Election day, Iran war will overshadow everything.

 REPUBLICANS WILL DENY WAR WAS THE CAUSE

DEMOCRATS WILL CREDIT THEIR SUPERIOR POLICIES 

 

We will soon see just how bad the election results will be for Republicans.  Then we will be bombarded with all the reasons for the losses. Then of course if it is not a real bloodbath, they will find cause to celebrate. The Republicans are going to have losses, it is just how many.

 

I suspect much of this vote will be based on the vote against, or vote never cast, against the war in Iran. If the whole Iran thing would be stripped out of history we would probably have a reasonably good economy, low inflation, reasonable energy and food prices.

 

The majority  support dealing with illegal immigration and the changes to the tax laws should be a positive for many people especially for hourly workers.

 

Trump's original policy of using tariffs to rid unfair trade protectionism from trading partners, morphed into using trade as a political weapon to gain support for war in Ukraine and Iran. These policies have hurt the domestic economy, as much as those it targeted.

 

During Trump's first term he avoided war for 4 years,  in his second he has embraced war and threats of war as the base of his foreign policy. While some Republican elitist loved that approach and others were pressured to support it, elected Republicans will understand today how the public viewed these policies. 

 

Democrats will credit all their victories, if that is the case, as a stamp of approval of their proposed policies, the same polices that have been the reason for their decline in recent years. If they win, it is not that they are now loved, it is because many feel betrayed by those they supported in the past.

 

No w we can observe tomorrows analysis by both sides, that is if we are not distracted by more war with Iran. 

 

 

 

 

One day to elections, Two to War?

 MOST EXPENSIVE MIDTERMS EVER?

CONSULTANTS AND POST OFFICE BIG WINNERS 

 

Only one more day of mailers,  TV ads and cell phone messages, hopefully we will get substantial pause before we start the next political season. It appears to have been a boom year for all those who put together political mailers, those big glossy ones may cost near $2 each. Most of this is to target 15% of the vote, we can expect most will still vote their party.  Turnout is the big key to this election, there is little to vote for, mostly votes will be motivated by the against crowd. Only one more day to see if this deluge of persuasion was worth it.

 

I suspect that if political contributions were limited to donations from within the candidates district, it would be a big first step to controlling campaign finance extremes.

 

While we hopefully will have a lull in political campaigning,  the war campaign will continue. Media and other attempts to convince the population that war is righteous and necessary will continue. Of course, the money generated by war will far exceed political campaigns, but both are a rat hole of lost revenue and someone assets. None of it will in the long run make our lives better. 

 

While there is still talk about some sort of peace, it is just talk. there will be war, and it will continue until someone or both sides can no longer financially or politically continue.  I suppose, that if AI would make it possible to mute all political and war messaging it would be big winner. 

 

Lets pray that we will have some quiet for awhile and that the death and destruction will come to an end. 

 

 

 

Politicians ready for more war, Military not so much?

 WILL POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS OVERRIDE MILITARY ADVICE?

NO CONSENSUS ON PLAN OF ACTION? 

 

Everyone now assumes a resumption of attacks on Iran will be coming very shortly after the midterm elections. If so, it will be very soon after, as possible efforts to stop another attack may grow with time.

 

Whether from leaks or other calculations, it is now assumed that there will be another effort to take out the current leadership in Iran, a hobbling of the Iranian economy by destroying economic infrastructure and even possibly using ground troops to take control of the strait of Hormuz. A very ambitious plan, that is supposed to be very quick and consummated in just a few days. 

 

There is plenty of evidence that this is underway by asset movements and military preparations. It would be a joint Israeli and US campaign.

 

It is also evident that there is lots of doubts about this within both the Israeli and US military. Netanyahu may feel that another round will insure his being able to gain support for a coalition to keep him in power and Trump needs to end this conflict one way or another.

 

There are talks going on between the gulf countries and Iran and one has to wonder if they have the influence to stop such an attack, or is their opinion and concerns no longer relevant.

 

There is one small last hope that all this preparation is all a bluff to bring about Iranian submission, but it is a very small hope. 

 

I expect we will know the answer in possibly days rather than weeks.

 

 

 

 

 

Israeli election, Revealing, dismal future for minority voters.

 CLAIMS OF ARAB CITIZENS STEALING ELECTION

NETANYAHU LIKELY TO REMAIN "KING OF ISRAEL" 

 

While the votes are still being counted, it is clear that no candidate will win a majority with its present coalition. So one side or the other will need to get some part of the others coalition to switch sides. The other alternative would be to add one of the Arab citizen blocks to break the deadlock. Both side have indicated that will never happen.

 

Netanyahu is demanding that the Arab citizens votes be investigated, claiming irregularities including "illegal software" used to get out the vote. 

 

The Arabs seem to have won between 16 and 19 seats of 120 seats, giving them the opportunity to have some say in future decisions. The narrative coming out from politician indicates that their future is bleak rather than promising, It should be expected that they will now be targeted for retaliation for actually engaging in the democratic process and making life more difficult for the ruling class. From what is being said it may be the last election that they will be allowed to participate. 

 

The only difference between the leading candidates is that the opposition would strive to improve the image of Israel to the rest of the world. Actual policy seems to be the same.

 

Trump has weighed in insisting that extremist Ben Gvir not be  part of any future government, that may not be mathematically impossible, unless he actually agrees to not participate, an unlikely prospect. 

 

We can expect the deal making and maneuvering to continue and Netanyahu is the most skilled and experienced  in getting what he wants. Is he the warrior King the population has been waiting for all these years?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hoping to gain advantage, while talking peace.

 RELYING ON TECHNOLOGY TO NEUTRALIZE IRAN

WE WILL SEE WHAT 6 MONTHS OF PROBING HAS PRODUCED

 

With elections soon to be in the past, we can expect another round of hostilities with Iran. It may be the last one, as it is doubtful that another major offensive can be mustered. Economic conditions may very well override military action after this next go around.

 

While we have heard over 6 months of new deals, expected collapse of Iran and a host of narratives it was all a delaying tactic to figure out how to destroy Iran without being destroyed or bring9ng about global economic collapse. 

 

We have witnessed repeated probes, small attacks and jets running near Iranian airspace, all in an attempt to gain intelligence as to the location of their capabilities and also a hope to develop counter measures to neutralize the accuracy of their expected response. 

 

Iranian responses during the war were devastating to US bases and radar in the region, coupled with a shortage of interceptors, brought about the pause in hostilities under the pretext of negotiations. It was more about surviving and repositioning to fight another day.  

 

Every time Iran turns on it radar for its air defenses it become identifiable and vulnerable.  There are indications Iran has taken enormous punishment while protecting its air defenses,  saving them for the final conflict.

 

The US and Israel have been surprised by the accuracy of Iran's missiles it is much improved from the first go around in 2025 and we can expect they are hoping to find a way to interfere with this accuracy. No one doubts that Russia and China have aided Iran in perfecting this accuracy and also improving their air defenses. Much like Ukraine it is an opportunity to test equipment and gain intelligence on their opponents.

 

It is likely the much anticipated attack on Iran has not happened because the US has not been confident that it has overcome the problems with an all out war with Iran, if they had it would have happened long ago. 

 

It seems that military leaders in both Israel and the US have been less confident than their leaders, but economic and political considerations may now make a decision even without that confidence.

 

 

 

 

Will foreign policy change after election?

 ELECTIONS UNDERWAY IN ISRAEL

DID IDF DEFY NETANYAHU? 

 

Elections are underway in Israel, results should be available by this evening here. It is unlikely to make any difference in foreign policy, but it may indicate that some are hoping for an effort to restore the Israeli image. 

 

There are reports from many places that the IDF refused to attack Iran by order of Netanyahu, it would have caused an internal  crisis for being an election ploy. I am sure we will hear more about this, depending on the election results.

 

Big meeting in Tehran yesterday between Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, supposedly to encourage Iran to put limits on Yemen, I suspect they talked about much more, the upcoming escalation could destroy the economies of all of them. While Yemen is allied in many way with Iran, they are not Iran's proxy, only an understanding between Saudi Arabia and Yemen will end this current conflict. Saudi Arabia started this current outbreak of the over a decade of fighting,  Yemen wants an end of the  blockade by the Saudi's. 

 

One week to the midterm elections,  we can expect a resumption in the war with Iran and all the accompanying consequences, no matter the outcome. The only thing that can stop the next round is push back from the gulf countries or Israel. 

 

We can expect with the elections over, there will be little restraint by Trump for the reminder of his term. Expect executive orders, lawsuits with drawn out legal disputes, but not really any change of foreign policy direction. 

 

Tomorrow, everyone will start talking about 2028.  

 

 

 

 

 

If Russia succeeds, Ukraine mineral leases will be void.

 UK'S 100 YEAR LEASES WORTHLESS

SAME FOR FRANCE AND US

 

While the Ukraine/Russia war continues, the end result is beginning to be in sight. It appears that Russia will have successfully incorporated at least 4 oblasts and Crimea into Russia. These regions are made up of majority Russian people and also the regions with the most natural resources. These regions are also the industrial regions that will be part of the Russian federation. 

 

In early 2025 the UK signed a 100 year agreement concerning access to the mineral resources. this led to Trump saying me too and signing a similar agreement. It can be assumed that since Zelensky was not constitutionally a legal elected President according to Ukraine's constitution, the agreements will be void even if Ukraine should retain those areas. We can assume Russia will never consider those agreements, if they are in control of those regions.

 

Zelensky won the 2019 election and was supported by the UK, the US supported Poroshinko, much of this was  jockeying for who would have control after the war. It is looking like neither will be able to defend their long term rights to Ukrainian minerals, at least not where most of the minerals exist.

 

Russia's resources will also not be in the West's control and may not even be available, while Germany and others are talking about purchasing Russian energy, it is not clear that Russia will be able to satisfy their demand, as it has long term commitments to its new buyers in China and India.

 

It could be expected that any agreement for Russian energy will hinge on the EU  assuming the cost of repairing the pipelines and maintaining them in the future. Russia is in the process of building pipelines supplying energy to the east and south. 

 

Control of Middle East oil is still not clear,  or if the war escalates, will there be any oil out of the region for some time. Can the US continue to control the oil out of Iraq and Syria without a massive rebuilding of bases in the region?  Does Israel really have the capacity to take the place of the US in the region? Can Israel expect the same same level of support from the US in the future? We can expect changes in US support in the area, due to economic and political considerations at home.

 

Both the Ukraine and Iran war seem to be turning points in the present world order, the hope is that it can be accomplished without destroying the economies and also the populations of the globe.