Russia agrees to talks, later, after elections.

 ZELENSKY AGREES TO GIVE UP TERRITORY

BIBI PROMISES MORE WAR WITH IRAN 

 

It seems there will not be any any election season surprises. No peace in Ukraine nor election eve war in Iran. It appears Bibi still wants war with Iran even before the elections to help his election chances, while Trump feels more war will be negative for the Republicans.  Putin, smiling, has pledged to talks with Ukraine. but not until the middle of next month, even with Zelensky admitting he will agree to give up eastern Ukraine. 

 

With less than a week until the Israeli election. Bibi does tapes with him on the phone with Trump promising more war with Iran. It appears more war with Iran is central for Bibi to win the election. Trump on the other hand hopes to continue with the narrative that peace is at hand both in Iran and Ukraine, hoping for a last minute election miracle.  

 

We can only assume that Putin is not willing to count on election season posturing and will wait to see what the narrative is after the elections or the actual policy. 

 

Iran understands that it will be more war, no matter the election results, talks and negotiations are just window dressing for Trump to appear that he really want a peace deal,  when there is no peace deal on the horizon.  

 

With no more elections in the near future, it will be back to war for sure in Iran and maybe even in Ukraine.  

 

 

 

 

Both Russia and Iran understand the plan.

 NO CEASEFIRE AND NO OPEN STRAIT 

ONLY LONG TERM RESOLUTION ACCEPTABLE 

 

It is clear that it is increasingly difficult for the US to be engaged in 2 simultaneous wars. While many would like to see an end to both wars, there are of course those who want to win both wars. We see Trump offering concessions to Russia, much of it in a hope to bring about a ceasefire. Russia also understands that Ukraine is in a very vulnerable position and he also understands by experience that any ceasefire will be used to enhance Ukraine ability to continue. There will continue to be glad handing and offers to help the US domestic situation and Trump hopes to win over Russia and peel away its support for Iran and China. Putin also understands that the war will continue until a comprehensive settlement is reached that will end the war permanently, not just another pause until next round. 

 

Iran is in a similar situation, all the propositions attempt to encourage Iran to open up the strait for talks, but also understands that economic sanctions and a goal for its destruction is still the plan of both Trump and Netanyahu.  Netanyahu wants Iran reduced to a failed state that it can periodically feel free to mow the grass and dominate with military power. Trump hopes to gain control of all the oil in the gulf and use it as leverage to maintain US supremacy.  

 

While these schemes have worked in the past, it has been replayed too often to be effective.  Peace is possible, but only long term comprehensive deals that ensure peace for the long term future. Ukraine, the EU, and many in the US are still not ready to admit that is possible. 

 

As for Iran, they understand that their existence is at stake and they are willing to fight on, if necessary. The consequences will very badly damage all involved and the global economic system.  

 

I suspect the war with Ukraine will continue until Ukraine cannot physically continue. The Iran war will also continue and may very well change the global power structure permanently. 

 

Both could have been avoided, both could have been settled, but it is just another sad example of the lust for power and what belongs to others. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Democrats do not offer credible alternatives.

 POSSIBLE TEMPORARY WINS ARE NOT SUSTAINABLE

CONSERVATIVE TRENDS WILL NOT BE DERAILED

 

The predictions in this election season are that the Democrats will have substantial comeback from their 2024 losses. While it may be true, it will be caused by a lack of enthusiasm and disarray presently on the more conservative side. It will not be from an actual embracing of the democrats agenda. The trends in politics seem to be a two steps forward 1 step backward kind of pattern and this year may be a step backward, but the trend will not be deterred in the long run. 

 

We saw the 1994 massive move to the Republicans followed by moves back until 2010 with the tea party movement. The pressure against a real conservative movement is present in both parties and new movements are quickly misdirected and corrupted by the deep seated powers in the parties. Often the actual movements are reincorporated into the existing power base and real change is slowed, but it has not been destroyed.

 

While Democrats seem to be now in a position for renewal of power, it is not likely to have much sustenance. Social Democracy is dying not only in the US but in western Europe, not because people don't want more benefits, but because the well is dry the debt too big and just as the reality of the Soviet Union, it will become a relic of the past. The transition as to what will replace the present system is not yet clear, but it is not possible to continue on the present path. 

 

The US faces the same kind of dilemma as the Soviet System faced in 1990, it was a decade of disaster followed by a rebuilding, the same may be true for the US. Real communism is dead everywhere except North Korea and Democratic socialism is dying as well. 

 

While it seems that Trump has been reincorporated by the US war machine and the Israel lobby, his former followers will need to chalk it up to political experience and the acknowledgment of the realty of deep seated forces against change.  Just as we have witnessed the end of the massive deep power in the Soviet Union much of it having to do with the death of the original revolutionaries and the slow transitions in China from communism to some sort of hybrid capitalism the same can happen here. 

 

The transitions are safest if they are slow but steady, as we witnessed the nonviolent transition in Russia and even in China, the reality of the unsustainable path of the present situation, will hopefully  change grounded in our sound constitution and renewal of moral foundations.

 

The Social Democratic movement that prevailed in Western Europe and the US has reached its end because it is unsustainable due to debt, demographics and economic reality. An orderly transition is possible if we are willing to acknowledge that a transition is inevitable.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AI and Genetic engineering: Beware of the Brave new world.

NOT YET REALITY, BUT NOT FICTION

ARE WE ABOUT TO NEED TO DEFINE WHAT IS HUMAN?

There is much talk about the possibilities of Artificial Intelligence. The advances have been moving at a lightning pace. We now see robots that are beginning to look and act human. There is talk of them having the ability to LEARN, to express emotions, talk and adapt to new challenges. There is talk of them replacing humans for many menial tasks and maybe eventually not so menial.  It seems there is much interest and financial investment going into this research.  Without a doubt there are plans to substitute humans with these new entities for some occupations and some tasks.

Are we about to begin to debate what is the definition of a human. Is it an entity that is flesh and blood that stands erect, that has all the features of what we recognize today. Or is the definition of human far more complex, the ability to reason, adapt to changes, engage in abstract thought and put those thoughts into material creations. To have emotions, human instinct like survival and fear and hope, maternal instincts, family instincts and such traits are far more complicated .

Now consider, why spend vast sums on artificial intelligence that will need to be built, repaired and maintained. When we are now about to enter an era where it may be possible to engineer a living being or entity that will be self maintaining and reproducible.  Since the breakthrough of CRISPR in genetic engineering or gene editing it is becoming possible to modify embryos with a specific purpose or result in mind. In fact, it is reported that China has already had twin girls born that have been genetically modified. While this example has been condemned by China and others as unethical, if it can be done, it will be done. 

Now this example supposedly had to do with attempting to suppress the ability to contract HIV, but it is going to be possible to do much more. So imagine what can be possible. What if it should be decided that if scientists take unfertilized embryos and alter them that they no longer have the characteristics of humans that would fit into the accepted definition of what is human. Would some society accept that such entities, while they may have the physical appearance of humans, actually are not, but are now a new entity that could possibly even be patented. If all the emotions, instincts and behavioral characteristics of human are stripped out, then science could eventually make many special purpose entities that would easily replace humans to do much of the labor needed to keep society going.

There could be entities for the purpose of combat or police work. Household entities that could maintain all the needed choirs in every home. There could be entities that could act as surrogates if impregnated  in vitro with human fertilized embryos. The possibilities are endless.

These entities would also provide a endless source for organs and fetal tissue now hoped to be able extend life.

The maturing process could be shortened to become useful in a quicker time and they could be fully reproducible, no manufacturing, no maintenance. They could be engineered to have a specific length of useful time to function.

Such advancements would fulfill all the requirements of a sustainable planet. Many are already accepting the idea that the planets population should be downsized by between 1/2 and 1/10 of the current population. These new entities could replace much of the population and would not require or need near the resources that humans now use. The possibilities are soon to be endless.

So, while all this is now not reality, it is not science fiction, because it is going to be possible. This research IS going on now and the interest in downsizing the population is now an open topic of discussion.

We must believe that being as a god is enough enticement for such research to become an obsession for some that will not be controlled.

Originally published 11/15/22

MIT has released an article how they are anticipating the ability to produce humanoid bodies for research and body parts. I expect this is already going on somewhere.

3/31/2025

There are no happy endings in sight.

 THERE MAY NOT EVEN BE ANY WINNERS

ALTERNATIVES ARE BAD OR WORSE 

 

The global political situation is the direst since 1939, we are without a doubt at a pivotal decision time. Within a very short time the future direction will be decided and no matter what that may be, it is possibly without any positive outcomes.

 

The Ukraine Russia conflict drags on, I call it a conflict because it is not all out war. Real all out war will be something that no one can actually comprehend. Inept politicians boast of all out war, which just demonstrates the quality of leadership, particularly in the western world. This conflict may very well move to all out war and once underway possibly impossible to stop. 

 

European leaders still believe they can bring Russia to submit to their demands and  Ukraine hopes to drag in NATO to save their nation. It appears all opportunities for a negotiated settlement have passed and it will be only surrender by Ukraine or a massive European conflagration, most likely not contained within Europe.

 

The same goes for the Iran Israel US war, It has not been all out war. It has been attacks followed by responses and low grade continuing confrontation. It seems to be clear that the next escalation may become all out war. A war that will be fought until there is a decisive winner and a loser, similar to the end of WW2. Such a conclusion, no matter the winner, a capitulation by Iran or a US retreat from the region will have dire consequences for the globe. A Mideast economy decimated for years and a  world economy struggling to find any stability for a long time, plus the risk of expanding across the region and drawing in Russia and China.

 

It is clear that we are in the early stages of global war, much of the dispute is the challenge to existing order dominated by the US since WW2. The challenge to US dollar reserve status and the changing economic and political realities in today's world.

 

The reality is the US has devalued the purchasing ability of the dollar, due to irresponsible fiscal policy and it has allowed its manufacturing base, the source of real wealth creation, political and military power, to decline. It has refused to understand that the foundation of real power is no longer there, hence the threats, sanctions, bluster and now embroiled in 2 major conflicts with no winning way out, without resorting to nuclear conflagration, which will not be a win for anyone.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Asia transformation inevitable

 WEST'S POLICY BIGGEST UNIFYING FORCE

WILL TALK OF HOLY WAR IN US INSURE UNITY

 

Everyday we are witnessing a breakdown of the political situation in West Asia.  It is likely the alignment that began at the end of the 19th century is coming to an end. The Royal Navy began switching from coal to oil as its main fuel for its empire 's navy and the middle east was the most abundant source of that oil. The meddling began to keep the primitive political system in the region under their control and it resulted in the Nations and kingdoms it created by the end of WW2. This project seems to have been inherited by the United States after WW2. 

 

The policy has been to keep these tribes and nation divided and offer their military power as a stabilizing force. Any country that could offer some sort of leadership, Libya, Syria, and Iraq, was destroyed or compromised like Egypt and Turkey.  It is clear that political situation is coming to an end and the US no longer can maintain the promised stability. At present, there is a void of leadership in many of these countries and also a lingering divide of common purpose. That void is not going to remain forever and it will no longer be in the power of western governments to maintain the present system.

 

One option is to offer assistance in an orderly transition that will allow commerce and  interaction in a mutually beneficial way. The oil and other resources was always for sale and can be so in the future, without having ultimate control, this applies to other regions in the world, including Russia and China.

 

At present, that is not the course, today we hear Glenn Beck and other talk radio espousing holy war,  an anticipated war with Islam. We also hear it from the Secretary of WAR and other politicians. The hope of public execution of a Muslim man is just another subtle message to the world. The emphasis of the religion of political candidates is another. 

 

The immigration of large numbers of Muslims into the US and western Europe is a direct result of decades of destroying stable living conditions in the middle east in our quest for control. Many left those regions in a attempt to survive for themselves and their families.  I suspect that many would rather be home if it was safe and prosperous.

 

Islam is the one unifying force in the whole west Asia region, from north Africa to Pakistan and the rhetoric out of the west may very well be the most unifying force in that region in over 100 years. If this happens it will be direct result of the policies underway in the west.

 

Some of this is inspired by operatives of Israel and some of it a natural hostility to people or religions who are different, and of course decades of politically motivated propaganda.  

 

The US can no longer maintain control of the politics of the region and maybe also in other parts of the world, but we could offer the leadership of a new arrangement that has a basis is mutual respect and allowing others their natural right to self determination, something always espoused, but not always adhered to.

 

 

 

 

Saudi/Houthi conflict escalating into all out war.

 SAUDI INFRASTRUCTURE TAKING SERIOUS DAMAGE

RISK OF IMPACTING GLOBAL ECONOMY 

 

The Saudi Houthi conflict is becoming a major disruption in the region. The dispute dates back to 2015 when the Saudi's and coalition forces intervened in the Yemen civil war, they then imposed a blockade on Yemen that has caused humanitarian suffering for the past 11 years. The dispute was on hold until Saudi forces attacked the Yemen airport in an effort to kill some of its leadership. while the attack failed, the Houthi's retaliated and then a series of tit for tat exchanges led to a massive air attack by Saudi Arabia, now the Houthi's have been effective at taking out the infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, shutting  down air travel and damaging oil refineries and other oil facilities. The Houthi's now threaten to continue until Saudi Arabia ends the embargo on Yemen.

 

The ability of Saudi Arabia to produce and refine oil is now under threat and the other fear is that internal opposition may actually seek to overturn the existing regime. While the current leader has made reforms and ended Saudi support of international terrorism he has also made many enemies in the process of consolidating his power.  

 

It was likely not a good time to get involved in another round of fighting with the Houthi's who have actually become a far more sophisticated and organized adversary strengthened and hardened  by 11 years of blockade and fighting. 

 

There are indications that there was pressure by the US to attempt to weaken the Houthi's or to neutralize them before the upcoming offense against Iran. Now this conflict risks causing the depletion of limited munitions and air defense interceptors that will be necessary for the anticipated resumption of war with Iran. So far the Houthi's do not appear weaker and in fact may actually put the stability of Saudi Arabia at risk. 

 

It all adds up to a complication of the oil markets and threatens further instability of the gulf countries, with no end in sight.