Blog Archive

Friday, April 17, 2026

Day 49, U.S. goal is global dominance, ignore the rest.

CONTROL OF IRANIAN OIL ONE STEP 

MAYBE A PAUSE, BUT CONFLICT WILL CONTINUE 



Many find it hard to understand what the goals of the United States are, it is often characterized as no goal, or no plan, or chaos. It is clear there is a goal and it is proceeding. In fact, this goal has been advancing for the last 35 years, if not longer. The goal is retaining the United States dominate position in the world, both politically and economically. The problem is that the United States is losing that position economically with massive debt, corruption and fiscal irresponsibility. The dollar, the cornerstone of the U.S. economic dominance, is a shadow of it former status because of that fiscal irresponsibility.  The U.S. manufacturing base is continuing to decline and be uncompetitive in the global arena, this again is due to over regulation, crony capitalism and corruption. 

Many hoped that the U.S. was about to embark on a policy of reform and renewal through the age old process of good government and fiscal responsibility, weeding out the massive corruption at every level and embracing tried and true business practices. It appears that that has been rejected, Washington now believes that dominance can be retained and even enhanced by military power, coercion, bribery and brute force. It is the age old policy of empire, but an empire that has already lost its manufacturing ability to sustain that brute force and its economic power has been squandered by fiscal irresponsibility and corruption. The brute force policy of the last 35 years has resulted in massive debt, and a flight from the dollar, yet this policy is being doubled down on, hoping the U.S. can still dominate by gaining access to the resource of others.

The present step is gaining control of oil resources of Iran, it is not about any other reason that has been offered to justify this use of force. Control of Iranian oil and then the next step, control of all the Gulf oil, is believed to give the U.S. control of the economies of southeast Asia. Of course, the main target is China, which has been under assault by propaganda as an enemy of the U.S., hoping to unseat the U.S. as the global leader. All that China has done is embrace the good business practices of the an earlier U.S. and has reaped success. 

It is clear, we have demonized Iraq and then taken control its oil, we demonized Venezuela and have taken control its oil, we have demonized Iran in an effort to take control of its oil. We have demonized Russia to hopefully break it up and take control of its resources. If you view U.S. foreign policy in that light it is far easier to understand the plan. Expect to see a reason to go after Nigerian oil in the near future.

At present, the U.S. has lost domestic support for foreign wars, but we see the planned increase in defense or war spending by 50%, we hear calls for shifting production of our remaining manufacturing to war supplies. Then what is needed is massive support at home for more war that is usually accomplished by an assault on the U.S. similar to 911 or Pearl harbor. The intelligence community is now an expert at such projects.

Of course, much of the world now understands what is going on and so far has only reacted, even Iran only reacts to U.S. escalation. One may expect that our adversaries will soon decide that push back is necessary, first by economic means, shedding U.S. debt and embargoes of material to the U.S.. This will set off an escalating action and reaction that if not controlled will lead to global war. The future is not defined.

Many hoped that a new administration in Washington would understand that a new era of mutual prosperity and cooperation is or was possible, but it seems that rather than the hard work of reform and renewal and mutual cooperation it appears easier to continue the corruption and embrace a policy of brute force. A policy that looks unsustainable and will result in a further decline in the prosperity of the country. 

 

Thursday, April 16, 2026

Day 48, So far, the blockade that's not.

PEACE DEAL UNLIKELY,  6 DAYS TO END OF CEASEFIRE

NO EASY WAY OUT OF THIS CONFLICT



So far it seems no ships have been stopped by U.S. forces exiting the Hormuz strait, maybe that will change after the ceasefire expires next Wednesday. Iran has already threatened to entice the Houthis to close the Red sea if the blockade really goes into effect. That would result in the combined cutting of 33% of the world's oil supply. Trump has been successful at keeping oil futures prices flat by continually claiming that peace is at hand, not really true.  

Iran claims that their whole negotiating team believes that they were going to be attacked, while in the air returning from Pakistan. It seems there were threats made that if they did not submit to the U.S. terms they would not get home. The whole team disembarked near the border and returned by train and bus. They will not go to Pakistan again, though they were happy with the Pakistan security while in Pakistan.

There is more evidence that the Pilot rescue was the result of a covert mission to grab the nuclear material that went wrong. With the loss of 4 planes and 4 helicopters, can we believe that there were no casualties. Iran has not mentioned the whole affair at all, very interesting.

Next Wednesday will be decision day, to either escalate by attempting to take control of the Hormuz strait or Kharg Island or to move to a temporary period of economic measures to pressure the Iranian economy. The big question is how to back down temporarily without Iran collecting tolls in the strait. 

If the goal is to take control of Iran's oil, this conflict will continue for years if necessary or until the U.S. can no longer maintain the forces and distractions materially and in the global economy. 




Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Dramatic drop in support for Israel, CNN poll.

 DROP IN EVERY SECTOR OF U.S. POPULATION

ANTI-SEMITISM OR ANTI-ISRAEL POLICY



CNN recently released a series of polls on the U.S. electorate. Polls concerning the support for Israel indicate a historic negative shift from 2022 to 2026.

1. Young Republicans under 50,   2022 +28    2026  -16  = 44% drop
2. Mod. Liberal Republicans                  +26             -  9  =  35% drop
3. Men under 50                                      - 3              - 47  =  50% drop
4. Mod-  Conservative Dems                  +3               -55  =  58% drop
5. All Adults                                            +13             -23  =  36% drop
6.                                   Israel  + 28          Palestinians  +11%


While we may hear that any criticism of Israel's policies are labeled as Anti-Semitism, these polls indicate that support for the state of Israel's policies has experienced a dramatic shift. 

I would expect that after Israel's massacre of over 300 Lebanese civilians in an attempt to coerce the Lebanese government to engage in a civil war with Hezbollah have further damaged their cause.  

The policy of assassinations of the leadership of their opponents even during negotiations, has further damaged Israel's support. While the above polls focus on the U.S. electorate, probably the strongest supporters globally of Israel, what is the support in the rest of the world? 

After the attack on Israel in 2023, they had the sympathy of the world on their side, but due to policies of Netanyahu and his ability to gain support for his policies in Israel and in the U.S. government, Israel has squandered that opportunity for meaningful advancement and created a situation that may be irreparable. This decline in support cannot be improved by narrative and propaganda, but only by real change of direction by Israeli policies. 

Another part of the poll indicted a 363% rise in google searches for Aipac, Israel's lobby. A search of  "Track Aipac" indicates that only single digits of Senators Representatives and Presidential candidates does not take money from this lobby. Many in the many millions of dollars.

Many may dismiss these polls and even the fact that it is published as an attack on Israel or anti-Semitism, that tactic and narrative will no longer fly and only real reform of Israel's policies will improve public support. Israel is the country most dependent on public support in the world, whether it acknowledges or not. 









Tuesday, April 14, 2026

Day 46, Moving the world away from the U.S.

 COLLATERAL DAMAGE INTENSIFIES

TRANSITION TO ECONOMIC PRESSURES



Yesterday, the new U.S. strategy of blockading oil exports by Iran began. Of course, Iran's position is, if they can't export, neither will anyone in the Gulf. We will see who cries uncle first, but the consequences of this approach are multiplying by the day.

The next shoe to drop may be the closing of the Red Sea, that would then eliminate 32 % of the world's oil with the closing of both choke points.

South Korea is now in a verbal bout with Israel, accusing Israel of war crimes and other illegal and humanitarian crimes. Japan is also not happy with this situation. We can guess the same applies to all of southeast Asia.

It must be made clear the U.S. Navy is not anywhere near the strait of Hormuz, but 600 miles out in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. They plan on stopping all ships exiting the Gulf, will they detain Chinese, Indian, South Korean and Japanese ships? This is in effect an act of war, we will have to wait to see if anyone will put this to the test. 

If this blockade would last long enough, I doubt if it will, to put the Chinese economy in trouble, the risk of war with China will increase dramatically. The U.S. fleet is now 7000 miles from the U.S. and many of its bases are over 1000 miles. Challenging the submarine fleets of China and Russia would inevitably result in serious U.S. losses, losses that could not be easily replaced. 

China and Russia could combine their engineering and construction capacity to accelerate pipelines from Russia to China and India supplying oil to all the U.S. allies, that would quickly become former allies. 

Again, the problem with a solution is Israel wants Iran destroyed, made into a unstable chaotic and desolate nation, like Libya and Syria. It is suspected that Trump has bought into the decades old neocon policy of obtaining control of the world's oil assets as a way of maintaining Dollar reserve status and global political hegemony.  I question if a hollowed out U.S. financialized economy can support that policy, but they may be willing to take down the world economy in a last ditch attempt. That leaves a sustained economic and slow picking away at Iran similar to the 15 years it took to overturn Syria, but they need to speed that process way up.

The narrative of Israel against Turkey is heating up dramatically, they are indeed setting the stage for war with Turkey, something that again would require U.S. assistance. Turkey, a NATO member, has a formidable military and its ground troops could not be matched by Israel.

Looking down from 100,000 feet in an objective way, indicates that Israel is entering a time that its existence is increasingly in doubt. Israel has lost its global support, it is engaging in wars in an unsustainable way.  Netanyahu's trial is again put off for 2 more months, must Israel stay at war to protect Netanyahu? Without a political change of direction, its future looks very dim. 




Monday, April 13, 2026

Day 45, Blockade the strait? More desperation.

 FAKE NEGOTIATIONS END QUICKLY

CAN U.S. AFFORD ESCALATION?



As we enter the 7th week of this Iranian, Israeli and U.S. war, we are now offered another desperate attempt to bring down Iran, a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, something that last week was a priority to open. The latest talks at least neutralized Trump's ultimatums and threats to end the Iranian civilisation, a dramatic dog and pony show that Iran agreed to participate in, fully knowing that it was all about Trump saving face. One can imagine that Iran felt it worth the effort to portray themselves as the responsible actors and the U.S. as floundering around and without any solutions. 

Closing the strait will bring about another outcry from the world's oil importing countries, who probably are willing to pay Iran the fee for an open strait, will they now have to pay the U.S. to end the blockade? We can expect that this latest strategy will end quickly, if it even happens at all.

Russia and China will not easily allow Iran to be overthrown, as its position is essential for their long term economic stability.

The Gulf countries that hitched their wagon to the U.S. and accommodated Israel in an effort to stabilize the region, must now be in a dilemma as to how to preserve their economic future. One must expect that they will soon realize that their oil assets are also going to be a target of their devious partners. Will they soon look to Iran or China as a new partner? Can they find a way for an amicable divorce from their present partners? Do their populations hold the same view as the leadership?

Listening to Netanyahu recently giving a speech to the domestic audience, he portrayed Israel as number 1 in cyber technology, this may be true. He went on to proclaim that Israel was going to be a world power, a delusion at best. Without its partnership with the U.S. it would most likely, not even be a regional power. It has also hitched its wagon to the U.S. and has grown in influence, due to this arrangement, an arrangement that has contributed to the U.S. amassing huge debt and a dropping global public opinion for both.  While Israel has a formidable air force, due to U.S. weapons, and a substantial defense for the same reason, their ground operation has yet to end Hamas and Hezbollah is inflicting serious damage to them in Lebanon. They resort to more genocidal attacks on civilians in their frustration.

The increase in inflammatory rhetoric with Turkey, indicates they are in the process of setting the stage for war with Turkey, a NATO member. They are causing unrest in Cyprus, part of which is under control of Turkey. Some in Israel believe they are as big threat to Israel as Iran.

The Israeli army is stretched to the breaking point and one would expect that, if there would not be a ban on Israli's exiting the country, a new exodus would be underway. I expect the population has decreased in the last 3 years.

No matter how advanced ones technology, a population of 8 million can never be a world power. An expansion of territory into Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Egypt will not cause a mass increase in Jewish immigrants into the nation. 

While the supply of precision guided ordnance and interceptors are a limiting factor in this war, the risk of a economic crisis is rising as oil prices begin a chain reaction of losses, defaults and derivative implosions that may be more effective in limiting the ability for war. Those dependent on others will be the most vulnerable.




Friday, April 10, 2026

Day 42, Ceasefire, Dramatic ploy to escape ultimatums?

 ARE TALKS TODAY JUST SHOWMANSHIP?

U.S. CONTINUES TO LOSE CREDIBILITY



One can not help but speculate that this whole ceasefire and agreeing to negotiate Iran's 10 point plan is nothing more than a dramatic ploy to escape the consequences of Trump's series of ultimatums that Iran essentially ignored. In fact, when Trump issued his most dramatic ultimatum of the "End of Civilization" Iran ended any communications with Pakistan. They just prepared for the worst, which would have escalated into an economic disaster for the world. Then came the last minute acceptance of Iran's proposal, which is now claimed to not be the terms that they agreed to. Today, we can expect that talks will go nowhere and hostilities will resume at any time or when a plan B or C is organized.

Last weekend's dramatic rescue of the missing Colonel now appears to be much more, with all the hardware and other unexplained details many now believe this was an attempt for a covert mission on the nuclear material in Isfahan, that was aborted with the shooting down of the F15. This would explain the frustration coming out of the white house. 

Israel's attacks in Lebanon, which Pakistan and others admit where part of the ceasefire, just enhances the appearance that Israel is not under the control of the U.S. Some believe it is the reverse that the U.S. is under the control of Israel, but this may again just make it possible to blame Israel when things go bad.

While everyone is focused on the hostilities between the U.S., Iran and Israel, it does not address the root of all this continuing violence in the region. Without a resolution of what will become of the residents of Palestine, this conflict will never end. Israel's plan to just either force them out or kill them is not a realistic option. At present, it is not likely that this will end without an intervention by the major powers both regional and global. 

Leaders of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the U.S., Russia and China should gather and negotiate a plan that may need to change borders significantly, compensate any who are displaced on by both sides and possibly build a wall between them. A limit on arms to both sides and intervention by this coalition to enforce peaceful compliance.  The state of Israel was created by international decision, now maybe it is time to fix the problem that they created.



Thursday, April 9, 2026

Day 41, Ceasefire on life support.

ISRAEL KILLS 254 CIVILIANS IN BEIRUT



UAE AND KUWAIT ATTACK IRAN


The ceasefire has lasted less than one day, while it appears Iran and the U.S. attempted to honor the commitment, other actors in the region believed it was a time for military advantage. The UAE and Kuwait attacked an island in Iranian territory and Iran responded in kind. Israel launched a new campaign called, "Eternal Darkness",  by bombing apartment buildings in Beirut killing 254 and injuring 1165 civilians. This prompted Iran to again close traffic through the Hormuz strait.

The New York times has released an article concerning the meeting in the White House where Netanyahu did a video presentation on the benefits of going to war with Iran. The U.S. CIA director labeled the plan farcical and Marco Rubio labeled it as Bull shit. It was opposed by J.D.Vance and the military. It appears someone on the inside thought it important to leak this meeting, supposed to have happened on Feb., 11, 2026. 

While it seems there is some confusion about the 10 point plan that both Iran and Trump consider as a basis for negotiation. Below is what it supposedly contains.

1. Non-aggression treaty for the future.
2. Iran will retain control of Strait.
3. Iran can enrich for commercial purposes.
4. Lifting of Primary sanctions.
5. Lifting of secondary sanctions.
6. Termination of UN security council resolutions condemning Iran.
7. Termination of IAEA resolutions against Iran.
8. Payment of compensation to Iran.
9. Withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region.
10. Cessation of war on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

Of course it is a framework for negotiations and a permanent treaty would be insured by other actors. Much of this could have been negotiated without war.

While many will find it objectionable, there will not be peace in the region without 
sincere efforts to deal with the Palestinian issue, Over 72,000 have died in Gaza and over 1000 in the west bank as violence against the unarmed residents of those areas continues. It is time that the major countries of the world get together and come up with a resolution of this matter and enforce its implementation. Obviously it is clear that those parties will never come to a resolution, short of complete annihilation of their opponents. It is time for a comprehensive peace agreement for the region and this may be the optimine time.



 

Wednesday, April 8, 2026

Day 40, Ceasefire, Prepare for phase 3.

 PAUSE IN HOSTILITIES IS NOT PEACE

LITTLE CHANCE WAR IS OVER



Last night a ceasefire was announced, it seems that Iran and U.S. and even Israel agreed to stop hostilities in Iran and the gulf. This is supposed to last for 2 weeks and includes free passage through the strait of Hormuz. Free, means free flow but may not mean without tolls.

One must assume that Iran understands that every ceasefire with Israel in history has not lasted very long, over 700 Palestinians have died since the last ceasefire in Gaza. Ceasefires with the U.S. are likely not that permanent as illustrated by Minx one and two with Russia that were just pauses to allow Ukraine to rearm. We can only assume that this ceasefire was about desperation of high gas prices with political implications and Israel needing a break and a restocking of missile defenses.

What Iran's strategy is will remain to be seen. Maybe they can restock and reorganize while the U.S. and Israel do the same. It is unlikely that the U.S. and Israel will allow Iran to remain standing in the long run, unless they are physically unable to destroy them. This ceasefire is just buying time to come up with a new plan, even possibly amassing a large ground force, which could take several months. 

China, the real object of this war, understands this as does Russia, we can only assume they have their own cards to play during this ceasefire. 

The big elephant that no one is talking about is the massive U.S. debt, massive deficits for the foreseeable future, the proposed cutting of social programs to enhance the military budget by another 50%, the growing resistance of buyers of U.S. debt and then of course domestic political opposition to endless war. Sooner or later the domestic political and economic situation will eventually be the only restraint on endless foreign wars.






Tuesday, April 7, 2026

Day 39, Goal may be control of Iran's oil.

 NO PEACE, ALL ABOUT OIL

DESTRUCTION OF GULF, NOT A PROBLEM



We hear all the attempts to describe the strategy in this continuing war and they are all secondary to the real goal, control of Iran's oil. Yes, it would be nice if Iran would just surrender and hand over the control of the oil, similar to what happened to Venezuela, but if it become necessary to destroy Iran and the gulf countries, that will only open up more opportunities. It has to be considered, that this is the plan all along. 

In fact, it is becoming obvious that the second Trump administration has been focused on retaining U.S. hegemony by controlling the global oil resources. We saw the set up begin by the increase in military spending, the withdrawal of material support from Ukraine, that was needed for the middle east campaign. The capture of Venezuelan oil and then the build up for the war on Iran. So far, internal revolution aided by the CIA and Mossad has not worked, destruction to bring about surrender has not worked, so it will most likely be total destruction of the ability for Iran to function. This will support Israel's goal and then allow the U.S. to take control of Iranian oil as a first step to the control of all Gulf oil.

The colleterial damage to the Gulf countries will make taking control of that oil much more easy and the destruction can be blamed on Iran. 

One must suspect that Trump understands that his domestic agenda is coming to an end, he is now free to focus on satisfying the Neo-colonialists and Neocons in attempting to diminish BRICS and hinder the economic prosperity of China and other Asian countries. Opposition at home can rant and rave, but the war will go on. Israel will be on board as it expands into Lebanon, the west bank and Syria.

Of course, that all depends on all this working out, eventually it will create a global economic crisis and can Israel endure the attacks from Iran. While U.S. prosperity will decline, it may still be better off than the rest of the world, making the U.S. still the best performing, as compared to the rest. Even the destruction of Israel will be just so much collateral damage in exchange for the ability to control global oil supplies and hence retain the dominate U.S. position in the world.





Monday, April 6, 2026

Day 38, Iranian air defenses alive and well?

 DANGEROUS ESCALATION IMMINENT

GLOBAL DEPRESSION MAY BE RESULT



While we have been told that the U.S. enjoys air supremacy over Iran, this weekend indicated that there are likely functional air defenses in Iran.  Most analysts have been indicating that the massive damage inflicted on Iran has been by the use of tomahawk missiles fired by ships and air to ground cruise missiles and guided bombs deployed outside of Iranian air space. Navy ships are near 1000 miles from Iranian airspace and even helicopters used in the rescue this weekend needed to be refueled in the air. 

In now appears that Iran has refrained in using their air defenses against those cruise missiles during previous attacks.  The reason being that once those air defenses are turned on they can immediately be targeted by other cruise missiles. It is indicated that Iran has chosen to absorb all that damage without response, saving their air defenses for the anticipated ground operations. 

Friday, a F15 and a A10 plane were shot down over Iran, they were very likely part of a process of preparing for ground operations, were they were forced to fly at low altitude surveying the topography. Eventually both pilots were rescued, but it brought about the loss of a C130 refueling plane and 2 helicopteres and the damage to 2 other helicopters. This was in a region devoid of actual Iranian military, but had civilian militia groups. This incident may very well now requires a rethinking of the plan for ground operations, which will require close air support from A10's and helicopters.

Last night we heard a vulgar statement from the president that will not have any serious impact on Iran, but indicates desperation concerning the next phase of this war.

The president has issued ultimatums of 48 hours, 5 days, 10 days and now the deadline is tomorrow to open the strait of Hormuz. The strait is open, if the passage is approved by Iran. This weekend, ships from France and Japan have passed and others even though the traffic has only been around 20 ships per day. 

The president has openly threatened to bomb civilian infrastructure of bridges, energy etc., considered a war crime. Iran has threatened to respond by doing likewise in the gulf region. An attack on the energy producing infrastructure of the gulf will result in a likely global depression within weeks. 

Iran, both the leadership and the population, understand that their sovereignty and survival as a nation is at risk, they are very unlikely to surrender to the U.S. and Israel. To defeat them may take a global economic depression, starvation in some parts of the world and years rather than months.

Israel is learning in Lebanon what Russia and Ukraine have learned very well, that due to FPV drones and shoulder fired weapons, close air support and tanks are becoming less effective. It has been reported that Israel has lost near 100 tanks in Lebanon. Ukraine does not have any air force to talk about and Russia with a large air force still does not fly over Ukrainian airspace.

Aircraft carriers which need to stay 1000 miles from their objective are not as effective as they used to be. The military world is changing by the day, and learning about it it is very costly.

One has to wonder if the military leadership is not telling this administration what it would like to hear, resulting in numerous firings and resignations. Maybe the president should have listened to these voices rather than Netanyahu and Mossad before he pulled the trigger on this disaster.




Friday, April 3, 2026

Day 35, U.S, targets civilian infrastructure.

 BRIDGES, VACCINE LAB, ELECTRIC 

IRAN STRIKES AMAZON AND ORACLE DATA CENTERS



Yesterday the U.S. began its program of destroying Iranian infrastructure, bridges, a Vaccine manufacturing plant, a pharmaceutical manufacturing plant and electric generation. Iran retaliated by attacking U.S. technology centers of Amazon and Oracle. It can be expected that they will soon attack Gulf countries oil and gas production facilities and desalination plants. It is likely that in the next few weeks the region will be in effect, disabled.  

While Trump predicts the war will go on for 2 or 3 weeks, that may be a very difficult prediciation. It is assuming that when the U.S. decides to stop, Iran will also stop. Can the U.S. go home if Iran continues to attack Israel and the gulf countries? We hear the bragging and europhia of a policy of death and destruction from the administration, but the bleeding is continuing, no only in Iran but for the entire region and the United States, who does not have the manufacturing ability to quickly replace what has gone up in smoke. It can be expected that a lot more will go up in smoke in the next few weeks.

The administration is now calling for a defense budget of $1.5 trillion and possible cuts to social programs to help pay for it. It is a suicide pact for the republican party. 

One can expect this war is going to hasten the move to an alternative global economic system and it may soon evolve into a alternative military alliance due to the narrative of violence coming out of Washington. International law observers have stated that if the present leadership of Trump, Hegseth, along with Lindsey Graham would be held to the same standards of the Nuremberg trials, they would be convicted by their own rhetoric and actions. One must wonder if a seperate international body will emerge with Washington and Israel on one side and the rest of the world on the other.

While this conflict is still ongoing, there are reports of supplies being accumulated in Greece and Cypress for a possible confrontation with Turkey. The new Iran according to Israeli politicians, who now consider Turkey a threat to their security.

It is very likely that hostilities in the region will continue into the fall and possibly even longer. It is very likely to remake the world into a very different place and not for the better.




Thursday, April 2, 2026

Day 34, It makes sense, Gulf destruction.

 ESCALATION AND DESTRUCTION OF GULF COUNTRIES 

TRUMP ADOPTS ISRAEL'S GOALS



Many anticipated that Trump was about to declare victory and end the Iran war. While declaring victory and repeating the litany of talking points about the justification for this war, no end is in sight. He engaged in the endless demonization of everything Iran, most either fabrications or exaggerations. He finally got to the point that was relevant, the U.S. will escalate the attacks in an effort to make Iran as desolate and uninhabitable as possible and then hope to focus on some other pressing issues in the next few weeks. 

We can assume that in the next few weeks the U.S. is going to attempt to destroy the energy, water and other infrastructure of Iran and Iran will respond by destroying the same in the Gulf region. This is predictable, not a maybe, unless the gulf countries finally understand that they are also an indirect target of U.S. destruction. Are they going to stand by, and allow this to happen? or decide that their own survival is more important than a 40 year dream of Netanyahu and the vision of  U.S. colonialism and world domination. 

Without desalination plants the gulf countries will need to depopulate within weeks, of course, the U.S. could then step in and take control of the existing infrastructure, the U.S. could be the saviour and Iran the villain. Of course, this is all speculation, but we will see what happens, either Trump is a maniac or an evil genius.

In the meantime the war will go on, oil prices have surged overnight and the effects on the world economy are increasing by the day. 

Israel is now fighting a 4 front war, they are taking significant loses of men and equipment in Lebanon, Iraqi militias are upping their attacks, the Houthis are slowly increasing their missile attacks and it is being reported that Iranian missiles are having increasing success evading defenses. It is still Israel that will probably be the first to seek an end, but can that be done, will be the question.

We can expect Israel will then threaten a nuclear option, as in the past, but it seems this conflict is no longer under the control of anyone.





Wednesday, April 1, 2026

Day 33, NATO says no to war.

 IRAN DID NOT ATTACK UNITED STATES

MULTIPLE INTERNATIONAL LAW VIOLATIONS 



In the last few days NATO members France, Italy and Spain have not only refused the use of their air bases but also their airspace for any transportation concerning the Iran war. While there are complaints from Trump, Rubio and promises of retaliation from Israel, these nations find a conflict in supporting this war. One, this war does not fall into the legal framework for NATO, no NATO member has been attacked and the attack on Iran is considered an unlawful war of aggression by international law. While the United States has openly declared that they are no longer adhering to international law, the EU nations are not yet willing to go there.

Besides the attack itself, the targeting of schools, hospitals and vital civilian infrastructure is also in opposition to international law.

Pete Hegseth, whose disgusting rhetoric in advocating death and destruction, is now being labeled the Secretary of War crimes.

Poland has refused to give up its patriot missiles to be shipped to Israel.

The European nations have been under economic assault since the Ukraine/Russian conflict due to limited energy, due to their refusal to buy Russian energy. This is all complicated by this war, a war of choice by the United States and Israel.

By not cooperating in this war effort, they will most likely be able to arrange the passage of energy products through the strait of Hormuz. 

Sunni Muslim Chechnya has announced that it is ready to give military assistance to Iran. While a small nation, it does have a sophisticated battle hardened military. This announcement may have implications with other Sunni Muslims who may very well be influenced by a growing empathy for Iran from the Muslim world.

While many believe this war will damage China and southeast Asia, it may be temporary, as China and Russia are in the process of building pipelines to move energy to Asia and the Arctic route will be open for tanker traffic. This energy may in time become available to Japan, Australia and South Korea.

Trump has voiced his opinion that he may leave this war with the strait closed, but the strait is not closed, it is controlled by Iran, while few ships are moving, it is increasing, as deals are made with those willing to accept this control.

Trump cannot end this war until both Israel and Iran are willing to end this war. It is unlikely that will happen in the near future.






Tuesday, March 31, 2026

Day 32, Is real objective, Gulf chaos and controlling the oil?

 WILL ISRAEL RUN OUT OF DEFENSE BEFORE IRAN RUNS OUT OF OFFENSE?

WILL ALL OF THE REGION END UP DESTROYED?


We are told that the objectives of this premeditated conflict is to deny Iran the ability of obtaining nuclear weapons. Israel adds that they should not be allowed to possess any weapons that could threaten their security. These are the stated objectives for this conflict, that is having global implications, that are going to be long lasting.

Israel wants Iran to be made a failed state, permanently, that is obvious, they are not concerned about global economics, the possible death of 100's of thousands, it is all about regional military supremacy.  They continue to strike targets that will insure that this war goes on and escalates, until Iran is virtually destroyed. They are supported in the U.S. by big donors and a dedicated mass of Christian Zionists, who believe this war must continue at all cost.

Iran understands this very well, and they will now continue until unable to physically resist. They have understood this for years, and have planned accordingly. 

The United States is the muscle that has the ability to make Netanyahu's 40 year dream come true. Israel will do all that they can to keep this destruction going until their dream is fulfilled.

Many seem to believe that the U.S. has been trapped into this war by the Israel lobby, but there are others who also advocate for this war, probably who have very little interest in the survival of Israel, but see this conflict as the means to recapture the U.S. status of global power. If the U.S. can gain control of the entirety of Gulf oil it can use this oil as a political weapons against the entirety of southeast Asia. 

If this war continues for an extended time, the Gulf states are going to be devastated, economically and eventually politically. If Iran can be neutralized and its oil taken under control as in Iraq, libya and Venezuela and in the process the gulf states dismantled, the U.S. can easily obtain control of their assets. This would place the U.S. in a position to control the majority of the oil in the world and insure its dominance for decades into the future. When entertaining this view one sees more sense to this whole affair. 

While all these plans may have high hopes, in war there are often unseen consequences. The first and most important is, will Israel run out of the ability to defend itself before Iran runs out of missles? This is a matter of the often talked about weeks, not months. Most observers agree that Israel, if on the verge of collapse, will resort to Nuclear weapons. At the same time there is also speculation that on the day after  Khomeini died, Iran began finishing the process to manufacture nuclear weapons. This week their parliament is debating exiting the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, which they are a signature. If they do formally exit, it will likely be an indication that they have already manufactured the weapons. There is no question that they have the ability to deliver these weapons.

While many talk of Armageddon, this may be as close as the world has come, so far. While many believe that a nuclear exchange will encompass the whole world, and it would have consequences, it would indeed be Armageddon for the region. After all, the prophecies about this were always about Israel being the center of all this, the center of the world, when written. 




Monday, March 30, 2026

Day 31, Phantom talks, ground troops, no end in sight.

 WAR EXPANDS, ESCALATION TRAP CLOSING

HUNKERING DOWN FOR THE LONG HAUL



While we hear reports of negotiations, there is really no serious negotiations underway, only messaging between third parties. This is likely just a tactic to keep oil prices down and preserve stock market levels. It is now anticipated that ground troops are on the near horizon. It could be expected that as many as 70,000 U.S. troops and contributions from Saudi Arabia and Israel will attempt to open the strait of Hormuz. It may very well result in the complete closing of the strait and may require more troops in the future.

The attacks on Iran continue and we may see retaliation to attacks on the oil producing facilities of the Gulf countries, this will extend the growing oil crisis.

Iran understands very well how any attack on the ground can be attempted, there are only a few options. It can be expected that they welcome this opportunity to inflict casualties on the U.S. It is likely they will allow a certain beachhead and then begin a guerilla type war of attrition. This may be just the beginning of a long escalating conflict.

Israel is in a serious conflict in Lebanon, now near a month, and Netanyahu has vowed to double down. It is reported that they have lost dozens of tanks due to drones and anti-tank weapons and Hezbollah is also expecting to now hunker down for a guerilla type conflict. One can expect that Lebanon will soon look like Gaza.

This weekend the Houthis also announced they are entering the war and may very well close off the Red sea. This will disable oil flowing out of Saudi Arabia through the Red sea.

It appears that this conflict will not be over in weeks.

The Gulf countries are all ruled by authoritarian regimes, with populations having diverse loyalties, an extended war in the region may soon ignite internal conflicts that could very well be infectious and no one can predict that outcome. 

Once ground troops are introduced it is very likely just the beginning of this war.



Friday, March 27, 2026

Day 28, Multiple conflicting and cooperative objectives.

 FICTITIOUS PEACE TALKS TO CALM MARKETS?

HOW LONG CAN ISRAEL CONTINUE?


It is now 4 weeks of war with Iran, it does not appear that the end is anywhere in the immediate future nor is there a concrete indication as to the outcome. According to the U.S. the war has been won and peace talks are underway. Iran denies either of those assertions and continues to control the traffic through the strait of Hormuz. Israel is not making any public statements, but is fighting in Lebanon and continues to attack Iran, while absorbing damage every day. It appears this war may continue for a long time and it may very well be one of those situations with periods of peace and then renewed conflict stretching for years.

Both Israel and the U.S. want regime change in Iran, Israel wants an end to the ability of Iran to pose a threat to Israel. Iran would like an end to Israel's' ability to threaten them. While Iran has sustained very serious damage they seem to have the ability to withstand a lot of punishment, Israel, on the other hand is small and it will soon become evident that they are losing the ability to defend themselves from missile attacks. This, coupled with a frozen economy and signs that the IDF is encountering internal strains from continuous war, may be the first to need to end this conflict.

Israel's long term objective is greater Israel and becoming the dominant power in the region. The U.S. desires to control the oil resources of the region, this war with Iran has in effect been going on since 1979 when Iran nationalized it oil resources. This creates a cooperating objective between Israel and the U.S. If the U.S. can obtain control over Iran's oil it will be a powerful lever over eastern Asia. If it can gain control of all the Gulf oil it may be the key to keeping its dominate position globally. Control of Mideast oil would be a severe blow to the BRICS economic union that threatens to become the dominate global economic power in the future. This is the ultimate goal of the neo con faction in the U.S., Global hegemony.

Of course, Iran desires to maintain its Sovereignty and control its own economic future.  

While, so far, this war is limited to the U.S. Israel and Iran there are massive other interests at work. It can be expected that they will assert those interests if this war shows signs of going against their interests.

While no one is talking about this, the U.S. is limited by its ability to replace all this ordinance and economic realities at home. Israel can not take this punishment for an indefinite time. If Iran can survive as an Sovereign state, it will be a win, at least for now.  



Thursday, March 26, 2026

Day 27, No way out, it will get worse.

 GROUND TROOPS ON THE WAY

ONCE COMMITED, IT WILL BE A LONG WAR



It appears the war crowd has overcome the aversion to ground troops in Iran. If they go this route it can only lead to an escalation and a conflict that will last for months possibly years. Once Trump realizes he cannot save this and his political future is over,  he may very well resolve that his only hope is victory, no matter the cost.

This week is as expected will be pivotal week, if there is escalation, it will plunge the region into a disastrous situation. 

Rumblings from Iraq indicate that forces there are considering entering this war on the side of Iran. 

It is reported that there are serious political situations arising in Bahrain and Kuwait, some report that the leadership has fled to Saudi Arabia. If Saudi Arabia enters this war, Yemen will surely also become active.

Israel is turning southern Lebanon into ruble and are taking serious casualties.

No one knows what the situation is in Israel, but they are under attack daily and their economy and that of the gulf countries is at a standstill. It will be very dangerous if they run out of defensive missiles before Iran runs out of rockets. 

The continuous threats of escalation do not seem to be effective at bringing Iran into submission. The hope of an internal uprising may have been greatly exaggerated.  Iran has a 5000 year history, they do have a proud nationalist culture. In 1941 Germany invaded Russia at a time of the greatest atrocities of Stalin, far more severe than anything that has occurred in Iran. The Germans invaded with 3.8 million German and its allied forces. The Germans had the best trained, and the best equipped army in the world at the time. 2500 aircraft, 3000 tanks but in the end the Russian fought, not for Stalin, but for their country and inevitably destroyed the German army, while losing over 20 million lives.

Behind the scenes there are those rejoicing that they have now discredited Trump and possibly destroyed the movement to reform the U.S. They may have won, but the reform of the country is necessary for it to economically survive. That is a question of mathematics which cannot be overcome with narratives and wishful thinking.



Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Day 26, Phantom talks, the war goes on.

 NO INDICATION OF ANY NEGOTIATIONS

 LOTS OF TALKING, EXCEPT WITH IRAN


While we witnessed a temporary pause in escalation, it was not because there is actual negotiations going on with Iran. Trump claims they have agreed to no nuclear weapons, something that they agreed to in previous real negotiations, but all previous negotiations ended in attacks on Iran. Iran has made it clear that they do not expect to negotiate with the United States again, at least not until their demands are met. Those demands include an end to United States presence in the region, reparations and real non aggression guarantees in the future. Of course, that is a real impasse.

So, the war will continue, Iran will continue regulating traffic through the strait and Trump and Israel will either escalate, bring in ground troops to control the strait or declare victory and go home. One can expect that ground troops are the plan with Marines, Airborne and 2 divisions of regular army amounting to some 70,000 U.S. troops. One would expect that Israel and other gulf nations will be encouraged to put up at least an equal number. 

While we can predict lots of enthusiasm by the war crowd in Washington and Tel Aviv, it will likely result in significant casualties, a complete closing of the strait and the call for more troops or tactical nuclear weapons. Hopefully, this time, Trump will listen to U.S. military and intelligence about best options. This war will not end easily.

The geography and logistics required for an actual ground intervention is all on Iran's side. Any attempt to amass troops and materials anywhere within striking distance will be vulnerable to attack. No one believes this is a good idea.

It seems Iran has now begun to demand tolls for passage through the strait, while a humiliation to the west, it may be the lesser of two evils to the ship owners and insurance companies, the tolls may be less of an issue that the loss of revenue and the costs now being paid without any return.

As I write, I hear that over 100 missiles have been fired toward Israel, some will inevitably get through, and it appears Iran's capabilities have not been extinguished. The clock is ticking until Israel will run out of defensive missiles and that will require either a peace deal or a very dangerous escalation.




Tuesday, March 24, 2026

Is the new policy, 21st century colonialism?

AGE OLD ROUTE TO NATIONAL WEALTH

AUTHORITARIAN STATE AND RULING ELITE



If we look back to history we will see that the most powerful nations simply took what they wanted from those who had what they wanted or needed. Their policy was to conquer another nation and then demand tribute and submission to their power. This was the policy of the Assyrians, Persians, Greeks and the Romans.

The Roman empire eventually perfected that policy and ruled most of the civilized world from 27 BC to 476 AD., in the eastern Byzantine empire it continued until 1453 Ad., It was supplanted by the Ottoman empire which continued until after WW1. The Mongol empire reigned from 1209 until 1480 in the east and parts of Europe and Russia.

They all had very similar strategies, conquer the existing government, appoint a dictator or King, preferably of local descent, and enforce the taking of wealth by military power. 

In Europe, in the early modern period, the Spanish empire at one time controlled all of South America, Central America and the southwest of North America, along with colonies in Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific. it prospered by plundering the gold and silver of its conquests. It was the largest empire at the time and its influence remains today in its former foreign colonies, mostly in cultural and traditions, but not military power. Spanish is the second most dominate language in the world.

France and England were the other powerful empires, with the British empire spanning the complete globe, with very few countries not influenced by the interaction with the British empire.  All these European countries had a monarchial system of feudalism.  The ruling elite came to their position by being descendants of the ruling class. The rest of the population was barred from entering that system and was limited to maintaining the aristocracy. That was the structure of government in all the regimes in Europe. The leaders all intermarried and maintained alliances with each other. One must speculate that the early aristocracy was made up of those with wealth, or power. Once established, it was only by birth or someone who had much wealth or power.

The American revolution was the first challenge to that feudal or Monarchial system, while it could have replicated the feudal system of Europe, it choose a system of individual freedom and liberty for all to pursue their own course without being subject to a King or aristocracy. Many point to slavery as a flaw in that system, but slavery was a institution of the British Empire and to ensure the unity of the colonies during the revolution, it was an issue that would be put off until a future time. 

The United States expanded by the Louisiana purchase, from the French, incorporating the southwest of the continent by the war with Mexico, while it was a war of conquest, it was not an attempt at colonialism. The landowners kept their land and were granted citizenship. The rest of the country was concluded by the Spanish American war and the purchase of Alaska from Russia. The United States was not a colonial power in the image of European colonialism, in fact, the Monroe doctrine helped to persuade the Europeans to end their colonies in the Western Hemisphere. 

In the 19th century the United States refrained from getting involved in European affairs and the country mostly enjoyed peace and built the greatest manufacturing base in history. The country was self sufficient in all the essential needs and enjoyed the ability to improvise, invent and grow dramatically. 

When WW1 broke out, mostly from a complicated system of alliances and tension between those powers, the U.S. was coaxed into intervention in that war, helped by the financial and other interests still exerted on the country by Britain. It is evident that the former colonies of the British empire are still often influenced by the financial and political power based in the city of London, in Britain. The U.S. intervention in that war, which was not started by Germany, but who became the ultimate victim, led to WW2. The war was at a stalemate, neither side advanced for near 2 years and a peace agreement would have eventually been demanded. The U.S. intervention then led to a ceasefire or armistice, troops withdrew, and after troops returned  home a treaty was  signed,  7 months later. Its prohibitive and punishing sanctions on Germany created the eventual rise of Hitler and Nazim in Germany.

After WW1 the British and French took control of any colonies of Germany and proceeded to partition up much of the Ottoman empire, including the middle east and Africa. The British in particular remade borders and boundaries often separating cultural and religious areas in the best interest of keeping these areas divided and often in conflict. They also created new borders and countries like Iraq, and Kuwait, inserted kings and dictators who would facilitate their control, particularly in regards to oil reserves. Many of those borders still exist today and are sources of continuous conflict in Pakistan, Afghanistan, India and the middle east. The British used Famine in India and forced drug importation in China to keep control.

After WW2, with the creation of the United Nations and a system of international law, the outright policy of colonialism became out of favor, but subtle colonialism continued. India gained independence in 1947 and China 1949. Hong Kong became a colony of Britain in 1842 and in 1898 China was forced into accepting a 99 year lease. Hong Kong was partly given Chinese rule in 1997 when that lease expired. The aftermath of WW2 left the French and British unable to militarily control their colonies, independence was given to most countries in Africa and Asia, but subtle colonialism continued by the intelligence operations, economic sanctions and manipulation of currencies and election manipulation to keep leaders in power that would serve their interests. These operations continue today in Africa, the middle east and eastern Europe. Since WW2 and the lack of military power by Europeans, the U.S. has often provided the muscle to keep these colonies in check.

Directly after WW2 and the creation of the CIA, the United States began a policy of intervention in many parts of the world. The overturning of the new democratic government of Iran in 1953 at the behest of British oil interests and the CIA orchestrated Coup in Guatemala in 1954 were the first of near 60 interventions since WW2.  While many of the interventions were excused as part of the cold war and the containment of communism, the increased violence and and use of military power accelerated after the fall of the Soviet Union. 

The conflict in Viet Nam, the former French colony of Indochina from 1887 to 1954, was sold as part of the cold war and the intervention of U.S lasted from 1955 to 1975, claimed millions of Vietnamese lives and 58,000 U.S. servicemen. The war was in fact a civil war fought over the dividing of the country by a longitudinal line established by western powers after WW2. The goal was measured in body counts, rather than territory gained. It caused serious unrest in the U.S. and caused the end of conscription. It was, in effect, partly an attempt of maintaining the colonial system and the fear of communist expansion..  It ushered in a period of severe resistance to further foreign military action in the U.S. 

While the U.S. was restrained in its military intervention after Vietnam, other attempts around the world to throw off colonial rule and exploitation continued in many places.  Iraq had begun to nationalize its oil reserves in 1972, Libya in 1973-1974 and Iran nationalized its reserves in 1979. In 1980 Iraq attacked Iran and Saddam Hussein was supported and supplied by the U.S. and other western powers. This may have been the beginning of using proxy forces to avoid discontent at home for the western powers. Leaders of countries and militia or other groups can be persuaded with promises of territory or wealth. One wonders what promises were given to Saddam Hussein if he would destabilize Iran. The war ran from 1980-1988 and resulted in over 500,000 deaths, Iraq resorted to the use of chemical weapons supplied by the west. 

With the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 George Bush and others in Washington proclaimed that the U.S. was now the only remaining super power. Almost immediately the Iraq war began, after Iraq invaded Kuwait which was at one time part of Iraq and a British creation to control the oil in that region. The first gulf war may have been aided by the U.S. ambassador April Glaspie,  who informed Saddam Hussein that the U.S. would not get involved in land disputes in the middle east. This war destroyed the Iraqi military, but left Saddam Hussein with the agreement that he would allow western access to the oil.

The preparation for the first gulf war required 6 months of staging with troops and resources accumulated in Saudi Arabia, It was a massive collection of 500,000 U.S. troops. It resulted in a permanent military presence in Saudi Arabia. This presence was the impetus for the future attack on the U.S. on  9/11/2001. It was stated by Osama Bin Laden as the primary reason for the attack.  At present the U.S. maintains many bases in the region, a de facto occupation, that is opposed by the majority of the population, but not the leadership.

After the 911 attack the U.S. under George Bush 2 immediately invaded Afghanistan in an attempt to destroy Al Qaeda, much of what was the proxy force supported by the U.S. in the earlier fight with Russia in Afghanistan. This attack targeted Al Qaeda and the Taliban, the ruling party at the time.  This war lasted for 20 years and ended in 2021. The Afghans did not want to be controlled by the Russians or the Americans. Interesting that the Afghans fought 3 wars with the British empire from 1839 to 1919. They have resisted and prevailed against colonial rule for much of their modern life.

In 2003 the narrative about Iraq being involved in 911, which was not true, and the supposed possession of nuclear or chemical weapons, which was also disproven,  preceded an invasion and occupation that lasted until 2011, It resulted in Iraqi oil being placed under the control of the U.S. and the revenue banked in New York. This arrangement continues now for over 20 years. 4500 Americans and over 100,000 Iraqis died. 

In 2011 the Syrian government came under pressure by rebel groups, often financed by the west and the U.S. in particular. U.S. troops took control of the oil and denied access to the oil or the revenue to Syria. In 2020 the U.S. granted the oil concession to Delta Crescent Energy. 

In 2011 a revolution began in Libya with U.S. supported ground troops and NATO supplied air support, the oil resources have since been divided between foreign interests.

In all these conflicts proxy forces were used to assist in destabilizing these countries.

Venezuela has been producing oil since 1908, most of the concessions were gained by foreign interests, Venezuela nationalized its oil in the 1970's and paid 25% of the revenue to the concessions, this continued until 2007 when Hugo Chaves fully nationalized the oil. After sanctions and eventually an embargo in 2026, control the oil was taken  by the United States, the revenue is placed into a bank in New York and Venezuela must petition for needed funds. 

It is clear that the United states controls and reaps the revenue from the oil of Iraq, Syria and Venezuela. Libya oil revenues are shared with European powers. It is not clear who receives the benefit of these funds. I have never seen any accounting or revelation of how this money is dispersed. In fact, I have never heard anyone question this arrangement.

Most all of the contracts by foreign companies resulted in the hosting country receiving about 18 % of the revenue.  This was before  the accounting done by the foreign companies and their governments. Many of these contracts were negotiated from the early 1900's to the 1940's. Attempts to renegotiate often led to military intervention.

In Africa moves to end foreign exploitation continue and we can expect the move to reinstate foreign control of resources.

Looking at the emerging policies of the United States one must speculate that the goal is a new 21st century colonialism. The Russian/Ukraine war, a result of NATO expansion to the doorstep of Russia, which all objective historians and political analysts knew would result in Russia protecting its borders from NATO expansion and missiles. They believed that when Russia invaded they would quickly be crushed by sanctions and combined NATO aid to Ukraine, which is the proxy force used in this war.. The moment when the UK collateralized Ukrainian debt with a 99 year lease on Ukrainian resources and France attempted to do the same and then Trump quickly said me too, revealed what was really going on. Ukraine was only the first step in dismembering Russia and taking control of its resources.

There were indications early in the Trump administration that this was not a replay of the first administration. Things had changed, first we saw a new Department of War, replacing the Department of Defense, an overt indication that preemptive war may be on the horizon. Then we saw the DOGE committee saving $165 billion in the budget only to quickly add it to the defense budget without any accountability.

We listened to Marco Rubio speak in Munich were he blamed others for deindustrialization the U.S. and Europe. He went on that the U.S. would no longer be restrained by international law that has assisted in the west losing its power and wealth. He invited Europe to join the U.S. in rebuilding their power and wealth. The reality is that the new aristocracy sold the country out for the profits they reaped by buying low in the east  and selling high at home. Now that it is becoming unsustainable, a new imperialism or colonialism can keep the money flowing. 

Then we saw indications of annexing Canada and Greenland, both rich in resources without big populations or military power. This was followed with the complete embargo of Venezuela, disposing of their leader and then the taking control of the oil and deciding who it would be sold to and the money deposited again in a bank in New York. Venezuela is forbidden to buy anything that does not come from the United States, Colonialism plain and simple.

Now we have Iran, a country manipulated by the British since 1908. Intervention by the United States in 1953, overthrowing their elected leader and propping up the Shah who was a puppet of the U.S. and Britain. Trump has declared that he will name the next leader in Iran and we can expect their oil revenue will also go into a bank in New York, except for some sharing with Israel.

Israel, whose enormous economic and political influence has been instrumental in all these middle east wars, was the creation of the British Empire, possibly an intentional distraction for all the oil producers of the region. Keep them in constant chaos and war, playing each other off against the U.S. and Israel. One can only speculate that after Iran, the Gulf countries will be next, after being decimated by this war, they will be easy pickings. Israel will then share in the spoils or more likely, having served its purpose will possibly be also expendable. 

Viewing the chaos, interventions, unexplainable decisions begin to become clear when understanding the goal for the future, is a new colonialism.

Colonialism has been the path for wealth for all of recorded history, except for a brief period in the 20th century. Kings are replaced by Statism and the new aristocracy is the monied elite who could be identified as the Epstein class, just as privileged as the aristocracy of the past, not subject to the law or standards expected by the rest. One must wonder what will be the lot of the rest as this new system materializes.






Monday, March 23, 2026

Day 24, The week of decision.

 ULTIMATUMS AND RETALIATION

NETANYAHU ADVOCATES GROUND COMPONENT



This is now the fourth week of this war and it may be the time for pivotal decisions. This weekend, Trump stated it was time for the war to wind down and then hours later issued an ultimatum that the strait of Hormuz must be opened fully within 48 hours, late this evening, or the U.S. and Israel will destroy Iran's electrical power production. Iran, being predictable, threatened to destroy all electric and desalination production in the region.  This is a massive threat of escalation that if acted on will plunge the region into an economic and humanitarian disaster.

It is being reported that Israel is being selective as to how to defend  the continuing missile assaults, in an  attempt to only use interceptors on priority targets. There were damaging hits on Israel's nuclear facility at Dimona. 

Netanyahu stated that a ground component will be necessary to reach their objectives in this war. There was no elaboration on whose ground troops he had in mind and one must wonder if this is connected to Trump's talk of winding down and then escalation.  It is not clear as to who is running this war.

The Strait is open to navigation at the discretion of Iran, Japan and India and others have been given permission to navigate through the strait.

The NATO head has claimed a 22 member group is considering assisting in opening the strait, no timeline or estimation of when has been revealed.

Many are now reporting that the Gerald Ford carrier, which is now in port in Greece, has suffered from internal sabotage of clogged sewage system and then fires that required 30 hours to extinguish. Having experienced extended times at sea many years ago, it is true that it is physiologically very taxing and morale sinks very low and grumbling and frustration can become rampant. Just the strain of extended time at sea, coupled with possibly divided support for the war will require a complicated test of leadership. 

Decisions in the next few days will be pivotal on the direction of this war. There is no end in sight, it is indeed becoming a war of attrition. The economic damage to the whole region may take years to recover. The global damage will take at the least many months, that is all without further escalation. 

Note, Trump has postponed impending attacks due to claimed negotiations, Iran denies any negotiations in progress and is backed up by most knowledgeable analysts.

 

Friday, March 20, 2026

Day 21, more crises developing by the day.

 GROUND TROOPS, STRANDED SAILORS 

ESCALTION TRAP UNDERWAY


This is the beginning of the fourth week of this war and it will be a week of expected escalation and multiplying of unintended consequences. All oil tankers that left the region at the start of the war have now reached their destination. There will be very little arriving from here on out and if it opened up tomorrow it would take as much as a month to get oil moving.

The attacks by Israel and then the retaliation by Iran on Gas facilities is estimated to reduce the flow of LNG for near 5 years. This will translate into higher prices for years to come. 

To keep the flow of oil and gas moving most countries are dipping into their strategic reserves and the U.S. has actually removed the sanctions on not only Russian oil, but Iranian oil. Iranian oil exports have actually risen since this war began. 

Israeli attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, may now cause Iran to retaliate by hitting the nuclear desalination plants in Israel and the gulf. If these plants actually go off line, it will require the population to flee the region. There is not enough natural fresh water to support the populations.

There are 3200 ships stranded in the Persian gulf with 20,000 crewmembers. These ships are running out of food, water is at a minimum and it reaching a humanitarian crisis for these sailors. Most gulf countries will not allow them to dock, so they are anchored sitting still in the gulf. 

It is now assumed that there is a growing possibility of a ground attack in some way, either an attempt to capture Kharg island or secure the strait of Hormuz. It is acknowledged by military experts, that it will not be an easy operation. This would be a perfect time for Iran to allow those 3200 ships that are not loaded to exit the strait of Hormuz. This would certainly complicate any military operations for several weeks.

This is the week were the complications of this war are going to become increasingly evident. Prices have risen, but now it may begin to get out of control. All the good reports aside, Israel is going to be experiencing all kinds of problems very soon. Their economy is at a standstill and desperation will likely lead to escalation.  There is no end in sight and every day will reveal a new crisis.




Thursday, March 19, 2026

Day 20, Up the escalation ladder.

 ISRAEL BOMBS IRAN'S GAS FIELDS

IRAN RETALIATES AGAINST QATARI GAS FIELDS


Yesterday, Israel bombed Iran's gas fields, part of the largest gas field in the world, that is shared with Qatar. Iran vowed revenge by giving notice that they would respond by attacking oil and gas facilities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait and advising evacuation of specific sites, they then hit the Qatari gas facilities and it experienced serious damage, they also inflicted damage on the other sites. They clearly stated that these countries will be targets as long as they are providing the U.S. and Israel with bases used to attack Iran.

Trump warned Iran that if they persisted in targeting oil or gas facilities, the U.S. would totally destroy Iranian gas fields and that he would bar Israel from more such attacks. Israel had earlier struck major oil facilities near Tehran. It is clear that Israel is not under the control of the U.S. and has separate and distinct goals.

Israel also received increased attacks that left damage all across the country in retaliation of further assassinations and hitting the gas fields.

Gas prices immediately soared in the UK and EU and will inevitably raise prices worldwide. This war is on the verge of going completely out of control with the possibility of major power intervention.

In yesterday's intelligence briefing it was clear that the Senators wanted those questioned to answer, if they informed the president of the risks of this war. All those questioned failed to answer in one way or another. It may be that Trump's distrust of the U.S. intelligence community allowed him to depend on intelligence provided by Israel and Netanyahu. This was demonstrated by the resignation of Joe Kent. 

It is becoming clear that this war will continue for some time and that it is going to have long lasting global implications. Only Trump can end this war and it is also clear to do that he will appear to have backed down.  Trump is now caught in this war trap with no way to get out without suffering political damage and disappointing Israel. It is without a doubt the biggest challenge to his presidency and is now being tested in a way that cannot be evaded by narratives and denials. 

We are going to see if he will find some morality or principles that will allow him to end this disaster before it takes down the world economy and possibly more.



Wednesday, March 18, 2026

Day 19, settling into War of attrition.

 WHAT NOW, ESCALATION ONLY OPTION

ESCALTION THEN RETALIATION



This war is now in need of a new strategy, as it heads to the end of the third week. The U.S. and Israel both continue to bomb, the U.S. looking for military targets and Israel bent on assassination of anyone who would be a possible negotiator. It appears that this war is not a coordinated attack with common goals.  While denying it, Trump has attempted to open negotiations numerous times with third party intermediaries, he would like an off ramp. It is no secret that Israel wants to destroy Iran as viable country. Israel wants Iran to look like Libya or Gaza, a failed state unable to offer any opposition. It is clear there is no end to this war in sight. 

While much is made of the closed Hormuz straits, ships are moving out of the Persian gulf, not too many moving westward. Iran is controlling this traffic and it seems no countries have volunteered to help force it out of Iran's control. Negotiations are ongoing between shipping players and Iran to get permission to allow safe passage on an individual basis. Iran has shipped more oil this month than last month.

Israel is under extreme censorship, any photos or videos of damage will result in arrest. Damage is occurring every day, but no one can estimate how much.

Iran continues to strike U.S. military assets in the gulf countries.

The resignation of Joe Kent who served 11 tours in Mideast wars and whose wife, also a soldier,  was killed in the region. Trump best to not malign this man, this action by him will undoubtedly cost him much of his future. Some believe he may be the just the first of many and wonder what has happened to Tulsi Gabbard and other Trump supporters who desired an end to wars of choice.

It is still Israel that is in the predicament of having a closed economy, a dependence on a limited supply of interceptors and an eventual problem of recruitment and public opinion.  

The pressure on Trump to escalate this war with ground troops is going to grow by the day. While it would be costly for Iran, it would undoubtedly result in serious casualties for the U.S. Once engaged, it then could become similar to Ukraine in reverse. While much is made about the division in the Muslim world between Shia and Sunni, a ground war in the region will bring volunteers from many places. Gulf countries will have serious political problems at home if they side with the U.S. and Israel. While Muslims have disagreements between themselves none of them have warm feelings for Israel and the U.S.  A ground war could be the most unifying event for Muslims in decades.



Monday, March 16, 2026

Day 17, Trump asks for help, Iran declares strait open.

 MARINE ASSAULT GROUP ON THE WAY

NO END IN SIGHT, PREPARE FOR LONG CONFLICT



Over the weekend, we see that Trump has called on other nations to send ships to help in keeping the strait of Hormuz open. At the same time Iran has declared that the strait is open to all,  except for their enemies and their allies. Chinese and Indian ships are being allowed through the strait. Iran has made it clear that prior permission is granted on an individual basis and all ships will be considered, except for U.S. and Israeli destined ships. U.S. allies ships, European,  Japan, South Korean will also be granted permission if they are paying for their oil in Yuan and not dollars. This would apply to ships carrying oil originating in the gulf countries. So, would it better to send ships to take control of the strait by force or ask permission under Iran's terms, that will now be the dilemma.

The U.S. has stated that a Marine assault force is in route to the region, most military experts believe their use would be a very risky operation and would undoubtedly result in serious casualties. If this is used to capture Kharg island it could cut off Iranian exports or it could be used to interdict oil tankers after they pass through the strait. Either action would most likely result in Iran damaging the gulf countries ability to produce and transport oil.  The U.S. may find this acceptable in that their more strategic goal is to do damage to China's economy and possibly that of other southeast Asian countries, all part of BRICS economic group.

While accusations of Russian assistance to Iran is being claimed, it is most likely that China has provided the use of their GPS system and providing targeting to Iran. This was widely known for some time, but one wonders if this is still an attempt to divide China and Russia in some way.

Iran has consistently fired 20 to 50 ballistic missiles every day, with increasing percentages of hits in both the Gulf bases and Israel.

Contrary to U.S. claims, they are not flying over Iran, the attacks are coming from missiles in the Gulf countries, stand off missiles fired from the air outside of Iranian air space and tomahawk missiles fired from naval assets. All this ordinance is in short supply. It may take several years to replace the ordinance being used. 

The economies of Iran, Israel, and the gulf countries are mostly at a standstill. The economic consequences will be huge and long lasting.

While it is true Israel pushed for this war, it is not all about Israel, Iran is a pivotal part of the BRICS economic group and Russia and China have a serious interests in Iran maintaining its sovereignty. They can be expected to not allow the total destruction of Iran.

Speculation about the death of Netanyahu and Ben Ge-vir is all over the place. There are denials, but no sightings for days. One can expect that if they are alive we will see them soon.

Iran has made it clear that they have not asked for a ceasefire or any negotiations. They have actually laid out a list of conditions for a lasting agreement that at this time will never be accepted by the U.S.  

This war look's like it will continue for many weeks, if not months.





Friday, March 13, 2026

Day 14, Iran retaliates to every escalation.

 ISRAEL EARLY WARNING DOWN TO 90 SECONDS

TARGETS EXPAND TO WATER, OIL PRODUCTION AND BANKS



2 weeks into this war and it does not appear to be near an end. The strait is still impassable unless receiving permission from Iran. Ships must have prior individual permission. More refineries and other production facilities in the gulf are shutting down as they are soon out of storage space.  It could take several weeks to restart many of these facilities. 

There is still oil in transit as it takes from 19 to 35 days for oil to reach Europe. 20 to 30 days to Japan. The real crunch will begin in another 2 weeks, and even if open, could be critical for a month after that. There is going to be a severe oil related economic situation within the next 2 weeks. Today's Crude futures  price is at $95. Fertilizer price, made from natural gas, has risen substantially and there could be shortages.

Iran continues to hit U.S. bases and Israel. It has launched its 44th wave of attacks on Israel and due to elimination of much of the radar in the gulf their early warning is now down to 90 seconds which essentially means it is best to remain in shelters  at all times. Hezbollah also launched 100 missiles into Israel yesterday.  A larger percentage of these missiles are reportedly now hitting as the loss of radar has hampered effectiveness of defenses.

Iran seems to be now reciprocating attacks. If their oil facilities are attacked they hit oil facilities in the gulf. If their water desalination facilities, they respond by attacking such facilities in the gulf or Israel. They have also stated that are going to begin targeting western banks and investment facilities. Their warnings seem to usually be followed by real attacks.

So far, the strategy seems to be to keep increasing the bombing until Iran capitulates. Can the bombing be increased? While it is claimed to be unlimited, I doubt there is any such thing as unlimited. It now seems to be a war of attrition, and existential threat to Iran's survival, but not the U.S.  We can expect that within 2 weeks serious economic consequences will be reality and increase after that. Is there a plan B?



Thursday, March 12, 2026

Day 13, Declare Victory or double down?

THIS IS WHAT A WAR TRAP LOOKS LIKE 

LOOSING FACE IS A HARD OPTION



We have heard that this war is almost over. We have heard that there are no more targets left to hit. We have heard that if Iran doesn't capitulate they will bombed like never before. 

Yesterday, Iran launched wave 40 of missile attacks on Israel that lasted over 5 hours. It is reported, but not verified by Israel, that there were many missile impacts. At least 3 ships were damaged near the strait of Hormuz and contrary to all threats it is still not allowing commerce through this vital passageway. 

The clock is ticking until this war will begin to have global economic consequences. The Oil futures price today is $91, gas in Pa, is now $3.80, Diesel $5.19 and Home heating oil $4.80. If no resolution of this war, it will go much higher and begin to have domestic economic consequences.

Implications are far greater in some other parts of the world and the possibility of more players entering this conflict is growing.

The leader of the Iraqi Kurds has stated that they are not guns for hire and it is not their war. 

Trump has been advised by some Senators and military to declare victory and end this war. Israel can not take daily punishment and a dysfunctional economy forever. No one has proposed a plan that will insure safe passage through the strait of Hormuz. Iran has publicly stated that there will be no new negotiations or end to this war unless their demands are met.

One can assume that Netanyahu understood the psychology of Donald Trump very well and knew that if this war started, Trump would want to end as a winner, any backdown would look like weakness and have global and domestic implications. We can only assume that we will soon see a doubling down of this conflict and even the possibility of introducing ground troops to secure the strait of Hurmuz. This will result in many casualties and the need for further escalation.

At the same time Israel will be eventually be put into the position of facing its doom and as it has done numerous times in the past, threaten the use of nuclear weapons.  It could be expected that this critical period will come in just a few weeks.

It takes a lot of humility and real courage to change course, it will be the ultimate test, so far, of Trumps presidency.






Wednesday, March 11, 2026

Day 12, Trump, Mariners have no guts!

 WHY IS EVERYONE STILL JUSTIFYING WAR?

EVERYDAY BOASTS OF MORE DEATH AND DESTRUCTION



In press conferences and even talk radio there is still endless diatribe about justification for this war. Glenn Beck has gone as far as to label this war as a fight against the Anti-Christ, an all out war of good against evil. Hegseth and others justification is a moving target that we have all have heard, from Iran's nuclear weapons, to imminent attack from Iran. The attempt to make this a religious war is by far, the most desperate and dangerous aspect of their justification. Symptoms of Anti-Christ behavior are evident in many places. In fact, in everyone who supports this war. Those who wanted this war, have it, why the continuous demonization in justification? Of course we know why, there is no popular support for this war, and as it goes on it will decline even more.

Yesterday, Trump accused Merchant Mariners of having no guts, for not moving ships through the strait of Hormuz, I did not hear of any U.S. warships moving through the strait, does his accusations apply to them, he can order them to do so. Maybe Trump or Netanyahu should show them how it's done and pilot the first ship through. Merchant Mariners risk their life every voyage in the the dangers of ocean navigation, these seaman are from every country in the world, often from numerous countries on the same ship. This is not their war, and if it continues, many will be looking for ways to get off those ships stranded in the Persian gulf and go home.

While reports out of Israel are nonexistent, it is clear that most all the radar facilities in the gulf region have become non operational, as well as much of the communications in the region. Early warnings of incoming missiles is now just minutes before impact in Israel. It seems radar from NATO bases in Turkey are substituting for the lost radars. 

Daily reports from Hegsteth and Trump threaten that everyday the attacks on Iran will be bigger than the last. One has to wonder how these munitions will be replaced and resupplied. Yesterday was the 37th wave of missiles fired by Iran, they are fewer, but bigger and more accurate.

While the crude oil price has stabilized around $85 a barrel there are actual shortages and rationing in Australia and anticipated similar results in the EU. 

It seems this war is settling into a war of attrition, limited real information being available, other than the threats of escalation and cheering on. I suspect that Israel may be the first to find the war no longer sustainable.




Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Day 11, Is Trump looking for an offramp?

 IT WILL TAKE 3 TO TANGO

IRAN MAY BE COMMITTED TO LONG TERM RESOLUTION



In last nights press conference, Trump indicted that the war was mostly won. He listed all the destruction in Iran and claimed that they have little ability to continue the war. It sounded like he would be willing to end this, even without surrender from Iran.

It may be no coincidence that it is day 11, a time that will require resupply of Navy ships, possibly in India, since the gulf bases are not functional. a possible looming shortage of interceptors, and the continued disruption of fuel through the strait of Hormuz. The forecast of a long drawn out affair could be lethal to this President's domestic agenda. A victory for his enemies in the bureaucratic state and his opponents in both parties. 

For one, he cannot quit unless Israel agrees, and they may soon do just that. Then he has the psychopathic bloodthirsty neocons led by Lindsey, "kill them all" Graham, who seems almost orgasmic at the hope of death, blood and destruction. This seems to be the case of Benjamin Netanyahu as well. Then if he convinces these factions, he has to convince Iran that it is their best interest to quit now and fight again in the future, when Israel and the U.S. can rearm, and resupply. 

Trump has proposed several ceasefires and has been rejected, I suspect Iran now believes that if we are to die, it might as well be now. It may be their last chance to at least survive as a country and they will be able to cause lots of suffering for their attackers.




Monday, March 9, 2026

Day 10, Economic consequences begin.

 WILL OIL MARKETS TRIGGER GLOBAL RECESSION?

RESTORING TRAFFIC THROUGH THE STRAIT MAY NOW BE PRIORITY


It is getting increasingly difficult to understand exactly how things are going in the war, as all nations involved have clamped down on videos and reporting. People are actually being arrested for taking videos. It is also reported that phone communication originating in the U.S. to Iran has been cut off, but communication from Iran to the U.S. is still open.

Devastating attacks on Tehran are ongoing and in the latest escalation the U.S. or Israel has attacked Iran's oil infrastructure with oily black clouds now spreading in the region and some say will travel as far as China. If Iran now retaliates against oil infrastructure it could soon be a serious environmental catastrophe.

It seems Iran is still focusing on the U.S. military infrastructure with continued attacks on bases and radar installations. Attacks on Israel continue, but seem to be less in number but more continual to keep everyone hunkered down in shelters. The economy in Israel is most likely near a standstill. Netanyahu has forbidden all attempts of citizens and duel citizens to leave the country.

At this hour Crude oil futures are at $101. per barrel. Fridays close was $92 and it had risen to over $110 for a period over the weekend. The prices in the U.S. for gas and Fuel oil will reset this afternoon and can be expected to rise substantially. Gas rose 30 cents last week and will probably rise more than that this week. While the U.S. produces much crude it depends on foreign refining capacity as there are fewer refiners still running in the U.S.  Prices of refined products have skyrocketed particularly for aviation fuel. Fertilizer prices have already risen by 70 %, complicating farmers plans for the spring planting. We can expect that all prices will start rising significantly in the near future.

We may expect a shifting of priorities from decimating Tehran to efforts to secure passage through the strait of Hormuz. It could be a very costly engagement, while Iran is allowing some ships to pass, an actual military effort to open, could result in being physically blocked for many months. I would expect this has to be opened or a global financial downturn is imminent.

The N word is increasingly being used either from a frustrated U.S. or a panicked Israel. One wonders if there is the stable leadership available in either country to resist that move. The possibility of the expansion of this war to include much of Europe and then Russia and China increases with every escalation.