Day 62, Countdown to military escalation.

 TRUMP GOING DOWN 

NO MORE TALKING DOWN THE OIL PRICE 

Market price of oil today is $106 a barrel, actual price in Asia is over $200 a barrel. It is the ultimate pressure on the Trump administration to make a decision on the direction of this war with Iran. It is unlikely that there is any real effort for a peaceful solution. Iran will not sacrifice their future sovournity for a temporary promise without any assurance that sanctions and war will not be in the future. Trump will not do any deal that will make him appear to have capitulated. Israel and the Christian Zionists want Iran to look like Gaza. The Neocons have been anticipating the control of Iran's oil for 46 years.

It appears that the war will now enter a new phase, as military resources are pouring into the region. Iran understands this and is preparing to respond accordingly. With the price of oil now increasing by the day and all the artificial restraints on the prices coming to an end, resumption of war looks imminent, again. 

Trump has only one way to escape this coming catastrophe and that is jettison all the warmongers and return to his pre-election campaign promises. It is time for him to stand up, no matter the consequences, if he has any hope to avoid surpassing Jimmy Carter as the worst president in history, so far. We will see if he really does have a spine left or is under the control of all the worst elements in Washington and Tel Aviv. 

Day 61, Time for new approach?

 BOTH UKRAINE AND IRAN WARS COULD BE ENDED QUICKLY?

COSTS AND CONSEQUENCES WOULD BE INCALCULABLE

We continually hear that the war in Ukraine will end when Putin decides that the cost of continuing is too high to continue. Then we hear a similar narrative concerning the Iran war, Iran will submit when they consider the cost too high. In both cases, Russia and Iran consider these conflicts an existential fight for the survival of their nations. 

Russia, we are told is not winning and the conflict is at a standstill, this narrative is all about hoping for a positive outcome for Ukraine and its benefactor NATO. We no longer hear the narrative that Putin wants to reassemble the Soviet Union, that if not stopped in Ukraine, he will march to the Atlantic. A contradiction if anyone really believes they are stymied in Ukraine. Russia could end this war in a very consolidated time if they decided to reap devastation on Ukraine by using their capabilities and likely without the use of nuclear weapons. There has been continuous debate in Russia by many to end this as soon as possible, it has been rejected by Putin and those presently in power.

Few are willing to admit that his war is about NATO expansion, the encirclement of Russia, a clear security threat to Russia.  It is always the narrative about the expansionist hunger of Putin. No one ever explains what Russia would want from western Europe, by expanding westward. Russia has the largest store of natural resources in the world and would likely want a peaceful existence to develop those resources for the prosperity of Russia. Before this conflict, Russia had a small but technologically advanced military and of course, nuclear weapons. Russia was not threatening anyone and attempted to come to a resolution of NATO expansion by peaceful means. While many would rather entertain that Russia is a villian, the reality is the west covets the resources of Russia, wants to own them, not buy them, as this would increase the wealth of Russia, considered a threat for the future. All competitors must be contained so as they are less wealthy than the U.S. and western Europe. Forget about mutual prosperity, something that was working quite well with the supply of energy from Russia to western Europe.

While many still want to focus on nuclear weapons in Iran, it is clear to anyone who wants to see the truth that Iran did not have nuclear weapons or a desire for them. They engaged in and revealed their enhanced enrichment only after the U.S. pulled out of the nuclear deal that they had complied with. The U.S. never fulfilled their part to end economic sanctions, which have been ongoing since 1979. The enhanced enrichment was a strategy to being back a negotiated settlement, There is no desire of any such settlement by the U.S., it wants the oil and Israel wants Iran to be far weaker than Israel.  The U.S. has been hoping to topple the government of Iran since 1979, by one means or another, all because it covets the oil and other resources of Iran. Again, keep Iran contained, as if left to engage in free enterprise they would become wealthy and that is to be opposed. 

In Ukraine, if Russia decides to take out all the bridges and rail in Ukraine, which it has resisted doing, hoping for a gradual decimation of Ukraine's ability to resist, it could hasten the end of this conflict.  If Europe truly wants so raise an army and go to war with Russia, the whole of western Eurasia will be destroyed in the process.

If the U.S. wants to do the same to Iran, it will result in a global economic downturn that will last for decades. 

Much of the reason for a strong desire to double down rather than really seek a long term peaceful solution is Hubris, needing to be a winner, both for NATO and the U.S. . While many desire all out war to come to a conclusion, a realization that a new cooperative seeking of mutual prosperity, may still be possible. Can it be accomplished by real negotiations or does the world first need to experience global catastrophe.

WW3 is consuming what is left of the Global order.

 IS TODAY'S WARFARE BECOMING UNAFFORDABLE

MASSIVE COSTS, LITTLE RESULTS

Today, we see the Iran war at a standstill, the Ukrainian war now in its 4th year and no end in sight. The cost of the Ukraine war, not only to Russia, but to the EU countries and the U.S. just in material cost may be close to $1 trillion dollars. Then there is the damage to infrastructure, another $1 Trillion and the loss of revenue to the whole EU many more Trillions.  It all could have been avoided with a neutral non aligned Ukraine that was positioned to be the most prosperous nation in Europe. With no end in sight this war will drain the resources of all involved, with no hope of economic prosperity for years to come. We hear the call for more weapons, raising armies and continued efforts to stay on the same path.  New leadership is needed all across Europe or they will continue to descend into the economic abyss.

With the Iran war now entering its 3rd month, it seems the new strategy is to attempt to force capitulation by economic blockade. It seems it is now a series of "let's try this". We hear that capitulation is imminent, very similar to the predictions about Russia. Is it realistic to believe that the Iranian people really believe that the U.S. and Israel have their best interests in mind. I suspect that no matter how bad it will become they will suck it up and hunker down. This war is well over $100 billion in material cost to the U.S.,  unaccounted costs of the resources provided to Israel and the Gulf countries, $100's of billions in infrastructure damage to U.S. bases in the region.  Incalculable costs to the global economy, possibly approaching $1 Trillion and counting. Yet there is no end in sight. Mostly brought about by Israel's unwillingness to solve any disputes by any other means than U.S. military power.

The U.S. alone has probably wasted over $10 trillion in costs in mideast wars over that last 3 decades.

As bad as the global situation is, it is not all, A campaign is beginning by Israel to focus on Turkey as its next dragon to be slain, similar propaganda as we have seen in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Iran. 

Then there is Africa were we see  conflict increasing daily often by Islamic mercenaires supported by western powers who are engaging in terrorism, assassinations and attempt to overthrow new governments, who hope to finally end colonial exploitation by western powers. 

The reality is, we are already in the midst of WW3, it is an effort to continue the post WW2 global order that is now exhausting itself in an attempt to stop the loss of that power, A power that is already lost due to massive debts and a decimated manufacturing base. It is similar to a double or nothing throw of the dice, that appears to most likely produce a big nothing.

Day 59, Blockade continues, Iran controls exit.

   GLOBAL ECONOMY CANNOT SUSTAIN PRESENT SITUATION

WILL IRAN OR GLOBAL ECONOMY BLINK FIRST?

While the war is still on pause, the strategy, at least for now, seems to be an attempt to strangle the Iranian economy, especially its oil revenues. It is also strangling the oil revenues of the other oil producing countries in the region, who have debts and also a complete loss of their travel destination revenue. It is doubtful that this can continue much longer or that the oil prices can be restrained by talk of imminent negotiations. It seems no negotiations are really in the immediate future.

The U.S. does not actually have ships in the strait of Hormuz, but are stationed at the entrance to the Arabian sea near the Pakistani border. At this point the sea is over 350 miles wide and spreads to over 1500 miles. The U.S. has 9 destroyers and 3 other ships capable of policing this area. Ships that stay close to the Pakistani and Indian border in territorial waters are not being stopped by the U.S.. Iran is still allowing limited traffic out of the strait at its discretion.

While those 12 ships can limit the flow of traffic, it may be very difficult to cut off traffic completely. Once ships get past the barricade line the sea widens dramatically and decisions have to be made as to which ships to pursue and if ships are seized they will need to be escorted by at least one ship to a place of holding. This soon gets to be a difficult job at best.

Israel has stated that they are ready to resume hostilities, but it seems at least for now, Trump is reluctant to further risk the effects of renewed fighting. This situation can not go on indefinitely and it is unlikely a negotiated peace that is acceptable to all is possible. A real dilemma that foresees no good result.

Day 56. No win for Israel or U.S. in Iran war.

 ALL OPTIONS HAVE BAD RESULTS

IRAN WANT CONCLUSIVE END, NOT POSTPONEMENT

Now 8 weeks and no end in sight for the Iran, Israel, U.S. war. All options will lead to negative results, some will lead to catastrophic economic and political results. some will lead to diminished U.S. credibility, all will end with negative results for Israel. 

Option 1, is the threat of destroying Iran's infrastructure in a massive escalation of the war. This will trigger a response by Iran in destroying the infrastructure of the gulf countries and Israel. It seems everyone has concluded that they can effectivity do just that. This will lead to the political disintegration of the gulf countries and a global economic crisis. Can Israel survive more war?

Option 2, declare victory and end the conflict, without any real peace agreement. Iran will then control the Strait and reap financial benefits by it's tolls, the U.S. will lose credibility and Israel will be very disappointed. 

Option3, keep up the blockade, without resuming military action and hope Iran will be forced to capitulate. The question is will the global economy and the political prospects in the Gulf implode before Iran.

Option 4, end the conflict by negotiation, a negotiation that can only be accomplished with Iran gaining many positive benefits, like an end to sanctions, ability to engage in nuclear activity for at least peaceful purposes and guarantees of no future military action. A deal similar to the one, that the U.S. withdrew from, but done by treaty with more guarantees that it will not be ripped up by some future president..

Option 5, destroy Iran with Nuclear weapons, all bets are off were that would end. 

The problem is Israel wants Iran destroyed as a viable country, it wants it to look like Gaza or Syria. It can not accomplish that without U.S. assistance. If it tried, it would be destroyed by Iran and its other enemies. Israel understands that it has lost its public support all around the world and this will be its last opportunity to destroy Iran.

The Neocons have embarked on a decades long policy of controlling all mideast oil, they will resist any permanent change in that hope. 

Trump most likely cannot come out a winner in any option, he may be the lamest duck president in history, if this conflict drags on, and under the best conditions this conflict is many months from any real conclusion. Trump has allowed himself to be trapped by listening to both his real enemies and those who are only interested in what they perceive to be in their best interest. Iran was not really as weak as many claimed, and its population does not view the U.S. and Israel ever acting in the best interest of the Iranian people. They understand that Israel wants them destroyed and the U.S. covets their oil. There is no going back to pre-February 28, the future for all will be very different, no matter how this concludes.

Day 54, Ceasefire extended, expect escalation.

 HAS IRAN GIVEN UP ON NEGOTIATIONS?

CLOCK IS TICKING ON MANY FRONTS

It seems the negotiation charade is now over, Iran ignored all new attempts at another negotiation is Pakistan. It is reported that the Iranians showed up in Pakistan with a staff of 70, prepared for meaningful negotiations based on their 10 point plan. The U.S. showed up with Vance, accompanied by Kushner and Witcoff, who Iran has little confidence in, the result was that after continuous consultation with Trump and Netanyahu, Vance left for home. Iran has voiced the opinion that they will not negotiate under threats and will not meet until there's a serious negotiation.

So, it seems the U.S. forces have replenished their ordinance and it is likely that a intense resumption of hostilities is imminent, again. Iran claims that their response will be equally intense. Meanwhile the strait remains under the control of Iran. As long as the strait is closed, the global energy crisis will worsen by the day.

It seems the populations worldwide are no longer easily convinced to endorse war, particularly wars of choice and aggression, rather than defense. I suspect that if there was a real threat to the U.S., volunteers would be numerous, I think the last time the U.S. was attacked by a foreign nation at home was 1812, and of course 1941 in Hawaii. Be aware of false flag possibilities to raise the favorbidily of more war.

Yesterday there were reports that the U.S. is increasing the maximum age for recruits to 42, from 27 before. They may also now have tattoos and possible marijuana convictions. Will they also raise the draft age to 42? 

Germany, now convinced that they are under threat from Russia, is attempting to expand their military without much success, they recently stated that recruits could be up to 70. 

In the U.S., Palantir a technology company that provides targeting and other intelligence information to Israel and the U.S. is recommending national service be mandatory in the U.S. War becomes more difficult, if no one wants to go.

In the U.S. no one ever talks about the damage that has been done to the reserve system that in the last 30 years has been used as a supplement to the regular armed forces often demanding several one year tours of duty. This has resulted in high levels of divorce and broken and financially devastated families, unable to pay mortgages etc. The reserve system was intended to be just that, in case of serious threats to the nation, not a manpower supply for continuous war. The failure to meet goals for recruitment will continue.

We can expect that escalation will be the next step. Israel want Iran devastated, the neocons want the oil. War is far easier to get into, than out of. 

Day 53, Ceasefire ends tomorrow.

 NO CONFIRMATION OF NEW TALKS

IT APPEARS U.S. NOT READY FOR SERIOUS TALKS

While we hear reports of the imminent travel of U.S. negotiators to Islamabad, there is no new confirmation of talks. Iran indicates that they see no change of position from the U.S. other than surrender. Iran also indicates that they are prepared for the next round of hostilities. The U.S. walked out of the talks last weeks and Iran claimed that their negotiators were threatened, they said last week that they would  not return to Islamabad as they feared that they would be murdered enroute. They also reported that the U.S. negotiators were not prepared to make any decisions and spent a lot of time talking to Washington and Tel Aviv. 

There is no one on the U.S. team who has ever been to Iran and knows little of Iran or has any experience or knowledge of nuclear negotiations. The type of negotiations necessary for a serious resolution would take many weeks and be staffed with people who understand the subjects being discussed. Iran may be correct in assuming these so called talks are just so much theater without any serious efforts at a real solution.

The U.S. congress passed an aid package for Israel that was not about defense but about the destruction of Lebanon, it was made up of 2000 lb. bombs and bulldozers, so it seems the U.S. is paying for the leveling of Lebanon similar to what has happened in GAZA.

The UAE is talking about seeking reparations from the U.S. to damage to its country caused by the U.S. attack on Iran.

We can expect more dramatics today as the ceasefire is about to end, Trump will either need to attack, with all the consequences, or look for some other solution. Israel and the neocons want more war, there probably will be more war.

Day 52, Standoff at the Strait.

 OPEN, BLOCKADE, CLOSED AGAIN

MISSED OPPORTUNITY TO ALLOW CAPTIVES TO FLEE 

This weekend, Iran opened the strait of Hormuz to all traffic in response to the ceasefire in Lebanon. Trump welcomed the opening, but insisted that the U.S. would block all traffic to and from Iran until Iran, in effect, surrenders,  Iran promptly again closed the strait to all traffic. This was a missed opportunity to allow all those stranded ships in the Persian gulf to exit, a humanitarian gesture overridden by Trump's desire to look tough.

So now with 2 more days to the end of the ceasefire the strait is closed and looks like that will be the case for the foreseeable future. While some believe that blockading the strait by the U.S. will cause Iran to capitulate, it is more likely to damage world energy supplies, before it has real effects on Iran's determination. Iran is mostly self sufficient in food and energy and still can import supplies from the Caspian sea and rail to the north. It appears that Trump will indeed, as predicted, be tied up in Iran for much longer than anticipated, if not for the rest of his presidency.

Of course we still hear the threats of military devastation to Iran if they persist, but Iran has also threatens to destroy much of the energy producing facilities and desalination plants in the region, if again attacked. Such a retaliation will then cause a global economic crisis that will no longer be able to be controlled by any narrative.  Attempts to secure the strait by force or take Kharg island will probably end in the same result.

Trump claimed that there were more talks in store, but Iran made it clear that they would no longer participate in mock negotiations that were merely more efforts to force capitulation or influence the energy or stock markets. 

So, it is indeed a classic standoff, a frustration for the greatest power on earth, especially from a country deemed inferior and not worthy of any respect. It is just the kind of situation were reasonable logical thinking can be overcome by rage and emotion, especially when the whole world is watching.

Day 49, U.S. goal is global dominance, ignore the rest.

CONTROL OF IRANIAN OIL ONE STEP 

MAYBE A PAUSE, BUT CONFLICT WILL CONTINUE 

Many find it hard to understand what the goals of the United States are, it is often characterized as no goal, or no plan, or chaos. It is clear there is a goal and it is proceeding. In fact, this goal has been advancing for the last 35 years, if not longer. The goal is retaining the United States dominate position in the world, both politically and economically. The problem is that the United States is losing that position economically with massive debt, corruption and fiscal irresponsibility. The dollar, the cornerstone of the U.S. economic dominance, is a shadow of it former status because of that fiscal irresponsibility.  The U.S. manufacturing base is continuing to decline and be uncompetitive in the global arena, this again is due to over regulation, crony capitalism and corruption. 

Many hoped that the U.S. was about to embark on a policy of reform and renewal through the age old process of good government and fiscal responsibility, weeding out the massive corruption at every level and embracing tried and true business practices. It appears that that has been rejected, Washington now believes that dominance can be retained and even enhanced by military power, coercion, bribery and brute force. It is the age old policy of empire, but an empire that has already lost its manufacturing ability to sustain that brute force and its economic power has been squandered by fiscal irresponsibility and corruption. The brute force policy of the last 35 years has resulted in massive debt, and a flight from the dollar, yet this policy is being doubled down on, hoping the U.S. can still dominate by gaining access to the resource of others.

The present step is gaining control of oil resources of Iran, it is not about any other reason that has been offered to justify this use of force. Control of Iranian oil and then the next step, control of all the Gulf oil, is believed to give the U.S. control of the economies of southeast Asia. Of course, the main target is China, which has been under assault by propaganda as an enemy of the U.S., hoping to unseat the U.S. as the global leader. All that China has done is embrace the good business practices of the an earlier U.S. and has reaped success. 

It is clear, we have demonized Iraq and then taken control its oil, we demonized Venezuela and have taken control its oil, we have demonized Iran in an effort to take control of its oil. We have demonized Russia to hopefully break it up and take control of its resources. If you view U.S. foreign policy in that light it is far easier to understand the plan. Expect to see a reason to go after Nigerian oil in the near future.

At present, the U.S. has lost domestic support for foreign wars, but we see the planned increase in defense or war spending by 50%, we hear calls for shifting production of our remaining manufacturing to war supplies. Then what is needed is massive support at home for more war that is usually accomplished by an assault on the U.S. similar to 911 or Pearl harbor. The intelligence community is now an expert at such projects.

Of course, much of the world now understands what is going on and so far has only reacted, even Iran only reacts to U.S. escalation. One may expect that our adversaries will soon decide that push back is necessary, first by economic means, shedding U.S. debt and embargoes of material to the U.S.. This will set off an escalating action and reaction that if not controlled will lead to global war. The future is not defined.

Many hoped that a new administration in Washington would understand that a new era of mutual prosperity and cooperation is or was possible, but it seems that rather than the hard work of reform and renewal and mutual cooperation it appears easier to continue the corruption and embrace a policy of brute force. A policy that looks unsustainable and will result in a further decline in the prosperity of the country. 

 

Day 48, So far, the blockade that's not.

PEACE DEAL UNLIKELY,  6 DAYS TO END OF CEASEFIRE

NO EASY WAY OUT OF THIS CONFLICT

So far it seems no ships have been stopped by U.S. forces exiting the Hormuz strait, maybe that will change after the ceasefire expires next Wednesday. Iran has already threatened to entice the Houthis to close the Red sea if the blockade really goes into effect. That would result in the combined cutting of 33% of the world's oil supply. Trump has been successful at keeping oil futures prices flat by continually claiming that peace is at hand, not really true.  

Iran claims that their whole negotiating team believes that they were going to be attacked, while in the air returning from Pakistan. It seems there were threats made that if they did not submit to the U.S. terms they would not get home. The whole team disembarked near the border and returned by train and bus. They will not go to Pakistan again, though they were happy with the Pakistan security while in Pakistan.

There is more evidence that the Pilot rescue was the result of a covert mission to grab the nuclear material that went wrong. With the loss of 4 planes and 4 helicopters, can we believe that there were no casualties. Iran has not mentioned the whole affair at all, very interesting.

Next Wednesday will be decision day, to either escalate by attempting to take control of the Hormuz strait or Kharg Island or to move to a temporary period of economic measures to pressure the Iranian economy. The big question is how to back down temporarily without Iran collecting tolls in the strait. 

If the goal is to take control of Iran's oil, this conflict will continue for years if necessary or until the U.S. can no longer maintain the forces and distractions materially and in the global economy. 

Dramatic drop in support for Israel, CNN poll.

 DROP IN EVERY SECTOR OF U.S. POPULATION

ANTI-SEMITISM OR ANTI-ISRAEL POLICY

CNN recently released a series of polls on the U.S. electorate. Polls concerning the support for Israel indicate a historic negative shift from 2022 to 2026.

1. Young Republicans under 50,   2022 +28    2026  -16  = 44% drop

2. Mod. Liberal Republicans                  +26             -  9  =  35% drop

3. Men under 50                                      - 3              - 47  =  50% drop

4. Mod-  Conservative Dems                  +3               -55  =  58% drop

5. All Adults                                            +13             -23  =  36% drop

6.                                   Israel  + 28          Palestinians  +11%

While we may hear that any criticism of Israel's policies are labeled as Anti-Semitism, these polls indicate that support for the state of Israel's policies has experienced a dramatic shift. 

I would expect that after Israel's massacre of over 300 Lebanese civilians in an attempt to coerce the Lebanese government to engage in a civil war with Hezbollah have further damaged their cause.  

The policy of assassinations of the leadership of their opponents even during negotiations, has further damaged Israel's support. While the above polls focus on the U.S. electorate, probably the strongest supporters globally of Israel, what is the support in the rest of the world? 

After the attack on Israel in 2023, they had the sympathy of the world on their side, but due to policies of Netanyahu and his ability to gain support for his policies in Israel and in the U.S. government, Israel has squandered that opportunity for meaningful advancement and created a situation that may be irreparable. This decline in support cannot be improved by narrative and propaganda, but only by real change of direction by Israeli policies. 

Another part of the poll indicted a 363% rise in google searches for Aipac, Israel's lobby. A search of  "Track Aipac" indicates that only single digits of Senators Representatives and Presidential candidates does not take money from this lobby. Many in the many millions of dollars.

Many may dismiss these polls and even the fact that it is published as an attack on Israel or anti-Semitism, that tactic and narrative will no longer fly and only real reform of Israel's policies will improve public support. Israel is the country most dependent on public support in the world, whether it acknowledges or not. 

Day 46, Moving the world away from the U.S.

 COLLATERAL DAMAGE INTENSIFIES

TRANSITION TO ECONOMIC PRESSURES

Yesterday, the new U.S. strategy of blockading oil exports by Iran began. Of course, Iran's position is, if they can't export, neither will anyone in the Gulf. We will see who cries uncle first, but the consequences of this approach are multiplying by the day.

The next shoe to drop may be the closing of the Red Sea, that would then eliminate 32 % of the world's oil with the closing of both choke points.

South Korea is now in a verbal bout with Israel, accusing Israel of war crimes and other illegal and humanitarian crimes. Japan is also not happy with this situation. We can guess the same applies to all of southeast Asia.

It must be made clear the U.S. Navy is not anywhere near the strait of Hormuz, but 600 miles out in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. They plan on stopping all ships exiting the Gulf, will they detain Chinese, Indian, South Korean and Japanese ships? This is in effect an act of war, we will have to wait to see if anyone will put this to the test. 

If this blockade would last long enough, I doubt if it will, to put the Chinese economy in trouble, the risk of war with China will increase dramatically. The U.S. fleet is now 7000 miles from the U.S. and many of its bases are over 1000 miles. Challenging the submarine fleets of China and Russia would inevitably result in serious U.S. losses, losses that could not be easily replaced. 

China and Russia could combine their engineering and construction capacity to accelerate pipelines from Russia to China and India supplying oil to all the U.S. allies, that would quickly become former allies. 

Again, the problem with a solution is Israel wants Iran destroyed, made into a unstable chaotic and desolate nation, like Libya and Syria. It is suspected that Trump has bought into the decades old neocon policy of obtaining control of the world's oil assets as a way of maintaining Dollar reserve status and global political hegemony.  I question if a hollowed out U.S. financialized economy can support that policy, but they may be willing to take down the world economy in a last ditch attempt. That leaves a sustained economic and slow picking away at Iran similar to the 15 years it took to overturn Syria, but they need to speed that process way up.

The narrative of Israel against Turkey is heating up dramatically, they are indeed setting the stage for war with Turkey, something that again would require U.S. assistance. Turkey, a NATO member, has a formidable military and its ground troops could not be matched by Israel.

Looking down from 100,000 feet in an objective way, indicates that Israel is entering a time that its existence is increasingly in doubt. Israel has lost its global support, it is engaging in wars in an unsustainable way.  Netanyahu's trial is again put off for 2 more months, must Israel stay at war to protect Netanyahu? Without a political change of direction, its future looks very dim. 

Day 45, Blockade the strait? More desperation.

 FAKE NEGOTIATIONS END QUICKLY

CAN U.S. AFFORD ESCALATION?

As we enter the 7th week of this Iranian, Israeli and U.S. war, we are now offered another desperate attempt to bring down Iran, a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, something that last week was a priority to open. The latest talks at least neutralized Trump's ultimatums and threats to end the Iranian civilisation, a dramatic dog and pony show that Iran agreed to participate in, fully knowing that it was all about Trump saving face. One can imagine that Iran felt it worth the effort to portray themselves as the responsible actors and the U.S. as floundering around and without any solutions. 

Closing the strait will bring about another outcry from the world's oil importing countries, who probably are willing to pay Iran the fee for an open strait, will they now have to pay the U.S. to end the blockade? We can expect that this latest strategy will end quickly, if it even happens at all.

Russia and China will not easily allow Iran to be overthrown, as its position is essential for their long term economic stability.

The Gulf countries that hitched their wagon to the U.S. and accommodated Israel in an effort to stabilize the region, must now be in a dilemma as to how to preserve their economic future. One must expect that they will soon realize that their oil assets are also going to be a target of their devious partners. Will they soon look to Iran or China as a new partner? Can they find a way for an amicable divorce from their present partners? Do their populations hold the same view as the leadership?

Listening to Netanyahu recently giving a speech to the domestic audience, he portrayed Israel as number 1 in cyber technology, this may be true. He went on to proclaim that Israel was going to be a world power, a delusion at best. Without its partnership with the U.S. it would most likely, not even be a regional power. It has also hitched its wagon to the U.S. and has grown in influence, due to this arrangement, an arrangement that has contributed to the U.S. amassing huge debt and a dropping global public opinion for both.  While Israel has a formidable air force, due to U.S. weapons, and a substantial defense for the same reason, their ground operation has yet to end Hamas and Hezbollah is inflicting serious damage to them in Lebanon. They resort to more genocidal attacks on civilians in their frustration.

The increase in inflammatory rhetoric with Turkey, indicates they are in the process of setting the stage for war with Turkey, a NATO member. They are causing unrest in Cyprus, part of which is under control of Turkey. Some in Israel believe they are as big threat to Israel as Iran.

The Israeli army is stretched to the breaking point and one would expect that, if there would not be a ban on Israli's exiting the country, a new exodus would be underway. I expect the population has decreased in the last 3 years.

No matter how advanced ones technology, a population of 8 million can never be a world power. An expansion of territory into Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Egypt will not cause a mass increase in Jewish immigrants into the nation. 

While the supply of precision guided ordnance and interceptors are a limiting factor in this war, the risk of a economic crisis is rising as oil prices begin a chain reaction of losses, defaults and derivative implosions that may be more effective in limiting the ability for war. Those dependent on others will be the most vulnerable.

Day 42, Ceasefire, Dramatic ploy to escape ultimatums?

 ARE TALKS TODAY JUST SHOWMANSHIP?

U.S. CONTINUES TO LOSE CREDIBILITY

One can not help but speculate that this whole ceasefire and agreeing to negotiate Iran's 10 point plan is nothing more than a dramatic ploy to escape the consequences of Trump's series of ultimatums that Iran essentially ignored. In fact, when Trump issued his most dramatic ultimatum of the "End of Civilization" Iran ended any communications with Pakistan. They just prepared for the worst, which would have escalated into an economic disaster for the world. Then came the last minute acceptance of Iran's proposal, which is now claimed to not be the terms that they agreed to. Today, we can expect that talks will go nowhere and hostilities will resume at any time or when a plan B or C is organized.

Last weekend's dramatic rescue of the missing Colonel now appears to be much more, with all the hardware and other unexplained details many now believe this was an attempt for a covert mission on the nuclear material in Isfahan, that was aborted with the shooting down of the F15. This would explain the frustration coming out of the white house. 

Israel's attacks in Lebanon, which Pakistan and others admit where part of the ceasefire, just enhances the appearance that Israel is not under the control of the U.S. Some believe it is the reverse that the U.S. is under the control of Israel, but this may again just make it possible to blame Israel when things go bad.

While everyone is focused on the hostilities between the U.S., Iran and Israel, it does not address the root of all this continuing violence in the region. Without a resolution of what will become of the residents of Palestine, this conflict will never end. Israel's plan to just either force them out or kill them is not a realistic option. At present, it is not likely that this will end without an intervention by the major powers both regional and global. 

Leaders of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the U.S., Russia and China should gather and negotiate a plan that may need to change borders significantly, compensate any who are displaced on by both sides and possibly build a wall between them. A limit on arms to both sides and intervention by this coalition to enforce peaceful compliance.  The state of Israel was created by international decision, now maybe it is time to fix the problem that they created.

Day 41, Ceasefire on life support.

ISRAEL KILLS 254 CIVILIANS IN BEIRUT

UAE AND KUWAIT ATTACK IRAN

The ceasefire has lasted less than one day, while it appears Iran and the U.S. attempted to honor the commitment, other actors in the region believed it was a time for military advantage. The UAE and Kuwait attacked an island in Iranian territory and Iran responded in kind. Israel launched a new campaign called, "Eternal Darkness",  by bombing apartment buildings in Beirut killing 254 and injuring 1165 civilians. This prompted Iran to again close traffic through the Hormuz strait.

The New York times has released an article concerning the meeting in the White House where Netanyahu did a video presentation on the benefits of going to war with Iran. The U.S. CIA director labeled the plan farcical and Marco Rubio labeled it as Bull shit. It was opposed by J.D.Vance and the military. It appears someone on the inside thought it important to leak this meeting, supposed to have happened on Feb., 11, 2026. 

While it seems there is some confusion about the 10 point plan that both Iran and Trump consider as a basis for negotiation. Below is what it supposedly contains.

1. Non-aggression treaty for the future.

2. Iran will retain control of Strait.

3. Iran can enrich for commercial purposes.

4. Lifting of Primary sanctions.

5. Lifting of secondary sanctions.

6. Termination of UN security council resolutions condemning Iran.

7. Termination of IAEA resolutions against Iran.

8. Payment of compensation to Iran.

9. Withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region.

10. Cessation of war on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

Of course it is a framework for negotiations and a permanent treaty would be insured by other actors. Much of this could have been negotiated without war.

While many will find it objectionable, there will not be peace in the region without 

sincere efforts to deal with the Palestinian issue, Over 72,000 have died in Gaza and over 1000 in the west bank as violence against the unarmed residents of those areas continues. It is time that the major countries of the world get together and come up with a resolution of this matter and enforce its implementation. Obviously it is clear that those parties will never come to a resolution, short of complete annihilation of their opponents. It is time for a comprehensive peace agreement for the region and this may be the optimine time.

 

Day 40, Ceasefire, Prepare for phase 3.

 PAUSE IN HOSTILITIES IS NOT PEACE

LITTLE CHANCE WAR IS OVER

Last night a ceasefire was announced, it seems that Iran and U.S. and even Israel agreed to stop hostilities in Iran and the gulf. This is supposed to last for 2 weeks and includes free passage through the strait of Hormuz. Free, means free flow but may not mean without tolls.

One must assume that Iran understands that every ceasefire with Israel in history has not lasted very long, over 700 Palestinians have died since the last ceasefire in Gaza. Ceasefires with the U.S. are likely not that permanent as illustrated by Minx one and two with Russia that were just pauses to allow Ukraine to rearm. We can only assume that this ceasefire was about desperation of high gas prices with political implications and Israel needing a break and a restocking of missile defenses.

What Iran's strategy is will remain to be seen. Maybe they can restock and reorganize while the U.S. and Israel do the same. It is unlikely that the U.S. and Israel will allow Iran to remain standing in the long run, unless they are physically unable to destroy them. This ceasefire is just buying time to come up with a new plan, even possibly amassing a large ground force, which could take several months. 

China, the real object of this war, understands this as does Russia, we can only assume they have their own cards to play during this ceasefire. 

The big elephant that no one is talking about is the massive U.S. debt, massive deficits for the foreseeable future, the proposed cutting of social programs to enhance the military budget by another 50%, the growing resistance of buyers of U.S. debt and then of course domestic political opposition to endless war. Sooner or later the domestic political and economic situation will eventually be the only restraint on endless foreign wars.

Day 39, Goal may be control of Iran's oil.

 NO PEACE, ALL ABOUT OIL

DESTRUCTION OF GULF, NOT A PROBLEM

We hear all the attempts to describe the strategy in this continuing war and they are all secondary to the real goal, control of Iran's oil. Yes, it would be nice if Iran would just surrender and hand over the control of the oil, similar to what happened to Venezuela, but if it become necessary to destroy Iran and the gulf countries, that will only open up more opportunities. It has to be considered, that this is the plan all along. 

In fact, it is becoming obvious that the second Trump administration has been focused on retaining U.S. hegemony by controlling the global oil resources. We saw the set up begin by the increase in military spending, the withdrawal of material support from Ukraine, that was needed for the middle east campaign. The capture of Venezuelan oil and then the build up for the war on Iran. So far, internal revolution aided by the CIA and Mossad has not worked, destruction to bring about surrender has not worked, so it will most likely be total destruction of the ability for Iran to function. This will support Israel's goal and then allow the U.S. to take control of Iranian oil as a first step to the control of all Gulf oil.

The colleterial damage to the Gulf countries will make taking control of that oil much more easy and the destruction can be blamed on Iran. 

One must suspect that Trump understands that his domestic agenda is coming to an end, he is now free to focus on satisfying the Neo-colonialists and Neocons in attempting to diminish BRICS and hinder the economic prosperity of China and other Asian countries. Opposition at home can rant and rave, but the war will go on. Israel will be on board as it expands into Lebanon, the west bank and Syria.

Of course, that all depends on all this working out, eventually it will create a global economic crisis and can Israel endure the attacks from Iran. While U.S. prosperity will decline, it may still be better off than the rest of the world, making the U.S. still the best performing, as compared to the rest. Even the destruction of Israel will be just so much collateral damage in exchange for the ability to control global oil supplies and hence retain the dominate U.S. position in the world.

Day 38, Iranian air defenses alive and well?

 DANGEROUS ESCALATION IMMINENT

GLOBAL DEPRESSION MAY BE RESULT

While we have been told that the U.S. enjoys air supremacy over Iran, this weekend indicated that there are likely functional air defenses in Iran.  Most analysts have been indicating that the massive damage inflicted on Iran has been by the use of tomahawk missiles fired by ships and air to ground cruise missiles and guided bombs deployed outside of Iranian air space. Navy ships are near 1000 miles from Iranian airspace and even helicopters used in the rescue this weekend needed to be refueled in the air. 

In now appears that Iran has refrained in using their air defenses against those cruise missiles during previous attacks.  The reason being that once those air defenses are turned on they can immediately be targeted by other cruise missiles. It is indicated that Iran has chosen to absorb all that damage without response, saving their air defenses for the anticipated ground operations. 

Friday, a F15 and a A10 plane were shot down over Iran, they were very likely part of a process of preparing for ground operations, were they were forced to fly at low altitude surveying the topography. Eventually both pilots were rescued, but it brought about the loss of a C130 refueling plane and 2 helicopteres and the damage to 2 other helicopters. This was in a region devoid of actual Iranian military, but had civilian militia groups. This incident may very well now requires a rethinking of the plan for ground operations, which will require close air support from A10's and helicopters.

Last night we heard a vulgar statement from the president that will not have any serious impact on Iran, but indicates desperation concerning the next phase of this war.

The president has issued ultimatums of 48 hours, 5 days, 10 days and now the deadline is tomorrow to open the strait of Hormuz. The strait is open, if the passage is approved by Iran. This weekend, ships from France and Japan have passed and others even though the traffic has only been around 20 ships per day. 

The president has openly threatened to bomb civilian infrastructure of bridges, energy etc., considered a war crime. Iran has threatened to respond by doing likewise in the gulf region. An attack on the energy producing infrastructure of the gulf will result in a likely global depression within weeks. 

Iran, both the leadership and the population, understand that their sovereignty and survival as a nation is at risk, they are very unlikely to surrender to the U.S. and Israel. To defeat them may take a global economic depression, starvation in some parts of the world and years rather than months.

Israel is learning in Lebanon what Russia and Ukraine have learned very well, that due to FPV drones and shoulder fired weapons, close air support and tanks are becoming less effective. It has been reported that Israel has lost near 100 tanks in Lebanon. Ukraine does not have any air force to talk about and Russia with a large air force still does not fly over Ukrainian airspace.

Aircraft carriers which need to stay 1000 miles from their objective are not as effective as they used to be. The military world is changing by the day, and learning about it it is very costly.

One has to wonder if the military leadership is not telling this administration what it would like to hear, resulting in numerous firings and resignations. Maybe the president should have listened to these voices rather than Netanyahu and Mossad before he pulled the trigger on this disaster.

Day 35, U.S, targets civilian infrastructure.

 BRIDGES, VACCINE LAB, ELECTRIC 

IRAN STRIKES AMAZON AND ORACLE DATA CENTERS

Yesterday the U.S. began its program of destroying Iranian infrastructure, bridges, a Vaccine manufacturing plant, a pharmaceutical manufacturing plant and electric generation. Iran retaliated by attacking U.S. technology centers of Amazon and Oracle. It can be expected that they will soon attack Gulf countries oil and gas production facilities and desalination plants. It is likely that in the next few weeks the region will be in effect, disabled.  

While Trump predicts the war will go on for 2 or 3 weeks, that may be a very difficult prediciation. It is assuming that when the U.S. decides to stop, Iran will also stop. Can the U.S. go home if Iran continues to attack Israel and the gulf countries? We hear the bragging and europhia of a policy of death and destruction from the administration, but the bleeding is continuing, no only in Iran but for the entire region and the United States, who does not have the manufacturing ability to quickly replace what has gone up in smoke. It can be expected that a lot more will go up in smoke in the next few weeks.

The administration is now calling for a defense budget of $1.5 trillion and possible cuts to social programs to help pay for it. It is a suicide pact for the republican party. 

One can expect this war is going to hasten the move to an alternative global economic system and it may soon evolve into a alternative military alliance due to the narrative of violence coming out of Washington. International law observers have stated that if the present leadership of Trump, Hegseth, along with Lindsey Graham would be held to the same standards of the Nuremberg trials, they would be convicted by their own rhetoric and actions. One must wonder if a seperate international body will emerge with Washington and Israel on one side and the rest of the world on the other.

While this conflict is still ongoing, there are reports of supplies being accumulated in Greece and Cypress for a possible confrontation with Turkey. The new Iran according to Israeli politicians, who now consider Turkey a threat to their security.

It is very likely that hostilities in the region will continue into the fall and possibly even longer. It is very likely to remake the world into a very different place and not for the better.

Day 34, It makes sense, Gulf destruction.

 ESCALATION AND DESTRUCTION OF GULF COUNTRIES 

TRUMP ADOPTS ISRAEL'S GOALS

Many anticipated that Trump was about to declare victory and end the Iran war. While declaring victory and repeating the litany of talking points about the justification for this war, no end is in sight. He engaged in the endless demonization of everything Iran, most either fabrications or exaggerations. He finally got to the point that was relevant, the U.S. will escalate the attacks in an effort to make Iran as desolate and uninhabitable as possible and then hope to focus on some other pressing issues in the next few weeks. 

We can assume that in the next few weeks the U.S. is going to attempt to destroy the energy, water and other infrastructure of Iran and Iran will respond by destroying the same in the Gulf region. This is predictable, not a maybe, unless the gulf countries finally understand that they are also an indirect target of U.S. destruction. Are they going to stand by, and allow this to happen? or decide that their own survival is more important than a 40 year dream of Netanyahu and the vision of  U.S. colonialism and world domination. 

Without desalination plants the gulf countries will need to depopulate within weeks, of course, the U.S. could then step in and take control of the existing infrastructure, the U.S. could be the saviour and Iran the villain. Of course, this is all speculation, but we will see what happens, either Trump is a maniac or an evil genius.

In the meantime the war will go on, oil prices have surged overnight and the effects on the world economy are increasing by the day. 

Israel is now fighting a 4 front war, they are taking significant loses of men and equipment in Lebanon, Iraqi militias are upping their attacks, the Houthis are slowly increasing their missile attacks and it is being reported that Iranian missiles are having increasing success evading defenses. It is still Israel that will probably be the first to seek an end, but can that be done, will be the question.

We can expect Israel will then threaten a nuclear option, as in the past, but it seems this conflict is no longer under the control of anyone.

Day 33, NATO says no to war.

 IRAN DID NOT ATTACK UNITED STATES

MULTIPLE INTERNATIONAL LAW VIOLATIONS 

In the last few days NATO members France, Italy and Spain have not only refused the use of their air bases but also their airspace for any transportation concerning the Iran war. While there are complaints from Trump, Rubio and promises of retaliation from Israel, these nations find a conflict in supporting this war. One, this war does not fall into the legal framework for NATO, no NATO member has been attacked and the attack on Iran is considered an unlawful war of aggression by international law. While the United States has openly declared that they are no longer adhering to international law, the EU nations are not yet willing to go there.

Besides the attack itself, the targeting of schools, hospitals and vital civilian infrastructure is also in opposition to international law.

Pete Hegseth, whose disgusting rhetoric in advocating death and destruction, is now being labeled the Secretary of War crimes.

Poland has refused to give up its patriot missiles to be shipped to Israel.

The European nations have been under economic assault since the Ukraine/Russian conflict due to limited energy, due to their refusal to buy Russian energy. This is all complicated by this war, a war of choice by the United States and Israel.

By not cooperating in this war effort, they will most likely be able to arrange the passage of energy products through the strait of Hormuz. 

Sunni Muslim Chechnya has announced that it is ready to give military assistance to Iran. While a small nation, it does have a sophisticated battle hardened military. This announcement may have implications with other Sunni Muslims who may very well be influenced by a growing empathy for Iran from the Muslim world.

While many believe this war will damage China and southeast Asia, it may be temporary, as China and Russia are in the process of building pipelines to move energy to Asia and the Arctic route will be open for tanker traffic. This energy may in time become available to Japan, Australia and South Korea.

Trump has voiced his opinion that he may leave this war with the strait closed, but the strait is not closed, it is controlled by Iran, while few ships are moving, it is increasing, as deals are made with those willing to accept this control.

Trump cannot end this war until both Israel and Iran are willing to end this war. It is unlikely that will happen in the near future.