Day 59, Blockade continues, Iran controls exit.

   GLOBAL ECONOMY CANNOT SUSTAIN PRESENT SITUATION

WILL IRAN OR GLOBAL ECONOMY BLINK FIRST?

While the war is still on pause, the strategy, at least for now, seems to be an attempt to strangle the Iranian economy, especially its oil revenues. It is also strangling the oil revenues of the other oil producing countries in the region, who have debts and also a complete loss of their travel destination revenue. It is doubtful that this can continue much longer or that the oil prices can be restrained by talk of imminent negotiations. It seems no negotiations are really in the immediate future.

The U.S. does not actually have ships in the strait of Hormuz, but are stationed at the entrance to the Arabian sea near the Pakistani border. At this point the sea is over 350 miles wide and spreads to over 1500 miles. The U.S. has 9 destroyers and 3 other ships capable of policing this area. Ships that stay close to the Pakistani and Indian border in territorial waters are not being stopped by the U.S.. Iran is still allowing limited traffic out of the strait at its discretion.

While those 12 ships can limit the flow of traffic, it may be very difficult to cut off traffic completely. Once ships get past the barricade line the sea widens dramatically and decisions have to be made as to which ships to pursue and if ships are seized they will need to be escorted by at least one ship to a place of holding. This soon gets to be a difficult job at best.

Israel has stated that they are ready to resume hostilities, but it seems at least for now, Trump is reluctant to further risk the effects of renewed fighting. This situation can not go on indefinitely and it is unlikely a negotiated peace that is acceptable to all is possible. A real dilemma that foresees no good result.