Will AI produce wealth?

GOVERNMENTS MAY BE BIGGEST CUSTOMERS

WILL AID IN EXPANDING SURVEILLANCE STATE

AI has become the biggest source of speculative profit in the stock market. It is estimated that 75 to 80% of the stock market gains in 2025 were related to AI stocks. It brings back memories of the .com boom and bust of the past. While I suspect there will be success stories in AI, I have yet to understand how this new phenomenon will translate to more food, energy or improvement in the standard of living of the general population. 

So far,  it appears the biggest customer is government, for either military applications or for expanding the surveillance state. I suppose that it could eliminate a lot of jobs and costs in the bureaucracy, but only time will tell if it will be used in that way.  I also believe that there will be a massive bust in these companies as the best and those with the applications that can produce wealth will survive and prosper. With the advent of the internet, those companies and applications that increase sales and revenue out lasted those that did not. In most cases it was able to facilitate the movement of goods and services to more people more efficiently.   

So far, AI appears to be mostly about collecting data. We hear of massive data centers rising everywhere, with there thirst for energy. A thirst that may add to the cost to the public, but will it benefit the public or just make data about the populace a commodity. A commodity that will not likely produce any product or resource needed for human needs.

If AI is going to be used to better surveil and control the population one has to wonder, why. Does government now view its citizens with suspicion and will AI make it easier to identify those that may not be willing to easily conform to government plans. 

It seems the world is hell bent, or at least the elites and governments, about the possibilities of AI, all to be paid for by the taxpayers. There needs to be a better explanation of how this new technology will add to the wellbeing of the general population.

 

Day 66. U.S. goal is control of global oil.

 ASSUMED PATH TO GLOBAL CONTROL

ALL DEPENDENT ON U.S. NAVY

We must assume that the crisis in Iran will continue, no matter the consequences to the global economic system. It is now clear that oil is the ultimate weapon to be used to maintain political control of the global economic system.  While many assume the Iran war was a blunder or a plan originating in Israel, it is far more. It is just one step in a attempt to maintain control of the global economy. 

It seems Trump's second term is all in on the ongoing plan of the neocon elements in the U.S. to maintain U.S. global hegemony. This plan started with the first Bush administration, if not sooner, and has been followed by every administration with the possible exception of the first Trump administration. The hope is to maintain global control by controlling global oil supplies. So far, the U.S., besides being the largest producer of oil, at least for now, controls the oil of Venezuela and Iraq, and now all the oil coming out of the Persian gulf. Don't expect the U.S. to relinquish this power anytime soon. 

As the U.S. has focused on the persian gulf, they have delegated the diminishing of Russian oil to, Europe and Ukraine., who have been increasing their attacks on Russian oil production. I suspect the so called estrangement with NATO is just so much theater. It seems Ukraine is now more focused on attacking Russian oil production than even defending their territory and the EU is upping pressure on Russian navigation, everywhere it can.

With the blockade of the strait of Hormuz and pressure being exerted on Indonesia to give the U.S. access to controlling the strait of Malacca, the U.S. can control most petroleum products destined for China and all the southeast Asian countries all either part of BRICS or ASEAN alternatives to U.S. controlled economic system.

The attempt is to force the use of the dollar in international trade and hope to continue the U.S. ability to use sanctions and other pressure to maintain political control. The gulf nations were beginning to trade their oil for other currencies, with the U.S. controlling the Strait of Hormuz that will come to an end. 

While there has been success so far, Europe has been stripped of their access to Russian oil, by sanctions and the destruction of the oil pipeline, the big target now is China and southeast asia. So far, India has resisted giving up its access to Russian oil and China has just in the last few days refused to adhere to U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil. Trump is expected to visit China in ten days, and we can expect an attempt to intimidate China.

While all this seems to be well underway, no one has yet to challenge the U.S. on the high seas. The big enforcer of all this is the U.S. Navy, the undisputed, as least so far, dominant Navy in the world. The question is, can the U.S. maintain this Navy, with the economic crisis of debt, fiscal irresponsibility and a manufacturing base that is questionable in maintaining and renewing this naval power.

The U.S. has 11 aircraft carriers and only 3 are in service, and one of those is now headed for the U.S. There are serious morale problems reported due to long overextended duty cycles and the same applies so the U.S. reserve system decimated by long and repeated call ups. As this attempt to control the oil increases, it will be a serious threat to many and can the U.S. increase its Naval presence and can it replace any vessels damaged or destroyed? Can it find the qualified sailors to keep this fleet in service? 

As this use of the NAVY increases, we can expect pushback for those affected by diminished oil resources, the U.S. Navy is the obvious target, and there are several that have substantial capabilities to challenge the NAVY dominance.  

 

Day 63, Economic pressures rising.

 RESUME MILITARY ACTION SOON, OR GO HOME

TOLL ON ECONOMY, MIDTERM ELECTIONS 

All indications are that an attack on Iran is imminent. Today is May 1, and primary elections will be happening in the weeks ahead, it can be expected that this war will have some influence on even these elections, but with 7 months until the general election, time is running out to have some sort of conclusion to this conflict. That, coupled with the fact that economic pressure is building, particularly in other parts of the world, but it will also affect economic condition here at home.

It is very unlikely that a revolution is in the making in Iran. While sanctions and the blockade will damage the economy it will not happen in the immediate future. A major attack will assuredly be responded to by Iran and will further damage the global economy. A military operation to gain control of the strait of Hormuz is a real gamble, failure would be catastrophic to both Trump and the U.S. image. It seems the nuclear material is no longer at the top of the list of conditions. It is all about the global oil supply and Iran at present has control of the strait of Hormuz. This will only intensify with every passing day.

Possibly the best solution would be to back off, allow Iran to regulate traffic through the strait and hope that the global economy will recover quickly. it would be a humbling experience, but would at least be a predictable outcome that would not worsen the global economic system.

Trump could still claim victory that Iran's nuclear ability is devastated and that its economy has been seriously damaged. It would also allow revisiting this issue after the elections. In fact, if the elections go badly, Trump will only have foreign relations left for the rest of his presidency, his domestic policy already disrupted by this war will then be nonexistent. In fact, if the border wall is not completed by Jan. 2027, it will most likely never be completed.

It appears as though Trump has shifted from, "Make America Great" at home to have a large military and attempt to rule the world. It will end as all such endeavors in history have ended, with failure and further decline at home. 

Day 62, Countdown to military escalation.

 TRUMP GOING DOWN 

NO MORE TALKING DOWN THE OIL PRICE 

Market price of oil today is $106 a barrel, actual price in Asia is over $200 a barrel. It is the ultimate pressure on the Trump administration to make a decision on the direction of this war with Iran. It is unlikely that there is any real effort for a peaceful solution. Iran will not sacrifice their future sovournity for a temporary promise without any assurance that sanctions and war will not be in the future. Trump will not do any deal that will make him appear to have capitulated. Israel and the Christian Zionists want Iran to look like Gaza. The Neocons have been anticipating the control of Iran's oil for 46 years.

It appears that the war will now enter a new phase, as military resources are pouring into the region. Iran understands this and is preparing to respond accordingly. With the price of oil now increasing by the day and all the artificial restraints on the prices coming to an end, resumption of war looks imminent, again. 

Trump has only one way to escape this coming catastrophe and that is jettison all the warmongers and return to his pre-election campaign promises. It is time for him to stand up, no matter the consequences, if he has any hope to avoid surpassing Jimmy Carter as the worst president in history, so far. We will see if he really does have a spine left or is under the control of all the worst elements in Washington and Tel Aviv. 

Day 61, Time for new approach?

 BOTH UKRAINE AND IRAN WARS COULD BE ENDED QUICKLY?

COSTS AND CONSEQUENCES WOULD BE INCALCULABLE

We continually hear that the war in Ukraine will end when Putin decides that the cost of continuing is too high to continue. Then we hear a similar narrative concerning the Iran war, Iran will submit when they consider the cost too high. In both cases, Russia and Iran consider these conflicts an existential fight for the survival of their nations. 

Russia, we are told is not winning and the conflict is at a standstill, this narrative is all about hoping for a positive outcome for Ukraine and its benefactor NATO. We no longer hear the narrative that Putin wants to reassemble the Soviet Union, that if not stopped in Ukraine, he will march to the Atlantic. A contradiction if anyone really believes they are stymied in Ukraine. Russia could end this war in a very consolidated time if they decided to reap devastation on Ukraine by using their capabilities and likely without the use of nuclear weapons. There has been continuous debate in Russia by many to end this as soon as possible, it has been rejected by Putin and those presently in power.

Few are willing to admit that his war is about NATO expansion, the encirclement of Russia, a clear security threat to Russia.  It is always the narrative about the expansionist hunger of Putin. No one ever explains what Russia would want from western Europe, by expanding westward. Russia has the largest store of natural resources in the world and would likely want a peaceful existence to develop those resources for the prosperity of Russia. Before this conflict, Russia had a small but technologically advanced military and of course, nuclear weapons. Russia was not threatening anyone and attempted to come to a resolution of NATO expansion by peaceful means. While many would rather entertain that Russia is a villian, the reality is the west covets the resources of Russia, wants to own them, not buy them, as this would increase the wealth of Russia, considered a threat for the future. All competitors must be contained so as they are less wealthy than the U.S. and western Europe. Forget about mutual prosperity, something that was working quite well with the supply of energy from Russia to western Europe.

While many still want to focus on nuclear weapons in Iran, it is clear to anyone who wants to see the truth that Iran did not have nuclear weapons or a desire for them. They engaged in and revealed their enhanced enrichment only after the U.S. pulled out of the nuclear deal that they had complied with. The U.S. never fulfilled their part to end economic sanctions, which have been ongoing since 1979. The enhanced enrichment was a strategy to being back a negotiated settlement, There is no desire of any such settlement by the U.S., it wants the oil and Israel wants Iran to be far weaker than Israel.  The U.S. has been hoping to topple the government of Iran since 1979, by one means or another, all because it covets the oil and other resources of Iran. Again, keep Iran contained, as if left to engage in free enterprise they would become wealthy and that is to be opposed. 

In Ukraine, if Russia decides to take out all the bridges and rail in Ukraine, which it has resisted doing, hoping for a gradual decimation of Ukraine's ability to resist, it could hasten the end of this conflict.  If Europe truly wants so raise an army and go to war with Russia, the whole of western Eurasia will be destroyed in the process.

If the U.S. wants to do the same to Iran, it will result in a global economic downturn that will last for decades. 

Much of the reason for a strong desire to double down rather than really seek a long term peaceful solution is Hubris, needing to be a winner, both for NATO and the U.S. . While many desire all out war to come to a conclusion, a realization that a new cooperative seeking of mutual prosperity, may still be possible. Can it be accomplished by real negotiations or does the world first need to experience global catastrophe.

WW3 is consuming what is left of the Global order.

 IS TODAY'S WARFARE BECOMING UNAFFORDABLE

MASSIVE COSTS, LITTLE RESULTS

Today, we see the Iran war at a standstill, the Ukrainian war now in its 4th year and no end in sight. The cost of the Ukraine war, not only to Russia, but to the EU countries and the U.S. just in material cost may be close to $1 trillion dollars. Then there is the damage to infrastructure, another $1 Trillion and the loss of revenue to the whole EU many more Trillions.  It all could have been avoided with a neutral non aligned Ukraine that was positioned to be the most prosperous nation in Europe. With no end in sight this war will drain the resources of all involved, with no hope of economic prosperity for years to come. We hear the call for more weapons, raising armies and continued efforts to stay on the same path.  New leadership is needed all across Europe or they will continue to descend into the economic abyss.

With the Iran war now entering its 3rd month, it seems the new strategy is to attempt to force capitulation by economic blockade. It seems it is now a series of "let's try this". We hear that capitulation is imminent, very similar to the predictions about Russia. Is it realistic to believe that the Iranian people really believe that the U.S. and Israel have their best interests in mind. I suspect that no matter how bad it will become they will suck it up and hunker down. This war is well over $100 billion in material cost to the U.S.,  unaccounted costs of the resources provided to Israel and the Gulf countries, $100's of billions in infrastructure damage to U.S. bases in the region.  Incalculable costs to the global economy, possibly approaching $1 Trillion and counting. Yet there is no end in sight. Mostly brought about by Israel's unwillingness to solve any disputes by any other means than U.S. military power.

The U.S. alone has probably wasted over $10 trillion in costs in mideast wars over that last 3 decades.

As bad as the global situation is, it is not all, A campaign is beginning by Israel to focus on Turkey as its next dragon to be slain, similar propaganda as we have seen in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Iran. 

Then there is Africa were we see  conflict increasing daily often by Islamic mercenaires supported by western powers who are engaging in terrorism, assassinations and attempt to overthrow new governments, who hope to finally end colonial exploitation by western powers. 

The reality is, we are already in the midst of WW3, it is an effort to continue the post WW2 global order that is now exhausting itself in an attempt to stop the loss of that power, A power that is already lost due to massive debts and a decimated manufacturing base. It is similar to a double or nothing throw of the dice, that appears to most likely produce a big nothing.

Day 59, Blockade continues, Iran controls exit.

   GLOBAL ECONOMY CANNOT SUSTAIN PRESENT SITUATION

WILL IRAN OR GLOBAL ECONOMY BLINK FIRST?

While the war is still on pause, the strategy, at least for now, seems to be an attempt to strangle the Iranian economy, especially its oil revenues. It is also strangling the oil revenues of the other oil producing countries in the region, who have debts and also a complete loss of their travel destination revenue. It is doubtful that this can continue much longer or that the oil prices can be restrained by talk of imminent negotiations. It seems no negotiations are really in the immediate future.

The U.S. does not actually have ships in the strait of Hormuz, but are stationed at the entrance to the Arabian sea near the Pakistani border. At this point the sea is over 350 miles wide and spreads to over 1500 miles. The U.S. has 9 destroyers and 3 other ships capable of policing this area. Ships that stay close to the Pakistani and Indian border in territorial waters are not being stopped by the U.S.. Iran is still allowing limited traffic out of the strait at its discretion.

While those 12 ships can limit the flow of traffic, it may be very difficult to cut off traffic completely. Once ships get past the barricade line the sea widens dramatically and decisions have to be made as to which ships to pursue and if ships are seized they will need to be escorted by at least one ship to a place of holding. This soon gets to be a difficult job at best.

Israel has stated that they are ready to resume hostilities, but it seems at least for now, Trump is reluctant to further risk the effects of renewed fighting. This situation can not go on indefinitely and it is unlikely a negotiated peace that is acceptable to all is possible. A real dilemma that foresees no good result.