Is Trump ready to bet the house on Iran?

 TRUMP'S LAST CHANCE IS SLIPPING AWAY

BIBI LEFT SMILING, A BAD SIGN 

 

It appears as though Trump has made his decision, only a few more days for us to know for sure, but it appears we may be in for escalation in Iran and a determination to destroy the Iranian nation.  We do have that ability, but at what cost to the US and world economy. The 30 year is now at 5.24% and the 10 year 4.76% a disaster for servicing the exploding national debt. This is just an indication of where we are going, a prolonged war and even possible ground troops, will make these numbers look moderate.

 

One has to wonder if Iran's attack yesterday was a premeditated effort to suck Trump into a prolonged war, possibly a far bigger weapon in the long run than even the strait of Hormuz. I suspect that this attack was intentionally timed to coincide with Bibi's visit to Washington. It seems to have provoked the desired reaction from Trump. An outrageous sneak attack on a US base!, is almost humorous, after the US and Israelis attacks on the clergy, leadership and even school girls in Iran. The hypocrisy is just so over the top.

 

While the present wars continue, it is relevant that Russia has been very restrained in their approach to Ukraine, at least until the recent escalation, that it is still very controlled and strategic. The same has been the policy of Iran, only responding to escalation from the US,  this last attack on our Jordanian bases is the first exception to that policy. It was almost a cry for the US to not stop, please continue the war. 

 

We can assume that the adversaries of the US, have a clear objective view of the power of the US. and have determined that the best policy is not disrupt their rush to decline by expending their wealth and energy until it is no longer able to sustain the costs, both economically and militarily.  So far, due to hubris of US leadership, they are cooperating according to plan.

 

One other observation that causes interest is the continual accusations against Russian targeting information to Iran. Most assume this information is coming from China, which is experimenting with many of their untested electronics in Iran.  Of course, the US knows this, but seems to want to blame Russia rather than China, not clear why this is the present policy.  

 

Some are predicting a mass casualty event to US forces that will hopefully encourage an escalation of the war. We can assume Israel still wants escalation, hoping the US will knock off this domino of prospective threats on their delusional dream of world power status. The possible result may very well be the diminishing of what is left of US power and credibility, and the end of their only hope for survival.

 

 

 

 

Bibi wants escalation, not victory declaration.

 MILITARY DIVIDED ON IRAN WAR

WILL TRUMP SACRIFICE MIDTERMS FOR ISRAEL?

 

The logical strategy would be to declare victory and go home, but we will soon know if logic or Netanyahu will prevail in regards to the Iran war. Word is that Netanyahu and his backers lobbied hard for a renewed intensified conflict in the hope to destroy Iran for good. We can expect to see within days which way Trump will go.

 

It appears the U.S. military is divided, with some concerned that the dwindling supply of precision weapons and defensive missiles may put the U.S. service members in increased risk. 

 

So far, this war has been under the control of Trump, concerning  when it starts and when it stops. One has to wonder if the US is lulled into the belief that it can continue to do that. Last night may be a preview from Iran as they attacked the US bases in Jordon without it being a retaliation to US attacks. 

 

Any escalated attack on Iran that requires US planes to overfly Iran will result in lost planes and pilots, a very politically negative result for the president. This week may be the pivotal time for the direction of not only this war, but for the future of the Trump presidency and the US standing in the world. All objective analysis believes that escalation is a long shot gamble at best. Netanyahu may be desperate, and after a further escalation, so will Trump.

 

 

 

Bibi is really coming this time.

 WILL IT BE ESCALATION OR DECLARATION OF VICTORY?

OR JUST A PAUSE UNTIL AFTER THE ELECTIONS?

 

Netanyahu is really coming to Washington today, I had mistakenly reported a few weeks ago that he was coming, but his time it is for real. In previous visits, this will be the eight this year, it seems to be always about war, particularly with Iran, this time may be different. Trump may actually be forcing Netanyahu to praise the Trump efforts and possibly publicly allow Trump to declare victory. Trump may need that endorsement to allow him to focus on the midterms, then no matter how the midterms go, it will be back to war.

 

Netanyahu is also invited to the funeral of blood brother in death and destruction, Lindsey Graham. I am sure his support will be sorely missed. 

 

It may be a perfect time for pause in the war, no deal, no formal settlement, just a pause until the U.S. and Israel can restock munitions and hope to fight another time after the elections.  One has to wonder if Iran will be accommodating, it seems they have again stopped attacks, after the U.S. stopped attacks. They may very well hope that, after the midterms, the U.S. will have other distractions to keep them from resuming the war.

 

Zelensky is also coming, a real meeting of the blood brothers and also a big fan of Lindsey Graham. Graham and his buddy John McCain had been proponents of war with Russia for decades, now they are both gone, before they could witness their dream. 

 

Who knows what will be discussed and planned in private, but it could be that this meeting will all be about victory and praise for Trump. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Is everyone near exhaustion?

 CITIZENS MAY TIRE OF WAR BEFORE LEADERS

MAYBE ITS TIME TO JUST STOP 

 

While we hear of possible escalation and now a growing possibility that Iran may actually go on the offensive, I for one, am tired of watching continuous war both in Ukraine and in the middle east. Both wars were never necessary, but here we are anyway.  Yet it seems we are destined to continue until the last missile or last fake dollar, to keep it all going. 

 

Off ramps were available both before the Ukraine war even started and then in Istanbul and then for Iran in Geneva in February for avoiding these wars, but leaders and their backers thought that more war was a good idea.  We have to win and someone has to lose. I suspect that there will not be any winners, they are all going to be losers. Particularly all those who are being effected by this lust for war and power.

 

It now appears that there will not be any negotiated settlement with Russia or Iran, both have been taught well that negotiations with the United States are just a ploy to gain advantage and the only course is war to the bitter end. 

 

Contrary to media narrative, Russia is moving west and accelerating even while Ukraine damages Russia's oil production, a damage that will be felt and paid for by everyone.  Russia is not going to quit and will not fold internally, Ukraine will most likely lose Odessa and Karkiv before this is over and it will probably not be over until Ukraine can no longer physically resist. 

 

As for Iran, there are indications that they may soon stop with the policy of retaliation and actually go on the offensive, the first victims will be the British creations of Kuwait and Bahrain, they were never real countries, just creations to gain access to the oil. They may soon revert back to part of Iraq and Iran.  The UAE may be awaiting the same fate. 

 

To stop a ground advance from Iran will require many thousands of western troops on the ground, that will promise to be costly to everyone, it may be too late to stop an escalation that could have avoided all this with some real diplomacy.  

 

The next five months of 2026, will most likely witness the results of many years of planned war, I suspect it will cost the globe dearly. The 30 minute meeting between Rubio and Lavrov is an indication that all talking is now over, the high hopes of Trump negotiating peace is over and will not even be entertained.  All our adversaries have been taught well that there really is no real negotiation, only a tactic to gain advantage. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Escalation frustration, Casino mentality.

 WILL DOUBLING THE BOMBS MAKE A DIFFERENCE?

ANOTHER ROLL OF THE DICE?

 

As we watch the modern day Shakespearean tragedy of the Trump presidency one has to wonder how far this will go before someone decides this is a losing battle and a new approach is necessary. A bigger hammer is not always a better idea, but it is often how much more damage is done until a real solution is found. We can only watch in awe as Trump is consumed by his own hubris and fear of admitting defeat. If it was only Trumps ego at stake it could be almost humorous, but the reality is the whole country and even the global economy is at risk. It seems this whole play has to come to a final conclusion, no matter how damaging.

 

I expected a conclusion of the Ukraine war in 2025, now half way through 2026 it is still escalating, will this be the same situation In Iran, will we still be watching this fiasco in 2027 ?  

 

If I was a betting man I would no longer bet on any date, but I would be willing to bet on who will be still standing when all this is over. The worst thing for the world would be an imminent Russian defeat, as that would not bring about a collapse of its government but an end to civilization in Europe. The Iran war is a similar situation in that Iran needs to retain control of the strait of Hormuz, no matter the cost, as losing that control would be its demise. Hoping that the population will soon overthrow their government and lead to a government that now loves the U.S. and Israel is a very dangerous delusion. They like the Russians understand that their country and their future is at stake.  

 

No matter how hard the powers at be try to convince the west that their future is at risk by Russia's and Iran's existence, it is a weak argument, that is becoming a hard sell. It will be an exercise in Human gullibility to see how long a self induced economic downturn and the massive shortages of food and energy can be blamed on the Iranians and the Russians.

 

While not a rational response, history has proved that whole populations do fall for this type of bullshit repeatedly through human history, with the accompanying devastating results. 

 

 

 

Day 145, More money for perpetual war.

 COSTS AND CASUALTIES LIKELY UNDERESTIMATED

U.S. CREDIBILITY NO LONGER EXISTS

 

Senate hearings have revealed that this administration has no credibility concerning  their assessment of the Iran war. Their statements about every aspect have exaggerated or suppressed the truth from the very beginning.   It all began with the reasons for this war, it is clear it was orchestrated by Israel and we went along. Of course, it was all about weapons of mass destruction,  the usual fall back when you want to go to war. Then the assurances of a weeks long conflict, that is now approaching 6 months. Now we hear a cost of  $37 billion, with a massing of troops and equipment for over 1 year and the destruction of decades of buildings and assets destroyed, another gross underestimate.

 

Now the plea is for another $87 billion, judging from the estimate to date, that should last another 2 years. Then there is need for another $500 billion added to the $1 Trillion defense budget, they must be planning for a lot of war in the future.

 

There is no clear objective, no transparent plan, it is now obvious the plan is the Netanyahu plan for the total destruction of Iran. That will be followed with the plan for destruction of  Turkey, then Egypt, maybe it they will need another $500 billion. The Senate should stop talking to the middlemen and bring in Netanyahu and ask the questions directly. 

 

If this war keeps going it is likely to lead to  an all out regional war that will destroy the global economy, the U.S. economy and finally end the status of the United States as a world power. Ironic, that attempting to sustain world power at all costs will lead to its inevitable end.

 

While the Senators all made interesting points and video clips, they will give them the added money, they will incorporate Israels military into the U.S. military budget. Don't expect anything to change, we are on a road to destruction with no exit. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Beginning of great battle underway in Ukraine.

 PIVOTAL BATTLE FOR UKRAINE'S DEFENSE BELT

LAST FORTIFIED AREA OF THE DONETSK

 

While most of the world is focused on the Iran conflict, a pivotal battle is shaping up for  control of the Donetsk  region in Ukraine.  This area labeled "the defense belt "is comprised of 3 cities, Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Kostianlynivka, west of this 50 km belt is little resistance or postulation to slow the Russian advance.

 

It is expected that this battle, already underway in the approaches, will last for months and may result in over 100,000 casualties.  It is the last major defensive position for the Ukrainians in this region, it has been fortified for now 11 years. 

 

This battle is reminiscent of other such battles since 2022, Mariupol,  Bakhmut,  Avdiivka, and Pokrovsk,  all claiming tens o thousands of causalities. It would likely end the battle for the Donetsk oblast. One of the four incorporated by Russia.  

 

This would then leave the Zaporizhahia, and Kherson area to the south, both already under heavy assault.  

 

Ukraine's policy has usually been to not retreat and fight until most are either killed or surrender, we can expect this will be a more intense situation as it will be a huge loss in military men, equipment and morale. 

 

There seems to be some conflict in Ukraine about how to deal with this situation and may have led to the ouster of their military commander. 

 

While Ukraine has inflicted serious damage on Russian infrastructure with long range drones ,the ground war has been a slow and steady move to the west. Many believe the drone war was a last ditch attempt to have some sort of negotiation, but negotiation seems to no longer be a viable alternative. The next possible attempt at negotiation may be after Russia has solidified its hold on the four oblasts incorporated into Russia. 

 

This war can be expected to last into 2027 and result in many more thousands of deaths.