Iran and Oman agree to strait plan.

 WILL TRUMP END BLOCKADE?

THE CHANGING GLOBAL ORDER

 

Iran and Oman have announced that they have worked out the details on a plan to insure safe passage through the strait of Hormuz, if this is correct, the only obstacle for free flow of passage is the Trump blockade, another dilemma for Trump. It seems that traffic will enter the strait on Iran's side of the strait and exit on Oman's side. Both countries will cooperate in maintaining orderly traffic to insure environmental guidelines and assist in any safety problems. They will charge a small fee for this service, no toll, maintaining that such fees conform to international maritime law.   

 

In effect, this agreement maintains that the strait can now be open and it will all depend on whether Trump will accept this arrangement. We can expect the majority of the countries who depend on traffic through the strait, will agree to this plan. There is speculation that Trump will agree, if the US shares in the income from the fees or assists in Oman's share of the regulation.

 

This may be another opportunity for Trump to declare victory and get out of this mess, without destroying the global economy. We can bet the wires are burning up from all those opposed and possibly from those that will accept this solution.

 

In the Ukraine conflict Russia has in effect disabled Ukraine from using the port of Odessa. It is unlikely that Ukraine can regain use of the port, making it a landlocked country.

 

The US is attempting to intervene in the Japan bond market crisis, also part of the consequences of the energy problems in Asia caused by the Iran war. 

 

The world is watching as the dynamics of the existing world order are in transition.

 

 

 

 

Iran negotiating with Oman on future of strait.

 NEW REALITY EMERGING IN WEST ASIA

 NEW REALITY WITHOUT ANY DEAL?

 

While much angst and threats of escalation continue, Iran and Oman have come to the final details on the plan to regulate traffic in the strait of Hormuz. One must wonder if the Iran crisis will end with a gradual change in the political alliances rather than a destruction of Iran. Of course, it is too early to tell, but world economic pressure is rising on many fronts and a continuation of the present conflict is becoming harder to justify.

 

While Iran has for most of this conflict had a policy of retaliation from attacks in a measured 1 on 1 response, it now seems it is attempting to increase its retaliation to be more aggressive in response. At present things have died down militarily, and escalation is becoming very dangerous politically, economically and even militarily. While there is talk of negotiations, there may be talking between intermediaries, there is not any direct talks between Iran and US and it seems there is not going to be any.

 

The Gulf countries are now in a box of their own, there is reluctance to support further escalation that could destroy these countries economically for years to come. Also, and one must suspect while the governments fear and are reluctant to deal with Iran their populations are now beginning to view Iran as the strong actor in the region. The much touted Shia Sunni division may be less real  in the general populations than in their governments. Is Iran becoming more of a hero to the Muslim population as this crisis goes on?  Iran has been able to engage in a rational unemotional policy that has been very disciplined and transparent, resistance with power, almost predictable and pragmatic responses, they do seem to have a plan and are following it.

 

The danger for Iran is over reach which could spell their doom, but so far, considering what they have endured, they have have been steady in their policies. Then while support in the US is weak for this war. it may be expected some sort of false flag attack by US players or Israel in the hope to gain support for the ultimate destruction of Iran. The immediate labeling of the migrant attack in Spain, by the majority of observers, blaming Israel and the US for punishing Spain for not being co combatants in this war may put a real damper on any attempts for such an attack.

 

At present there seems to be desperation in Washington, Tel Aviv and the Gulf countries, but time is running out, this situation needs to have some sort of conclusion soon, or the economic crisis emerging will possibly be more dangerous than this war.

 

 

 

 

 

Will debt and bond market soon take center stage?

 JAPAN BOND MARKET MAY BE FIRST TO GO

OTHER WESTERN BONDS MAY BE NEXT

 

While the world is focused on the Iran war and oil prices the next serious crisis may be underway in Japan. Japan has the largest debt to GDP in the world, often linked to their financial crisis from 1989 that has never been resolved, just papered over like many countries in the west. Japan is the largest holder of US debt and problems in Japan will cause a need to liquidate other holdings to salvage their bond market.

 

It may be a cascading problem that will affect all bond markets. The 10 year US treasury is now yielding 4.7 % and 30 year 5.25%. Japan holds over $1 trillion of US debt and it may be necessary to liquidate some of that and not buy any more. China has been downsizing its exposure to US debt for some years and now hold near half of what it did some time ago. With massive deficits in the US, and a desire to dramatically increase defense spending, it can only go one way.

 

This will result in servicing the existing debt to become the biggest single expense in the budget which is already over $1 Trillion. This crowds out money for important investments as the past spending begins to cripple economic growth going forward. It has been reported that Metals have replaced Treasury debt as the largest share of foreign reserves. 

 

This coupled with the gulf countries also experiencing almost no income for now over 5 months have liquidated gold and treasury bonds and also are being covered by the US treasury. The US treasury will not be able to intervene in the gulf countries and Japan and manage its own problems that are escalating.

 

Much of the debt in the US can be attributed to 30+ years of foreign military intervention coupled with buying votes with more grants and spending by the Federal government. Whether now is the time it all comes due is not yet clear, but it may very well be the beginning of the end of deficits and unrestrained spending.

 

 

 

 

 

Trump's agonizing dilemma, no win in sight.

 TRUMP BACKS AWAY FROM ESCALATION

AT LEAST FOR NOW

 

Yesterday, Trump at least postponed the anticipated massive attack on Iran.  We can speculate that the phones and messages are burning up Trump's phone as never before, Primarily by those who want this war to continue.

 

Trump's dilemma is, yes the US has the power to destroy Iran as a functioning state, but the consequences are not easily calculated, it is the simple reason that former presidents, all who supported Israel, and all hoped to control the oil assets of Iran, balked at outright war with Iran. Iran who has been under sanctions, war and threats of war by the US ever since 1979, knew that one day they would come to an ultimate test in a confrontation with the US. They understood that a military confrontation with the US would be devastating, but was not willing to go back into being a part of a colonial system as they were under the Shaw. Their dilemma is far more existential than Trump's has been, at least until now. 

 

The former agreement under Obama was considered a step in the right direction to normalize relations with Iran.  It put Iran on the world stage with all the major powers and it was in their  interest to live up to the agreement. Contrary to the narrative, they did live up to the agreement, at least as long as the US continued to do so. When the US, under pressure on Trump, by Netanyahu, pulled out of the agreement, Iran proceeded to enrich Uranium to the 60 % level and informed everyone that they did so. They admitted it was effort to bring about another negotiation of the nuclear issue, but it became a rallying cry for the destruction of Iran. 

 

That negotiation was actually on its way to be successful in Geneva in late February, but one can speculate that US negotiators informed Israel before they informed Trump or Trump had already decided to attack Iran, we may never know. 

 

The attack on February 28 was a viscous and brutal attack that killed off the leadership of Iran in one day, the earlier attack by Israel in June 2025, also killed leaders and scientists and their families. While most deny it, the reality is that Trump refused to go along with that attack and declared victory after the attack on nuclear facilities, it was not what Israel wanted. Israel wanted and still wants Iran to be reduced to a failed state similar to Libya and Syria, leaving Israel one step away form being the dominate power in the region.

 

While Israel wants Iran destroyed as a nation, the neocolonialists and neocons in the government have convinced Trump that the US can preserve its hope of world domination by controlling the oil resources of the world. 

 

There is lots of evidence to back up this claim, it began when the DOGE savings, that were hoped to right the financial problems in the country, were immediately transferred to the military, the renaming the defense department to the Department of War.  The emphasis on Panama and Venezuela and Greenland. No audit of the defense department and the expectation to increase military spending to $1.5 trillion. The increasing of sanctions on any country that did not submit to US demands. The eventual capture of all oil revenue of Venezuela, and the hope of controlling all Mideast oil facilitated by gaining control of Iran's oil to be followed by the oil of the whole Gulf. A hope to control the world by controlling the oil resources as a lever.

 

So far it has not been quite that easy, there has been resistance and Iran is being backed up by Russia and China, understanding that Iran's geographical position and their oil resources are important to building an alternative economic system independent of western control. That is were we stand today. 

 

The US and Israel can destroy Iran, but Iran has credibility demonstrated that they can take down the world economy, as they are destroyed. They understand that they are under a existential threat to their survival and need to never submit to the inevitable destruction of their country. The hope of an internal collapse is evidentially non existent, Israel is focused on Iranian destruction and the neocons believe that if Iran prevails their hope of world domination is coming to an end. There may not be any winners in a further attempt to destroy Iran, but can the leadership in the US be content to be part of the world economy without being in control of it.

 

It appears that Trump has rejected the advice of the U.S. intelligence in predicting the risks of war with Iran, there is lots of evidence he has relied on intelligence from Israel and Mossad, which may be biased.  The resignations of Gabbard and Kent indicate this is true. The killing of Khomeini and the school girls was making sure that Iran would not easily submit but fight until they are destroyed.  

 

I do not believe that US has the manufacturing base or a sound economic base and currency to pull off this effort to control the globe and is further weakening its credibility and financial hopes for the future by  increasing debt and destroying good will. Resources sorely needed to restore the US financial systsem and manufacturing base are being squandered in its quest to preserve its control by economic and military threats. The US and the world is at a pivotal moment in history, with a the possibility of a positive outcome declining by the day.

 

 

 

 

 

Day 154, 5 months, no end in sight?

 WHO WILL RUN OUT OF BOMBS FIRST?

WILL THE US BE FORCED OUT OF THE GULF?

 

The reality is that the US is being forced further to the west with each passing day. It now seems that the US is predominantly based in Jordan and Israel, that is 1035 miles from border to border. Of course, we still have our carrier forces, they are hundreds of miles in the other direction, that is all just to get to the borders of Iran.  The logistics of this war is a challenge in itself, a remarkable task, and very expensive.

 

While an air war has difficult logistics, a ground war is overwhelming,  that is why a war with Iran has been avoided by all previous US administrations. Today, I suspect that although Iran has suffered immense damage, they are still standing and it now appear that they will continue to stand for the foreseeable future. From the beginning many considered just survival for Iran to be counted as a victory. 

 

Now, it may be that they will actually get more than survival, as the clock is running down on the availability of precision weapons, on the risk to the global economy and even control of the strait of Hormuz. The strait was open before this war, and the strait will again be open, if Iran is ceded that control. I suspect that shippers and the international community will accept that control, but it will be a devastating loss to the US if it cannot gain control of strait.  

 

Again, this war could have been avoided, just like the Ukraine war, in fact the negotiations in Geneva had come to an agreement that could have been a victory for Trump, but it was scuttled by the February 28 attack. It now appears there will not be any negotiations, and Iran will retain control of the strait, unless the US wants to hasten its own demise by engaging in an all out war, possibly nuclear, to defeat Iran. A tactical victory, but ultimately a strategic defeat.

 

While many warn of another forever war, this will not likely be the case, it will conclude soon, or at least be a long pause until a new plan for winning can be entertained, an unlikely event. 

 

 

 

Is Trump ready to bet the house on Iran?

 TRUMP'S LAST CHANCE IS SLIPPING AWAY

BIBI LEFT SMILING, A BAD SIGN 

 

It appears as though Trump has made his decision, only a few more days for us to know for sure, but it appears we may be in for escalation in Iran and a determination to destroy the Iranian nation.  We do have that ability, but at what cost to the US and world economy. The 30 year is now at 5.24% and the 10 year 4.76% a disaster for servicing the exploding national debt. This is just an indication of where we are going, a prolonged war and even possible ground troops, will make these numbers look moderate.

 

One has to wonder if Iran's attack yesterday was a premeditated effort to suck Trump into a prolonged war, possibly a far bigger weapon in the long run than even the strait of Hormuz. I suspect that this attack was intentionally timed to coincide with Bibi's visit to Washington. It seems to have provoked the desired reaction from Trump. An outrageous sneak attack on a US base!, is almost humorous, after the US and Israelis attacks on the clergy, leadership and even school girls in Iran. The hypocrisy is just so over the top.

 

While the present wars continue, it is relevant that Russia has been very restrained in their approach to Ukraine, at least until the recent escalation, that it is still very controlled and strategic. The same has been the policy of Iran, only responding to escalation from the US,  this last attack on our Jordanian bases is the first exception to that policy. It was almost a cry for the US to not stop, please continue the war. 

 

We can assume that the adversaries of the US, have a clear objective view of the power of the US. and have determined that the best policy is not disrupt their rush to decline by expending their wealth and energy until it is no longer able to sustain the costs, both economically and militarily.  So far, due to hubris of US leadership, they are cooperating according to plan.

 

One other observation that causes interest is the continual accusations against Russian targeting information to Iran. Most assume this information is coming from China, which is experimenting with many of their untested electronics in Iran.  Of course, the US knows this, but seems to want to blame Russia rather than China, not clear why this is the present policy.  

 

Some are predicting a mass casualty event to US forces that will hopefully encourage an escalation of the war. We can assume Israel still wants escalation, hoping the US will knock off this domino of prospective threats on their delusional dream of world power status. The possible result may very well be the diminishing of what is left of US power and credibility, and the end of their only hope for survival.

 

 

 

 

Bibi wants escalation, not victory declaration.

 MILITARY DIVIDED ON IRAN WAR

WILL TRUMP SACRIFICE MIDTERMS FOR ISRAEL?

 

The logical strategy would be to declare victory and go home, but we will soon know if logic or Netanyahu will prevail in regards to the Iran war. Word is that Netanyahu and his backers lobbied hard for a renewed intensified conflict in the hope to destroy Iran for good. We can expect to see within days which way Trump will go.

 

It appears the U.S. military is divided, with some concerned that the dwindling supply of precision weapons and defensive missiles may put the U.S. service members in increased risk. 

 

So far, this war has been under the control of Trump, concerning  when it starts and when it stops. One has to wonder if the US is lulled into the belief that it can continue to do that. Last night may be a preview from Iran as they attacked the US bases in Jordon without it being a retaliation to US attacks. 

 

Any escalated attack on Iran that requires US planes to overfly Iran will result in lost planes and pilots, a very politically negative result for the president. This week may be the pivotal time for the direction of not only this war, but for the future of the Trump presidency and the US standing in the world. All objective analysis believes that escalation is a long shot gamble at best. Netanyahu may be desperate, and after a further escalation, so will Trump.