Russia accelerates in Ukraine.

 RUSSIA ADVANCING ON ALL FRONTS

NATO MONEY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH 

 

It is clear that the Russia has stepped up its pressure in Ukraine. It started with massive aerial  attacks in most of eastern Ukraine, has put out of commission most of the gas stations, cut off energy supplies to Karkiv and is advancing at a quickening pace in every area of conflict. It is becoming clear that the internal pressure on Putin to get this conflict over with is having an effect.

 

While Ukraine continues to offer strong resistance, without some sort of game changing situation it now looks like it's days are numbered , even though this could go on for many more months. 

 

We can expect that this week's NATO meeting will be dominated by the Ukraine situation, we can expect to see calls for more money and more weapons, but what Ukraine needs is more manpower, it does seem that Ukraine is running out of manpower. One would expect that even mercenary soldiers may be hard to come by at this point.

 

While the EU countries continue to talk about war with Russia and increase spending on weapons, they have little in the way of manpower. We can expect that attempting to raise an army will be politically difficult with the fragile political environment. They also want a commitment from the United States before they attempt any intervention in Ukraine. The U.S. still has troops in the middle east and  a shortage of munitions, so it is doubtful that any real commitment is possible. 

 

It also appears that there are no real negotiations possible, it seems that most of the good will in negotiations in Ukraine have evaporated. it will most likely be some sort surrender that will end this war. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After 250 years, U.S. still best.

 BRAVE WISE MEN CHANGED HISTORY

OVERTURNED THE EXISTING ORDER

 

The men who declared independence from the feudal order of the British Empire started a world wide revolution that attempted to change the existing world order.  That spirit is still necessary as it continues to fight many of the same forces that still exist today. 

 

We have to conclude that the experiment that started those many years ago has been successful, the U.S. is still the best place for individuals to pursue their dreams and use their talents as free individuals.   

 

The constitution and the bill of rights is a remarkable document, that while continually under assault, it is still standing. These documents need the steadfast awareness of the citizens to make sure the spirit is preserved for the next generation.

 

We would do well to remember the admonitions of those brave men to beware of foreign entanglements and alliances that can sap the strength and vitality of the nation.  Those same issues are still with us today. 

 

The philosophy of "vote your pocketbook"  is a great danger to the nation as we have seen the results of massive deficit spending, something that the founders would never had tolerated. 

 

While the nation still stands, it has perils both from outside and inside that only a well informed and active citizenship can insure its continued existence. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Supreme court's final decisions for the term.

 ONE IS REAFFIRMING STATE RIGHTS

ONE RULING ON PRECEDENT

 

The ruling concerning trans male athletes from participating in women's sports was a classic states rights ruling. It certainly was not an issue when the constitution was written and states rights is perfect for covering such matters.  It is probably the best ruling that the court could have agreed upon.

 

The birthright citizenship ruling seems to have been based on many years of precedent even if it is a bad precedent.  The 14th amendment was enacted in 1868 and was the direct result of abuses concerning freed slaves who often were denied citizenship in some states. The amendment ruled that everyone born in the U.S. was automatically a citizen. There was an ambiguous line stating, "subject to the jurisdiction of the U.S" The amendment clearly disqualified children born to foreign diplomats and occupying armies. 

 

In today's world, recognizing anyone born in the country even if here on vacation or illegally is not in the spirit of the original amendment.  This amendment was written way before the era of financial benefits linked to citizenship and is not practiced by any other country in the world. We can assume that court feared the complications of any change that has been practiced for near 200 years. It could have been possible for a  clarifying  ruling that exempted all before the present date from losing their citizenship. 

 

I suspect that this may not be the end of this effort to change birthright citizenship, either by amendment or another attempt with different court. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Is Bibi coming to sell his latest war plan?

 NETANYAHU MAKES 7TH TRIP TO WASHINGTON

IRAN HOLDING FIRM ON DEMANDS 

 

It is being reported that Israel's Netanyahu will be meeting with Trump today at 11 am.  The precedent seems to be that some sort of war usually follows. It is not clear who has called for this meeting, but we can assume it has to do with the Iran conflict. 

 

The United States has now had a large number of forces in the region for over 1 year with no end in sight. We hear from those who want escalation and those who want a negotiated settlement.  The dilemma is that Trump agreed to Iran's framework, but hopes to win a victory at the negotiating table. It seems the agreeing part was just an effort to get the strait open and then negotiate a better deal.  Iran is holding firm, desiring a long term agreement that will avoid renewed war in a few  months. We can assume that Netanyahu is planning war, not any deal. 

 

Trump is in a hard place, Iran has demonstrated that they are willing to resume hostilities if necessary and any escalation on their infrastructure will be followed by damage to Persian  gulf infrastructure that will have dire consequences for the world economy and the U.S. economy. Iran is also demanding Israel withdraw from Lebanon, we can expect that will be on the agenda today.

 

Iran is making it clear that they plan on continuing some sort of control on the transit through the strait. it no longer is a toll, but an environmental fee that will include insurance to cover any damages from spills and other related damage to the waterway. It seems Oman is quietly willing to take part in this joint venture.

 

I suspect most shippers find such a fee a small part of their business, and any guarantee of safe passage will be acceptable.  Of course, we can assume Trump still wants to control the Iranian oil and even the other Persian gulf oil resources. There is little room for compromise by either side and everyday the risk and costs are rising.

 

I doubt that Bibi is bringing any positive solutions with him today. 

 

Update. It seems Netanyhou did not come to the U.S. yesterday, sorry this column was in error. 

 

 

 

 

Two wars in Ukraine?

 INTENSITY INCREASES ON LAND AND IN THE AIR

IT WILL LIKELY INCREASE 

 

While most of the focus has been on the conflict in the Persian gulf, the war in Ukraine has increased in intensity and violence.  For several months Russia has increased the air assaults on Ukraine and Ukraine has responded by hitting Russian oil infrastructure. The Ukrainians have been able to disrupt supplies in Crimea and in the eastern portions of Ukraine as well as hit targets far into Russia. Much has been made of these attacks and some even suggest Ukraine is winning this conflict. 

 

While it has been effective against Russia, the other war, the war on the ground has not changed direction. Russia has been advancing even though Ukraine makes attempts to counter attack and sometimes moves forward the fighting has been intense, but Russia is still moving and taking village after village and has in effect cut off Karkiv from its supply routes, it has steadily moved south in the Sumy region and has advanced all along the battle line.

 

While air attacks on Russia have been damaging, Ukraine cannot follow up with any ground operations. The attacks only hope to weaken Russian morale and keep NATO nations support from diminishing. Ukraine's manpower shortage worsens by the day and as Russia opens new fronts, their ability to fill the holes is becoming unsustainable. Ukraine continues to offer formidable resistance, but their is not really any change in their favor for the long term.

 

 

 

 

 

Iran unwilling to cede control of Strait.

 NUCLEAR ENRICHMENT NO LONGER AN ISSUE

FAST MOVING NEGOTIATIONS EXCEPT FOR STRAIT 

 

It seems there is now a ceasefire within the ceasefire as negotiations resume. The future of the strait of Hormuz seems to now be the major controversy. The 14 point agreement stated that the strait would be open by both parties for the next 60 days, then an arrangement would be made between Oman and Iran whose territorial waters overlap in the strait of Hormuz.  At the same time, messaging coming out of Washington is that the strait will be either opened or controlled by the U.S.  

 

There is also some controversy  about the returned Iranian assets, it seems the U.S. wants to put controls on the money that it could only be spent in the U.S., terms that are unacceptable to Iran. 

 

It seems the nuclear issue is to revert back to the same as it was before the war. Iran would limit its enrichment to what is needed for commercial uses and dilute or cede the enriched fuel. all this was agreed to before the war,  inspections would verify compliance.

 

The reality is that Iran, by controlling the strait, and they just made that clear last week, can disrupt oil flow instantly, giving them enormous leverage.  It is also clear that taking control away from them is difficult, costly or possibly impossible and the longer it is not clearly open the clock on global economic damage is ticking. 

 

It is in the best interest of Iran that the strait is safe and open as it will prosper by its own flow of oil and possibly by some sort of regulation maintained by them and Oman.  Many claim that the strait is regulated by international law, but there is some controversy as the territorial waters of Oman and Iran actually cover the entire width of the strait. The U.S. has also made it clear that they will not be handicapped by international  law, so I guess possession is a powerful position.

 

Many advocate a resumption of the war, but it still is not an easy choice, as Iran has the ability to destroy gulf oil infrastructure and keep the strait closed, both a strong incentive to avoid more all out war.  

 

 

 

 

 

Israel believes war will restart after midterms.

 TRUMP NARRATIVE DOES NOT MATCH ACTIONS

HARD TO PREDICT WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN 5 MONTHS 

 

Watching news and other media out of Israel it seems Israel is not ready for anything short of the destruction of Iran. It also seems they are convinced Trump will restart the war after the midterms. While Trump could be signaling that intention and also often threatening that action it may be unlikely that will happen. We can assume Trump will not restart a war with Iran unless there is plan to actually accomplish some real goals. It is unlikely he will do a redo on Netanyahu and Mossad's assumptions.

 

That and who knows what will be the outcome of those elections and who knows what other crisis is on the horizon, there are many possibilities. There are multiple crisis brewing, and even with keeping the control of congress, another war will become hard to sell.  I am beginning to believe that this was the only attempt on Iran we will see in Trump's presidency. The supporters of war with Iran may have to groom the president for war with Iran.