Iran war goes global.

 GLOBAL SANCTIONS WILL HAVE LASTING CONSEQUENCES

FORCING WORLD TO TAKE SIDES 

 

As we witness nation after nation refuse to get involved in the Iran war, we now see a desperate attempt to force all nations to take sides in the Iran war.  The US policy of " You are either with us or you are our enemy" has now been implemented on a global scale. While many will attempt to shake their head yes, while not participating, we will see whether the US has the ability or the will to enforce this global economic assault on Iran and its allies. At one time it could be assumed that most would submit, but with the escalating number and intensity of sanctions as a economic weapon it may be that many will now understand that they may very well  be next.

 

Economic sanctions can only be successful if it can be backed up with military actions. The last few years has demonstrated that that ability is diminishing and may soon actually become non existent as the economic consequences of fiscal irresponsibility, massive debt and a diminished manufacturing base can no longer back up a policy of threats and intimidation for extended periods of time. This has been demonstrated both in Ukraine and now Iran. 

 

While neither conflict has been consummated it is obvious that even a win will be a hollow victory as the economic realities of ruling the world is unsustainable and inevitably leads to the end of empires as has been demonstrated time after time in history. 

 

The power of the United States, based on a sound currency, a massive manufacturing base continuously creating wealth and sound financial policies no longer exists. It also appears that no effort is being made to reform this dying system to its former glory but hopes to extend it by military force that it will not be able to back up.

 

While we have been, in effect, in a world conflict between the declining world power and the rising world power it is inevitable we are on the precipice of a massive period of economic destruction. The massive debts and deficits can no longer be sustained and must be eliminated and hopefully it can be followed by a period of prosperity to follow.   

 

 

 

 

Eurasian realignment accelerates.

IS US POLICY FORCING REALIGNMENT?

CHINA SAYS NO TO SANCTIONS 

 

In the last week it appears that huge changes in the realignment of nations in west Asia is underway, In fact possibly extending far beyond west Asia. Whether intentional or not, it appears these changes are actually being accelerated by US policy in the region. 

 

Today, Pakistan's Asim Munir and a large delegation is traveling to Tehran. Many report that this is an attempt to restart negotiations with Iran but many conclude that it will include far more topics that may not be what the US assumes. 

 

One is an expected increase in trade between Pakistan and Iran, contrary to the big news expected of extensive sanctions by the US,  sanctions that will include threats to any nation who does trade with Iran.  Is Pakistan saying no to sanctions on Iran?

 

China has announced that they will not partake in any sanctions on anyone and has gone as far as to penalize any companies in China that engage in sanctions. That is very clear stand on sanctions on Iran. Will the US now impose penalties on China?

 

There is also speculation and some indication that the Mecca accord signed last week between Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan may be offered to Iran. Last weeks attack by Israel on an air base in Syria next to Turkey's border and the indication by Israel that Syria is now under their control is likely the impetus for this new expansion. There seems that there is now more countries interested in some sort of mid east NATO like effort.  

 

It seems many of the gulf countries are in quiet talks with Tehran in an effort to normalize relations in the region.

 

Trump's attempt to offer $1 billion to the head of the IRGC and the threat to demand $10 billion from South Korea has not played well anywhere. In fact China's foreign minister was in Seoul in only days after the dust up over South Korea refusing to get involved in the Iran war. It may have been the straw that has moved South Korea to reevaluate  where their future is best aligned.

 

It appears massive changes are underway, and that they are accelerating, one wonders if they can be reversed by threats of economic and military action or will this end with a complete reordering of the political landscape of the region. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

$40 Trillion debt, Trump Bank.

 TREASURY INTERVENTION, TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE 

FINANCIAL SHENANIGANS, NOT REMEDY 

 

The U.S. national debt set the new record of $40 trillion and is rising by the day. The deficit for this year is expected to top over $2 Trillion and with massive spending plans for defense and domestic programs, no matter which party is in power, can be expected to explode every year from now on, or until the whole fiasco collapses.

 

The yield on the 30 year bond is still at  5.25% and the 10 year at 4.7 % even after the treasury bought back bonds in an effort to lower the yield, buying its own debt with more borrowed money is not a solution and in today's informed world is just another sign of the unsustainability of U.S. fiscal policy. Gimmicks like "quantitative easing" may be now understood as feeble attempts to kick the can down the road. One wonders how long the road is until it ends in a cliff. The interest on the debt is now projected to be over $1.4 Trillion this year.

 

Looking at the administration and the congress there is no sign that any change of direction is coming, it is clear they will ride this dying pony until it dies. What come then is anyone's guess, but you can bet it will cost every citizen more than they can imagine.

 

Then there is the recent report that the new "Trump bank" is near approval.  It will not be a traditional bank, but a vehicle to administer the new "Stable coin".  Stable coin was sold as an effort to increase the ability of Federal government to fiance the debt by exchanging every US. dollar for 1 stable coin which can be used for digital commerce. Each dollar will be invested in U.S. debt and the vehicle "Trump Bank, will be paid the interest on the debt as a fee for the transaction. It is just a new method of profiting from the increasing debt, just like the other big banks have been doing for years. While none of these banks invest their own money in this debt, they capture a percent of every transaction, a deal that can only be had with a cooperative effort of the government.

 

Contrary to the narrative, this is why the rest of world is attempting to free itself from the dollar and move to some new system that is sustainable. Everyone tied to this unsustainable spiral will be damaged  when it all implodes.

 

 

 

 

Ukraine war, Drone war laboratory.

 RUSSIA AND UKRAINE, THE BEST DRONE WARRIORS

DAILY EVOLUTION AND ADAPTATION  

 

Ukraine's soldiers were the first to, by necessity, improvise the use of drones. At first they were cheap Chinese drones with improvised grenades and artillery shells strapped on them. The Russians had drones but their use was limited at first, they primarily relied on artillery warfare and drones for reconnaissance. Today both sides launch hundreds or even thousand of drones a day.

 

Russia may have started out slow, but has improved dramatically, not only with drones but in electronic counter measures.  One side gets a temporary advantage and then the other side quickly adjusts or adapts, this has been going back and forth continuously. The battlefield today is in reality  predominately a drone war, it has kept Ukraine in this fight for much longer than any other tactic.

 

In recent weeks Ukraine has been successful in damaging Russia's oil facilities, gas stations and other oil infrastructure, along with damage to ships in the Azov sea. Russia responded by in effect making Odessa and other Black sea ports inoperable. They have also destroyed almost all the refueling stations east of the Dneiper river.  While Ukraine has created lots of damage in recent days Russia has adapted and very few of Ukrainians drones have survived to their targets, Ukraine will now need to also adapt.

 

Russia acquired drones from Iran and then improved them dramatically and now has an ability to produce large numbers of drones. Drones are now becoming, at least for now, a major piece of offensive munitions.

 

Recently the U.S. played drone war games with a Ukrainian team and lost dramatically every time.  Not surprising, as Ukraine and Russia are now the best and most experienced at Drone warfare.

 

The U.S. has lost over 1/4 of their very expensive reaper drones in the Iran conflict, it will require much rethinking into its vulnerabilities.

 

Drones have made many expensive and over engineered equipment obsolete and vulnerable to low cost drones. The military world is watching and it will require a huge shift in priorities.  

 

 

 

No Coalition, No Mercenaries, No credibility.

  THREATS AND BLUSTER NO LONGER WORK

TIME TO SUCK IT UP AND DO THE RIGHT THING

 

The effort to recruit either a coalition of the willing or mercenaries seems to have come up empty. The Kurds said no long ago, and those who considered it were already attacked by Iran. The Syrian ex ISIS was informed by Iran to not think about it and it seems they are not interested. Possible unhappy factions in Baluchistan are out, either by good analysis or with the help of Iran. South Korea suffered the wrath of Trump by saying no to any involvement in this fiasco. The Saudi's have suffered by agreeing to attack Iraq and Yemen and may be thinking better of any more.  

 

That leaves the U.S. and Israel, same as in the beginning, except after a year of perpetual readiness, the spear is starting to melt in the gulf sun. Marines on ships for six months are not as ready as they once were and time is running out to use them at all. The economic realities cannot be postponed indefinitely and once the snow ball starts rolling it may be difficult to stop.

 

Then there is still the talk of a nuclear solution. Is the talk in itself just more bluster?  It appears Iran is not going to be intimidated into surrender and the waiting game will be as damaging to the globe as to Iran, as will further conventional warfare.

 

Then there is Israel, likely threatening the use of nuclear if Trump doesn't.  Israel probably is willing, but should understand that some third party may very well decide to end all of this in one fell swoop. The use of nuclear by the U.S. may be another matter and the preferred route. Trump's dilemma is growing, desperation is apparent, there is no easy way out and the clock is ticking.

 

 

 

Logistical problems of the Iran war.

 THE PROBLEMS WITH A 10,000 MILE AWAY WAR

SUPPLY IS MONUMENTAL UNDERTAKING 

 

The recent revelations about the difficulties on the Abraham Lincoln have brought the difficulties of the supplying the necessary materials to the region to the surface. Iran is over 7000 miles from California in a straight line and all those supplies have to come from the U.S. mainland at some point. Of course we have bases in Hawaii, Philippines and Japan, but it is still a massive undertaking. Most supplies have to be transported by ship. 

 

The U.S. main base in the gulf region was in Bahrain the headquarters of 5th fleet. It was evacuated within days of the onset of conflict and no longer is able to be used. This leaves Diego Garcia 2500 miles from Iran. I recall that the British confiscated the Island from the locals in the late 1960's and turned it over to the U.S. to be used as a base. The Navy scuttlebutt at the time was that it was going to be pivotal as the focus was shifting from southeast Asia to the middle east. Interesting that this was way before  the Islamic revolution Saddam Hussein, or other issue in the middle east.

 

Diego Garcia is 5200 miles from Japan, 3600 miles from the Philippines, 8900 miles from Hawaii. Ships like supply vessels usually travel at around 20 miles an hour. The distances are not in a straight line and have many tuns and detours.

 

While Navy warships can be resupplied at sea it is confined to food, fuel and items that can be moved ship to ship. Munitions, particularly missiles, have to be resupplied  in port.  With the closest base now 2500 miles away it is massive undertaking and very costly. 

 

Aircraft logistics are also a massive undertaking.  Iran is near 1000 miles from Israel and Jordan, this is were most of the land aircraft and tankers have been relocated, as gulf bases have been severally damaged. All offensive aircraft must be refueled once incoming and once outgoing in the air, as the fuel range is near 600 miles. Aircraft carriers are positioned as far as 600 miles away and also need in air refueling. Most of the defensive  missiles have been moved around Israel and Jordon to protect these tankers and aircraft.

 

 The long range radar  stations have all been destroyed and are being replaced by airborn AWAC aircraft. The warning times for incoming missiles is now only minutes for bases in Israel and Jordon. 

 

It now becomes more clear to why Russia has not moved deep into Ukraine as it has its logistical support within only miles of its supplies. For Ukraine it is 800 miles from Poland to the front

 

Logistics is always a great part of any conflict. in a attrition war it can be the deciding factor. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The U.S. has lost internal control of its future.

 CHANGES WILL NOT COME FROM THE ELECTORAL PROCESS

OUTSIDE FORCES WILL FORCE REAL CHANGES

 

We now hear of the great changes coming from a midterm election and then of course 2028. The direction of the country is no longer governed by elections and thoughtful decisions, it is going to be governed by the consequences of decades of irresponsibility and past decisions. Decisions not made by citizens or in the best interest of the country, but decisions made by numerous groups of special interests who have sown the seeds of the country's demise. The country will survive, but it may be decades for it to recover to a sound, stable and prosperous future.

 

I am sure many will dismiss such speculation as just doom and gloom appraisals of the situation, but it is clear the foreign policy of this country has been dictated by others, rather than the people or even its elected officials. It seems presidents are allowed to whipsaw the internal domestic politics, but foreign policy and the direction of the country is uniform and the same no matter election outcomes. The midterms and the 2028 election will be very anticlimactic and will have no effect on the real direction of the country.

 

The Democrats, due to their embrace of mediocrity, literally do not have any candidates qualified to lead or bring any vision for the future. We will see a domestic agenda of a move to more socialism, more spending, more debt and still war in numerous places.

 

The Republicans will be unable to shake themselves of the control of donors and those who believe we can still force the world to submit to our diminishing power.  More spending, more debt and war in numerous places.

 

The country is on a rail to its demise financially and politically and with the present debate of deciding if nuclear weapons are now the last ditch  method to enforce submission, it may all  make irrelevant any dog and pony show election distraction.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Are we destroying Navy morale?

 250 DAYS AT SEA IS UNBEARABLE

GOOD LUCK WITH NAVY RECRUITMENT

 

We are sometimes reminded of the horrors of crossing the Atlantic in sailing ships, Columbus,  the Pilgrims and others, their voyage lasted between 28 and 50 days. While today it is much safer than in those days,  time on the water is an exhausting affair.

 

I have spent as many as 90 and 120 days at sea and as young person it was a very depressing and overwhelming affair. Usually fresh water is rationed, hence the term,"Navy Showers", eggs that are 90 days old, safe, but not very appetizing. It is a test of endurance and possibly more so without a clear mission and objective.

 

The recent revelation about the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln is something that should not be happening, similar problems arose with the Gerald Ford with stories of internal sabotage etc. With eleven carriers, why have they not being rotated in a sensible humane way? It seems most of the others are in port, under repair and one wonders if they actually have crews to man all these carriers. 

 

This is an aircraft carrier and I suspect the same problems, but worse, are happening on the other smaller ships, which are not as comfortable or have the same quality of supplies as the the big ships. No one has mentioned that the climate this time of year in that region is often 120 degrees. One has to wonder if the air conditioning can keep up? 

 

I recall being at sea for months and the talk of sabotage or mutiny soon become commonplace, although none ever happened. Twice that time at sea is not really understandable or comprehensible. We can expect that it will have a long term effect on many of these sailors, their reenlistment rate will undoubtedly decline and when they hit  port, some will not return.

 

A similar abuse of the reserve forces in the other gulf wars I suspect has had lasting effects on recruitment. Many reservists, there for an existential threat to the nation, were called up for  1 year and sometimes multiple 1 year call ups, resulting in loss of homes, due to foreclosure, wives and families. Their lives were damaged sometimes irreversibly.

 

The repercussion of this war and other preceding wars is having lasting effects on the nation in more ways than can be predicted.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug. 13, 1971 beginning of U.S. economic decline.

 ITS BEEN DOWNHILL EVER SINCE

NOW ESCALATING 

 

On August 13, 1971 Richard Nixon met with 15 advisers at Camp David and sealed the fate of the U.S. dollar and the economic future of the country. While this fate could have been reversed, and we have had some periods of slowing, it has been a downward spiral ever since. It is now generally conceded that reversal is now impossible, only an unprecedented crisis awaits.

 

On this day 55 years ago, Nixon, by executive order, temporarily ceased to exchange U.S. currency for gold. This was a reaction due to the increase in foreign countries demanding gold for their inflation ridden dollars and the U.S. feared that its gold reserves would quickly be depleted. It would have, only 2 years after the last balanced budget of the U.S., many were aware of the direction the dollar was going and hoped to cash in while they could. Nixon also imposed wage and price controls and a 10% tariff on imported goods, it had little effect and the rest is now history. 

 

In 1974 Nixon repriced gold from $35 an oz. to $42.22 were officially it remains today. The market price of gold today is $4375 an ounce. A glaring result of the continuous devaluation of the dollar in the last 55 years, much of it in the last 20 years, as the deficits increase, the debt is now considered unsustainable and any informed investors understand that it is all unsustainable and something will break very soon.

 

The Vietnam war and the great society socialist expansion resulted in the first budget deficits.  Raising taxes to pay for these things would be politically unpopular just as they are today, except today it is virtually impossible to increase taxes enough or cut spending enough without a serious economic crisis as a result. Most understand that it is now too far gone to be corrected.

 

Much of the focus is now on protecting and sustaining the dollar as the worlds reserve currency, it is no longer possible, it has been virtually destroyed over the last 55 years and much of the world is now moving to gold and silver as a better store of wealth. 

 

In fact we are now increasing the debt by $Trillions  in an effort to force others to keep accepting diminishing in value dollars, just making the matter worse.

 

While this act by Nixon was one part of the beginning decline of America there is much more that we will address in another time. 

 

We have been told repeatably that gold as a basis of real money is an antiquated relic of the past, but we are going to witness that unbacked paper money is an attempt to steal the labor and assets of all that count on it as a store of wealth, it is a purse with holes  and fraud on all those who rely on it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Are West Asia countries hedging their bets?

 NEW ALLIANCES REPLACING THE U.S.?

IRAN WAR HAS HASTENED DECLINE OF U.S. INFLUENCE

 

The recent announcement of a new security agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan may be an indication that gulf countries are now planning to take control of their own security. They may have discovered that the U.S. is no longer in a position to offer that security. It is still not clear to what length this agreement goes and who they consider their biggest threat. While some assume it is an alliance to protect from Iran, it may be a growing alliance to protect from Israel and the United States.

 

Will Pakistan soon share nuclear technology to both Turkey and Saudi Arabia? Trump had proposed Saudi Arabia be assisted with nuclear enrichment, but only if they join the Abraham accords, which they refuse to do without a two state solution. Pakistan has had a close relationship with U.S. intelligence and one must wonder why they have been trusted by Iran in negotiations. Pakistan has also been cozying up to China, are they also hedging their bets?

 

This so called Mideast NATO has recently been proposed by Egypt, we will see if Egypt will be an addition to this group in the near future.  

 

One can understand the insecurity of these countries with the narrative coming out of Israel that Turkey is considered a greater threat to Israel than Iran and also concern about Egypt. It would be reasonable for these  countries to assume that the U.S. may also consider them a threat in the future. It is not far fetched to consider that even a alliance with Iran, insured by China could be in the future.

 

Then there is the clear indication that U.S. foreign policy is being based on the control of the worlds oil supplies, also a threat to their sovereignty. 

 

With the rise of MBS in Saudi Arabia the country  has cracked down on the support for international terrorism that once was financed by some in the country. His leadership has moved the country into a more aggressive entrance into the world financial community. The concern of the U.S. has been the acceptance of using Chinese currency in its oil transactions rather than the dollar. This is big no no for the U.S. and MBS likely understands that this will cause a problem with the U.S. The problem is, that most of these countries see China as a valuable partner for the future, both financially and politically, another reason for more hedging with an uncertain future. 

 

 

 

 

No Iran deal, just dueling economic warfare.

 U.S. WILL NEVER MAKE A DEAL WITH IRAN

IT WILL BE BACK TO WAR SOONER OR LATER 

 

It appears for now that the latest strategy is imposing economic hardship on Iran until it submits or surrenders to the U.S.  At the same time Iran will keep the strait closed until the U.S. is forced by internal and global pressure to back off from this war. 

 

The Israeli's concede that they may have to wait some time for the Iranian's to collapse and succumb to economic pressure, but they assume they will go the way of Syria, even if it takes years.

 

The Iranians also believe that in the short run they can cause severe damage to the presidency of Donald Trump  by continuing the economic pressure caused by the dispute over the strait. 

 

They all have reason to assume their analysis is correct, except there are many more interlocking variables to consider.

 

There is substantial evidence that this conflict will soon result in a global economic crisis that may far overshadow this conflict, way before Iran or the U.S. are willing to concede.

 

The internal politics of both the U.S. and Israel are very likely to become far more complicated in the short run than for Iran. 

 

Israel is claiming that Iran is forgoing attacks on Israel because they fear Israel's retaliation, I doubt this is the case.  Iran understands that without U,S. it will be at the mercy of Iran, so its focus is now on the U.S. 

 

We should expect that it will soon become obvious that economic pressure on Iran will not end this and a a last ditch attempt to overwhelm Iran militarily will eventually be on the agenda. It may be the last all or nothing throw of the dice.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ukraine down to their last strongholds?

 DONBAS DEFENSE BELT UNDER EVACUATION 

MAY BE FINAL BATTLE FOR REGION 

 

Civilians are being evacuated from the main defense belt of the Donbas region,  the stage is set for the final battle for the Donbas region. While the war may continue, it will be a major step to ending this war. 

 

Most observers believe that when Russia secures this region plus the other 2 reaming areas, Kherson and Zaporizhzia, it will be a prime time for a negotiated settlement. When this area falls it will make the defense of the other regions far harder to defend.  At present this battle shapes up as the largest and most defining battle in this 4 year war. With anticipated causalities of 100,000 on both sides and possibly lasting for the rest of the year, it may be anticlimactic. It may be that Ukraine will not be able to last another 6 months and internal crisis will actually bring all this to an end sooner. Either way, it will be a pivotal battle in this war.

 

While much is made about Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian ships and infrastructure, the reality is that Ukraine has lost control of the Black Sea and the port of Odessa, a another pivotal reality.  Ukraine is on its way to being a landlocked nation whose economic future will be greatly diminished.

 

It is hard to envision any real peace in Ukraine,  even after hostiles end, it looks like years of suffering  and economic decline. Will the west be in an economic position to rebuild what will be left of Ukraine? It is likely that the areas that are part of Russia, will outperform what remains.

 

 

 

Growing cost of maintaining empire.

WILL $1.5 TRILLION DEFENSE BUDGET BE ENOUGH?

BLEEDING TO THE POINT OF EXHAUSTION

 

Osama bin Laden warned the US that if they continued on their path in the middle east they would be bled to the point of collapse.  The architect of the 911 attack is long gone, but his worlds are more relevant today than in 2001, 25 years ago. With another prolonged costly war underway in Iran and another in Ukraine, can the US continue to be the master of the globe?

 

We hear the new demand for $1.5 Trillion defense budget, an increase of $500 billion, as being necessary to defend the country from adversaries hell bent on the US destruction. The US has an estimated 750 to 800 military bases around the world, only an estimate, as no one really knows for sure how many. The UK also bankrupt, has the next largest number at around 100. The great so called threats to the US, Russia and China may have several dozen in lands adjacent to or bordering their countries. 

 

The US present Defense or War budget is now $954 billion and is claimed to be seriously inadequate.  China, a country with over 1 billion citizens, is next at $335 billion, admittedly rising, mostly due to continuous threats of US military and political leaders of inevitable war with China. Russia's military budget is estimated at $190 billion. Israel at $48 billion and Iran at $7.4 billion. No one is counting the pallets of US dollars handed out as bribes and incentives for other players to do military related operations for the greatest spender on the planet in human history, much of it borrowed or just plain printed money.

 

No one doubts that the US can ultimately defeat any adversary, ultimately with the use of nuclear weapons if necessary, at least for now. The question is how long can the US maintain the financial power to keep maintaining this empire, that is fraying badly. In December the selective service registration will become automatic and some suspect that it will be necessary to add many more warm bodies to the ranks to keep up the defense of empire. Reluctant warm bodies have often proved to be sometimes a liability rather than an asset, but I suspect this is were the country is going, like on a rail, with out brakes, until it ultimately self derails.

 

All the while, the adversaries may understand better than the architects of this empire that it is all unsustainable and time is running out, they just need to survive and not directly confront the monster, until it self destructs. 

 

 

 

 

Iran and Oman agree to strait plan.

 WILL TRUMP END BLOCKADE?

THE CHANGING GLOBAL ORDER

 

Iran and Oman have announced that they have worked out the details on a plan to insure safe passage through the strait of Hormuz, if this is correct, the only obstacle for free flow of passage is the Trump blockade, another dilemma for Trump. It seems that traffic will enter the strait on Iran's side of the strait and exit on Oman's side. Both countries will cooperate in maintaining orderly traffic to insure environmental guidelines and assist in any safety problems. They will charge a small fee for this service, no toll, maintaining that such fees conform to international maritime law.   

 

In effect, this agreement maintains that the strait can now be open and it will all depend on whether Trump will accept this arrangement. We can expect the majority of the countries who depend on traffic through the strait, will agree to this plan. There is speculation that Trump will agree, if the US shares in the income from the fees or assists in Oman's share of the regulation.

 

This may be another opportunity for Trump to declare victory and get out of this mess, without destroying the global economy. We can bet the wires are burning up from all those opposed and possibly from those that will accept this solution.

 

In the Ukraine conflict Russia has in effect disabled Ukraine from using the port of Odessa. It is unlikely that Ukraine can regain use of the port, making it a landlocked country.

 

The US is attempting to intervene in the Japan bond market crisis, also part of the consequences of the energy problems in Asia caused by the Iran war. 

 

The world is watching as the dynamics of the existing world order are in transition.

 

 

 

 

Iran negotiating with Oman on future of strait.

 NEW REALITY EMERGING IN WEST ASIA

 NEW REALITY WITHOUT ANY DEAL?

 

While much angst and threats of escalation continue, Iran and Oman have come to the final details on the plan to regulate traffic in the strait of Hormuz. One must wonder if the Iran crisis will end with a gradual change in the political alliances rather than a destruction of Iran. Of course, it is too early to tell, but world economic pressure is rising on many fronts and a continuation of the present conflict is becoming harder to justify.

 

While Iran has for most of this conflict had a policy of retaliation from attacks in a measured 1 on 1 response, it now seems it is attempting to increase its retaliation to be more aggressive in response. At present things have died down militarily, and escalation is becoming very dangerous politically, economically and even militarily. While there is talk of negotiations, there may be talking between intermediaries, there is not any direct talks between Iran and US and it seems there is not going to be any.

 

The Gulf countries are now in a box of their own, there is reluctance to support further escalation that could destroy these countries economically for years to come. Also, and one must suspect while the governments fear and are reluctant to deal with Iran their populations are now beginning to view Iran as the strong actor in the region. The much touted Shia Sunni division may be less real  in the general populations than in their governments. Is Iran becoming more of a hero to the Muslim population as this crisis goes on?  Iran has been able to engage in a rational unemotional policy that has been very disciplined and transparent, resistance with power, almost predictable and pragmatic responses, they do seem to have a plan and are following it.

 

The danger for Iran is over reach which could spell their doom, but so far, considering what they have endured, they have have been steady in their policies. Then while support in the US is weak for this war. it may be expected some sort of false flag attack by US players or Israel in the hope to gain support for the ultimate destruction of Iran. The immediate labeling of the migrant attack in Spain, by the majority of observers, blaming Israel and the US for punishing Spain for not being co combatants in this war may put a real damper on any attempts for such an attack.

 

At present there seems to be desperation in Washington, Tel Aviv and the Gulf countries, but time is running out, this situation needs to have some sort of conclusion soon, or the economic crisis emerging will possibly be more dangerous than this war.

 

 

 

 

 

Will debt and bond market soon take center stage?

 JAPAN BOND MARKET MAY BE FIRST TO GO

OTHER WESTERN BONDS MAY BE NEXT

 

While the world is focused on the Iran war and oil prices the next serious crisis may be underway in Japan. Japan has the largest debt to GDP in the world, often linked to their financial crisis from 1989 that has never been resolved, just papered over like many countries in the west. Japan is the largest holder of US debt and problems in Japan will cause a need to liquidate other holdings to salvage their bond market.

 

It may be a cascading problem that will affect all bond markets. The 10 year US treasury is now yielding 4.7 % and 30 year 5.25%. Japan holds over $1 trillion of US debt and it may be necessary to liquidate some of that and not buy any more. China has been downsizing its exposure to US debt for some years and now hold near half of what it did some time ago. With massive deficits in the US, and a desire to dramatically increase defense spending, it can only go one way.

 

This will result in servicing the existing debt to become the biggest single expense in the budget which is already over $1 Trillion. This crowds out money for important investments as the past spending begins to cripple economic growth going forward. It has been reported that Metals have replaced Treasury debt as the largest share of foreign reserves. 

 

This coupled with the gulf countries also experiencing almost no income for now over 5 months have liquidated gold and treasury bonds and also are being covered by the US treasury. The US treasury will not be able to intervene in the gulf countries and Japan and manage its own problems that are escalating.

 

Much of the debt in the US can be attributed to 30+ years of foreign military intervention coupled with buying votes with more grants and spending by the Federal government. Whether now is the time it all comes due is not yet clear, but it may very well be the beginning of the end of deficits and unrestrained spending.

 

 

 

 

 

Trump's agonizing dilemma, no win in sight.

 TRUMP BACKS AWAY FROM ESCALATION

AT LEAST FOR NOW

 

Yesterday, Trump at least postponed the anticipated massive attack on Iran.  We can speculate that the phones and messages are burning up Trump's phone as never before, Primarily by those who want this war to continue.

 

Trump's dilemma is, yes the US has the power to destroy Iran as a functioning state, but the consequences are not easily calculated, it is the simple reason that former presidents, all who supported Israel, and all hoped to control the oil assets of Iran, balked at outright war with Iran. Iran who has been under sanctions, war and threats of war by the US ever since 1979, knew that one day they would come to an ultimate test in a confrontation with the US. They understood that a military confrontation with the US would be devastating, but was not willing to go back into being a part of a colonial system as they were under the Shaw. Their dilemma is far more existential than Trump's has been, at least until now. 

 

The former agreement under Obama was considered a step in the right direction to normalize relations with Iran.  It put Iran on the world stage with all the major powers and it was in their  interest to live up to the agreement. Contrary to the narrative, they did live up to the agreement, at least as long as the US continued to do so. When the US, under pressure on Trump, by Netanyahu, pulled out of the agreement, Iran proceeded to enrich Uranium to the 60 % level and informed everyone that they did so. They admitted it was effort to bring about another negotiation of the nuclear issue, but it became a rallying cry for the destruction of Iran. 

 

That negotiation was actually on its way to be successful in Geneva in late February, but one can speculate that US negotiators informed Israel before they informed Trump or Trump had already decided to attack Iran, we may never know. 

 

The attack on February 28 was a viscous and brutal attack that killed off the leadership of Iran in one day, the earlier attack by Israel in June 2025, also killed leaders and scientists and their families. While most deny it, the reality is that Trump refused to go along with that attack and declared victory after the attack on nuclear facilities, it was not what Israel wanted. Israel wanted and still wants Iran to be reduced to a failed state similar to Libya and Syria, leaving Israel one step away form being the dominate power in the region.

 

While Israel wants Iran destroyed as a nation, the neocolonialists and neocons in the government have convinced Trump that the US can preserve its hope of world domination by controlling the oil resources of the world. 

 

There is lots of evidence to back up this claim, it began when the DOGE savings, that were hoped to right the financial problems in the country, were immediately transferred to the military, the renaming the defense department to the Department of War.  The emphasis on Panama and Venezuela and Greenland. No audit of the defense department and the expectation to increase military spending to $1.5 trillion. The increasing of sanctions on any country that did not submit to US demands. The eventual capture of all oil revenue of Venezuela, and the hope of controlling all Mideast oil facilitated by gaining control of Iran's oil to be followed by the oil of the whole Gulf. A hope to control the world by controlling the oil resources as a lever.

 

So far it has not been quite that easy, there has been resistance and Iran is being backed up by Russia and China, understanding that Iran's geographical position and their oil resources are important to building an alternative economic system independent of western control. That is were we stand today. 

 

The US and Israel can destroy Iran, but Iran has credibility demonstrated that they can take down the world economy, as they are destroyed. They understand that they are under a existential threat to their survival and need to never submit to the inevitable destruction of their country. The hope of an internal collapse is evidentially non existent, Israel is focused on Iranian destruction and the neocons believe that if Iran prevails their hope of world domination is coming to an end. There may not be any winners in a further attempt to destroy Iran, but can the leadership in the US be content to be part of the world economy without being in control of it.

 

It appears that Trump has rejected the advice of the U.S. intelligence in predicting the risks of war with Iran, there is lots of evidence he has relied on intelligence from Israel and Mossad, which may be biased.  The resignations of Gabbard and Kent indicate this is true. The killing of Khomeini and the school girls was making sure that Iran would not easily submit but fight until they are destroyed.  

 

I do not believe that US has the manufacturing base or a sound economic base and currency to pull off this effort to control the globe and is further weakening its credibility and financial hopes for the future by  increasing debt and destroying good will. Resources sorely needed to restore the US financial systsem and manufacturing base are being squandered in its quest to preserve its control by economic and military threats. The US and the world is at a pivotal moment in history, with a the possibility of a positive outcome declining by the day.