Henry Kissinger, Last of the real U.S. diplomats.

CONTROVERSIAL, BUT DID REAP PEACE AND STABILITY 

AN EXAMPLE FOR DIPLOMATS OF THE FUTURE

Henry Kissinger the most successful diplomat of the post WW2 era lived to be 100. He never seemed to be a fitness or diet enthusiast yet was still active and functioning well in recent times. He actually visited China and met with Xi in the past year. He was well respected in China, Russia and in most middle east countries. He worked to end the cold war with the Soviet Union and was awarded the Nobel peace prize in negotiating the end to the Vietnam war. 

He was without a doubt the most successful U.S. diplomat in the post WW2 era. It seemed he could relate to the concerns of his opponents or those on the other side of the negotiations, a quality not often witnessed today. It seemed he was able to not be influenced by ideology or bias and was able to gain the trust of his counterparts. His goal was resolution through peaceful means. The goal of any peaceful negotiation is a win for both sides, the same as any human transaction.

His abilities should be an example to anyone who desires to be a successful diplomat, one who wants a lasting resolution to a dispute.

Today we have watched as. so called diplomats, publicly embarrass or lie to their counterparts, focusing on the goal of getting the better of the opponent by any means, the use of military threats, economic sanctions and intimidation, not the recipe for any lasting success.

The diplomats of China, Russia and even Saudi Arabia have out classed the diplomats of this country for decades. Our diplomats have relied on force in all negotiations, not the approach that will bring any lasting resolutions. We can witness who has been successful by their fruits, allies and friends who are acquired by fear or money are no friends at all. 

Henry Kissinger, a refuge from NAZI Germany will have a very positive remembrance for his dedication to the art of diplomacy and peaceful resolution. An example to us all.

Attempting to "Redefine success" in Ukraine

  A LITTLE REALITY IS TRYING TO WEAKEN DELUSIONS

NATO AND U.S. PLEDGING SUPPORT, JUST A LOT LESS

It appears that the new goal in Ukraine is how to declare victory and then move on. It will be hard task to just let Ukraine dwindle in importance and continuing visibility, but with the western media, anything is now possible. They may even go as far as to punish anyone who does not accept or acknowledge victory.

While such delusions and narratives are now possible to those not directly involved, it will be far more real to the Ukrainians, who it is expected will continue to die and see their country wither in size in this new declared victory.

I guess we will be told that there is victory in the fact that many Russians have died and much wealth has been expended. That Europe is no longer dependent on Russian energy, even if they are going to be a lot poorer without it. That there is victory in the fact that Russia no longer has Coke-Cola, McDonalds or BMW cars, even if these companies have lost a sizable amount of revenue and assets.  Maybe it will be declared a victory that Russia will have very little interaction and commerce with west even if it has pretty much replaced those markets with others who are a lot more friendly and have a faster growing population and economy. 

Yes, victory can be found in many places, especially if you are not able to visit or experience those places first hand. In today's world everything is possible, even if  it is only a virtual reality.

The demonization of Elon Musk.

 PREDICTABLE PROGRAM, SIMILAR TO TREATMENT OF  PUTIN AND TRUMP

YOU MUST SUBMIT OR YOU ARE THE ENEMY

Domestic policy and media personalities are subject to the same criteria for acceptance as the rest of the world. You are either for us or you are the enemy. It is the general policy of the United States elite ruling class. We see this tactic used everywhere for foreign leaders like Orban of Hungary, who has not fallen over himself in supporting every global dictate either economically or socially. We see the same conderning Xi of China and any leader or country who believes that countries should have the right to chart their own destiny. 

Elon Musk is the latest domestic example, a innovator, that has created thousands of jobs, who has been the leading manufacturer of electric vehicles and the best private builder of space rockets. Yet, when he decided that he would buy Twitter, the darling of the elite ruling class with, federal agents on the payroll controlling the content, it was then the beginning of a program to destroy him. 

So far he has survived, but the lawsuits are piling up and government investigations are expanding all in an effort to silence him and hopefully bring him onboard the ruling class ship. They can look to their success with others like Bill Gates, who finances and promotes every cause they endorse and is now a darling rather than a demon.

We have seen the same treatment of Putin of Russia when he refused to allow access to the wealth of Russia for foreign exploitation and pushed back at regime change and revolution on Russia's borders.

We have seen Donald Trump, a well known and respected leader of business in New York, quickly become the most hated man of the media and the ruling class, both Republican and Democrat. They have no limit to the injustice and the lengths they will go to in their desire to discredit and destroy him. So far he has survived, only because they likely fear making him a martyr that could haunt them for years.

While more Americans and people around the world are becoming aware of these tactics, they continue, and will continue and possibly escalate until this evil bunch is exposed and driven out of power.

"As long as it takes", is at an end?

 LOOKS LIKE MOST ARE READY TO QUIT UKRAINE

WILL IT REQUIRE CHANGE OF LEADERSHIP IN WEST

It does appear that the end of the support for Ukraine is near. It will require a magic act to shift to peace talks from the litany of steadfast support of the past. We see peace talks with 50 nations, we hear of talks in NATO, but they seem to skip talking to the real master of this conflict, Russia. Are these leaders till believing their own spin and assume that when they decide it should be over, Russia will just agree and be go along with their plan for peace.

While now the talk is that Zelensky must negotiate with Russia, I suspect that Russia is not going to make any deal with just Zelensky. It is going to need to be a comprehensive European security arrangement with NATO and the United States. It will be the framework of Putin's proposal before this conflict started, the one rejected by the United States and NATO, except the borders will be different.

After the betrayal and lies in the Minsk accords, the present leaders of Germany and France, will probably not be negotiators. That may also apply to the Biden administration whose members are so vehemently anti-Russian that they could not likely be negotiators with Russia. In fact, I suspect Zelensky may also not be able to conduct any such negotiations. Everything is now so much more complicated than it was before February and March of 2022, when there was real opportunity to save Ukraine as a nation and enter a new period of peaceful coexistence with Russia.

Peaceful co-existence is still possible, but it will be on Russia's terms and they will not consent to half measures and another attempt to rearm and fight another day in Ukraine.

So, while the move to end this war is now acknowledged, I suspect the players will all need to be changed and the reality of this failed and foolish adventure must be accepted and dealt with, a very bitter pill for all those involved.

I suspect this new arrangement will go on for years and require a reevaluation of NATO and security and economic arrangements in Europe and western Asia. It can be a positive arrangement for all involved, but only if they swallow their pride and begin to see the world in a new light of competing and cooperative power sharing.  We will have to see if there are any real diplomats who can emerge to make any such peaceful transitions a reality.

We all have many reasons to give thanks .

 THANKSGIVING, THE BEST HOLIDAY

HAS REAL MEANING FOR US ALL

While we are constantly bombarded by the injustice and the bizarre happenings of the modern world, Thanksgiving should be a respite to much of this. It is a time for giving thanks for what is right and good and hopefully will give us all an opportunity to view what is really important in life.

Family, one of the most important things in this life, it is usually only family that we can truly rely on when difficult times arrive. People without family start life with a distinct disadvantage that many never overcome. We should all be thankful if we have been blessed with a sound and intact family. Thanksgiving is indeed a time of family celebration.

We all know that thanksgiving is traced back to the early settlers, " the separatists" and later called the pilgrims.  After a 66 day journey they arrived in present Massachusetts on Nov 6, 1620. More prudent planning would have planned an arrival in spring rather than late autumn. I expect they were likely without the ability to do everything as planned.

Of the original 102 arrivals, by spring of 1621 only 47 survived. Weakened by 66 days on a 90 ft ship, they were sick, malnourished and without shelter or adequate supplies. They faced the task of building shelter and providing for the upcoming winter. They had disputes with the local tribes and also made some friends, it must of been a period of a very uncertain future. It is reported that at times there were only 6 or 7 healthy enough to tend to the others.

While it was a horrendous winter it was a true lesson in planning for the next winter. They made friends with some of the  locals and eventually were truly able to be thankful by the end of the next harvest time.

It is likely none of us have anywhere near this kind of an experience. We actually have many things to be thankful for, everyday. 

The two most important things in life is having enough food and keeping warm in winter. Something that I expect all too many take for granted. Without the basic necessities of life, everything else quickly loses its importance.

Today, we are all going to be warm and well fed, be thankful, rejoice and appreciate these simple but all important necessities of life.

Biden gambles double or nothing on Ukraine.

 PROPOSES ANOTHER $100 BILLION

EVER HEAR ANY EMPATHY FOR UKRAINE YOUNG MEN?

CORRECTION: I listed this aid package at $100 billion, which is the kind of numbers we often see concerning military expenditures. but it is actually $100 million. If this is correct and that is all that is going to Ukraine then the U.S. is washing its hands of this conflict. Kyiv needs $5 billion a month just to keep the government going. We will see, if some other number does not surface in the weeks ahead.

No one should be surprised that this administration is willing to keep this war going until there are no men left in Ukraine or to after the next election. While it is true, that the opportunity for peace in Ukraine with an intact Ukraine is long past, there is no consideration for the death and destruction and the probable loss of more Ukraine territory. No thought to the economic damage to most of western Europe and of course the credibility of NATO. It is all part the spectacular gamble of this Ukraine fiasco. It appears that the direction will not change until either the economies of western Europe implode or the Ukraine military decides it has had enough.

Then of course there's always the option of NATO forces, mostly U.S., to Ukraine or nuclear war. It is apparent any option is better than the reality of failure of this grand climax of U.S. sponsored regime change policies.

Then there is Russia, seeming content to keep up just enough provocations to entice the Ukrainians to keep attacking or defending. It seems Russia in some ways also wants this war to continue. While it has cost them lives and treasure, their economy has weathered and now prospered even after every possible economic sanction that the west could conjure up. The reality is sanctions have damaged the European economies more than Russia, which has now permanently distanced itself from the west. This attrition is having a devastating effect on the economies and the politics of western Europe.

The United States after spending $125 billion of borrowed money is now debating another $100 billion or more, all in an attempt to damage Russia. Much of this policy was based on the delusional thought that Russia and its army would fold within weeks of conflict, it did not happen, and now Russia's army has grown from 200,000 to over 1 million, much of it by voluntary enlistments of Russians who now recognize the transparent designs of the Biden administration and the west to destroy Russia. Not only has this military become more effective and its military industry been ramped up, they are now capable of taking on NATO's combined forces if necessary. A fight that no one should want to witness.

It is now clear that Russia, after suffering many deaths and damage, is not going to be an easy negotiator. it is not giving up any territory, they will insist on No NATO for Ukraine and if this conflict continues will move to the Dnieper river and take Odessa and Kharkiv. It is apparent they do not want to rule western Ukraine and most likely do not want any more of Ukraine, but if the insistence is NATO expansion they will move west, not to occupy, but destroy.

I expect that this administration will not ever admit defeat or failure, so only a change of administrations will end this conflict. That or total defeat of the Ukrainian military.

The politics of division has consequences.

 DIVISION POLITICS REACHED ITS PEAK DURING OBAMA/BIDEN

CAN IT NOW BE CONTROLLED?

During the Obama years we saw the introduction of racial politics like never before. With the introduction of paid organizers, we saw Antifa and Black Lives Matter creating chaos and havoc all across the country. It was all intended to stimulate black voters and create division. The media was a willing collaborator, even altering recordings and showing partial videos to encourage outrage and division. It all worked, and now the country is more divided than in any time since the civil war.

Couple this with the left leaning educational system, indoctrinating the youth that America and white people are the cause of all the world's woes. Then add an intentional unrestricted influx of illegal immigration from over 150 separate cultures and religious backgrounds and we have a recipe for never uniting this country again.

It is now evident that while many of these immigrants came here for opportunity, many also came for a free ride and a strong affinity for their homeland. An affinity that overrides their loyalty to America. In the last few weeks we have seen the culmination of these trends with the rise of anti-semitism concerning disputes thousands of miles away. Again we see the democrats and the media, who engineered this division, now blaming the rise in anti-semitism on Donald Trump, a disgusting attempt to distract from their own responsibility. Sadly the uninformed and misinformed Americans will soak this up and continue to soak it up until it culminates in a national disaster. These youth and minorities that are anti-semitic are most also likely anti-white.  

We see the same results in Western Europe which now has a fractured society without any national loyalty. One must wonder if this is not the real intention. Destroy the national identity and cohesion of a society, and then replace it with some form of authoritarian rule that will promise peace and justice.

Americans need to reject these constant attempts to divide the country by racial, and national identity means. We should be having a discussion about what policies are in the best interest for the long term future of this country. We must not let political affairs around the world divide us. It is in the best interest of everyone who wants the opportunity and freedom that is part of being an American.

U.S. foreign policy is destroying Europe.

 ENDLESS WAR, REFUGEE INVASION, CULTURAL DESTRUCTION AND ECONOMIC RUIN

DISMAL FUTURE FOR WESTERN EUROPE

The last 3 decades of United States intervention in the affairs of other countries has been a disaster, primarily for Europe and of course, the middle east. 

This new foreign policy began with the first invasion of Iraq over the Iraq/Kuwait crisis that can be proved that Saddam Hussein was baited by the United States into believing that the United States would not get involved in territorial disputes in the middle east. Saddam took the bait, and thus began the game of domino's that is still going on today.

The ensuing series of actions and reactions has led to the destruction of the stability in most of the middle east region and the resulting exodus of refugees into Europe. The disintegration of Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan and Libya has fueled this exodus that is still going on today. The European Union's policy for refugees has of course contributed to is destabilization, but it would have never happened without the destruction of the stability in those countries. It is leading to the cultural, social and economic instability of western Europe.

Then the culmination of the United States interventions was the desire to expand NATO to Ukraine and Georgia, an act that was acknowledged would lead to a response by Russia. As predicted and hoped for, Russia did respond, and the plan was to devastate the economy of Russia and lead to an overthrow of that government. Sadly, it appear that western Europe and of course Ukraine have been the biggest losers. Ukraine has basically lost its chance to be an independent and prosperous country and western Europe, if it does not take drastic action, soon will descend into a third world region, with chaos and instability for decades.

The integration of the economies of western Europe and the resources of the Russian federation were the perfect recipe for prosperity for both those systems. It was a very sound mutually beneficial arrangement. It now appears that cooperation may very well be ended permanently and western Europe, having jettisoned all it reliance on fossil fuels, is now without the energy needed to be a prosperous society.  Without prosperity, unrest surely follows and now with a population of divided loyalties and cultural conflict, it will likely be an impossible task to preserve a stable social environment.

The Ukraine conflict has mostly run its course, it will be a smaller country at best, without much of its industrial base. It will be dependent on aid from the west for decades. That is of course if the masters of this conflict can face reality and not continue to escalate until Ukraine is no longer even a country. Western Europe's bleeding will continue as long as this war continues.

Russia which had a small military, with sophisticated major weapons, has been transformed by necessity into large modern sophisticated and capable military. While it does not seem to be intent on territorial expansion, it is not likely to be intimidated by western threats. It appears to have accepted its divorce from western economies and have been able to find others willing to do business. It is time for real diplomacy, something that seems to be lacking in most western countries.  

None of these problems will go away without decisive and prudent action. so far, we have seen none of that, just double down on the present course, without a thought, without a plan B.

Biden, worst foreign policy diplomat ever.

 FOREIGN RELATIONS AT ALL TIME LOW

NO ONE TAKES THESE PEOPLE SERIOUSLY

Yesterday we saw much talk about the great meeting between Biden and China's XI in San Francisco. Xi was there for the APEC, "Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation" conference meeting. This conference had 30,000 attendees from around the world. The complicit media made it appear that XI had come here to talk to Biden, but the reality is he came here to talk business with thousands of business and industry participants and felt the need to be at least cordial to the president of the host country. He was welcomed and applauded by many in attendance, it appears Biden did not attend the actual conference.

The highlight in the media was Biden reaffirming that XI is a communist dictator, not a very smart diplomatic statement. While China government has its roots in communism, it is now a mixed economy and even XI can be ousted from power if the powers that be so desire. These statements serve no purpose for improved relations with China.

U.S. relations with much of the world has eroded, due to the present policy of you are either for us or our enemy. While it seems this administration is now attempting to moderate their policy, it seems the damage has already been done. The hypocrisy, misstatements, actual lies and half truths have taken their toll on foreign allies and competitors alike. Their attempt to intimidate, sanction and threaten with regime change and stirring domestic unrest has become an old story that is now recognized and is no longer effective. The talk of fighting wars in Russia, China and Iran simultaneously is now recognized as just a lot of bluster. This game is over and can only be repaired by a new administration and a new policy.

It is possible for competitive peaceful coexistence, but not by many of the people running the U.S. intelligence community and State department.

At present, any change in direction is unlikely and if so, we will see the decline of the United States in economic prosperity and relevance in the world. The rest of the world is moving on, with us or without us.

THE COMING COLLAPSE OF DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISM

THE COMING COLLAPSE OF DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISM

THE QUESTION IS NOT IF, BUT WHEN? 

 

Watching the news we see economic crises worldwide. While we are not currently in a major downturn, we have been sort of treading water for the last 8 years. The  underlying problems with most economies, particularly western Europe and the United States, have not improved. In fact, the amount of debt and the future ability to deal with a downturn is a lot more unstable than before. The amount of debt held by Western countries, businesses and individuals, has actually increased since 2007. This election year we hear from some who believe if we just raise taxes on the wealthy all will be well. Others contend that all will be well if we can just instill confidence that a solution is near. Sorry. All will not be well. Taxes would have to be doubled in most cases, which will cause an economic collapse, or government spending would have to be cut in half, which will also cause a collapse.

Of course the problem is that there has been an accumulation of extraordinary debt by all governments, corporations, and individuals. There is not a precedent for this situation in human history. While the housing bubble was the symptom that was burst, when gas rose to $4.00 a gallon, in the US the massive debts held by everyone was the real problem. Debts of individuals can be traced to central banks that have not been willing to clear excess debts since the early 1980’s. Instead, they have encouraged and enabled individuals to borrow beyond their means to repay. We now see a classic debt collapse scenario where people are having a hard time servicing the debt they have and banks are raising standards to stop losses...with the economy stagnating until the debts are reduced to normal levels. This may take decades rather than years. 　

A far bigger problem is the debt of governments, particularly in Western Europe and the US. These debts are a direct result of massive spending and the whole idea of democratic socialism where votes were bought by promising unsustainable benefits...to individuals, spending on projects, surveys, studies, ad nauseum... to the well connected. When fulfilling these promises could not be sustained by raising taxes they just borrowed the money to be consumed. The spending on projects, etc. is more easily addressed by just saying "NO"...BUT the spending on benefits is much more difficult to address. The real culprit in all this is that socialism has been a dismal failure whenever it has been tried. I should qualify that by distinguishing between voluntary and involuntary socialism.

Voluntary socialism is self limiting. An example is fire insurance. If the incidence of loss becomes excessive, premiums go up and some people may refuse to buy insurance. If losses become excessive insurance companies may refuse to enter that market. There are natural limits for both parties.

The first instance of collectivist failure was recorded in the New Testament. The early Christians, thinking that the end was near, sold there possessions, dined together and shared with each other. It was not long until Paul, hearing complaints from the responsible members of the community, wrote to them saying, “He who does not work shall not eat.” Human nature and the voluntary basis of this experiment was a natural remedy.

Another example was the Puritans who landed in Plymouth in 1620. They formed the, "Mayflower Compact," an agreement to share all property and work in common. After 3 years of this experiment, they were barely able to survive. The Puritan's endeavor had been financed by investors in Europe who hoped they would reap a profit by the Puritans repaying their debts with furs and other goods. After 3 years of no return, investors refused to send any more support and the idea was scrapped. The Puritans then distributed land to each family and they were on their own - the result was the beginning of prosperity for all.  It was chronicled by William Bradford that while the number of people who were either too weak or incapable of work grew, and the young and motivated were increasingly unhappy with the communal arrangement, many who formally were unable to add much to the community instantly became more productive when they were able to keep the fruits of their labor.

Remember the 1960’s  communes, where a few self motivated people bought a ranch and lived off the land? It was not long until they were supporting a larger and larger number of new disciples, who agreed it was wonderful, except for the motivation part. Again it ended in a natural turn of events and human nature.

Now to involuntary socialism. Of course the greatest example has to be the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. This experiment was immediate total government control that in the end was a dramatic failure. It may take Russia several generations to recover from the debacle. While touted by Socialists as the wonderful system of the future, (including Eleanor Roosevelt who visited the country many times in the 1930s when the worst atrocities were being committed), Solzhenitsyn and others saw and reported the true nature of the experiment. It's interesting to note that from the revolution in the USSR in 1917 to its collapse in 1989 was 72 years. If we take 1935 as the "embrace of socialism" in western Europe and the US, we end up at 2007. Does it take roughly this long for the failures of socialism to become unsustainable? While we have not had total control by the governments of western Europe or the US, we have been progressing in that direction for decades...hence the term progressivism. It has been a slow incremental movement that has taken control of most industries through regulation and has encouraged dependency by promising a safety net to those displaced by their policies. The part of the private sector that has not been effectively controlled by the government is the food and energy sector. They are in the process of taking over the energy sector and when they can control food they will have complete control of the economy and the people. Remember the winners of socialist economies are the ruling class who often live well off on what they skim off of the redistribution schemes. Even in the Soviet Union they lived well in their dachaus and had access to  travel and benefits that could only be dreamed of by the rest of the population.

While it all appears wonderful in theory, Unchangeable Human Nature has not been taken into account. Humans will help each other to some extent, but most will not jeopardize their or their families well-being for others. On a voluntary basis, many are willing to help those in need, in danger, etc. but as soon as it becomes involuntary, there will be resistance. This is just the nature of human survival instincts. While it may not measure up to the expectations of the ideologues of socialism, it is probably superior to all other organisms on earth. The Soviet experiment ended when there were no longer any incentives left. The Russians who have weathered one form of dictatorship for their whole existence were noted to remark to each other, "We pretend to work, and they pretend to pay us." In the end the only prospering part of the economy was the black market and flea markets.

So what has happened in every case of involuntary socialism?  Those who believe they are taxed too much will resist by finding ways to pay less; those who believe they are restricted in some way will find ways around the restrictions. Too much tax will usually create less revenue, etc. At first this is accepted or minimally enforced, but as the deficits grow, enforcement must increase and we see a cycle of increased enforcement, then less activity, then less revenue and if left to follow a linear path to forced labor and slavery.

In the U.S. there was once a work ethic and pride of self reliance - many would not accept charity -but after decades of increasing regulation and taxation it seems all restraint has fallen off and everyone will take and pursue more benefits, even if liquidating assets and claiming poverty is necessary. The dam has broken. The tipping point has been reached. It will not likely be restored by government action, or by acts of Congress; the same applies to Western Europe.

So what is the solution? At this point there is no easy solution. All solutions will require much pain and suffering. It may be limited by economic suffering and the necessary austerity to liquidate the debt and begin a new start with liberty and self reliance the foundation...OR...it may be that more enforcement will be needed until we return to feudal type society where basic necessities will be provided to the productive and compliant and those that do not conform will be eliminated from society by the powers that be.

originally published 2/11/2016

 

This is the question that will be answered when the coming collapse reaches its fulfillment.

update 9/1/22   We are about to see the fulfillment of this narrative, possibly within months in Western Europe and then on to the U.S.

update 3/10/2023  We see the new budget is increased by 1 Trillion dollars. Debt of over 31 Trillion. Inflation destroying buying power. It is all unsustainable. 

update 11/16/2023, all the problems are now more severe, $34 trillion debt, $2 trillion deficit. Bond market in trouble. Any attempts to fiscal responsibility labeled extreme. 

Ukraine fiasco has changed world alignments.

 UNANTICIPATED RESULTS OF NATO EXPANSION DREAM

NO PLAN B, NO GOOD RESULT

We still see the belief from this present administration that they can shape world events by introducing narrative's that support their policies. 

This week we saw a another weak attempt to shift the blame for the destruction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to some rogue Ukrainian who is presently in jail in Ukraine. It seems the realization of the consequences to the U.S. and its future European relations are being damaged by the implications of the U.S. being behind the sabotage. Gone is the bragging by Biden and Nuland of their great plan to separate Europe from Russian energy, especially with the onset of winter and the worsening European recession caused by a lack of energy.

Today we again hear of the failed Russian enterprise, the massive loss of Russian troops and the ultimate victory for Ukraine. A pathetic attempt to keep the appearances up, even after the devastation of Ukraine, the loss of any possibility of a favorable negotiation. It seems we can expect the attempt to keep the narrative up, at least until the next election.

Today Biden is also expected to have a conversation with Xi of China, only problem is, it seems Xi may have no intention of any meaningful dialogue with Biden. The fact is, China no longer answers the phone from Washington, refusing to listen to any more threats and attempts of intimidation. Biden says he does not want to decouple from China after 2 years of talking about decoupling from China. It seems like many foreign leaders do not buy into the Washington narrative, that may play well to unsuspecting American voters, but not sophisticated world leaders.

The fact is the misadventure of the U.S. policy in Ukraine has set in motion the realignment of world affairs. The introduction of a separate economic system that will put the west in a secondary position to that new system. It has alienated both Russia and China from being a positive influence in settling diplomatic crisis in other parts of the world. In the past there has been cooperation concerning terrorism and other disputes, now we will soon be standing alone. 

The one positive to this seperate growing economic coalition is that they do have influence to restrain their colleagues from creating any cahous that will interfere with their economic opportunity. This may be apparent with Iran and Saudi Arabia in the present crisis in Israel.

The Ukraine crisis will eventually end with a negotiation dominated by Russia. A settlement far worse for Ukraine than what they could have had early in the war. A settlement derailed by the Biden administration to further their delusional goals.

The economic status of the United States is now entering a precarious time with massive deficits, massive debt, a divided electorate, a depleted manufacturing base and a legal system that has failed to keep order in the cities and is increasingly used for political purposes.  Not a recipe for a positive future, and new innovative narratives will not correct any of these problems.

Election reform still needed.

SADLY, THERE WILL STILL BE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE UPCOMING ELECTION 

WITHOUT REFORM, INTEGRITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUESTIONED

There have been some attempts to reform election methods that will make them more trusted, but sadly it has not gone far enough. As long as we have unlimited mail in ballots, unguarded drop boxes, machines that are connected to the internet, counting done only in large counting centers, there will be questions. We cannot trust our election results to be based on trust of political election officials and elections need to have the ability to be audited.

Here in Pennsylvania we have a Supreme court that has disregarded the constitution numerous time concerning mail in ballots. They should be impeached for not doing their constitutional duty.

Elections are critical to the success of any democratic government. Honest and clearly legitimate elections can only be conducted and accepted by the population if the elections and their results are auditable. Elections must be 100% verifiable. There cannot be a system were the results need to be accepted on faith in the process or the people in charge of the elections. It is clear this is not presently the case with our election system here in Pennsylvania or in many other states. It is time to put into  place a full proof auditable system of elections.

1. General mail in voting is to be eliminated. It allows multiple opportunities for fraud, abuse and is not verifiable. 

2. Absentee voting with cause is allowable. This would accommodate the handicapped, nursing home and hospitalized persons, the military, and persons required to work out of their voting district on the general election day. All first time applications for absentee ballot would need to be affirmed by a physician, nursing home administrator, superior military officer or work supervisor. All absentee ballots would require the identification number of the drivers license or state Identification. This would assure their place of residence.

Applications for absentee ballots would be kept for 24 months from date of the general election. Absentee ballots and applications would have an identification number coinciding with a number on their voter registration. This is necessary to have an auditable system.

Absentee ballots would be required to be received 10 days before the general election. Absentee ballots would be opened by teams of representatives of all political parties involved in the election. These representatives would be vetted and supplied by the political parties. Each team would stamp the ballots as complete and genuine and be initialed by the team, each team would have a team number. The ballots that they approve will be counted by the team and placed in a sealed container with a result of their count. A copy of their count will be placed on the outside of the container and each team member will keep a copy of their totals. On the general election day, all teams will be present to add their totals to general count and verify they are correct. All these ballots will be kept for 24 months from the general election.

3. General election ballots will also have a number placed on them coinciding with the number on the voters registration. This could be a number from the registration or coinciding with the signature record at the voting place. Ballots are to be counted by teams made up of individuals from all political parties involved in election. Ballots are counted at the precinct level and all ballots are sealed in boxes by the teams with a copy of the results inside, outside and kept by members of the team. Results are then communicated to county. All ballots will be kept for 24 months after the general election.

 Election Audit

Before any proclamation or certification of the results of an election an election audit team made up of representatives of all political parties involved in the election shall conduct a random sampling of districts for audit. These teams will be vetted and supplied by the political parties. They will begin their audits with both sides picking 6 districts or precincts in their county for spot auditing. This would be accomplished by picking 50 ballots from each selected district, identifying the voters and contacting them to verify their votes. If the results are 100 %. in all districts, no further action would be needed, if not there would need to be a more complete audit.

Registration

Registration may be performed as now, requiring Identification and also a group of auditors composed of representatives from all political parties to work together to assure addresses and voters are real. Registrations will be purged if voter does not participate in 2 consecutive presidential elections, or any other elections. Voter will be notified that his registration has lapsed with instructions as to how to re-register. 

The goal of this system of voting is to have an opportunity for representatives of both parties to work together and insure that everyone is satisfied that an honest and fair election has taken place. It should insure that the election results are recorded in a timely manner, without any doubts as to the validity of the vote. With precincts limited to 2000 voters, hand counting should be accomplished in several hours. This would eliminate the cost of electronic voting machines which have a high level of distrust by voters. This is a simple, less costly and fully auditable system that all Americans can and deserve to trust.

originally published 11/2/21

After 2022, now 2023, election integrity is still not assured. If not corrected, we will soon see a decline in voting and the real end of democracy.

Biggest threat to U.S. is economic.

 OVERSHADOWS ALL MILITARY THREATS

ECONOMIC DECLINE UNSTOPPABLE, BUT MAYBE MANAGEABLE

We see the United States focused on military conflicts around the world, most of them brought about by the United States intentions or incompetence. The real threat is now here, it is economic and will change the direction of the country for decades.

Everyone has po-poed the rise in the national debt, but now it appears there is a dwindling number of buyers for this debt. This translates to a higher cost of borrowing to entice buyers. It is estimated that the cost of servicing this debt is going to be $1 Trillion and rising. The forecast is that the deficit, just this year, will be $2 trillion. Spending in Washington is out of control and there is no end in sight. There may be no end to the spending but the end of unlimited debt is coming. This is going to cost everyone in the value of their investments and the rising cost of living. It is not a maybe, it is for sure.

The fiscal situation in this country is such that if the government actually balanced the budget, by cutting spending, it would lead to economic collapse, as so much of the economy is now dependent on borrowed government spending. 

Then again, if the government raised taxes to balance the budget it would syphon off much of the decretory spending of everyone and would cause economic collapse.

The United States has for decades used its ability to create money out of thin air in an attempt to buy allies, to sanction competitors and control events around the world and that time is coming to an end. 

Other nations are increasingly interested in struggling free of this economic  power and chart their own course, much of the impetise is the arbitrary use of the dollar for sanctions and the declining value of its buying power. If the dollar was still "as good as Gold", this would not be happening. This is a result of the mismanagement by our elected officials and the greed of those who profit from transacting all this debt. 

We can expect to hear the blame placed on foreign conspirators and adversaries trying to ruin the United States. We may even hear of calls for war to save the economy. We can expect other draconian schemes pushed on the  American people, but will we see any effort to change their ways and become responsible for their past actions. 

This situation could be managed, but the United States would have to review its role in the world and realize the attempt to rule the world has failed. It has created enemies, alienated allies and destroyed the economy. If the country does not focus inward, to heal and restore the American experiment, it will inevitably be a shadow of its former self.

Hamas not popular with any neighbors.

 NO ONE WANTS TO RISK WAR TO SAVE HAMAS

HAMAS WILL NOT BE SAVED

Israel has finally agreed to allow humanitarian aid and a path for more civilians to flee northern Gaza. Hopefully this will relieve tensions a bit to avoid a spreading conflict. It is becoming clear that no one is really that concerned with the fate of Hamas. Everyone has distanced themselves from their attack on Israel. The denials have come from Hezbollah, Iran and every major country in the region. While Iran may have supplied weapons to Hamas they may very well have not been involved in the planning.

The present problem is that there is still no plan for a resolution of the long term situation. It would be in Israel's interest to be talking of some plan, even while destroying Hamas. If it appears that Israel does not want any plan, it will just make any real relief of the tensions possible.

Some believe that Israel's goal is to displace the residents in Gaza and the west bank and return Israel to its biblical boundaries. That will be a hard sell, but it seems that there is substantial support within Israel for just that. If that is Israel's goal it may be the prelude to a more serious conflict.

Probably the only thing keeping Israel from destroying all of Hamas is the hostage situation. When the return of the hostages is believed to be no longer possible, Hamas can be eventually eliminated.

While many believe Israel cannot destroy Hamas or that it would be too costly in casualties, it is far simpler than they understand. Israel controls and has at its disposal the greatest destroyer of underground tunnels. To the west is an unlimited supply of water that with the assistance of large pumps used in the mining industry, would make it possible to flood the tunnels with water.  It will find its way into every nook and cranny of the underground facilities. No remedy for Hamas, no way out, they will either come up or die were they are.

Ukraine and Georgia EU membership: Cynical desperation.

 NOT LIKELY ANYTIME SOON

RUSSIA WILL FIND THIS HUMOROUS

The EU's latest attempt at relevancy is there attempt to signal that they are considering allowing Ukraine and Georgia to become EU members. One must wonder what the motive is behind such an unlikely possibility.

There several reasons why this is not a serious declaration. One is Ukraine is in the middle of a war, I believe that immediately disqualifies them from membership.  Then it is hardly believable that the nationalist government in Ukraine will accept the immigration policies of the EU. They already have resistance from current members Hungary and Poland.  Finally, Ukraine is an economic basket case and will remain so for decades, even after any conclusion of his conflict.  It is doubtful EU members want to take over the support of the government of Ukraine for an undefined future.

Georgia has similar problems, they will not qualify for EU membership for decades.

So, why this offer now? Maybe the U.S. prompted this hoping it could shift support for Ukraine to the EU. Maybe they believe this is a bargaining chip with Russia over ending this conflict. Why no mention of NATO membership?  Russia was not opposed to Ukraine membership in the EU as long as it did not forbid trade with Russia, now they may no longer even care about trade with Ukraine or the EU and will be glad to let the burden be placed on the EU.

Of course, any future for Ukraine will be a substantially smaller nation and the tendency of these eastern European nations has been for their brightest to immediately immigrate to other western nations. This reality will be another obstacle to EU membership.

Then of course there is always the possibility of replacing this lost talent with several million Palestinian refugees and thereby solve 2 problems at once.

N.Y. attorney general, Democrat hero and social media star.

 A REAL EXAMPLE OF CORRUPT LEGAL SYSTEM

AMERICA NEEDS A SOUL SEARCHING AND MORAL REVIVAL

The big news it seems is the show trial ongoing in New York, A celebration of the hatred and unbridled length that democrat operatives will go in their quest to retain power. It is a perfect example of why they should never be in a position of power. These show trials based on no legal precedent or law, a civil action brought by an admitted biased Attorney General, whose whole career has been defined by persecuting Donald Trump and his family and business.

She has now stooped so low as to spend every day on social media proclaiming how she is not being intimidated by Donald Trump, how she is now the hero of the left. She is a disgrace to anything that should insinuate to be a legal process. This blatant power hungry individual should be a warning to all in this country of what may lay ahead. Show trials and persecution of the political opposition is just a first step in where such people would go.

We have already seen the extreme sentences, incarceration without trial and over the top handling of the people who were at the Jan.6 rally that got out of control. The sentences were extreme for most all these people and a real contradiction as to how the burning and looting and violence of democrat operatives like Black lives matter and Antifia were handled. We see all these trials taking place in large democrat districts where a fair trial is now impossible.

If these type of legal injustices are allowed to be condoned and continued, can mass oppression of the opposition by more outrageous legal action be far behind. It is the pattern that has been witnessed by oppressive governments forever. 

We already see an erosion of the trust of the American people in the institutions of government from the FBI, Intelligence service, media, election system and the legal system. It should be understood that these actions are all a warning to anyone who would challenge their power as to what they will do to retain that power.

While ultimately they may very well succeed, if they have not already, they will rule over a weaker, less prosperous and far less important country on the world stage. A country to be despised rather than admired.

Delusional attempt to sanitize war.

 WAR WITH RULES IS AN ILLUSION

WITHOUT DEFINITE CONCLUSION, THERE IS NO PEACE

We continuously hear accusations of war crimes and the breaking of the rules of war. During and after WW 1 there was an attempt to sanitize war by enacting rules that should be followed in war. This may make people feel better and give people in suits behind desks the feeling of righteousness and fairness, but to those who are laying in the mud next to their dead comrades, rules are indeed an illusion that is only enforced by the winner of a war. On the battlefield, survival is all that is relevant and it is by any means available.

We hear that it is unlawful to target schools, hospitals and churches, so any enemy considering surviving will attempt to hide in such places and then attack his enemy hoping he may not respond. 

When a combatant is losing he will hope for a ceasefire, and armistice or some other opportunity to rearm, enlist recruits, or persuade allies to come to his rescue.

Germany was persuaded to sign an armistice in WW1 with a proposed peace plan, then after a year the terms were changed and directly led to the WW2. The result was far worse than WW1.

Recently several nations arranged the Minx accords to stop the conflict in Ukraine and then intentionally used the time to arm Ukraine to fight with Russia.

We see attempts to end war without real conclusions, no winner, no loser, no change of circumstances. It seems it just postpones the inevitable conclusion to some time in the future. It is beginning to appear that those times maybe a thing of the past.

The Israeli/Palestinian conflict has been ongoing for 70 years. The partition of Korea another 70 years. The cold war with Russia seems to be very lucrative and still ongoing. Conclusions have been either unobtainable or have been intentionally abstained from for political or economic reasons.There is no conclusion in sight.

WW2 was the last conflict that was concluded, there were winners and losers, very clearly. Peace followed for the next 70 years. In history, war has always been horrific, always lots of suffering, usually until that generation has been exhausted and had enough bloodletting and misery. Eventually the next generation or maybe 2, forget and find war more acceptable, especially if they can make rules to make it less horrific. 

If the wars that are simmering on the horizon become reality, there will very likely be no rules. There is even the possibility of no winners, just losers. One must wonder if we are about to enter the era of conclusions to the long build up of economic, political and social strife. 

 

Weak, divided America can not rule the world.

 A STRONG, UNITED, SELF SUFFICIENT AMERICA IS ITS STRENGTH

30 YEARS OF OVEREXTENSION AND DIVISION 

We see conflict and an increasingly dangerous world. The United States is directly involved in most every dispute and conflict in the world. The belief that we can and should control the direction of the world is the root cause of were the world is today.

The United States became the greatest nation in worlds history, because it was a rich in natural resources, it was isolated geographically by two great oceans from most all its potential enemies and it had a unified belief of the population in the promise of the country being a land of laws and opportunity. It was truly a light upon the hill and an example to the rest of the world.

We watched as the Soviet Union's experiment in socialism and central control of the economy eventually collapsed by its inevitable conflict with basic human nature. We then preceded to emulate its failed policies by increasingly adopting those failed policies. We can say the same for Western Europe, while both are still alive and functioning, they are but a shadow of their former selves in their self reliance, work ethic, legal system and the move to control every aspect of life from Washington and Brussels. 

At the same time, both have sought to manage the affairs and control events around the world. It is becoming clear, that its ability to control the direction of the world is coming to an end. The western world is over extended, its economies are over extended in debt, its social adhesion is fragmenting and chaos is becoming the norm rather than the exception. 

While not yet vulnerable to existential failure, the need for a change of direction and policy is now eminent before that becomes the new reality. Denial is always the biggest crutch of those who are in trouble. Just believe it is not so and the problems will go away. 

Sadly, human history has a view of an empires demise, and it is not a positive picture. Like human tragedy, they usually have to hit the point of desperation before they feel the need to change direction.

Are modern middle-east leaders more pragmatic?

 MAJOR ISLAMIC COUNTRIES DO NOT WANT WAR

MANY UNANSWERED QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS CRISIS

It is now 4 weeks since the devastating attack on Israel. While public opinion has shifted in some ways to be opposed to the Israeli response, we still do not see any appetite for war in the region.

One must wonder about a few things, number 1 is the fact that this attack was not detected by Israel. Israel has the most sophisticated surveillance and intelligence in the world, yet this attack came as a complete surprise. Several thousand participants with hang gliders, drones and other preparations, it is a big question.

For months the division in Israel has been unprecedented. Some believe that the country was on the verge of civil war. One must wonder if the government calculated that an attack would end this division and unite the country in a common purpose. No one could believe that they anticipated such a horrendous brutal attack, but maybe they thought it could just be a wake up call to the compacent population, that was far more brutal than anticipated.

As for Hamas, it is clear that they saw the positive negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia as a threat to their future as a representative of the Palestine cause. They intentionally wanted to make sure that the Israeli response would be dramatic and devastating in the hope that they could rally the Islamic world to their rescue. While it appears on the surface that this has worked, the reality may be far more complex. 

Israel on the other hand, would very much like to diminish the ability of Iran to wage war on them, they cannot do that on their own and a wider war could drag the U.S. into such a war. So far, it seems that even Iran does not want war. 

Many anticipate that the negotiations with Israel and Saudi Arabia and the Abraham accords are dead, but that may not be the case. It seems the appetite for a positive economic future for the gulf countries, Egypt and even Iran are possibly overriding any appetite for war. Even Hezbollah, which is the political governing body of Lebanon may believe the risks of war outway the risks to their long term economic future. Of course this is speculation, but we have not seen any real move to intervene in this crisis. 

One must wonder if there has been a calculation that it is time for Hamas to go and then some serious attempt at a settlement of this Palestinian issue. A calculation that has been in the works for those in the region. 

Both China and Russia have some influence on all involved and they are looking to a seperate world economic system that will protect them from the economic power of the west. This arrangement is also appealing to Egypt, Iran and Saudi Arabia and possibly even Israel. War would possibly disrupt that looming reality and a real settlement of the Israel/Palestine issue is important for that to succeed. Hamas must go, as they are not interested in any settlement than allows Israel to exist. 

The neighboring countries in the region could see the possibility of cooperation with the expertise and technology of Israel to bring a economic boom to everyone in this region. 

We will see in the coming months, if everyone can get past this interruption and move to a more positive hope for everyone in the middle-east.

Electric vehicle sales hit wall, most production suspended.

 THE RISKS OF GOVERNMENT CONTROLLED ECONOMIES

WITHOUT SUBSIDES AND EXTORTION EVS WOULD HAVE BEEN MARKET BASED

In the last few weeks every major car manufacture has suspended production of their electric vehicles. Ford, VW, GM, Honda, Toyota all have a backlog of unsold EVS with near 100 days of vehicles on lots. Some believe that the sale of all electric vehicles are in trouble, while hybrids and tradition sales are sound.

When something new comes on the market, there is always the rush by the more impulsive and trend setters to try it out, that rush may have now been satisfied and others are now more reluctant to take the plunge.

Most manufacturers admit that EV's may be premature as there is not the necessary infrastructure to make them acceptable. They are not viable for those who engage in long trips or extended driving. No one want tp stop every 4 hours and wait several hours to recharge their vehicles.

Tesla, has of course continued production, but admits sales have slowed, there again is probably a satisfying of demand for those who can use an electric vehicle. If much of your driving is near home and you have a charging ability at your home, it is probably a viable option.

Manufacturers have testified that they have been under tremendous government pressure to go to all electric vehicles. They now believe there will be a market for these vehicles, but the idea of going all electric will face huge market resistance. Some believe the goal should be the lesser production of carbon emissions and that the companies are exploring other fuels and other approaches that will be more market based.

Whenever government makes decisions that are not based on what people want or accept, there will be problems, this is a perfect example. Hopefully the result will not be a domestic auto manufacturer crisis that will then need a government bailout to rescue them from these government decisions.

Electric vehicles do have a place in the transportation market, but consumers need to make these decisions based on their own preferences and needs.

U.S. peacekeepers a very bad idea.

 U.S. NEEDS TO STAY FAR AWAY FROM GAZA

ONLY UN PEACEKEEPERS ACCEPTABLE

The Israeli/Hamas conflict is now entering its 3rd week.  Not much has changed, Israel is going to continue until it is satisficed that Hamas is no longer a serious threat to Israel. It seems that Israel has decided that it is not going to be persuaded to relent even as threats of retaliation from Turkey, Iran and other groups threaten to intervene. While this is understandable, Israel also has to consider alternatives that give this displaced population some alternative to the present situation.

So far, no one has voiced any serious plan to remedy this 70 year conflict. A two state solution, with a Palestinian state on the border of Israel, is no solution at all. Giving this population the legitimacy of a country will not change the dynamics of this conflict. In fact, Gaza and the West bank have had opportunities to grow these areas into independent viable economic entities, but then voted to choose  Hamas, whose charter calls for the elimination of Israel, as the governing body. That just indicates to Israel that these populations are united in their desire to eliminate Israel.

Indications are that Israel has decided that the present situation is to end now. No more rockets fired into Israel, no more terrorist acts and if it brings the rest of the world into global conflict, so be it. It is yet another dilemma with Israel at the center. 

Coupled with this is the view by some in the Israeli community, by some in the Iranian and Islamic community and some Christians that the messiah will only come when the world is on the brink of total destruction. There is the possibility that they will get their wish.

The U.S. has proposed U.S. peacekeepers to go to Gaza. They would just be targets that would threaten to escalate the conflict. The U.S. is not a neutral entity, they need to stay out of this. A U. N. peacekeeper force with some Arab participation would be a much better option. It needs to be very temporary and the large countries in the region need to start debating a permanent solution, other than the elimination of Israel. A homeland separate from the borders of Israel. I suspect that many Palestinians are ready for a different hope for the future. 

It will take some real diplomats and a serious commitment from all in the region to make this happen. It is past time to end this dispute, the alternative is certainty no longer acceptable.