Talks, but little progress, Russia to escalate.

 MIDTERMS HARDEN NEGOTIATIONS

TRUMP TRAPPED IN IRAN

 

Yesterdays negotiations of both conflicts end with little resolved. It appears that Zelensky, who has not been in Ukraine for near 2 weeks, feels emboldened after the midterm elections with democrats pledging renewed support and European leaders urging him to continue. Zelensky insists on a ceasefire before any real negotiations, which will not happen. Russia's answer is that they will now take out all the bridges over the Dneiper river which will in effect cut the country in two and make getting materials into the conflict zone very difficult. Many have pointed to the fact that Russia has not done this before, as proof, it is part of its strategy to bleed the US and the EU of material and assets.  If Russia follows through on this, it will make things very difficult for Ukraine. 

 

The latest deal proposed in Qatar is that the US would release $8 billion in frozen Iranian funds and Iran would open the strait and the US would end the blockade and then real negotiations would begin. Neither side has agreed to this. It is likely that Iran would agree to the deal tentatively made on Feb. 27 in Geneva, except it will continue to control traffic in the strait. It would settle the enrichment problem, but Iran would have the right for commercial purposes, sanctions would be ended. I would expect that may also insist that this deal be consummated as a treaty approved of by the US Senate, or else it could be reneged on at any time.

 

Russia may also want some sort of real treaty as other agreements are often disputed and ended by another administration.

 

After the midterms it seems the Democrats want to escalate in Ukraine and it is doubtful that they will agree to anything with Iran, they will be happy to let Trump squirm for 2 more years. 

 

Both these wars could have been avoided, but hubris and greed have held sway, and continue to do so, there is no way out of either without some humility, there are no winners, only losers. Ukraine will never regain its former possibilities and the US has been bleeding treasure in the west Asia region for 4 decades and will likely continue to do so until it is no longer physically, economically, politically and militarily able to continue. A tragic tale that continues.

 

 

 

 

 

2028 hopefuls distance from Iran, Preparation for war goes on.

 VANCE,  CRUZ NO LONGER TALKING WAR

TRUMP NOT READY TO GIVE IT UP

 

I expect you will soon know who is running for president and maybe any office in 2028, by who is no longer pushing for more war with Iran. J.D. Vance made it clear by his four point plan that even questions the present relationship with Israel. Ted Cruz did not go that far but stated that war has gone on too long. He will have a hard time ever erasing his interview with Tucker Carlson. 

 

Trump is still under pressure from within and Netanyahu to,"finish the job". It is doubtful that he can muster up enough humility to not do just that. Preparations are still underway for more war, even as the narrative is his indecision.

 

It looks like Rubio is also hanging on, hoping for some kind of victory that he can claim for 2028, 

 

Impeachment is underway for Hegsteth,  if you compare his narrative and actions to international law, he is in hot water, but it would implicate lots of others, so it is not clear if he can be made the scapegoat. 

 

It is possible that Trump will be frozen, talking about Iran for the rest of his term. Unable to make them submit and still unwilling to risk the world economy with military action. It may be all over for Trump, or it was all over on February 29, 2026.

 

 

 

 

 

Long term consequences of declining credibility.

LIES, EXAGGERATIONS AND DECEPTION 

TOLL IS NOW BAKED IN FOR YEARS

 

We now live in era of massive lies, exaggerations and tactics to deceive and demonize. The consequences are now becoming evident everywhere. Of course, in our personal lives we would quickly avoid those who would engage in this behavior, whether it was in personal relationships or business. It is sad to observe that these tactics are now predominant in foreign relations and often in business relations. While this behavior in personal relations is disappointing and costly in business, in foreign policy it may be catastrophic for long term relations. Leaders and politicians come and go but unsavory tactics can live on for decades or even centuries.

 

Of course, I am primarily observing the relations between the United States and the rest of the world. Often these tactics are used to gain popular support for war or other political objectives, demonizing others to rally the country for aggressive tactics. Narratives to divide, stoke racial division, or some purported slight. We have all witnessed the increase and blatant use of these tactics.

 

We have seen attacks on negotiators while engaging in negotiations. we have seen the objectives changed when one side is ready to agree to the stated priorities, Iran had essentially agreed to most of the objectives in Geneva the day before the Feb. 28 attack.  The US and UK scuttled the talks in Istanbul in 2022 that would have allowed Ukraine to be intact. Iran had also agreed to end enrichment except for energy and other commercial purposes and the Israel insisted that they have no right to commercial enrichment.

 

Now Iran will not begin serious negotiations until the US puts up good faith, including unfreezing it assets and removing sanctions. Same for Russia, no ceasefire without a comprehensive agreement that will be a long term security arrangement in Europe.

 

Both Iran and Russia can only assume that there is no willingness for a serious negotiation, only another attempt to gain advantage through negotiations and only defeat is the goal of its counterparts. 

 

These examples are not lost on the rest of the world, who can only assume that there is no credibility when dealing with the US, not only with Trump, but with the nations foreign policy, no matter who is the president. It is the same, Republican or  Democrat and will only end when confrontation is no longer militarily or economically possible. 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Are all these wars ultimately about resources?

 CONTROL OF MIDEAST OIL, REAL US MOTIVE

ALREADY CONTROL OIL OF IRAQ, SYRIA, LIBYA AND VENEZUELA

 

While Israel has desired war with all its neighbors, and has been able to have the US accomplish just that, it is far from the real motive of US leaders. Do you really think that George Bush 1, Dick Cheney,  Joe Biden or Donald Trump really cared about Israeli dominance or a greater Israel project? While they have been willing to voice what Israel supporters want and the Christian Zionist believers want to hear. There is lots of evidence that their real motive is oil and the wealth and power of being able to control that oil.

 

While George Bush 1  satisfied Israel's desire to diminish the military power of Iraq, it was very convenient in accomplishing the goal of oil control. Saddam's, military was destroyed, while letting him live, if he agreed to obey in giving the US control of its oil. When that did not happen, it was all about weapons of mass destruction and the US has controlled Iraqi oil ever since.

 

Since 2003 all revenue from the sale of Iraqi oil is deposited into the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The money is managed by the Iraq development fund, while monitored by an international committee, Iraq must petition for funds. This fund is financed by over $100 billion in oil sales a year, for now 23 years.

 

We see a very similar arrangement with recent take over of Venezuelan oil, it is also deposited in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, but it is not clear who or how it will be administered. The Venezuelan government does need to petition for any of the money.

 

The Libyan civil war, financed by the west and aided by NATO air power  came after Qaddafi agreed to inspections of his supposed weapons of mass destruction and pledging to allow western oil companies access to Libyan oil.  This was followed by the killing of Qaddafi and now the oil is under control of western powers. This policy is now called the "Libyan plan" in reference to other states to be overthrown.

 

The US Treasury dept, office of foreign asset control, has the power to approve contracts for access and development of Syrian and Libyan oil. 

 

Massad Boulos a Trump Senior advisor on  Africa and Arab affairs, father in law of Tiffany Trump, Trumps daughter with Marla Maples.  It is reported that Boulos has major diplomatic and economic ties to the administration of Syrian and Libyan oil 

 

Recently  Trump gave administration of Syrian oil to Delta Crescent energy incorporated in Delaware in 2019. It is run by James Cain, former ambassador to Denmark, James Reese, former Delta Force and John P. Dorrier Jr. former executive of Gulf Sands petroleum. a previously unheard of company.

 

While Libya and Syria were small countries and easily overthrown, it is understood by Iran as to its fate in its dealing with the US. We can expect that the plan to administer Iranian oil is already drawn up and after that most likely all of the gulf oil.  While this money is under US control, it does not go into the US treasury. while the control does give the US power with the leverage of this control, it can be expected others reap the financial benefits.

 

Russia is of course is another source of vast resources and it has avoided being controlled by western powers, Nigeria is mot likely on the list as is any country with essential resources.

 

One has to wonder if Israel is more about providing division and chaos in the region to assist in the ultimate goal of resource control?  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Democrats plan to prioritize Ukraine, Time for 3rd party?

  WOKE DOMESTIC POLICY AND MORE WAR

BOTH UNSUSTAINABLE 

 

From the speeches yesterday and our history we can now expect to be the subject of the Tag team. We can expect that the deep state will now get to intensify support for the Ukraine war. Government regulation will intensify and of course new axes that will affect everyone. The push for asset taxes and the accompanying mandate for disclosing everyone possessions.  How can bureaucrats know who to tax or who the rich are without mandatory reporting. While the Republicans tend to focus on denying some of our constitutional rights like unwarranted surveillance, looks like speech censorship is already on the horizon and of course gun control, and the reintroduction of fights over abortion.  

 

While the voters anger switched parties, it will not change the overall decline of America. It will be different on the domestic policy, but will include more war and the big money will now line up in support of their agenda. The corruption will continue, it will just be the other parties turn to enjoy the spoils of victory.

 

Many hoped that Trump would drain the swamp and end needless foreign wars, but we saw more war and threats of war, no revelations on the Epstein compromise machine and lots of financial corruption. One has to wonder if it is even possible to reign in the excesses of Washington by the citizens by the voting process. 

 

It may be time for a 3rd party, it could be effective until of course the same characters infiltrate and compromise that party, but al least it would be a hope where there is no hope in these two corrupt parties. 

 

It is pretty clear that Washington and the whipsawing of the electorate will not be changed by the electoral process, but it is all unsustainable and it will all collapse by the weight of its own excesses. Hopefully, the citizens who remain will have gained enough morality and wisdom to rebuild. 

 

 

 

 

Wipeout, biggest election loss since 1994.

 ELECTION PROMISES BROKEN HAVE CONSEQUENCES

CAN DEMOCRATS HANDLE VICTORY? 

 

It looks like a bloodbath in the US senate, possibly a historic shift. The House and even local races look like a massive shift in power.  It is also clear that much of the shift is caused by votes against the losers or possibly votes against Trump, rather actual votes for the policies of the winners. If the Democrats could actually govern in a stable way they could possibly cement these wins for some time. At present there is a void of real leadership with a long term plan and they may very well self destruct in their enthusiasm.

 

Hopefully the Republicans will come to an accurate conclusion as to why this has happened.  Generally the Republicans have the best polices for domestic issues, but have succumbed to embrace the permanent war policy.

 

We have no way of knowing what the Democrats foreign policy is,  they have been supportive of permanent war as well. Their domestic policies will further the decline of the country. 

 

It will be interesting to watch how Trump will handle this loss, it is a massive loss, and he he is directly responsible. Will he blame the press, voter fraud, or outside interference. The reality is he crapped the bed and may blame the smell on others.  

 

I suspect the Israel lobby is now badly damaged, they are on their way to becoming radioactive. It will be interesting to see how many of their candidates lost. Revelations about Rogers campaign in Michigan having registered Israeli agents members on his campaign was a real issue in the last days of the campaign. 

 

Well, have some time of peace, and get ready for the next go around in 2028.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Election day, Iran war will overshadow everything.

 REPUBLICANS WILL DENY WAR WAS THE CAUSE

DEMOCRATS WILL CREDIT THEIR SUPERIOR POLICIES 

 

We will soon see just how bad the election results will be for Republicans.  Then we will be bombarded with all the reasons for the losses. Then of course if it is not a real bloodbath, they will find cause to celebrate. The Republicans are going to have losses, it is just how many.

 

I suspect much of this vote will be based on the vote against, or vote never cast, against the war in Iran. If the whole Iran thing would be stripped out of history we would probably have a reasonably good economy, low inflation, reasonable energy and food prices.

 

The majority  support dealing with illegal immigration and the changes to the tax laws should be a positive for many people especially for hourly workers.

 

Trump's original policy of using tariffs to rid unfair trade protectionism from trading partners, morphed into using trade as a political weapon to gain support for war in Ukraine and Iran. These policies have hurt the domestic economy, as much as those it targeted.

 

During Trump's first term he avoided war for 4 years,  in his second he has embraced war and threats of war as the base of his foreign policy. While some Republican elitist loved that approach and others were pressured to support it, elected Republicans will understand today how the public viewed these policies. 

 

Democrats will credit all their victories, if that is the case, as a stamp of approval of their proposed policies, the same polices that have been the reason for their decline in recent years. If they win, it is not that they are now loved, it is because many feel betrayed by those they supported in the past.

 

No w we can observe tomorrows analysis by both sides, that is if we are not distracted by more war with Iran.