Day 38, Iranian air defenses alive and well?

 DANGEROUS ESCALATION IMMINENT

GLOBAL DEPRESSION MAY BE RESULT

While we have been told that the U.S. enjoys air supremacy over Iran, this weekend indicated that there are likely functional air defenses in Iran.  Most analysts have been indicating that the massive damage inflicted on Iran has been by the use of tomahawk missiles fired by ships and air to ground cruise missiles and guided bombs deployed outside of Iranian air space. Navy ships are near 1000 miles from Iranian airspace and even helicopters used in the rescue this weekend needed to be refueled in the air. 

In now appears that Iran has refrained in using their air defenses against those cruise missiles during previous attacks.  The reason being that once those air defenses are turned on they can immediately be targeted by other cruise missiles. It is indicated that Iran has chosen to absorb all that damage without response, saving their air defenses for the anticipated ground operations. 

Friday, a F15 and a A10 plane were shot down over Iran, they were very likely part of a process of preparing for ground operations, were they were forced to fly at low altitude surveying the topography. Eventually both pilots were rescued, but it brought about the loss of a C130 refueling plane and 2 helicopteres and the damage to 2 other helicopters. This was in a region devoid of actual Iranian military, but had civilian militia groups. This incident may very well now requires a rethinking of the plan for ground operations, which will require close air support from A10's and helicopters.

Last night we heard a vulgar statement from the president that will not have any serious impact on Iran, but indicates desperation concerning the next phase of this war.

The president has issued ultimatums of 48 hours, 5 days, 10 days and now the deadline is tomorrow to open the strait of Hormuz. The strait is open, if the passage is approved by Iran. This weekend, ships from France and Japan have passed and others even though the traffic has only been around 20 ships per day. 

The president has openly threatened to bomb civilian infrastructure of bridges, energy etc., considered a war crime. Iran has threatened to respond by doing likewise in the gulf region. An attack on the energy producing infrastructure of the gulf will result in a likely global depression within weeks. 

Iran, both the leadership and the population, understand that their sovereignty and survival as a nation is at risk, they are very unlikely to surrender to the U.S. and Israel. To defeat them may take a global economic depression, starvation in some parts of the world and years rather than months.

Israel is learning in Lebanon what Russia and Ukraine have learned very well, that due to FPV drones and shoulder fired weapons, close air support and tanks are becoming less effective. It has been reported that Israel has lost near 100 tanks in Lebanon. Ukraine does not have any air force to talk about and Russia with a large air force still does not fly over Ukrainian airspace.

Aircraft carriers which need to stay 1000 miles from their objective are not as effective as they used to be. The military world is changing by the day, and learning about it it is very costly.

One has to wonder if the military leadership is not telling this administration what it would like to hear, resulting in numerous firings and resignations. Maybe the president should have listened to these voices rather than Netanyahu and Mossad before he pulled the trigger on this disaster.

Day 35, U.S, targets civilian infrastructure.

 BRIDGES, VACCINE LAB, ELECTRIC 

IRAN STRIKES AMAZON AND ORACLE DATA CENTERS

Yesterday the U.S. began its program of destroying Iranian infrastructure, bridges, a Vaccine manufacturing plant, a pharmaceutical manufacturing plant and electric generation. Iran retaliated by attacking U.S. technology centers of Amazon and Oracle. It can be expected that they will soon attack Gulf countries oil and gas production facilities and desalination plants. It is likely that in the next few weeks the region will be in effect, disabled.  

While Trump predicts the war will go on for 2 or 3 weeks, that may be a very difficult prediciation. It is assuming that when the U.S. decides to stop, Iran will also stop. Can the U.S. go home if Iran continues to attack Israel and the gulf countries? We hear the bragging and europhia of a policy of death and destruction from the administration, but the bleeding is continuing, no only in Iran but for the entire region and the United States, who does not have the manufacturing ability to quickly replace what has gone up in smoke. It can be expected that a lot more will go up in smoke in the next few weeks.

The administration is now calling for a defense budget of $1.5 trillion and possible cuts to social programs to help pay for it. It is a suicide pact for the republican party. 

One can expect this war is going to hasten the move to an alternative global economic system and it may soon evolve into a alternative military alliance due to the narrative of violence coming out of Washington. International law observers have stated that if the present leadership of Trump, Hegseth, along with Lindsey Graham would be held to the same standards of the Nuremberg trials, they would be convicted by their own rhetoric and actions. One must wonder if a seperate international body will emerge with Washington and Israel on one side and the rest of the world on the other.

While this conflict is still ongoing, there are reports of supplies being accumulated in Greece and Cypress for a possible confrontation with Turkey. The new Iran according to Israeli politicians, who now consider Turkey a threat to their security.

It is very likely that hostilities in the region will continue into the fall and possibly even longer. It is very likely to remake the world into a very different place and not for the better.

Day 34, It makes sense, Gulf destruction.

 ESCALATION AND DESTRUCTION OF GULF COUNTRIES 

TRUMP ADOPTS ISRAEL'S GOALS

Many anticipated that Trump was about to declare victory and end the Iran war. While declaring victory and repeating the litany of talking points about the justification for this war, no end is in sight. He engaged in the endless demonization of everything Iran, most either fabrications or exaggerations. He finally got to the point that was relevant, the U.S. will escalate the attacks in an effort to make Iran as desolate and uninhabitable as possible and then hope to focus on some other pressing issues in the next few weeks. 

We can assume that in the next few weeks the U.S. is going to attempt to destroy the energy, water and other infrastructure of Iran and Iran will respond by destroying the same in the Gulf region. This is predictable, not a maybe, unless the gulf countries finally understand that they are also an indirect target of U.S. destruction. Are they going to stand by, and allow this to happen? or decide that their own survival is more important than a 40 year dream of Netanyahu and the vision of  U.S. colonialism and world domination. 

Without desalination plants the gulf countries will need to depopulate within weeks, of course, the U.S. could then step in and take control of the existing infrastructure, the U.S. could be the saviour and Iran the villain. Of course, this is all speculation, but we will see what happens, either Trump is a maniac or an evil genius.

In the meantime the war will go on, oil prices have surged overnight and the effects on the world economy are increasing by the day. 

Israel is now fighting a 4 front war, they are taking significant loses of men and equipment in Lebanon, Iraqi militias are upping their attacks, the Houthis are slowly increasing their missile attacks and it is being reported that Iranian missiles are having increasing success evading defenses. It is still Israel that will probably be the first to seek an end, but can that be done, will be the question.

We can expect Israel will then threaten a nuclear option, as in the past, but it seems this conflict is no longer under the control of anyone.

Day 33, NATO says no to war.

 IRAN DID NOT ATTACK UNITED STATES

MULTIPLE INTERNATIONAL LAW VIOLATIONS 

In the last few days NATO members France, Italy and Spain have not only refused the use of their air bases but also their airspace for any transportation concerning the Iran war. While there are complaints from Trump, Rubio and promises of retaliation from Israel, these nations find a conflict in supporting this war. One, this war does not fall into the legal framework for NATO, no NATO member has been attacked and the attack on Iran is considered an unlawful war of aggression by international law. While the United States has openly declared that they are no longer adhering to international law, the EU nations are not yet willing to go there.

Besides the attack itself, the targeting of schools, hospitals and vital civilian infrastructure is also in opposition to international law.

Pete Hegseth, whose disgusting rhetoric in advocating death and destruction, is now being labeled the Secretary of War crimes.

Poland has refused to give up its patriot missiles to be shipped to Israel.

The European nations have been under economic assault since the Ukraine/Russian conflict due to limited energy, due to their refusal to buy Russian energy. This is all complicated by this war, a war of choice by the United States and Israel.

By not cooperating in this war effort, they will most likely be able to arrange the passage of energy products through the strait of Hormuz. 

Sunni Muslim Chechnya has announced that it is ready to give military assistance to Iran. While a small nation, it does have a sophisticated battle hardened military. This announcement may have implications with other Sunni Muslims who may very well be influenced by a growing empathy for Iran from the Muslim world.

While many believe this war will damage China and southeast Asia, it may be temporary, as China and Russia are in the process of building pipelines to move energy to Asia and the Arctic route will be open for tanker traffic. This energy may in time become available to Japan, Australia and South Korea.

Trump has voiced his opinion that he may leave this war with the strait closed, but the strait is not closed, it is controlled by Iran, while few ships are moving, it is increasing, as deals are made with those willing to accept this control.

Trump cannot end this war until both Israel and Iran are willing to end this war. It is unlikely that will happen in the near future.

Day 32, Is real objective, Gulf chaos and controlling the oil?

 WILL ISRAEL RUN OUT OF DEFENSE BEFORE IRAN RUNS OUT OF OFFENSE?

WILL ALL OF THE REGION END UP DESTROYED?

We are told that the objectives of this premeditated conflict is to deny Iran the ability of obtaining nuclear weapons. Israel adds that they should not be allowed to possess any weapons that could threaten their security. These are the stated objectives for this conflict, that is having global implications, that are going to be long lasting.

Israel wants Iran to be made a failed state, permanently, that is obvious, they are not concerned about global economics, the possible death of 100's of thousands, it is all about regional military supremacy.  They continue to strike targets that will insure that this war goes on and escalates, until Iran is virtually destroyed. They are supported in the U.S. by big donors and a dedicated mass of Christian Zionists, who believe this war must continue at all cost.

Iran understands this very well, and they will now continue until unable to physically resist. They have understood this for years, and have planned accordingly. 

The United States is the muscle that has the ability to make Netanyahu's 40 year dream come true. Israel will do all that they can to keep this destruction going until their dream is fulfilled.

Many seem to believe that the U.S. has been trapped into this war by the Israel lobby, but there are others who also advocate for this war, probably who have very little interest in the survival of Israel, but see this conflict as the means to recapture the U.S. status of global power. If the U.S. can gain control of the entirety of Gulf oil it can use this oil as a political weapons against the entirety of southeast Asia. 

If this war continues for an extended time, the Gulf states are going to be devastated, economically and eventually politically. If Iran can be neutralized and its oil taken under control as in Iraq, libya and Venezuela and in the process the gulf states dismantled, the U.S. can easily obtain control of their assets. This would place the U.S. in a position to control the majority of the oil in the world and insure its dominance for decades into the future. When entertaining this view one sees more sense to this whole affair. 

While all these plans may have high hopes, in war there are often unseen consequences. The first and most important is, will Israel run out of the ability to defend itself before Iran runs out of missles? This is a matter of the often talked about weeks, not months. Most observers agree that Israel, if on the verge of collapse, will resort to Nuclear weapons. At the same time there is also speculation that on the day after  Khomeini died, Iran began finishing the process to manufacture nuclear weapons. This week their parliament is debating exiting the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, which they are a signature. If they do formally exit, it will likely be an indication that they have already manufactured the weapons. There is no question that they have the ability to deliver these weapons.

While many talk of Armageddon, this may be as close as the world has come, so far. While many believe that a nuclear exchange will encompass the whole world, and it would have consequences, it would indeed be Armageddon for the region. After all, the prophecies about this were always about Israel being the center of all this, the center of the world, when written. 

Day 31, Phantom talks, ground troops, no end in sight.

 WAR EXPANDS, ESCALATION TRAP CLOSING

HUNKERING DOWN FOR THE LONG HAUL

While we hear reports of negotiations, there is really no serious negotiations underway, only messaging between third parties. This is likely just a tactic to keep oil prices down and preserve stock market levels. It is now anticipated that ground troops are on the near horizon. It could be expected that as many as 70,000 U.S. troops and contributions from Saudi Arabia and Israel will attempt to open the strait of Hormuz. It may very well result in the complete closing of the strait and may require more troops in the future.

The attacks on Iran continue and we may see retaliation to attacks on the oil producing facilities of the Gulf countries, this will extend the growing oil crisis.

Iran understands very well how any attack on the ground can be attempted, there are only a few options. It can be expected that they welcome this opportunity to inflict casualties on the U.S. It is likely they will allow a certain beachhead and then begin a guerilla type war of attrition. This may be just the beginning of a long escalating conflict.

Israel is in a serious conflict in Lebanon, now near a month, and Netanyahu has vowed to double down. It is reported that they have lost dozens of tanks due to drones and anti-tank weapons and Hezbollah is also expecting to now hunker down for a guerilla type conflict. One can expect that Lebanon will soon look like Gaza.

This weekend the Houthis also announced they are entering the war and may very well close off the Red sea. This will disable oil flowing out of Saudi Arabia through the Red sea.

It appears that this conflict will not be over in weeks.

The Gulf countries are all ruled by authoritarian regimes, with populations having diverse loyalties, an extended war in the region may soon ignite internal conflicts that could very well be infectious and no one can predict that outcome. 

Once ground troops are introduced it is very likely just the beginning of this war.

Day 28, Multiple conflicting and cooperative objectives.

 FICTITIOUS PEACE TALKS TO CALM MARKETS?

HOW LONG CAN ISRAEL CONTINUE?

It is now 4 weeks of war with Iran, it does not appear that the end is anywhere in the immediate future nor is there a concrete indication as to the outcome. According to the U.S. the war has been won and peace talks are underway. Iran denies either of those assertions and continues to control the traffic through the strait of Hormuz. Israel is not making any public statements, but is fighting in Lebanon and continues to attack Iran, while absorbing damage every day. It appears this war may continue for a long time and it may very well be one of those situations with periods of peace and then renewed conflict stretching for years.

Both Israel and the U.S. want regime change in Iran, Israel wants an end to the ability of Iran to pose a threat to Israel. Iran would like an end to Israel's' ability to threaten them. While Iran has sustained very serious damage they seem to have the ability to withstand a lot of punishment, Israel, on the other hand is small and it will soon become evident that they are losing the ability to defend themselves from missile attacks. This, coupled with a frozen economy and signs that the IDF is encountering internal strains from continuous war, may be the first to need to end this conflict.

Israel's long term objective is greater Israel and becoming the dominant power in the region. The U.S. desires to control the oil resources of the region, this war with Iran has in effect been going on since 1979 when Iran nationalized it oil resources. This creates a cooperating objective between Israel and the U.S. If the U.S. can obtain control over Iran's oil it will be a powerful lever over eastern Asia. If it can gain control of all the Gulf oil it may be the key to keeping its dominate position globally. Control of Mideast oil would be a severe blow to the BRICS economic union that threatens to become the dominate global economic power in the future. This is the ultimate goal of the neo con faction in the U.S., Global hegemony.

Of course, Iran desires to maintain its Sovereignty and control its own economic future.  

While, so far, this war is limited to the U.S. Israel and Iran there are massive other interests at work. It can be expected that they will assert those interests if this war shows signs of going against their interests.

While no one is talking about this, the U.S. is limited by its ability to replace all this ordinance and economic realities at home. Israel can not take this punishment for an indefinite time. If Iran can survive as an Sovereign state, it will be a win, at least for now.