Trump says done with MOU, but!

 U.S. RETALIATES FOR IRANIAN ATTACKS IN STRAIT

NEGOTIATIONS WILL CONTINUE 

 

During a press conference with the NATO head, Trump stated he was done with MOU with Iran and continued to label the Iranians as untrustworthy, despicable and that he doesn't like them. While all that may be true, we can expect negotiations to continue and that an all out breakout of war is unlikely.  In fact, the strikes on ships is a form of negotiation by Iran in making it clear that they do not expect to give up control of the strait of Hormuz. 

 

Rutte, the head of NATO praised Trump in a slavish manner in any way he could, hoping to gain support for the war in Ukraine, while Trump kept bringing up Greenland, desiring NATO support for its acquisition. Maybe Trump would support a trade of U.S. support in Ukraine for Greenland? 

 

Trump dismissed Netanyahu's desire that Trump not supply weapons to Turkey, now on Israels list of possible targets in the future. 

 

Everyone wants U.S. military support for their ambitions, support that is now stretched way beyond its real capabilities, both financially and materially.

 

While many still want a rekindled war with Iran it is increasingly unlikely as oil reserves globally continue to decline and Iran is unified in its position as never before. A return to all out war would lead to global economic crisis and also a possible negative military  result. It may just fester on as is for the foreseeable future. 

 

While the Ukraine war continues, it is unlikely that support for this war is without limits, even for the European NATO members.  We can expect no conclusions to be made anywhere for the rest of the summer.

 

 

 

 

Big questions about Charlie Kirk trial.

 FAMILY SAVED SUSPECTS LIFE

BULLET, RIFLE AND SUPPOSED CONFESSION 

 

The trial for the alleged killer of Charlie Kirk is now about to begin. While details about the evidence are being suppressed, as is the often the case, what is known raises a lot of questions. 

 

First the video that is supposed to show the shooter exit the the top of the building and is supposed to show a rifle, does not such thing, there is no rifle that is visible. We are also told that the rifle was disassembled and brought to the scene inside the pants of the suspect. This is a Mauser 98 with a scope mounted, very unlikely, especially for a thin person in jeans and shirt.

 

Then the bullet supposedly fired from a 30-06 at less than 150 yards.  The big question is not the shot, a relatively easy shot from a rested position, but the bullet failed to exit, almost an impossibility, unless it it some kind of special projectile. Slow motion video of a soft ball bulge on impact but a failure to exit is incomprehensible from any normal store bought ammunition for a 30-36. I have observed 100's of deer shot with everything from  6mm to large weapons and it is unlikely that any round from a 30-06 would not exit were Kirk was shot. In fact, videos of the entrance wound appear a lot large than .308 diameter more like 45 or larger. We are already hearing about strong bones and bullets do things that are not calculable, in fact, that is just the opposite, bullets of certain weight and density do very predictable things. Supposedly the empty case was still in the rifle along with other unfired rounds,  they can be compared.

 

We never heard about the diversions by several people in the audience during the shooting even claiming that they had shot Kirk.

 

Then there is the supposed emailed confession that seems to be very vague and its source is questionable.

 

We can speculate that his suspects family, by convincing him to turn himself in, have saved his life, at least to have a trial. It seems the suspect has not spoken or answered any questions, we can assume we will get to hear the other side of this story. It will be interesting to hear the explanations for these questions. 

 

If anyone in this jury has any serious experience with firearms  it is very possible to not get a guilty verdict in this trial. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Russia accelerates in Ukraine.

 RUSSIA ADVANCING ON ALL FRONTS

NATO MONEY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH 

 

It is clear that the Russia has stepped up its pressure in Ukraine. It started with massive aerial  attacks in most of eastern Ukraine, has put out of commission most of the gas stations, cut off energy supplies to Karkiv and is advancing at a quickening pace in every area of conflict. It is becoming clear that the internal pressure on Putin to get this conflict over with is having an effect.

 

While Ukraine continues to offer strong resistance, without some sort of game changing situation it now looks like it's days are numbered , even though this could go on for many more months. 

 

We can expect that this week's NATO meeting will be dominated by the Ukraine situation, we can expect to see calls for more money and more weapons, but what Ukraine needs is more manpower, it does seem that Ukraine is running out of manpower. One would expect that even mercenary soldiers may be hard to come by at this point.

 

While the EU countries continue to talk about war with Russia and increase spending on weapons, they have little in the way of manpower. We can expect that attempting to raise an army will be politically difficult with the fragile political environment. They also want a commitment from the United States before they attempt any intervention in Ukraine. The U.S. still has troops in the middle east and  a shortage of munitions, so it is doubtful that any real commitment is possible. 

 

It also appears that there are no real negotiations possible, it seems that most of the good will in negotiations in Ukraine have evaporated. it will most likely be some sort surrender that will end this war. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After 250 years, U.S. still best.

 BRAVE WISE MEN CHANGED HISTORY

OVERTURNED THE EXISTING ORDER

 

The men who declared independence from the feudal order of the British Empire started a world wide revolution that attempted to change the existing world order.  That spirit is still necessary as it continues to fight many of the same forces that still exist today. 

 

We have to conclude that the experiment that started those many years ago has been successful, the U.S. is still the best place for individuals to pursue their dreams and use their talents as free individuals.   

 

The constitution and the bill of rights is a remarkable document, that while continually under assault, it is still standing. These documents need the steadfast awareness of the citizens to make sure the spirit is preserved for the next generation.

 

We would do well to remember the admonitions of those brave men to beware of foreign entanglements and alliances that can sap the strength and vitality of the nation.  Those same issues are still with us today. 

 

The philosophy of "vote your pocketbook"  is a great danger to the nation as we have seen the results of massive deficit spending, something that the founders would never had tolerated. 

 

While the nation still stands, it has perils both from outside and inside that only a well informed and active citizenship can insure its continued existence. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Supreme court's final decisions for the term.

 ONE IS REAFFIRMING STATE RIGHTS

ONE RULING ON PRECEDENT

 

The ruling concerning trans male athletes from participating in women's sports was a classic states rights ruling. It certainly was not an issue when the constitution was written and states rights is perfect for covering such matters.  It is probably the best ruling that the court could have agreed upon.

 

The birthright citizenship ruling seems to have been based on many years of precedent even if it is a bad precedent.  The 14th amendment was enacted in 1868 and was the direct result of abuses concerning freed slaves who often were denied citizenship in some states. The amendment ruled that everyone born in the U.S. was automatically a citizen. There was an ambiguous line stating, "subject to the jurisdiction of the U.S" The amendment clearly disqualified children born to foreign diplomats and occupying armies. 

 

In today's world, recognizing anyone born in the country even if here on vacation or illegally is not in the spirit of the original amendment.  This amendment was written way before the era of financial benefits linked to citizenship and is not practiced by any other country in the world. We can assume that court feared the complications of any change that has been practiced for near 200 years. It could have been possible for a  clarifying  ruling that exempted all before the present date from losing their citizenship. 

 

I suspect that this may not be the end of this effort to change birthright citizenship, either by amendment or another attempt with different court. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Is Bibi coming to sell his latest war plan?

 NETANYAHU MAKES 7TH TRIP TO WASHINGTON

IRAN HOLDING FIRM ON DEMANDS 

 

It is being reported that Israel's Netanyahu will be meeting with Trump today at 11 am.  The precedent seems to be that some sort of war usually follows. It is not clear who has called for this meeting, but we can assume it has to do with the Iran conflict. 

 

The United States has now had a large number of forces in the region for over 1 year with no end in sight. We hear from those who want escalation and those who want a negotiated settlement.  The dilemma is that Trump agreed to Iran's framework, but hopes to win a victory at the negotiating table. It seems the agreeing part was just an effort to get the strait open and then negotiate a better deal.  Iran is holding firm, desiring a long term agreement that will avoid renewed war in a few  months. We can assume that Netanyahu is planning war, not any deal. 

 

Trump is in a hard place, Iran has demonstrated that they are willing to resume hostilities if necessary and any escalation on their infrastructure will be followed by damage to Persian  gulf infrastructure that will have dire consequences for the world economy and the U.S. economy. Iran is also demanding Israel withdraw from Lebanon, we can expect that will be on the agenda today.

 

Iran is making it clear that they plan on continuing some sort of control on the transit through the strait. it no longer is a toll, but an environmental fee that will include insurance to cover any damages from spills and other related damage to the waterway. It seems Oman is quietly willing to take part in this joint venture.

 

I suspect most shippers find such a fee a small part of their business, and any guarantee of safe passage will be acceptable.  Of course, we can assume Trump still wants to control the Iranian oil and even the other Persian gulf oil resources. There is little room for compromise by either side and everyday the risk and costs are rising.

 

I doubt that Bibi is bringing any positive solutions with him today. 

 

Update. It seems Netanyhou did not come to the U.S. yesterday, sorry this column was in error. 

 

 

 

 

Two wars in Ukraine?

 INTENSITY INCREASES ON LAND AND IN THE AIR

IT WILL LIKELY INCREASE 

 

While most of the focus has been on the conflict in the Persian gulf, the war in Ukraine has increased in intensity and violence.  For several months Russia has increased the air assaults on Ukraine and Ukraine has responded by hitting Russian oil infrastructure. The Ukrainians have been able to disrupt supplies in Crimea and in the eastern portions of Ukraine as well as hit targets far into Russia. Much has been made of these attacks and some even suggest Ukraine is winning this conflict. 

 

While it has been effective against Russia, the other war, the war on the ground has not changed direction. Russia has been advancing even though Ukraine makes attempts to counter attack and sometimes moves forward the fighting has been intense, but Russia is still moving and taking village after village and has in effect cut off Karkiv from its supply routes, it has steadily moved south in the Sumy region and has advanced all along the battle line.

 

While air attacks on Russia have been damaging, Ukraine cannot follow up with any ground operations. The attacks only hope to weaken Russian morale and keep NATO nations support from diminishing. Ukraine's manpower shortage worsens by the day and as Russia opens new fronts, their ability to fill the holes is becoming unsustainable. Ukraine continues to offer formidable resistance, but their is not really any change in their favor for the long term.

 

 

 

 

 

Iran unwilling to cede control of Strait.

 NUCLEAR ENRICHMENT NO LONGER AN ISSUE

FAST MOVING NEGOTIATIONS EXCEPT FOR STRAIT 

 

It seems there is now a ceasefire within the ceasefire as negotiations resume. The future of the strait of Hormuz seems to now be the major controversy. The 14 point agreement stated that the strait would be open by both parties for the next 60 days, then an arrangement would be made between Oman and Iran whose territorial waters overlap in the strait of Hormuz.  At the same time, messaging coming out of Washington is that the strait will be either opened or controlled by the U.S.  

 

There is also some controversy  about the returned Iranian assets, it seems the U.S. wants to put controls on the money that it could only be spent in the U.S., terms that are unacceptable to Iran. 

 

It seems the nuclear issue is to revert back to the same as it was before the war. Iran would limit its enrichment to what is needed for commercial uses and dilute or cede the enriched fuel. all this was agreed to before the war,  inspections would verify compliance.

 

The reality is that Iran, by controlling the strait, and they just made that clear last week, can disrupt oil flow instantly, giving them enormous leverage.  It is also clear that taking control away from them is difficult, costly or possibly impossible and the longer it is not clearly open the clock on global economic damage is ticking. 

 

It is in the best interest of Iran that the strait is safe and open as it will prosper by its own flow of oil and possibly by some sort of regulation maintained by them and Oman.  Many claim that the strait is regulated by international law, but there is some controversy as the territorial waters of Oman and Iran actually cover the entire width of the strait. The U.S. has also made it clear that they will not be handicapped by international  law, so I guess possession is a powerful position.

 

Many advocate a resumption of the war, but it still is not an easy choice, as Iran has the ability to destroy gulf oil infrastructure and keep the strait closed, both a strong incentive to avoid more all out war.  

 

 

 

 

 

Israel believes war will restart after midterms.

 TRUMP NARRATIVE DOES NOT MATCH ACTIONS

HARD TO PREDICT WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN 5 MONTHS 

 

Watching news and other media out of Israel it seems Israel is not ready for anything short of the destruction of Iran. It also seems they are convinced Trump will restart the war after the midterms. While Trump could be signaling that intention and also often threatening that action it may be unlikely that will happen. We can assume Trump will not restart a war with Iran unless there is plan to actually accomplish some real goals. It is unlikely he will do a redo on Netanyahu and Mossad's assumptions.

 

That and who knows what will be the outcome of those elections and who knows what other crisis is on the horizon, there are many possibilities. There are multiple crisis brewing, and even with keeping the control of congress, another war will become hard to sell.  I am beginning to believe that this was the only attempt on Iran we will see in Trump's presidency. The supporters of war with Iran may have to groom the president for war with Iran.

The increasing quest for recurring income.

 THE EFFORT TO BLEED CONSUMERS REGULARLY

MOVING AWAY FROM OWNING ANYTHING 

 

If you are paying attention, it is becoming clear that the new trend is to have consumers no longer buy anything that does not have a lifetime of continued payments attached. In effect, big business is on a road of demanding continued payments for the use of software, or subscriptions attached to new cars or other major appliances. This is often labeled as computer upgrades etc. Many people who do not keep track of their finances fail to realize they are often paying monthly fees for many things they either no longer own or services they no longer use. 

 

In the pharmaceutical business the focus has been on maintenance drugs, drugs that they expect the patient will use regulatory for the rest of their live. This often results in actual cures or 1 time prevention drugs put aside in favor of recurring revenue. 

 

Farmers  lobby congress to intervene in the production of farm equipment that is increasingly computerized, require monthly subscription fees for upgrades and often requiring propitiatory software to diagnose the problems causing long delays and often costing them time in harvesting of crops.  The revenue of John Deere has fallen near 50 % as farmers have rebelled and moved to manufacturers who are still making more maintainable equipment. 

 

Microsoft, the premier software company that has historically had a near monopoly on operating systems installed on most computers is now also feeling push back. Lenovo the largest by volume producer of computers has now made Linux the default operating system., Microsoft is now a option with added fee. Hewlett Packard the second largest producer is now not including Operating systems in their computers they are now an option. Much has to do with Windows 11  which requires new hardware making many good computers instantly obsolete and it seems Microsoft is planning on requiring monthly subscriptions with fees for cloud storage and software rental. 

 

The auto manufacturers are attempting in going down the same road with monthly subscriptions, proprietary software to cut out small repair shops and an endless costs of up grades and factory or dealer maintenance. 

 

This trend is leaving a door open for new  producers to offer simpler, less complicated equipment that the customer can own outright and have more control of their equipment and their lives.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Will Ukraine soon overshadow Iran?

 NEGOTIATIONS MOVING FORWARD WITH IRAN

AS EUROPE PREPARES FOR WAR RUSSIA CONTEMPLATES RESPONSE

 

Contrary to the bluster out of Washington, the talks in Switzerland seem to moving forward steadily. We can assume that half of the frozen assets of Iran have been returned. It is reported that the IAEA  representatives are joining the discussions which indicates that the framework for nuclear inspections is now being negotiated, this was considered to not happen until much further along.  Sanctions on Iranian oil sales have been lifted. All this indicates that these negotiations are moving forward and may be concluded well before 60 days. Of course, one can never predict exactly what will happen tomorrow.

 

The Ukraine conflict is now in the process of hot escalation, while Russia continues to incrementally advance on the battlefield, Ukraine, with use of drones, has been increasing attacks on Russian infrastructure. It is having an effect that Russia can no longer ignore. The supply of western supplied drones has increased dramatically in numbers and quality. It seems they have been supplied by the UK, Germany and the U.S. The sentiment in Russia is growing for some sort of attacks on NATO manufacturing to send a message that Russia understands this is a NATO/Russian conflict. It could be a conventional attack which many suspect will require a conventional response in retaliation, this will then set the stage for nuclear retaliation. 

 

One has to wonder if the expedited deal with Iran is influenced by the expected critical escalation in Ukraine. While the Iran conflict created a major economic crisis, the conflict in Ukraine could become far more dangerous, very quickly. The major NATO members have been increasingly talking of war with Russia and now they are considering converting  their manufacturing assets to war production. This is also being considered in the U.S. 

 

Whether it is real or an attempt at intimidation, the net result could be the same. Russia will not submit to this intimidation and the outcome could be a quick escalation to all out European war.  This, of course, would soon engulf the entire globe. 

 

It does appear that a pivotal point is approaching in Europe and, so far, little real diplomacy is to be seen. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lying about the Iran situation is having consequences.

 REASONS WHY NEGOTIATION IS THE BEST OPTION

IT WILL BE REVEALED IN TIME

 

Many are shocked that the U.S. would go down the negotiation route especially when the outline of negotiations will allow Iran to survive, sell oil and potentially prosper in the future. It appears they will retain the right to nuclear enrichment for commercial reasons and submit to inspections. The sanctions on them will be lifted for the first time in 47 years. Their frozen assets will be given back. Why is this happening ,when it has been reported that Iran has been decimated, their military no longer exists and they are on the so called ropes. Misinformation about this conflict, in an attempt to call the result a win has now come back to cause wide spread disbelief as to why this is the best option. Here are some of the reasons.

 

1. Both the U.S. and Israel were dangerously short of air defense interceptors. There has been a coordinated effort to minimize the damage caused by Iran's ballistic missiles on U.S. bases and Israel.

 

2. The attacks on Iran were possible using stand off missiles fired from Naval assets and air to ground missiles fired outside Iranian air space. While huge numbers of standard bombs are available they would require aircraft to fly over Iran and contrary to the narrative, Iran never turned on their air defenses ,understanding it would make them vulnerable to stand off weapons. The U.S. was not flying over Iran. If we recall the missing pilot saga, no longer talked about, it seems this was covert action to possibly retrieve the nuclear material, it ended badly, with the loss of 2 fighter jets, 4 helicopters and 2 other aircraft, the retrieved ordinance officer is still not identified, possibly because it was not an American. This did not happen because Iran no longer had air defenses.

 

3. It became clear that defeating Iran would require boots on the ground with the possible massive casualties in both ground troops and air support. It would have propelled the U.S. into to an extended war requiring the call up of troops with no clear assurance of quick victory. The geography, population and years of preparation made Iran a formidable opponent.

 

4. The strait of Hormuz put this whole thing on a clock, the worlds oil reserve were becoming depleted,  The Embargo was weak since Iran has access to the Caspian sea and multiple land routes.

 

5. Russia and China views Iran as a pivotal asset for their future commercial business, strategic location on the east west and north south routes. They would have supplied Iran in any prolonged conflict that could have tied the U.S. down for a very long time and drained its resources.

 

6. Iran still had substantial missile capabilities, it threatened to destroy the desalination and oil resources of the region if its infrastructure was attacked, we can assume that the U.S. intelligence understood this reality.

 

Then there is the reality that Iran has been moving in a more moderate direction, with a view that it wanted to become a player in BRICS and  become a less confrontational actor. It has shown restraint even with the assassination of its leadership, attack on it school girls, it did not become enraged and lash out, without purpose, it mostly engaged in measure retaliation to attacks.  It has been rational in its negotiations and firm in demanding that it desired to become a member of the world community. 

 

Trump did not go down the negotiation path because he did not want to defeat Iran, but because the cost in that endeavor was not predictable, very high, with no assurance of victory. This is the same calculation that 4 other presidents came to, ,after careful analysis from objective U.S. analysts. This war has given Iran the leverage to change the direction of its relationship going forward. It could be the best result for everyone, if successful.

 

 

 

 

 

Is Trump hoping to end talks?

 WE WILL KNOW SOON IF TRUMP WANTS TO END THIS

TRASH TALK WILL GAIN NOTHING 

 

The opening of talks in Switzerland began very rocky, mostly due to outrageous trash talking by Trump. Trump told Iran they better cooperate or he would take over their country and that they may not ever get back home, a direct threat to the lives of the negotiators. This is similar talk that ended the 1st. talks in Pakistan. He also threatened to take over the strait and charge tolls. It seems the talks have not been ended,  the strategy is is not clear,  is Trump attempting to be tough for Israeli and domestic neocon consumption? It is just making Trump look unhinged.

 

While the narrative is ongoing that this agreement is a bad deal, no one has come up with an alternative. 

 

Many are calling for renewed military action, it is clear that more action will cause a retaliation from Iran that will seriously damage the oil infrastructure of the region, and will cause a global economic crisis. A renewed air war would need to attack infrastructure and Iran does have the capacity to do the same in the region.

 

A ground war with Iran has not been seriously considered by any real military people, it would be a costly catastrophe. 

 

Continuing as is,  unsustainable, as world oil reserves have only weeks left, this conflict needs to be ended very soon.  

 

A settlement may be the only way to save Israel from itself. It is doubtful that Israel can sustain these conflicts and if it escalates and threatens nuclear war, the possibility of other major world powers coming to the conclusion that the quickest way to end all this is a massive attack on Israel. They could be destroyed in bours and what good would a response from the United States accomplish at that point.

 

The reality is, this conflict needs to end very soon and odds are that it will.

 

 

 

Consequences of Iran war will be long term.

 IT APPEARS DECISION HAS BEEN MADE TO  MOVE FORWARD

OIL PRICES TO REMAIN ELEVATED, POLITICAL WARS INCREASE

Word is out, ships are beginning to move in the strait of Hormuz, while only a fraction of former traffic, it can be expected to increase in the coming days. Oil futures prices have fallen, but it appears that it will take many months for prices to normalize. Demand will rise as Governments attempt to replenish reserves drawn down in recent months. Most reserves were within weeks of being depleted.

It is reported that Vance has canceled his meeting in Switzerland due to logistics problems or an attempt to not give ammunition to the opposition to this deal. We should expect negotiations will now be conducted with little transparency and little drama. 

While many sceptics, with good reason, have doubted the sincerity of this deal on Trump's part, it does, at least for now, look like Trump has made the decision to end this. A difficult decision, but all the other options would result in a long term commitment that could have lasted years. It may be that now that that decision has been made it will be implemented quickly.

The political consequences are just beginning, the political warfare will be intense from those who wanted to keep this going for years. We will hear that just a little longer, or a few more attacks would have made the difference and the government would have collapsed. Same litany that we have heard for years in diverse places all the while the debts keep exploding the deficits increasing and economic peril increases at home. The consequence of this war are going to be costly, but Trump is experienced in cutting his loses when staying engaged would be worse.

Israel will need to make adjustments to its policy's, whether it wants to or not, We can expect their own domestic political situation will be intense as well. It is predictable that other crisis's and other challenges will soon take the attention of  us all. 

Will Trump revise his policy in other fronts?

 HOW ABOUT NORMALIZING RELATIONS WITH CUBA?

OR WILL HE NOW DOUBLE DOWN IN THIS HEMISPHERE?

The repercussions of Trump's decision to end this Iran war are far from over, they most likely have just begun. We can expect that if this MOA is signed and begins to transpire, the opposition will organize in ways to make life difficult for Trump. The reality is that 30+ years of military and economic intervention have run up an enormous debt, deeply divided the nation at home and caused the U.S. standing in the world to be at a historical low. Never the less many factions want more of the same and Trump did promise to change direction of the country, it does appear that Trump has made the decision to change direction in the middle east. Will he also change direction in his approach to the other crisis's festering around the world?

The reality is the U.S. is not, at its roots, the power it once was, one of the reasons for the pause in this conflict was the enormous expenditure of precision weapons could not be sustained. This is can attributed to years of military action, a diminished manufacturing base and dependence on others for strategic supplies. It became apparent that Iran was not going to fall from air power alone and the world could not maintain an oil embargo without drastic consequences. All the naysayers keep up the narrative about finishing off Iran without any real plan to do it. Trump was on the hot seat, he looked at all the options, even nuclear weapons, and finally came to his only real option, especially if he felt he would like to do other things than engage in war for the rest of his term.

The lesson is similar in the Russia/Ukraine conflict, a neutral non aligned Ukraine could have been the most prosperous country in eastern Europe, the EU, particularly Germany, had a cushy energy arrangement with Russia that allowed them to prosper, but threw it all away due to the Neocon dream of dismembering Russia. So far, they cannot suck it up and change direction. 

All the while, China sets an example of non-intervention, growing their economy and infrastructure at home and making mutually prosperous deals with all those willing to partner with them. 

The U.S. cannot maintain its global power by military force, unless it wants to go nuclear on all its adversaries, a real self destructing idea, that some are entertaining. The West needs a new perspective on the global security and economic realities of the 21 St. century. Hopefully, the Iran war can be lesson and hopefully it will be successful.

It looks like Trump is ready to move on.

 THE MIDDLE EAST WILL NOT BE THE SAME

THERE WILL BE INCREASED FOCUS ON ISRAEL

There are now leaked reports on the upcoming Iran/U.S. deal. It also appears that we may be able to be more optimistic of a successful  new era in the region. If this deal is concluded by August 19, as is planned, it will in effect, normalize relations between the U.S. and Iran and also between the other Persian Gulf countries. At this point we can only be hopeful.

The reality is that the U.S. understood that the oil reserves all around the world were almost depleted. Iran understood that this may be the best opportunity for normalized relations since 1979. There are huge incentives for both sides to make this happen. If this is signed and 1/2 Iran's frozen assets are released at that time it will indicate that the U.S. is serious. All the other nations in the gulf need this to happen, there are plenty of incentives for all.

Of course, the sticking point is still Israel. We should expect that there there will be pressure for Hezbollah to commit to a ceasefire and pressure for Israel to withdraw from Lebanon. While this will be unpopular with the leadership in Israel, if the deal is moving forward with Iran in a respectful manner by both sides, they will be under enormous world pressure to end the fighting in Lebanon. All a first step for a better outcome for everyone in the region, including Israel. It can be expected that any escalation or other attempts to sabotage this deal by Israel will be closely monitored, and if Iran can gain confidence, they may be able to be convinced to not respond militarily.

Of course, if this deal if consummated, it is not the end, but only the beginning for a comprehensive agreement for whole region. 

Trump's right decision, Israel pledges war to go on.

 IF REAL, TRUMP HAS BIT THE BULLET

BEST DECSION FOR THE U.S. AND WORLD

While at present Trump is declaring victory, in the long run it could be the most pivotal decision of  his presidency.  Staying the course in Iran was a loser for the global economy and while few want to acknowledge it, when it all fell apart, Iran would be least of their troubles.  If Trump makes this happen, he will find that there is a time for humility and a new lesson in his life. He has shown he has the ability to change course.

The present deal may be a lesser deal than the one he was persuaded to scrap by Netanyahu several years ago. If he can gain the trust of Iran, he may be able to actually make a long term difference in the region. Actually, a better deal was near completed in Geneva before the February attack. 

The former deal by Obama and now this move to diplomacy has actually brought Iran into  a closer alignment with the world community. Iran has shown patience, and mostly engaged in retaliation, the escalation was consistently on the part of the U.S. and Israel. Iran has shown restraint and the ability engage in effective diplomacy. The reality that Iran had the capability to destroy the oil infrastructure of the region and throw the world into a economic crisis, but did not, has shown the world that Iran is not necessarily a ideological extremist. 

I suspect that all the Muslim nations in the region are ready to make some sort of peace with Iran, I suspect that Iran is also ready for a new effort for peace in the region. The citizens of Israel should take a hard look at where their future was headed and consider some other options in their policies. While their leaders claim they are winning, they have lost a lot in the last 3years. It is not too late.

The present narrative out of Israel is that will continue in their war with Iran, that they will engage in covert actions and internal subversion to overthrow the government of Iran. I hope they decide that approach is not in their best interest. 

This can be an opportunity, but a rational and humanitarian solution for the Palestinian question is fundamental to solving the long term future of the region.

Day 107, Deal completed? Signing now June 19?

 NETANYAHOU SAYS ISRAEL NOT PART OF DEAL

ISRAEL ATTACKS LEBANON, STRAIT STILL NOT OPEN

Both sides seem to indicate that they have agreed to the framework for an end to hostilities in the region. Most do not believe it will actually be the end of this conflict, just a pause until after the November elections and a period of normalized oil supplies.

Netanyahu refuses to exit Lebanon or cease hostilities with Lebanon. Yesterday Trump convinced Iran not to retaliate against Israel for its renewed attacks on Lebanon. Most believe the Trump/Netanyahu rift is just theater. Iran did not retaliate for now, but there is no question that if the attacks continue they will.  Trump does have the leverage to demand compliance from Netanyahu, either by cutting off all offensive weapons to Israel or just pledge to stand back and not participate in Israel's defense if they do not comply. It would be a first for Trump and would go a long way in increasing his credibility.

Below is a summary of the major parts of this agreement, no one has yet seen the most up to date version.

1. Non-aggression treaty for the future.

2. Iran will retain control of Strait.

3. Iran can enrich for commercial purposes.

4. Lifting of Primary sanctions.

5. Lifting of secondary sanctions.

6. Termination of UN security council resolutions condemning Iran.

7. Termination of IAEA resolutions against Iran.

8. Payment of compensation to Iran.

9. Withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region.

10. Cessation of war on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

This is the rough idea of what is being considered, and if a deal is actually signed on Friday, it will begin with opening the strait by both sides, a return of 1/2 the frozen assets of Iran and negotiations to be concluded in the following 60 days. This will concern the nuclear agreement which will be similar to what was part of the original deal from 2015.

Most question the sincerity of the U.S. in all this, feeling it is more about oil prices and political convenience until after the next election. It is a real opportunity for a comprehensive security agreement for the region, if that is what they really want.

Day 104, Trump, War over? doubtful.

 MORE WAR, THEN PEACE, TESTING AMERICANS GULLIBILITY

HOW LONG CAN CREDIBILITY LAST?

Yesterday, the world was whipsawed by competing narratives coming out of the White House. More intense war, oil markets rise, then peace, oil markets fall, the same pattern that has been going on for now months. I suspect that any proclamations coming out of the White House are now considered just so much verbiage without any substance. It can be assumed that much of he world is feeling the same. This pattern is the quickest way for a President to become irrelevant.

This whole ceasefire was called for by Trump, tentatively agreeing to Iran's position, then when it came to real negotiations, it all evaporated. In reality, Iran has not changed it position and neither has the U.S.  Lets face it, Trump is hoping for Iran to capitulate and give him a clear victory. Iran, a nation that is in an existential fight for its survival, not just its government, but its nation, which has been under sanctions and assault for its entire modern existence is demonstrating that it has the social cohesion and military ability to demonstrate a lasting deterrence. This whole fiasco is weakening the U.S. and giving Iran credibility in the world community. I suspect that saying that is tantamount to treason, everyone is supposed to be on board exclaiming the virtues and power of the U.S. while in effect it is diminishing by the day.

Together  with the Ukraine/Russian war, another conflict that was expected to be over in weeks and is now in its 4th year, all in the hope of maintaining world control and control of the politics and resources of Russia and Iran, have in effect decimated the economies of Europe and soon the U.S. The debts are piling up, the internal social fabric disintegrating and the credibility of their governments evaporating. Exactly opposite of the goals that these wars were expected to enact.

It seems the leadership class is without the ability to change course, either from hubris or just unable to neutralize those with other agendas, either way, it is likely going to end with a diminished nation in all respects.

Day 103, War back on, Strait closed.

 U.S. ATTACKS IRAN, IRAN STRIKES U.S. BASES

IRAN DECLARES STRAIT CLOSED FOR EVERYONE

Dueling narratives from both sides, the U.S. claims it's strikes are defensive and Iran retaliates, more of the same, but just escalating. Trump claims the U.S. has been sneaking ships through the strait. Imagine sneaking 1000 foot long ships through a 20 mile wide waterway. We can assume the ships going through were with Iranian permission. Iran now states, no ships will be going through until escalation stops.

We can assume that this is going to be the situation for some time and the disruption of the flow of oil out of the gulf will continue. More are speculating that the U.S. actually wants the oil traffic disrupted, hoping, while it may damage Iran, it will cause economic worries for China. While it may hobble consumers in the U.S. it will damage China more and the U.S. will be less impacted than others. It may also increase dependence on U.S. energy and increase U.S. leverage. A sad way of trying to insure the U.S. remains relevant.

All this also takes the focus off of Israel's attacks on Lebanon and it seems there were no more attack by Iran on Israel.

It is amazing that oil prices have been restrained so far, when actual shortages begin that may be much harder to control.

Indications that the stock markets are possibly finally entering a new reality phase, we will see if this will cause another reevaluation of this conflict.

Chaos, instability and uncertainty seem to be outlook for the foreseeable future. 

Day 103, War some more.

 BACK TO WAR IN PERSIAN GULF?

U.S. STIKES IRAN, IRAN HITS U.S. GULF BASES

Yesterday a U.S. helicopter collided with a Iranian drone over the strait of Hormuz. Iran claims it was unintentional, while the U.S. responded with stakes into Iran.  Iran then responded with strikes on U.S. bases in the gulf. It is not clear if this is going to continue or just another strike and respond incident.

Little talk of any negotiations in progress. 

Reports claim that the U.S. staged  airborne troops in Israel for a planned attempt to capture Iran's Kharg island, it now may be another cancelled covert mission.

Most likely this tit for tat will continue for some months, until the U.S. and Israel feel they are ready for another go at Iran or until some other crisis erupts to distract.

It is doubtful that any peaceful resolution is on the immediate horizon. 

Day 102, Economic or political exhaustion, not military victory.

 WHO WILL BE FORCED TO END THIS BY NECESSITY?

THE CLOCK IS NOW TICKING QUICKLY

It is clear, there is no serious negotiation that will be acceptable to the U.S., Iran and Israel. At present, everything is sort of in limbo, but it is becoming clear that a military victory is unlikely. It is more likely that exhaustion or financial necessity will be what brings this conflict to a close.

The U.S. is the most powerful player in this affair, at least militarily. It is clear that 40 days of bombing have not eliminated Iran's ability to do damage, that is why there was a call by Trump for ceasefire in the first place. So far, the damage to the world economy due to the interference in energy supplies has been managed by expending reserves, and there is a limit to how long that can be sustained. The reality is that the flow of energy out of the Persian gulf must happen and soon.   

The calls from the hard core Neocons and Israel to finish off Iran assumes that Iran is a sitting duck and an easy kill, serious analysts understand that this is not true. Iran has made it clear that a further resumption of attacks will result in Iran taking out the Persian gulf energy production facilities for possibly years, Iran does have that capability. This will result in a global financial crisis that no one will escape. At present, Iran has not pre-emptively attacked anyone,  but they are retaliating to any attacks by the U.S. and Israel, both on Iran and Lebanon.

It seems Trump has hoped that an embargo would bring Iran to accept his demands, this is unlikely, as Iran as alternative corridors through the Caspian sea and Pakistan. It is near impossible to enforce a total blockade on Iran. The clock is ticking for Trump both economically and politically. 

Iran is geographically a fortress that will not be defeated without massive ground forces and there are not enough forces available and logistics of such an enterprise are not being entertained by anyone. Iran has been under sanctions and assault for 47 years, that is why they constructed such a massive underground defense system. The hope of an internal revolt has been much exaggerated. While there is internal disagreements, the assassinations and massive bombing has united the country as it would any nation. I suspect, that while suffering, they can outlast the U.S. and Israel. The delusion in the west that Iranians view Israel and the U.S. as benevolent saviors is just stupid.

Israel is now in the weakest position, the idea postulated by the present leadership that Israel is an emerging super power is dangerously delusional. It is completely dependent on the U.S. for its ultimate security. The U.S. is experiencing  its own problems of over extension after years of war, both it the middle east and Ukraine. Another reason for the call for a ceasefire was the shortage of precision munitions.

Israel's army is being exhausted after 3 years of continuous fighting and the idea of expansion and occupation is near impossible for a small population. There is a limit to how long Israel can continue militarily, economically and more importantly politically. The opposition at home is not for peace but for more war, how is that situation going to be reconciled?

The real solution is a comprehensive negotiation to settle all disputes, at present no can even talk directly to each other, a real solution would take years to accomplish and at present there is no will for anything like that. It will only end with the brutal reality of exhaustion and an inability to continue.

U.S. and Israel continue conflict.

 THERE IS NO PEACE PLAN

TRUMP AND BIBI ARE ON THE SAME PAGE

We continue to hear that Trump is admonishing Netanyahu for attacking Lebanon and that Trump desires an end to this conflict, it is all for domestic consumption and is all part of the plan. Neither want peace until there there is no opposition to their long range plans. Netanyahu has the vison of a region subservient to Israeli control and Trump wants to control the resources in the Persian gulf.

The goal is to cut off oil to China and Asia in an attempt to end the global move to an alternative economic system. Iran is geographically pivotal to this alternative system and the hope is make Asia more dependent on U.S. energy as a means of control. The same applies to the Russian/Ukraine conflict, hampering of Russia's ability to supply oil to this alternative economic group is part of the goal. The same goes for the supposed divide between the U.S. and NATO counties, just more psyops.

This plan has been underway for some time, the only question is, does the U.S. have the manufacturing base to keep up this conflict for the years it may take to be accomplished? Can the U.S. economy be sustained with massive debts and the effects of this enterprise on the global economy? Can the West prevail internally with increasing inflation and a deepening political divide? It seems it is an all or nothing gamble. 

The alternative would be to pursue goals of a sound currency and a strong economic and manufacturing base at home. A sound footing that could compete and also seek cooperative relations with the goal of mutual prosperity. The U.S. is not or has not been in a position of threat from none of these supposed adversaries. The real risk is an internal breakdown of the financial system that is unsustainable with current policies. 

Maintaining control of the global economic and political system will not insure the wellbeing of the nations citizens or those of Europe, it seems it is all about maintaining the privileged system of the Epstein class. The risk is that by pursuing this agenda they will destroy the future for us all.

Consensus growing, Iran is now Nuclear.

 PERFECT TIME FOR COMPREHENSIVE MIDEAST AGREEMENT

THE RATIONAL SHOULD ALL BE READY TO END WAR

There are increasing reports that Iran has joined the nuclear club and that they may soon make that reality clear. These reports are coming from several different sources and claim that soon after the death of the Ayatollah Kaimani, the stance was changed by his successor and that they have now nuclear weapons that are capable of being delivered by Missles.

While no tests have been conducted, it is also been speculated that they will soon demonstrate and announce that they are now a nuclear power. While it is very possible that this is a reality, it is also possible that they are engaging in a coordinated false narrative for political purposes. I suspect that this will be revealed in the coming days.

While Trump keeps threatening more military action, many in Washington are pushing for this, it seems that he is unwilling to play Russian Roulette with the world economy. Most agree that a new round of military action will result in the elimination of  Persian gulf oil from the world market for an extended time. It is clear that Iran has that capability.

While there is talk of negotiations and talks have all been through intermediaries and no direct talks between the U.S. and Iran have happened since Islamabad, many months ago. One must believe that if meaningful risk free military action was possible it would have happened by now. The idea that a U.S. embargo will bring Iran down is becoming less of an option, with different routes available in the north.

I suspect that the Gulf countries are ready for peace, I believe Iran is also ready, but not by submitting to unrealistic demands. All the other countries in the region are ready. The world economy is ready. The U.S. should be ready and it may time for Trump to exhibit some real courage and declare he is now ready for real negotiations for comprehensive deal that will settle the Palestine future in a serious and humanitarian way. It would indeed be the deal of the century. 30 years of war should be enough for the rational to step up and make it happen.

THE COMING COLLAPSE OF DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISM

THE COMING COLLAPSE OF DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISM

THE QUESTION IS NOT IF, BUT WHEN? 

 

Watching the news we see economic crises worldwide. While we are not currently in a major downturn, we have been sort of treading water for the last 8 years. The  underlying problems with most economies, particularly western Europe and the United States, have not improved. In fact, the amount of debt and the future ability to deal with a downturn is a lot more unstable than before. The amount of debt held by Western countries, businesses and individuals, has actually increased since 2007. This election year we hear from some who believe if we just raise taxes on the wealthy all will be well. Others contend that all will be well if we can just instill confidence that a solution is near. Sorry, All will not be well. Taxes would have to be doubled in most cases, which will cause an economic collapse, or government spending would have to be cut in half, which will also cause a collapse.

Of course the problem is that there has been an accumulation of extraordinary debt by all governments, corporations, and individuals. There is not a precedent for this situation in human history. While the housing bubble was the symptom that was burst, when gas rose to $4.00 a gallon, in the US the massive debts held by everyone was the real problem. Debts of individuals can be traced to central banks that have not been willing to clear excess debts since the early 1980’s. Instead, they have encouraged and enabled individuals to borrow beyond their means to repay. We now see a classic debt collapse scenario where people are having a hard time servicing the debt they have and banks are raising standards to stop losses...with the economy stagnating until the debts are reduced to normal levels. This may take decades rather than years. 　

A far bigger problem is the debt of governments, particularly in Western Europe and the US. These debts are a direct result of massive spending and the whole idea of democratic socialism where votes were bought by promising unsustainable benefits...to individuals, spending on projects, surveys, studies, ad nauseum... to the well connected. When fulfilling these promises could not be sustained by raising taxes they just borrowed the money to be consumed. The spending on projects, etc. is more easily addressed by just saying "NO"...BUT the spending on benefits is much more difficult to address. The real culprit in all this is that socialism has been a dismal failure whenever it has been tried. I should qualify that by distinguishing between voluntary and involuntary socialism.

Voluntary socialism is self limiting. An example is fire insurance. If the incidence of loss becomes excessive, premiums go up and some people may refuse to buy insurance. If losses become excessive insurance companies may refuse to enter that market. There are natural limits for both parties.

The first instance of collectivist failure was recorded in the New Testament. The early Christians, thinking that the end was near, sold there possessions, dined together and shared with each other. It was not long until Paul, hearing complaints from the responsible members of the community, wrote to them saying, “He who does not work shall not eat.” Human nature and the voluntary basis of this experiment was a natural remedy.

Another example was the Puritans who landed in Plymouth in 1620. They formed the, "Mayflower Compact," an agreement to share all property and work in common. After 3 years of this experiment, they were barely able to survive. The Puritan's endeavor had been financed by investors in Europe who hoped they would reap a profit by the Puritans repaying their debts with furs and other goods. After 3 years of no return, investors refused to send any more support and the idea was scrapped. The Puritans then distributed land to each family and they were on their own - the result was the beginning of prosperity for all.  It was chronicled by William Bradford that while the number of people who were either too weak or incapable of work grew, and the young and motivated were increasingly unhappy with the communal arrangement, many who formally were unable to add much to the community instantly became more productive when they were able to keep the fruits of their labor.

Remember the 1960’s  communes, where a few self motivated people bought a ranch and lived off the land? It was not long until they were supporting a larger and larger number of new disciples, who agreed it was wonderful, except for the motivation part. Again it ended in a natural turn of events and human nature.

Now to involuntary socialism. Of course the greatest example has to be the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. This experiment was immediate total government control that in the end was a dramatic failure. It may take Russia several generations to recover from the debacle. While touted by Socialists as the wonderful system of the future, (including Eleanor Roosevelt who visited the country many times in the 1930s when the worst atrocities were being committed), Solzhenitsyn and others saw and reported the true nature of the experiment. It's interesting to note that from the revolution in the USSR in 1917 to its collapse in 1989 was 72 years. If we take 1935 as the "embrace of socialism" in western Europe and the US, we end up at 2007. Does it take roughly this long for the failures of socialism to become unsustainable? While we have not had total control by the governments of western Europe or the US, we have been progressing in that direction for decades...hence the term progressivism. It has been a slow incremental movement that has taken control of most industries through regulation and has encouraged dependency by promising a safety net to those displaced by their policies. The part of the private sector that has not been effectively controlled by the government is the food and energy sector. They are in the process of taking over the energy sector and when they can control food they will have complete control of the economy and the people. Remember the winners of socialist economies are the ruling class who often live well off on what they skim off of the redistribution schemes. Even in the Soviet Union they lived well in their dachaus and had access to  travel and benefits that could only be dreamed of by the rest of the population.

While it all appears wonderful in theory, Unchangeable Human Nature has not been taken into account. Humans will help each other to some extent, but most will not jeopardize their or their families well-being for others. On a voluntary basis, many are willing to help those in need, in danger, etc. but as soon as it becomes involuntary, there will be resistance. This is just the nature of human survival instincts. While it may not measure up to the expectations of the ideologues of socialism, it is probably superior to all other organisms on earth. The Soviet experiment ended when there were no longer any incentives left. The Russians who have weathered one form of dictatorship for their whole existence were noted to remark to each other, "We pretend to work, and they pretend to pay us." In the end the only prospering part of the economy was the black market and flea markets.

So what has happened in every case of involuntary socialism?  Those who believe they are taxed too much will resist by finding ways to pay less; those who believe they are restricted in some way will find ways around the restrictions. Too much tax will usually create less revenue, etc. At first this is accepted or minimally enforced, but as the deficits grow, enforcement must increase and we see a cycle of increased enforcement, then less activity, then less revenue and if left to follow a linear path to forced labor and slavery.

In the U.S. there was once a work ethic and pride of self reliance - many would not accept charity, but after decades of increasing regulation and taxation it seems all restraint has fallen off and everyone will take and pursue more benefits, even if liquidating assets and claiming poverty is necessary. The dam has broken. The tipping point has been reached. It will not likely be restored by government action, or by acts of Congress, the same applies to Western Europe.

So what is the solution? At this point there is no easy solution. All solutions will require much pain and suffering. It may be limited by economic suffering and the necessary austerity to liquidate the debt and begin a new start with liberty and self reliance the foundation...OR...it may be that more enforcement will be needed until we return to feudal type society where basic necessities will be provided to the productive and compliant and those that do not conform will be eliminated from society by the powers that be. This is the question that will be answered when the coming collapse reaches its fulfillment.

originally published 2/11/2016

update 9/1/22   We are about to see the fulfillment of this narrative, possibly within months in Western Europe and then on to the U.S.

update 3/10/2023  We see the new budget is increased by 1 Trillion dollars. Debt of over 31 Trillion. Inflation destroying buying power. It is all unsustainable. 

update 11/16/2023, all the problems are now more severe, $34 trillion debt, $2 trillion deficit. Bond market in trouble. Any attempts to fiscal responsibility labeled extreme. 

update 5/24/2024, U.S. now incurring debt at the rate of $1 trillion every 100 days. Gold $2450 oz. While all seems well, it is all unsustainable, Economic crisis on the horizon.

Update 2/19/2025. U.S. debt nears $37 trillion. Gold $2940. Trump and DOGE attempt to reform spending and fraud in budget. Many would rather go down with the ship than change this unsustainable course.

Update 7/21/2025. U.S. debt now over $37 Trillion. deficit near $2 Trillion. Gold $3300 per oz. All unsustainable.

Update 2/25/2026. U.S. debt now near $39 Trillion, deficit near $2 trillion, 25% of budget. Gold over $5100 per oz.  A major economic event could trigger the crisis of the century.

Update 6/3/2026, U.S. debt near 40 Trillion, 25% deficit, high energy prices and increased defense budget and continued war could be the tipping point. Europe eyes reducing social spending as economies suffer under effects of war and increased defense spending. Gold has replaced bonds as the safe reserve haven. Social unrest can be expected. Classic Mises described stock market BlowUp is underway.

Ukraine and Iran war heat up.

 MASSIVE AIR ATTACKS ON KIEV 

U.S. BASES IN KUWAIT AND BAHRAIN TARGETED

War is intensifying on both the major conflicts, Russia has increased the intensity of attacks on Kiev and Ukraine is continuing attacks inside Russia, while Russia is accelerating aggression in most areas on the ground. Will this soon create the conditions for an end to this conflict?

The U.S. has attacked areas in the strait of Hormuz and Iran has attacked U.S. bases, how long will this continue until all out war breaks out again?

The fighting in Lebanon is intense with serious damage being inflicted on both sides, one must wonder how long this this can go on at this intensity?

While lots of civilian casualties are reported in Lebanon, the internal pressure in Israel both economically and psychologically has to be taking a toll. Does Israel have any economy after 3 years of escalating war?  The massive amount of ordinance that is being expended can not be sustained indefinitely.

Russia and Ukraine's losses are massive but the whole of the EU is suffering with high energy prices and now even shortages. The German economy is being devastated and the risk of social unrest is growing. 

We still hear little from either NATO nor the U.S. establishment questioning their policies, it seems it is still just escalate. It is becoming clear it is amore about hubris than ever seeing a positive result from these conflicts. Maybe, they will continue until economic collapse makes it no longer possible to continue.

It has to be be indicated that China's policy of non intervention is paying off in ways that are in their best interest, both economically and politically. While most of the major powers in the world are destroying themselves, China is just building and surpassing everyone. There is more lasting prosperity in peace than war.

Day 95, Peace talks suspended, Ceasefire over?

 IRAN THREATENS TO ATTACK ISRAEL

THERE REALLY NEVER WAS A CEASEFIRE

Yesterday, Iran announced that the peace talks have been suspended and that it is preparing to strike Israel military in northern Israel. The reasons for this are Israel's continued expansion into Lebanon and the daily attacks by the U.S. on Iranian assets in the Hormuz area. 

Israel never stopped the assault into Lebanon and the United States continued to destroy Iran's radar and defense positions around the Hormuz straits. The U.S. claimed that those sites threatened U.S. military assets. Iran had responded by striking U.S. bases in Kuwait.

It appeared that U.S. hoped to systematically degrade Iran's military in the Hormuz area, possibly in preparation for some kind of assault. 

Israel is in the process of leveling much of southern Lebanon with a high level of civilian casualties and paying a high price in the loss of equipment and soldiers. Israel never really participated in the ceasefire, which seems to be standard set in Gaza and other attempted ceasefires.

As of today we are not yet back to full out war, but again, it could start at any moment, along with the dashed hopes of any resolution that would normalize oil prices and preserve the global economy.

A brief history of money.

A BRIEF HISTORY OF MONEY

Money, we are all familiar with it, most want more, some to the point of  excess. It has been described as the, "Root of all Evil".  Realistically, we do need a certain amount, but I would like to talk about a simple brief history of Money.

Originally, most financial transactions were a form of barter,"I'll trade you a goat for that woven shirt that one of your wives made". Or,"I am tired of goats, how about we trade for some of your sheep". This all worked out well and good, but eventually someone got the bright idea of converting wealth to some form of exchange.

There is some record of salt being a form of exchange, or round stones with holes,  but most items were quick to lose their value when someone either found a pit with enough salt to flood the market or a method to mass produce stones with holes.

Eventually they settled on gold and silver as a form of money. Early records show that, as early as 2150 BC, the Shekel and Talent were used in the middle east, These were measures of weight,  A shekel was .36 of a troy weight oz. A Talent was equal to 60 manehs and 3000 shekels. This standard of weight was used by Egypt, Babylon, Phoenicia, Greece, Persia etc.  The ratio was 15 shekel's of silver = 1 shekel of gold.  Everyone had a balance scale to do business.

Finally, as governments grew and became more sophisticated, the minting of money began. This consisted of coins which were of a standardized weight, usually embossed with the image of  the King or individual in power at the time. It made trade much simpler and must have caused a recession in the scale business.

As is usually the case, it did allow for some skullduggery, clipping and shaving of coins was known to happen. Then Kings sometimes made the coins smaller with the same designation. This may have been the first form of Government endorsed inflation.  "Honey, were did we put that old scale?"

Interestingly, the size and weight of coins varied over the years, but the ratio of gold to silver was fairly constant from 500 BC up to the 20th Century.

Biblical  times-  12-1             Rome          12-1         Europe     0-1492        10-1

Early Greece      13-1             Early Japan  8-1                          1492-1834   15-1

Alexander          10-1             Early China  12-1        England                       16-1

The United States settled on the ratio of 15-1  The Constitution stated that all money was to be gold or silver coin.

O course, we have been talking about gold and silver coins. What about paper money?

In medieval Europe, gold and silver was the medium of exchange. When someone had a little more than needed for survival, they often placed it with a Goldsmith, who had a natural need for security in his business.  He would account for their items and give them a receipt.  The Rothschild's started out this way.  Humans sometimes being a little lazy, and not too careful about things, began to exchange the receipts for other goods and services and leave the gold with the goldsmith.  Goldsmiths, who were a little sharper than the average person of the day, soon realized that his receipts were as good as gold, and no one knew how much gold he really had stored for people. He was able to purchase Real-Estate, finance explorers to the new world and many other endeavors with his own receipts that did not represent gold in his possession. I could expound forever about how they used this power, but I will resist.

There were many known instances were these early bankers got a little too greedy, rumors circulated that there was more receipts than gold, and a run for their gold started.  When they could not produce the gold,  he might have been found hanging somewhere.

Remember, Politicians and Governments always take note of a good idea to increase their power and wealth.

Early paper money was a receipt for a weight of gold or silver, In the USA. a silver dollar was .7734 troy oz. of silver.  20 silver dollars could be exchanged for 1 Oz. troy of gold, a $20 gold piece. This was a ratio of 15-1. I personally remember silver certificates, which were supposed to be redeemable for 1 silver dollar. Up to 1934 you could exchange a $20 bill for a $20 gold coin. The US dollar had the reputation of being, "as good as gold". The gold-silver ratio today is 72-1.

In 1914, with passage of the Federal Reserve Act,  money no longer represented an asset, but would now represent Government debt. A promise to repay by the government.

In 1934, President Franklin Roosevelt, by executive order, ordered all citizens to turn in their Gold Coins in exchange for paper $20.00 bills. Private possession, or exchange of gold was outlawed. When the government decided they had confiscated all the gold they were going to get, they raised the price of gold to $35.00 oz., this was used for trade between countries. Those wonderful paper dollars they exchanged with the citizenry just became worth 43% less than the gold coins they exchanged.  Citizens were threatened with $10,000 fines and 10 years in jail for not cooperating.  Gold ownership was again legalized in December of 1974.

Silver still circulated as coins till 1964,  when they were replaced by alloys with no intrinsic value.

So now all money that exists, has  no intrinsic value, but only the confidence that someone else will exchange goods and services for it. While there are many instances in modern history where that confidence evaporated, so far most people are still willing to accept modern currency.

Currency itself is now in the process of being replaced with electronic currency, Bitcoin, Debit and Credit cards etc.. Endless possibilities, that will make the ancient clippers, shavers and dishonest goldsmiths envious.

originally published Oct. 12, 2015

It appears we are now coming to the end of fiat currency era, that is currency without any real built in value. What will replace it is yet to be seen. Big government would of course love to have currency that is just a digital entry, that they could manipulate, block, or devalue with a click of a computer. It seems some of the world is exploring another option that would be some form of real money. There is one of those age old truths that good money will always drive out bad money. That is true as long as there is an option of good money available. I expect we will seeing the new options in the near future. 
5/8/23

We now see the plan to introduce a central bank digital currency. Indeed, a monetary unit without any intrinsic value, unable to be held personally. It will allow governments to view every transaction, determine what transactions should be allowed, confiscate all wealth with the click of a computer key and in effect give government ultimate power over the people. It will be the end of all freedom of choice in a free market. It will give government the ability to tax, inflate, confiscate and dictate what can and cannot be traded. It will create all kinds of methods to avoid this trap and will be accompanied with the penalties to enforce that this is the only alternative money.

8/24/23

We can expect the unsustainable debt and deficits of the United States, accompanied by the desire of other countries to flee the use of the dollar, to reach a crisis in the near future. It is very likely that it will soon be clear that this debt will no longer find those willing to risk this haven for their real money. We can expect schemes to rescue this situation with possibly forced investment by IRA and 401's into U.S. debt or a sudden crisis followed by the end of this current fiat money system. We expect the cure to be total control of all assets.

5/3/2024

The EU is pushing to get its CBDC launched this year. As the debt situation in most of the western world is escalating many predict some sort of reset of the financial system. It will most likely be preceded by a debt crisis and then the roll out of the promised solution.

9/27/2024

We now see flight from U.S. bonds from countries around the world. It seems that interest rates are now possibly needed to rise to sell this debt. Those liquidating U.S. debt seem to be buying Monetary metal. The answer to shoring up the U.S. dollar and debt market is a balanced budget. With a $2 trillion deficit either raising taxes or cutting spending will cause a economic recession at best.

1/14/25

The purpose of this article is to hope to make people aware of what money is supposed to be. A store of value, an asset, not an instrument of manipulation by governments. 

3/17/2025

Gold is now $5200 an oz. silver $89.00 an oz. 57-1 ratio. No balanced budget in sight by any pollical party. The debt and deficits are unsustainable. The flight from fake paper money around the word continues.

2/27/2026

Debt continues to rise, gold and silver rise has paused during this Iran war, but the western banking and currency system is unsustainable. I reprint this with the hope that more will understand that money should be an asset under your own control.

6/1/2026

Message is clear, Nuclear weapons are best deterrence.

 CAN WE NOW SEE MORE NUCLEAR COUNTRIES?

CAN THEY ALL BE RESTRICTED BY MILITARY FORCE?

On January 29, 2002 George Bush 2 made a speech declaring the axis of evil of Iraq, Iran, and North Korea. On March 20, 2003 the U.S. invaded Iraq under the pretext that they sought nuclear weapons. North Korea and Iran then began their quest to become nuclear deterrent countries, with Iran suspending that program because of an edict by the Ayatollah Khomeini in 2003. North Korea became a nuclear power in 2006 and remains the only country not attacked by the U.S. 

While it is true North Korea has limited resources desirable by the United States, any country with resources may now be very well considering their only way of establishing a deterrence is by becoming a nuclear armed country. This would especially apply to Saudi Arabia and Turkey, one with resources and one already being listed by Israel as a possible threat and the keeper of a strategic choke point.

The message being heard by many countries is that their only assurance of real deterrence against some sort of attack is nuclear weapons. It is very likely that more countries are going to entertain the idea that it is in their best interest to go down that road. Large countries in South America have the capacity and skills to accomplish this very quickly, with open threats from its neighbor to the north and the example of Venezuela and Cuba they are probably considering this option.

Saudi Arabia already has a  defense agreement with nuclear armed Pakistan and the money to just purchase these weapons. Does anyone doubt that North Korea would sell weapons to those it found to be safe customers?

Japan swore off nuclear weapons after WW2, but that was a different generation, they may soon decide it is time to join the nuclear club, especially with the increased pressure to choose sides in the pacific region,  same with South Korea.

The technology is now 75 years old and the ability to manufacture these weapons is available to many nations. There is no longer any need for testing, just the ability to copy the plans and tests of some other nuclear country, which is most likely available. 

It may soon become impossible to play whack a mole by military force to stop the proliferation of nuclear weapons. The world political scene now indicates that nuclear weapons are going to be used somewhere in the near future. 

Ukraine conflict heats up.

 MOSCOW INFORMS WEST TO EVACUATE EMBASSIES

BOTH SIDES ESCALATE

In the last few weeks Ukraine has attacked inside Russia in an increasing escalation, Russia responded with massive drone and missile attacks all across Ukraine. A few days ago Ukraine attacked a school dormitory that killed 22 students and injured scores, now it appears Russia is planning a massive attack on Kiev. 

There have been much speculation that Putin is under increasing pressure to bring this conflict to a close by increasing the level of military action, this may now be what is about to happen. 

Ukraine with the assistance of NATO members has used large numbers of NATO supplied drones for most of these attacks, even using NATO airspace for attacks inside Russia. Leaders in Russia are advocating attacking the sources of these drones, which will be an attack on some NATO members, then they will have to decide if they are ready to go to war with Russia.

In the next few days we can expect some unprecedented attacks on the decision centers of Ukraine in Kiev as NATO countries have all been informed to evacuate their personnel from Kiev, what comes next is still not clear.

Zelensky asked Trump for more air defenses but it is doubtful that any more is available.

Russia has lots of weapons to use to escalate and lots of targets to expand the conflict. Does the West have resources and the will to match that escalation?

Day 88, Talk of Peace, just talk, no substance.

 KEEPING MARKETS CALM

NO TALK OF ADDRESSING ROOT CAUSES

We are subjected to the daily narrative that peace is at hand and much progress has been made. In realty, the ceasefire is at the same place it was over 6 weeks ago, still looking for a way to defeat Iran without crashing the global economy. This week we saw U.S. attacks on Iranian boats and infrastructure supposedly in self defense even though the boats were close to the Iran's shore. This and drone and other flynear attempts all seem to be just hoping to locate Iran's air and other defense positions to be targeted in a future attack. There really is no desire for a lasting peace treaty with Iran, Israel wants the country destroyed and Trump wants control of the oil. It is just that simple.

Now we hear Trump proposing that part of the peace deal is for all countries in the region join the Abraham accords and recognize and normalize relations with Israel. What is missing from all this talk of peace is any mention of the Palestinian question and what is still going on in Gaza and the west bank. The very question that started this whole war and the very question that has been ongoing for near 8 decades. Very interesting, that it is never part of any talk about a regional normalization of relations. 

If there really was a hope of a comprehensive change in the political climate in the region, yes all parties should be involved, and that would include some resolution of the Palestinian problem. 

I suspect the focus on an end to the Iran war and the hope of not destroying the global economy is in some way a distraction from any real effort of a lasting solution for peace in the region. It may be time for the international community to lay out the real borders of Judea and also to carve out some place for the Palestinian people, otherwise this will continue for another 8 decades or until it is ended by nuclear war.

Tulsi Gabbard resigns. 3rd resignation at National intelligence agency.

 BEING A FIGUREHEAD IS VERY FRUSTRATING

JOE KENT AND AMARYLLIS FOX KENNEDY LEFT EARLIER

Tulsi Gabbard has resigned from her position as Director of National Intelligence. It was clear from the beginning of this administration that she and U.S. intelligence was mostly sidelined from the decision making process. Early on, she testified that U.S. intelligence was confident that Iran was not in the process of making nuclear weapons and had abandoned that idea in 2003. Up until 2025 the IAEA who had inspectors on the ground backed up that analysis. Iran had publicly disclosed that they had enriched Uranium up to 60% after the U.S. pulled out of the nuclear agreement, mostly in an effort to renegotiate that agreement.

After those statements from Gabbard she was no longer visible in the administration and Trump publicly claimed he had better information, presumably from Israeli Intelligence.

In the last few weeks she also disclosed that she was investigating U.S. funded biological labs in Ukraine and other countries, one must wonder if that was the impetus for pressure for her resignation. We can expect we will never hear of that investigation again. 

Gabbard was sent out to investigate election interference in Georgia, hardly the role of the Director of National  Intelligence.

There have been reports of a raid on her office by the CIA, who she is supposed to oversee, that took records concerning the JFK files and the MKUltra program, a program that was supposedly discontinued concerning mind control with experimental drugs and methods.

Tulsi Gabbard was viewed by many as honest and sincere in her hope of foreign policy reform, we can expect she is an example for others who should entertain such ideas.