Eurasian realignment accelerates.

IS US POLICY FORCING REALIGNMENT?

CHINA SAYS NO TO SANCTIONS 

 

In the last week it appears that huge changes in the realignment of nations in west Asia is underway, In fact possibly extending far beyond west Asia. Whether intentional or not, it appears these changes are actually being accelerated by US policy in the region. 

 

Today, Pakistan's Asim Munir and a large delegation is traveling to Tehran. Many report that this is an attempt to restart negotiations with Iran but many conclude that it will include far more topics that may not be what the US assumes. 

 

One is an expected increase in trade between Pakistan and Iran, contrary to the big news expected of extensive sanctions by the US,  sanctions that will include threats to any nation who does trade with Iran.  Is Pakistan saying no to sanctions on Iran?

 

China has announced that they will not partake in any sanctions on anyone and has gone as far as to penalize any companies in China that engage in sanctions. That is very clear stand on sanctions on Iran. Will the US now impose penalties on China?

 

There is also speculation and some indication that the Mecca accord signed last week between Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan may be offered to Iran. Last weeks attack by Israel on an air base in Syria next to Turkey's border and the indication by Israel that Syria is now under their control is likely the impetus for this new expansion. There seems that there is now more countries interested in some sort of mid east NATO like effort.  

 

It seems many of the gulf countries are in quiet talks with Tehran in an effort to normalize relations in the region.

 

Trump's attempt to offer $1 billion to the head of the IRGC and the threat to demand $10 billion from South Korea has not played well anywhere. In fact China's foreign minister was in Seoul in only days after the dust up over South Korea refusing to get involved in the Iran war. It may have been the straw that has moved South Korea to reevaluate  where their future is best aligned.

 

It appears massive changes are underway, and that they are accelerating, one wonders if they can be reversed by threats of economic and military action or will this end with a complete reordering of the political landscape of the region. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

$40 Trillion debt, Trump Bank.

 TREASURY INTERVENTION, TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE 

FINANCIAL SHENANIGANS, NOT REMEDY 

 

The U.S. national debt set the new record of $40 trillion and is rising by the day. The deficit for this year is expected to top over $2 Trillion and with massive spending plans for defense and domestic programs, no matter which party is in power, can be expected to explode every year from now on, or until the whole fiasco collapses.

 

The yield on the 30 year bond is still at  5.25% and the 10 year at 4.7 % even after the treasury bought back bonds in an effort to lower the yield, buying its own debt with more borrowed money is not a solution and in today's informed world is just another sign of the unsustainability of U.S. fiscal policy. Gimmicks like "quantitative easing" may be now understood as feeble attempts to kick the can down the road. One wonders how long the road is until it ends in a cliff. The interest on the debt is now projected to be over $1.4 Trillion this year.

 

Looking at the administration and the congress there is no sign that any change of direction is coming, it is clear they will ride this dying pony until it dies. What come then is anyone's guess, but you can bet it will cost every citizen more than they can imagine.

 

Then there is the recent report that the new "Trump bank" is near approval.  It will not be a traditional bank, but a vehicle to administer the new "Stable coin".  Stable coin was sold as an effort to increase the ability of Federal government to fiance the debt by exchanging every US. dollar for 1 stable coin which can be used for digital commerce. Each dollar will be invested in U.S. debt and the vehicle "Trump Bank, will be paid the interest on the debt as a fee for the transaction. It is just a new method of profiting from the increasing debt, just like the other big banks have been doing for years. While none of these banks invest their own money in this debt, they capture a percent of every transaction, a deal that can only be had with a cooperative effort of the government.

 

Contrary to the narrative, this is why the rest of world is attempting to free itself from the dollar and move to some new system that is sustainable. Everyone tied to this unsustainable spiral will be damaged  when it all implodes.

 

 

 

 

Ukraine war, Drone war laboratory.

 RUSSIA AND UKRAINE, THE BEST DRONE WARRIORS

DAILY EVOLUTION AND ADAPTATION  

 

Ukraine's soldiers were the first to, by necessity, improvise the use of drones. At first they were cheap Chinese drones with improvised grenades and artillery shells strapped on them. The Russians had drones but their use was limited at first, they primarily relied on artillery warfare and drones for reconnaissance. Today both sides launch hundreds or even thousand of drones a day.

 

Russia may have started out slow, but has improved dramatically, not only with drones but in electronic counter measures.  One side gets a temporary advantage and then the other side quickly adjusts or adapts, this has been going back and forth continuously. The battlefield today is in reality  predominately a drone war, it has kept Ukraine in this fight for much longer than any other tactic.

 

In recent weeks Ukraine has been successful in damaging Russia's oil facilities, gas stations and other oil infrastructure, along with damage to ships in the Azov sea. Russia responded by in effect making Odessa and other Black sea ports inoperable. They have also destroyed almost all the refueling stations east of the Dneiper river.  While Ukraine has created lots of damage in recent days Russia has adapted and very few of Ukrainians drones have survived to their targets, Ukraine will now need to also adapt.

 

Russia acquired drones from Iran and then improved them dramatically and now has an ability to produce large numbers of drones. Drones are now becoming, at least for now, a major piece of offensive munitions.

 

Recently the U.S. played drone war games with a Ukrainian team and lost dramatically every time.  Not surprising, as Ukraine and Russia are now the best and most experienced at Drone warfare.

 

The U.S. has lost over 1/4 of their very expensive reaper drones in the Iran conflict, it will require much rethinking into its vulnerabilities.

 

Drones have made many expensive and over engineered equipment obsolete and vulnerable to low cost drones. The military world is watching and it will require a huge shift in priorities.  

 

 

 

No Coalition, No Mercenaries, No credibility.

  THREATS AND BLUSTER NO LONGER WORK

TIME TO SUCK IT UP AND DO THE RIGHT THING

 

The effort to recruit either a coalition of the willing or mercenaries seems to have come up empty. The Kurds said no long ago, and those who considered it were already attacked by Iran. The Syrian ex ISIS was informed by Iran to not think about it and it seems they are not interested. Possible unhappy factions in Baluchistan are out, either by good analysis or with the help of Iran. South Korea suffered the wrath of Trump by saying no to any involvement in this fiasco. The Saudi's have suffered by agreeing to attack Iraq and Yemen and may be thinking better of any more.  

 

That leaves the U.S. and Israel, same as in the beginning, except after a year of perpetual readiness, the spear is starting to melt in the gulf sun. Marines on ships for six months are not as ready as they once were and time is running out to use them at all. The economic realities cannot be postponed indefinitely and once the snow ball starts rolling it may be difficult to stop.

 

Then there is still the talk of a nuclear solution. Is the talk in itself just more bluster?  It appears Iran is not going to be intimidated into surrender and the waiting game will be as damaging to the globe as to Iran, as will further conventional warfare.

 

Then there is Israel, likely threatening the use of nuclear if Trump doesn't.  Israel probably is willing, but should understand that some third party may very well decide to end all of this in one fell swoop. The use of nuclear by the U.S. may be another matter and the preferred route. Trump's dilemma is growing, desperation is apparent, there is no easy way out and the clock is ticking.

 

 

 

Logistical problems of the Iran war.

 THE PROBLEMS WITH A 10,000 MILE AWAY WAR

SUPPLY IS MONUMENTAL UNDERTAKING 

 

The recent revelations about the difficulties on the Abraham Lincoln have brought the difficulties of the supplying the necessary materials to the region to the surface. Iran is over 7000 miles from California in a straight line and all those supplies have to come from the U.S. mainland at some point. Of course we have bases in Hawaii, Philippines and Japan, but it is still a massive undertaking. Most supplies have to be transported by ship. 

 

The U.S. main base in the gulf region was in Bahrain the headquarters of 5th fleet. It was evacuated within days of the onset of conflict and no longer is able to be used. This leaves Diego Garcia 2500 miles from Iran. I recall that the British confiscated the Island from the locals in the late 1960's and turned it over to the U.S. to be used as a base. The Navy scuttlebutt at the time was that it was going to be pivotal as the focus was shifting from southeast Asia to the middle east. Interesting that this was way before  the Islamic revolution Saddam Hussein, or other issue in the middle east.

 

Diego Garcia is 5200 miles from Japan, 3600 miles from the Philippines, 8900 miles from Hawaii. Ships like supply vessels usually travel at around 20 miles an hour. The distances are not in a straight line and have many tuns and detours.

 

While Navy warships can be resupplied at sea it is confined to food, fuel and items that can be moved ship to ship. Munitions, particularly missiles, have to be resupplied  in port.  With the closest base now 2500 miles away it is massive undertaking and very costly. 

 

Aircraft logistics are also a massive undertaking.  Iran is near 1000 miles from Israel and Jordan, this is were most of the land aircraft and tankers have been relocated, as gulf bases have been severally damaged. All offensive aircraft must be refueled once incoming and once outgoing in the air, as the fuel range is near 600 miles. Aircraft carriers are positioned as far as 600 miles away and also need in air refueling. Most of the defensive  missiles have been moved around Israel and Jordon to protect these tankers and aircraft.

 

 The long range radar  stations have all been destroyed and are being replaced by airborn AWAC aircraft. The warning times for incoming missiles is now only minutes for bases in Israel and Jordon. 

 

It now becomes more clear to why Russia has not moved deep into Ukraine as it has its logistical support within only miles of its supplies. For Ukraine it is 800 miles from Poland to the front

 

Logistics is always a great part of any conflict. in a attrition war it can be the deciding factor. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The U.S. has lost internal control of its future.

 CHANGES WILL NOT COME FROM THE ELECTORAL PROCESS

OUTSIDE FORCES WILL FORCE REAL CHANGES

 

We now hear of the great changes coming from a midterm election and then of course 2028. The direction of the country is no longer governed by elections and thoughtful decisions, it is going to be governed by the consequences of decades of irresponsibility and past decisions. Decisions not made by citizens or in the best interest of the country, but decisions made by numerous groups of special interests who have sown the seeds of the country's demise. The country will survive, but it may be decades for it to recover to a sound, stable and prosperous future.

 

I am sure many will dismiss such speculation as just doom and gloom appraisals of the situation, but it is clear the foreign policy of this country has been dictated by others, rather than the people or even its elected officials. It seems presidents are allowed to whipsaw the internal domestic politics, but foreign policy and the direction of the country is uniform and the same no matter election outcomes. The midterms and the 2028 election will be very anticlimactic and will have no effect on the real direction of the country.

 

The Democrats, due to their embrace of mediocrity, literally do not have any candidates qualified to lead or bring any vision for the future. We will see a domestic agenda of a move to more socialism, more spending, more debt and still war in numerous places.

 

The Republicans will be unable to shake themselves of the control of donors and those who believe we can still force the world to submit to our diminishing power.  More spending, more debt and war in numerous places.

 

The country is on a rail to its demise financially and politically and with the present debate of deciding if nuclear weapons are now the last ditch  method to enforce submission, it may all  make irrelevant any dog and pony show election distraction.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Are we destroying Navy morale?

 250 DAYS AT SEA IS UNBEARABLE

GOOD LUCK WITH NAVY RECRUITMENT

 

We are sometimes reminded of the horrors of crossing the Atlantic in sailing ships, Columbus,  the Pilgrims and others, their voyage lasted between 28 and 50 days. While today it is much safer than in those days,  time on the water is an exhausting affair.

 

I have spent as many as 90 and 120 days at sea and as young person it was a very depressing and overwhelming affair. Usually fresh water is rationed, hence the term,"Navy Showers", eggs that are 90 days old, safe, but not very appetizing. It is a test of endurance and possibly more so without a clear mission and objective.

 

The recent revelation about the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln is something that should not be happening, similar problems arose with the Gerald Ford with stories of internal sabotage etc. With eleven carriers, why have they not being rotated in a sensible humane way? It seems most of the others are in port, under repair and one wonders if they actually have crews to man all these carriers. 

 

This is an aircraft carrier and I suspect the same problems, but worse, are happening on the other smaller ships, which are not as comfortable or have the same quality of supplies as the the big ships. No one has mentioned that the climate this time of year in that region is often 120 degrees. One has to wonder if the air conditioning can keep up? 

 

I recall being at sea for months and the talk of sabotage or mutiny soon become commonplace, although none ever happened. Twice that time at sea is not really understandable or comprehensible. We can expect that it will have a long term effect on many of these sailors, their reenlistment rate will undoubtedly decline and when they hit  port, some will not return.

 

A similar abuse of the reserve forces in the other gulf wars I suspect has had lasting effects on recruitment. Many reservists, there for an existential threat to the nation, were called up for  1 year and sometimes multiple 1 year call ups, resulting in loss of homes, due to foreclosure, wives and families. Their lives were damaged sometimes irreversibly.

 

The repercussion of this war and other preceding wars is having lasting effects on the nation in more ways than can be predicted.