Day 52, Standoff at the Strait.

 OPEN, BLOCKADE, CLOSED AGAIN

MISSED OPPORTUNITY TO ALLOW CAPTIVES TO FLEE 

This weekend, Iran opened the strait of Hormuz to all traffic in response to the ceasefire in Lebanon. Trump welcomed the opening, but insisted that the U.S. would block all traffic to and from Iran until Iran, in effect, surrenders,  Iran promptly again closed the strait to all traffic. This was a missed opportunity to allow all those stranded ships in the Persian gulf to exit, a humanitarian gesture overridden by Trump's desire to look tough.

So now with 2 more days to the end of the ceasefire the strait is closed and looks like that will be the case for the foreseeable future. While some believe that blockading the strait by the U.S. will cause Iran to capitulate, it is more likely to damage world energy supplies, before it has real effects on Iran's determination. Iran is mostly self sufficient in food and energy and still can import supplies from the Caspian sea and rail to the north. It appears that Trump will indeed, as predicted, be tied up in Iran for much longer than anticipated, if not for the rest of his presidency.

Of course we still hear the threats of military devastation to Iran if they persist, but Iran has also threatens to destroy much of the energy producing facilities and desalination plants in the region, if again attacked. Such a retaliation will then cause a global economic crisis that will no longer be able to be controlled by any narrative.  Attempts to secure the strait by force or take Kharg island will probably end in the same result.

Trump claimed that there were more talks in store, but Iran made it clear that they would no longer participate in mock negotiations that were merely more efforts to force capitulation or influence the energy or stock markets. 

So, it is indeed a classic standoff, a frustration for the greatest power on earth, especially from a country deemed inferior and not worthy of any respect. It is just the kind of situation were reasonable logical thinking can be overcome by rage and emotion, especially when the whole world is watching.

Day 49, U.S. goal is global dominance, ignore the rest.

CONTROL OF IRANIAN OIL ONE STEP 

MAYBE A PAUSE, BUT CONFLICT WILL CONTINUE 

Many find it hard to understand what the goals of the United States are, it is often characterized as no goal, or no plan, or chaos. It is clear there is a goal and it is proceeding. In fact, this goal has been advancing for the last 35 years, if not longer. The goal is retaining the United States dominate position in the world, both politically and economically. The problem is that the United States is losing that position economically with massive debt, corruption and fiscal irresponsibility. The dollar, the cornerstone of the U.S. economic dominance, is a shadow of it former status because of that fiscal irresponsibility.  The U.S. manufacturing base is continuing to decline and be uncompetitive in the global arena, this again is due to over regulation, crony capitalism and corruption. 

Many hoped that the U.S. was about to embark on a policy of reform and renewal through the age old process of good government and fiscal responsibility, weeding out the massive corruption at every level and embracing tried and true business practices. It appears that that has been rejected, Washington now believes that dominance can be retained and even enhanced by military power, coercion, bribery and brute force. It is the age old policy of empire, but an empire that has already lost its manufacturing ability to sustain that brute force and its economic power has been squandered by fiscal irresponsibility and corruption. The brute force policy of the last 35 years has resulted in massive debt, and a flight from the dollar, yet this policy is being doubled down on, hoping the U.S. can still dominate by gaining access to the resource of others.

The present step is gaining control of oil resources of Iran, it is not about any other reason that has been offered to justify this use of force. Control of Iranian oil and then the next step, control of all the Gulf oil, is believed to give the U.S. control of the economies of southeast Asia. Of course, the main target is China, which has been under assault by propaganda as an enemy of the U.S., hoping to unseat the U.S. as the global leader. All that China has done is embrace the good business practices of the an earlier U.S. and has reaped success. 

It is clear, we have demonized Iraq and then taken control its oil, we demonized Venezuela and have taken control its oil, we have demonized Iran in an effort to take control of its oil. We have demonized Russia to hopefully break it up and take control of its resources. If you view U.S. foreign policy in that light it is far easier to understand the plan. Expect to see a reason to go after Nigerian oil in the near future.

At present, the U.S. has lost domestic support for foreign wars, but we see the planned increase in defense or war spending by 50%, we hear calls for shifting production of our remaining manufacturing to war supplies. Then what is needed is massive support at home for more war that is usually accomplished by an assault on the U.S. similar to 911 or Pearl harbor. The intelligence community is now an expert at such projects.

Of course, much of the world now understands what is going on and so far has only reacted, even Iran only reacts to U.S. escalation. One may expect that our adversaries will soon decide that push back is necessary, first by economic means, shedding U.S. debt and embargoes of material to the U.S.. This will set off an escalating action and reaction that if not controlled will lead to global war. The future is not defined.

Many hoped that a new administration in Washington would understand that a new era of mutual prosperity and cooperation is or was possible, but it seems that rather than the hard work of reform and renewal and mutual cooperation it appears easier to continue the corruption and embrace a policy of brute force. A policy that looks unsustainable and will result in a further decline in the prosperity of the country. 

 

Day 48, So far, the blockade that's not.

PEACE DEAL UNLIKELY,  6 DAYS TO END OF CEASEFIRE

NO EASY WAY OUT OF THIS CONFLICT

So far it seems no ships have been stopped by U.S. forces exiting the Hormuz strait, maybe that will change after the ceasefire expires next Wednesday. Iran has already threatened to entice the Houthis to close the Red sea if the blockade really goes into effect. That would result in the combined cutting of 33% of the world's oil supply. Trump has been successful at keeping oil futures prices flat by continually claiming that peace is at hand, not really true.  

Iran claims that their whole negotiating team believes that they were going to be attacked, while in the air returning from Pakistan. It seems there were threats made that if they did not submit to the U.S. terms they would not get home. The whole team disembarked near the border and returned by train and bus. They will not go to Pakistan again, though they were happy with the Pakistan security while in Pakistan.

There is more evidence that the Pilot rescue was the result of a covert mission to grab the nuclear material that went wrong. With the loss of 4 planes and 4 helicopters, can we believe that there were no casualties. Iran has not mentioned the whole affair at all, very interesting.

Next Wednesday will be decision day, to either escalate by attempting to take control of the Hormuz strait or Kharg Island or to move to a temporary period of economic measures to pressure the Iranian economy. The big question is how to back down temporarily without Iran collecting tolls in the strait. 

If the goal is to take control of Iran's oil, this conflict will continue for years if necessary or until the U.S. can no longer maintain the forces and distractions materially and in the global economy. 

Dramatic drop in support for Israel, CNN poll.

 DROP IN EVERY SECTOR OF U.S. POPULATION

ANTI-SEMITISM OR ANTI-ISRAEL POLICY

CNN recently released a series of polls on the U.S. electorate. Polls concerning the support for Israel indicate a historic negative shift from 2022 to 2026.

1. Young Republicans under 50,   2022 +28    2026  -16  = 44% drop

2. Mod. Liberal Republicans                  +26             -  9  =  35% drop

3. Men under 50                                      - 3              - 47  =  50% drop

4. Mod-  Conservative Dems                  +3               -55  =  58% drop

5. All Adults                                            +13             -23  =  36% drop

6.                                   Israel  + 28          Palestinians  +11%

While we may hear that any criticism of Israel's policies are labeled as Anti-Semitism, these polls indicate that support for the state of Israel's policies has experienced a dramatic shift. 

I would expect that after Israel's massacre of over 300 Lebanese civilians in an attempt to coerce the Lebanese government to engage in a civil war with Hezbollah have further damaged their cause.  

The policy of assassinations of the leadership of their opponents even during negotiations, has further damaged Israel's support. While the above polls focus on the U.S. electorate, probably the strongest supporters globally of Israel, what is the support in the rest of the world? 

After the attack on Israel in 2023, they had the sympathy of the world on their side, but due to policies of Netanyahu and his ability to gain support for his policies in Israel and in the U.S. government, Israel has squandered that opportunity for meaningful advancement and created a situation that may be irreparable. This decline in support cannot be improved by narrative and propaganda, but only by real change of direction by Israeli policies. 

Another part of the poll indicted a 363% rise in google searches for Aipac, Israel's lobby. A search of  "Track Aipac" indicates that only single digits of Senators Representatives and Presidential candidates does not take money from this lobby. Many in the many millions of dollars.

Many may dismiss these polls and even the fact that it is published as an attack on Israel or anti-Semitism, that tactic and narrative will no longer fly and only real reform of Israel's policies will improve public support. Israel is the country most dependent on public support in the world, whether it acknowledges or not. 

Day 46, Moving the world away from the U.S.

 COLLATERAL DAMAGE INTENSIFIES

TRANSITION TO ECONOMIC PRESSURES

Yesterday, the new U.S. strategy of blockading oil exports by Iran began. Of course, Iran's position is, if they can't export, neither will anyone in the Gulf. We will see who cries uncle first, but the consequences of this approach are multiplying by the day.

The next shoe to drop may be the closing of the Red Sea, that would then eliminate 32 % of the world's oil with the closing of both choke points.

South Korea is now in a verbal bout with Israel, accusing Israel of war crimes and other illegal and humanitarian crimes. Japan is also not happy with this situation. We can guess the same applies to all of southeast Asia.

It must be made clear the U.S. Navy is not anywhere near the strait of Hormuz, but 600 miles out in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. They plan on stopping all ships exiting the Gulf, will they detain Chinese, Indian, South Korean and Japanese ships? This is in effect an act of war, we will have to wait to see if anyone will put this to the test. 

If this blockade would last long enough, I doubt if it will, to put the Chinese economy in trouble, the risk of war with China will increase dramatically. The U.S. fleet is now 7000 miles from the U.S. and many of its bases are over 1000 miles. Challenging the submarine fleets of China and Russia would inevitably result in serious U.S. losses, losses that could not be easily replaced. 

China and Russia could combine their engineering and construction capacity to accelerate pipelines from Russia to China and India supplying oil to all the U.S. allies, that would quickly become former allies. 

Again, the problem with a solution is Israel wants Iran destroyed, made into a unstable chaotic and desolate nation, like Libya and Syria. It is suspected that Trump has bought into the decades old neocon policy of obtaining control of the world's oil assets as a way of maintaining Dollar reserve status and global political hegemony.  I question if a hollowed out U.S. financialized economy can support that policy, but they may be willing to take down the world economy in a last ditch attempt. That leaves a sustained economic and slow picking away at Iran similar to the 15 years it took to overturn Syria, but they need to speed that process way up.

The narrative of Israel against Turkey is heating up dramatically, they are indeed setting the stage for war with Turkey, something that again would require U.S. assistance. Turkey, a NATO member, has a formidable military and its ground troops could not be matched by Israel.

Looking down from 100,000 feet in an objective way, indicates that Israel is entering a time that its existence is increasingly in doubt. Israel has lost its global support, it is engaging in wars in an unsustainable way.  Netanyahu's trial is again put off for 2 more months, must Israel stay at war to protect Netanyahu? Without a political change of direction, its future looks very dim. 

Day 45, Blockade the strait? More desperation.

 FAKE NEGOTIATIONS END QUICKLY

CAN U.S. AFFORD ESCALATION?

As we enter the 7th week of this Iranian, Israeli and U.S. war, we are now offered another desperate attempt to bring down Iran, a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, something that last week was a priority to open. The latest talks at least neutralized Trump's ultimatums and threats to end the Iranian civilisation, a dramatic dog and pony show that Iran agreed to participate in, fully knowing that it was all about Trump saving face. One can imagine that Iran felt it worth the effort to portray themselves as the responsible actors and the U.S. as floundering around and without any solutions. 

Closing the strait will bring about another outcry from the world's oil importing countries, who probably are willing to pay Iran the fee for an open strait, will they now have to pay the U.S. to end the blockade? We can expect that this latest strategy will end quickly, if it even happens at all.

Russia and China will not easily allow Iran to be overthrown, as its position is essential for their long term economic stability.

The Gulf countries that hitched their wagon to the U.S. and accommodated Israel in an effort to stabilize the region, must now be in a dilemma as to how to preserve their economic future. One must expect that they will soon realize that their oil assets are also going to be a target of their devious partners. Will they soon look to Iran or China as a new partner? Can they find a way for an amicable divorce from their present partners? Do their populations hold the same view as the leadership?

Listening to Netanyahu recently giving a speech to the domestic audience, he portrayed Israel as number 1 in cyber technology, this may be true. He went on to proclaim that Israel was going to be a world power, a delusion at best. Without its partnership with the U.S. it would most likely, not even be a regional power. It has also hitched its wagon to the U.S. and has grown in influence, due to this arrangement, an arrangement that has contributed to the U.S. amassing huge debt and a dropping global public opinion for both.  While Israel has a formidable air force, due to U.S. weapons, and a substantial defense for the same reason, their ground operation has yet to end Hamas and Hezbollah is inflicting serious damage to them in Lebanon. They resort to more genocidal attacks on civilians in their frustration.

The increase in inflammatory rhetoric with Turkey, indicates they are in the process of setting the stage for war with Turkey, a NATO member. They are causing unrest in Cyprus, part of which is under control of Turkey. Some in Israel believe they are as big threat to Israel as Iran.

The Israeli army is stretched to the breaking point and one would expect that, if there would not be a ban on Israli's exiting the country, a new exodus would be underway. I expect the population has decreased in the last 3 years.

No matter how advanced ones technology, a population of 8 million can never be a world power. An expansion of territory into Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Egypt will not cause a mass increase in Jewish immigrants into the nation. 

While the supply of precision guided ordnance and interceptors are a limiting factor in this war, the risk of a economic crisis is rising as oil prices begin a chain reaction of losses, defaults and derivative implosions that may be more effective in limiting the ability for war. Those dependent on others will be the most vulnerable.

Day 42, Ceasefire, Dramatic ploy to escape ultimatums?

 ARE TALKS TODAY JUST SHOWMANSHIP?

U.S. CONTINUES TO LOSE CREDIBILITY

One can not help but speculate that this whole ceasefire and agreeing to negotiate Iran's 10 point plan is nothing more than a dramatic ploy to escape the consequences of Trump's series of ultimatums that Iran essentially ignored. In fact, when Trump issued his most dramatic ultimatum of the "End of Civilization" Iran ended any communications with Pakistan. They just prepared for the worst, which would have escalated into an economic disaster for the world. Then came the last minute acceptance of Iran's proposal, which is now claimed to not be the terms that they agreed to. Today, we can expect that talks will go nowhere and hostilities will resume at any time or when a plan B or C is organized.

Last weekend's dramatic rescue of the missing Colonel now appears to be much more, with all the hardware and other unexplained details many now believe this was an attempt for a covert mission on the nuclear material in Isfahan, that was aborted with the shooting down of the F15. This would explain the frustration coming out of the white house. 

Israel's attacks in Lebanon, which Pakistan and others admit where part of the ceasefire, just enhances the appearance that Israel is not under the control of the U.S. Some believe it is the reverse that the U.S. is under the control of Israel, but this may again just make it possible to blame Israel when things go bad.

While everyone is focused on the hostilities between the U.S., Iran and Israel, it does not address the root of all this continuing violence in the region. Without a resolution of what will become of the residents of Palestine, this conflict will never end. Israel's plan to just either force them out or kill them is not a realistic option. At present, it is not likely that this will end without an intervention by the major powers both regional and global. 

Leaders of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the U.S., Russia and China should gather and negotiate a plan that may need to change borders significantly, compensate any who are displaced on by both sides and possibly build a wall between them. A limit on arms to both sides and intervention by this coalition to enforce peaceful compliance.  The state of Israel was created by international decision, now maybe it is time to fix the problem that they created.