Dramatic drop in support for Israel, CNN poll.

 DROP IN EVERY SECTOR OF U.S. POPULATION

ANTI-SEMITISM OR ANTI-ISRAEL POLICY

CNN recently released a series of polls on the U.S. electorate. Polls concerning the support for Israel indicate a historic negative shift from 2022 to 2026.

1. Young Republicans under 50,   2022 +28    2026  -16  = 44% drop

2. Mod. Liberal Republicans                  +26             -  9  =  35% drop

3. Men under 50                                      - 3              - 47  =  50% drop

4. Mod-  Conservative Dems                  +3               -55  =  58% drop

5. All Adults                                            +13             -23  =  36% drop

6.                                   Israel  + 28          Palestinians  +11%

While we may hear that any criticism of Israel's policies are labeled as Anti-Semitism, these polls indicate that support for the state of Israel's policies has experienced a dramatic shift. 

I would expect that after Israel's massacre of over 300 Lebanese civilians in an attempt to coerce the Lebanese government to engage in a civil war with Hezbollah have further damaged their cause.  

The policy of assassinations of the leadership of their opponents even during negotiations, has further damaged Israel's support. While the above polls focus on the U.S. electorate, probably the strongest supporters globally of Israel, what is the support in the rest of the world? 

After the attack on Israel in 2023, they had the sympathy of the world on their side, but due to policies of Netanyahu and his ability to gain support for his policies in Israel and in the U.S. government, Israel has squandered that opportunity for meaningful advancement and created a situation that may be irreparable. This decline in support cannot be improved by narrative and propaganda, but only by real change of direction by Israeli policies. 

Another part of the poll indicted a 363% rise in google searches for Aipac, Israel's lobby. A search of  "Track Aipac" indicates that only single digits of Senators Representatives and Presidential candidates does not take money from this lobby. Many in the many millions of dollars.

Many may dismiss these polls and even the fact that it is published as an attack on Israel or anti-Semitism, that tactic and narrative will no longer fly and only real reform of Israel's policies will improve public support. Israel is the country most dependent on public support in the world, whether it acknowledges or not. 

Day 46, Moving the world away from the U.S.

 COLLATERAL DAMAGE INTENSIFIES

TRANSITION TO ECONOMIC PRESSURES

Yesterday, the new U.S. strategy of blockading oil exports by Iran began. Of course, Iran's position is, if they can't export, neither will anyone in the Gulf. We will see who cries uncle first, but the consequences of this approach are multiplying by the day.

The next shoe to drop may be the closing of the Red Sea, that would then eliminate 32 % of the world's oil with the closing of both choke points.

South Korea is now in a verbal bout with Israel, accusing Israel of war crimes and other illegal and humanitarian crimes. Japan is also not happy with this situation. We can guess the same applies to all of southeast Asia.

It must be made clear the U.S. Navy is not anywhere near the strait of Hormuz, but 600 miles out in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. They plan on stopping all ships exiting the Gulf, will they detain Chinese, Indian, South Korean and Japanese ships? This is in effect an act of war, we will have to wait to see if anyone will put this to the test. 

If this blockade would last long enough, I doubt if it will, to put the Chinese economy in trouble, the risk of war with China will increase dramatically. The U.S. fleet is now 7000 miles from the U.S. and many of its bases are over 1000 miles. Challenging the submarine fleets of China and Russia would inevitably result in serious U.S. losses, losses that could not be easily replaced. 

China and Russia could combine their engineering and construction capacity to accelerate pipelines from Russia to China and India supplying oil to all the U.S. allies, that would quickly become former allies. 

Again, the problem with a solution is Israel wants Iran destroyed, made into a unstable chaotic and desolate nation, like Libya and Syria. It is suspected that Trump has bought into the decades old neocon policy of obtaining control of the world's oil assets as a way of maintaining Dollar reserve status and global political hegemony.  I question if a hollowed out U.S. financialized economy can support that policy, but they may be willing to take down the world economy in a last ditch attempt. That leaves a sustained economic and slow picking away at Iran similar to the 15 years it took to overturn Syria, but they need to speed that process way up.

The narrative of Israel against Turkey is heating up dramatically, they are indeed setting the stage for war with Turkey, something that again would require U.S. assistance. Turkey, a NATO member, has a formidable military and its ground troops could not be matched by Israel.

Looking down from 100,000 feet in an objective way, indicates that Israel is entering a time that its existence is increasingly in doubt. Israel has lost its global support, it is engaging in wars in an unsustainable way.  Netanyahu's trial is again put off for 2 more months, must Israel stay at war to protect Netanyahu? Without a political change of direction, its future looks very dim. 

Day 45, Blockade the strait? More desperation.

 FAKE NEGOTIATIONS END QUICKLY

CAN U.S. AFFORD ESCALATION?

As we enter the 7th week of this Iranian, Israeli and U.S. war, we are now offered another desperate attempt to bring down Iran, a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, something that last week was a priority to open. The latest talks at least neutralized Trump's ultimatums and threats to end the Iranian civilisation, a dramatic dog and pony show that Iran agreed to participate in, fully knowing that it was all about Trump saving face. One can imagine that Iran felt it worth the effort to portray themselves as the responsible actors and the U.S. as floundering around and without any solutions. 

Closing the strait will bring about another outcry from the world's oil importing countries, who probably are willing to pay Iran the fee for an open strait, will they now have to pay the U.S. to end the blockade? We can expect that this latest strategy will end quickly, if it even happens at all.

Russia and China will not easily allow Iran to be overthrown, as its position is essential for their long term economic stability.

The Gulf countries that hitched their wagon to the U.S. and accommodated Israel in an effort to stabilize the region, must now be in a dilemma as to how to preserve their economic future. One must expect that they will soon realize that their oil assets are also going to be a target of their devious partners. Will they soon look to Iran or China as a new partner? Can they find a way for an amicable divorce from their present partners? Do their populations hold the same view as the leadership?

Listening to Netanyahu recently giving a speech to the domestic audience, he portrayed Israel as number 1 in cyber technology, this may be true. He went on to proclaim that Israel was going to be a world power, a delusion at best. Without its partnership with the U.S. it would most likely, not even be a regional power. It has also hitched its wagon to the U.S. and has grown in influence, due to this arrangement, an arrangement that has contributed to the U.S. amassing huge debt and a dropping global public opinion for both.  While Israel has a formidable air force, due to U.S. weapons, and a substantial defense for the same reason, their ground operation has yet to end Hamas and Hezbollah is inflicting serious damage to them in Lebanon. They resort to more genocidal attacks on civilians in their frustration.

The increase in inflammatory rhetoric with Turkey, indicates they are in the process of setting the stage for war with Turkey, a NATO member. They are causing unrest in Cyprus, part of which is under control of Turkey. Some in Israel believe they are as big threat to Israel as Iran.

The Israeli army is stretched to the breaking point and one would expect that, if there would not be a ban on Israli's exiting the country, a new exodus would be underway. I expect the population has decreased in the last 3 years.

No matter how advanced ones technology, a population of 8 million can never be a world power. An expansion of territory into Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Egypt will not cause a mass increase in Jewish immigrants into the nation. 

While the supply of precision guided ordnance and interceptors are a limiting factor in this war, the risk of a economic crisis is rising as oil prices begin a chain reaction of losses, defaults and derivative implosions that may be more effective in limiting the ability for war. Those dependent on others will be the most vulnerable.

Day 42, Ceasefire, Dramatic ploy to escape ultimatums?

 ARE TALKS TODAY JUST SHOWMANSHIP?

U.S. CONTINUES TO LOSE CREDIBILITY

One can not help but speculate that this whole ceasefire and agreeing to negotiate Iran's 10 point plan is nothing more than a dramatic ploy to escape the consequences of Trump's series of ultimatums that Iran essentially ignored. In fact, when Trump issued his most dramatic ultimatum of the "End of Civilization" Iran ended any communications with Pakistan. They just prepared for the worst, which would have escalated into an economic disaster for the world. Then came the last minute acceptance of Iran's proposal, which is now claimed to not be the terms that they agreed to. Today, we can expect that talks will go nowhere and hostilities will resume at any time or when a plan B or C is organized.

Last weekend's dramatic rescue of the missing Colonel now appears to be much more, with all the hardware and other unexplained details many now believe this was an attempt for a covert mission on the nuclear material in Isfahan, that was aborted with the shooting down of the F15. This would explain the frustration coming out of the white house. 

Israel's attacks in Lebanon, which Pakistan and others admit where part of the ceasefire, just enhances the appearance that Israel is not under the control of the U.S. Some believe it is the reverse that the U.S. is under the control of Israel, but this may again just make it possible to blame Israel when things go bad.

While everyone is focused on the hostilities between the U.S., Iran and Israel, it does not address the root of all this continuing violence in the region. Without a resolution of what will become of the residents of Palestine, this conflict will never end. Israel's plan to just either force them out or kill them is not a realistic option. At present, it is not likely that this will end without an intervention by the major powers both regional and global. 

Leaders of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the U.S., Russia and China should gather and negotiate a plan that may need to change borders significantly, compensate any who are displaced on by both sides and possibly build a wall between them. A limit on arms to both sides and intervention by this coalition to enforce peaceful compliance.  The state of Israel was created by international decision, now maybe it is time to fix the problem that they created.

Day 41, Ceasefire on life support.

ISRAEL KILLS 254 CIVILIANS IN BEIRUT

UAE AND KUWAIT ATTACK IRAN

The ceasefire has lasted less than one day, while it appears Iran and the U.S. attempted to honor the commitment, other actors in the region believed it was a time for military advantage. The UAE and Kuwait attacked an island in Iranian territory and Iran responded in kind. Israel launched a new campaign called, "Eternal Darkness",  by bombing apartment buildings in Beirut killing 254 and injuring 1165 civilians. This prompted Iran to again close traffic through the Hormuz strait.

The New York times has released an article concerning the meeting in the White House where Netanyahu did a video presentation on the benefits of going to war with Iran. The U.S. CIA director labeled the plan farcical and Marco Rubio labeled it as Bull shit. It was opposed by J.D.Vance and the military. It appears someone on the inside thought it important to leak this meeting, supposed to have happened on Feb., 11, 2026. 

While it seems there is some confusion about the 10 point plan that both Iran and Trump consider as a basis for negotiation. Below is what it supposedly contains.

1. Non-aggression treaty for the future.

2. Iran will retain control of Strait.

3. Iran can enrich for commercial purposes.

4. Lifting of Primary sanctions.

5. Lifting of secondary sanctions.

6. Termination of UN security council resolutions condemning Iran.

7. Termination of IAEA resolutions against Iran.

8. Payment of compensation to Iran.

9. Withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region.

10. Cessation of war on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

Of course it is a framework for negotiations and a permanent treaty would be insured by other actors. Much of this could have been negotiated without war.

While many will find it objectionable, there will not be peace in the region without 

sincere efforts to deal with the Palestinian issue, Over 72,000 have died in Gaza and over 1000 in the west bank as violence against the unarmed residents of those areas continues. It is time that the major countries of the world get together and come up with a resolution of this matter and enforce its implementation. Obviously it is clear that those parties will never come to a resolution, short of complete annihilation of their opponents. It is time for a comprehensive peace agreement for the region and this may be the optimine time.

 

Day 40, Ceasefire, Prepare for phase 3.

 PAUSE IN HOSTILITIES IS NOT PEACE

LITTLE CHANCE WAR IS OVER

Last night a ceasefire was announced, it seems that Iran and U.S. and even Israel agreed to stop hostilities in Iran and the gulf. This is supposed to last for 2 weeks and includes free passage through the strait of Hormuz. Free, means free flow but may not mean without tolls.

One must assume that Iran understands that every ceasefire with Israel in history has not lasted very long, over 700 Palestinians have died since the last ceasefire in Gaza. Ceasefires with the U.S. are likely not that permanent as illustrated by Minx one and two with Russia that were just pauses to allow Ukraine to rearm. We can only assume that this ceasefire was about desperation of high gas prices with political implications and Israel needing a break and a restocking of missile defenses.

What Iran's strategy is will remain to be seen. Maybe they can restock and reorganize while the U.S. and Israel do the same. It is unlikely that the U.S. and Israel will allow Iran to remain standing in the long run, unless they are physically unable to destroy them. This ceasefire is just buying time to come up with a new plan, even possibly amassing a large ground force, which could take several months. 

China, the real object of this war, understands this as does Russia, we can only assume they have their own cards to play during this ceasefire. 

The big elephant that no one is talking about is the massive U.S. debt, massive deficits for the foreseeable future, the proposed cutting of social programs to enhance the military budget by another 50%, the growing resistance of buyers of U.S. debt and then of course domestic political opposition to endless war. Sooner or later the domestic political and economic situation will eventually be the only restraint on endless foreign wars.

Day 39, Goal may be control of Iran's oil.

 NO PEACE, ALL ABOUT OIL

DESTRUCTION OF GULF, NOT A PROBLEM

We hear all the attempts to describe the strategy in this continuing war and they are all secondary to the real goal, control of Iran's oil. Yes, it would be nice if Iran would just surrender and hand over the control of the oil, similar to what happened to Venezuela, but if it become necessary to destroy Iran and the gulf countries, that will only open up more opportunities. It has to be considered, that this is the plan all along. 

In fact, it is becoming obvious that the second Trump administration has been focused on retaining U.S. hegemony by controlling the global oil resources. We saw the set up begin by the increase in military spending, the withdrawal of material support from Ukraine, that was needed for the middle east campaign. The capture of Venezuelan oil and then the build up for the war on Iran. So far, internal revolution aided by the CIA and Mossad has not worked, destruction to bring about surrender has not worked, so it will most likely be total destruction of the ability for Iran to function. This will support Israel's goal and then allow the U.S. to take control of Iranian oil as a first step to the control of all Gulf oil.

The colleterial damage to the Gulf countries will make taking control of that oil much more easy and the destruction can be blamed on Iran. 

One must suspect that Trump understands that his domestic agenda is coming to an end, he is now free to focus on satisfying the Neo-colonialists and Neocons in attempting to diminish BRICS and hinder the economic prosperity of China and other Asian countries. Opposition at home can rant and rave, but the war will go on. Israel will be on board as it expands into Lebanon, the west bank and Syria.

Of course, that all depends on all this working out, eventually it will create a global economic crisis and can Israel endure the attacks from Iran. While U.S. prosperity will decline, it may still be better off than the rest of the world, making the U.S. still the best performing, as compared to the rest. Even the destruction of Israel will be just so much collateral damage in exchange for the ability to control global oil supplies and hence retain the dominate U.S. position in the world.