Day 21, more crises developing by the day.

 GROUND TROOPS, STRANDED SAILORS 

ESCALTION TRAP UNDERWAY

This is the beginning of the fourth week of this war and it will be a week of expected escalation and multiplying of unintended consequences. All oil tankers that left the region at the start of the war have now reached their destination. There will be very little arriving from here on out and if it opened up tomorrow it would take as much as a month to get oil moving.

The attacks by Israel and then the retaliation by Iran on Gas facilities is estimated to reduce the flow of LNG for near 5 years. This will translate into higher prices for years to come. 

To keep the flow of oil and gas moving most countries are dipping into their strategic reserves and the U.S. has actually removed the sanctions on not only Russian oil, but Iranian oil. Iranian oil exports have actually risen since this war began. 

Israeli attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, may now cause Iran to retaliate by hitting the nuclear desalination plants in Israel and the gulf. If these plants actually go off line, it will require the population to flee the region. There is not enough natural fresh water to support the populations.

There are 3200 ships stranded in the Persian gulf with 20,000 crewmembers. These ships are running out of food, water is at a minimum and it reaching a humanitarian crisis for these sailors. Most gulf countries will not allow them to dock, so they are anchored sitting still in the gulf. 

It is now assumed that there is a growing possibility of a ground attack in some way, either an attempt to capture Kharg island or secure the strait of Hormuz. It is acknowledged by military experts, that it will not be an easy operation. This would be a perfect time for Iran to allow those 3200 ships that are not loaded to exit the strait of Hormuz. This would certainly complicate any military operations for several weeks.

This is the week were the complications of this war are going to become increasingly evident. Prices have risen, but now it may begin to get out of control. All the good reports aside, Israel is going to be experiencing all kinds of problems very soon. Their economy is at a standstill and desperation will likely lead to escalation.  There is no end in sight and every day will reveal a new crisis.

Day 20, Up the escalation ladder.

 ISRAEL BOMBS IRAN'S GAS FIELDS

IRAN RETALIATES AGAINST QATARI GAS FIELDS

Yesterday, Israel bombed Iran's gas fields, part of the largest gas field in the world, that is shared with Qatar. Iran vowed revenge by giving notice that they would respond by attacking oil and gas facilities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait and advising evacuation of specific sites, they then hit the Qatari gas facilities and it experienced serious damage, they also inflicted damage on the other sites. They clearly stated that these countries will be targets as long as they are providing the U.S. and Israel with bases used to attack Iran.

Trump warned Iran that if they persisted in targeting oil or gas facilities, the U.S. would totally destroy Iranian gas fields and that he would bar Israel from more such attacks. Israel had earlier struck major oil facilities near Tehran. It is clear that Israel is not under the control of the U.S. and has separate and distinct goals.

Israel also received increased attacks that left damage all across the country in retaliation of further assassinations and hitting the gas fields.

Gas prices immediately soared in the UK and EU and will inevitably raise prices worldwide. This war is on the verge of going completely out of control with the possibility of major power intervention.

In yesterday's intelligence briefing it was clear that the Senators wanted those questioned to answer, if they informed the president of the risks of this war. All those questioned failed to answer in one way or another. It may be that Trump's distrust of the U.S. intelligence community allowed him to depend on intelligence provided by Israel and Netanyahu. This was demonstrated by the resignation of Joe Kent. 

It is becoming clear that this war will continue for some time and that it is going to have long lasting global implications. Only Trump can end this war and it is also clear to do that he will appear to have backed down.  Trump is now caught in this war trap with no way to get out without suffering political damage and disappointing Israel. It is without a doubt the biggest challenge to his presidency and is now being tested in a way that cannot be evaded by narratives and denials. 

We are going to see if he will find some morality or principles that will allow him to end this disaster before it takes down the world economy and possibly more.

Day 19, settling into War of attrition.

 WHAT NOW, ESCALATION ONLY OPTION

ESCALTION THEN RETALIATION

This war is now in need of a new strategy, as it heads to the end of the third week. The U.S. and Israel both continue to bomb, the U.S. looking for military targets and Israel bent on assassination of anyone who would be a possible negotiator. It appears that this war is not a coordinated attack with common goals.  While denying it, Trump has attempted to open negotiations numerous times with third party intermediaries, he would like an off ramp. It is no secret that Israel wants to destroy Iran as viable country. Israel wants Iran to look like Libya or Gaza, a failed state unable to offer any opposition. It is clear there is no end to this war in sight. 

While much is made of the closed Hormuz straits, ships are moving out of the Persian gulf, not too many moving westward. Iran is controlling this traffic and it seems no countries have volunteered to help force it out of Iran's control. Negotiations are ongoing between shipping players and Iran to get permission to allow safe passage on an individual basis. Iran has shipped more oil this month than last month.

Israel is under extreme censorship, any photos or videos of damage will result in arrest. Damage is occurring every day, but no one can estimate how much.

Iran continues to strike U.S. military assets in the gulf countries.

The resignation of Joe Kent who served 11 tours in Mideast wars and whose wife, also a soldier,  was killed in the region. Trump best to not malign this man, this action by him will undoubtedly cost him much of his future. Some believe he may be the just the first of many and wonder what has happened to Tulsi Gabbard and other Trump supporters who desired an end to wars of choice.

It is still Israel that is in the predicament of having a closed economy, a dependence on a limited supply of interceptors and an eventual problem of recruitment and public opinion.  

The pressure on Trump to escalate this war with ground troops is going to grow by the day. While it would be costly for Iran, it would undoubtedly result in serious casualties for the U.S. Once engaged, it then could become similar to Ukraine in reverse. While much is made about the division in the Muslim world between Shia and Sunni, a ground war in the region will bring volunteers from many places. Gulf countries will have serious political problems at home if they side with the U.S. and Israel. While Muslims have disagreements between themselves none of them have warm feelings for Israel and the U.S.  A ground war could be the most unifying event for Muslims in decades.

Joe Kent director of National counterterrorism center resigns in protest.

 RESIGNATION LETTER FROM EARLIER TODAY

Day 17, Trump asks for help, Iran declares strait open.

 MARINE ASSAULT GROUP ON THE WAY

NO END IN SIGHT, PREPARE FOR LONG CONFLICT

Over the weekend, we see that Trump has called on other nations to send ships to help in keeping the strait of Hormuz open. At the same time Iran has declared that the strait is open to all,  except for their enemies and their allies. Chinese and Indian ships are being allowed through the strait. Iran has made it clear that prior permission is granted on an individual basis and all ships will be considered, except for U.S. and Israeli destined ships. U.S. allies ships, European,  Japan, South Korean will also be granted permission if they are paying for their oil in Yuan and not dollars. This would apply to ships carrying oil originating in the gulf countries. So, would it better to send ships to take control of the strait by force or ask permission under Iran's terms, that will now be the dilemma.

The U.S. has stated that a Marine assault force is in route to the region, most military experts believe their use would be a very risky operation and would undoubtedly result in serious casualties. If this is used to capture Kharg island it could cut off Iranian exports or it could be used to interdict oil tankers after they pass through the strait. Either action would most likely result in Iran damaging the gulf countries ability to produce and transport oil.  The U.S. may find this acceptable in that their more strategic goal is to do damage to China's economy and possibly that of other southeast Asian countries, all part of BRICS economic group.

While accusations of Russian assistance to Iran is being claimed, it is most likely that China has provided the use of their GPS system and providing targeting to Iran. This was widely known for some time, but one wonders if this is still an attempt to divide China and Russia in some way.

Iran has consistently fired 20 to 50 ballistic missiles every day, with increasing percentages of hits in both the Gulf bases and Israel.

Contrary to U.S. claims, they are not flying over Iran, the attacks are coming from missiles in the Gulf countries, stand off missiles fired from the air outside of Iranian air space and tomahawk missiles fired from naval assets. All this ordinance is in short supply. It may take several years to replace the ordinance being used. 

The economies of Iran, Israel, and the gulf countries are mostly at a standstill. The economic consequences will be huge and long lasting.

While it is true Israel pushed for this war, it is not all about Israel, Iran is a pivotal part of the BRICS economic group and Russia and China have a serious interests in Iran maintaining its sovereignty. They can be expected to not allow the total destruction of Iran.

Speculation about the death of Netanyahu and Ben Ge-vir is all over the place. There are denials, but no sightings for days. One can expect that if they are alive we will see them soon.

Iran has made it clear that they have not asked for a ceasefire or any negotiations. They have actually laid out a list of conditions for a lasting agreement that at this time will never be accepted by the U.S.  

This war look's like it will continue for many weeks, if not months.

Day 14, Iran retaliates to every escalation.

 ISRAEL EARLY WARNING DOWN TO 90 SECONDS

TARGETS EXPAND TO WATER, OIL PRODUCTION AND BANKS

2 weeks into this war and it does not appear to be near an end. The strait is still impassable unless receiving permission from Iran. Ships must have prior individual permission. More refineries and other production facilities in the gulf are shutting down as they are soon out of storage space.  It could take several weeks to restart many of these facilities. 

There is still oil in transit as it takes from 19 to 35 days for oil to reach Europe. 20 to 30 days to Japan. The real crunch will begin in another 2 weeks, and even if open, could be critical for a month after that. There is going to be a severe oil related economic situation within the next 2 weeks. Today's Crude futures  price is at $95. Fertilizer price, made from natural gas, has risen substantially and there could be shortages.

Iran continues to hit U.S. bases and Israel. It has launched its 44th wave of attacks on Israel and due to elimination of much of the radar in the gulf their early warning is now down to 90 seconds which essentially means it is best to remain in shelters  at all times. Hezbollah also launched 100 missiles into Israel yesterday.  A larger percentage of these missiles are reportedly now hitting as the loss of radar has hampered effectiveness of defenses.

Iran seems to be now reciprocating attacks. If their oil facilities are attacked they hit oil facilities in the gulf. If their water desalination facilities, they respond by attacking such facilities in the gulf or Israel. They have also stated that are going to begin targeting western banks and investment facilities. Their warnings seem to usually be followed by real attacks.

So far, the strategy seems to be to keep increasing the bombing until Iran capitulates. Can the bombing be increased? While it is claimed to be unlimited, I doubt there is any such thing as unlimited. It now seems to be a war of attrition, and existential threat to Iran's survival, but not the U.S.  We can expect that within 2 weeks serious economic consequences will be reality and increase after that. Is there a plan B?

Day 13, Declare Victory or double down?

THIS IS WHAT A WAR TRAP LOOKS LIKE 

LOOSING FACE IS A HARD OPTION

We have heard that this war is almost over. We have heard that there are no more targets left to hit. We have heard that if Iran doesn't capitulate they will bombed like never before. 

Yesterday, Iran launched wave 40 of missile attacks on Israel that lasted over 5 hours. It is reported, but not verified by Israel, that there were many missile impacts. At least 3 ships were damaged near the strait of Hormuz and contrary to all threats it is still not allowing commerce through this vital passageway. 

The clock is ticking until this war will begin to have global economic consequences. The Oil futures price today is $91, gas in Pa, is now $3.80, Diesel $5.19 and Home heating oil $4.80. If no resolution of this war, it will go much higher and begin to have domestic economic consequences.

Implications are far greater in some other parts of the world and the possibility of more players entering this conflict is growing.

The leader of the Iraqi Kurds has stated that they are not guns for hire and it is not their war. 

Trump has been advised by some Senators and military to declare victory and end this war. Israel can not take daily punishment and a dysfunctional economy forever. No one has proposed a plan that will insure safe passage through the strait of Hormuz. Iran has publicly stated that there will be no new negotiations or end to this war unless their demands are met.

One can assume that Netanyahu understood the psychology of Donald Trump very well and knew that if this war started, Trump would want to end as a winner, any backdown would look like weakness and have global and domestic implications. We can only assume that we will soon see a doubling down of this conflict and even the possibility of introducing ground troops to secure the strait of Hurmuz. This will result in many casualties and the need for further escalation.

At the same time Israel will be eventually be put into the position of facing its doom and as it has done numerous times in the past, threaten the use of nuclear weapons.  It could be expected that this critical period will come in just a few weeks.

It takes a lot of humility and real courage to change course, it will be the ultimate test, so far, of Trumps presidency.

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