Iran war, more complicated by the day.

 NO UPSIDE FOR THE UNITED STATES

WILL TRUMP MAKE DEAL ANNOUNCMENT TONIGHT?

It seems the world has been on the verge of war with Iran forever, actually it is becoming tiring, just listening to the litany of reasons why a war with Iran is necessary. We hear about Iran being on the brink of being a nuclear power for now 30 years. We hear that they are the number 1 sponsor of world terrorism. We hear that the government is a fanatical doomsday religious cult that is a threat to the world. We hear that they are irrational and can never be trusted with a nuclear weapon. I suspect that it is all bullshit. There are no nuclear weapons, they actually have not attacked anyone who did not first attack them. They have supported groups who are resisting the Palestinian situation, much like the U.S. support of violent groups all around the world.

There are two real reasons why Iran has been on the radar for 46 years, if not 83 years, one is oil, Iran has large reserves of high quality oil, the good stuff, not the marginal oil of Venezuela.  The U.S., with the prompting of Britain, overthrew their first elected government in 1953, because the new government believed that their oil reserves should be used for the benefit of their people, not the fading British empire. They propped up the Shaw of Iran until 1979, 26 years, until the Islamic revolution replaced the dictatorship of the Shaw. 

The Shaw's power was maintained by the CIA trained SAVAK that had unlimited power to brutally keep the Shaw in power and thus insure access by the west to Iran's oil. They not only surveilled Iran but dissidents around the world, likely assisted by western intelligence. It is one reason why Iran in modern times has had real reasons to be suspicious of the U.S. and western powers. It is now hilarious if not so disastrous that the west is now pushing the son of the former Shaw who has neve been in Iran, to now run the country.

The number 2 reason is Israel, Iran historically has been the largest and dominate power in the region for centuries, if not millenniums. Much of that power has been neutralized by western powers in the 20th century. While many don't accept the reality that Israel desires to be the strongest military power in the region, an impossibility without the power of the US. These two reason are the 2 dominate reasons and then there is a third. 

Iran sits geographically in a pivotal position for the evolving trade aspirations of the global south and BRICS economic union. Iran is very important to the nuclear powers of Russia, China and even India in their hope of becoming a independent and alternative world economic system. A system that does not desire the destruction of the present system, except to be free to do business without the intimidation and sanctions that has become the policy of the west led by the United States. These other major powers have real incentives to see Iran free of western dominance and they a closely monitoring the situation and also now providing satellite surveillance and electronic assistance. This makes war with Iran now much more complicated. 

Iran is now in a position that they do not have to prevail over the United States and Israel, all they have to do is survive and inflict substantial damage on their adversaries, a very likely outcome. The prestige of the United States will be damaged if it cannot overthrow the government and partition up Iran. Can the United States easily replace the resources and equipment likely to be lost in this war? Much of the $39 trillion in debt of the U.S. can be attributed to previous military undertakings in the region, this will be the biggest, when the U.S. is the most fragile economically.

Then there was the interview with U.S., ambassador to Israel that stated that U.S. would not mind if Israel ruled the entire region. A political disaster at a pivotal time. To be realistic, the gulf allies of the U.S. are most likely a very fragile bunch, kept in line by military fear and unlimited dollars. Not to mention Turkey and Egypt, who I would not trust their support once there is blood in the water.

Then once the missiles and aircraft are in the air and the chaos of war begins, can the Chinese and Russian submarines feel they can accomplish plausible deniability of some limited assistance. 

So, Iran has made it clear, that they will negotiate terms that can insure, no nuclear weapons, but will not disarm its conventional defense or ability to be self reliant in nuclear energy. This deal was available over a year ago, but vetoed by Israel. Will Trump now proclaim victory, by announcing the deal of no nukes for Iran or risk the complications of war with Iran. We are now going to see his decision making result very soon.

Court reigns in Trump on tariff's.

 CONGRESS NEEDS TO ASSUME THEIR RESPONSIBILITIES

TRUMP HAD IT RIGHT IN FIRST TERM

On Friday the supreme court ruled that President Trump overstepped his authority with much of his tariff policy, it was a good decision. I suspect that Trump could have enjoyed a certain amount of leeway in his tariffs if he would have been consistent and keep tariff's as part of trade policy. His policy in his first term was to use tariff's as a tool to negotiate with trade partners to end their discriminatory tariffs on U.S. goods. It was a quicker way to balance fair trade without years of disputes in the World Trade organization, he had some success with that policy.

The idea of a flat 10% tariff on imported goods could be a good idea, if the revenue  would be used to improve infrastructure that is necessary to faciality trade, airports, ports, highways, all necessary for both domestic and international trade. A better way would be a flat assessment by percentage of trade with those that export to the country with a payment from those countries to the U.S. infrastructure fund, as a fee to gain access to U.S. markets. It would be non discriminatory and would be less likely to be paid by U.S. consumers. That and negotiations based on reciprocal tariffs, could be acceptable to all involved. The original idea was to negotiate to end tariffs.

In this term it seems Trump has gone astray with idea that he can effect foreign policy of both allies and competitors with imposing large tariff's to force compliance with issues other than trade. Some of this was forced by members of the Senate, one has to wonder if they hoped to effect change or damage Trump. Attempting to force others to not do business with Russia, at their economic damage, by oppressive and discriminatory tariffs. Tariffing India, but exempting China because China has more leverage than India, is likely to have a long term result of many just coming to the conclusion that trade with the U.S. is too complicated and even dangerous. The Idea inherited from previous administrations that there cannot be any country adopting a policy of neutrality, is bad policy. The idea that every country has to adopt the U.S. foreign policy objectives, even at their economic peril, will in the long run, force the much anticipated duel world economic systems, that will leave the western world behind.  

After one year of this policy, it is not too late to change course, the court has given Trump the out to move in a better direction, at least as far trade is concerned. If congress would assume their responsibilities, it could give him the out in ending of wars of regime change. Sadly, congress has morphed into efforts of short term political advantage, with little real policy or long term objectives. Most of them are  disgrace to their office.

Ready for WAR, time for congress to decide.

 TRUMP SHOULD DEMAND CONGRESS DECIDES

MAKE THEM VOTE

It seems the U.S. is now positioned to go to war with Iran. President Trump has indicated that it his decision, but constitutionally it is not, it is solely a decision to be made by congress. This should require several days of debate, with testimony from witnesses, They can even bring in some foreigners, like Netanyahu to make the case.

War needs a simple majority in both the House and Senate, but I would demand a 60% vote in the Senate, I think if 60% is required to pass spending bills, it should be required to engage in the biggest war since WW2. 

Trump should defer from making a recommendation, He should let the congress decide. Those advocating for war can be led by blood lusting psychopath Lindsey Graham, I am sure he would just love that job. 

Advocates and those opposed should have several days to call witness's to give their input, then a vote in the House and if passed then send it to the Senate to have a similar debate. That is the correct way to force the nation into a pivotal war that may have lasting consequences for all the citizens. It is their responsibility and it is high time they start to taking that responsibility, that they all seem to want when they decide to be representatives and senators. 

If it it approved, then it should be left to President to decide when such action should be taken or he could  veto their decision, it would then require a 2/3 vote to override, that is the right way to do this.

Trade wars and military action will never restore America.

 AMERICAS DECLINE IS ROOTED IN DEBT AND LOSS OF MANUFACTURING CAPACITY

THREATS AND FORCE ARE NOT THE REMEDY

While the country is in the verge of war, again, in the middle east, with a country that is not a real threat to the United States, but will cost the country billions in resources, no matter the outcome. Winning will not make us safer or more prosperous, but just add to the debt and loss of credibility in the world. 

For many years the United States has engaged in war, economic and military in an effort to sustain its global dominance. That dominance was earned post WW2 when the country was the number 1 producer of goods, the greatest manufacturing country and a dollar that was considered "As good as Gold" Sadly that is no longer the case. Its seems the policy for the last few decades is, that if we can contain, hamper or limit the success of our competitors we can sustain our dominance. It is a delusional and destined to fail policy.

While the  unrestrained rush to globalism has contributed to the problem, it cannot be remedied by attempting to limit others by denying them access either to the U.S. market or U.S. products. One example is that while China has become a dominant producer in certain areas it was willing to buy products from the U.S. that they did not have to expend resources to develop and it helped to limit the growing balance of trade deficit for the U.S., one was computer chips and also grain. Our genius policy makers decided that we should limit our sales to China of products that would assist in their development, the very products that helped us stay competitive at least in some areas. The most obvious was computer chips, which was a massive export by us to China, so we limited those sales in an effort to slow China down and they responded by establishing their own chip manufacturing and out produced and out sold our businesses, which then had less resources to keep up their dominance in that field. Our answer was for the government to subsidize those business's to keep them competitive.  More debt and dependence on government will most likely not keep them competitive. This will also add to the lose of our manufacturing base. Grain sales were replaced by other countries not engaged in containment policies.

China has the financial resources to focus and become competitive and even dominate in any field that they desire. The U.S. has near $39 trillion in resources tied up in debt that has financed prior spending. Until this situation is addressed, the U.S. will continue on a path of decline.

Then there is another group of geniuses who believe we can intimidate the rest of world to submit to our mandates, accept out debased currency, due to deficit spending, as payment, all under the threat of sanctions and military force. While we may have the most advanced and powerful military in the world, we should be seeing that it may be a hollow giant. How is it that insignificant Russia, "a gas station posing as a county" has been able to sustain and even out produce the whole of NATO in conventional weapons. Yet, we see the Defense budget increased and now hoping to increase it by 50% , without anyone asking the question, where is all the money going? A huge expenditure for a sector now considered "too big to Audit", sounds like a very similar excuse for excusing corruption.

U.S. stockpiles are admitted to be very depleted due to massive outlays of ordinance and equipment to Ukraine and Israel. While all this assistance may help the defense sector to be prosperous, will help most Americans? How dependent are we for vital material from the same countries we are trying to contain? Can the U.S. sustain a prolonged conflict without running out of ordinance?  A conflict that endures for months or years rather days? Can we replace ships and expensive equipment? I suspect that real military analysts are asking those questions, but are they being drowned out by donor paid for politicians.

I suspect that many of these questions will be answered in the near future.

 needed and did not have ot expend resources 

We can expect confrontation on the high seas.

 DO U.S. ORDERS TRANSLATE INTO INTERNATIONAL LAW?

LOOKING FOR THE DEFINNG MOMENT FOR WW3

One must wonder were the limits are to the U.S. control of the commerce of the world?   We all understand that the U.S. has the right to refuse to do business with anyone they don't approve. We understand that tariffs can be placed on anyone that the U.S. feels it wants to punish. Now it seems if countries just find other customers or trading partners we believe we can also damage their trading partners through tariff's and other economic warfare, that is possible, but should expect economic retaliation. 

Now since the use of an embargo or blockade of Venezuela and Cuba,  of course under the pretext of obeying international law, that now seems to be manufactured unilaterally by the U.S., we are seeing an attempt to expand the use of blockades and embargos around the world. No one questions that he U.S. has the most powerful Navy in the world. So far, no one has challenged this Navy since WW2. If the U.S believes that it can blockade advanced powers on the world stage without pushback, it has indeed gone down the path of delusional overreach.

It appears that the only nation that is willing to go down the path of WW3 is the United States. We will undoubtedly see either armed commercial vessels that will challenge being taken control of or escorted vessels in the near future. It is very likely that there will very well be an organized effort to preserve the right of navigation around the world. If this attempt to control commerce around the world continues there will be a confrontation in the near future. A confrontation that may be impetus to finally move this economic warfare to the real deal. 

The danger is growing by the day and when you put others in a existential threatening position, war will soon follow.

 Unbited /states.

There will be war, Just a question of who will start it.

 UNREALISTIC NEGOTIATIONS AND OIL EMBARGOS 

ACTS OF WAR, NOW EVERYDAY OCCURANCE

The most likely beginning of the next war is Iran. Indications are that Iran is willing to insure against obtaining nuclear weapons, but Israel has demanded that they must give up all nuclear energy enrichment and also their missile deterrent. While Trump at one time had an agreement with Iran on Nuclear weapons, that was rejected by Israel. It is reported that Trump was told by Netanyahu that either Trump destroys Iran's missile program or they will do it, and that the U.S. will then be forced by public opinion to join in. Under those conditions war is inevitable, Iran can never agree to disarm, especially at the instance of Israel. 

At the same time we have the increasing situation of the U.S. deciding to interfere in oil shipment worldwide. Besides the embargo on Venezuela oil, only to be sold to those approved by the U.S., they have begun to attempt to interfere with oil shipment out of Iran. This is likely to hamper Iran's monetary situation and also put pressure on China economically. These are now all act of WAR, which will inevitably lead to catastrophic results. Not only war with Iran, but China may also feel that interfering with their oil supplies is intolerable. There have also been attacks on Russian oil shipments in many places, some contend that it is a CIA operation.

Objectively, one must wonder why Iran has not yet initiated this war as it now seems inevitable and time is allowing more resources to become available against them, unless they feel time is on their side to prepare for this conflict and world public opinion will be unfavorable to the initiator.

At the same time, one must wonder how long Russia and China will allow interference of their vital commerce in international waters, both have substantial and effective submarine fleets capable of causing significant damage.

Some speculate that taking of Venezuela oil was a first step in preparation for a wide-ranging middle east war that will replace oil from that region. A wide-ranging middle east war will likely spread to a world war, with Russia and China realizing there is no plan for co-existence, only submission. It could be expected that every power in the middle east would quickly need to take sides and be involved, It would be a very unpredictable gamble as to where they would ally. 

It appears that he next few weeks may be a time of decision. Only a backdown by someone can now stop the rush to war. A backdown that is impossible for some and will have severe consequences for others.

The Epstein affair, reinforcing belief in deep state.

 BANKS TOO BIG TO FAIL, ELITE TOO BIG TO BE EXPOSED

The message is clear, there is a two tier system, where the elite movers and shakers are beyond the same rules as the average peasant.  I suppose that is one reason why all these important people flocked to the likes of Jeffery Epstein, so that they could qualify for this insulated status and set them on the road to prosperity and success. Lets face it, these people who willfully entangled themselves with Epstein are not victims, they are collaborators.

How Epstein amassed this power, or who he represented, may never be revealed, but it is clear that the "conspiracy theory" of a deep state has been clearly been revealed to be true.  

It explains why every president, regardless of party, adopts the same foreign policy of death destruction and chaos voiced by Epstein in some emails. Trump has been the only presidential candidate that voiced the policy of changing that direction, yet we witness daily the pressure and attempts to insure he does not stray from policies of the past. Policies that have set the country on a path of economic and political destruction. One must suspect that either he has been compromised or he will be eliminated if he doesn't produce the results envisioned by those who really run this country. I suspect that many of these coconspirators with Epstein are still active and powerfully moving their agenda. 

Some still have hope, that all this is still slowly being revealed and ultimately it will all come to light. Some still believe that a change of political parties in power will set the country on the road to renewal. Both parties, ultimately are controlled by those same people or organizations.   It seems they play a tag team with domestic policy, but in big issues they all are identical.

Nothing will change until this power structure is destroyed and leaders truly represent the citizens, rather than powers in high places.