Iran negotiating with Oman on future of strait.

 NEW REALITY EMERGING IN WEST ASIA

 NEW REALITY WITHOUT ANY DEAL?

 

While much angst and threats of escalation continue, Iran and Oman have come to the final details on the plan to regulate traffic in the strait of Hormuz. One must wonder if the Iran crisis will end with a gradual change in the political alliances rather than a destruction of Iran. Of course, it is too early to tell, but world economic pressure is rising on many fronts and a continuation of the present conflict is becoming harder to justify.

 

While Iran has for most of this conflict had a policy of retaliation from attacks in a measured 1 on 1 response, it now seems it is attempting to increase its retaliation to be more aggressive in response. At present things have died down militarily, and escalation is becoming very dangerous politically, economically and even militarily. While there is talk of negotiations, there may be talking between intermediaries, there is not any direct talks between Iran and US and it seems there is not going to be any.

 

The Gulf countries are now in a box of their own, there is reluctance to support further escalation that could destroy these countries economically for years to come. Also, and one must suspect while the governments fear and are reluctant to deal with Iran their populations are now beginning to view Iran as the strong actor in the region. The much touted Shia Sunni division may be less real  in the general populations than in their governments. Is Iran becoming more of a hero to the Muslim population as this crisis goes on?  Iran has been able to engage in a rational unemotional policy that has been very disciplined and transparent, resistance with power, almost predictable and pragmatic responses, they do seem to have a plan and are following it.

 

The danger for Iran is over reach which could spell their doom, but so far, considering what they have endured, they have have been steady in their policies. Then while support in the US is weak for this war. it may be expected some sort of false flag attack by US players or Israel in the hope to gain support for the ultimate destruction of Iran. The immediate labeling of the migrant attack in Spain, by the majority of observers, blaming Israel and the US for punishing Spain for not being co combatants in this war may put a real damper on any attempts for such an attack.

 

At present there seems to be desperation in Washington, Tel Aviv and the Gulf countries, but time is running out, this situation needs to have some sort of conclusion soon, or the economic crisis emerging will possibly be more dangerous than this war.