Day 69, More fake peace announcements?

 OIL PLUMMETS AGAIN ON PEACE PLAN

AMAZING THAT THIS STILL WORKS

On Sunday we saw the new plan to open the strait of Hormuz, it lasted one day. It was then followed by an announcement of an imminent peace deal, that only the U.S. knows anything about. It was followed by large drop in the oil futures market, just like after every other imminent peace deal. 

Project freedom lasted one day because Iran struck the UAE oil terminal that bypasses the strait of Hormuz and directs oil to the Red sea. It is reported that Saudi Arabia and Qatar also complained that it was going to risk damage to their oil facilities. Saudi Arabia yesterday announced it would now ban the use of its airfields and airspace for future attacks on Iran. The gulf nations understand that Iran is warning that if attacked again, they will destroy the oil production facilities in the region.

It seems there really is no progress on an end to this conflict and I doubt that Trump is that concerned if the gulf oil is taken offline permanently, except for the rise of the oil price, which would be politically damaging.  It is becoming obvious Trump believes the U.S. can supply oil to its allies if necessary and will increase the U.S. trade income.

The trade war, especially in oil, is heating up, Ukraine, with the help of the NATO, is increasing its attacks on Russian oil. Interruption of oil tankers is occurring in many places. Russia has warned Ukraine that any attacks on Moscow during their WW2 celebrations this weekend is going to result in a massive attack on Kiev, and has recommended the evacuation of civilians from Kiev. I doubt that this is an idle threat.

The increased threat to global oil supplies can be expected to result in big power direct conflict at some time, probably soon.

As for Iran, the air war has not brought about capitulation, further air war promises to bring retaliation and a further damage  to oil supplies. The attempt to capture the nuclear material failed and the attempt to open the strait also failed. Now in the 10th week, it may be an indication that this conflict may go on for many months. It is racking up enormous costs to everyone on the planet. There is no indication that either side will capitulate any time soon.