Day 48, So far, the blockade that's not.

PEACE DEAL UNLIKELY,  6 DAYS TO END OF CEASEFIRE

NO EASY WAY OUT OF THIS CONFLICT

So far it seems no ships have been stopped by U.S. forces exiting the Hormuz strait, maybe that will change after the ceasefire expires next Wednesday. Iran has already threatened to entice the Houthis to close the Red sea if the blockade really goes into effect. That would result in the combined cutting of 33% of the world's oil supply. Trump has been successful at keeping oil futures prices flat by continually claiming that peace is at hand, not really true.  

Iran claims that their whole negotiating team believes that they were going to be attacked, while in the air returning from Pakistan. It seems there were threats made that if they did not submit to the U.S. terms they would not get home. The whole team disembarked near the border and returned by train and bus. They will not go to Pakistan again, though they were happy with the Pakistan security while in Pakistan.

There is more evidence that the Pilot rescue was the result of a covert mission to grab the nuclear material that went wrong. With the loss of 4 planes and 4 helicopters, can we believe that there were no casualties. Iran has not mentioned the whole affair at all, very interesting.

Next Wednesday will be decision day, to either escalate by attempting to take control of the Hormuz strait or Kharg Island or to move to a temporary period of economic measures to pressure the Iranian economy. The big question is how to back down temporarily without Iran collecting tolls in the strait. 

If the goal is to take control of Iran's oil, this conflict will continue for years if necessary or until the U.S. can no longer maintain the forces and distractions materially and in the global economy.