Blog Archive

Thursday, March 26, 2026

Day 27, No way out, it will get worse.

 GROUND TROOPS ON THE WAY

ONCE COMMITED, IT WILL BE A LONG WAR



It appears the war crowd has overcome the aversion to ground troops in Iran. If they go this route it can only lead to an escalation and a conflict that will last for months possibly years. Once Trump realizes he cannot save this and his political future is over,  he may very well resolve that his only hope is victory, no matter the cost.

This week is as expected will be pivotal week, if there is escalation, it will plunge the region into a disastrous situation. 

Rumblings from Iraq indicate that forces there are considering entering this war on the side of Iran. 

It is reported that there are serious political situations arising in Bahrain and Kuwait, some report that the leadership has fled to Saudi Arabia. If Saudi Arabia enters this war, Yemen will surely also become active.

Israel is turning southern Lebanon into ruble and are taking serious casualties.

No one knows what the situation is in Israel, but they are under attack daily and their economy and that of the gulf countries is at a standstill. It will be very dangerous if they run out of defensive missiles before Iran runs out of rockets. 

The continuous threats of escalation do not seem to be effective at bringing Iran into submission. The hope of an internal uprising may have been greatly exaggerated.  Iran has a 5000 year history, they do have a proud nationalist culture. In 1941 Germany invaded Russia at a time of the greatest atrocities of Stalin, far more severe than anything that has occurred in Iran. The Germans invaded with 3.8 million German and its allied forces. The Germans had the best trained, and the best equipped army in the world at the time. 2500 aircraft, 3000 tanks but in the end the Russian fought, not for Stalin, but for their country and inevitably destroyed the German army, while losing over 20 million lives.

Behind the scenes there are those rejoicing that they have now discredited Trump and possibly destroyed the movement to reform the U.S. They may have won, but the reform of the country is necessary for it to economically survive. That is a question of mathematics which cannot be overcome with narratives and wishful thinking.



Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Day 26, Phantom talks, the war goes on.

 NO INDICATION OF ANY NEGOTIATIONS

 LOTS OF TALKING, EXCEPT WITH IRAN


While we witnessed a temporary pause in escalation, it was not because there is actual negotiations going on with Iran. Trump claims they have agreed to no nuclear weapons, something that they agreed to in previous real negotiations, but all previous negotiations ended in attacks on Iran. Iran has made it clear that they do not expect to negotiate with the United States again, at least not until their demands are met. Those demands include an end to United States presence in the region, reparations and real non aggression guarantees in the future. Of course, that is a real impasse.

So, the war will continue, Iran will continue regulating traffic through the strait and Trump and Israel will either escalate, bring in ground troops to control the strait or declare victory and go home. One can expect that ground troops are the plan with Marines, Airborne and 2 divisions of regular army amounting to some 70,000 U.S. troops. One would expect that Israel and other gulf nations will be encouraged to put up at least an equal number. 

While we can predict lots of enthusiasm by the war crowd in Washington and Tel Aviv, it will likely result in significant casualties, a complete closing of the strait and the call for more troops or tactical nuclear weapons. Hopefully, this time, Trump will listen to U.S. military and intelligence about best options. This war will not end easily.

The geography and logistics required for an actual ground intervention is all on Iran's side. Any attempt to amass troops and materials anywhere within striking distance will be vulnerable to attack. No one believes this is a good idea.

It seems Iran has now begun to demand tolls for passage through the strait, while a humiliation to the west, it may be the lesser of two evils to the ship owners and insurance companies, the tolls may be less of an issue that the loss of revenue and the costs now being paid without any return.

As I write, I hear that over 100 missiles have been fired toward Israel, some will inevitably get through, and it appears Iran's capabilities have not been extinguished. The clock is ticking until Israel will run out of defensive missiles and that will require either a peace deal or a very dangerous escalation.




Tuesday, March 24, 2026

Is the new policy, 21st century colonialism?

AGE OLD ROUTE TO NATIONAL WEALTH

AUTHORITARIAN STATE AND RULING ELITE



If we look back to history we will see that the most powerful nations simply took what they wanted from those who had what they wanted or needed. Their policy was to conquer another nation and then demand tribute and submission to their power. This was the policy of the Assyrians, Persians, Greeks and the Romans.

The Roman empire eventually perfected that policy and ruled most of the civilized world from 27 BC to 476 AD., in the eastern Byzantine empire it continued until 1453 Ad., It was supplanted by the Ottoman empire which continued until after WW1. The Mongol empire reigned from 1209 until 1480 in the east and parts of Europe and Russia.

They all had very similar strategies, conquer the existing government, appoint a dictator or King, preferably of local descent, and enforce the taking of wealth by military power. 

In Europe, in the early modern period, the Spanish empire at one time controlled all of South America, Central America and the southwest of North America, along with colonies in Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific. it prospered by plundering the gold and silver of its conquests. It was the largest empire at the time and its influence remains today in its former foreign colonies, mostly in cultural and traditions, but not military power. Spanish is the second most dominate language in the world.

France and England were the other powerful empires, with the British empire spanning the complete globe, with very few countries not influenced by the interaction with the British empire.  All these European countries had a monarchial system of feudalism.  The ruling elite came to their position by being descendants of the ruling class. The rest of the population was barred from entering that system and was limited to maintaining the aristocracy. That was the structure of government in all the regimes in Europe. The leaders all intermarried and maintained alliances with each other. One must speculate that the early aristocracy was made up of those with wealth, or power. Once established, it was only by birth or someone who had much wealth or power.

The American revolution was the first challenge to that feudal or Monarchial system, while it could have replicated the feudal system of Europe, it choose a system of individual freedom and liberty for all to pursue their own course without being subject to a King or aristocracy. Many point to slavery as a flaw in that system, but slavery was a institution of the British Empire and to ensure the unity of the colonies during the revolution, it was an issue that would be put off until a future time. 

The United States expanded by the Louisiana purchase, from the French, incorporating the southwest of the continent by the war with Mexico, while it was a war of conquest, it was not an attempt at colonialism. The landowners kept their land and were granted citizenship. The rest of the country was concluded by the Spanish American war and the purchase of Alaska from Russia. The United States was not a colonial power in the image of European colonialism, in fact, the Monroe doctrine helped to persuade the Europeans to end their colonies in the Western Hemisphere. 

In the 19th century the United States refrained from getting involved in European affairs and the country mostly enjoyed peace and built the greatest manufacturing base in history. The country was self sufficient in all the essential needs and enjoyed the ability to improvise, invent and grow dramatically. 

When WW1 broke out, mostly from a complicated system of alliances and tension between those powers, the U.S. was coaxed into intervention in that war, helped by the financial and other interests still exerted on the country by Britain. It is evident that the former colonies of the British empire are still often influenced by the financial and political power based in the city of London, in Britain. The U.S. intervention in that war, which was not started by Germany, but who became the ultimate victim, led to WW2. The war was at a stalemate, neither side advanced for near 2 years and a peace agreement would have eventually been demanded. The U.S. intervention then led to a ceasefire or armistice, troops withdrew, and after troops returned  home a treaty was  signed,  7 months later. Its prohibitive and punishing sanctions on Germany created the eventual rise of Hitler and Nazim in Germany.

After WW1 the British and French took control of any colonies of Germany and proceeded to partition up much of the Ottoman empire, including the middle east and Africa. The British in particular remade borders and boundaries often separating cultural and religious areas in the best interest of keeping these areas divided and often in conflict. They also created new borders and countries like Iraq, and Kuwait, inserted kings and dictators who would facilitate their control, particularly in regards to oil reserves. Many of those borders still exist today and are sources of continuous conflict in Pakistan, Afghanistan, India and the middle east. The British used Famine in India and forced drug importation in China to keep control.

After WW2, with the creation of the United Nations and a system of international law, the outright policy of colonialism became out of favor, but subtle colonialism continued. India gained independence in 1947 and China 1949. Hong Kong became a colony of Britain in 1842 and in 1898 China was forced into accepting a 99 year lease. Hong Kong was partly given Chinese rule in 1997 when that lease expired. The aftermath of WW2 left the French and British unable to militarily control their colonies, independence was given to most countries in Africa and Asia, but subtle colonialism continued by the intelligence operations, economic sanctions and manipulation of currencies and election manipulation to keep leaders in power that would serve their interests. These operations continue today in Africa, the middle east and eastern Europe. Since WW2 and the lack of military power by Europeans, the U.S. has often provided the muscle to keep these colonies in check.

Directly after WW2 and the creation of the CIA, the United States began a policy of intervention in many parts of the world. The overturning of the new democratic government of Iran in 1953 at the behest of British oil interests and the CIA orchestrated Coup in Guatemala in 1954 were the first of near 60 interventions since WW2.  While many of the interventions were excused as part of the cold war and the containment of communism, the increased violence and and use of military power accelerated after the fall of the Soviet Union. 

The conflict in Viet Nam, the former French colony of Indochina from 1887 to 1954, was sold as part of the cold war and the intervention of U.S lasted from 1955 to 1975, claimed millions of Vietnamese lives and 58,000 U.S. servicemen. The war was in fact a civil war fought over the dividing of the country by a longitudinal line established by western powers after WW2. The goal was measured in body counts, rather than territory gained. It caused serious unrest in the U.S. and caused the end of conscription. It was, in effect, partly an attempt of maintaining the colonial system and the fear of communist expansion..  It ushered in a period of severe resistance to further foreign military action in the U.S. 

While the U.S. was restrained in its military intervention after Vietnam, other attempts around the world to throw off colonial rule and exploitation continued in many places.  Iraq had begun to nationalize its oil reserves in 1972, Libya in 1973-1974 and Iran nationalized its reserves in 1979. In 1980 Iraq attacked Iran and Saddam Hussein was supported and supplied by the U.S. and other western powers. This may have been the beginning of using proxy forces to avoid discontent at home for the western powers. Leaders of countries and militia or other groups can be persuaded with promises of territory or wealth. One wonders what promises were given to Saddam Hussein if he would destabilize Iran. The war ran from 1980-1988 and resulted in over 500,000 deaths, Iraq resorted to the use of chemical weapons supplied by the west. 

With the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 George Bush and others in Washington proclaimed that the U.S. was now the only remaining super power. Almost immediately the Iraq war began, after Iraq invaded Kuwait which was at one time part of Iraq and a British creation to control the oil in that region. The first gulf war may have been aided by the U.S. ambassador April Glaspie,  who informed Saddam Hussein that the U.S. would not get involved in land disputes in the middle east. This war destroyed the Iraqi military, but left Saddam Hussein with the agreement that he would allow western access to the oil.

The preparation for the first gulf war required 6 months of staging with troops and resources accumulated in Saudi Arabia, It was a massive collection of 500,000 U.S. troops. It resulted in a permanent military presence in Saudi Arabia. This presence was the impetus for the future attack on the U.S. on  9/11/2001. It was stated by Osama Bin Laden as the primary reason for the attack.  At present the U.S. maintains many bases in the region, a de facto occupation, that is opposed by the majority of the population, but not the leadership.

After the 911 attack the U.S. under George Bush 2 immediately invaded Afghanistan in an attempt to destroy Al Qaeda, much of what was the proxy force supported by the U.S. in the earlier fight with Russia in Afghanistan. This attack targeted Al Qaeda and the Taliban, the ruling party at the time.  This war lasted for 20 years and ended in 2021. The Afghans did not want to be controlled by the Russians or the Americans. Interesting that the Afghans fought 3 wars with the British empire from 1839 to 1919. They have resisted and prevailed against colonial rule for much of their modern life.

In 2003 the narrative about Iraq being involved in 911, which was not true, and the supposed possession of nuclear or chemical weapons, which was also disproven,  preceded an invasion and occupation that lasted until 2011, It resulted in Iraqi oil being placed under the control of the U.S. and the revenue banked in New York. This arrangement continues now for over 20 years. 4500 Americans and over 100,000 Iraqis died. 

In 2011 the Syrian government came under pressure by rebel groups, often financed by the west and the U.S. in particular. U.S. troops took control of the oil and denied access to the oil or the revenue to Syria. In 2020 the U.S. granted the oil concession to Delta Crescent Energy. 

In 2011 a revolution began in Libya with U.S. supported ground troops and NATO supplied air support, the oil resources have since been divided between foreign interests.

In all these conflicts proxy forces were used to assist in destabilizing these countries.

Venezuela has been producing oil since 1908, most of the concessions were gained by foreign interests, Venezuela nationalized its oil in the 1970's and paid 25% of the revenue to the concessions, this continued until 2007 when Hugo Chaves fully nationalized the oil. After sanctions and eventually an embargo in 2026, control the oil was taken  by the United States, the revenue is placed into a bank in New York and Venezuela must petition for needed funds. 

It is clear that the United states controls and reaps the revenue from the oil of Iraq, Syria and Venezuela. Libya oil revenues are shared with European powers. It is not clear who receives the benefit of these funds. I have never seen any accounting or revelation of how this money is dispersed. In fact, I have never heard anyone question this arrangement.

Most all of the contracts by foreign companies resulted in the hosting country receiving about 18 % of the revenue.  This was before  the accounting done by the foreign companies and their governments. Many of these contracts were negotiated from the early 1900's to the 1940's. Attempts to renegotiate often led to military intervention.

In Africa moves to end foreign exploitation continue and we can expect the move to reinstate foreign control of resources.

Looking at the emerging policies of the United States one must speculate that the goal is a new 21st century colonialism. The Russian/Ukraine war, a result of NATO expansion to the doorstep of Russia, which all objective historians and political analysts knew would result in Russia protecting its borders from NATO expansion and missiles. They believed that when Russia invaded they would quickly be crushed by sanctions and combined NATO aid to Ukraine, which is the proxy force used in this war.. The moment when the UK collateralized Ukrainian debt with a 99 year lease on Ukrainian resources and France attempted to do the same and then Trump quickly said me too, revealed what was really going on. Ukraine was only the first step in dismembering Russia and taking control of its resources.

There were indications early in the Trump administration that this was not a replay of the first administration. Things had changed, first we saw a new Department of War, replacing the Department of Defense, an overt indication that preemptive war may be on the horizon. Then we saw the DOGE committee saving $165 billion in the budget only to quickly add it to the defense budget without any accountability.

We listened to Marco Rubio speak in Munich were he blamed others for deindustrialization the U.S. and Europe. He went on that the U.S. would no longer be restrained by international law that has assisted in the west losing its power and wealth. He invited Europe to join the U.S. in rebuilding their power and wealth. The reality is that the new aristocracy sold the country out for the profits they reaped by buying low in the east  and selling high at home. Now that it is becoming unsustainable, a new imperialism or colonialism can keep the money flowing. 

Then we saw indications of annexing Canada and Greenland, both rich in resources without big populations or military power. This was followed with the complete embargo of Venezuela, disposing of their leader and then the taking control of the oil and deciding who it would be sold to and the money deposited again in a bank in New York. Venezuela is forbidden to buy anything that does not come from the United States, Colonialism plain and simple.

Now we have Iran, a country manipulated by the British since 1908. Intervention by the United States in 1953, overthrowing their elected leader and propping up the Shah who was a puppet of the U.S. and Britain. Trump has declared that he will name the next leader in Iran and we can expect their oil revenue will also go into a bank in New York, except for some sharing with Israel.

Israel, whose enormous economic and political influence has been instrumental in all these middle east wars, was the creation of the British Empire, possibly an intentional distraction for all the oil producers of the region. Keep them in constant chaos and war, playing each other off against the U.S. and Israel. One can only speculate that after Iran, the Gulf countries will be next, after being decimated by this war, they will be easy pickings. Israel will then share in the spoils or more likely, having served its purpose will possibly be also expendable. 

Viewing the chaos, interventions, unexplainable decisions begin to become clear when understanding the goal for the future, is a new colonialism.

Colonialism has been the path for wealth for all of recorded history, except for a brief period in the 20th century. Kings are replaced by Statism and the new aristocracy is the monied elite who could be identified as the Epstein class, just as privileged as the aristocracy of the past, not subject to the law or standards expected by the rest. One must wonder what will be the lot of the rest as this new system materializes.






Monday, March 23, 2026

Day 24, The week of decision.

 ULTIMATUMS AND RETALIATION

NETANYAHU ADVOCATES GROUND COMPONENT



This is now the fourth week of this war and it may be the time for pivotal decisions. This weekend, Trump stated it was time for the war to wind down and then hours later issued an ultimatum that the strait of Hormuz must be opened fully within 48 hours, late this evening, or the U.S. and Israel will destroy Iran's electrical power production. Iran, being predictable, threatened to destroy all electric and desalination production in the region.  This is a massive threat of escalation that if acted on will plunge the region into an economic and humanitarian disaster.

It is being reported that Israel is being selective as to how to defend  the continuing missile assaults, in an  attempt to only use interceptors on priority targets. There were damaging hits on Israel's nuclear facility at Dimona. 

Netanyahu stated that a ground component will be necessary to reach their objectives in this war. There was no elaboration on whose ground troops he had in mind and one must wonder if this is connected to Trump's talk of winding down and then escalation.  It is not clear as to who is running this war.

The Strait is open to navigation at the discretion of Iran, Japan and India and others have been given permission to navigate through the strait.

The NATO head has claimed a 22 member group is considering assisting in opening the strait, no timeline or estimation of when has been revealed.

Many are now reporting that the Gerald Ford carrier, which is now in port in Greece, has suffered from internal sabotage of clogged sewage system and then fires that required 30 hours to extinguish. Having experienced extended times at sea many years ago, it is true that it is physiologically very taxing and morale sinks very low and grumbling and frustration can become rampant. Just the strain of extended time at sea, coupled with possibly divided support for the war will require a complicated test of leadership. 

Decisions in the next few days will be pivotal on the direction of this war. There is no end in sight, it is indeed becoming a war of attrition. The economic damage to the whole region may take years to recover. The global damage will take at the least many months, that is all without further escalation. 

Note, Trump has postponed impending attacks due to claimed negotiations, Iran denies any negotiations in progress and is backed up by most knowledgeable analysts.

 

Friday, March 20, 2026

Day 21, more crises developing by the day.

 GROUND TROOPS, STRANDED SAILORS 

ESCALTION TRAP UNDERWAY


This is the beginning of the fourth week of this war and it will be a week of expected escalation and multiplying of unintended consequences. All oil tankers that left the region at the start of the war have now reached their destination. There will be very little arriving from here on out and if it opened up tomorrow it would take as much as a month to get oil moving.

The attacks by Israel and then the retaliation by Iran on Gas facilities is estimated to reduce the flow of LNG for near 5 years. This will translate into higher prices for years to come. 

To keep the flow of oil and gas moving most countries are dipping into their strategic reserves and the U.S. has actually removed the sanctions on not only Russian oil, but Iranian oil. Iranian oil exports have actually risen since this war began. 

Israeli attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, may now cause Iran to retaliate by hitting the nuclear desalination plants in Israel and the gulf. If these plants actually go off line, it will require the population to flee the region. There is not enough natural fresh water to support the populations.

There are 3200 ships stranded in the Persian gulf with 20,000 crewmembers. These ships are running out of food, water is at a minimum and it reaching a humanitarian crisis for these sailors. Most gulf countries will not allow them to dock, so they are anchored sitting still in the gulf. 

It is now assumed that there is a growing possibility of a ground attack in some way, either an attempt to capture Kharg island or secure the strait of Hormuz. It is acknowledged by military experts, that it will not be an easy operation. This would be a perfect time for Iran to allow those 3200 ships that are not loaded to exit the strait of Hormuz. This would certainly complicate any military operations for several weeks.

This is the week were the complications of this war are going to become increasingly evident. Prices have risen, but now it may begin to get out of control. All the good reports aside, Israel is going to be experiencing all kinds of problems very soon. Their economy is at a standstill and desperation will likely lead to escalation.  There is no end in sight and every day will reveal a new crisis.




Thursday, March 19, 2026

Day 20, Up the escalation ladder.

 ISRAEL BOMBS IRAN'S GAS FIELDS

IRAN RETALIATES AGAINST QATARI GAS FIELDS


Yesterday, Israel bombed Iran's gas fields, part of the largest gas field in the world, that is shared with Qatar. Iran vowed revenge by giving notice that they would respond by attacking oil and gas facilities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait and advising evacuation of specific sites, they then hit the Qatari gas facilities and it experienced serious damage, they also inflicted damage on the other sites. They clearly stated that these countries will be targets as long as they are providing the U.S. and Israel with bases used to attack Iran.

Trump warned Iran that if they persisted in targeting oil or gas facilities, the U.S. would totally destroy Iranian gas fields and that he would bar Israel from more such attacks. Israel had earlier struck major oil facilities near Tehran. It is clear that Israel is not under the control of the U.S. and has separate and distinct goals.

Israel also received increased attacks that left damage all across the country in retaliation of further assassinations and hitting the gas fields.

Gas prices immediately soared in the UK and EU and will inevitably raise prices worldwide. This war is on the verge of going completely out of control with the possibility of major power intervention.

In yesterday's intelligence briefing it was clear that the Senators wanted those questioned to answer, if they informed the president of the risks of this war. All those questioned failed to answer in one way or another. It may be that Trump's distrust of the U.S. intelligence community allowed him to depend on intelligence provided by Israel and Netanyahu. This was demonstrated by the resignation of Joe Kent. 

It is becoming clear that this war will continue for some time and that it is going to have long lasting global implications. Only Trump can end this war and it is also clear to do that he will appear to have backed down.  Trump is now caught in this war trap with no way to get out without suffering political damage and disappointing Israel. It is without a doubt the biggest challenge to his presidency and is now being tested in a way that cannot be evaded by narratives and denials. 

We are going to see if he will find some morality or principles that will allow him to end this disaster before it takes down the world economy and possibly more.



Wednesday, March 18, 2026

Day 19, settling into War of attrition.

 WHAT NOW, ESCALATION ONLY OPTION

ESCALTION THEN RETALIATION



This war is now in need of a new strategy, as it heads to the end of the third week. The U.S. and Israel both continue to bomb, the U.S. looking for military targets and Israel bent on assassination of anyone who would be a possible negotiator. It appears that this war is not a coordinated attack with common goals.  While denying it, Trump has attempted to open negotiations numerous times with third party intermediaries, he would like an off ramp. It is no secret that Israel wants to destroy Iran as viable country. Israel wants Iran to look like Libya or Gaza, a failed state unable to offer any opposition. It is clear there is no end to this war in sight. 

While much is made of the closed Hormuz straits, ships are moving out of the Persian gulf, not too many moving westward. Iran is controlling this traffic and it seems no countries have volunteered to help force it out of Iran's control. Negotiations are ongoing between shipping players and Iran to get permission to allow safe passage on an individual basis. Iran has shipped more oil this month than last month.

Israel is under extreme censorship, any photos or videos of damage will result in arrest. Damage is occurring every day, but no one can estimate how much.

Iran continues to strike U.S. military assets in the gulf countries.

The resignation of Joe Kent who served 11 tours in Mideast wars and whose wife, also a soldier,  was killed in the region. Trump best to not malign this man, this action by him will undoubtedly cost him much of his future. Some believe he may be the just the first of many and wonder what has happened to Tulsi Gabbard and other Trump supporters who desired an end to wars of choice.

It is still Israel that is in the predicament of having a closed economy, a dependence on a limited supply of interceptors and an eventual problem of recruitment and public opinion.  

The pressure on Trump to escalate this war with ground troops is going to grow by the day. While it would be costly for Iran, it would undoubtedly result in serious casualties for the U.S. Once engaged, it then could become similar to Ukraine in reverse. While much is made about the division in the Muslim world between Shia and Sunni, a ground war in the region will bring volunteers from many places. Gulf countries will have serious political problems at home if they side with the U.S. and Israel. While Muslims have disagreements between themselves none of them have warm feelings for Israel and the U.S.  A ground war could be the most unifying event for Muslims in decades.