Will foreign policy change after election?

 ELECTIONS UNDERWAY IN ISRAEL

DID IDF DEFY NETANYAHU? 

 

Elections are underway in Israel, results should be available by this evening here. It is unlikely to make any difference in foreign policy, but it may indicate that some are hoping for an effort to restore the Israeli image. 

 

There are reports from many places that the IDF refused to attack Iran by order of Netanyahu, it would have caused an internal  crisis for being an election ploy. I am sure we will hear more about this, depending on the election results.

 

Big meeting in Tehran yesterday between Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, supposedly to encourage Iran to put limits on Yemen, I suspect they talked about much more, the upcoming escalation could destroy the economies of all of them. While Yemen is allied in many way with Iran, they are not Iran's proxy, only an understanding between Saudi Arabia and Yemen will end this current conflict. Saudi Arabia started this current outbreak of the over a decade of fighting,  Yemen wants an end of the  blockade by the Saudi's. 

 

One week to the midterm elections,  we can expect a resumption in the war with Iran and all the accompanying consequences, no matter the outcome. The only thing that can stop the next round is push back from the gulf countries or Israel. 

 

We can expect with the elections over, there will be little restraint by Trump for the reminder of his term. Expect executive orders, lawsuits with drawn out legal disputes, but not really any change of foreign policy direction. 

 

Tomorrow, everyone will start talking about 2028.  

 

 

 

 

 

If Russia succeeds, Ukraine mineral leases will be void.

 UK'S 100 YEAR LEASES WORTHLESS

SAME FOR FRANCE AND US

 

While the Ukraine/Russia war continues, the end result is beginning to be in sight. It appears that Russia will have successfully incorporated at least 4 oblasts and Crimea into Russia. These regions are made up of majority Russian people and also the regions with the most natural resources. These regions are also the industrial regions that will be part of the Russian federation. 

 

In early 2025 the UK signed a 100 year agreement concerning access to the mineral resources. this led to Trump saying me too and signing a similar agreement. It can be assumed that since Zelensky was not constitutionally a legal elected President according to Ukraine's constitution, the agreements will be void even if Ukraine should retain those areas. We can assume Russia will never consider those agreements, if they are in control of those regions.

 

Zelensky won the 2019 election and was supported by the UK, the US supported Poroshinko, much of this was  jockeying for who would have control after the war. It is looking like neither will be able to defend their long term rights to Ukrainian minerals, at least not where most of the minerals exist.

 

Russia's resources will also not be in the West's control and may not even be available, while Germany and others are talking about purchasing Russian energy, it is not clear that Russia will be able to satisfy their demand, as it has long term commitments to its new buyers in China and India.

 

It could be expected that any agreement for Russian energy will hinge on the EU  assuming the cost of repairing the pipelines and maintaining them in the future. Russia is in the process of building pipelines supplying energy to the east and south. 

 

Control of Middle East oil is still not clear,  or if the war escalates, will there be any oil out of the region for some time. Can the US continue to control the oil out of Iraq and Syria without a massive rebuilding of bases in the region?  Does Israel really have the capacity to take the place of the US in the region? Can Israel expect the same same level of support from the US in the future? We can expect changes in US support in the area, due to economic and political considerations at home.

 

Both the Ukraine and Iran war seem to be turning points in the present world order, the hope is that it can be accomplished without destroying the economies and also the populations of the globe. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Elections less relevant, Future more baked in than ever.

 US FUTURE TO BE DETERMINED BY PAST POOR DECISIONS

LOSING  ABILITY TO CONTROL FUTURE 

 

With elections coming in less 2 weeks, it is becoming clear that future options are increasingly limited. Much of what happens to the country will be determined by the consequences of past decisions. While we will see domestic policy whipsawed from right to left, the real future is going to be limited by massive debt, a loss of self reliance and decisions made and realities outside the country.

 

The emphasis on controlling global economics and politics with sanctions and military power is coming to an end.  The latest sanctions on Russia is a good example, most of the rest of the world yawned and ignored them. Many in Europe are questioning if it's following the US on the Ukraine project was a good idea, with opposition parties are looking to Russia for energy salvation.

 

With a national debt approaching $41 Trillion and growing by the day, there is little money available for real infrastructure investment or more social programs and of course another $500 billion in anticipated military spending.

 

Government corruption has accelerated and now is more blatant than ever.  It is not a party thing, it is endemic to the government in general. There is no real option at the voting booth to change the direction of these serious issues.

 

While many hoped that Trump would indeed "Drain the Swamp"  it is becoming obvious that the swamp has overcome and actually incorporated him into the swamp. It would be naive to beleave that there is anyone on the horizon who will do better. 

 

While progress has been made in border control, taxes and some regulation reduction, the debt has spiraled, the deficits increased and war as a political tool is now the permanent way of life. It is clear that there will be no change of direction in managing the serious problems, only collapse and rebuilding, will be the option.

 

The upcoming resumption of war with Iran may be the impetus for the beginning of that collapse, it seems that it is now inevitable, no matter which party is in power. The US will not be able to afford to rebuild the bases in the gulf and most likely is destined to withdraw from many of the 750 bases in the world. While that is a good thing, it should have been made by conscious thoughtful decisions, not be the incoming necessity.

 

If you look at the composition of both parties, there is no consensus on ending any wars,  the democrats are already fuming on any suggestion of ending the Ukraine war., without destroying Russia. It seems we are much in the same boat as Ukraine, we will continue in war, until it is no longer economically and physically possible.

 

 

 

Russia agrees to talks, later, after elections.

 ZELENSKY AGREES TO GIVE UP TERRITORY

BIBI PROMISES MORE WAR WITH IRAN 

 

It seems there will not be any any election season surprises. No peace in Ukraine nor election eve war in Iran. It appears Bibi still wants war with Iran even before the elections to help his election chances, while Trump feels more war will be negative for the Republicans.  Putin, smiling, has pledged to talks with Ukraine. but not until the middle of next month, even with Zelensky admitting he will agree to give up eastern Ukraine. 

 

With less than a week until the Israeli election. Bibi does tapes with him on the phone with Trump promising more war with Iran. It appears more war with Iran is central for Bibi to win the election. Trump on the other hand hopes to continue with the narrative that peace is at hand both in Iran and Ukraine, hoping for a last minute election miracle.  

 

We can only assume that Putin is not willing to count on election season posturing and will wait to see what the narrative is after the elections or the actual policy. 

 

Iran understands that it will be more war, no matter the election results, talks and negotiations are just window dressing for Trump to appear that he really want a peace deal,  when there is no peace deal on the horizon.  

 

With no more elections in the near future, it will be back to war for sure in Iran and maybe even in Ukraine.  

 

 

 

 

Both Russia and Iran understand the plan.

 NO CEASEFIRE AND NO OPEN STRAIT 

ONLY LONG TERM RESOLUTION ACCEPTABLE 

 

It is clear that it is increasingly difficult for the US to be engaged in 2 simultaneous wars. While many would like to see an end to both wars, there are of course those who want to win both wars. We see Trump offering concessions to Russia, much of it in a hope to bring about a ceasefire. Russia also understands that Ukraine is in a very vulnerable position and he also understands by experience that any ceasefire will be used to enhance Ukraine ability to continue. There will continue to be glad handing and offers to help the US domestic situation and Trump hopes to win over Russia and peel away its support for Iran and China. Putin also understands that the war will continue until a comprehensive settlement is reached that will end the war permanently, not just another pause until next round. 

 

Iran is in a similar situation, all the propositions attempt to encourage Iran to open up the strait for talks, but also understands that economic sanctions and a goal for its destruction is still the plan of both Trump and Netanyahu.  Netanyahu wants Iran reduced to a failed state that it can periodically feel free to mow the grass and dominate with military power. Trump hopes to gain control of all the oil in the gulf and use it as leverage to maintain US supremacy.  

 

While these schemes have worked in the past, it has been replayed too often to be effective.  Peace is possible, but only long term comprehensive deals that ensure peace for the long term future. Ukraine, the EU, and many in the US are still not ready to admit that is possible. 

 

As for Iran, they understand that their existence is at stake and they are willing to fight on, if necessary. The consequences will very badly damage all involved and the global economic system.  

 

I suspect the war with Ukraine will continue until Ukraine cannot physically continue. The Iran war will also continue and may very well change the global power structure permanently. 

 

Both could have been avoided, both could have been settled, but it is just another sad example of the lust for power and what belongs to others. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Democrats do not offer credible alternatives.

 POSSIBLE TEMPORARY WINS ARE NOT SUSTAINABLE

CONSERVATIVE TRENDS WILL NOT BE DERAILED

 

The predictions in this election season are that the Democrats will have substantial comeback from their 2024 losses. While it may be true, it will be caused by a lack of enthusiasm and disarray presently on the more conservative side. It will not be from an actual embracing of the democrats agenda. The trends in politics seem to be a two steps forward 1 step backward kind of pattern and this year may be a step backward, but the trend will not be deterred in the long run. 

 

We saw the 1994 massive move to the Republicans followed by moves back until 2010 with the tea party movement. The pressure against a real conservative movement is present in both parties and new movements are quickly misdirected and corrupted by the deep seated powers in the parties. Often the actual movements are reincorporated into the existing power base and real change is slowed, but it has not been destroyed.

 

While Democrats seem to be now in a position for renewal of power, it is not likely to have much sustenance. Social Democracy is dying not only in the US but in western Europe, not because people don't want more benefits, but because the well is dry the debt too big and just as the reality of the Soviet Union, it will become a relic of the past. The transition as to what will replace the present system is not yet clear, but it is not possible to continue on the present path. 

 

The US faces the same kind of dilemma as the Soviet System faced in 1990, it was a decade of disaster followed by a rebuilding, the same may be true for the US. Real communism is dead everywhere except North Korea and Democratic socialism is dying as well. 

 

While it seems that Trump has been reincorporated by the US war machine and the Israel lobby, his former followers will need to chalk it up to political experience and the acknowledgment of the realty of deep seated forces against change.  Just as we have witnessed the end of the massive deep power in the Soviet Union much of it having to do with the death of the original revolutionaries and the slow transitions in China from communism to some sort of hybrid capitalism the same can happen here. 

 

The transitions are safest if they are slow but steady, as we witnessed the nonviolent transition in Russia and even in China, the reality of the unsustainable path of the present situation, will hopefully  change grounded in our sound constitution and renewal of moral foundations.

 

The Social Democratic movement that prevailed in Western Europe and the US has reached its end because it is unsustainable due to debt, demographics and economic reality. An orderly transition is possible if we are willing to acknowledge that a transition is inevitable.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AI and Genetic engineering: Beware of the Brave new world.

NOT YET REALITY, BUT NOT FICTION

ARE WE ABOUT TO NEED TO DEFINE WHAT IS HUMAN?

There is much talk about the possibilities of Artificial Intelligence. The advances have been moving at a lightning pace. We now see robots that are beginning to look and act human. There is talk of them having the ability to LEARN, to express emotions, talk and adapt to new challenges. There is talk of them replacing humans for many menial tasks and maybe eventually not so menial.  It seems there is much interest and financial investment going into this research.  Without a doubt there are plans to substitute humans with these new entities for some occupations and some tasks.

Are we about to begin to debate what is the definition of a human. Is it an entity that is flesh and blood that stands erect, that has all the features of what we recognize today. Or is the definition of human far more complex, the ability to reason, adapt to changes, engage in abstract thought and put those thoughts into material creations. To have emotions, human instinct like survival and fear and hope, maternal instincts, family instincts and such traits are far more complicated .

Now consider, why spend vast sums on artificial intelligence that will need to be built, repaired and maintained. When we are now about to enter an era where it may be possible to engineer a living being or entity that will be self maintaining and reproducible.  Since the breakthrough of CRISPR in genetic engineering or gene editing it is becoming possible to modify embryos with a specific purpose or result in mind. In fact, it is reported that China has already had twin girls born that have been genetically modified. While this example has been condemned by China and others as unethical, if it can be done, it will be done. 

Now this example supposedly had to do with attempting to suppress the ability to contract HIV, but it is going to be possible to do much more. So imagine what can be possible. What if it should be decided that if scientists take unfertilized embryos and alter them that they no longer have the characteristics of humans that would fit into the accepted definition of what is human. Would some society accept that such entities, while they may have the physical appearance of humans, actually are not, but are now a new entity that could possibly even be patented. If all the emotions, instincts and behavioral characteristics of human are stripped out, then science could eventually make many special purpose entities that would easily replace humans to do much of the labor needed to keep society going.

There could be entities for the purpose of combat or police work. Household entities that could maintain all the needed choirs in every home. There could be entities that could act as surrogates if impregnated  in vitro with human fertilized embryos. The possibilities are endless.

These entities would also provide a endless source for organs and fetal tissue now hoped to be able extend life.

The maturing process could be shortened to become useful in a quicker time and they could be fully reproducible, no manufacturing, no maintenance. They could be engineered to have a specific length of useful time to function.

Such advancements would fulfill all the requirements of a sustainable planet. Many are already accepting the idea that the planets population should be downsized by between 1/2 and 1/10 of the current population. These new entities could replace much of the population and would not require or need near the resources that humans now use. The possibilities are soon to be endless.

So, while all this is now not reality, it is not science fiction, because it is going to be possible. This research IS going on now and the interest in downsizing the population is now an open topic of discussion.

We must believe that being as a god is enough enticement for such research to become an obsession for some that will not be controlled.

Originally published 11/15/22

MIT has released an article how they are anticipating the ability to produce humanoid bodies for research and body parts. I expect this is already going on somewhere.

3/31/2025