Israel believes war will restart after midterms.

 TRUMP NARRATIVE DOES NOT MATCH ACTIONS

HARD TO PREDICT WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN 5 MONTHS 

 

Watching news and other media out of Israel it seems Israel is not ready for anything short of the destruction of Iran. It also seems they are convinced Trump will restart the war after the midterms. While Trump could be signaling that intention and also often threatening that action it may be unlikely that will happen. We can assume Trump will not restart a war with Iran unless there is plan to actually accomplish some real goals. It is unlikely he will do a redo on Netanyahu and Mossad's assumptions.

 

That and who knows what will be the outcome of those elections and who knows what other crisis is on the horizon, there are many possibilities. There are multiple crisis brewing, and even with keeping the control of congress, another war will become hard to sell.  I am beginning to believe that this was the only attempt on Iran we will see in Trump's presidency. The supporters of war with Iran may have to groom the president for war with Iran.

The increasing quest for recurring income.

 THE EFFORT TO BLEED CONSUMERS REGULARLY

MOVING AWAY FROM OWNING ANYTHING 

 

If you are paying attention, it is becoming clear that the new trend is to have consumers no longer buy anything that does not have a lifetime of continued payments attached. In effect, big business is on a road of demanding continued payments for the use of software, or subscriptions attached to new cars or other major appliances. This is often labeled as computer upgrades etc. Many people who do not keep track of their finances fail to realize they are often paying monthly fees for many things they either no longer own or services they no longer use. 

 

In the pharmaceutical business the focus has been on maintenance drugs, drugs that they expect the patient will use regulatory for the rest of their live. This often results in actual cures or 1 time prevention drugs put aside in favor of recurring revenue. 

 

Farmers  lobby congress to intervene in the production of farm equipment that is increasingly computerized, require monthly subscription fees for upgrades and often requiring propitiatory software to diagnose the problems causing long delays and often costing them time in harvesting of crops.  The revenue of John Deere has fallen near 50 % as farmers have rebelled and moved to manufacturers who are still making more maintainable equipment. 

 

Microsoft, the premier software company that has historically had a near monopoly on operating systems installed on most computers is now also feeling push back. Lenovo the largest by volume producer of computers has now made Linux the default operating system., Microsoft is now a option with added fee. Hewlett Packard the second largest producer is now not including Operating systems in their computers they are now an option. Much has to do with Windows 11  which requires new hardware making many good computers instantly obsolete and it seems Microsoft is planning on requiring monthly subscriptions with fees for cloud storage and software rental. 

 

The auto manufacturers are attempting in going down the same road with monthly subscriptions, proprietary software to cut out small repair shops and an endless costs of up grades and factory or dealer maintenance. 

 

This trend is leaving a door open for new  producers to offer simpler, less complicated equipment that the customer can own outright and have more control of their equipment and their lives.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Will Ukraine soon overshadow Iran?

 NEGOTIATIONS MOVING FORWARD WITH IRAN

AS EUROPE PREPARES FOR WAR RUSSIA CONTEMPLATES RESPONSE

 

Contrary to the bluster out of Washington, the talks in Switzerland seem to moving forward steadily. We can assume that half of the frozen assets of Iran have been returned. It is reported that the IAEA  representatives are joining the discussions which indicates that the framework for nuclear inspections is now being negotiated, this was considered to not happen until much further along.  Sanctions on Iranian oil sales have been lifted. All this indicates that these negotiations are moving forward and may be concluded well before 60 days. Of course, one can never predict exactly what will happen tomorrow.

 

The Ukraine conflict is now in the process of hot escalation, while Russia continues to incrementally advance on the battlefield, Ukraine, with use of drones, has been increasing attacks on Russian infrastructure. It is having an effect that Russia can no longer ignore. The supply of western supplied drones has increased dramatically in numbers and quality. It seems they have been supplied by the UK, Germany and the U.S. The sentiment in Russia is growing for some sort of attacks on NATO manufacturing to send a message that Russia understands this is a NATO/Russian conflict. It could be a conventional attack which many suspect will require a conventional response in retaliation, this will then set the stage for nuclear retaliation. 

 

One has to wonder if the expedited deal with Iran is influenced by the expected critical escalation in Ukraine. While the Iran conflict created a major economic crisis, the conflict in Ukraine could become far more dangerous, very quickly. The major NATO members have been increasingly talking of war with Russia and now they are considering converting  their manufacturing assets to war production. This is also being considered in the U.S. 

 

Whether it is real or an attempt at intimidation, the net result could be the same. Russia will not submit to this intimidation and the outcome could be a quick escalation to all out European war.  This, of course, would soon engulf the entire globe. 

 

It does appear that a pivotal point is approaching in Europe and, so far, little real diplomacy is to be seen. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lying about the Iran situation is having consequences.

 REASONS WHY NEGOTIATION IS THE BEST OPTION

IT WILL BE REVEALED IN TIME

 

Many are shocked that the U.S. would go down the negotiation route especially when the outline of negotiations will allow Iran to survive, sell oil and potentially prosper in the future. It appears they will retain the right to nuclear enrichment for commercial reasons and submit to inspections. The sanctions on them will be lifted for the first time in 47 years. Their frozen assets will be given back. Why is this happening ,when it has been reported that Iran has been decimated, their military no longer exists and they are on the so called ropes. Misinformation about this conflict, in an attempt to call the result a win has now come back to cause wide spread disbelief as to why this is the best option. Here are some of the reasons.

 

1. Both the U.S. and Israel were dangerously short of air defense interceptors. There has been a coordinated effort to minimize the damage caused by Iran's ballistic missiles on U.S. bases and Israel.

 

2. The attacks on Iran were possible using stand off missiles fired from Naval assets and air to ground missiles fired outside Iranian air space. While huge numbers of standard bombs are available they would require aircraft to fly over Iran and contrary to the narrative, Iran never turned on their air defenses ,understanding it would make them vulnerable to stand off weapons. The U.S. was not flying over Iran. If we recall the missing pilot saga, no longer talked about, it seems this was covert action to possibly retrieve the nuclear material, it ended badly, with the loss of 2 fighter jets, 4 helicopters and 2 other aircraft, the retrieved ordinance officer is still not identified, possibly because it was not an American. This did not happen because Iran no longer had air defenses.

 

3. It became clear that defeating Iran would require boots on the ground with the possible massive casualties in both ground troops and air support. It would have propelled the U.S. into to an extended war requiring the call up of troops with no clear assurance of quick victory. The geography, population and years of preparation made Iran a formidable opponent.

 

4. The strait of Hormuz put this whole thing on a clock, the worlds oil reserve were becoming depleted,  The Embargo was weak since Iran has access to the Caspian sea and multiple land routes.

 

5. Russia and China views Iran as a pivotal asset for their future commercial business, strategic location on the east west and north south routes. They would have supplied Iran in any prolonged conflict that could have tied the U.S. down for a very long time and drained its resources.

 

6. Iran still had substantial missile capabilities, it threatened to destroy the desalination and oil resources of the region if its infrastructure was attacked, we can assume that the U.S. intelligence understood this reality.

 

Then there is the reality that Iran has been moving in a more moderate direction, with a view that it wanted to become a player in BRICS and  become a less confrontational actor. It has shown restraint even with the assassination of its leadership, attack on it school girls, it did not become enraged and lash out, without purpose, it mostly engaged in measure retaliation to attacks.  It has been rational in its negotiations and firm in demanding that it desired to become a member of the world community. 

 

Trump did not go down the negotiation path because he did not want to defeat Iran, but because the cost in that endeavor was not predictable, very high, with no assurance of victory. This is the same calculation that 4 other presidents came to, ,after careful analysis from objective U.S. analysts. This war has given Iran the leverage to change the direction of its relationship going forward. It could be the best result for everyone, if successful.

 

 

 

 

 

Is Trump hoping to end talks?

 WE WILL KNOW SOON IF TRUMP WANTS TO END THIS

TRASH TALK WILL GAIN NOTHING 

 

The opening of talks in Switzerland began very rocky, mostly due to outrageous trash talking by Trump. Trump told Iran they better cooperate or he would take over their country and that they may not ever get back home, a direct threat to the lives of the negotiators. This is similar talk that ended the 1st. talks in Pakistan. He also threatened to take over the strait and charge tolls. It seems the talks have not been ended,  the strategy is is not clear,  is Trump attempting to be tough for Israeli and domestic neocon consumption? It is just making Trump look unhinged.

 

While the narrative is ongoing that this agreement is a bad deal, no one has come up with an alternative. 

 

Many are calling for renewed military action, it is clear that more action will cause a retaliation from Iran that will seriously damage the oil infrastructure of the region, and will cause a global economic crisis. A renewed air war would need to attack infrastructure and Iran does have the capacity to do the same in the region.

 

A ground war with Iran has not been seriously considered by any real military people, it would be a costly catastrophe. 

 

Continuing as is,  unsustainable, as world oil reserves have only weeks left, this conflict needs to be ended very soon.  

 

A settlement may be the only way to save Israel from itself. It is doubtful that Israel can sustain these conflicts and if it escalates and threatens nuclear war, the possibility of other major world powers coming to the conclusion that the quickest way to end all this is a massive attack on Israel. They could be destroyed in bours and what good would a response from the United States accomplish at that point.

 

The reality is, this conflict needs to end very soon and odds are that it will.

 

 

 

Consequences of Iran war will be long term.

 IT APPEARS DECISION HAS BEEN MADE TO  MOVE FORWARD

OIL PRICES TO REMAIN ELEVATED, POLITICAL WARS INCREASE

Word is out, ships are beginning to move in the strait of Hormuz, while only a fraction of former traffic, it can be expected to increase in the coming days. Oil futures prices have fallen, but it appears that it will take many months for prices to normalize. Demand will rise as Governments attempt to replenish reserves drawn down in recent months. Most reserves were within weeks of being depleted.

It is reported that Vance has canceled his meeting in Switzerland due to logistics problems or an attempt to not give ammunition to the opposition to this deal. We should expect negotiations will now be conducted with little transparency and little drama. 

While many sceptics, with good reason, have doubted the sincerity of this deal on Trump's part, it does, at least for now, look like Trump has made the decision to end this. A difficult decision, but all the other options would result in a long term commitment that could have lasted years. It may be that now that that decision has been made it will be implemented quickly.

The political consequences are just beginning, the political warfare will be intense from those who wanted to keep this going for years. We will hear that just a little longer, or a few more attacks would have made the difference and the government would have collapsed. Same litany that we have heard for years in diverse places all the while the debts keep exploding the deficits increasing and economic peril increases at home. The consequence of this war are going to be costly, but Trump is experienced in cutting his loses when staying engaged would be worse.

Israel will need to make adjustments to its policy's, whether it wants to or not, We can expect their own domestic political situation will be intense as well. It is predictable that other crisis's and other challenges will soon take the attention of  us all. 

Will Trump revise his policy in other fronts?

 HOW ABOUT NORMALIZING RELATIONS WITH CUBA?

OR WILL HE NOW DOUBLE DOWN IN THIS HEMISPHERE?

The repercussions of Trump's decision to end this Iran war are far from over, they most likely have just begun. We can expect that if this MOA is signed and begins to transpire, the opposition will organize in ways to make life difficult for Trump. The reality is that 30+ years of military and economic intervention have run up an enormous debt, deeply divided the nation at home and caused the U.S. standing in the world to be at a historical low. Never the less many factions want more of the same and Trump did promise to change direction of the country, it does appear that Trump has made the decision to change direction in the middle east. Will he also change direction in his approach to the other crisis's festering around the world?

The reality is the U.S. is not, at its roots, the power it once was, one of the reasons for the pause in this conflict was the enormous expenditure of precision weapons could not be sustained. This is can attributed to years of military action, a diminished manufacturing base and dependence on others for strategic supplies. It became apparent that Iran was not going to fall from air power alone and the world could not maintain an oil embargo without drastic consequences. All the naysayers keep up the narrative about finishing off Iran without any real plan to do it. Trump was on the hot seat, he looked at all the options, even nuclear weapons, and finally came to his only real option, especially if he felt he would like to do other things than engage in war for the rest of his term.

The lesson is similar in the Russia/Ukraine conflict, a neutral non aligned Ukraine could have been the most prosperous country in eastern Europe, the EU, particularly Germany, had a cushy energy arrangement with Russia that allowed them to prosper, but threw it all away due to the Neocon dream of dismembering Russia. So far, they cannot suck it up and change direction. 

All the while, China sets an example of non-intervention, growing their economy and infrastructure at home and making mutually prosperous deals with all those willing to partner with them. 

The U.S. cannot maintain its global power by military force, unless it wants to go nuclear on all its adversaries, a real self destructing idea, that some are entertaining. The West needs a new perspective on the global security and economic realities of the 21 St. century. Hopefully, the Iran war can be lesson and hopefully it will be successful.