, it took the U.S. 6 months to position 600,000 troops and provisions in Saudi Arabia to invade a flat desert country 1/4 the size of Iran. Any attempt to mass such a force would be under attack on day 1 of even bringing the necessary troops and provisions. We can assume that any attack would need to be amassed in Israel and Jordan and  travel 1000 miles before reaching the border. Longer than traveling across Ukraine to get to Russia. 

 

The analysts are most likely correct a ground war with Iran is a bad idea, It has been a bad idea for 4 decades and it may be even a worse idea today. 

 

We need to hope that Trump is bluffing, for the lives of our soldiers, his best hope is to declare victory and go home.