More desperate moves, Trump trapped.

 DOUBLING DOWN, RISKING CATASTROPHE

NETANYAHU KNEW HIS MAN 

 

Yesterday, Trump announced he was going to be the guardian of the strait of Hormuz for a slight fee of 20 % of  the value of all goods passing through the strait. His plan now makes Iran's plan a real bargain in comparison. Most question if it is possible for the U.S. to actually take control of the strait, we could speculate, if that was possible, it would have been attempted before now, rather than a last minute gamble.

 

While it is claimed that the Iranians broke the MOU, it can be pointed out that the first issue with the MOU, considered a strong sign of good faith by the U.S. was the repaying of 1/2 of Iran's frozen assets. It never happened, the U.S. tried to repay it, by issuing a credit that they could buy goods from the U.S. particularity agriculture products. Iran wanted real money not a credit. It is clear that the U.S. never wanted to honor the terms of the MOU,  hoping it could renegotiate by stalling, changing the terms and restore oil inventories while the strait was open. It seems that is all history, at least for now. 

 

The reality is that Iran had agreed to most of the things that the U.S. wanted in Geneva in February, immediately before this war started. Now, Iran is  no longer trusting anything that is proposed by the U.S. This situation is similar to the deal reached in Turkey in April 2023 that would have preserved the borders of Ukraine and allowed Ukraine to be prosperous independent country, It would have had to be a militarily neutral country.i It was squashed by the UK and the U.S. in the same way that Netanyahu squashed the hope of any resolution with Iran. It appears that Israel was informed of the possible deal and made sure that it was impossible to have a real deal in the future. 

 

It is no secret that every time Netanyahu came to Washington he had folders of targets in Iran, It can be assumed that Israel knew that killing the Ayatollah and the leadership of Iran and the school girls would become a tactic that the Iranians could never forget. It would cause a war with Iran and the United States, a war that Trump would have a hard time not being a winner and Iran would have lost all faith in any negotiations with the U.S.  Yes, Trump pulled the trigger and now he is hog tied like a rodeo steer, unable to  overcome his hubris and possibly fearing retribution from Israel if he backs down. 

 

While this war between the U.S and Iran escalates, we no longer hear from Netanyahu or Israel even participating in the war. Remarkable accomplishment to bring about a war between the U.S. and Iran in the hope that the U.S. will destroy Iran.  

 

Anyway, it appears Trump is desperate for a win, and may sacrifice his presidency and the position of the U.S. going forward, rather than cut his losses and go home and resume rebuilding the U.S. for the future. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

War back on, Are more bombs the answer?

 CAN IRAN OUTLAST OILS AVAILABILITY?

STRAIT CLOSED AGAIN 

 

At least for now, the Iran war is back on, so far, Trump has been able to stop the war by agreeing to Iran's terms, or a ceasefire.  One has to wonder what happens if Iran decides not to stop on Trump's cue in the future? What is clear is that Iran still has enough capability to damage U.S. bases and the ability to damage Gulf infrastructure, if it desires. Any escalation that includes long term damage to oil producing infrastructure will bring about global economic chaos. 

 

There is much speculation that the price of oil has been manipulated, either by government action or collaboration of financial sector or a cooperation by both. It is estimated that 1.5 billion barrels of oil have been taken out of the oil market, yet the price is within single digits of the pre war price. People who understand the logistics of the oil markets believe there has been massive short selling to cause this to happen. Eventually this will become unsustainable, particularly if oil flows are not resumed and resumed very soon.

 

Many are warning that the global reserves, including the United States, are within weeks of being depleted. When that actually happens it will be a matter of availability, not only price. One has to wonder if this latest resumption of hostilities is a last ditch effort to force Iran to give up control of the strait of Hormuz. Iran understands, that without this leverage, they will be vulnerable to long term economic coercion. Iran needs to stake its existence on retaining control over the strait, it is that simple. Trump needs to have the strait open to avoid global economic catastrophe and it needs to happen very soon. 

 

Military action by either the use of nuclear weapons or a massive ground action, may not result in an increase in oil flow, but the end of oil flowing for the foreseeable future. More military action is a huge gamble. The alternative is to  give up control of the strait to Iran and Oman, which will change the political reality of the whole region, but will allow the continuation of the economic health of the globe.  It is massive change to world political order with either outcome, the consequences of a poorly thought out war.

 

 

 

21st. century, war with no end in sight.

 TRUMP TRAPPED IN IRAN, MORE ENDLESS WAR

WEST SELF DESTRUCTS IN QUEST FOR  SUPREMACY 

 

It is becoming clear that Trump can not exit the latest Mideast war, just as his predecessors. The U.S. has had large numbers of assets in the region for more than a year and has been engaging in hostilities for over 4 months.  While there are a series of ceasefires and breaks, mostly to regroup and build up limited munitions, this war can now be expected to go on for the rest of Trump's presidency. Trump's domestic agenda is dead and it is now clear his enemies have prevailed. 

 

Trump has no choice but to stay and continue this war or go home, it is that simple. Either choice is viewed as a loss for the U.S. and for Trump personally. This is now Trump's war, in fact, Israel is content to keep killing in Lebanon, Gaza and the west bank, while Trump and the U.S. flounder around in Iran. A remarkable end to Trump's hope to "Make America Great Again" 

 

The same is happening in Ukraine, a U.S. project from the start, now a 4 year conflict, sapping the resources of all of western Europe and Russia and devastating Ukraine, with no end in sight. Europe bloviating about war with Russia in 2030, attempting to build a military to fight that war.  Maybe Russia will eventually believe them and decide, why wait until they actually build such an army and get it over with now? Incredibly they are encouraging German rearmament and encouraging transitioning their dying auto factories to transition to building weapons. Are they hoping they can have a redo of WW2 between Russia and Germany, they better be careful, who knows who a rearmed Germany would view as its biggest enemy.

 

In the U.S. we hear plans of transitioning auto plants for more war production. Do they now believe only massive war can save the economy? All these new armies both in Europe and the U.S. will need lots of warm willing  bodies. They may be harder to come by than more weapons, unless the world economy crashes and the military is the employer of last resort. 

 

While we hear of record numbers on wall street, mostly due to AI speculation, the real world lives on food and energy, both now expected to become far more scarce as war both in Russia and the gulf will cause diminished supplies. It now seems almost impossible to dodge that combined speeding bullet. 

 

One has to objectively ask, was Russia a real threat to the existence of Europe and U.S. and the same can be asked about Iran?  I suspect the biggest threat to both is the lust for  world domination that is likely to accomplish what neither Russia or Iran could.

 

 

 

Time to end ethanol in gas not increase it.

 TRUMP TO PUSH INCREASE IN ETHANOL IN GAS

DAMAGE TO ENGINES OFFSETS ANY SAVINGS 

 

It is being reported that both Trump and congress are going to push to increase ethanol in gas to 15%. They claim that it will reduce the cost of fuel, but I find that unbelievable. It  doesn't make sense that producing corn, fermenting it and then distilling it is cost effective for a fuel additive. An additive that makes small engine maintenance a costly necessity. It will also increase problems for all vehicles especially if not driven daily.

 

The reality is American farmers have now become addicted to ethanol subsidies and politicians view ethanol as a vote getter. It raises the cost of food and also increase maintenance cost to vehicles. 

 

I at one time was constantly disassembling the carburetors on all my small engines for cleaning, I have since switched to ethanol free fuel, at higher cost, and have not had any problems for years. If ethanol fuel is left in carburetors for an extended time they actually can destroy the carburetor.

 

While my vehicles seem to run OK, I have to wonder what the long term effects will be on those engines and fuel systems, especially when I do not drive every day. Raising the percent to 15 % is an obvious political ploy to gain votes, it has no redeeming value to vehicle owners or anyone who runs gas engines.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trump says done with MOU, but!

 U.S. RETALIATES FOR IRANIAN ATTACKS IN STRAIT

NEGOTIATIONS WILL CONTINUE 

 

During a press conference with the NATO head, Trump stated he was done with MOU with Iran and continued to label the Iranians as untrustworthy, despicable and that he doesn't like them. While all that may be true, we can expect negotiations to continue and that an all out breakout of war is unlikely.  In fact, the strikes on ships is a form of negotiation by Iran in making it clear that they do not expect to give up control of the strait of Hormuz. 

 

Rutte, the head of NATO praised Trump in a slavish manner in any way he could, hoping to gain support for the war in Ukraine, while Trump kept bringing up Greenland, desiring NATO support for its acquisition. Maybe Trump would support a trade of U.S. support in Ukraine for Greenland? 

 

Trump dismissed Netanyahu's desire that Trump not supply weapons to Turkey, now on Israels list of possible targets in the future. 

 

Everyone wants U.S. military support for their ambitions, support that is now stretched way beyond its real capabilities, both financially and materially.

 

While many still want a rekindled war with Iran it is increasingly unlikely as oil reserves globally continue to decline and Iran is unified in its position as never before. A return to all out war would lead to global economic crisis and also a possible negative military  result. It may just fester on as is for the foreseeable future. 

 

While the Ukraine war continues, it is unlikely that support for this war is without limits, even for the European NATO members.  We can expect no conclusions to be made anywhere for the rest of the summer.

 

 

 

 

Big questions about Charlie Kirk trial.

 FAMILY SAVED SUSPECTS LIFE

BULLET, RIFLE AND SUPPOSED CONFESSION 

 

The trial for the alleged killer of Charlie Kirk is now about to begin. While details about the evidence are being suppressed, as is the often the case, what is known raises a lot of questions. 

 

First the video that is supposed to show the shooter exit the the top of the building and is supposed to show a rifle, does not such thing, there is no rifle that is visible. We are also told that the rifle was disassembled and brought to the scene inside the pants of the suspect. This is a Mauser 98 with a scope mounted, very unlikely, especially for a thin person in jeans and shirt.

 

Then the bullet supposedly fired from a 30-06 at less than 150 yards.  The big question is not the shot, a relatively easy shot from a rested position, but the bullet failed to exit, almost an impossibility, unless it it some kind of special projectile. Slow motion video of a soft ball bulge on impact but a failure to exit is incomprehensible from any normal store bought ammunition for a 30-36. I have observed 100's of deer shot with everything from  6mm to large weapons and it is unlikely that any round from a 30-06 would not exit were Kirk was shot. In fact, videos of the entrance wound appear a lot large than .308 diameter more like 45 or larger. We are already hearing about strong bones and bullets do things that are not calculable, in fact, that is just the opposite, bullets of certain weight and density do very predictable things. Supposedly the empty case was still in the rifle along with other unfired rounds,  they can be compared.

 

We never heard about the diversions by several people in the audience during the shooting even claiming that they had shot Kirk.

 

Then there is the supposed emailed confession that seems to be very vague and its source is questionable.

 

We can speculate that his suspects family, by convincing him to turn himself in, have saved his life, at least to have a trial. It seems the suspect has not spoken or answered any questions, we can assume we will get to hear the other side of this story. It will be interesting to hear the explanations for these questions. 

 

If anyone in this jury has any serious experience with firearms  it is very possible to not get a guilty verdict in this trial. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Russia accelerates in Ukraine.

 RUSSIA ADVANCING ON ALL FRONTS

NATO MONEY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH 

 

It is clear that the Russia has stepped up its pressure in Ukraine. It started with massive aerial  attacks in most of eastern Ukraine, has put out of commission most of the gas stations, cut off energy supplies to Karkiv and is advancing at a quickening pace in every area of conflict. It is becoming clear that the internal pressure on Putin to get this conflict over with is having an effect.

 

While Ukraine continues to offer strong resistance, without some sort of game changing situation it now looks like it's days are numbered , even though this could go on for many more months. 

 

We can expect that this week's NATO meeting will be dominated by the Ukraine situation, we can expect to see calls for more money and more weapons, but what Ukraine needs is more manpower, it does seem that Ukraine is running out of manpower. One would expect that even mercenary soldiers may be hard to come by at this point.

 

While the EU countries continue to talk about war with Russia and increase spending on weapons, they have little in the way of manpower. We can expect that attempting to raise an army will be politically difficult with the fragile political environment. They also want a commitment from the United States before they attempt any intervention in Ukraine. The U.S. still has troops in the middle east and  a shortage of munitions, so it is doubtful that any real commitment is possible. 

 

It also appears that there are no real negotiations possible, it seems that most of the good will in negotiations in Ukraine have evaporated. it will most likely be some sort surrender that will end this war.