What is the plan for Cuba?

 IF YOU BREAK IT, YOU WILL NEED TO FIX IT

LIKELY TO BE A U.S. DEPENDENT

It is seems there is much anticipation of the end of present Cuban government. The embargo surrounding Cuba has left the island without reliable electric and even a scarcity of food. Proponents believe that the present government cannot last much longer. One has to ask the questions, how is this going to be accomplished and who is going to take over politically in Cuba?

I don't see a viable opposition political movement ready to step in, if the present government falls. I doubt that the population of real Cubans, that is the Cubans who live there now and have lived under the present system, are the same culturally as the Cubans of pre 1960. They have been born and raised under a socialist dictatorship and culturally are far removed from their ancestors in Miami. I suspect very few pre-1960 Cubans are still alive. 

I recall in 1959 listening to my radio as I went to bed of Castro marching into Havana and Batista fleeing to the Dominican republic and then to Spain. I also recall the rejoicing in the U.S. with parades of excitement in New York city. Of course I have no idea what was behind the rise of Castro, one must believe that the CIA knew who Castro was and likely supported his revolution. They has already engineered regime changes in Guatemala and Iran. One has to wonder where they played by Castro or did their agreement go bad.

After 66 years of the present government, which seems to be much more laid back than under the original revolutionaries, the island, from watching travel documentaries, appears to be run down in every way and the population seems also to be very laid back, living the life hoped for by many U.S. socialists. One has to wonder if these real Cubans really want to be saved by the U.S. 

Saving Cuba, of course has been a dream for many U.S. politicians and former Cubans whose ancestors once lived there. Most of the Miami Cubans have never set foot in Cuba.

Again, the question is, who is going to run Cuba in the future? Will it be real Cubans or transplants from Miami? What will happen if Cubans receive the right to vote and then vote for people not acceptable to the U.S. government? Will it be back to sanctions and threats? Do the Cubans of today want their island to be filled with Casinos and resorts or offshore investment havens? Maybe they do, I really have no idea, but has anyone asked them?

No matter what, Cuba has no oil, just sugar and Cigars, both out of favor in the 21st century. Cuba is going to need billions of investment in infrastructure without the means to provide that, so it will be the responsibility of the U.S. to provide that investment, probably for decades. Cuba has primarily been dependent on the Soviet Union and then Venezuela, so it may be the U.S. turn to take over that responsibility. After all, we are the richest country in the world, and saving the Cubans is worth the cost. 

Last nuclear limitation treaty expires.

 ARE THESE DECISIONS BASED ON FALSE ASSUMPTIONS?

NO LIMITS, NO TRANSPARENCY, COLD WAR 2

Yesterday, the strategic nuclear arms treaty expired, it had been in place since 1991. Originally this treaty limited Nuclear warheads to 6000, then reduced them to 1550 in 2010. It was the last remaining treaty that came about after the breakup of the Soviet Union, All the treaties were ended by the United States.

Trump ended the intermediate range arms treaty in his first term. It was ended, with the advise of John Bolton in the supposed hope of eventually including China in the treaty. Other treaties that have expired is one that limited conventional arms in Europe and one that allowed open flights over each others territory to insure compliance.

Putin has proposed several time that Russia was willing to extend the current treaty for 1 year. His proposals were never responded to by Trump or any of his administration.  

There are indications that this administration is being advised that a new cold war will force Russia into economic problems by not being able to compete in an arms race with the United States. This philosophy is based on the prevailing narrative that the Soviet Union collapsed because it could not keep up with arms spending by the United States, ironically the nation with a $39 trillion debt and a marginal manufacturing base. Of course, a new arms race will be very profitable for those who live by war, death and destruction.

Policies based on false intelligence and false assumptions which usually fail can also be very destructive. In this case it sends the message to the world, that it can expect little efforts at real peace treaties, and only that prevailing in military power will disputes be settled. 

The assumption that military spending brought about the end of the Soviet Union rather than a realization by the leaders of that country that Communism or Socialism was a dead end street and made the appropriate but painful effort to change their economic and political polices. An example that would serve most western nations well, as they flounder in an attempt to preserve their former status.

Looks like ICE is preparing for eastern Pa.

 WILL LARGE TASKFORCE SOON BE ACTIVE IN EASTEN PA.

SEVERAL NEW FACILITES TO AID IN DEPORTATION

ICE must be planning on upping the anti on immigration enforcement in Eastern Pa. The new facility they just purchased in Berks county can only be used when a enhanced presence comes to eastern Pa. It could be expected that this facility could also be used for processing migrants from New Jersey and New York. 

At present it seems most ICE activities have been in the Midwest and West coast, a least by large numbers of  organized forces. While ICE activities are ongoing all over the country, including in eastern Pa., it does appear that large organized efforts are in the process of moving to specific areas and then when all the low hanging or easy to find suspects are rounded up, then moving on to other high priority places. 

While many believe that bad publicity and high profile incidents will slow enforcement, that probably is not the case. As time goes on and policies are perfected we can assume that they have a long list of potential places for high propriety focus. It seems they are taking particular interest in voter roles as a means of choosing those priorities. We can assume there are also other ways of them prioritizing their efforts.

In Pa. most of the law enforcement agencies have good communications with ICE and alert them when they apprehend illegal migrants. We can assume that ICE task forces will soon identify were that is not case and make their decisions accordingly.

Areas with political obstruction may be the places that they feel a task force approach is needed.

It may be the case that areas were politicians make the most effort to protect illegal migrants will be placed on the priority list for high profile task force enforcement. They may be better served to at least give the appearance of cooperation rather than making transparent challenges.

  

Are Epstein files now becoming another propaganda tool.

 DOES ANYONE REALLY BELIEVE THAT EPSTEIN WAS FINANCED BY RUSSIA?

INTENTIONALLY DISCREDITING EVERYTHING

The latest headline on Drudge report is that Epstein was financed by the KGB. Drudge once a source of valid revelations has long been just another purveyor of disinformation. Their latest attempt to shift the power behind Epstein to Russia and the KGB, an organization that hasn't existed since 1991, when it was disbanded, is as outrageous and simply a desperate attempt to hide and shift the attention away from what is now common knowledge. Epstein was an agent for Mossad and likely British intelligence.

This ham fisted attempt is likely to now put into question the validity of much that will now be released or is it being manufactured in present time. Can we soon be told that Iran, China and Venezuela are also coconspirators in the Epstein saga. I suppose many would feel better if that was the case.

The KGB was disbanded in 1991 after organizing a coup in Moscow, it was replaced by the FSB in 1995 after a thorough cleansing, something that it appears needs to be done in most of the western intelligence agencies. It seems their function is no longer to provide real time intelligence of leadership to make informed decisions but to assist in an agenda either self promoted or orchestrated by others.

Epstein had contacts with every nation, and may have contacts in Russia, but common sense tells us in that time period Russia was in the process of survival and renewal and hardly had the resources to support honey pot schemes in the western world, especially with operatives that had obvious ties to Israeli and British intelligence.

One possibility is that many Russian children were adopted by westerners in that time period and some may have seen this as an opportunity to acquire unfortunate children for their devious purposes. That is a very real possibility that should be investigated.

Can Trump wiggle out of war with Iran.

 CHOICE BETWEEN APPEARING WEAK AND ECONOMIC CRISIS

WILL IRAN GIVE HIM AN EXIT?

As days go by it appears that Trump is looking for an off ramp concerning the so called imminent attack on Iran. One must wonder why he believed that Iran would cave on the Israeli demands that they give up all nuclear enrichment, even for peaceful electric generation and essentially disarm.

We can expect that he is being told by Mossad and U.S. intelligence that Iran is ready to collapse at any moment and a little shove is all that is needed. At the same time, Israel is claiming that they will not be a part of any attack on Iran, hoping that they will be spared in the expected retaliation by Iran. The same goes for all the gulf countries claiming they will not allow their bases and airspace to participate in any attack. Operatives in U.S. media claim that Iran is weak and has no ability to harm anyone with retaliation. Trump is now in a no win situation, exactly were several different factions want him. 

It seems Iran is ready to engage in a standoff, and there is little room for negotiations to satisfy the demands of the U.S. and Israel. It will either be a back down by Trump or regional war with all the consequences. A win, win, for Trump's domestic enemies. A back down will unleash many forces to remove him from office, both domestic and from Israel.

The other possibility is that Trump may believe he can use this Armada to embargo oil shipped out of Iran, this would further damage Iran's economy and also cause pain for China. It is unlikely such an attempt to blockade Iran will not result in military conflict, not only with Iran but those who buy Iranian oil. It would also cause escalation with economic reprisals from China. We should expect to see a further sell off of U.S. debt by most foreign holders of that debt. 

We have also watched as China inked a trade deal with Canada and the UK and some expect soon with Mexico that will allow Chinese autoes to soon be readily available in North America. These autos will take market share from U.S. auto's.

The attempt to enforce U.S. sanctions and economic threats will inevitably lead to war or an understanding that the world is changing and the U.S. needs to adapt and manage those changes  in a cooperative and peaceful manner.

 

Rubio explains the workings of the new Colonialism.

AS A FORMER COLONY WE SHOULD KNOW BETTER 

I SUSPECT THIS POLICY WILL HAVE MAJORITY SUPPORT

Marco Rubio testified at a Senate hearing yesterday, he proudly explained the plan for the colonization of Venezuela. This was indeed a revelation as to how low the United States has descended in its policy with other countries. While this is happening in the current administration, I suspect this has been the goal for some time.

Rubio explained that the U.S. will continue to embargo Venezuela by Sea, but will allow it to sell oil at an undiscounted price. The revenues from this oil will be deposited into the Federal Reserve bank in New York and Venezuela may request remittances to cover the cost of essential goods and medical supplies. All purchases by Venezuela must be made from the United States, including distillates that are needed to thin  crude to allow transport. Venezuela may only sell oil to approved customers but never to Russia, China, Iran or any other country not favored by the U.S.. It cannot purchase anything from any country except the U.S.  This is reminiscent of the policies of the British Empire when the former United States was one of its colonies.

While I don't know the details this is a similar arrangement with Iraq, all it's oil revenues are deposited in New York and they must beg for remittances to run their country. This has been going on in Iraq for 20 years, and one expect it will continue as long as there is oil, Venezuela should expect the same.

One must wonder if this is the ultimate plan for Iran, give up your sovereignty, disarm and allow your oil to be managed by the U.S. and possibly Israel.

While at present, this is made possible by a large and well funded military, mostly funded by debt and a diminishing in value dollar, it may soon no longer be possible. In business, there is something called "Good Will" , the image that a business has with its customers, it is very valuable. I suspect that "Good Will" toward America is going to drop like a brick, particularly with former colonies like India, China and the whole of Africa. Of course we could care less, after all, we are greatest and the most formidable military in the world. 

So far, the only real push back has been Russia, but most have been restrained and measured in their dealing with the U.S. knowing that they can be subjected to sanctions "economic statecraft" a nice word for economic warfare, or outright military force. Now that the goals and strategies are becoming more transparent, we can expect an escalation in in-kind economic statecraft from many places. The day will come when this country may very well need its most valuable asset of "Good Will" by others, I fear there is very little left.

Contradictory policies as the world flees fiat currency.

 ARMADAS WILL NOT SAVE THE DOLLAR

NEW MONETARY SYSTEM IS UNSTOPPABLE

Today gold is trading at $5515 per ounce and Silver is at $117, Chairman Powell when asked about it claimed it was irrelevant to the Federal Reserve. I suspect that this is the general thought of many in Washington today. The yield on the 10 year bond is 4.25 % and 4.87 on the 30 year, mostly unchanged this year, but one might expect that will be changing soon.

The dollar has dropped significantly against most major currencies, exactly as the Trump administration has been hoping. This will make imports more expensive, and the hope is it will make U.S. exports more desirable. While at one time this was possible, one must ask what U.S. exports are now competitive in the world market? It is true that Chinese exports to the U.S. dropped by 20%, but their trade surplus in 2025 reached a record high of $1.2 trillion up 5.5%. This was fueled by exports to Asia, Africa and Latin America. Their leading exports were telephones, computers, integrated circuits and cars. China is now and will be accelerating as the leading manufacturer of cars worldwide. In 2025 China produced 34 million vehicles compared to 15 million in the U.S.. China will dominate the overseas market. They now are the dominate manufacture of electric vehicles and they will soon be available, in Europe, Canada and Mexico. 

So back to the declining value of the dollar, while hoped to increase exports it will also make the U.S. bonds less desirable, a contradiction when one is hoping to keep those yields down, rising yields raise the cost of servicing the growing U.S. debt much more difficult.  At the same time expenditures in military spending are expected to rise and keeping Armadas in many parts of the world trying to enforce U.S. supremacy will only add to the cost and the retreat from U.S. bonds and the dollar. An actual major war may be the quick end of the U.S. ability to finance its debt and accelerate the flight from the dollar.

The price of gold and silver and even the rise in the U.S. stock market are all indicators of dollars being exchanged for metals or shares of companies rather than fiat dollars or unpayable debt. At this time this is mostly the policy of Central Banks and sophisticated investors, some time it will expand to many more and that will be a currency and debt crisis as never before.

The U.S. policy has been and continues to be based on the belief that its standing in the world can be sustained by threats and force rather than real sound fiscal management and a currency that is indeed as "Good as Gold"