Consequences of Iran war will be long term.

 IT APPEARS DECISION HAS BEEN MADE TO  MOVE FORWARD

OIL PRICES TO REMAIN ELEVATED, POLITICAL WARS INCREASE

Word is out, ships are beginning to move in the strait of Hormuz, while only a fraction of former traffic, it can be expected to increase in the coming days. Oil futures prices have fallen, but it appears that it will take many months for prices to normalize. Demand will rise as Governments attempt to replenish reserves drawn down in recent months. Most reserves were within weeks of being depleted.

It is reported that Vance has canceled his meeting in Switzerland due to logistics problems or an attempt to not give ammunition to the opposition to this deal. We should expect negotiations will now be conducted with little transparency and little drama. 

While many sceptics, with good reason, have doubted the sincerity of this deal on Trump's part, it does, at least for now, look like Trump has made the decision to end this. A difficult decision, but all the other options would result in a long term commitment that could have lasted years. It may be that now that that decision has been made it will be implemented quickly.

The political consequences are just beginning, the political warfare will be intense from those who wanted to keep this going for years. We will hear that just a little longer, or a few more attacks would have made the difference and the government would have collapsed. Same litany that we have heard for years in diverse places all the while the debts keep exploding the deficits increasing and economic peril increases at home. The consequence of this war are going to be costly, but Trump is experienced in cutting his loses when staying engaged would be worse.

Israel will need to make adjustments to its policy's, whether it wants to or not, We can expect their own domestic political situation will be intense as well. It is predictable that other crisis's and other challenges will soon take the attention of  us all. 

Will Trump revise his policy in other fronts?

 HOW ABOUT NORMALIZING RELATIONS WITH CUBA?

OR WILL HE NOW DOUBLE DOWN IN THIS HEMISPHERE?

The repercussions of Trump's decision to end this Iran war are far from over, they most likely have just begun. We can expect that if this MOA is signed and begins to transpire, the opposition will organize in ways to make life difficult for Trump. The reality is that 30+ years of military and economic intervention have run up an enormous debt, deeply divided the nation at home and caused the U.S. standing in the world to be at a historical low. Never the less many factions want more of the same and Trump did promise to change direction of the country, it does appear that Trump has made the decision to change direction in the middle east. Will he also change direction in his approach to the other crisis's festering around the world?

The reality is the U.S. is not, at its roots, the power it once was, one of the reasons for the pause in this conflict was the enormous expenditure of precision weapons could not be sustained. This is can attributed to years of military action, a diminished manufacturing base and dependence on others for strategic supplies. It became apparent that Iran was not going to fall from air power alone and the world could not maintain an oil embargo without drastic consequences. All the naysayers keep up the narrative about finishing off Iran without any real plan to do it. Trump was on the hot seat, he looked at all the options, even nuclear weapons, and finally came to his only real option, especially if he felt he would like to do other things than engage in war for the rest of his term.

The lesson is similar in the Russia/Ukraine conflict, a neutral non aligned Ukraine could have been the most prosperous country in eastern Europe, the EU, particularly Germany, had a cushy energy arrangement with Russia that allowed them to prosper, but threw it all away due to the Neocon dream of dismembering Russia. So far, they cannot suck it up and change direction. 

All the while, China sets an example of non-intervention, growing their economy and infrastructure at home and making mutually prosperous deals with all those willing to partner with them. 

The U.S. cannot maintain its global power by military force, unless it wants to go nuclear on all its adversaries, a real self destructing idea, that some are entertaining. The West needs a new perspective on the global security and economic realities of the 21 St. century. Hopefully, the Iran war can be lesson and hopefully it will be successful.

It looks like Trump is ready to move on.

 THE MIDDLE EAST WILL NOT BE THE SAME

THERE WILL BE INCREASED FOCUS ON ISRAEL

There are now leaked reports on the upcoming Iran/U.S. deal. It also appears that we may be able to be more optimistic of a successful  new era in the region. If this deal is concluded by August 19, as is planned, it will in effect, normalize relations between the U.S. and Iran and also between the other Persian Gulf countries. At this point we can only be hopeful.

The reality is that the U.S. understood that the oil reserves all around the world were almost depleted. Iran understood that this may be the best opportunity for normalized relations since 1979. There are huge incentives for both sides to make this happen. If this is signed and 1/2 Iran's frozen assets are released at that time it will indicate that the U.S. is serious. All the other nations in the gulf need this to happen, there are plenty of incentives for all.

Of course, the sticking point is still Israel. We should expect that there there will be pressure for Hezbollah to commit to a ceasefire and pressure for Israel to withdraw from Lebanon. While this will be unpopular with the leadership in Israel, if the deal is moving forward with Iran in a respectful manner by both sides, they will be under enormous world pressure to end the fighting in Lebanon. All a first step for a better outcome for everyone in the region, including Israel. It can be expected that any escalation or other attempts to sabotage this deal by Israel will be closely monitored, and if Iran can gain confidence, they may be able to be convinced to not respond militarily.

Of course, if this deal if consummated, it is not the end, but only the beginning for a comprehensive agreement for whole region. 

Trump's right decision, Israel pledges war to go on.

 IF REAL, TRUMP HAS BIT THE BULLET

BEST DECSION FOR THE U.S. AND WORLD

While at present Trump is declaring victory, in the long run it could be the most pivotal decision of  his presidency.  Staying the course in Iran was a loser for the global economy and while few want to acknowledge it, when it all fell apart, Iran would be least of their troubles.  If Trump makes this happen, he will find that there is a time for humility and a new lesson in his life. He has shown he has the ability to change course.

The present deal may be a lesser deal than the one he was persuaded to scrap by Netanyahu several years ago. If he can gain the trust of Iran, he may be able to actually make a long term difference in the region. Actually, a better deal was near completed in Geneva before the February attack. 

The former deal by Obama and now this move to diplomacy has actually brought Iran into  a closer alignment with the world community. Iran has shown patience, and mostly engaged in retaliation, the escalation was consistently on the part of the U.S. and Israel. Iran has shown restraint and the ability engage in effective diplomacy. The reality that Iran had the capability to destroy the oil infrastructure of the region and throw the world into a economic crisis, but did not, has shown the world that Iran is not necessarily a ideological extremist. 

I suspect that all the Muslim nations in the region are ready to make some sort of peace with Iran, I suspect that Iran is also ready for a new effort for peace in the region. The citizens of Israel should take a hard look at where their future was headed and consider some other options in their policies. While their leaders claim they are winning, they have lost a lot in the last 3years. It is not too late.

The present narrative out of Israel is that will continue in their war with Iran, that they will engage in covert actions and internal subversion to overthrow the government of Iran. I hope they decide that approach is not in their best interest. 

This can be an opportunity, but a rational and humanitarian solution for the Palestinian question is fundamental to solving the long term future of the region.

Day 107, Deal completed? Signing now June 19?

 NETANYAHOU SAYS ISRAEL NOT PART OF DEAL

ISRAEL ATTACKS LEBANON, STRAIT STILL NOT OPEN

Both sides seem to indicate that they have agreed to the framework for an end to hostilities in the region. Most do not believe it will actually be the end of this conflict, just a pause until after the November elections and a period of normalized oil supplies.

Netanyahu refuses to exit Lebanon or cease hostilities with Lebanon. Yesterday Trump convinced Iran not to retaliate against Israel for its renewed attacks on Lebanon. Most believe the Trump/Netanyahu rift is just theater. Iran did not retaliate for now, but there is no question that if the attacks continue they will.  Trump does have the leverage to demand compliance from Netanyahu, either by cutting off all offensive weapons to Israel or just pledge to stand back and not participate in Israel's defense if they do not comply. It would be a first for Trump and would go a long way in increasing his credibility.

Below is a summary of the major parts of this agreement, no one has yet seen the most up to date version.

1. Non-aggression treaty for the future.

2. Iran will retain control of Strait.

3. Iran can enrich for commercial purposes.

4. Lifting of Primary sanctions.

5. Lifting of secondary sanctions.

6. Termination of UN security council resolutions condemning Iran.

7. Termination of IAEA resolutions against Iran.

8. Payment of compensation to Iran.

9. Withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region.

10. Cessation of war on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

This is the rough idea of what is being considered, and if a deal is actually signed on Friday, it will begin with opening the strait by both sides, a return of 1/2 the frozen assets of Iran and negotiations to be concluded in the following 60 days. This will concern the nuclear agreement which will be similar to what was part of the original deal from 2015.

Most question the sincerity of the U.S. in all this, feeling it is more about oil prices and political convenience until after the next election. It is a real opportunity for a comprehensive security agreement for the region, if that is what they really want.

Day 104, Trump, War over? doubtful.

 MORE WAR, THEN PEACE, TESTING AMERICANS GULLIBILITY

HOW LONG CAN CREDIBILITY LAST?

Yesterday, the world was whipsawed by competing narratives coming out of the White House. More intense war, oil markets rise, then peace, oil markets fall, the same pattern that has been going on for now months. I suspect that any proclamations coming out of the White House are now considered just so much verbiage without any substance. It can be assumed that much of he world is feeling the same. This pattern is the quickest way for a President to become irrelevant.

This whole ceasefire was called for by Trump, tentatively agreeing to Iran's position, then when it came to real negotiations, it all evaporated. In reality, Iran has not changed it position and neither has the U.S.  Lets face it, Trump is hoping for Iran to capitulate and give him a clear victory. Iran, a nation that is in an existential fight for its survival, not just its government, but its nation, which has been under sanctions and assault for its entire modern existence is demonstrating that it has the social cohesion and military ability to demonstrate a lasting deterrence. This whole fiasco is weakening the U.S. and giving Iran credibility in the world community. I suspect that saying that is tantamount to treason, everyone is supposed to be on board exclaiming the virtues and power of the U.S. while in effect it is diminishing by the day.

Together  with the Ukraine/Russian war, another conflict that was expected to be over in weeks and is now in its 4th year, all in the hope of maintaining world control and control of the politics and resources of Russia and Iran, have in effect decimated the economies of Europe and soon the U.S. The debts are piling up, the internal social fabric disintegrating and the credibility of their governments evaporating. Exactly opposite of the goals that these wars were expected to enact.

It seems the leadership class is without the ability to change course, either from hubris or just unable to neutralize those with other agendas, either way, it is likely going to end with a diminished nation in all respects.

Day 103, War back on, Strait closed.

 U.S. ATTACKS IRAN, IRAN STRIKES U.S. BASES

IRAN DECLARES STRAIT CLOSED FOR EVERYONE

Dueling narratives from both sides, the U.S. claims it's strikes are defensive and Iran retaliates, more of the same, but just escalating. Trump claims the U.S. has been sneaking ships through the strait. Imagine sneaking 1000 foot long ships through a 20 mile wide waterway. We can assume the ships going through were with Iranian permission. Iran now states, no ships will be going through until escalation stops.

We can assume that this is going to be the situation for some time and the disruption of the flow of oil out of the gulf will continue. More are speculating that the U.S. actually wants the oil traffic disrupted, hoping, while it may damage Iran, it will cause economic worries for China. While it may hobble consumers in the U.S. it will damage China more and the U.S. will be less impacted than others. It may also increase dependence on U.S. energy and increase U.S. leverage. A sad way of trying to insure the U.S. remains relevant.

All this also takes the focus off of Israel's attacks on Lebanon and it seems there were no more attack by Iran on Israel.

It is amazing that oil prices have been restrained so far, when actual shortages begin that may be much harder to control.

Indications that the stock markets are possibly finally entering a new reality phase, we will see if this will cause another reevaluation of this conflict.

Chaos, instability and uncertainty seem to be outlook for the foreseeable future.