Day 70, Indications of war far into the future.

 SENATE DEFENSE BUDGET HEARING INDICATES MORE WAR

PERSIAN GULF STRAIT AUTHORITY UNVEILED

The Persian gulf war ceasefire seems to be on life support and hostilities could commence at any time. It appears that war will be the status for many months, if not years to come. 

Yesterday, Iran unveiled its new "Persian Gulf Strait authority", PGSA, to administer traffic through the strait of Hormuz, It defines the corridors and conditions complete with application forms. We will see if it will be able to allow traffic through the strait.

The recent Senate hearings on the new Defense Budget to $1.5 trillion seems to have many Senators, both Democrat and Republican, ecstatic at the hope of government money flowing into their states. We can expect that massive increase will be approved. The hearings narrative is that the United States now faces threats from many places and national security must be the most important thing on the agenda. It now appears that the Trump administration will soon confine its focus to foreign relations and war on many fronts. 

Discussion in the hearings on the need to implement the "Defense Production Act" and use corporations to increase military supplies including Detroit Auto makers. It is also planned to replace the dwindling energy supplies out of the gulf with U.S. LNG. creating excitement from Alaska's senators. One must ask, is the U.S. about to go on a total war footing? 

It may be that the status of the strait of Hormuz is exactly what is desired, replacing Persian gulf oil with U.S. LNG and thereby cutting off energy to those who we want to contain and control, and insure the payments in U.S. dollars.

Also part of the new budget is starting in December 2026, the Selective service registration will be automatically completed by information gathered from existing data. It will apply to all males between 18 and 26. 

It is clear that dominating the globe will require many more ships and sailors.

Day 69, More fake peace announcements?

 OIL PLUMMETS AGAIN ON PEACE PLAN

AMAZING THAT THIS STILL WORKS

On Sunday we saw the new plan to open the strait of Hormuz, it lasted one day. It was then followed by an announcement of an imminent peace deal, that only the U.S. knows anything about. It was followed by large drop in the oil futures market, just like after every other imminent peace deal. 

Project freedom lasted one day because Iran struck the UAE oil terminal that bypasses the strait of Hormuz and directs oil to the Red sea. It is reported that Saudi Arabia and Qatar also complained that it was going to risk damage to their oil facilities. Saudi Arabia yesterday announced it would now ban the use of its airfields and airspace for future attacks on Iran. The gulf nations understand that Iran is warning that if attacked again, they will destroy the oil production facilities in the region.

It seems there really is no progress on an end to this conflict and I doubt that Trump is that concerned if the gulf oil is taken offline permanently, except for the rise of the oil price, which would be politically damaging.  It is becoming obvious Trump believes the U.S. can supply oil to its allies if necessary and will increase the U.S. trade income.

The trade war, especially in oil, is heating up, Ukraine, with the help of the NATO, is increasing its attacks on Russian oil. Interruption of oil tankers is occurring in many places. Russia has warned Ukraine that any attacks on Moscow during their WW2 celebrations this weekend is going to result in a massive attack on Kiev, and has recommended the evacuation of civilians from Kiev. I doubt that this is an idle threat.

The increased threat to global oil supplies can be expected to result in big power direct conflict at some time, probably soon.

As for Iran, the air war has not brought about capitulation, further air war promises to bring retaliation and a further damage  to oil supplies. The attempt to capture the nuclear material failed and the attempt to open the strait also failed. Now in the 10th week, it may be an indication that this conflict may go on for many months. It is racking up enormous costs to everyone on the planet. There is no indication that either side will capitulate any time soon.

U.S. policy, Reinvent the British Empire?

PLANNING ON  RULING THE WORLD

CONTROLLING GLOBAL CHOKE POINTS AND ENERGY

While many assume the Iran war is a tragic mistake or caused by Trump's deference to Israel. The reality is becoming quite clear that this is all about global dominance. It is not a mistake, it is all about the foreign policy adopted long ago, at least for 35 years. It is nothing more than an attempt to reinvent the British Empire, but under U.S. dominance. 

At one time the British Empire came as close to any nation in history in ruling the world. While Greece, Rome and others ruled the advanced world of the time, only the British empire did, in effect, rule the world. It was not possible until the industrial age with ships and eventually aviation, capable of projecting power around the world. 

It seems this plan has been adopted by the Trump administration, before being sworn in for his second term. He signed on for the plan being pursued by previous administrations.  Whether the American citizenry really wants to adopt the policies of the former British empire, is yet to be decided. A system that created division, death and destruction and forced it dominance by any means possible, starvation in Ireland and India, forced drug acceptance in China or brute military power. For any Christian or other person with a morale foundation it is not what we should be setting the hope of our future on.

The signs were visible since the beginning of this administration, The changing of the name of the department of defense to the department of war. The funneling of all saving wrought by DOGE to the military budget and now the hope of increasing the military budget by 50%. The plan to retake control of the Panama Canal and the plan to incorporate Greenland and Canada into the U.S.,the colonisation of Venezuelan oil and now the attempt to take control of Iranian oil, all Persian gulf oil and control the strait of Hormuz and Malacca straits. This is also tied to the hope of gaining access to Russian oil and resources or make them unavailable to the rest of the world. It is a hope to control the flow of energy and resources all around the world and thereby force political compliance and the use of the dollar in world trade. 

So far, the rest of the world has not seriously pushed back to this plan, whether because they do not believe the U.S. has the financial or manufacturing base to support this project and would rather see it die of its own overextension rather than by military confrontation. We may expect that soon all that may change, as now, the economic security of many nations is being threatened.

This plan requires a large vibrant Navy. The U.S. produced .5% of the world ships, China produces 50%., similar statistics relate to steel production, China produces over 1 Billion tons, the U.S. 80 million tons. A world ruling nation needs massive amounts of production. It also requires massive investment in capacity, the U.S has near $40 Trillion in debt caused by past consumption, with little available for investment in the future.

If the plan is to "Make America Great Again" by coercion, threats and controlling who will get resources and at what price, the leadership should have focused on providing the ability to sustain that power. When this power is seriously challenged, which it soon will, it may be a short and devastating disappointment.

Will AI produce wealth?

GOVERNMENTS MAY BE BIGGEST CUSTOMERS

WILL AID IN EXPANDING SURVEILLANCE STATE

AI has become the biggest source of speculative profit in the stock market. It is estimated that 75 to 80% of the stock market gains in 2025 were related to AI stocks. It brings back memories of the .com boom and bust of the past. While I suspect there will be success stories in AI, I have yet to understand how this new phenomenon will translate to more food, energy or improvement in the standard of living of the general population. 

So far,  it appears the biggest customer is government, for either military applications or for expanding the surveillance state. I suppose that it could eliminate a lot of jobs and costs in the bureaucracy, but only time will tell if it will be used in that way.  I also believe that there will be a massive bust in these companies as the best and those with the applications that can produce wealth will survive and prosper. With the advent of the internet, those companies and applications that increase sales and revenue out lasted those that did not. In most cases it was able to facilitate the movement of goods and services to more people more efficiently.   

So far, AI appears to be mostly about collecting data. We hear of massive data centers rising everywhere, with there thirst for energy. A thirst that may add to the cost to the public, but will it benefit the public or just make data about the populace a commodity. A commodity that will not likely produce any product or resource needed for human needs.

If AI is going to be used to better surveil and control the population one has to wonder, why. Does government now view its citizens with suspicion and will AI make it easier to identify those that may not be willing to easily conform to government plans. 

It seems the world is hell bent, or at least the elites and governments, about the possibilities of AI, all to be paid for by the taxpayers. There needs to be a better explanation of how this new technology will add to the wellbeing of the general population.

 

Day 66. U.S. goal is control of global oil.

 ASSUMED PATH TO GLOBAL CONTROL

ALL DEPENDENT ON U.S. NAVY

We must assume that the crisis in Iran will continue, no matter the consequences to the global economic system. It is now clear that oil is the ultimate weapon to be used to maintain political control of the global economic system.  While many assume the Iran war was a blunder or a plan originating in Israel, it is far more. It is just one step in a attempt to maintain control of the global economy. 

It seems Trump's second term is all in on the ongoing plan of the neocon elements in the U.S. to maintain U.S. global hegemony. This plan started with the first Bush administration, if not sooner, and has been followed by every administration with the possible exception of the first Trump administration. The hope is to maintain global control by controlling global oil supplies. So far, the U.S., besides being the largest producer of oil, at least for now, controls the oil of Venezuela and Iraq, and now all the oil coming out of the Persian gulf. Don't expect the U.S. to relinquish this power anytime soon. 

As the U.S. has focused on the persian gulf, they have delegated the diminishing of Russian oil to, Europe and Ukraine., who have been increasing their attacks on Russian oil production. I suspect the so called estrangement with NATO is just so much theater. It seems Ukraine is now more focused on attacking Russian oil production than even defending their territory and the EU is upping pressure on Russian navigation, everywhere it can.

With the blockade of the strait of Hormuz and pressure being exerted on Indonesia to give the U.S. access to controlling the strait of Malacca, the U.S. can control most petroleum products destined for China and all the southeast Asian countries all either part of BRICS or ASEAN alternatives to U.S. controlled economic system.

The attempt is to force the use of the dollar in international trade and hope to continue the U.S. ability to use sanctions and other pressure to maintain political control. The gulf nations were beginning to trade their oil for other currencies, with the U.S. controlling the Strait of Hormuz that will come to an end. 

While there has been success so far, Europe has been stripped of their access to Russian oil, by sanctions and the destruction of the oil pipeline, the big target now is China and southeast asia. So far, India has resisted giving up its access to Russian oil and China has just in the last few days refused to adhere to U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil. Trump is expected to visit China in ten days, and we can expect an attempt to intimidate China.

While all this seems to be well underway, no one has yet to challenge the U.S. on the high seas. The big enforcer of all this is the U.S. Navy, the undisputed, as least so far, dominant Navy in the world. The question is, can the U.S. maintain this Navy, with the economic crisis of debt, fiscal irresponsibility and a manufacturing base that is questionable in maintaining and renewing this naval power.

The U.S. has 11 aircraft carriers and only 3 are in service, and one of those is now headed for the U.S. There are serious morale problems reported due to long overextended duty cycles and the same applies so the U.S. reserve system decimated by long and repeated call ups. As this attempt to control the oil increases, it will be a serious threat to many and can the U.S. increase its Naval presence and can it replace any vessels damaged or destroyed? Can it find the qualified sailors to keep this fleet in service? 

As this use of the NAVY increases, we can expect pushback for those affected by diminished oil resources, the U.S. Navy is the obvious target, and there are several that have substantial capabilities to challenge the NAVY dominance.  

 

Day 63, Economic pressures rising.

 RESUME MILITARY ACTION SOON, OR GO HOME

TOLL ON ECONOMY, MIDTERM ELECTIONS 

All indications are that an attack on Iran is imminent. Today is May 1, and primary elections will be happening in the weeks ahead, it can be expected that this war will have some influence on even these elections, but with 7 months until the general election, time is running out to have some sort of conclusion to this conflict. That, coupled with the fact that economic pressure is building, particularly in other parts of the world, but it will also affect economic condition here at home.

It is very unlikely that a revolution is in the making in Iran. While sanctions and the blockade will damage the economy it will not happen in the immediate future. A major attack will assuredly be responded to by Iran and will further damage the global economy. A military operation to gain control of the strait of Hormuz is a real gamble, failure would be catastrophic to both Trump and the U.S. image. It seems the nuclear material is no longer at the top of the list of conditions. It is all about the global oil supply and Iran at present has control of the strait of Hormuz. This will only intensify with every passing day.

Possibly the best solution would be to back off, allow Iran to regulate traffic through the strait and hope that the global economy will recover quickly. it would be a humbling experience, but would at least be a predictable outcome that would not worsen the global economic system.

Trump could still claim victory that Iran's nuclear ability is devastated and that its economy has been seriously damaged. It would also allow revisiting this issue after the elections. In fact, if the elections go badly, Trump will only have foreign relations left for the rest of his presidency, his domestic policy already disrupted by this war will then be nonexistent. In fact, if the border wall is not completed by Jan. 2027, it will most likely never be completed.

It appears as though Trump has shifted from, "Make America Great" at home to have a large military and attempt to rule the world. It will end as all such endeavors in history have ended, with failure and further decline at home. 

Day 62, Countdown to military escalation.

 TRUMP GOING DOWN 

NO MORE TALKING DOWN THE OIL PRICE 

Market price of oil today is $106 a barrel, actual price in Asia is over $200 a barrel. It is the ultimate pressure on the Trump administration to make a decision on the direction of this war with Iran. It is unlikely that there is any real effort for a peaceful solution. Iran will not sacrifice their future sovournity for a temporary promise without any assurance that sanctions and war will not be in the future. Trump will not do any deal that will make him appear to have capitulated. Israel and the Christian Zionists want Iran to look like Gaza. The Neocons have been anticipating the control of Iran's oil for 46 years.

It appears that the war will now enter a new phase, as military resources are pouring into the region. Iran understands this and is preparing to respond accordingly. With the price of oil now increasing by the day and all the artificial restraints on the prices coming to an end, resumption of war looks imminent, again. 

Trump has only one way to escape this coming catastrophe and that is jettison all the warmongers and return to his pre-election campaign promises. It is time for him to stand up, no matter the consequences, if he has any hope to avoid surpassing Jimmy Carter as the worst president in history, so far. We will see if he really does have a spine left or is under the control of all the worst elements in Washington and Tel Aviv.