WW3 is consuming what is left of the Global order.

 IS TODAY'S WARFARE BECOMING UNAFFORDABLE

MASSIVE COSTS, LITTLE RESULTS

Today, we see the Iran war at a standstill, the Ukrainian war now in its 4th year and no end in sight. The cost of the Ukraine war, not only to Russia, but to the EU countries and the U.S. just in material cost may be close to $1 trillion dollars. Then there is the damage to infrastructure, another $1 Trillion and the loss of revenue to the whole EU many more Trillions.  It all could have been avoided with a neutral non aligned Ukraine that was positioned to be the most prosperous nation in Europe. With no end in sight this war will drain the resources of all involved, with no hope of economic prosperity for years to come. We hear the call for more weapons, raising armies and continued efforts to stay on the same path.  New leadership is needed all across Europe or they will continue to descend into the economic abyss.

With the Iran war now entering its 3rd month, it seems the new strategy is to attempt to force capitulation by economic blockade. It seems it is now a series of "let's try this". We hear that capitulation is imminent, very similar to the predictions about Russia. Is it realistic to believe that the Iranian people really believe that the U.S. and Israel have their best interests in mind. I suspect that no matter how bad it will become they will suck it up and hunker down. This war is well over $100 billion in material cost to the U.S.,  unaccounted costs of the resources provided to Israel and the Gulf countries, $100's of billions in infrastructure damage to U.S. bases in the region.  Incalculable costs to the global economy, possibly approaching $1 Trillion and counting. Yet there is no end in sight. Mostly brought about by Israel's unwillingness to solve any disputes by any other means than U.S. military power.

The U.S. alone has probably wasted over $10 trillion in costs in mideast wars over that last 3 decades.

As bad as the global situation is, it is not all, A campaign is beginning by Israel to focus on Turkey as its next dragon to be slain, similar propaganda as we have seen in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Iran. 

Then there is Africa were we see  conflict increasing daily often by Islamic mercenaires supported by western powers who are engaging in terrorism, assassinations and attempt to overthrow new governments, who hope to finally end colonial exploitation by western powers. 

The reality is, we are already in the midst of WW3, it is an effort to continue the post WW2 global order that is now exhausting itself in an attempt to stop the loss of that power, A power that is already lost due to massive debts and a decimated manufacturing base. It is similar to a double or nothing throw of the dice, that appears to most likely produce a big nothing.

Day 59, Blockade continues, Iran controls exit.

   GLOBAL ECONOMY CANNOT SUSTAIN PRESENT SITUATION

WILL IRAN OR GLOBAL ECONOMY BLINK FIRST?

While the war is still on pause, the strategy, at least for now, seems to be an attempt to strangle the Iranian economy, especially its oil revenues. It is also strangling the oil revenues of the other oil producing countries in the region, who have debts and also a complete loss of their travel destination revenue. It is doubtful that this can continue much longer or that the oil prices can be restrained by talk of imminent negotiations. It seems no negotiations are really in the immediate future.

The U.S. does not actually have ships in the strait of Hormuz, but are stationed at the entrance to the Arabian sea near the Pakistani border. At this point the sea is over 350 miles wide and spreads to over 1500 miles. The U.S. has 9 destroyers and 3 other ships capable of policing this area. Ships that stay close to the Pakistani and Indian border in territorial waters are not being stopped by the U.S.. Iran is still allowing limited traffic out of the strait at its discretion.

While those 12 ships can limit the flow of traffic, it may be very difficult to cut off traffic completely. Once ships get past the barricade line the sea widens dramatically and decisions have to be made as to which ships to pursue and if ships are seized they will need to be escorted by at least one ship to a place of holding. This soon gets to be a difficult job at best.

Israel has stated that they are ready to resume hostilities, but it seems at least for now, Trump is reluctant to further risk the effects of renewed fighting. This situation can not go on indefinitely and it is unlikely a negotiated peace that is acceptable to all is possible. A real dilemma that foresees no good result.

Day 56. No win for Israel or U.S. in Iran war.

 ALL OPTIONS HAVE BAD RESULTS

IRAN WANT CONCLUSIVE END, NOT POSTPONEMENT

Now 8 weeks and no end in sight for the Iran, Israel, U.S. war. All options will lead to negative results, some will lead to catastrophic economic and political results. some will lead to diminished U.S. credibility, all will end with negative results for Israel. 

Option 1, is the threat of destroying Iran's infrastructure in a massive escalation of the war. This will trigger a response by Iran in destroying the infrastructure of the gulf countries and Israel. It seems everyone has concluded that they can effectivity do just that. This will lead to the political disintegration of the gulf countries and a global economic crisis. Can Israel survive more war?

Option 2, declare victory and end the conflict, without any real peace agreement. Iran will then control the Strait and reap financial benefits by it's tolls, the U.S. will lose credibility and Israel will be very disappointed. 

Option3, keep up the blockade, without resuming military action and hope Iran will be forced to capitulate. The question is will the global economy and the political prospects in the Gulf implode before Iran.

Option 4, end the conflict by negotiation, a negotiation that can only be accomplished with Iran gaining many positive benefits, like an end to sanctions, ability to engage in nuclear activity for at least peaceful purposes and guarantees of no future military action. A deal similar to the one, that the U.S. withdrew from, but done by treaty with more guarantees that it will not be ripped up by some future president..

Option 5, destroy Iran with Nuclear weapons, all bets are off were that would end. 

The problem is Israel wants Iran destroyed as a viable country, it wants it to look like Gaza or Syria. It can not accomplish that without U.S. assistance. If it tried, it would be destroyed by Iran and its other enemies. Israel understands that it has lost its public support all around the world and this will be its last opportunity to destroy Iran.

The Neocons have embarked on a decades long policy of controlling all mideast oil, they will resist any permanent change in that hope. 

Trump most likely cannot come out a winner in any option, he may be the lamest duck president in history, if this conflict drags on, and under the best conditions this conflict is many months from any real conclusion. Trump has allowed himself to be trapped by listening to both his real enemies and those who are only interested in what they perceive to be in their best interest. Iran was not really as weak as many claimed, and its population does not view the U.S. and Israel ever acting in the best interest of the Iranian people. They understand that Israel wants them destroyed and the U.S. covets their oil. There is no going back to pre-February 28, the future for all will be very different, no matter how this concludes.

Day 54, Ceasefire extended, expect escalation.

 HAS IRAN GIVEN UP ON NEGOTIATIONS?

CLOCK IS TICKING ON MANY FRONTS

It seems the negotiation charade is now over, Iran ignored all new attempts at another negotiation is Pakistan. It is reported that the Iranians showed up in Pakistan with a staff of 70, prepared for meaningful negotiations based on their 10 point plan. The U.S. showed up with Vance, accompanied by Kushner and Witcoff, who Iran has little confidence in, the result was that after continuous consultation with Trump and Netanyahu, Vance left for home. Iran has voiced the opinion that they will not negotiate under threats and will not meet until there's a serious negotiation.

So, it seems the U.S. forces have replenished their ordinance and it is likely that a intense resumption of hostilities is imminent, again. Iran claims that their response will be equally intense. Meanwhile the strait remains under the control of Iran. As long as the strait is closed, the global energy crisis will worsen by the day.

It seems the populations worldwide are no longer easily convinced to endorse war, particularly wars of choice and aggression, rather than defense. I suspect that if there was a real threat to the U.S., volunteers would be numerous, I think the last time the U.S. was attacked by a foreign nation at home was 1812, and of course 1941 in Hawaii. Be aware of false flag possibilities to raise the favorbidily of more war.

Yesterday there were reports that the U.S. is increasing the maximum age for recruits to 42, from 27 before. They may also now have tattoos and possible marijuana convictions. Will they also raise the draft age to 42? 

Germany, now convinced that they are under threat from Russia, is attempting to expand their military without much success, they recently stated that recruits could be up to 70. 

In the U.S., Palantir a technology company that provides targeting and other intelligence information to Israel and the U.S. is recommending national service be mandatory in the U.S. War becomes more difficult, if no one wants to go.

In the U.S. no one ever talks about the damage that has been done to the reserve system that in the last 30 years has been used as a supplement to the regular armed forces often demanding several one year tours of duty. This has resulted in high levels of divorce and broken and financially devastated families, unable to pay mortgages etc. The reserve system was intended to be just that, in case of serious threats to the nation, not a manpower supply for continuous war. The failure to meet goals for recruitment will continue.

We can expect that escalation will be the next step. Israel want Iran devastated, the neocons want the oil. War is far easier to get into, than out of. 

Day 53, Ceasefire ends tomorrow.

 NO CONFIRMATION OF NEW TALKS

IT APPEARS U.S. NOT READY FOR SERIOUS TALKS

While we hear reports of the imminent travel of U.S. negotiators to Islamabad, there is no new confirmation of talks. Iran indicates that they see no change of position from the U.S. other than surrender. Iran also indicates that they are prepared for the next round of hostilities. The U.S. walked out of the talks last weeks and Iran claimed that their negotiators were threatened, they said last week that they would  not return to Islamabad as they feared that they would be murdered enroute. They also reported that the U.S. negotiators were not prepared to make any decisions and spent a lot of time talking to Washington and Tel Aviv. 

There is no one on the U.S. team who has ever been to Iran and knows little of Iran or has any experience or knowledge of nuclear negotiations. The type of negotiations necessary for a serious resolution would take many weeks and be staffed with people who understand the subjects being discussed. Iran may be correct in assuming these so called talks are just so much theater without any serious efforts at a real solution.

The U.S. congress passed an aid package for Israel that was not about defense but about the destruction of Lebanon, it was made up of 2000 lb. bombs and bulldozers, so it seems the U.S. is paying for the leveling of Lebanon similar to what has happened in GAZA.

The UAE is talking about seeking reparations from the U.S. to damage to its country caused by the U.S. attack on Iran.

We can expect more dramatics today as the ceasefire is about to end, Trump will either need to attack, with all the consequences, or look for some other solution. Israel and the neocons want more war, there probably will be more war.

Day 52, Standoff at the Strait.

 OPEN, BLOCKADE, CLOSED AGAIN

MISSED OPPORTUNITY TO ALLOW CAPTIVES TO FLEE 

This weekend, Iran opened the strait of Hormuz to all traffic in response to the ceasefire in Lebanon. Trump welcomed the opening, but insisted that the U.S. would block all traffic to and from Iran until Iran, in effect, surrenders,  Iran promptly again closed the strait to all traffic. This was a missed opportunity to allow all those stranded ships in the Persian gulf to exit, a humanitarian gesture overridden by Trump's desire to look tough.

So now with 2 more days to the end of the ceasefire the strait is closed and looks like that will be the case for the foreseeable future. While some believe that blockading the strait by the U.S. will cause Iran to capitulate, it is more likely to damage world energy supplies, before it has real effects on Iran's determination. Iran is mostly self sufficient in food and energy and still can import supplies from the Caspian sea and rail to the north. It appears that Trump will indeed, as predicted, be tied up in Iran for much longer than anticipated, if not for the rest of his presidency.

Of course we still hear the threats of military devastation to Iran if they persist, but Iran has also threatens to destroy much of the energy producing facilities and desalination plants in the region, if again attacked. Such a retaliation will then cause a global economic crisis that will no longer be able to be controlled by any narrative.  Attempts to secure the strait by force or take Kharg island will probably end in the same result.

Trump claimed that there were more talks in store, but Iran made it clear that they would no longer participate in mock negotiations that were merely more efforts to force capitulation or influence the energy or stock markets. 

So, it is indeed a classic standoff, a frustration for the greatest power on earth, especially from a country deemed inferior and not worthy of any respect. It is just the kind of situation were reasonable logical thinking can be overcome by rage and emotion, especially when the whole world is watching.

Day 49, U.S. goal is global dominance, ignore the rest.

CONTROL OF IRANIAN OIL ONE STEP 

MAYBE A PAUSE, BUT CONFLICT WILL CONTINUE 

Many find it hard to understand what the goals of the United States are, it is often characterized as no goal, or no plan, or chaos. It is clear there is a goal and it is proceeding. In fact, this goal has been advancing for the last 35 years, if not longer. The goal is retaining the United States dominate position in the world, both politically and economically. The problem is that the United States is losing that position economically with massive debt, corruption and fiscal irresponsibility. The dollar, the cornerstone of the U.S. economic dominance, is a shadow of it former status because of that fiscal irresponsibility.  The U.S. manufacturing base is continuing to decline and be uncompetitive in the global arena, this again is due to over regulation, crony capitalism and corruption. 

Many hoped that the U.S. was about to embark on a policy of reform and renewal through the age old process of good government and fiscal responsibility, weeding out the massive corruption at every level and embracing tried and true business practices. It appears that that has been rejected, Washington now believes that dominance can be retained and even enhanced by military power, coercion, bribery and brute force. It is the age old policy of empire, but an empire that has already lost its manufacturing ability to sustain that brute force and its economic power has been squandered by fiscal irresponsibility and corruption. The brute force policy of the last 35 years has resulted in massive debt, and a flight from the dollar, yet this policy is being doubled down on, hoping the U.S. can still dominate by gaining access to the resource of others.

The present step is gaining control of oil resources of Iran, it is not about any other reason that has been offered to justify this use of force. Control of Iranian oil and then the next step, control of all the Gulf oil, is believed to give the U.S. control of the economies of southeast Asia. Of course, the main target is China, which has been under assault by propaganda as an enemy of the U.S., hoping to unseat the U.S. as the global leader. All that China has done is embrace the good business practices of the an earlier U.S. and has reaped success. 

It is clear, we have demonized Iraq and then taken control its oil, we demonized Venezuela and have taken control its oil, we have demonized Iran in an effort to take control of its oil. We have demonized Russia to hopefully break it up and take control of its resources. If you view U.S. foreign policy in that light it is far easier to understand the plan. Expect to see a reason to go after Nigerian oil in the near future.

At present, the U.S. has lost domestic support for foreign wars, but we see the planned increase in defense or war spending by 50%, we hear calls for shifting production of our remaining manufacturing to war supplies. Then what is needed is massive support at home for more war that is usually accomplished by an assault on the U.S. similar to 911 or Pearl harbor. The intelligence community is now an expert at such projects.

Of course, much of the world now understands what is going on and so far has only reacted, even Iran only reacts to U.S. escalation. One may expect that our adversaries will soon decide that push back is necessary, first by economic means, shedding U.S. debt and embargoes of material to the U.S.. This will set off an escalating action and reaction that if not controlled will lead to global war. The future is not defined.

Many hoped that a new administration in Washington would understand that a new era of mutual prosperity and cooperation is or was possible, but it seems that rather than the hard work of reform and renewal and mutual cooperation it appears easier to continue the corruption and embrace a policy of brute force. A policy that looks unsustainable and will result in a further decline in the prosperity of the country.