It looks like Trump is ready to move on.

 THE MIDDLE EAST WILL NOT BE THE SAME

THERE WILL BE INCREASED FOCUS ON ISRAEL

There are now leaked reports on the upcoming Iran/U.S. deal. It also appears that we may be able to be more optimistic of a successful  new era in the region. If this deal is concluded by August 19, as is planned, it will in effect, normalize relations between the U.S. and Iran and also between the other Persian Gulf countries. At this point we can only be hopeful.

The reality is that the U.S. understood that the oil reserves all around the world were almost depleted. Iran understood that this may be the best opportunity for normalized relations since 1979. There are huge incentives for both sides to make this happen. If this is signed and 1/2 Iran's frozen assets are released at that time it will indicate that the U.S. is serious. All the other nations in the gulf need this to happen, there are plenty of incentives for all.

Of course, the sticking point is still Israel. We should expect that there there will be pressure for Hezbollah to commit to a ceasefire and pressure for Israel to withdraw from Lebanon. While this will be unpopular with the leadership in Israel, if the deal is moving forward with Iran in a respectful manner by both sides, they will be under enormous world pressure to end the fighting in Lebanon. All a first step for a better outcome for everyone in the region, including Israel. It can be expected that any escalation or other attempts to sabotage this deal by Israel will be closely monitored, and if Iran can gain confidence, they may be able to be convinced to not respond militarily.

Of course, if this deal if consummated, it is not the end, but only the beginning for a comprehensive agreement for whole region. 

Trump's right decision, Israel pledges war to go on.

 IF REAL, TRUMP HAS BIT THE BULLET

BEST DECSION FOR THE U.S. AND WORLD

While at present Trump is declaring victory, in the long run it could be the most pivotal decision of  his presidency.  Staying the course in Iran was a loser for the global economy and while few want to acknowledge it, when it all fell apart, Iran would be least of their troubles.  If Trump makes this happen, he will find that there is a time for humility and a new lesson in his life. He has shown he has the ability to change course.

The present deal may be a lesser deal than the one he was persuaded to scrap by Netanyahu several years ago. If he can gain the trust of Iran, he may be able to actually make a long term difference in the region. Actually, a better deal was near completed in Geneva before the February attack. 

The former deal by Obama and now this move to diplomacy has actually brought Iran into  a closer alignment with the world community. Iran has shown patience, and mostly engaged in retaliation, the escalation was consistently on the part of the U.S. and Israel. Iran has shown restraint and the ability engage in effective diplomacy. The reality that Iran had the capability to destroy the oil infrastructure of the region and throw the world into a economic crisis, but did not, has shown the world that Iran is not necessarily a ideological extremist. 

I suspect that all the Muslim nations in the region are ready to make some sort of peace with Iran, I suspect that Iran is also ready for a new effort for peace in the region. The citizens of Israel should take a hard look at where their future was headed and consider some other options in their policies. While their leaders claim they are winning, they have lost a lot in the last 3years. It is not too late.

The present narrative out of Israel is that will continue in their war with Iran, that they will engage in covert actions and internal subversion to overthrow the government of Iran. I hope they decide that approach is not in their best interest. 

This can be an opportunity, but a rational and humanitarian solution for the Palestinian question is fundamental to solving the long term future of the region.

Day 107, Deal completed? Signing now June 19?

 NETANYAHOU SAYS ISRAEL NOT PART OF DEAL

ISRAEL ATTACKS LEBANON, STRAIT STILL NOT OPEN

Both sides seem to indicate that they have agreed to the framework for an end to hostilities in the region. Most do not believe it will actually be the end of this conflict, just a pause until after the November elections and a period of normalized oil supplies.

Netanyahu refuses to exit Lebanon or cease hostilities with Lebanon. Yesterday Trump convinced Iran not to retaliate against Israel for its renewed attacks on Lebanon. Most believe the Trump/Netanyahu rift is just theater. Iran did not retaliate for now, but there is no question that if the attacks continue they will.  Trump does have the leverage to demand compliance from Netanyahu, either by cutting off all offensive weapons to Israel or just pledge to stand back and not participate in Israel's defense if they do not comply. It would be a first for Trump and would go a long way in increasing his credibility.

Below is a summary of the major parts of this agreement, no one has yet seen the most up to date version.

1. Non-aggression treaty for the future.

2. Iran will retain control of Strait.

3. Iran can enrich for commercial purposes.

4. Lifting of Primary sanctions.

5. Lifting of secondary sanctions.

6. Termination of UN security council resolutions condemning Iran.

7. Termination of IAEA resolutions against Iran.

8. Payment of compensation to Iran.

9. Withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region.

10. Cessation of war on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

This is the rough idea of what is being considered, and if a deal is actually signed on Friday, it will begin with opening the strait by both sides, a return of 1/2 the frozen assets of Iran and negotiations to be concluded in the following 60 days. This will concern the nuclear agreement which will be similar to what was part of the original deal from 2015.

Most question the sincerity of the U.S. in all this, feeling it is more about oil prices and political convenience until after the next election. It is a real opportunity for a comprehensive security agreement for the region, if that is what they really want.

Day 104, Trump, War over? doubtful.

 MORE WAR, THEN PEACE, TESTING AMERICANS GULLIBILITY

HOW LONG CAN CREDIBILITY LAST?

Yesterday, the world was whipsawed by competing narratives coming out of the White House. More intense war, oil markets rise, then peace, oil markets fall, the same pattern that has been going on for now months. I suspect that any proclamations coming out of the White House are now considered just so much verbiage without any substance. It can be assumed that much of he world is feeling the same. This pattern is the quickest way for a President to become irrelevant.

This whole ceasefire was called for by Trump, tentatively agreeing to Iran's position, then when it came to real negotiations, it all evaporated. In reality, Iran has not changed it position and neither has the U.S.  Lets face it, Trump is hoping for Iran to capitulate and give him a clear victory. Iran, a nation that is in an existential fight for its survival, not just its government, but its nation, which has been under sanctions and assault for its entire modern existence is demonstrating that it has the social cohesion and military ability to demonstrate a lasting deterrence. This whole fiasco is weakening the U.S. and giving Iran credibility in the world community. I suspect that saying that is tantamount to treason, everyone is supposed to be on board exclaiming the virtues and power of the U.S. while in effect it is diminishing by the day.

Together  with the Ukraine/Russian war, another conflict that was expected to be over in weeks and is now in its 4th year, all in the hope of maintaining world control and control of the politics and resources of Russia and Iran, have in effect decimated the economies of Europe and soon the U.S. The debts are piling up, the internal social fabric disintegrating and the credibility of their governments evaporating. Exactly opposite of the goals that these wars were expected to enact.

It seems the leadership class is without the ability to change course, either from hubris or just unable to neutralize those with other agendas, either way, it is likely going to end with a diminished nation in all respects.

Day 103, War back on, Strait closed.

 U.S. ATTACKS IRAN, IRAN STRIKES U.S. BASES

IRAN DECLARES STRAIT CLOSED FOR EVERYONE

Dueling narratives from both sides, the U.S. claims it's strikes are defensive and Iran retaliates, more of the same, but just escalating. Trump claims the U.S. has been sneaking ships through the strait. Imagine sneaking 1000 foot long ships through a 20 mile wide waterway. We can assume the ships going through were with Iranian permission. Iran now states, no ships will be going through until escalation stops.

We can assume that this is going to be the situation for some time and the disruption of the flow of oil out of the gulf will continue. More are speculating that the U.S. actually wants the oil traffic disrupted, hoping, while it may damage Iran, it will cause economic worries for China. While it may hobble consumers in the U.S. it will damage China more and the U.S. will be less impacted than others. It may also increase dependence on U.S. energy and increase U.S. leverage. A sad way of trying to insure the U.S. remains relevant.

All this also takes the focus off of Israel's attacks on Lebanon and it seems there were no more attack by Iran on Israel.

It is amazing that oil prices have been restrained so far, when actual shortages begin that may be much harder to control.

Indications that the stock markets are possibly finally entering a new reality phase, we will see if this will cause another reevaluation of this conflict.

Chaos, instability and uncertainty seem to be outlook for the foreseeable future. 

Day 103, War some more.

 BACK TO WAR IN PERSIAN GULF?

U.S. STIKES IRAN, IRAN HITS U.S. GULF BASES

Yesterday a U.S. helicopter collided with a Iranian drone over the strait of Hormuz. Iran claims it was unintentional, while the U.S. responded with stakes into Iran.  Iran then responded with strikes on U.S. bases in the gulf. It is not clear if this is going to continue or just another strike and respond incident.

Little talk of any negotiations in progress. 

Reports claim that the U.S. staged  airborne troops in Israel for a planned attempt to capture Iran's Kharg island, it now may be another cancelled covert mission.

Most likely this tit for tat will continue for some months, until the U.S. and Israel feel they are ready for another go at Iran or until some other crisis erupts to distract.

It is doubtful that any peaceful resolution is on the immediate horizon. 

Day 102, Economic or political exhaustion, not military victory.

 WHO WILL BE FORCED TO END THIS BY NECESSITY?

THE CLOCK IS NOW TICKING QUICKLY

It is clear, there is no serious negotiation that will be acceptable to the U.S., Iran and Israel. At present, everything is sort of in limbo, but it is becoming clear that a military victory is unlikely. It is more likely that exhaustion or financial necessity will be what brings this conflict to a close.

The U.S. is the most powerful player in this affair, at least militarily. It is clear that 40 days of bombing have not eliminated Iran's ability to do damage, that is why there was a call by Trump for ceasefire in the first place. So far, the damage to the world economy due to the interference in energy supplies has been managed by expending reserves, and there is a limit to how long that can be sustained. The reality is that the flow of energy out of the Persian gulf must happen and soon.   

The calls from the hard core Neocons and Israel to finish off Iran assumes that Iran is a sitting duck and an easy kill, serious analysts understand that this is not true. Iran has made it clear that a further resumption of attacks will result in Iran taking out the Persian gulf energy production facilities for possibly years, Iran does have that capability. This will result in a global financial crisis that no one will escape. At present, Iran has not pre-emptively attacked anyone,  but they are retaliating to any attacks by the U.S. and Israel, both on Iran and Lebanon.

It seems Trump has hoped that an embargo would bring Iran to accept his demands, this is unlikely, as Iran as alternative corridors through the Caspian sea and Pakistan. It is near impossible to enforce a total blockade on Iran. The clock is ticking for Trump both economically and politically. 

Iran is geographically a fortress that will not be defeated without massive ground forces and there are not enough forces available and logistics of such an enterprise are not being entertained by anyone. Iran has been under sanctions and assault for 47 years, that is why they constructed such a massive underground defense system. The hope of an internal revolt has been much exaggerated. While there is internal disagreements, the assassinations and massive bombing has united the country as it would any nation. I suspect, that while suffering, they can outlast the U.S. and Israel. The delusion in the west that Iranians view Israel and the U.S. as benevolent saviors is just stupid.

Israel is now in the weakest position, the idea postulated by the present leadership that Israel is an emerging super power is dangerously delusional. It is completely dependent on the U.S. for its ultimate security. The U.S. is experiencing  its own problems of over extension after years of war, both it the middle east and Ukraine. Another reason for the call for a ceasefire was the shortage of precision munitions.

Israel's army is being exhausted after 3 years of continuous fighting and the idea of expansion and occupation is near impossible for a small population. There is a limit to how long Israel can continue militarily, economically and more importantly politically. The opposition at home is not for peace but for more war, how is that situation going to be reconciled?

The real solution is a comprehensive negotiation to settle all disputes, at present no can even talk directly to each other, a real solution would take years to accomplish and at present there is no will for anything like that. It will only end with the brutal reality of exhaustion and an inability to continue.