Yemen/Saudi war escalates,

 ANSAR ALLAH ENCIRCLES TAIZZ

WEST HOPES FOR SUNNI SHIA WAR

 

The war between Yemen and Saudi Arabia intensified yesterday as the Saudi backed fighters attempted to retake the strait on the Red sea. It is reported that attempt has failed and at the same time Ansar Allah as encircled Taizz the second most populated city in Yemen. While Ansar Allah or Houthis have been labeled the rebel forces, they control the largest city Sanas and may soon control the second largest Taizz. They control the west and north which is the majority of the populated part of Yemen.

 

Yemen has a population of 43 million and Saudi Arabia has a population of 35 million, many of their population are foreign workers. Yemen is majority Shia and Saudi Arabia Suni. There has been conflict between the two since 1935 when Saudi Arabia took several former areas in northern Yemen. While Yemen is often labeled an Iranian proxy they are actually independent in their policies, but aligned with Iran. 

 

It is reported that there are now French, British and US advisers in Saudi Arabia and also that 40,000 Pakistani troops are on the way to assist the Saudi's. Extensive bombing continued of Yemen yesterday and the Saudi pipeline to the Red sea was again disabled along with major damage to their biggest refinery.  It is also reported that the pipeline has no air defense but is patrolled by US helicopters.

 

Majority Shia Pakistan risks revolt at home by aiding western allied governments. the present government has long been cooperative with the CIA and has displaced the most popular president of Pakistan Imran Khan, under pressure from the US. Khan is presently in prison after surviving an assassination attempt. Khan had hoped to move Pakistan into a neutral position in global politics. We will see how the Shia population views their soldiers fighting against a Shia nation.

 

This Yemen war is part of the Iran war, possibly to secure a safe area in Saudi Arabia for a staging area.  It also provides a Suni/Shia conflict that would hopefully cause destruction of both sides in a Muslim conflict, an eternal strategy of divide and conquer. Saudi Arabia has always viewed itself as the leader of the Muslim world, but its standing in the Muslim world is under question.

 

Israel would like a militarily devastated region and the US ultimately wants control of all gulf oil. It appears the region is on its way to being devastated, which will result in a global economic crisis and the oil may be unavailable for years, if these conflicts continue.

 

 

 

 

 

Will Iran strike first?

 US & ISRAEL ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME WAR

NO LONGER A SURPRISE ATTACK 

 

Few actually expect any kind of peace agreement with Iran, including Iran. Trump has made it clear that an attack is coming, if not now, after the US and Israeli elections.  the election results will have no bearing on this attack, both Trump and Netanyahu will still be charge. 

 

Many speculate that Iran may attack as soon as they see signs  of an imminent attack. Iran has only attacked once in the last 6 months that was not in retaliation to US strikes. Israel has refrained from any attacks on Iran, possibly in an effort to stockpile its munitions.  

 

Iran will most likely not change that pattern, as the policy of allowing the US and Israel to start the action has benefited them in world opinion, not in the US or other western countries, but in other parts of the world.  Iran will know as soon as the planes are in the sky and it will give them time to put drones and missiles in the air before any actual ordnance strikes Iran. In fact, US planes will need to travel further and refuel before dropping their stand off weapons, which will give Iran an opportunity to put drones into the air in the refueling area, it could be a very hazardous activity.

 

Many believe this attack is coming before the elections and aircraft and resources are on the way to the region. This coming attack looks like it will be an effort to be a decisive effort, hoping to put an end to the standoff. It could very well be just that, but it is uncertain what the outcome will be.  It is unlikely that the US will be able to muster the resources in the near future for anther attack this year. 

 

If Iran is destroyed, it will set off another chain of events that are unpredictable, migration, terrorism and other problems will be hard to estimate. If the US is stymied, it may very well end its position in the region and usher in a new era in West Asia.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why Trump is unconcerned about the midterms.

 INCONSEQUENTIAL TO HIS AGENDA 

DEMOCRATS WILL BE POWERLESS  

 

Some have speculated that Trump really has little concern about the results of the midterm elections. Trump has even stated publicly that the elections are not relevant for him. He may be more right than most would like to admit.

 

Trump has essentially passed most of his domestic agenda that was possible in this term. It is pretty obvious that he will need to focus on foreign policy and trade and the congress will have little power to change any of his foreign policy decisions. While they may be able stop funding for some items, they will not stop funding Ukraine or Israel as they are just as beholding to the neo-con foreign policy lobby and the Israel lobby as the present congress.

 

While they probably could be successful in getting Trump's support on some legislation if they could agree to trading or compromising, they will most likely do what Democrats usually do, spend the next 2 years with investigations and court filings. None of those paths will yield any results in the next 2 years and Trump will continue on his foreign policy path that they will not have the courage to oppose.

 

Politically speaking, a Democrat win this November may be the best thing to happen for Republicans in 2028. Trump will  not be impeached by the Senate and I suspect most Americans are very tired politically. I see no real Democrat solutions, just more of the same kind of things they propose. They most likely will give Republicans lots of ammunition for 2028.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Diesel exports, fake terrorist attack in UK.

  LAW ENFORCEMENT RELEASES TERRORISTS ON BAIL?

TRUMP PROMISED EU ALTERNATIVE TO RUSSIAN FUEL 

 

The Prime minister of the UK has alleged that Iran was behind the alleged possible attack on the UK airbase. Amazing that the suspects were released on bail within hours of their apprehension and also no explosives were found. Just another nail in the coffin of government credibility, not just in the US, but most everywhere in the western world. We continually witness misinformation, not coming from the tabloids or even from many of the so called adversaries. One has to wonder if all these people are just dumb, incompetent or do they intentionally want everyone to believe that truth does not exist anywhere.

 

We also hear even from mainstream media that the exports of oil out of the strait is now near prewar levels. While we can assume oil is being shipped, why the absurd misinformation, will voters now feel that all is well? 

 

One of the reason that the US is exporting LNG and other energy to the EU is that it was promised to do just that, if the EU agreed to stop buying Russian oil. The EU had 30 year contracts with Russia at very reasonable prices and the US told them that we provided their defense and they should buy US oil and gas. I suspect just another election year bit of misinformation that can be pondered at least until after the election. Even if it is announced that exports are halted, it is probably not going to happen.

 

The Russian Ukraine war is intense with a Ukrainian counter offensive pushing Russians back in the Lyman area, while Russia is systematically destroying the energy, electric and transportation network in Ukraine. Russia has also cut off all shipping in and out of Odessa. Most are concerned for the people of Ukraine when winter sets in.

 

While we hear of peace deals in Iran, it is all more misinformation, the war will escalate after the election and it is undetermined if there will be any winner, or just a lot of death and destruction and economic panic with no real end.  

 

We can expect a low level of chaos, the kind we are getting used to,  on all fronts for the rest of 2026. 

 

 

 

 

 

Voting when foreign policy overwhelms domestic options.

VOTES HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON FOREIGN POLICY

VOTING HAS DIMINISHING EFFECTIVENESS

 

We are now in the peak of the voting season, bombarded with calls, messages and expensive mail, most of it misinformation, if not outright lies. While we seem to have a hard time motivating voters with threats of Data Centers, medicare cuts and of course the usual threats of Social Security cuts, it all comes down to stimulating some sort of fear or greed.

 

It is all in reality about domestic policy and even domestic policy is a continually shrinking list of real options. The reality is there is no more money for social security, the end dollar amount has been shrinking for decades under both parties. While you may have few more dollars, that will buy far less, due to inflation. In reality both parties will be cutting the buying power of social security far into the future. 

 

Then of course the Democrats promise to add free collage to the young voter, free drugs to the old voters, open borders to recent immigrants and more benefits of some sort. Sorry, forget about it, there is no money left, in fact the Washington crowd has already spent the nations possible income for the next 50 years. Of course, we hear that all these empty promises will be paid for by taxing the rich, problem is, if you have an income, you are the rich. If all the assets of the rich, say everyone over 1 Billion, were confiscated,  I suspect, they could not pay off the debt. 

 

The Republicans, of course, will appeal to anyone with a positive net worth to protect them from the democrats. 

 

Both parties will claim to make sure to protect everyone from the Russians, the Chinese and of course the Iranians, who all hate us and are jealous of our cushy lifestyle. If you don't fear them they promise to free them from their current oppression and allow them to also have a cushy lifestyle as a humanitarian gift. Of course if few million die in that effort, they are far better off. 

 

No matter the outcome of this coming election, the wars will go on,  as they have for the last decades, the president, no matter which party, will be a salesman for military equipment, it seems this is now our biggest export.  And more war can only add for the need for more of this equipment by anyone who fears their neighbor and of course increases our exports. 

 

So when you vote this year, understand that you will always be voting for the lesser of two evils, none of them can pay off the debt, none of them can increase your benefits and none of them have the power to stop the wars. It may be to vote for the one who will hurt you the least. Of course you should vote, it is your duty, just don't expect much change in the direction of the country. 

 

 

 

 

 

Iran, wrecker of Presidents.

 WILL IRAN ADD TRUMP TO CARTER AND REAGAN?

MAYBE NETANYAHU TOO 

 

Afghanistan is known as the graveyard of empires and the experience of Britain, Russia and the US give that reputation some credibility. Wise leaders, having a knowledge of history might surmise that it best to stay away from there. The same could be said for fights with Russia in Ukraine, the experiences of Napoleon, Hitler and the present attrition of the west give that reputation lots of credence.

 

While the conclusion of the present conflict with Iran is still not settled, it is becoming apparent that it will destroy the Presidency of Donald Trump. No matter the outcome, his advertised agenda has been derailed, his historic movement put on life support and far worse is still possible.

 

Jimmy Carter, who made peace between Israel and Egypt and had other positive accomplishments was all overshadowed by Iran holding US hostages for over a year. The frustration of Carter, president of the most powerful nation on earth ended with his presidency listed among the least successful in history. Iran used the hostages to buy time to avoid military action from the US and it was effective.

 

While Ronald Reagan survived his interaction with Iran, possibly because he avoided war there, it did cause lots of turmoil and damage. 

 

Even Netanyahu, the longest serving president of Israel, his obsession with Iran may be his ultimate undoing. He and his country have descended into global pariahhood that may take decades to undo.  

 

The old saying, "history repeats itself", may be being demonstrated in numerous existing conflicts. The other old proverb,"Discretion is the better part of valor" surely is being demonstrated daily.  It may be that today's leaders should have discarded hubris for a few more history lessons.

 

 

 

 

Will Bond and Energy markets wait until after election?

  WILL WAR RESUME SOONER RATHER THAN LATER?

LOGISTICS IS THE BIG QUESTION

 

Trump is claiming that he will decide to escalate war after the elections, just saying that indicates that he would prefer to not wait that long. The bond market is indicating that it is not willing to wait another 6 weeks. today the 30 yr is at 5.54%, 10yr 5.23 and 3 yr 5.06%, if this trend continues, war may be the least of his worries.

 

I suspect war would be underway now if the materials, troops and all the necessary details would allow for it, but the logistics for modern warfare is becoming increasingly difficult. Particularly against Iran, a natural fortress, with all areas of possible staging within range of Iranian missiles. If it was possible to have defeated Iran by military action it would have already been accomplished. 

 

It seems that tankers, and troops are being deployed to the region. Saudi Arabia may be the preferred staging area, hence the ongoing attempt by Saudi Arabia to neutralize the Yemen forces. The plan is probably a massive air campaign and a limited ground operation to take control of the strait of Hormuz.  

 

The hope would be to use the limited precision weapons to take out Iran's air defenses and offensive capabilities and then follow up with massive carpet bombing with B-52 a B1 bombers. The first priority would be to take out the air defenses, if not successful the bombers would be in danger of being taken out. It is assumed that Russia and China have assisted in beefing up Iran's air defense. Any successful attack on Iran will be a series of successful steps, any one unsuccessful step could be catastrophic. At the same time Iran's offensive capabilities will need to be eliminated or the worlds oil supply could be limited for years to come. The goal will be to take out Iran's infrastructure and make it impossible to sustain it' s population for the foreseeable future. A failure by the US will be the end of its influence in the region.

 

While oil and bond market pressure may be in a hurry for stability, an actual resumption and a positive outcome may be far into the future.