Obama and Trump, outsider candidates?

HOW OUTSIDER CANDIDATES SOON CAPITULATED TO THE EPSTEIN CLASS

FREE REIGN DOMESTICALLY, BUT PUPPETS GLOBALLY 

I very clearly recall the phenomenon of the Barak Obama run for president. He was the outsider candidate against Hillary Clinton in the primary. He overwhelmingly won with 64% of the vote. His rise, supported by grass roots volunteers, was the phenomenon of the times. While many suspected he had many Marxist leanings, it indicated the craving of voters for someone not part of the Washington establishment. He overwhelmingly defeated John McCain both in the electoral college and popular vote. 

In his inauguration speech he promised he would open new dialogue with the Muslim world based on mutual interest and mutual respect. He went as far as to go to Egypt in June 2009 and give a speech titled a "New Beginning" that promised a new era of U.S. middle east relations based on mutual respect. He stated that he hoped to usher in a new era in the region.  

In 2009 Obama increased troops in Afghanistan and did so several more times until U.S. troops reached 100,000.

In 2011 he approved the support for rebel troops to overthrow the government of Syria.

In 2011 he openly supported the overthrow of the government of Egypt, with many NGO subversives funded by the U.S., to assist in the revolution.

In 2011 he approved and supported the overthrow of the government in Libya

In 2014 he help fund and assist in the overthrow of the elected government in Ukraine.

He approved of massive numbers of drone assassinations conducted by the CIA all over the region.

I doubt if the administration of John McCain could have been more aggressive.

In domestic policy, which we can assume was his own, he pushed through a health care package by one vote aided by open bribes of congress members. A supposed victory that divided the nation and is still an topic of division and controversy.

He also began a policy of racial division and efforts to damage the police and rule of law across the nation.

Then came Trump, who promised to Make America Great Again, by rebuilding the manufacturing base and pledged to end the regime change wars around the world. He also focused on enforcing migration into the U.S. as a main topic. He was the ultimate outsider candidate and actually, despite much internal opposition, he accomplished some of his goals and stayed out of any new wars.

Biden's administration was the Obama domestic policy on steroids and the policies of John Cain internationally. Soon after his inauguration he set up the situation of NATO expansion to the borders of Russia and embraced regime war through the Ukraine proxy. While it has lasted much longer than planned it is still in the works. He gave Israel free reign to begin their expansion in the region.

Trump's second term began with enforcing the border and pledging to end the Ukraine war. While it seemed he was serious, it began to look questionable that the proxy war in Ukraine has continued and negotiations seem to be unserious attempts of postponing the continuation of the war while other matters are attended to. 

We heard Marco Rubio early on talk about spheres of influence to lessen geopolitical conflicts and talk of a new Monroe doctrine which was originally focused on keeping European colonial powers out of the western Hemisphere to morphing into the U.S being the colonial master of the Hemisphere.

While there is talk of a new security strategy of focusing on the western hemisphere, we hear Marco now advocating for a new Colonialism for the western powers in Munich. This topped off with a war of regime change and worse now initiated against Iran. This verifies that Trump is now completely compromised and doing the bidding of the Epstein syndicate which actually seems to be ruling, at least the western world.

So today we hear some who say they are against the latest war, threats of voting against the war and candidates pledging to end regime change wars, it is just a sad dog and pony show. Adam Schiff claims he is going to offer the vote, but he is one of the biggest recipients of funding from Aipac, while Trump just consummated their agenda.  So beware, I suspect that if you are in office, you are part of the ruling class who desire a new Feudalism and the return to empire by plunder. Taking assets of others by military power is easier than actually rebuilding a country, at least until you run out of weapons and good soldiers.

WAR, easy to start, not so easy to end.

 WILL EUPHORIA BE SHORT LIVED?

THIS WAR MAY BE TRIGGER TO BEGIN GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS

Today is the third day of war with Iran. It is the result of over 75 years of conflict concerning Iran. We are already hearing boasts of victory and anticipation that Iran will surrender very quickly. While Iran will suffer greatly, it should be noted that air wars without real boots on the ground has had poor results even in disputes between major modern powers and less well equipped opponents.

After over 2 years in Gaza, Hamas is still surviving. The conflict with the Houthis and the U.S. ended with the U.S. declaring victory and leaving the Houthis still operational. I can't recall any major war that ended with surrender after an air campaign. To really conquer Iran may require at least 800,000 ground troops. Lindsey Graham is already suggesting U.S. special forces go in to encourage internal revolution, He should volunteer to lead these troops. 

There are now a myriad of complicated incentives at work that could very well make this a regional months long conflict, if not longer. Trump is hoping that Iran will want to negotiate in days, Iran has now made it clear that they expect to continue until Israel and the U.S. experience enough pain to desire a permanent resolution, with Iran remaining a viable country. They admit that they may fail, but will not surrender.

Israel hopes that Iran can be destroyed and dissected into small manageable parts. They have stated that they can weather 700 missiles fired into their country, we will see. They have also threatened the nuclear option, Armageddon for the region for sure. 

Trump believes Iran will quickly sue for peace and cave to Israel's demands. The U.S. military resources, depending on the intensity of their consumption, will be experiencing shortages in several weeks. Iran's first focus has concentrated on U.S. bases in the gulf, attacking bases in 8 countries, bases necessary for resupply.

The gulf countries are now experiencing unexpected disruption of revenue with air traffic suspended in the whole region. This plus the closing of the Hurmuz strait will soon have global economic consequences. Iran can keep this closed one way or another.

While much is made of the attacks on Iran, this has been mostly tomahawk  and cruise missiles fired off shore of Iran. Attack aircraft are not flying over Iran. There is a limited supply of these missiles and ships need to port to restock. At present the ships are 800 miles from Iran and all ports are within range of Iran's missiles.

This conflict will definitely have a clock running, which will either require much escalation or another way out.

While Russia and China will not directly get involved, they will be happy to assist in the bleeding of U.S. assets through supply and operational surveillance and targeting information, very similar to what NATO does with Ukraine. For them the longer the war goes, the better. Shortages of Oil will raise revenues for Russia and have more customers lined up to purchase oil.

Today gold and silver are way up, oil has already risen to $74 a barrel and is expected to increase to $100 soon. This is without a doubt going to cause global economic havoc.

The killing of  87 year old Khomeini is going to have long term consequences, it will harden the resolve of Iran, It is already causing unrest in Iraq and Pakistan and will also have consequences internally in the gulf countries. The boasting of his death is despicable.

He was the internal roadblock to Iran's acquiring nuclear weapons, no none knows what his replacement's policy will be. 

Khomeini was the spiritual leader of Shia Muslims, 200 million worldwide. They are majorities in Iran, Iraq, and Asia, but have populations in every Muslim country. Despite the demonization of him by the west, He was revered by Shia's, I expect the vast majority of people in the west never once listened to his speeches, he spoke well, very reasonable, and man of spiritual faith.  Heresy to speak that way in the west. He was comparable to the Pope to Catholics.

Sadly Americans are historically illiterate and are unwilling to listen to what anyone has to say other than their propaganda narrative. I suspect most American leaders suffer from the same problem, lots of talking, but little listening.

It is taking its toll, lets hope it ends well.

Real money is an asset that you own.

 

A BRIEF HISTORY OF MONEY

Money, we are all familiar with it, most want more, some to the point of  excess. It has been described as the, "Root of all Evil".  Realistically, we do need a certain amount, but I would like to talk about a simple brief history of Money.

Originally, most financial transactions were a form of barter, "I'll trade you a goat for that woven shirt that one of your wives made". Or, "I am tired of goats, how about we trade for some of your sheep". This all worked out well and good, but eventually someone got the bright idea of converting wealth to some form of exchange.

There is some record of salt being a form of exchange, or round stones with holes,  but most items were quick to lose their value when someone either found a pit with enough salt to flood the market or a method to mass produce stones with holes.

Eventually they settled on gold and silver as a form of money. Early records show that, as early as 2150 BC, the Shekel and Talent were used in the middle east, These were measures of weight,  A shekel was .36 of a troy weight oz. A Talent was equal to 60 manehs and 3000 shekels. This standard of weight was used by Egypt, Babylon, Phoenicia, Greece, Persia etc.  The ratio was 15 shekel's of silver = 1 shekel of gold.  Everyone had a balance scale to do business.

Finally, as governments grew and became more sophisticated, the minting of money began. This consisted of coins which were of a standardized weight, usually embossed with the image of  the King or individual in power at the time. It made trade much simpler and must have caused a recession in the scale business.

As is usually the case, it did allow for some skullduggery, clipping and shaving of coins was known to happen. Then Kings sometimes made the coins smaller with the same designation. This may have been the first form of Government endorsed inflation.  "Honey, were did we put that old scale?"

Interestingly, the size and weight of coins varied over the years, but the ratio of gold to silver was fairly constant from 500 BC up to the 20th Century.

Biblical  times-  12-1             Rome          12-1         Europe     0-1492        10-1

Early Greece      13-1             Early Japan  8-1                          1492-1834   15-1

Alexander          10-1             Early China  12-1        England                       16-1

The United States settled on the ratio of 15-1  The Constitution stated that all money was to be gold or silver coin.

O course, we have been talking about gold and silver coins. What about paper money?

In medieval Europe, gold and silver was the medium of exchange. When someone had a little more than needed for survival, they often placed it with a Goldsmith, who had a natural need for security in his business.  He would account for their items and give them a receipt.  The Rothschild's started out this way.  Humans sometimes being a little lazy, and not too careful about things, began to exchange the receipts for other goods and services and leave the gold with the goldsmith.  Goldsmiths, who were a little sharper than the average person of the day, soon realized that his receipts were as good as gold, and no one knew how much gold he really had stored for people. He was able to purchase Real-Estate, finance explorers to the new world and many other endeavors with his own receipts that did not represent gold in his possession. I could expound forever about how they used this power, but I will resist.

There were many known instances were these early bankers got a little too greedy, rumors circulated that there was more receipts than gold, and a run for their gold started.  When they could not produce the gold,  he might have been found hanging somewhere.

Remember, Politicians and Governments always take note of a good idea to increase their power and wealth.

Early paper money was a receipt for a weight of gold or silver, In the USA. a silver dollar was .7734 troy oz. of silver.  20 silver dollars could be exchanged for 1 Oz. troy of gold, a $20 gold piece. This was a ratio of 15-1. I personally remember silver certificates, which were supposed to be redeemable for 1 silver dollar. Up to 1934 you could exchange a $20 bill for a $20 gold coin. The US dollar had the reputation of being, "as good as gold". The gold-silver ratio today is 72-1.

In 1914, with passage of the Federal Reserve Act,  money no longer represented an asset, but would now represent Government debt. A promise to repay by the government.

In 1934, President Franklin Roosevelt, by executive order, ordered all citizens to turn in their Gold Coins in exchange for paper $20.00 bills. Private possession, or exchange of gold was outlawed. When the government decided they had confiscated all the gold they were going to get, they raised the price of gold to $35.00 oz., this was used for trade between countries. Those wonderful paper dollars they exchanged with the citizenry just became worth 43% less than the gold coins they exchanged.  Citizens were threatened with $10,000 fines and 10 years in jail for not cooperating.  Gold ownership was again legalized in December of 1974.

Silver still circulated as coins till 1964,  when they were replaced by alloys with no intrinsic value.

So now all money that exists, has  no intrinsic value, but only the confidence that someone else will exchange goods and services for it. While there are many instances in modern history where that confidence evaporated, so far most people are still willing to accept modern currency.

Currency itself is now in the process of being replaced with electronic currency, Bitcoin, Debit and Credit cards etc.. Endless possibilities, that will make the ancient clippers, shavers and dishonest goldsmiths envious.

originally published Oct. 12, 2015

It appears we are now coming to the end of fiat currency era, that is currency without any real built in value. What will replace it is yet to be seen. Big government would of course love to have currency that is just a digital entry, that they could manipulate, block, or devalue with a click of a computer. It seems some of the world is exploring another option that would be some form of real money. There is one of those age old truths that good money will always drive out bad money. That is true as long as there is an option of good money available. I expect we will seeing the new options in the near future. 
5/8/23

We now see the plan to introduce a central bank digital currency. Indeed, a monetary unit without any intrinsic value, unable to be held personally. It will allow governments to view every transaction, determine what transactions should be allowed, confiscate all wealth with the click of a computer key and in effect give government ultimate power over the people. It will be the end of all freedom of choice in a free market. It will give government the ability to tax, inflate, confiscate and dictate what can and cannot be traded. It will create all kinds of methods to avoid this trap and will be accompanied with the penalties to enforce that this is the only alternative money.

8/24/23

We can expect the unsustainable debt and deficits of the United States, accompanied by the desire of other countries to flee the use of the dollar, to reach a crisis in the near future. It is very likely that it will soon be clear that this debt will no longer find those willing to risk this haven for their real money. We can expect schemes to rescue this situation with possibly forced investment by IRA and 401's into U.S. debt or a sudden crisis followed by the end of this current fiat money system. We expect the cure to be total control of all assets.

5/3/2024

The EU is pushing to get its CBDC launched this year. As the debt situation in most of the western world is escalating many predict some sort of reset of the financial system. It will most likely be preceded by a debt crisis and then the roll out of the promised solution.

9/27/2024

We now see flight from U.S. bonds from countries around the world. It seems that interest rates are now possibly needed to rise to sell this debt. Those liquidating U.S. debt seem to be buying Monetary metal. The answer to shoring up the U.S. dollar and debt market is a balanced budget. With a $2 trillion deficit either raising taxes or cutting spending will cause a economic recession at best.

1/14/25

The purpose of this article is to hope to make people aware of what money is supposed to be. A store of value, an asset, not an instrument of manipulation by governments. 

3/17/2025

Gold is now $5200 an oz. silver $89.00 an oz. 57-1 ratio. No balanced budget in sight by any pollical party. The debt and deficits are unsustainable. The flight from fake paper money around the word continues.

2/27/2026

U.S. has 11 carriers, only 3 ready for deployment.

 HUGE DEFENSE BUDGET, NEVER QUESTIONED

HALF ARE SUPPOSED TO BE OPERATIONAL

As the U.S. is anticipating going to war with Iran in an operation that is very complicated and now is also of vital interest to all the major nuclear powers, it seems there is no real backup available for the those forces deployed in the region. While the forces deployed are massive, if it become prolonged, those force may be quickly placed in a catastrophic situation. 

It should be noted that in 1991 desert storm conflict the U.S. had 6 carriers deployed in the region. In 2003 it had 5 carriers in the region. Both those conflicts were for a situation in a country that was only 1/4 the size, a flat desert and an enemy with limited air defense, no satellite surveillance and not assisted by Russia and China. Iran understands that its country survival is threatened and is expected to use every available resource in retaliation.

Of the 11 major carriers in the fleet, we have the 2 in the region, we have 1, the George Bush, that has just left maintenance and in not yet considered ready. The JFK which is seaworthy, but not yet commissioned. 1 other, Nimitz being decommissioned and 6 in port for maintenance. Possibly in a desperate situation several could be deployed and arrive in several weeks. All would need to have planes put on board and supplied, no easy task.

Again, one must ask with a defense budget that dwarfs the next 10 countries in the world combined, how is this happening. Still no audit of the defense budget and no one even questioning why it is not happening.

I am no military expert by far, but is this adventure becoming a gamble, a gamble with the lives and resources of our country. Where is the risk assessment? Where is the anticipated casualty count? Is there a backup plan? What is the objective exactly? What is the exit plan?

I suspect it is mostly provided by Israeli intelligence, which claims, Iran is weak, ready to fall at any minute, it's population hates their government and is ready to fall like a house of cards. The same bullshit that applied to Russia.  We see the same players, John Bolton,  psychopath Lindsey Graham, and of course Bibi Netanyahu who has urged 4 previous presidents to go to war with Iran and all of them abstained, even when the country was in much better shape, militarily, and economically and Iran far less prepared.

I do believe Trump is searching for a way out, it may now already be too late, the momentum for war is moving and any hint of Trump not pulling the trigger will likely result in a false flag action by Israel or intelligence to make war impossible to resist. Even if Trump should mange to resist this war, the consequences will still be very serious for him. He is in a position that would take a political Houdini to escape.

THE COMING COLLAPSE OF DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISM

THE COMING COLLAPSE OF DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISM

THE QUESTION IS NOT IF, BUT WHEN? 

 

Watching the news we see economic crises worldwide. While we are not currently in a major downturn, we have been sort of treading water for the last 8 years. The  underlying problems with most economies, particularly western Europe and the United States, have not improved. In fact, the amount of debt and the future ability to deal with a downturn is a lot more unstable than before. The amount of debt held by Western countries, businesses and individuals, has actually increased since 2007. This election year we hear from some who believe if we just raise taxes on the wealthy all will be well. Others contend that all will be well if we can just instill confidence that a solution is near. Sorry. All will not be well. Taxes would have to be doubled in most cases, which will cause an economic collapse, or government spending would have to be cut in half, which will also cause a collapse.

Of course the problem is that there has been an accumulation of extraordinary debt by all governments, corporations, and individuals. There is not a precedent for this situation in human history. While the housing bubble was the symptom that was burst, when gas rose to $4.00 a gallon, in the US the massive debts held by everyone was the real problem. Debts of individuals can be traced to central banks that have not been willing to clear excess debts since the early 1980’s. Instead, they have encouraged and enabled individuals to borrow beyond their means to repay. We now see a classic debt collapse scenario where people are having a hard time servicing the debt they have and banks are raising standards to stop losses...with the economy stagnating until the debts are reduced to normal levels. This may take decades rather than years. 　

A far bigger problem is the debt of governments, particularly in Western Europe and the US. These debts are a direct result of massive spending and the whole idea of democratic socialism where votes were bought by promising unsustainable benefits...to individuals, spending on projects, surveys, studies, ad nauseum... to the well connected. When fulfilling these promises could not be sustained by raising taxes they just borrowed the money to be consumed. The spending on projects, etc. is more easily addressed by just saying "NO"...BUT the spending on benefits is much more difficult to address. The real culprit in all this is that socialism has been a dismal failure whenever it has been tried. I should qualify that by distinguishing between voluntary and involuntary socialism.

Voluntary socialism is self limiting. An example is fire insurance. If the incidence of loss becomes excessive, premiums go up and some people may refuse to buy insurance. If losses become excessive insurance companies may refuse to enter that market. There are natural limits for both parties.

The first instance of collectivist failure was recorded in the New Testament. The early Christians, thinking that the end was near, sold there possessions, dined together and shared with each other. It was not long until Paul, hearing complaints from the responsible members of the community, wrote to them saying, “He who does not work shall not eat.” Human nature and the voluntary basis of this experiment was a natural remedy.

Another example was the Puritans who landed in Plymouth in 1620. They formed the, "Mayflower Compact," an agreement to share all property and work in common. After 3 years of this experiment, they were barely able to survive. The Puritan's endeavor had been financed by investors in Europe who hoped they would reap a profit by the Puritans repaying their debts with furs and other goods. After 3 years of no return, investors refused to send any more support and the idea was scrapped. The Puritans then distributed land to each family and they were on their own - the result was the beginning of prosperity for all.  It was chronicled by William Bradford that while the number of people who were either too weak or incapable of work grew, and the young and motivated were increasingly unhappy with the communal arrangement, many who formally were unable to add much to the community instantly became more productive when they were able to keep the fruits of their labor.

Remember the 1960’s  communes, where a few self motivated people bought a ranch and lived off the land? It was not long until they were supporting a larger and larger number of new disciples, who agreed it was wonderful, except for the motivation part. Again it ended in a natural turn of events and human nature.

Now to involuntary socialism. Of course the greatest example has to be the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. This experiment was immediate total government control that in the end was a dramatic failure. It may take Russia several generations to recover from the debacle. While touted by Socialists as the wonderful system of the future, (including Eleanor Roosevelt who visited the country many times in the 1930s when the worst atrocities were being committed), Solzhenitsyn and others saw and reported the true nature of the experiment. It's interesting to note that from the revolution in the USSR in 1917 to its collapse in 1989 was 72 years. If we take 1935 as the "embrace of socialism" in western Europe and the US, we end up at 2007. Does it take roughly this long for the failures of socialism to become unsustainable? While we have not had total control by the governments of western Europe or the US, we have been progressing in that direction for decades...hence the term progressivism. It has been a slow incremental movement that has taken control of most industries through regulation and has encouraged dependency by promising a safety net to those displaced by their policies. The part of the private sector that has not been effectively controlled by the government is the food and energy sector. They are in the process of taking over the energy sector and when they can control food they will have complete control of the economy and the people. Remember the winners of socialist economies are the ruling class who often live well off on what they skim off of the redistribution schemes. Even in the Soviet Union they lived well in their dachaus and had access to  travel and benefits that could only be dreamed of by the rest of the population.

While it all appears wonderful in theory, Unchangeable Human Nature has not been taken into account. Humans will help each other to some extent, but most will not jeopardize their or their families well-being for others. On a voluntary basis, many are willing to help those in need, in danger, etc. but as soon as it becomes involuntary, there will be resistance. This is just the nature of human survival instincts. While it may not measure up to the expectations of the ideologues of socialism, it is probably superior to all other organisms on earth. The Soviet experiment ended when there were no longer any incentives left. The Russians who have weathered one form of dictatorship for their whole existence were noted to remark to each other, "We pretend to work, and they pretend to pay us." In the end the only prospering part of the economy was the black market and flea markets.

So what has happened in every case of involuntary socialism?  Those who believe they are taxed too much will resist by finding ways to pay less; those who believe they are restricted in some way will find ways around the restrictions. Too much tax will usually create less revenue, etc. At first this is accepted or minimally enforced, but as the deficits grow, enforcement must increase and we see a cycle of increased enforcement, then less activity, then less revenue and if left to follow a linear path to forced labor and slavery.

In the U.S. there was once a work ethic and pride of self reliance - many would not accept charity, but after decades of increasing regulation and taxation it seems all restraint has fallen off and everyone will take and pursue more benefits, even if liquidating assets and claiming poverty is necessary. The dam has broken. The tipping point has been reached. It will not likely be restored by government action, or by acts of Congress, the same applies to Western Europe.

So what is the solution? At this point there is no easy solution. All solutions will require much pain and suffering. It may be limited by economic suffering and the necessary austerity to liquidate the debt and begin a new start with liberty and self reliance the foundation...OR...it may be that more enforcement will be needed until we return to feudal type society where basic necessities will be provided to the productive and compliant and those that do not conform will be eliminated from society by the powers that be. This is the question that will be answered when the coming collapse reaches its fulfillment.

originally published 2/11/2016

update 9/1/22   We are about to see the fulfillment of this narrative, possibly within months in Western Europe and then on to the U.S.

update 3/10/2023  We see the new budget is increased by 1 Trillion dollars. Debt of over 31 Trillion. Inflation destroying buying power. It is all unsustainable. 

update 11/16/2023, all the problems are now more severe, $34 trillion debt, $2 trillion deficit. Bond market in trouble. Any attempts to fiscal responsibility labeled extreme. 

update 5/24/2024, U.S. now incurring debt at the rate of $1 trillion every 100 days. Gold $2450 oz. While all seems well, it is all unsustainable, Economic crisis on the horizon.

Update 2/19/2025. U.S. debt nears $37 trillion. Gold $2940. Trump and DOGE attempt to reform spending and fraud in budget. Many would rather go down with the ship than change this unsustainable course.

Update 7/21/2025. U.S. debt now over $37 Trillion. deficit near $2 Trillion. Gold $3300 per oz. All unsustainable.

Update 2/25/2026. U.S. debt now near $39 Trillion, deficit near $2 trillion, 25% of budget. Gold over $5100 per oz.  A major economic event could trigger the crisis of the century.

Iran war, more complicated by the day.

 NO UPSIDE FOR THE UNITED STATES

WILL TRUMP MAKE DEAL ANNOUNCMENT TONIGHT?

It seems the world has been on the verge of war with Iran forever, actually it is becoming tiring, just listening to the litany of reasons why a war with Iran is necessary. We hear about Iran being on the brink of being a nuclear power for now 30 years. We hear that they are the number 1 sponsor of world terrorism. We hear that the government is a fanatical doomsday religious cult that is a threat to the world. We hear that they are irrational and can never be trusted with a nuclear weapon. I suspect that it is all bullshit. There are no nuclear weapons, they actually have not attacked anyone who did not first attack them. They have supported groups who are resisting the Palestinian situation, much like the U.S. support of violent groups all around the world.

There are two real reasons why Iran has been on the radar for 46 years, if not 83 years, one is oil, Iran has large reserves of high quality oil, the good stuff, not the marginal oil of Venezuela.  The U.S., with the prompting of Britain, overthrew their first elected government in 1953, because the new government believed that their oil reserves should be used for the benefit of their people, not the fading British empire. They propped up the Shaw of Iran until 1979, 26 years, until the Islamic revolution replaced the dictatorship of the Shaw. 

The Shaw's power was maintained by the CIA trained SAVAK that had unlimited power to brutally keep the Shaw in power and thus insure access by the west to Iran's oil. They not only surveilled Iran but dissidents around the world, likely assisted by western intelligence. It is one reason why Iran in modern times has had real reasons to be suspicious of the U.S. and western powers. It is now hilarious if not so disastrous that the west is now pushing the son of the former Shaw who has neve been in Iran, to now run the country.

The number 2 reason is Israel, Iran historically has been the largest and dominate power in the region for centuries, if not millenniums. Much of that power has been neutralized by western powers in the 20th century. While many don't accept the reality that Israel desires to be the strongest military power in the region, an impossibility without the power of the US. These two reason are the 2 dominate reasons and then there is a third. 

Iran sits geographically in a pivotal position for the evolving trade aspirations of the global south and BRICS economic union. Iran is very important to the nuclear powers of Russia, China and even India in their hope of becoming a independent and alternative world economic system. A system that does not desire the destruction of the present system, except to be free to do business without the intimidation and sanctions that has become the policy of the west led by the United States. These other major powers have real incentives to see Iran free of western dominance and they a closely monitoring the situation and also now providing satellite surveillance and electronic assistance. This makes war with Iran now much more complicated. 

Iran is now in a position that they do not have to prevail over the United States and Israel, all they have to do is survive and inflict substantial damage on their adversaries, a very likely outcome. The prestige of the United States will be damaged if it cannot overthrow the government and partition up Iran. Can the United States easily replace the resources and equipment likely to be lost in this war? Much of the $39 trillion in debt of the U.S. can be attributed to previous military undertakings in the region, this will be the biggest, when the U.S. is the most fragile economically.

Then there was the interview with U.S., ambassador to Israel that stated that U.S. would not mind if Israel ruled the entire region. A political disaster at a pivotal time. To be realistic, the gulf allies of the U.S. are most likely a very fragile bunch, kept in line by military fear and unlimited dollars. Not to mention Turkey and Egypt, who I would not trust their support once there is blood in the water.

Then once the missiles and aircraft are in the air and the chaos of war begins, can the Chinese and Russian submarines feel they can accomplish plausible deniability of some limited assistance. 

So, Iran has made it clear, that they will negotiate terms that can insure, no nuclear weapons, but will not disarm its conventional defense or ability to be self reliant in nuclear energy. This deal was available over a year ago, but vetoed by Israel. Will Trump now proclaim victory, by announcing the deal of no nukes for Iran or risk the complications of war with Iran. We are now going to see his decision making result very soon.

Court reigns in Trump on tariff's.

 CONGRESS NEEDS TO ASSUME THEIR RESPONSIBILITIES

TRUMP HAD IT RIGHT IN FIRST TERM

On Friday the supreme court ruled that President Trump overstepped his authority with much of his tariff policy, it was a good decision. I suspect that Trump could have enjoyed a certain amount of leeway in his tariffs if he would have been consistent and keep tariff's as part of trade policy. His policy in his first term was to use tariff's as a tool to negotiate with trade partners to end their discriminatory tariffs on U.S. goods. It was a quicker way to balance fair trade without years of disputes in the World Trade organization, he had some success with that policy.

The idea of a flat 10% tariff on imported goods could be a good idea, if the revenue  would be used to improve infrastructure that is necessary to faciality trade, airports, ports, highways, all necessary for both domestic and international trade. A better way would be a flat assessment by percentage of trade with those that export to the country with a payment from those countries to the U.S. infrastructure fund, as a fee to gain access to U.S. markets. It would be non discriminatory and would be less likely to be paid by U.S. consumers. That and negotiations based on reciprocal tariffs, could be acceptable to all involved. The original idea was to negotiate to end tariffs.

In this term it seems Trump has gone astray with idea that he can effect foreign policy of both allies and competitors with imposing large tariff's to force compliance with issues other than trade. Some of this was forced by members of the Senate, one has to wonder if they hoped to effect change or damage Trump. Attempting to force others to not do business with Russia, at their economic damage, by oppressive and discriminatory tariffs. Tariffing India, but exempting China because China has more leverage than India, is likely to have a long term result of many just coming to the conclusion that trade with the U.S. is too complicated and even dangerous. The Idea inherited from previous administrations that there cannot be any country adopting a policy of neutrality, is bad policy. The idea that every country has to adopt the U.S. foreign policy objectives, even at their economic peril, will in the long run, force the much anticipated duel world economic systems, that will leave the western world behind.  

After one year of this policy, it is not too late to change course, the court has given Trump the out to move in a better direction, at least as far trade is concerned. If congress would assume their responsibilities, it could give him the out in ending of wars of regime change. Sadly, congress has morphed into efforts of short term political advantage, with little real policy or long term objectives. Most of them are  disgrace to their office.