Trump likes to play good cop, bad cop.

 TRUMP IS ALL IN ON WAR WITH IRAN

ACCESS TO IRAN OIL DEPENDS ON WINNING

We continually hear that Trump wants a negotiated end to the Iran conflict, this would be true, if Iran would surrender and hand over control of its oil resources. Of course, that would be the easy way, but since that is unlikely, any narrative about Trump seeking every way to avoid war and Bibi Netanyahu pushing for war is just so much theater. They are both all in on resuming this war when it is the deemed appropriate.

The same good cop and bad cop is being played out concerning Ukraine, there is no estrangement with the EU NATO members concerning the Ukraine conflict. When, and if, the oil of the Persian gulf is fully under control of the U.S., the pressure will resume by the U.S. on Russia. 

The goal is to control the world's energy supplies and demand submission and enforce the use of the U.S. dollar in world trade. It is a desperate gamble to maintain the US, and western control of world affairs. While its financial power is waning it is increasingly dependent on military power. The EU countries, in the same boat, are talking about building up their militaries to go to war with Russia by 2030, another desperate gamble.

The West has plans to dramatically increase military spending, even at the expense of domestic infrastructure and other domestic spending. Increasing debt in economies already experiencing massive, unsustainable debt, huge deficits, and a currency declining in buying power by the day. Engaging in wars that cause  the rise in inflation in food and energy to their citizens, all in the hope of being the dominant power in the world, without the sound bases at home for real power. It all appears to be an all or nothing gamble rather than a planned strategy to restore real wealth and political power by example.

Supporting a declining currency by force, rather than sound economic policy is a fools game.  As for the citizens, there will not be any winning, no matter the outcome, they will all pay for the gamble with declining living standards as the best outcome, but the worse outcome will be much more severe.

Sanctions and threats losing effectiveness.

 U.S. POLICY HAS UNITED ITS ADVERSARIES

RESULTS OFTEN COUNTER PRODUCTIVE

The United States now has sanctioned most of Asia with either primary or secondary sanctions. India has been a target, a country that sought neutrality from the global political conflicts, has refused to give up its nation's well being by honoring those sanctions. Sanctions that attempted to cut off Russia's sales of energy to India and raise the cost to India. China has recently forbade its refineries from obeying U.S. sanctions against Iranian and Russian oil. 

While India and China are the biggest countries not obeying sanctions and often costing them with trade with the U.S., they perceive that their countries best interest is to not get involved in these sanction schemes. The one principle for inclusion in the BRICS economic union is not engaging in sanctions on member countries. This represents over 50 % of global trade. 

While countries like Iran, Cuba and Venezuela have been under sanctions for over 50 years the Ukraine war and the attempts to isolate Russia led to sanctions exploding to all over the globe. After 4 years, Russia is still selling oil, even to the EU and Ukraine, while the diminished supply has devastated the economies of Europe. The incentives to buy oil from Russia has increased for India and China and has actually strengthened their relations in other ways.

Sanctions, while damaging those nations it targets, has become increasingly less effective, because nations resist damaging their own economies by enforcing sanctions. 

When santions become ineffective the next step is military action, enforcing embargo's,  capturing ships at sea or damaging nations oil infrastructure, all acts of war. Europe and Russia are now on the brink of war and we can expect either a cessation of these actions or war is inevitable.

While the U.S. has, so far, suffered little by imposing sanctions, we can expect that there are plenty of avenues for even nonmilitary retaliations. One that has been evident in the last few days is the large increase in yields of U.S. debt. This could be by BRICS nations no longer buying U.S. debt plus Gulf countries in need of cash to compensate for their lost oil revenues, caused by the Iran war. The yield on the 10 year is now 4.67% and on the 30 year 5.19% . This will dramatically increase the cost of servicing this debt and will increase the deficit of the U.S. budget. This may only be the first shot in retaliation in the economic warfare that has been underway for years.

Escalation before any peace seems inevitable.

 ESCALATION BOTH IN IRAN AND UKRAINE

GLOBAL ECONOMY GOING DOWN

Today it looks like escalation of the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine is on the menu. While Iran is taking up most of the news the more dangerous escalation is underway in the Ukraine conflict. Ukrainian drones, supplied by NATO countries, are increasingly targeting Russia and particularly Moscow. There are now also drones being launched by some Baltic countries into Russia and Lithuania is encouraging NATO to attack Kaliningrad the Russian territory in the Baltic. 

Pressure is building inside Russia to send a clear signal by some sort of retaliation to NATO, if the Baltic countries continue on their present path they may be the first to experience this message and it will probably be significant. This will bring about a dilemma in NATO, as they will then need to decide if they want to go to war with Russia for real, with the consequences.

There is no hope of any settlement in the Iran war. The U.S. demands essentially translate to disarmament of Iran which would leave them open to Israeli attacks and the inevitable end of their sovereignty. More attacks on Iran will very likely damage the global oil supply for possibly years, as Iran does have the capability to attack the oil infrastructure of the entire region. This would bring about a global economic crisis.

A negotiated settlement capable of ending this will signify a loss by the U.S., while possibly preserving the global economy, it would damage the political power of the U.S.. 

Wile the EU is searching for a possible negotiator to deal with Russia, a difficult undertaking, as it seems there is a dearth of real diplomats available. 

The same goes for the U.S., which seems beholding to numerous factions, all favoring more war, there are no real diplomatic negotiators on the horizon. The present U.S. negotiators have a poor record and now little respect or credibility with their counterparts both in Iran and Russia.

Trump, Xi, meeting, Polite but no substance.

 U.S. ALREADY AT WAR WITH CHINA

U.S. DESIRES DOMINATION RATHER THAN COEXISTENCE

Last week we watched the much anticipated Trump trip to China. As far as we know it was Trump who requested the meeting. Long gone are the heady days of the Trump 1st term when there was much hope of a respectful and mutual cooperation with China. Whether as Trump has indicated, he blamed China for covid, when in fact the covid research in Wuhan was financed by the U.S. government or Trump has bought into the narrative that China's goal is to rule the world, there is little left for serious discussion. The biggest positive result is that there is still any discussion at all.

It is not clear what the goal really was, was the bringing along the big Tech guys a proposed carrot for China and the blockade of the strait of Hormuz a stick, one can only guess. A real meeting with a major power requires months of pre negotiations on an agenda, this seemed to be little more that photo-op that something was going on.

XI made it clear that he opposed increased arms sales to Taiwan, again it seems the hope is to lure China into some sort of military confrontation in Taiwan, much like Ukraine. While Taiwan is big issue with China, Taiwan already does the majority of their business with China and China understands that time is on their side with negotiations with Taiwan. Short of a U.S. backed declaration of Independence by Taiwan, there is unlikely any military action by China. How long can the U.S. financially maintain its enormous cost of bases and military assistance in the Pacific?

Trump claims that XI wants the strait of Hormuz to be open, it is open to Chinese ships by Iran, but blocked by the U.S.

Trump also claims that XI  does not support fees by Iran, but it was not clear if they are willing to pay if necessary.

It is also claimed that China will not sell arms to Iran, but will they give them away for free or trade them for oil? China has great financial and political interest in Iran remaining a sovereign nation. 

I don't recall any promises from Trump.

The reality is that most of the world understands that the U.S. is in a process of attempting to control the world by gaining control of the oil resources around the world. This was stated clearly by Sergei Lavrov of Russia this weekend. Putin is on his way to China this week, we can expect they will be having serious discussion about just that. Time would have been better spent possibly by XI taking Trump on a tour of their Shipyards and ultra modern manufacturing plants, to better acquaint Trump to the reality of what he hopes to confront.

XI made it clear that the choice is between, partnership, coexistence and mutual prosperity or confrontation, so far, the U.S. policy is confrontation. This is expressed through political and government leaders continual talk of containment, backed up by attempts to sow discord in the Belt and Road and BRICS countries and the massive build up of forces in the Pacific.  

China, so far, has responded to tariff's and attempts at denying resources by adjusting and developing alternatives. It is suspected that they can maneuver around these efforts and that financial and political time is on their side. Confrontation has an erroneous cost. 

Russian attrition strategy coming to an end?

 PREPARES TO STRIKE UKRAINE SUPPLIERS 

INTERNAL PRESSURE FORCING CHANGE IN STRATEGY

It is now becoming evident that the rumors concerning a change of strategy by Russia in the Ukraine conflict is underway. Yesterday, Ukraine was hit by over 1600 aerial attacks that stretched all across the country, hitting military and logistics targets. 

The pressure to bring this conflict to a close has been going on for years, It was in full display when former head of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin marched on Moscow in June  2023 to force a change to a more intense effort. With the recent coordinated attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, more intense threats of war by NATO members and even drone attacks originating from some NATO member territory, it does appear that this change of strategy is now underway. The Latvian government is collapsing as a result of its allowing Ukrainian drones to target Russia from its soil.

While an increase in the intensity of the attacks on Ukraine seems to be underway,  that is not all, it is also being voiced by many in position of influence inside the government that it can be expected that those NATO countries that are supplying long range missiles to strike Russia will be soon targeted with conventional weapons if they do not cease. It is expected that their military manufacturing will be the target. The proposals also are considering the use of limited nuclear weapons if conventional weapons do not bring about an end to the supplies of long range missiles to Ukraine.

In recent months some NATO members have escalated both their support and their rhetoric, proposing attacking and blocking Russian oil shipments and threats to block their northern nports, all declarations of war. It seems we are about to see if these NATO members are really ready for war with Russia.

Gabbard confirms U.S. funded 120 biolabs.

 PROMISES TO RELEASE LOCATIONS

40 BIOLABS LOCATED IN UKRAINE

Tulsi Gabbard has confirmed that there is an ongoing investigation into the U.S. funding of over 120 biolabs in other countries, including over $1 billion to the Wuhan lab on Covid gain of function research. Most of these labs did research in some sort of gain of function with numerous deadly diseases.

She has also admitted to possibly 40 labs in Ukraine that was originally labeled by the western press as Russian disinformation.

It seems the funding was provided by National Institute of Health and the Department of Defense.

There are indications that new labs have been set up in Africa.

Originally the U.S. denied that they funded any such research, but more evidence has been gathered to support that they did support such research.

The big question has always been, WHY, what is the purpose, and what use is planned for the results of this research. 

Does your federal representative represent you?

 I FEAR THEY ALL REPRESENT WASHINGTON

REFORMS NEED TO BE DEMANDED BY CITIZENS

With primaries coming up in the next few weeks and midterm elections coming in 6 months, many question if there will ever be any difference, no matter who is elected.  We hear all the campaign slogans, the diatribe against their opponent, but in reality very little changes. The biggest reason that little changes is that once elected, these representatives spend most of their time in Washington, only coming home for occasion fundraisers or photo ops. It is almost inevitable that they are soon overwhelmed by the culture of Washington, no matter their good intentions, when first running for office.

Their party and their Washington donors have much more power over them than any power in their district. That power translates into campaign money, and media image building. If there is no reform concerning our representatives there will not be any change and they will in effect just be representatives of Washington to you, rather than the other way around.

Making changes will require a steadfast demand for simple changes by you, the voters. Voters need to focus more on the overall well being of the country rather than some hope of benefits or financial incentives of bringing home the bacon. After decades of this incentive, the bacon is getting slimmer, and the debt and loss of representation is getting greater.  

Just a few simple demand by voters would be a start.

1. Limit campaign donations to only money from citizens of their district. Eliminate money from outside the district, even from  national parties. Do not vote for any representative who accepts money from foreign lobbies of any kind. We should also demand daily disclosure of  contributions on their website. 

Personally I have been a super voter for near 50 years, I fully expect that I may no longer be able to find a candidate to vote for, under these conditions, we have to start somewhere.

2. Representatives must maintain an office in their district that they occupy, not in Washington. No more wining and dining with special interests 300 days a year and only coming home for the campaign season. They can conduct business right from their office and I suspect they could even do their voting from this office. It would remove a lot of the power of parties and lobbyists. They need to represent the people of their district, that is what this job is supposed to be about. If they need to depend on the support in all ways from the citizens, they will better represent those citizens.

While there are most likely many more reforms needed, this would be a major start to really restoring our system of government as it was intended.

 

Day 74, No change in Iran non negotiations.

 NO CHANGE IN POSITIONS SINCE BEGINNING OF WAR

BEST DEAL WAS REACHED IN GENEVA

Sending messages back and forth with the same ultimatums and demands is not negotiations, there is no movement to end this Iran conflict.  It has been reported that the best deal was achieved in Geneva when Iran agreed to most parts of the nuclear deal and the war began the next day. We should not expect that any negotiated peace is possible at this point. It seems there is probing attacks and some sort of effort to find a weak spot in Iran in the hope of some decisive military action,  an action to defeat Iran without collapsing the world economy. 

Trump is off to China to meet XI, unless war resumes, I wonder if there is really anything to talk about? We will soon be at an impasse with China, especially with the continuous trash talk coming out of Washington.  The reality is that contrary to the narrative about China needing access to the U.S. market, it will soon be true that they will no longer need that access, but can the U.S. survive without the products now made in China? As for cutting off their energy from the Gulf, don't underestimate China's ability to increase its moves to other forms of energy and also increase access to Russian oil.

Rumors are increasing of a decisive event building internally in Ukraine, coupled with other reports that Putin has finally been convinced by his right wing to get this conflict over with quickly. A combination of internal turmoil and outside escalation at the same time?

Financial problems in the Gulf countries, who have massively increased their debt in an effort to diversify away for dependence on oil, but insured by oil revenues that no longer exit. The fear is that they will need to start liquidating their U.S. holdings, already causing some private equity firms to limit withdrawals. The U.S. treasury it seems is hoping to rescue them rather than let their liquidations start a slide in asset prices. Can the  U.S. treasury prop up any more, when it is having a hard time doing the same at home? 

Something has to give soon, oil needs to flow or increased prices and actual shortages will inevitably cause liquidations of other assets, once started, it may be impossible to stop.

Are Plug in EV's soon obsolete?

 CHINA AUTOMAKERS BECOMING INNOVATIVE LEADERS

BECOMING THE DOMINANT GLOBAL AUTOMAKERS

Chinese automakers, now producing 35 million vehicles in 2025, are also becoming leaders in innovation. It seems the innovations are moving so fast that within only a few years older models are looking obsolete. China is the largest producer of electric vehicles. It is also the largest producer of vehicles, 35 million,  with the U.S. second at 10 million and Japan third at 6.2 million. China exported 8.3 million vehicles with the largest markets Mexico, Russia, UAE and the UK. China also exported over 500,000 used vehicles. Canada is expected to allow a test import of 50,000 cars in the near future.

They are manufacturing small electric city cars with 300 mile range for near $10,000 up to exotic cars with 1200 hp competing with the Italian sports cars for under $100,000. 

Their latest innovations are a BYD hybrid that uses a super efficient gas motor rated at 46% efficiency that eliminates the transmission, which uses lots of power, and the engine runs a generator system that runs the car electrically until it get up to highway speed, then switches to low RPM direct engine drive. It is rated to deliver around 85 miles per gallon. This translates to a range for the vehicle of 1300 miles. The average efficiency of other vehicles is near 30%. 

Dongfeng company has stated that they have produced a new engine at over 48% efficiency that will produce 94 miles per gallon with a Hybrid driveline. 

Not much feedback is available on the maintenance and realizability of these cars, but when the EU and NATO forced BMW, VW and Mercedes to suspend car exports to Russia, the Chinese quickly replaced those cars. While Russians were apprehensive it seems they are becoming satisfied with their new Chinese autos.

It is not expected that Chinese cars will ever be imported into the US, but the rest of the world will be a massive market for Chinese cars. There are reports of Chinese cars showing up in Texas in greater numbers, driven by Mexican commuters. 

Day 70, Indications of war far into the future.

 SENATE DEFENSE BUDGET HEARING INDICATES MORE WAR

PERSIAN GULF STRAIT AUTHORITY UNVEILED

The Persian gulf war ceasefire seems to be on life support and hostilities could commence at any time. It appears that war will be the status for many months, if not years to come. 

Yesterday, Iran unveiled its new "Persian Gulf Strait authority", PGSA, to administer traffic through the strait of Hormuz, It defines the corridors and conditions complete with application forms. We will see if it will be able to allow traffic through the strait.

The recent Senate hearings on the new Defense Budget to $1.5 trillion seems to have many Senators, both Democrat and Republican, ecstatic at the hope of government money flowing into their states. We can expect that massive increase will be approved. The hearings narrative is that the United States now faces threats from many places and national security must be the most important thing on the agenda. It now appears that the Trump administration will soon confine its focus to foreign relations and war on many fronts. 

Discussion in the hearings on the need to implement the "Defense Production Act" and use corporations to increase military supplies including Detroit Auto makers. It is also planned to replace the dwindling energy supplies out of the gulf with U.S. LNG. creating excitement from Alaska's senators. One must ask, is the U.S. about to go on a total war footing? 

It may be that the status of the strait of Hormuz is exactly what is desired, replacing Persian gulf oil with U.S. LNG and thereby cutting off energy to those who we want to contain and control, and insure the payments in U.S. dollars.

Also part of the new budget is starting in December 2026, the Selective service registration will be automatically completed by information gathered from existing data. It will apply to all males between 18 and 26. 

It is clear that dominating the globe will require many more ships and sailors.

Day 69, More fake peace announcements?

 OIL PLUMMETS AGAIN ON PEACE PLAN

AMAZING THAT THIS STILL WORKS

On Sunday we saw the new plan to open the strait of Hormuz, it lasted one day. It was then followed by an announcement of an imminent peace deal, that only the U.S. knows anything about. It was followed by large drop in the oil futures market, just like after every other imminent peace deal. 

Project freedom lasted one day because Iran struck the UAE oil terminal that bypasses the strait of Hormuz and directs oil to the Red sea. It is reported that Saudi Arabia and Qatar also complained that it was going to risk damage to their oil facilities. Saudi Arabia yesterday announced it would now ban the use of its airfields and airspace for future attacks on Iran. The gulf nations understand that Iran is warning that if attacked again, they will destroy the oil production facilities in the region.

It seems there really is no progress on an end to this conflict and I doubt that Trump is that concerned if the gulf oil is taken offline permanently, except for the rise of the oil price, which would be politically damaging.  It is becoming obvious Trump believes the U.S. can supply oil to its allies if necessary and will increase the U.S. trade income.

The trade war, especially in oil, is heating up, Ukraine, with the help of the NATO, is increasing its attacks on Russian oil. Interruption of oil tankers is occurring in many places. Russia has warned Ukraine that any attacks on Moscow during their WW2 celebrations this weekend is going to result in a massive attack on Kiev, and has recommended the evacuation of civilians from Kiev. I doubt that this is an idle threat.

The increased threat to global oil supplies can be expected to result in big power direct conflict at some time, probably soon.

As for Iran, the air war has not brought about capitulation, further air war promises to bring retaliation and a further damage  to oil supplies. The attempt to capture the nuclear material failed and the attempt to open the strait also failed. Now in the 10th week, it may be an indication that this conflict may go on for many months. It is racking up enormous costs to everyone on the planet. There is no indication that either side will capitulate any time soon.

U.S. policy, Reinvent the British Empire?

PLANNING ON  RULING THE WORLD

CONTROLLING GLOBAL CHOKE POINTS AND ENERGY

While many assume the Iran war is a tragic mistake or caused by Trump's deference to Israel. The reality is becoming quite clear that this is all about global dominance. It is not a mistake, it is all about the foreign policy adopted long ago, at least for 35 years. It is nothing more than an attempt to reinvent the British Empire, but under U.S. dominance. 

At one time the British Empire came as close to any nation in history in ruling the world. While Greece, Rome and others ruled the advanced world of the time, only the British empire did, in effect, rule the world. It was not possible until the industrial age with ships and eventually aviation, capable of projecting power around the world. 

It seems this plan has been adopted by the Trump administration, before being sworn in for his second term. He signed on for the plan being pursued by previous administrations.  Whether the American citizenry really wants to adopt the policies of the former British empire, is yet to be decided. A system that created division, death and destruction and forced it dominance by any means possible, starvation in Ireland and India, forced drug acceptance in China or brute military power. For any Christian or other person with a morale foundation it is not what we should be setting the hope of our future on.

The signs were visible since the beginning of this administration, The changing of the name of the department of defense to the department of war. The funneling of all saving wrought by DOGE to the military budget and now the hope of increasing the military budget by 50%. The plan to retake control of the Panama Canal and the plan to incorporate Greenland and Canada into the U.S.,the colonisation of Venezuelan oil and now the attempt to take control of Iranian oil, all Persian gulf oil and control the strait of Hormuz and Malacca straits. This is also tied to the hope of gaining access to Russian oil and resources or make them unavailable to the rest of the world. It is a hope to control the flow of energy and resources all around the world and thereby force political compliance and the use of the dollar in world trade. 

So far, the rest of the world has not seriously pushed back to this plan, whether because they do not believe the U.S. has the financial or manufacturing base to support this project and would rather see it die of its own overextension rather than by military confrontation. We may expect that soon all that may change, as now, the economic security of many nations is being threatened.

This plan requires a large vibrant Navy. The U.S. produced .5% of the world ships, China produces 50%., similar statistics relate to steel production, China produces over 1 Billion tons, the U.S. 80 million tons. A world ruling nation needs massive amounts of production. It also requires massive investment in capacity, the U.S has near $40 Trillion in debt caused by past consumption, with little available for investment in the future.

If the plan is to "Make America Great Again" by coercion, threats and controlling who will get resources and at what price, the leadership should have focused on providing the ability to sustain that power. When this power is seriously challenged, which it soon will, it may be a short and devastating disappointment.

Will AI produce wealth?

GOVERNMENTS MAY BE BIGGEST CUSTOMERS

WILL AID IN EXPANDING SURVEILLANCE STATE

AI has become the biggest source of speculative profit in the stock market. It is estimated that 75 to 80% of the stock market gains in 2025 were related to AI stocks. It brings back memories of the .com boom and bust of the past. While I suspect there will be success stories in AI, I have yet to understand how this new phenomenon will translate to more food, energy or improvement in the standard of living of the general population. 

So far,  it appears the biggest customer is government, for either military applications or for expanding the surveillance state. I suppose that it could eliminate a lot of jobs and costs in the bureaucracy, but only time will tell if it will be used in that way.  I also believe that there will be a massive bust in these companies as the best and those with the applications that can produce wealth will survive and prosper. With the advent of the internet, those companies and applications that increase sales and revenue out lasted those that did not. In most cases it was able to facilitate the movement of goods and services to more people more efficiently.   

So far, AI appears to be mostly about collecting data. We hear of massive data centers rising everywhere, with there thirst for energy. A thirst that may add to the cost to the public, but will it benefit the public or just make data about the populace a commodity. A commodity that will not likely produce any product or resource needed for human needs.

If AI is going to be used to better surveil and control the population one has to wonder, why. Does government now view its citizens with suspicion and will AI make it easier to identify those that may not be willing to easily conform to government plans. 

It seems the world is hell bent, or at least the elites and governments, about the possibilities of AI, all to be paid for by the taxpayers. There needs to be a better explanation of how this new technology will add to the wellbeing of the general population.

 

Day 66. U.S. goal is control of global oil.

 ASSUMED PATH TO GLOBAL CONTROL

ALL DEPENDENT ON U.S. NAVY

We must assume that the crisis in Iran will continue, no matter the consequences to the global economic system. It is now clear that oil is the ultimate weapon to be used to maintain political control of the global economic system.  While many assume the Iran war was a blunder or a plan originating in Israel, it is far more. It is just one step in a attempt to maintain control of the global economy. 

It seems Trump's second term is all in on the ongoing plan of the neocon elements in the U.S. to maintain U.S. global hegemony. This plan started with the first Bush administration, if not sooner, and has been followed by every administration with the possible exception of the first Trump administration. The hope is to maintain global control by controlling global oil supplies. So far, the U.S., besides being the largest producer of oil, at least for now, controls the oil of Venezuela and Iraq, and now all the oil coming out of the Persian gulf. Don't expect the U.S. to relinquish this power anytime soon. 

As the U.S. has focused on the persian gulf, they have delegated the diminishing of Russian oil to, Europe and Ukraine., who have been increasing their attacks on Russian oil production. I suspect the so called estrangement with NATO is just so much theater. It seems Ukraine is now more focused on attacking Russian oil production than even defending their territory and the EU is upping pressure on Russian navigation, everywhere it can.

With the blockade of the strait of Hormuz and pressure being exerted on Indonesia to give the U.S. access to controlling the strait of Malacca, the U.S. can control most petroleum products destined for China and all the southeast Asian countries all either part of BRICS or ASEAN alternatives to U.S. controlled economic system.

The attempt is to force the use of the dollar in international trade and hope to continue the U.S. ability to use sanctions and other pressure to maintain political control. The gulf nations were beginning to trade their oil for other currencies, with the U.S. controlling the Strait of Hormuz that will come to an end. 

While there has been success so far, Europe has been stripped of their access to Russian oil, by sanctions and the destruction of the oil pipeline, the big target now is China and southeast asia. So far, India has resisted giving up its access to Russian oil and China has just in the last few days refused to adhere to U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil. Trump is expected to visit China in ten days, and we can expect an attempt to intimidate China.

While all this seems to be well underway, no one has yet to challenge the U.S. on the high seas. The big enforcer of all this is the U.S. Navy, the undisputed, as least so far, dominant Navy in the world. The question is, can the U.S. maintain this Navy, with the economic crisis of debt, fiscal irresponsibility and a manufacturing base that is questionable in maintaining and renewing this naval power.

The U.S. has 11 aircraft carriers and only 3 are in service, and one of those is now headed for the U.S. There are serious morale problems reported due to long overextended duty cycles and the same applies so the U.S. reserve system decimated by long and repeated call ups. As this attempt to control the oil increases, it will be a serious threat to many and can the U.S. increase its Naval presence and can it replace any vessels damaged or destroyed? Can it find the qualified sailors to keep this fleet in service? 

As this use of the NAVY increases, we can expect pushback for those affected by diminished oil resources, the U.S. Navy is the obvious target, and there are several that have substantial capabilities to challenge the NAVY dominance.  

 

Day 63, Economic pressures rising.

 RESUME MILITARY ACTION SOON, OR GO HOME

TOLL ON ECONOMY, MIDTERM ELECTIONS 

All indications are that an attack on Iran is imminent. Today is May 1, and primary elections will be happening in the weeks ahead, it can be expected that this war will have some influence on even these elections, but with 7 months until the general election, time is running out to have some sort of conclusion to this conflict. That, coupled with the fact that economic pressure is building, particularly in other parts of the world, but it will also affect economic condition here at home.

It is very unlikely that a revolution is in the making in Iran. While sanctions and the blockade will damage the economy it will not happen in the immediate future. A major attack will assuredly be responded to by Iran and will further damage the global economy. A military operation to gain control of the strait of Hormuz is a real gamble, failure would be catastrophic to both Trump and the U.S. image. It seems the nuclear material is no longer at the top of the list of conditions. It is all about the global oil supply and Iran at present has control of the strait of Hormuz. This will only intensify with every passing day.

Possibly the best solution would be to back off, allow Iran to regulate traffic through the strait and hope that the global economy will recover quickly. it would be a humbling experience, but would at least be a predictable outcome that would not worsen the global economic system.

Trump could still claim victory that Iran's nuclear ability is devastated and that its economy has been seriously damaged. It would also allow revisiting this issue after the elections. In fact, if the elections go badly, Trump will only have foreign relations left for the rest of his presidency, his domestic policy already disrupted by this war will then be nonexistent. In fact, if the border wall is not completed by Jan. 2027, it will most likely never be completed.

It appears as though Trump has shifted from, "Make America Great" at home to have a large military and attempt to rule the world. It will end as all such endeavors in history have ended, with failure and further decline at home.