There are no happy endings in sight.

 THERE MAY NOT EVEN BE ANY WINNERS

ALTERNATIVES ARE BAD OR WORSE 

 

The global political situation is the direst since 1939, we are without a doubt at a pivotal decision time. Within a very short time the future direction will be decided and no matter what that may be, it is possibly without any positive outcomes.

 

The Ukraine Russia conflict drags on, I call it a conflict because it is not all out war. Real all out war will be something that no one can actually comprehend. Inept politicians boast of all out war, which just demonstrates the quality of leadership, particularly in the western world. This conflict may very well move to all out war and once underway possibly impossible to stop. 

 

European leaders still believe they can bring Russia to submit to their demands and  Ukraine hopes to drag in NATO to save their nation. It appears all opportunities for a negotiated settlement have passed and it will be only surrender by Ukraine or a massive European conflagration, most likely not contained within Europe.

 

The same goes for the Iran Israel US war, It has not been all out war. It has been attacks followed by responses and low grade continuing confrontation. It seems to be clear that the next escalation may become all out war. A war that will be fought until there is a decisive winner and a loser, similar to the end of WW2. Such a conclusion, no matter the winner, a capitulation by Iran or a US retreat from the region will have dire consequences for the globe. A Mideast economy decimated for years and a  world economy struggling to find any stability for a long time, plus the risk of expanding across the region and drawing in Russia and China.

 

It is clear that we are in the early stages of global war, much of the dispute is the challenge to existing order dominated by the US since WW2. The challenge to US dollar reserve status and the changing economic and political realities in today's world.

 

The reality is the US has devalued the purchasing ability of the dollar, due to irresponsible fiscal policy and it has allowed its manufacturing base, the source of real wealth creation, political and military power, to decline. It has refused to understand that the foundation of real power is no longer there, hence the threats, sanctions, bluster and now embroiled in 2 major conflicts with no winning way out, without resorting to nuclear conflagration, which will not be a win for anyone.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Asia transformation inevitable

 WEST'S POLICY BIGGEST UNIFYING FORCE

WILL TALK OF HOLY WAR IN US INSURE UNITY

 

Everyday we are witnessing a breakdown of the political situation in West Asia.  It is likely the alignment that began at the end of the 19th century is coming to an end. The Royal Navy began switching from coal to oil as its main fuel for its empire 's navy and the middle east was the most abundant source of that oil. The meddling began to keep the primitive political system in the region under their control and it resulted in the Nations and kingdoms it created by the end of WW2. This project seems to have been inherited by the United States after WW2. 

 

The policy has been to keep these tribes and nation divided and offer their military power as a stabilizing force. Any country that could offer some sort of leadership, Libya, Syria, and Iraq, was destroyed or compromised like Egypt and Turkey.  It is clear that political situation is coming to an end and the US no longer can maintain the promised stability. At present, there is a void of leadership in many of these countries and also a lingering divide of common purpose. That void is not going to remain forever and it will no longer be in the power of western governments to maintain the present system.

 

One option is to offer assistance in an orderly transition that will allow commerce and  interaction in a mutually beneficial way. The oil and other resources was always for sale and can be so in the future, without having ultimate control, this applies to other regions in the world, including Russia and China.

 

At present, that is not the course, today we hear Glenn Beck and other talk radio espousing holy war,  an anticipated war with Islam. We also hear it from the Secretary of WAR and other politicians. The hope of public execution of a Muslim man is just another subtle message to the world. The emphasis of the religion of political candidates is another. 

 

The immigration of large numbers of Muslims into the US and western Europe is a direct result of decades of destroying stable living conditions in the middle east in our quest for control. Many left those regions in a attempt to survive for themselves and their families.  I suspect that many would rather be home if it was safe and prosperous.

 

Islam is the one unifying force in the whole west Asia region, from north Africa to Pakistan and the rhetoric out of the west may very well be the most unifying force in that region in over 100 years. If this happens it will be direct result of the policies underway in the west.

 

Some of this is inspired by operatives of Israel and some of it a natural hostility to people or religions who are different, and of course decades of politically motivated propaganda.  

 

The US can no longer maintain control of the politics of the region and maybe also in other parts of the world, but we could offer the leadership of a new arrangement that has a basis is mutual respect and allowing others their natural right to self determination, something always espoused, but not always adhered to.

 

 

 

 

Saudi/Houthi conflict escalating into all out war.

 SAUDI INFRASTRUCTURE TAKING SERIOUS DAMAGE

RISK OF IMPACTING GLOBAL ECONOMY 

 

The Saudi Houthi conflict is becoming a major disruption in the region. The dispute dates back to 2015 when the Saudi's and coalition forces intervened in the Yemen civil war, they then imposed a blockade on Yemen that has caused humanitarian suffering for the past 11 years. The dispute was on hold until Saudi forces attacked the Yemen airport in an effort to kill some of its leadership. while the attack failed, the Houthi's retaliated and then a series of tit for tat exchanges led to a massive air attack by Saudi Arabia, now the Houthi's have been effective at taking out the infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, shutting  down air travel and damaging oil refineries and other oil facilities. The Houthi's now threaten to continue until Saudi Arabia ends the embargo on Yemen.

 

The ability of Saudi Arabia to produce and refine oil is now under threat and the other fear is that internal opposition may actually seek to overturn the existing regime. While the current leader has made reforms and ended Saudi support of international terrorism he has also made many enemies in the process of consolidating his power.  

 

It was likely not a good time to get involved in another round of fighting with the Houthi's who have actually become a far more sophisticated and organized adversary strengthened and hardened  by 11 years of blockade and fighting. 

 

There are indications that there was pressure by the US to attempt to weaken the Houthi's or to neutralize them before the upcoming offense against Iran. Now this conflict risks causing the depletion of limited munitions and air defense interceptors that will be necessary for the anticipated resumption of war with Iran. So far the Houthi's do not appear weaker and in fact may actually put the stability of Saudi Arabia at risk. 

 

It all adds up to a complication of the oil markets and threatens further instability of the gulf countries, with no end in sight.

 

 

 

 

Era of regime change is underway.

 FROM EUROPE TO THE MIDDLE EAST, MANY GOVERNMENTS ARE READY TO FALL

CHANGE WILL BE IRREVERSIBLE

 

While we see intense war in Ukraine and the middle east, there is change brewing in much of the world. In the middle east it is generally acknowledged that the US will not be rebuilding most of its military bases in the region. That will be followed with a natural evolution of many of the governments presently in power. The majority of the present governments are creations of the British Empire and they were held together by money and outside support. It may take many years for the money to be reestablished and the foreign powers are not going to be in a financial position to support these governments. They will revert back into their more natural foundations. 

 

We can expect a change of direction in the governments of France, Germany and the Uk, it is not clear what will follow, hopefully the upheaval can be an evolution rather than another European bloodbath. 

 

The US is likely to also experience another last gasp increase in Socialist policy, but it is no longer possible as there is no more money to borrow or tax and extreme measures could drive investment out of the country.   The US and its solid position in the western Hemisphere could be an island of prosperity and stability if it can overcome its lust for control and move to an era of cooperation and mutual respect. 

 

China's economic dominance in Asia will not be aborted, it will evolve into its own vast economic region. 

 

Massive change is coming and it is irreversible,  the dollar based economic system is in transition to a multi polar syetem that can be accommodated with mutual cooperation. It will demand an era of diplomacy and mutual respect, rather than violent control.

 

 

 

 

 

Ukraine on hold, Iran first.

 TRUMP VIOLATES "LINDSEY GRAHAM" LAW

WHAT A TANGLED WEB BEING WEAVED

 

Friday, Trump announced an agreement with Russia to sell diesel fuel to the US. A deal that was worked out earlier and a tanker actually left Russia on September 22, just 4 days after Trump signed Lindsey "only good Russian is a dead Russian" Graham law that mandated severe sanctions on any one buying Russian oil. China, India and others ignored the sanctions and it seems so did Donald Trump. Is this now the end of anyone taking seriously sanctions in the future. That may be the only real good result of this deal.

 

One has to wonder about a few things, What did Russia get in return for this accommodation?  How is Russia being paid, in Dollars, Rubles, Yuan or gold? Are Russian assets frozen in the US being released? Has the US stopped giving targeting and intelligence to Ukraine? While Russia could use the money, there is no doubt this deal was not about money. 

 

We see Trump offering Russia all kinds of carrots concerning trade with the US.  Does Russia really believe that Trump can be trusted to keep any promised agreement? We must assume there is some sort of immediate transaction that is not based on future promises.

 

We can also assume that Trump hopes to drive a wedge between Russia, China and Iran, particularly Iran. We also see Trump offering China future trade rewards with his recent meetings with US business leaders attending meetings in China and in Washington.  We can assume that the sacrifice called for is Iran, both by Russia and China. 

 

This oil deal may hope to relieve the results of the upcoming hostilities with Iran, and the hope is that after Iran is destroyed, then Russia and then China will be on the menu, in that order.  I suspect that lines are busy between China, Russia and Iran.

 

 

 

 

 

Mid-east war expanding into regional conflict.

 LOOKING FOR WILLING FIGHTERS EVERYWHERE

PAID FIGHTERS VS DEFENDERS OF THEIR HOMELAND

 

While the war with Iran is on hold due to a dilemma of no good options, attempts to expand the war into a regional conflict is another option that will not yield any good results. 

 

While it is still not clear why Saudi Arabia thought it was good idea to go to war with Ansar Allah or the Houthi, it is clear they are in desperate need for help. Pleading to the Americans, the French, British, Egypt, Israel and now even Syria, it is a humiliating circus for the richest kingdom in the region. while it is reported that Pakistan may be rising to the call, we will see how hard they want to fight and die in Yemen.

 

While Saudi Arabia is rich, or at least was, until this 7 month war began bleeding that wealth in many ways. Having spent billions on US war machines it still needs willing warm bodies to go to Yemen and risk dying. Many people will do many despicable things for money, but when it come to dying money is never worth it.

 

While the US and the gulf nations have been paying fighters for years, often they were incentivized by Ideology, or the spoils of war. Fighting in Yemen and even in Iran creates ideological conflicts and in Yemen in particular few spoils, only hardship and death. War planes with bombs are a little removed from the real dying, but ground war is real war, hot, dirty, unpredictable, with often terrible odds of surviving. 

 

We suspect the Yemen war is either the hope of luring Iran to their defense or just a prelude to another round with Iran. It is clear that he next attack on Iran will be intense, it is also clear that it is likely to pull the plug on the world economy, an exceptionable risk for a small minority, but most likely not for most of the world. The repercussion of a resumption of the Iran war might spread a regional war to a global war that will possibly not spare any country inestimable risks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North Korea, relic of the past or a glimpse of the future.

 OWNING NOTHING AND BEING HAPPY?

WILL THIS BE THE MODEL FOR MODERN SURVEILLANCE STATE 

 

You tube provides insight on the what many foreign countries are like, particularly those that we will never be able to see. There have been several podcasts by those that have traveled to North Korea. Travel to North Korea is limited to just a few countries and there are plenty of restrictions. Below is what has been portrayed by visitors to the country. I would speculate that North Korea is the only pure Communist country in today's world. 

 

Travelers to North Korea are restricted to travel  with groups of other travelers and are accompanied by guides. It seems they are only able to travel to major cites that are modern and well developed, so they are mostly restricted to seeing what they will allow. Life in rural areas and other cities may be far different. 

 

Housing, Health care and education are all free and everyone get some sort of a food allowance. Single people live with their parents, upon marriage the new couple gets their own housing and as they have children it gets  bigger. it seems the size ranges from 340 to 540 sq. feet.

 

Education is provided depending on scores and abilities and after graduation the state places them in their job, they can request options, but it is ultimately decided by the state. Workers get 2 weeks vacation, work 5 days a week usually and earn between $200 and $700 a month. Retirement is 60 for men and 55 for women. Maternity leave is 8 months and women with children can tend to childcare.

 

All business is owned by the state, there is no private business nor private real estate property. All transportation in government provided rail or bus; only bicycles are privately owned.  It is reported that this year there will be allowed some private autos to selected people. People who excel in sports, science or other value to the state can get extra benefits, bigger housing etc..

 

It actually sounds much like a system that some in this country are advocating. There is no freedom of speech or opposition. Internet is available within the country as is cell phone service. TV and entertainment are all controlled by the state.

 

Much of the financial transactions are digital transactions with a cell phone. 

 

With the advent of AI and the ability of states to monitor and surveil everything and everyone, there is little hope of any change of direction from the people.  

 

When you listen to the people in the World Economic forum, one could speculate that North Korea could be the future for the majority of mankind. AI and the surveillance state will make that possible with a minimal cadre of enforcers. Their motto of "You will own nothing and be happy." should be frightening. 

 

One wonders if it possible to domestic a population over time, just as chickens or cattle, not knowing nothing else and malcontents and non conformists weeded out or isolated. Only a change of direction by the elites of a country could change that and it seems few would ever give up power once secured.