Day 45, Blockade the strait? More desperation.

 FAKE NEGOTIATIONS END QUICKLY

CAN U.S. AFFORD ESCALATION?

As we enter the 7th week of this Iranian, Israeli and U.S. war, we are now offered another desperate attempt to bring down Iran, a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, something that last week was a priority to open. The latest talks at least neutralized Trump's ultimatums and threats to end the Iranian civilisation, a dramatic dog and pony show that Iran agreed to participate in, fully knowing that it was all about Trump saving face. One can imagine that Iran felt it worth the effort to portray themselves as the responsible actors and the U.S. as floundering around and without any solutions. 

Closing the strait will bring about another outcry from the world's oil importing countries, who probably are willing to pay Iran the fee for an open strait, will they now have to pay the U.S. to end the blockade? We can expect that this latest strategy will end quickly, if it even happens at all.

Russia and China will not easily allow Iran to be overthrown, as its position is essential for their long term economic stability.

The Gulf countries that hitched their wagon to the U.S. and accommodated Israel in an effort to stabilize the region, must now be in a dilemma as to how to preserve their economic future. One must expect that they will soon realize that their oil assets are also going to be a target of their devious partners. Will they soon look to Iran or China as a new partner? Can they find a way for an amicable divorce from their present partners? Do their populations hold the same view as the leadership?

Listening to Netanyahu recently giving a speech to the domestic audience, he portrayed Israel as number 1 in cyber technology, this may be true. He went on to proclaim that Israel was going to be a world power, a delusion at best. Without its partnership with the U.S. it would most likely, not even be a regional power. It has also hitched its wagon to the U.S. and has grown in influence, due to this arrangement, an arrangement that has contributed to the U.S. amassing huge debt and a dropping global public opinion for both.  While Israel has a formidable air force, due to U.S. weapons, and a substantial defense for the same reason, their ground operation has yet to end Hamas and Hezbollah is inflicting serious damage to them in Lebanon. They resort to more genocidal attacks on civilians in their frustration.

The increase in inflammatory rhetoric with Turkey, indicates they are in the process of setting the stage for war with Turkey, a NATO member. They are causing unrest in Cyprus, part of which is under control of Turkey. Some in Israel believe they are as big threat to Israel as Iran.

The Israeli army is stretched to the breaking point and one would expect that, if there would not be a ban on Israli's exiting the country, a new exodus would be underway. I expect the population has decreased in the last 3 years.

No matter how advanced ones technology, a population of 8 million can never be a world power. An expansion of territory into Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Egypt will not cause a mass increase in Jewish immigrants into the nation. 

While the supply of precision guided ordnance and interceptors are a limiting factor in this war, the risk of a economic crisis is rising as oil prices begin a chain reaction of losses, defaults and derivative implosions that may be more effective in limiting the ability for war. Those dependent on others will be the most vulnerable.

Day 42, Ceasefire, Dramatic ploy to escape ultimatums?

 ARE TALKS TODAY JUST SHOWMANSHIP?

U.S. CONTINUES TO LOSE CREDIBILITY

One can not help but speculate that this whole ceasefire and agreeing to negotiate Iran's 10 point plan is nothing more than a dramatic ploy to escape the consequences of Trump's series of ultimatums that Iran essentially ignored. In fact, when Trump issued his most dramatic ultimatum of the "End of Civilization" Iran ended any communications with Pakistan. They just prepared for the worst, which would have escalated into an economic disaster for the world. Then came the last minute acceptance of Iran's proposal, which is now claimed to not be the terms that they agreed to. Today, we can expect that talks will go nowhere and hostilities will resume at any time or when a plan B or C is organized.

Last weekend's dramatic rescue of the missing Colonel now appears to be much more, with all the hardware and other unexplained details many now believe this was an attempt for a covert mission on the nuclear material in Isfahan, that was aborted with the shooting down of the F15. This would explain the frustration coming out of the white house. 

Israel's attacks in Lebanon, which Pakistan and others admit where part of the ceasefire, just enhances the appearance that Israel is not under the control of the U.S. Some believe it is the reverse that the U.S. is under the control of Israel, but this may again just make it possible to blame Israel when things go bad.

While everyone is focused on the hostilities between the U.S., Iran and Israel, it does not address the root of all this continuing violence in the region. Without a resolution of what will become of the residents of Palestine, this conflict will never end. Israel's plan to just either force them out or kill them is not a realistic option. At present, it is not likely that this will end without an intervention by the major powers both regional and global. 

Leaders of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the U.S., Russia and China should gather and negotiate a plan that may need to change borders significantly, compensate any who are displaced on by both sides and possibly build a wall between them. A limit on arms to both sides and intervention by this coalition to enforce peaceful compliance.  The state of Israel was created by international decision, now maybe it is time to fix the problem that they created.

Day 41, Ceasefire on life support.

ISRAEL KILLS 254 CIVILIANS IN BEIRUT

UAE AND KUWAIT ATTACK IRAN

The ceasefire has lasted less than one day, while it appears Iran and the U.S. attempted to honor the commitment, other actors in the region believed it was a time for military advantage. The UAE and Kuwait attacked an island in Iranian territory and Iran responded in kind. Israel launched a new campaign called, "Eternal Darkness",  by bombing apartment buildings in Beirut killing 254 and injuring 1165 civilians. This prompted Iran to again close traffic through the Hormuz strait.

The New York times has released an article concerning the meeting in the White House where Netanyahu did a video presentation on the benefits of going to war with Iran. The U.S. CIA director labeled the plan farcical and Marco Rubio labeled it as Bull shit. It was opposed by J.D.Vance and the military. It appears someone on the inside thought it important to leak this meeting, supposed to have happened on Feb., 11, 2026. 

While it seems there is some confusion about the 10 point plan that both Iran and Trump consider as a basis for negotiation. Below is what it supposedly contains.

1. Non-aggression treaty for the future.

2. Iran will retain control of Strait.

3. Iran can enrich for commercial purposes.

4. Lifting of Primary sanctions.

5. Lifting of secondary sanctions.

6. Termination of UN security council resolutions condemning Iran.

7. Termination of IAEA resolutions against Iran.

8. Payment of compensation to Iran.

9. Withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region.

10. Cessation of war on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

Of course it is a framework for negotiations and a permanent treaty would be insured by other actors. Much of this could have been negotiated without war.

While many will find it objectionable, there will not be peace in the region without 

sincere efforts to deal with the Palestinian issue, Over 72,000 have died in Gaza and over 1000 in the west bank as violence against the unarmed residents of those areas continues. It is time that the major countries of the world get together and come up with a resolution of this matter and enforce its implementation. Obviously it is clear that those parties will never come to a resolution, short of complete annihilation of their opponents. It is time for a comprehensive peace agreement for the region and this may be the optimine time.

 

Day 40, Ceasefire, Prepare for phase 3.

 PAUSE IN HOSTILITIES IS NOT PEACE

LITTLE CHANCE WAR IS OVER

Last night a ceasefire was announced, it seems that Iran and U.S. and even Israel agreed to stop hostilities in Iran and the gulf. This is supposed to last for 2 weeks and includes free passage through the strait of Hormuz. Free, means free flow but may not mean without tolls.

One must assume that Iran understands that every ceasefire with Israel in history has not lasted very long, over 700 Palestinians have died since the last ceasefire in Gaza. Ceasefires with the U.S. are likely not that permanent as illustrated by Minx one and two with Russia that were just pauses to allow Ukraine to rearm. We can only assume that this ceasefire was about desperation of high gas prices with political implications and Israel needing a break and a restocking of missile defenses.

What Iran's strategy is will remain to be seen. Maybe they can restock and reorganize while the U.S. and Israel do the same. It is unlikely that the U.S. and Israel will allow Iran to remain standing in the long run, unless they are physically unable to destroy them. This ceasefire is just buying time to come up with a new plan, even possibly amassing a large ground force, which could take several months. 

China, the real object of this war, understands this as does Russia, we can only assume they have their own cards to play during this ceasefire. 

The big elephant that no one is talking about is the massive U.S. debt, massive deficits for the foreseeable future, the proposed cutting of social programs to enhance the military budget by another 50%, the growing resistance of buyers of U.S. debt and then of course domestic political opposition to endless war. Sooner or later the domestic political and economic situation will eventually be the only restraint on endless foreign wars.

Day 39, Goal may be control of Iran's oil.

 NO PEACE, ALL ABOUT OIL

DESTRUCTION OF GULF, NOT A PROBLEM

We hear all the attempts to describe the strategy in this continuing war and they are all secondary to the real goal, control of Iran's oil. Yes, it would be nice if Iran would just surrender and hand over the control of the oil, similar to what happened to Venezuela, but if it become necessary to destroy Iran and the gulf countries, that will only open up more opportunities. It has to be considered, that this is the plan all along. 

In fact, it is becoming obvious that the second Trump administration has been focused on retaining U.S. hegemony by controlling the global oil resources. We saw the set up begin by the increase in military spending, the withdrawal of material support from Ukraine, that was needed for the middle east campaign. The capture of Venezuelan oil and then the build up for the war on Iran. So far, internal revolution aided by the CIA and Mossad has not worked, destruction to bring about surrender has not worked, so it will most likely be total destruction of the ability for Iran to function. This will support Israel's goal and then allow the U.S. to take control of Iranian oil as a first step to the control of all Gulf oil.

The colleterial damage to the Gulf countries will make taking control of that oil much more easy and the destruction can be blamed on Iran. 

One must suspect that Trump understands that his domestic agenda is coming to an end, he is now free to focus on satisfying the Neo-colonialists and Neocons in attempting to diminish BRICS and hinder the economic prosperity of China and other Asian countries. Opposition at home can rant and rave, but the war will go on. Israel will be on board as it expands into Lebanon, the west bank and Syria.

Of course, that all depends on all this working out, eventually it will create a global economic crisis and can Israel endure the attacks from Iran. While U.S. prosperity will decline, it may still be better off than the rest of the world, making the U.S. still the best performing, as compared to the rest. Even the destruction of Israel will be just so much collateral damage in exchange for the ability to control global oil supplies and hence retain the dominate U.S. position in the world.

Day 38, Iranian air defenses alive and well?

 DANGEROUS ESCALATION IMMINENT

GLOBAL DEPRESSION MAY BE RESULT

While we have been told that the U.S. enjoys air supremacy over Iran, this weekend indicated that there are likely functional air defenses in Iran.  Most analysts have been indicating that the massive damage inflicted on Iran has been by the use of tomahawk missiles fired by ships and air to ground cruise missiles and guided bombs deployed outside of Iranian air space. Navy ships are near 1000 miles from Iranian airspace and even helicopters used in the rescue this weekend needed to be refueled in the air. 

In now appears that Iran has refrained in using their air defenses against those cruise missiles during previous attacks.  The reason being that once those air defenses are turned on they can immediately be targeted by other cruise missiles. It is indicated that Iran has chosen to absorb all that damage without response, saving their air defenses for the anticipated ground operations. 

Friday, a F15 and a A10 plane were shot down over Iran, they were very likely part of a process of preparing for ground operations, were they were forced to fly at low altitude surveying the topography. Eventually both pilots were rescued, but it brought about the loss of a C130 refueling plane and 2 helicopteres and the damage to 2 other helicopters. This was in a region devoid of actual Iranian military, but had civilian militia groups. This incident may very well now requires a rethinking of the plan for ground operations, which will require close air support from A10's and helicopters.

Last night we heard a vulgar statement from the president that will not have any serious impact on Iran, but indicates desperation concerning the next phase of this war.

The president has issued ultimatums of 48 hours, 5 days, 10 days and now the deadline is tomorrow to open the strait of Hormuz. The strait is open, if the passage is approved by Iran. This weekend, ships from France and Japan have passed and others even though the traffic has only been around 20 ships per day. 

The president has openly threatened to bomb civilian infrastructure of bridges, energy etc., considered a war crime. Iran has threatened to respond by doing likewise in the gulf region. An attack on the energy producing infrastructure of the gulf will result in a likely global depression within weeks. 

Iran, both the leadership and the population, understand that their sovereignty and survival as a nation is at risk, they are very unlikely to surrender to the U.S. and Israel. To defeat them may take a global economic depression, starvation in some parts of the world and years rather than months.

Israel is learning in Lebanon what Russia and Ukraine have learned very well, that due to FPV drones and shoulder fired weapons, close air support and tanks are becoming less effective. It has been reported that Israel has lost near 100 tanks in Lebanon. Ukraine does not have any air force to talk about and Russia with a large air force still does not fly over Ukrainian airspace.

Aircraft carriers which need to stay 1000 miles from their objective are not as effective as they used to be. The military world is changing by the day, and learning about it it is very costly.

One has to wonder if the military leadership is not telling this administration what it would like to hear, resulting in numerous firings and resignations. Maybe the president should have listened to these voices rather than Netanyahu and Mossad before he pulled the trigger on this disaster.

Day 35, U.S, targets civilian infrastructure.

 BRIDGES, VACCINE LAB, ELECTRIC 

IRAN STRIKES AMAZON AND ORACLE DATA CENTERS

Yesterday the U.S. began its program of destroying Iranian infrastructure, bridges, a Vaccine manufacturing plant, a pharmaceutical manufacturing plant and electric generation. Iran retaliated by attacking U.S. technology centers of Amazon and Oracle. It can be expected that they will soon attack Gulf countries oil and gas production facilities and desalination plants. It is likely that in the next few weeks the region will be in effect, disabled.  

While Trump predicts the war will go on for 2 or 3 weeks, that may be a very difficult prediciation. It is assuming that when the U.S. decides to stop, Iran will also stop. Can the U.S. go home if Iran continues to attack Israel and the gulf countries? We hear the bragging and europhia of a policy of death and destruction from the administration, but the bleeding is continuing, no only in Iran but for the entire region and the United States, who does not have the manufacturing ability to quickly replace what has gone up in smoke. It can be expected that a lot more will go up in smoke in the next few weeks.

The administration is now calling for a defense budget of $1.5 trillion and possible cuts to social programs to help pay for it. It is a suicide pact for the republican party. 

One can expect this war is going to hasten the move to an alternative global economic system and it may soon evolve into a alternative military alliance due to the narrative of violence coming out of Washington. International law observers have stated that if the present leadership of Trump, Hegseth, along with Lindsey Graham would be held to the same standards of the Nuremberg trials, they would be convicted by their own rhetoric and actions. One must wonder if a seperate international body will emerge with Washington and Israel on one side and the rest of the world on the other.

While this conflict is still ongoing, there are reports of supplies being accumulated in Greece and Cypress for a possible confrontation with Turkey. The new Iran according to Israeli politicians, who now consider Turkey a threat to their security.

It is very likely that hostilities in the region will continue into the fall and possibly even longer. It is very likely to remake the world into a very different place and not for the better.