Beware of $5000 Trojan Horse.

DIGITAL CURRENCY YOU CAN'T REFUSE 

WILL YOU LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR FUTURE? 

 

Trump's latest offer of $5000 to all adults, if the Republicans win the election, may have a double agenda. We should all know that the US debt is now unrepayable and is also unsustainable. One of the solutions that has been put forward is the use of stable coins. These coins are to be used as currency. Each coin is equivalent to $1 and is backed by US debt. It is an effort to continue to finance the continually rising debt.

 

Now I want to make it clear what I am about to convey is speculation on my part, but we are on the verge of dramatic crisis that will require dramatic solutions, but most likely not real or sound solutions. The real solution is fiscal responsibility, not more financial shenanigans.

 

Now consider, what if the $5000 gift to every adult would be paid in stable coins rather than in dollars. That would add up to 245 million citizens needing a stablecoin account to receive the payout. That $1.3 trillion would only be exchangeable with retailers who have such accounts. Walmart, Amazon and every other retailer would want access to all that digital currency, so in one giant action much of the country would be persuaded to adopt digital currency. 

 

Now once everyone has the proper account it will become a major part of the US economy and possibly in the international economy. 

 

Since the transactions are going to be funneled through the Trump bank and possibly other banks, they will earn the interest on the debt represented by these stable coins. At 5% that would be $65 billion and possibly another 2 % transaction fee,  another $25 Billion.

 

Now while that is impressive, once everyone is set up to do these transactions, one could again speculate that the Federal government and possibly all governments could use this system for all government payments, wages, social security, medicare  etc. . No stablecoin account, no receipt of payments. Again, all those stablecoins backed by US debt at $2.7 trillion x 5%, would earn $135 Billion, by the banks handling the transactions, plus an incalculable amount of transaction fees.

 

It is likely that with a little political pressure every company would also move to all payments and wages in digital currency. 

 

I suspect that a voluntary move to digital currency would be resisted by a large segment of the population, but a move that would be encouraged by a windfall would be hard to resist. Would you refuse to accept the payout? 

 

The dollar is under assault,  not due necessarily to evil intentions, but the reality that government spending in excess of its ability has devalued the purchasing power of the dollar. It may be tempting to continue the irresponsible financial policies by replacing a already fake currency, the dollar, with a digital currency that will take away peoples ability to choose and have control of the fruit of their labor.  

 

Such a currency would make it possible for the government to decide what would be acceptable to purchase and from who. It is a system that would be envied by every government existing today. 

 

Again, all speculation, I suspect both parties in the country would love to control such a system. Hopefully, this warning, will help raise citizens awareness of dangers that are coming in the future as the debt crisis will offer opportunities to those who seek more power and control. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Asia trade, Whose their Daddy.

 CHINA IS THE MAJORITY TRADING PARTNER

CAN THE US FORCE THIS TO CHANGE?

 

 

 

 

A look at the map above does not need an explanation and it is unlikely that it has improved since 2024. Is it practical for these nations to be forced into using the dollar as its trading currency? Geographically they are closer and China does offer them a wide variety of useful goods. 

 

I suspect the vast majority of trade with the US is military arms.

 

Of course today, due to the ongoing conflict, these gulf countries have very little income, little trade and an uncertain future.  It could be that the above numbers are part of the real reason that they are now caught in this situation. They have all become major trading partners with China, including Israel. I suspect with a free choice they would continue to these kind of trading numbers.

 

It is interesting that Saudi Arabia who has been trading oil in other currencies, rather than the dollar is now in a precarious situation. In fact, just this week Saudi Arabia has pledged to not use the BRICS payment settlement system in the future. 

 

An escalation of the war with Iran will likely end the income for all these gulf nations for many years, cut off China from the regions oil and open the door for US complete control of gulf resources.

 

That is if it can maintain its economic and military ability and internal political stability to continue on this path.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Is global economic crisis last hope to save dollar hegemony?

 ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY FOR THE EPSTEIN CLASS

WEALTH AND POWER ARE RELATIVE

 

As we teeter on the edge of world economic crisis one has to wonder why it looks like a strategy rather than a consequence of poor decisions. The Russia/Ukraine war could have been avoided with just accepting a neutral Ukraine. It could have been ended within months in Istanbul. The Iran war also could have been avoided as Iran had accepted most of the conditions in Geneva, days before the  war was started by the US and Israel.

 

There is lots of evidence that these wars were desired and also that they are not in a hurry to actually end them. It is also clear that these wars are an effort to short circuit the move to an alternative economic system, not dependent on the dollar. A system evolving to neuter the ability of the US to economically damage or destroy those that do not submit to US power.

 

Now we have been told that the Russians and the Chinese are our mortal enemies and that they want to destroy our way of life and they need to stopped by any means. This of course also includes Iran and any other nation that does not bend the knee.  

 

Lets face it, maintaining the supremacy of the dollar is not going that well, Its standing has eroded year by year, not by conspiracy of our enemies but by the irresponsibility of our leaders. It is the ultimate power of the US and we are witnessing that our military power has limitations. Limitations that will be further eroded by of own economic nonsense and diminishing manufacturing base.

 

The US cannot be restored to is strong base in weeks or years but only by decades of sustained perseverance and disciplined work. 

 

We have to wonder if the ruling class sees the handwriting on the wall and understands that their power over others is coming to an end and the last hope is to bring the whole system down, everyone diminished, many destroyed, so they are still number one even a very reduced level.

 

If you have $1000 and everyone has $1 you are now rich. If much of the world is lacking food and energy and you are surviving even at a reduced level, you are still relatively rich. 

 

Building bunkers for survival to be able to take advantage of the opportunities for unprecedented wealth and power in the future, while most of the world is destroyed is not a new evil strategy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

World economy needs an end to 1 war.

 TAKE YOUR PICK RUSSIA OR IRAN

MOST LIKELY NOT WITH A VICTORY 

 

As we are now in the midst of escalating war both in Europe and Western Asia, it is clear neither can be won easily or quickly and the world economy cannot survive two existential wars at one time. This is doubly critical as both are major oil producing regions. 

 

So, which war can be ended most quickly? Which war will have the the most immediate effect in a positive outcome for the world?

 

The Russia/Ukraine war is escalating by the day, with massive damage being inflicted on both Ukraine and Russia. The damage to Russia's oil refineries are having a serious effect on the availability of refined products causing problems globally. This war, underway for 4 years, is also the most complicated to end.  Ukraine cannot win this war, and the worst result would be an existential threat to Russia's security from NATO. Russia has the ability to end such a result very quickly that would be catastrophic for the world. Neither Ukraine or NATO is willing to come to any agreement at this time. this war will not be ended quickly.

 

The Iran war is far less complicated, in fact, there is recipe to end this conflict on the table. It would require a decision to do that from the United States and the other details could be worked out, if there was good faith shown. The gulf oil supplies plus natural gas, fertilizer, Helium and other essential products could start flowing in a very short time. The alternative is another round of hostilities that will likely take these essentials off the market for not days or weeks but possibly years, it will be a global economic crisis with consequences beyond calculation.

 

The best course is to suck it up, end the gulf war and then focus on economic survival for all. 

 

 

 

 

 

Negotiations dead, Final showdown building.

 NEW SANCTIONS PUSH, US ISOLATION 

US IRAN PREPARE FOR FINAL SHOWDOWN

 

Those on the ground in Russia covering the elections report that the sentiment is clear, no new negotiations are coming and they expect major escalation to end this conflict. While Ukraine is hitting targets in Russia via drone warfare, Russia is systematically degrading Ukraine's ability to sustain this conflict. While they have not yet taken out the road and railway bridges over the Dneiper river, which would cut off eastern Ukraine from their supplies, they are taking down bridges and rails in other places.  It is becoming increasingly difficult to supply food, fuel and other essentials. It is clear that Russia expects to eventually take Odessa and Karkiv. Russia has made it clear that any NATO troops in Ukraine will be war with NATO.

 

Iran is expecting a massive Israeli US attack before the end of the year.  There is reason to believe this will be a massive air campaign and also some sort of ground operation. The problem is that the US bases in the gulf are unusable and that leaves operating out of Israel and Jordan and possibly Saudi Arabia. It seems this ongoing Ansar Allah conflict in Yemen may be preparing for that. Bombers need to operate from a ground base. Both Israel and the US have been refraining from using their weapons, likely in an effort to stockpile limited munitions. Trump would like to wait until after the elections, but Iran may feel all out war against Israel and the US and its fleet may be in their interest to engage before then.

 

Yesterday Congress passed 100% sanctions on any country doing business with Russia. This is primarily targeting China and India. Trump has not signed or enforce this and it is unlikely he will. China has stated that it will not enforce any sanctions on anyone and India says that if enforced it will be the end of US/India relations. At the BRICS meeting last week members agreed that they will not enforce unilateral non UN sanctions. I expect US retailers will be informing the white house of the risks of actually enforcing these sanctions.

 

It does look like the rest of 2026 will have lots of pivotal and dramatic happenings. Whether there will be any final resolutions of anything is doubtful, but we can expect increased economic, military and political chaos. 

 

 

 

 

Will the gulf states survive the current crisis?

 FRAGILE FOUNDATIONS UNDER STRESS

THE OTHER CLOCK THAT IS TICKING

 

Currently we see that the lowly Houthis or Ansar Allah, inflicting serious losses on Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia for some unknown reason escalated the simmering disputes and now things have escalated to a dangerous level. This is putting Saudi Arabia in a new internal political and economic crisis.

 

The reality is all the gulf countries are in trouble, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, UAE and Saudi Arabia have a combined population of 62 million. The politics is family dynasties in all these countries with of the 62 million, 32 million are foreign workers. This leaves around 30 million and much of this made up of royal family members and a host of diverse tribes.   The glue holding much of this together is money riches earned from oil wealth, something that has now been minimal for near 7 months. This is creating the biggest stress on the internal politics of these nations in the modern era.

 

While, so far, they have not suffered significant damage to their infrastructure as Iranian attacks have focused on US bases. This may eliminate the ability of the US to insure their internal stability.  Saudi Arabia is already suffering infrastructure damage from the ongoing Houthi action, effectively eliminating their oil revenue. US resources are stretched with its own crisis with Iran and the bleeding of resources in Ukraine.

 

Under stress, many of the old border disputes  arising from the lines drawn by the British Empire may arise not only in the gulf but into a far wider region. 

 

The Gulf countries, and many other countries are being forces to liquidate assets to keep their internal stability. The most liquid asset is Gold and then US treasuries. We have seen the US treasury attempt to intervene in the gulf and in Japan and South Korea but it may be  impossible to stop the bleeding. A bleeding that may prove to be fatal if not stopped quickly.

 

Then one must speculate is the dissolution of the gulf countries another intended consequence if one should desire to take control of the worlds oil resources. 

 

 

 

Trump's Audacity of Mendacity

DAILY  TALES WORTHY OF THE GRUNDSAU LODGE

TALL TALES CONTEST EVERY DAY

 

Lately I am reminded of memories of the Grundsau lodge and their tall tales contests. While never participating, as I was neither Pennsylvania dutch or part of the local farming community, I heard stories about the contest. In our area the usual winner was a large gentlemen whose profession was hauling cattle and owned a tavern. He had a reputation of being able to tell the most outrageous and fantastic stories with an eloquence that was fantastic in itself. He was able to tell tales that resulted in gut wrenching laughter and provided entertainment that was never matched. It was all in good fun and helped lighten the mood and pass time in the winter months.

 

What reminded me of this was the daily onslaught of tall tales I hear, while some may find them funny and entertaining, it is serious business now and just embarrassing and dangerous.  

 

I do not believe the Iranians are calling and begging daily for a deal. In fact, I suspect that there has been little interaction at all. As I recall, there was a media event signing of an agreement in of all place "Versailles " 

 

I can't help but understand, that rather than fanatical psychopaths, the Iranians seem to be more measured, more methodical and have a real plan, something I now suspect is lacking here at home. 

 

I doubt the US has a large supply of expensive sophisticated precision weapons. 

 

I don't believe the risk to the general well being of the population is worth this present standoff, that is now entering an entirely unprecedented dangerous territory.

 

I no longer believe either Zelensky or Bibi will do as they are told. In fact, it is more the other way around.

 

Stop, it is enough, perception does become reality in political campaigns but not war. Reality will win out and it results in death destruction and general suffering.

 

I supported the idea of an end to foreign interventions and immoral  rationalizations of our foreign policy. What happened to the good instincts that seem to have been replaced by the same old unrestrained path to decline and destruction. 

 

It may be the last chance for real down to earth Oval office address, conveying the real situation, the truth, as ugly as it may be. I suspect that the American people will have more understanding that people in Washington give them credit. It may be the last chance to save any credibility with anyone.