Russian attrition strategy coming to an end?

 PREPARES TO STRIKE UKRAINE SUPPLIERS 

INTERNAL PRESSURE FORCING CHANGE IN STRATEGY

It is now becoming evident that the rumors concerning a change of strategy by Russia in the Ukraine conflict is underway. Yesterday, Ukraine was hit by over 1600 aerial attacks that stretched all across the country, hitting military and logistics targets. 

The pressure to bring this conflict to a close has been going on for years, It was in full display when former head of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin marched on Moscow in June  2023 to force a change to a more intense effort. With the recent coordinated attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, more intense threats of war by NATO members and even drone attacks originating from some NATO member territory, it does appear that this change of strategy is now underway. The Latvian government is collapsing as a result of its allowing Ukrainian drones to target Russia from its soil.

While an increase in the intensity of the attacks on Ukraine seems to be underway,  that is not all, it is also being voiced by many in position of influence inside the government that it can be expected that those NATO countries that are supplying long range missiles to strike Russia will be soon targeted with conventional weapons if they do not cease. It is expected that their military manufacturing will be the target. The proposals also are considering the use of limited nuclear weapons if conventional weapons do not bring about an end to the supplies of long range missiles to Ukraine.

In recent months some NATO members have escalated both their support and their rhetoric, proposing attacking and blocking Russian oil shipments and threats to block their northern nports, all declarations of war. It seems we are about to see if these NATO members are really ready for war with Russia.

Gabbard confirms U.S. funded 120 biolabs.

 PROMISES TO RELEASE LOCATIONS

40 BIOLABS LOCATED IN UKRAINE

Tulsi Gabbard has confirmed that there is an ongoing investigation into the U.S. funding of over 120 biolabs in other countries, including over $1 billion to the Wuhan lab on Covid gain of function research. Most of these labs did research in some sort of gain of function with numerous deadly diseases.

She has also admitted to possibly 40 labs in Ukraine that was originally labeled by the western press as Russian disinformation.

It seems the funding was provided by National Institute of Health and the Department of Defense.

There are indications that new labs have been set up in Africa.

Originally the U.S. denied that they funded any such research, but more evidence has been gathered to support that they did support such research.

The big question has always been, WHY, what is the purpose, and what use is planned for the results of this research. 

Does your federal representative represent you?

 I FEAR THEY ALL REPRESENT WASHINGTON

REFORMS NEED TO BE DEMANDED BY CITIZENS

With primaries coming up in the next few weeks and midterm elections coming in 6 months, many question if there will ever be any difference, no matter who is elected.  We hear all the campaign slogans, the diatribe against their opponent, but in reality very little changes. The biggest reason that little changes is that once elected, these representatives spend most of their time in Washington, only coming home for occasion fundraisers or photo ops. It is almost inevitable that they are soon overwhelmed by the culture of Washington, no matter their good intentions, when first running for office.

Their party and their Washington donors have much more power over them than any power in their district. That power translates into campaign money, and media image building. If there is no reform concerning our representatives there will not be any change and they will in effect just be representatives of Washington to you, rather than the other way around.

Making changes will require a steadfast demand for simple changes by you, the voters. Voters need to focus more on the overall well being of the country rather than some hope of benefits or financial incentives of bringing home the bacon. After decades of this incentive, the bacon is getting slimmer, and the debt and loss of representation is getting greater.  

Just a few simple demand by voters would be a start.

1. Limit campaign donations to only money from citizens of their district. Eliminate money from outside the district, even from  national parties. Do not vote for any representative who accepts money from foreign lobbies of any kind. We should also demand daily disclosure of  contributions on their website. 

Personally I have been a super voter for near 50 years, I fully expect that I may no longer be able to find a candidate to vote for, under these conditions, we have to start somewhere.

2. Representatives must maintain an office in their district that they occupy, not in Washington. No more wining and dining with special interests 300 days a year and only coming home for the campaign season. They can conduct business right from their office and I suspect they could even do their voting from this office. It would remove a lot of the power of parties and lobbyists. They need to represent the people of their district, that is what this job is supposed to be about. If they need to depend on the support in all ways from the citizens, they will better represent those citizens.

While there are most likely many more reforms needed, this would be a major start to really restoring our system of government as it was intended.

 

Day 74, No change in Iran non negotiations.

 NO CHANGE IN POSITIONS SINCE BEGINNING OF WAR

BEST DEAL WAS REACHED IN GENEVA

Sending messages back and forth with the same ultimatums and demands is not negotiations, there is no movement to end this Iran conflict.  It has been reported that the best deal was achieved in Geneva when Iran agreed to most parts of the nuclear deal and the war began the next day. We should not expect that any negotiated peace is possible at this point. It seems there is probing attacks and some sort of effort to find a weak spot in Iran in the hope of some decisive military action,  an action to defeat Iran without collapsing the world economy. 

Trump is off to China to meet XI, unless war resumes, I wonder if there is really anything to talk about? We will soon be at an impasse with China, especially with the continuous trash talk coming out of Washington.  The reality is that contrary to the narrative about China needing access to the U.S. market, it will soon be true that they will no longer need that access, but can the U.S. survive without the products now made in China? As for cutting off their energy from the Gulf, don't underestimate China's ability to increase its moves to other forms of energy and also increase access to Russian oil.

Rumors are increasing of a decisive event building internally in Ukraine, coupled with other reports that Putin has finally been convinced by his right wing to get this conflict over with quickly. A combination of internal turmoil and outside escalation at the same time?

Financial problems in the Gulf countries, who have massively increased their debt in an effort to diversify away for dependence on oil, but insured by oil revenues that no longer exit. The fear is that they will need to start liquidating their U.S. holdings, already causing some private equity firms to limit withdrawals. The U.S. treasury it seems is hoping to rescue them rather than let their liquidations start a slide in asset prices. Can the  U.S. treasury prop up any more, when it is having a hard time doing the same at home? 

Something has to give soon, oil needs to flow or increased prices and actual shortages will inevitably cause liquidations of other assets, once started, it may be impossible to stop.

Are Plug in EV's soon obsolete?

 CHINA AUTOMAKERS BECOMING INNOVATIVE LEADERS

BECOMING THE DOMINANT GLOBAL AUTOMAKERS

Chinese automakers, now producing 35 million vehicles in 2025, are also becoming leaders in innovation. It seems the innovations are moving so fast that within only a few years older models are looking obsolete. China is the largest producer of electric vehicles. It is also the largest producer of vehicles, 35 million,  with the U.S. second at 10 million and Japan third at 6.2 million. China exported 8.3 million vehicles with the largest markets Mexico, Russia, UAE and the UK. China also exported over 500,000 used vehicles. Canada is expected to allow a test import of 50,000 cars in the near future.

They are manufacturing small electric city cars with 300 mile range for near $10,000 up to exotic cars with 1200 hp competing with the Italian sports cars for under $100,000. 

Their latest innovations are a BYD hybrid that uses a super efficient gas motor rated at 46% efficiency that eliminates the transmission, which uses lots of power, and the engine runs a generator system that runs the car electrically until it get up to highway speed, then switches to low RPM direct engine drive. It is rated to deliver around 85 miles per gallon. This translates to a range for the vehicle of 1300 miles. The average efficiency of other vehicles is near 30%. 

Dongfeng company has stated that they have produced a new engine at over 48% efficiency that will produce 94 miles per gallon with a Hybrid driveline. 

Not much feedback is available on the maintenance and realizability of these cars, but when the EU and NATO forced BMW, VW and Mercedes to suspend car exports to Russia, the Chinese quickly replaced those cars. While Russians were apprehensive it seems they are becoming satisfied with their new Chinese autos.

It is not expected that Chinese cars will ever be imported into the US, but the rest of the world will be a massive market for Chinese cars. There are reports of Chinese cars showing up in Texas in greater numbers, driven by Mexican commuters. 

Day 70, Indications of war far into the future.

 SENATE DEFENSE BUDGET HEARING INDICATES MORE WAR

PERSIAN GULF STRAIT AUTHORITY UNVEILED

The Persian gulf war ceasefire seems to be on life support and hostilities could commence at any time. It appears that war will be the status for many months, if not years to come. 

Yesterday, Iran unveiled its new "Persian Gulf Strait authority", PGSA, to administer traffic through the strait of Hormuz, It defines the corridors and conditions complete with application forms. We will see if it will be able to allow traffic through the strait.

The recent Senate hearings on the new Defense Budget to $1.5 trillion seems to have many Senators, both Democrat and Republican, ecstatic at the hope of government money flowing into their states. We can expect that massive increase will be approved. The hearings narrative is that the United States now faces threats from many places and national security must be the most important thing on the agenda. It now appears that the Trump administration will soon confine its focus to foreign relations and war on many fronts. 

Discussion in the hearings on the need to implement the "Defense Production Act" and use corporations to increase military supplies including Detroit Auto makers. It is also planned to replace the dwindling energy supplies out of the gulf with U.S. LNG. creating excitement from Alaska's senators. One must ask, is the U.S. about to go on a total war footing? 

It may be that the status of the strait of Hormuz is exactly what is desired, replacing Persian gulf oil with U.S. LNG and thereby cutting off energy to those who we want to contain and control, and insure the payments in U.S. dollars.

Also part of the new budget is starting in December 2026, the Selective service registration will be automatically completed by information gathered from existing data. It will apply to all males between 18 and 26. 

It is clear that dominating the globe will require many more ships and sailors.

Day 69, More fake peace announcements?

 OIL PLUMMETS AGAIN ON PEACE PLAN

AMAZING THAT THIS STILL WORKS

On Sunday we saw the new plan to open the strait of Hormuz, it lasted one day. It was then followed by an announcement of an imminent peace deal, that only the U.S. knows anything about. It was followed by large drop in the oil futures market, just like after every other imminent peace deal. 

Project freedom lasted one day because Iran struck the UAE oil terminal that bypasses the strait of Hormuz and directs oil to the Red sea. It is reported that Saudi Arabia and Qatar also complained that it was going to risk damage to their oil facilities. Saudi Arabia yesterday announced it would now ban the use of its airfields and airspace for future attacks on Iran. The gulf nations understand that Iran is warning that if attacked again, they will destroy the oil production facilities in the region.

It seems there really is no progress on an end to this conflict and I doubt that Trump is that concerned if the gulf oil is taken offline permanently, except for the rise of the oil price, which would be politically damaging.  It is becoming obvious Trump believes the U.S. can supply oil to its allies if necessary and will increase the U.S. trade income.

The trade war, especially in oil, is heating up, Ukraine, with the help of the NATO, is increasing its attacks on Russian oil. Interruption of oil tankers is occurring in many places. Russia has warned Ukraine that any attacks on Moscow during their WW2 celebrations this weekend is going to result in a massive attack on Kiev, and has recommended the evacuation of civilians from Kiev. I doubt that this is an idle threat.

The increased threat to global oil supplies can be expected to result in big power direct conflict at some time, probably soon.

As for Iran, the air war has not brought about capitulation, further air war promises to bring retaliation and a further damage  to oil supplies. The attempt to capture the nuclear material failed and the attempt to open the strait also failed. Now in the 10th week, it may be an indication that this conflict may go on for many months. It is racking up enormous costs to everyone on the planet. There is no indication that either side will capitulate any time soon.