There are no happy endings in sight.

 THERE MAY NOT EVEN BE ANY WINNERS

ALTERNATIVES ARE BAD OR WORSE 

 

The global political situation is the direst since 1939, we are without a doubt at a pivotal decision time. Within a very short time the future direction will be decided and no matter what that may be, it is possibly without any positive outcomes.

 

The Ukraine Russia conflict drags on, I call it a conflict because it is not all out war. Real all out war will be something that no one can actually comprehend. Inept politicians boast of all out war, which just demonstrates the quality of leadership, particularly in the western world. This conflict may very well move to all out war and once underway possibly impossible to stop. 

 

European leaders still believe they can bring Russia to submit to their demands and  Ukraine hopes to drag in NATO to save their nation. It appears all opportunities for a negotiated settlement have passed and it will be only surrender by Ukraine or a massive European conflagration, most likely not contained within Europe.

 

The same goes for the Iran Israel US war, It has not been all out war. It has been attacks followed by responses and low grade continuing confrontation. It seems to be clear that the next escalation may become all out war. A war that will be fought until there is a decisive winner and a loser, similar to the end of WW2. Such a conclusion, no matter the winner, a capitulation by Iran or a US retreat from the region will have dire consequences for the globe. A Mideast economy decimated for years and a  world economy struggling to find any stability for a long time, plus the risk of expanding across the region and drawing in Russia and China.

 

It is clear that we are in the early stages of global war, much of the dispute is the challenge to existing order dominated by the US since WW2. The challenge to US dollar reserve status and the changing economic and political realities in today's world.

 

The reality is the US has devalued the purchasing ability of the dollar, due to irresponsible fiscal policy and it has allowed its manufacturing base, the source of real wealth creation, political and military power, to decline. It has refused to understand that the foundation of real power is no longer there, hence the threats, sanctions, bluster and now embroiled in 2 major conflicts with no winning way out, without resorting to nuclear conflagration, which will not be a win for anyone.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Asia transformation inevitable

 WEST'S POLICY BIGGEST UNIFYING FORCE

WILL TALK OF HOLY WAR IN US INSURE UNITY

 

Everyday we are witnessing a breakdown of the political situation in West Asia.  It is likely the alignment that began at the end of the 19th century is coming to an end. The Royal Navy began switching from coal to oil as its main fuel for its empire 's navy and the middle east was the most abundant source of that oil. The meddling began to keep the primitive political system in the region under their control and it resulted in the Nations and kingdoms it created by the end of WW2. This project seems to have been inherited by the United States after WW2. 

 

The policy has been to keep these tribes and nation divided and offer their military power as a stabilizing force. Any country that could offer some sort of leadership, Libya, Syria, and Iraq, was destroyed or compromised like Egypt and Turkey.  It is clear that political situation is coming to an end and the US no longer can maintain the promised stability. At present, there is a void of leadership in many of these countries and also a lingering divide of common purpose. That void is not going to remain forever and it will no longer be in the power of western governments to maintain the present system.

 

One option is to offer assistance in an orderly transition that will allow commerce and  interaction in a mutually beneficial way. The oil and other resources was always for sale and can be so in the future, without having ultimate control, this applies to other regions in the world, including Russia and China.

 

At present, that is not the course, today we hear Glenn Beck and other talk radio espousing holy war,  an anticipated war with Islam. We also hear it from the Secretary of WAR and other politicians. The hope of public execution of a Muslim man is just another subtle message to the world. The emphasis of the religion of political candidates is another. 

 

The immigration of large numbers of Muslims into the US and western Europe is a direct result of decades of destroying stable living conditions in the middle east in our quest for control. Many left those regions in a attempt to survive for themselves and their families.  I suspect that many would rather be home if it was safe and prosperous.

 

Islam is the one unifying force in the whole west Asia region, from north Africa to Pakistan and the rhetoric out of the west may very well be the most unifying force in that region in over 100 years. If this happens it will be direct result of the policies underway in the west.

 

Some of this is inspired by operatives of Israel and some of it a natural hostility to people or religions who are different, and of course decades of politically motivated propaganda.  

 

The US can no longer maintain control of the politics of the region and maybe also in other parts of the world, but we could offer the leadership of a new arrangement that has a basis is mutual respect and allowing others their natural right to self determination, something always espoused, but not always adhered to.

 

 

 

 

Saudi/Houthi conflict escalating into all out war.

 SAUDI INFRASTRUCTURE TAKING SERIOUS DAMAGE

RISK OF IMPACTING GLOBAL ECONOMY 

 

The Saudi Houthi conflict is becoming a major disruption in the region. The dispute dates back to 2015 when the Saudi's and coalition forces intervened in the Yemen civil war, they then imposed a blockade on Yemen that has caused humanitarian suffering for the past 11 years. The dispute was on hold until Saudi forces attacked the Yemen airport in an effort to kill some of its leadership. while the attack failed, the Houthi's retaliated and then a series of tit for tat exchanges led to a massive air attack by Saudi Arabia, now the Houthi's have been effective at taking out the infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, shutting  down air travel and damaging oil refineries and other oil facilities. The Houthi's now threaten to continue until Saudi Arabia ends the embargo on Yemen.

 

The ability of Saudi Arabia to produce and refine oil is now under threat and the other fear is that internal opposition may actually seek to overturn the existing regime. While the current leader has made reforms and ended Saudi support of international terrorism he has also made many enemies in the process of consolidating his power.  

 

It was likely not a good time to get involved in another round of fighting with the Houthi's who have actually become a far more sophisticated and organized adversary strengthened and hardened  by 11 years of blockade and fighting. 

 

There are indications that there was pressure by the US to attempt to weaken the Houthi's or to neutralize them before the upcoming offense against Iran. Now this conflict risks causing the depletion of limited munitions and air defense interceptors that will be necessary for the anticipated resumption of war with Iran. So far the Houthi's do not appear weaker and in fact may actually put the stability of Saudi Arabia at risk. 

 

It all adds up to a complication of the oil markets and threatens further instability of the gulf countries, with no end in sight.

 

 

 

 

Era of regime change is underway.

 FROM EUROPE TO THE MIDDLE EAST, MANY GOVERNMENTS ARE READY TO FALL

CHANGE WILL BE IRREVERSIBLE

 

While we see intense war in Ukraine and the middle east, there is change brewing in much of the world. In the middle east it is generally acknowledged that the US will not be rebuilding most of its military bases in the region. That will be followed with a natural evolution of many of the governments presently in power. The majority of the present governments are creations of the British Empire and they were held together by money and outside support. It may take many years for the money to be reestablished and the foreign powers are not going to be in a financial position to support these governments. They will revert back into their more natural foundations. 

 

We can expect a change of direction in the governments of France, Germany and the Uk, it is not clear what will follow, hopefully the upheaval can be an evolution rather than another European bloodbath. 

 

The US is likely to also experience another last gasp increase in Socialist policy, but it is no longer possible as there is no more money to borrow or tax and extreme measures could drive investment out of the country.   The US and its solid position in the western Hemisphere could be an island of prosperity and stability if it can overcome its lust for control and move to an era of cooperation and mutual respect. 

 

China's economic dominance in Asia will not be aborted, it will evolve into its own vast economic region. 

 

Massive change is coming and it is irreversible,  the dollar based economic system is in transition to a multi polar syetem that can be accommodated with mutual cooperation. It will demand an era of diplomacy and mutual respect, rather than violent control.

 

 

 

 

 

Ukraine on hold, Iran first.

 TRUMP VIOLATES "LINDSEY GRAHAM" LAW

WHAT A TANGLED WEB BEING WEAVED

 

Friday, Trump announced an agreement with Russia to sell diesel fuel to the US. A deal that was worked out earlier and a tanker actually left Russia on September 22, just 4 days after Trump signed Lindsey "only good Russian is a dead Russian" Graham law that mandated severe sanctions on any one buying Russian oil. China, India and others ignored the sanctions and it seems so did Donald Trump. Is this now the end of anyone taking seriously sanctions in the future. That may be the only real good result of this deal.

 

One has to wonder about a few things, What did Russia get in return for this accommodation?  How is Russia being paid, in Dollars, Rubles, Yuan or gold? Are Russian assets frozen in the US being released? Has the US stopped giving targeting and intelligence to Ukraine? While Russia could use the money, there is no doubt this deal was not about money. 

 

We see Trump offering Russia all kinds of carrots concerning trade with the US.  Does Russia really believe that Trump can be trusted to keep any promised agreement? We must assume there is some sort of immediate transaction that is not based on future promises.

 

We can also assume that Trump hopes to drive a wedge between Russia, China and Iran, particularly Iran. We also see Trump offering China future trade rewards with his recent meetings with US business leaders attending meetings in China and in Washington.  We can assume that the sacrifice called for is Iran, both by Russia and China. 

 

This oil deal may hope to relieve the results of the upcoming hostilities with Iran, and the hope is that after Iran is destroyed, then Russia and then China will be on the menu, in that order.  I suspect that lines are busy between China, Russia and Iran.

 

 

 

 

 

Mid-east war expanding into regional conflict.

 LOOKING FOR WILLING FIGHTERS EVERYWHERE

PAID FIGHTERS VS DEFENDERS OF THEIR HOMELAND

 

While the war with Iran is on hold due to a dilemma of no good options, attempts to expand the war into a regional conflict is another option that will not yield any good results. 

 

While it is still not clear why Saudi Arabia thought it was good idea to go to war with Ansar Allah or the Houthi, it is clear they are in desperate need for help. Pleading to the Americans, the French, British, Egypt, Israel and now even Syria, it is a humiliating circus for the richest kingdom in the region. while it is reported that Pakistan may be rising to the call, we will see how hard they want to fight and die in Yemen.

 

While Saudi Arabia is rich, or at least was, until this 7 month war began bleeding that wealth in many ways. Having spent billions on US war machines it still needs willing warm bodies to go to Yemen and risk dying. Many people will do many despicable things for money, but when it come to dying money is never worth it.

 

While the US and the gulf nations have been paying fighters for years, often they were incentivized by Ideology, or the spoils of war. Fighting in Yemen and even in Iran creates ideological conflicts and in Yemen in particular few spoils, only hardship and death. War planes with bombs are a little removed from the real dying, but ground war is real war, hot, dirty, unpredictable, with often terrible odds of surviving. 

 

We suspect the Yemen war is either the hope of luring Iran to their defense or just a prelude to another round with Iran. It is clear that he next attack on Iran will be intense, it is also clear that it is likely to pull the plug on the world economy, an exceptionable risk for a small minority, but most likely not for most of the world. The repercussion of a resumption of the Iran war might spread a regional war to a global war that will possibly not spare any country inestimable risks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North Korea, relic of the past or a glimpse of the future.

 OWNING NOTHING AND BEING HAPPY?

WILL THIS BE THE MODEL FOR MODERN SURVEILLANCE STATE 

 

You tube provides insight on the what many foreign countries are like, particularly those that we will never be able to see. There have been several podcasts by those that have traveled to North Korea. Travel to North Korea is limited to just a few countries and there are plenty of restrictions. Below is what has been portrayed by visitors to the country. I would speculate that North Korea is the only pure Communist country in today's world. 

 

Travelers to North Korea are restricted to travel  with groups of other travelers and are accompanied by guides. It seems they are only able to travel to major cites that are modern and well developed, so they are mostly restricted to seeing what they will allow. Life in rural areas and other cities may be far different. 

 

Housing, Health care and education are all free and everyone get some sort of a food allowance. Single people live with their parents, upon marriage the new couple gets their own housing and as they have children it gets  bigger. it seems the size ranges from 340 to 540 sq. feet.

 

Education is provided depending on scores and abilities and after graduation the state places them in their job, they can request options, but it is ultimately decided by the state. Workers get 2 weeks vacation, work 5 days a week usually and earn between $200 and $700 a month. Retirement is 60 for men and 55 for women. Maternity leave is 8 months and women with children can tend to childcare.

 

All business is owned by the state, there is no private business nor private real estate property. All transportation in government provided rail or bus; only bicycles are privately owned.  It is reported that this year there will be allowed some private autos to selected people. People who excel in sports, science or other value to the state can get extra benefits, bigger housing etc..

 

It actually sounds much like a system that some in this country are advocating. There is no freedom of speech or opposition. Internet is available within the country as is cell phone service. TV and entertainment are all controlled by the state.

 

Much of the financial transactions are digital transactions with a cell phone. 

 

With the advent of AI and the ability of states to monitor and surveil everything and everyone, there is little hope of any change of direction from the people.  

 

When you listen to the people in the World Economic forum, one could speculate that North Korea could be the future for the majority of mankind. AI and the surveillance state will make that possible with a minimal cadre of enforcers. Their motto of "You will own nothing and be happy." should be frightening. 

 

One wonders if it possible to domestic a population over time, just as chickens or cattle, not knowing nothing else and malcontents and non conformists weeded out or isolated. Only a change of direction by the elites of a country could change that and it seems few would ever give up power once secured.

 

 

 

Red diesel is all about the tax.

 COMPLICATIONS OF TARGETING DYED DIESEL

DISRUPTION IN HEATING OIL SUPPLIES 

 

Trump supposedly made an executive order allowing dyed diesel fuel to be used in trucks, this most likely will not happen. Red dyed diesel is dyed to distinguish it from taxed and non taxed fuel. It is illegal to use dyed diesel on the highways of the nation, the tax is mostly a state tax, which is unlikely to be under Trumps jurisdiction. It is a highway tax to keep the roads maintained, In Pennsylvania the tax is 74.1 cents and the federal tax is 24.4 cents. a total 98. 5 cents. Heating oil and farm and construction fuel is not taxed because it is not used in highway transportation. Heating oil and diesel are interchangeable the dye is just to indicate the untaxed fuel.

 

Trump does have the authority to suspend the 24.4 cent tax on undyed highway diesel, but getting involved in the dyed fuel will be a complicated mess. 

 

Trucks that run dyed diesel on the road will be fined, distributors will be reluctant to fill road used tanks. Stations that put dyed fuel in their tanks will have residual dye in their tanks indefinitely. It may disrupt heating oil supplies right when heating oil is being planned for the winter season. 

 

I suspect we will see a walk back on this and the right legal option would be to suspend the 24.4 cent federal tax on all highway fuel, both diesel and gas, this would be simple to implement and simple to reinstate in the future. 

 

A simple consultation with someone in the fuel business would have saved an embarrassing uninformed move. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yemen/Saudi war escalates,

 ANSAR ALLAH ENCIRCLES TAIZZ

WEST HOPES FOR SUNNI SHIA WAR

 

The war between Yemen and Saudi Arabia intensified yesterday as the Saudi backed fighters attempted to retake the strait on the Red sea. It is reported that attempt has failed and at the same time Ansar Allah as encircled Taizz the second most populated city in Yemen. While Ansar Allah or Houthis have been labeled the rebel forces, they control the largest city Sanas and may soon control the second largest Taizz. They control the west and north which is the majority of the populated part of Yemen.

 

Yemen has a population of 43 million and Saudi Arabia has a population of 35 million, many of their population are foreign workers. Yemen is majority Shia and Saudi Arabia Suni. There has been conflict between the two since 1935 when Saudi Arabia took several former areas in northern Yemen. While Yemen is often labeled an Iranian proxy they are actually independent in their policies, but aligned with Iran. 

 

It is reported that there are now French, British and US advisers in Saudi Arabia and also that 40,000 Pakistani troops are on the way to assist the Saudi's. Extensive bombing continued of Yemen yesterday and the Saudi pipeline to the Red sea was again disabled along with major damage to their biggest refinery.  It is also reported that the pipeline has no air defense but is patrolled by US helicopters.

 

Majority Shia Pakistan risks revolt at home by aiding western allied governments. the present government has long been cooperative with the CIA and has displaced the most popular president of Pakistan Imran Khan, under pressure from the US. Khan is presently in prison after surviving an assassination attempt. Khan had hoped to move Pakistan into a neutral position in global politics. We will see how the Shia population views their soldiers fighting against a Shia nation.

 

This Yemen war is part of the Iran war, possibly to secure a safe area in Saudi Arabia for a staging area.  It also provides a Suni/Shia conflict that would hopefully cause destruction of both sides in a Muslim conflict, an eternal strategy of divide and conquer. Saudi Arabia has always viewed itself as the leader of the Muslim world, but its standing in the Muslim world is under question.

 

Israel would like a militarily devastated region and the US ultimately wants control of all gulf oil. It appears the region is on its way to being devastated, which will result in a global economic crisis and the oil may be unavailable for years, if these conflicts continue.

 

 

 

 

 

Will Iran strike first?

 US & ISRAEL ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME WAR

NO LONGER A SURPRISE ATTACK 

 

Few actually expect any kind of peace agreement with Iran, including Iran. Trump has made it clear that an attack is coming, if not now, after the US and Israeli elections.  the election results will have no bearing on this attack, both Trump and Netanyahu will still be charge. 

 

Many speculate that Iran may attack as soon as they see signs  of an imminent attack. Iran has only attacked once in the last 6 months that was not in retaliation to US strikes. Israel has refrained from any attacks on Iran, possibly in an effort to stockpile its munitions.  

 

Iran will most likely not change that pattern, as the policy of allowing the US and Israel to start the action has benefited them in world opinion, not in the US or other western countries, but in other parts of the world.  Iran will know as soon as the planes are in the sky and it will give them time to put drones and missiles in the air before any actual ordnance strikes Iran. In fact, US planes will need to travel further and refuel before dropping their stand off weapons, which will give Iran an opportunity to put drones into the air in the refueling area, it could be a very hazardous activity.

 

Many believe this attack is coming before the elections and aircraft and resources are on the way to the region. This coming attack looks like it will be an effort to be a decisive effort, hoping to put an end to the standoff. It could very well be just that, but it is uncertain what the outcome will be.  It is unlikely that the US will be able to muster the resources in the near future for anther attack this year. 

 

If Iran is destroyed, it will set off another chain of events that are unpredictable, migration, terrorism and other problems will be hard to estimate. If the US is stymied, it may very well end its position in the region and usher in a new era in West Asia.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why Trump is unconcerned about the midterms.

 INCONSEQUENTIAL TO HIS AGENDA 

DEMOCRATS WILL BE POWERLESS  

 

Some have speculated that Trump really has little concern about the results of the midterm elections. Trump has even stated publicly that the elections are not relevant for him. He may be more right than most would like to admit.

 

Trump has essentially passed most of his domestic agenda that was possible in this term. It is pretty obvious that he will need to focus on foreign policy and trade and the congress will have little power to change any of his foreign policy decisions. While they may be able stop funding for some items, they will not stop funding Ukraine or Israel as they are just as beholding to the neo-con foreign policy lobby and the Israel lobby as the present congress.

 

While they probably could be successful in getting Trump's support on some legislation if they could agree to trading or compromising, they will most likely do what Democrats usually do, spend the next 2 years with investigations and court filings. None of those paths will yield any results in the next 2 years and Trump will continue on his foreign policy path that they will not have the courage to oppose.

 

Politically speaking, a Democrat win this November may be the best thing to happen for Republicans in 2028. Trump will  not be impeached by the Senate and I suspect most Americans are very tired politically. I see no real Democrat solutions, just more of the same kind of things they propose. They most likely will give Republicans lots of ammunition for 2028.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Diesel exports, fake terrorist attack in UK.

  LAW ENFORCEMENT RELEASES TERRORISTS ON BAIL?

TRUMP PROMISED EU ALTERNATIVE TO RUSSIAN FUEL 

 

The Prime minister of the UK has alleged that Iran was behind the alleged possible attack on the UK airbase. Amazing that the suspects were released on bail within hours of their apprehension and also no explosives were found. Just another nail in the coffin of government credibility, not just in the US, but most everywhere in the western world. We continually witness misinformation, not coming from the tabloids or even from many of the so called adversaries. One has to wonder if all these people are just dumb, incompetent or do they intentionally want everyone to believe that truth does not exist anywhere.

 

We also hear even from mainstream media that the exports of oil out of the strait is now near prewar levels. While we can assume oil is being shipped, why the absurd misinformation, will voters now feel that all is well? 

 

One of the reason that the US is exporting LNG and other energy to the EU is that it was promised to do just that, if the EU agreed to stop buying Russian oil. The EU had 30 year contracts with Russia at very reasonable prices and the US told them that we provided their defense and they should buy US oil and gas. I suspect just another election year bit of misinformation that can be pondered at least until after the election. Even if it is announced that exports are halted, it is probably not going to happen.

 

The Russian Ukraine war is intense with a Ukrainian counter offensive pushing Russians back in the Lyman area, while Russia is systematically destroying the energy, electric and transportation network in Ukraine. Russia has also cut off all shipping in and out of Odessa. Most are concerned for the people of Ukraine when winter sets in.

 

While we hear of peace deals in Iran, it is all more misinformation, the war will escalate after the election and it is undetermined if there will be any winner, or just a lot of death and destruction and economic panic with no real end.  

 

We can expect a low level of chaos, the kind we are getting used to,  on all fronts for the rest of 2026. 

 

 

 

 

 

Voting when foreign policy overwhelms domestic options.

VOTES HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON FOREIGN POLICY

VOTING HAS DIMINISHING EFFECTIVENESS

 

We are now in the peak of the voting season, bombarded with calls, messages and expensive mail, most of it misinformation, if not outright lies. While we seem to have a hard time motivating voters with threats of Data Centers, medicare cuts and of course the usual threats of Social Security cuts, it all comes down to stimulating some sort of fear or greed.

 

It is all in reality about domestic policy and even domestic policy is a continually shrinking list of real options. The reality is there is no more money for social security, the end dollar amount has been shrinking for decades under both parties. While you may have few more dollars, that will buy far less, due to inflation. In reality both parties will be cutting the buying power of social security far into the future. 

 

Then of course the Democrats promise to add free collage to the young voter, free drugs to the old voters, open borders to recent immigrants and more benefits of some sort. Sorry, forget about it, there is no money left, in fact the Washington crowd has already spent the nations possible income for the next 50 years. Of course, we hear that all these empty promises will be paid for by taxing the rich, problem is, if you have an income, you are the rich. If all the assets of the rich, say everyone over 1 Billion, were confiscated,  I suspect, they could not pay off the debt. 

 

The Republicans, of course, will appeal to anyone with a positive net worth to protect them from the democrats. 

 

Both parties will claim to make sure to protect everyone from the Russians, the Chinese and of course the Iranians, who all hate us and are jealous of our cushy lifestyle. If you don't fear them they promise to free them from their current oppression and allow them to also have a cushy lifestyle as a humanitarian gift. Of course if few million die in that effort, they are far better off. 

 

No matter the outcome of this coming election, the wars will go on,  as they have for the last decades, the president, no matter which party, will be a salesman for military equipment, it seems this is now our biggest export.  And more war can only add for the need for more of this equipment by anyone who fears their neighbor and of course increases our exports. 

 

So when you vote this year, understand that you will always be voting for the lesser of two evils, none of them can pay off the debt, none of them can increase your benefits and none of them have the power to stop the wars. It may be to vote for the one who will hurt you the least. Of course you should vote, it is your duty, just don't expect much change in the direction of the country. 

 

 

 

 

 

Iran, wrecker of Presidents.

 WILL IRAN ADD TRUMP TO CARTER AND REAGAN?

MAYBE NETANYAHU TOO 

 

Afghanistan is known as the graveyard of empires and the experience of Britain, Russia and the US give that reputation some credibility. Wise leaders, having a knowledge of history might surmise that it best to stay away from there. The same could be said for fights with Russia in Ukraine, the experiences of Napoleon, Hitler and the present attrition of the west give that reputation lots of credence.

 

While the conclusion of the present conflict with Iran is still not settled, it is becoming apparent that it will destroy the Presidency of Donald Trump. No matter the outcome, his advertised agenda has been derailed, his historic movement put on life support and far worse is still possible.

 

Jimmy Carter, who made peace between Israel and Egypt and had other positive accomplishments was all overshadowed by Iran holding US hostages for over a year. The frustration of Carter, president of the most powerful nation on earth ended with his presidency listed among the least successful in history. Iran used the hostages to buy time to avoid military action from the US and it was effective.

 

While Ronald Reagan survived his interaction with Iran, possibly because he avoided war there, it did cause lots of turmoil and damage. 

 

Even Netanyahu, the longest serving president of Israel, his obsession with Iran may be his ultimate undoing. He and his country have descended into global pariahhood that may take decades to undo.  

 

The old saying, "history repeats itself", may be being demonstrated in numerous existing conflicts. The other old proverb,"Discretion is the better part of valor" surely is being demonstrated daily.  It may be that today's leaders should have discarded hubris for a few more history lessons.

 

 

 

 

Will Bond and Energy markets wait until after election?

  WILL WAR RESUME SOONER RATHER THAN LATER?

LOGISTICS IS THE BIG QUESTION

 

Trump is claiming that he will decide to escalate war after the elections, just saying that indicates that he would prefer to not wait that long. The bond market is indicating that it is not willing to wait another 6 weeks. today the 30 yr is at 5.54%, 10yr 5.23 and 3 yr 5.06%, if this trend continues, war may be the least of his worries.

 

I suspect war would be underway now if the materials, troops and all the necessary details would allow for it, but the logistics for modern warfare is becoming increasingly difficult. Particularly against Iran, a natural fortress, with all areas of possible staging within range of Iranian missiles. If it was possible to have defeated Iran by military action it would have already been accomplished. 

 

It seems that tankers, and troops are being deployed to the region. Saudi Arabia may be the preferred staging area, hence the ongoing attempt by Saudi Arabia to neutralize the Yemen forces. The plan is probably a massive air campaign and a limited ground operation to take control of the strait of Hormuz.  

 

The hope would be to use the limited precision weapons to take out Iran's air defenses and offensive capabilities and then follow up with massive carpet bombing with B-52 a B1 bombers. The first priority would be to take out the air defenses, if not successful the bombers would be in danger of being taken out. It is assumed that Russia and China have assisted in beefing up Iran's air defense. Any successful attack on Iran will be a series of successful steps, any one unsuccessful step could be catastrophic. At the same time Iran's offensive capabilities will need to be eliminated or the worlds oil supply could be limited for years to come. The goal will be to take out Iran's infrastructure and make it impossible to sustain it' s population for the foreseeable future. A failure by the US will be the end of its influence in the region.

 

While oil and bond market pressure may be in a hurry for stability, an actual resumption and a positive outcome may be far into the future.  

 

 

 

 

 

No end to either conflict, Bond market screaming.

 ENDING WAR ONLY HOPE TO SAVE ECONOMY

WE ARE ALL GOING DOWN

 

It is clear that Trump would like to put the Ukraine war on hold and focus on destroying Iran. Not an end, just a pause, to allow Ukraine to rearm and recover before the winter. Russia has made it clear, there will be no ceasefire or let up until a final real negotiation is consummated. 

 

Europe wants war with Russia, as long as they can suck the US into doing the heavy lifting. Very difficult, while bogged down in the Persian gulf, especially with shortages of precision weapons and an already over stretched NAVY. 

 

Netanyahu will not let Trump let up on Iran, Trump is most likely going to go all in with a ground and air campaign and he may have to do it sooner rather than later. Reserve forces have been called up and are now on there way to somewhere in the gulf. They were told it will be for a minimum of 1 year. A serious ground operation would take 6 months of preparation, Trump does not have that much time or enough forces, it will be a deadly gamble for all involved.

 

Trump claims that if Iran submits it will be a great nation, prosperous and a leader in the region. Iran like Russia understands that if they submit they will become Libya, there will be no submission by either. 

 

At the same time another fight is brewing and that is high energy prices which are being manipulated daily, but as soon as actual shortages become the issue, there is no ceiling or manipulation possible. 

 

Then there is the bond market, today a 30 year is at 5.46 %, 10 year 5.16% and the 5 yr 5.02 %. indicating that trust in the US financial system is on shaky ground.  This is going to make the deficit and debt problem a real issue very soon. In fact, this could be the real battle that moves to the forefront before any military conflict can be resolved.

 

 

 

 

Beware of $5000 Trojan Horse.

DIGITAL CURRENCY YOU CAN'T REFUSE 

WILL YOU LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR FUTURE? 

 

Trump's latest offer of $5000 to all adults, if the Republicans win the election, may have a double agenda. We should all know that the US debt is now unrepayable and is also unsustainable. One of the solutions that has been put forward is the use of stable coins. These coins are to be used as currency. Each coin is equivalent to $1 and is backed by US debt. It is an effort to continue to finance the continually rising debt.

 

Now I want to make it clear what I am about to convey is speculation on my part, but we are on the verge of dramatic crisis that will require dramatic solutions, but most likely not real or sound solutions. The real solution is fiscal responsibility, not more financial shenanigans.

 

Now consider, what if the $5000 gift to every adult would be paid in stable coins rather than in dollars. That would add up to 245 million citizens needing a stablecoin account to receive the payout. That $1.3 trillion would only be exchangeable with retailers who have such accounts. Walmart, Amazon and every other retailer would want access to all that digital currency, so in one giant action much of the country would be persuaded to adopt digital currency. 

 

Now once everyone has the proper account it will become a major part of the US economy and possibly in the international economy. 

 

Since the transactions are going to be funneled through the Trump bank and possibly other banks, they will earn the interest on the debt represented by these stable coins. At 5% that would be $65 billion and possibly another 2 % transaction fee,  another $25 Billion.

 

Now while that is impressive, once everyone is set up to do these transactions, one could again speculate that the Federal government and possibly all governments could use this system for all government payments, wages, social security, medicare  etc. . No stablecoin account, no receipt of payments. Again, all those stablecoins backed by US debt at $2.7 trillion x 5%, would earn $135 Billion, by the banks handling the transactions, plus an incalculable amount of transaction fees.

 

It is likely that with a little political pressure every company would also move to all payments and wages in digital currency. 

 

I suspect that a voluntary move to digital currency would be resisted by a large segment of the population, but a move that would be encouraged by a windfall would be hard to resist. Would you refuse to accept the payout? 

 

The dollar is under assault,  not due necessarily to evil intentions, but the reality that government spending in excess of its ability has devalued the purchasing power of the dollar. It may be tempting to continue the irresponsible financial policies by replacing a already fake currency, the dollar, with a digital currency that will take away peoples ability to choose and have control of the fruit of their labor.  

 

Such a currency would make it possible for the government to decide what would be acceptable to purchase and from who. It is a system that would be envied by every government existing today. 

 

Again, all speculation, I suspect both parties in the country would love to control such a system. Hopefully, this warning, will help raise citizens awareness of dangers that are coming in the future as the debt crisis will offer opportunities to those who seek more power and control. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Asia trade, Whose their Daddy.

 CHINA IS THE MAJORITY TRADING PARTNER

CAN THE US FORCE THIS TO CHANGE?

 

 

 

 

A look at the map above does not need an explanation and it is unlikely that it has improved since 2024. Is it practical for these nations to be forced into using the dollar as its trading currency? Geographically they are closer and China does offer them a wide variety of useful goods. 

 

I suspect the vast majority of trade with the US is military arms.

 

Of course today, due to the ongoing conflict, these gulf countries have very little income, little trade and an uncertain future.  It could be that the above numbers are part of the real reason that they are now caught in this situation. They have all become major trading partners with China, including Israel. I suspect with a free choice they would continue to these kind of trading numbers.

 

It is interesting that Saudi Arabia who has been trading oil in other currencies, rather than the dollar is now in a precarious situation. In fact, just this week Saudi Arabia has pledged to not use the BRICS payment settlement system in the future. 

 

An escalation of the war with Iran will likely end the income for all these gulf nations for many years, cut off China from the regions oil and open the door for US complete control of gulf resources.

 

That is if it can maintain its economic and military ability and internal political stability to continue on this path.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Is global economic crisis last hope to save dollar hegemony?

 ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY FOR THE EPSTEIN CLASS

WEALTH AND POWER ARE RELATIVE

 

As we teeter on the edge of world economic crisis one has to wonder why it looks like a strategy rather than a consequence of poor decisions. The Russia/Ukraine war could have been avoided with just accepting a neutral Ukraine. It could have been ended within months in Istanbul. The Iran war also could have been avoided as Iran had accepted most of the conditions in Geneva, days before the  war was started by the US and Israel.

 

There is lots of evidence that these wars were desired and also that they are not in a hurry to actually end them. It is also clear that these wars are an effort to short circuit the move to an alternative economic system, not dependent on the dollar. A system evolving to neuter the ability of the US to economically damage or destroy those that do not submit to US power.

 

Now we have been told that the Russians and the Chinese are our mortal enemies and that they want to destroy our way of life and they need to stopped by any means. This of course also includes Iran and any other nation that does not bend the knee.  

 

Lets face it, maintaining the supremacy of the dollar is not going that well, Its standing has eroded year by year, not by conspiracy of our enemies but by the irresponsibility of our leaders. It is the ultimate power of the US and we are witnessing that our military power has limitations. Limitations that will be further eroded by of own economic nonsense and diminishing manufacturing base.

 

The US cannot be restored to is strong base in weeks or years but only by decades of sustained perseverance and disciplined work. 

 

We have to wonder if the ruling class sees the handwriting on the wall and understands that their power over others is coming to an end and the last hope is to bring the whole system down, everyone diminished, many destroyed, so they are still number one even a very reduced level.

 

If you have $1000 and everyone has $1 you are now rich. If much of the world is lacking food and energy and you are surviving even at a reduced level, you are still relatively rich. 

 

Building bunkers for survival to be able to take advantage of the opportunities for unprecedented wealth and power in the future, while most of the world is destroyed is not a new evil strategy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

World economy needs an end to 1 war.

 TAKE YOUR PICK RUSSIA OR IRAN

MOST LIKELY NOT WITH A VICTORY 

 

As we are now in the midst of escalating war both in Europe and Western Asia, it is clear neither can be won easily or quickly and the world economy cannot survive two existential wars at one time. This is doubly critical as both are major oil producing regions. 

 

So, which war can be ended most quickly? Which war will have the the most immediate effect in a positive outcome for the world?

 

The Russia/Ukraine war is escalating by the day, with massive damage being inflicted on both Ukraine and Russia. The damage to Russia's oil refineries are having a serious effect on the availability of refined products causing problems globally. This war, underway for 4 years, is also the most complicated to end.  Ukraine cannot win this war, and the worst result would be an existential threat to Russia's security from NATO. Russia has the ability to end such a result very quickly that would be catastrophic for the world. Neither Ukraine or NATO is willing to come to any agreement at this time. this war will not be ended quickly.

 

The Iran war is far less complicated, in fact, there is recipe to end this conflict on the table. It would require a decision to do that from the United States and the other details could be worked out, if there was good faith shown. The gulf oil supplies plus natural gas, fertilizer, Helium and other essential products could start flowing in a very short time. The alternative is another round of hostilities that will likely take these essentials off the market for not days or weeks but possibly years, it will be a global economic crisis with consequences beyond calculation.

 

The best course is to suck it up, end the gulf war and then focus on economic survival for all. 

 

 

 

 

 

Negotiations dead, Final showdown building.

 NEW SANCTIONS PUSH, US ISOLATION 

US IRAN PREPARE FOR FINAL SHOWDOWN

 

Those on the ground in Russia covering the elections report that the sentiment is clear, no new negotiations are coming and they expect major escalation to end this conflict. While Ukraine is hitting targets in Russia via drone warfare, Russia is systematically degrading Ukraine's ability to sustain this conflict. While they have not yet taken out the road and railway bridges over the Dneiper river, which would cut off eastern Ukraine from their supplies, they are taking down bridges and rails in other places.  It is becoming increasingly difficult to supply food, fuel and other essentials. It is clear that Russia expects to eventually take Odessa and Karkiv. Russia has made it clear that any NATO troops in Ukraine will be war with NATO.

 

Iran is expecting a massive Israeli US attack before the end of the year.  There is reason to believe this will be a massive air campaign and also some sort of ground operation. The problem is that the US bases in the gulf are unusable and that leaves operating out of Israel and Jordan and possibly Saudi Arabia. It seems this ongoing Ansar Allah conflict in Yemen may be preparing for that. Bombers need to operate from a ground base. Both Israel and the US have been refraining from using their weapons, likely in an effort to stockpile limited munitions. Trump would like to wait until after the elections, but Iran may feel all out war against Israel and the US and its fleet may be in their interest to engage before then.

 

Yesterday Congress passed 100% sanctions on any country doing business with Russia. This is primarily targeting China and India. Trump has not signed or enforce this and it is unlikely he will. China has stated that it will not enforce any sanctions on anyone and India says that if enforced it will be the end of US/India relations. At the BRICS meeting last week members agreed that they will not enforce unilateral non UN sanctions. I expect US retailers will be informing the white house of the risks of actually enforcing these sanctions.

 

It does look like the rest of 2026 will have lots of pivotal and dramatic happenings. Whether there will be any final resolutions of anything is doubtful, but we can expect increased economic, military and political chaos. 

 

 

 

 

Will the gulf states survive the current crisis?

 FRAGILE FOUNDATIONS UNDER STRESS

THE OTHER CLOCK THAT IS TICKING

 

Currently we see that the lowly Houthis or Ansar Allah, inflicting serious losses on Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia for some unknown reason escalated the simmering disputes and now things have escalated to a dangerous level. This is putting Saudi Arabia in a new internal political and economic crisis.

 

The reality is all the gulf countries are in trouble, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, UAE and Saudi Arabia have a combined population of 62 million. The politics is family dynasties in all these countries with of the 62 million, 32 million are foreign workers. This leaves around 30 million and much of this made up of royal family members and a host of diverse tribes.   The glue holding much of this together is money riches earned from oil wealth, something that has now been minimal for near 7 months. This is creating the biggest stress on the internal politics of these nations in the modern era.

 

While, so far, they have not suffered significant damage to their infrastructure as Iranian attacks have focused on US bases. This may eliminate the ability of the US to insure their internal stability.  Saudi Arabia is already suffering infrastructure damage from the ongoing Houthi action, effectively eliminating their oil revenue. US resources are stretched with its own crisis with Iran and the bleeding of resources in Ukraine.

 

Under stress, many of the old border disputes  arising from the lines drawn by the British Empire may arise not only in the gulf but into a far wider region. 

 

The Gulf countries, and many other countries are being forces to liquidate assets to keep their internal stability. The most liquid asset is Gold and then US treasuries. We have seen the US treasury attempt to intervene in the gulf and in Japan and South Korea but it may be  impossible to stop the bleeding. A bleeding that may prove to be fatal if not stopped quickly.

 

Then one must speculate is the dissolution of the gulf countries another intended consequence if one should desire to take control of the worlds oil resources. 

 

 

 

Trump's Audacity of Mendacity

DAILY  TALES WORTHY OF THE GRUNDSAU LODGE

TALL TALES CONTEST EVERY DAY

 

Lately I am reminded of memories of the Grundsau lodge and their tall tales contests. While never participating, as I was neither Pennsylvania dutch or part of the local farming community, I heard stories about the contest. In our area the usual winner was a large gentlemen whose profession was hauling cattle and owned a tavern. He had a reputation of being able to tell the most outrageous and fantastic stories with an eloquence that was fantastic in itself. He was able to tell tales that resulted in gut wrenching laughter and provided entertainment that was never matched. It was all in good fun and helped lighten the mood and pass time in the winter months.

 

What reminded me of this was the daily onslaught of tall tales I hear, while some may find them funny and entertaining, it is serious business now and just embarrassing and dangerous.  

 

I do not believe the Iranians are calling and begging daily for a deal. In fact, I suspect that there has been little interaction at all. As I recall, there was a media event signing of an agreement in of all place "Versailles " 

 

I can't help but understand, that rather than fanatical psychopaths, the Iranians seem to be more measured, more methodical and have a real plan, something I now suspect is lacking here at home. 

 

I doubt the US has a large supply of expensive sophisticated precision weapons. 

 

I don't believe the risk to the general well being of the population is worth this present standoff, that is now entering an entirely unprecedented dangerous territory.

 

I no longer believe either Zelensky or Bibi will do as they are told. In fact, it is more the other way around.

 

Stop, it is enough, perception does become reality in political campaigns but not war. Reality will win out and it results in death destruction and general suffering.

 

I supported the idea of an end to foreign interventions and immoral  rationalizations of our foreign policy. What happened to the good instincts that seem to have been replaced by the same old unrestrained path to decline and destruction. 

 

It may be the last chance for real down to earth Oval office address, conveying the real situation, the truth, as ugly as it may be. I suspect that the American people will have more understanding that people in Washington give them credit. It may be the last chance to save any credibility with anyone.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Decision time for Trump?

 CAN TRUMP WAIT UNTIL AFTER THE MIDTERMS?

MAKE PEACE OR GROUND WAR

 

It seems a pivotal moment in the Iran war is going to me made sooner rather than later. With fuel prices now escalating by the day and false narratives no longer being effective, it is clear that doing nothing is not an option, a  critical decision will need to me made possibly in days.

 

The options are a fulfillment of the Memorandum of Understanding,  an air escalation to destroy Iranian infrastructure, that will inevitably lead to a response by Iran that will destroy oil infrastructure in the gulf for many months, if not years.  Or a ground operation to take control of the strait of Hormuz.

 

There are indications that some sort of ground operation is being considered. Recent videos have shown a miles long train in San Diego loaded with over 125 military vehicles and containers. These vehicles appeared to be humvees and trucks and fuel trucks all with trailers and many containers along with generators etc. It looked like a load of auxiliary equipment for possibly a forward base. 

 

It is also being reported that South Korea had agreed to furnish some sort of military force. 

 

The problem with a ground action is where can they assemble a force that will not come under attack.  The bases in the gulf have been made inoperable and most US forces have moved to Jordan and Israel leaving a thousand mile trek across Iraq for a ground force, likely a suicide mission.

 

The other option is Saudi Arabia and one has to wonder if the Saudi action against the Houthis was not a preparation for just that.  It may also be that the Houthis understood the same and is that still a viable option?

 

The gulf countries are talking with Iran and may be considering some sort of understanding leading to an agreement without the US.  

 

An objective calculation leaves a return to the MOU, the problem is with Israel being the road block to any settlement with Iran, short of destruction. Israel may have to decide to make a decision of its own.

 

Trump will need to make a decision soon as doing nothing is going to bring down the world economy, as will the wrong decision. The MOU is the only least bad option left.

 

 

 

 

 

Another Oil shoe drops in Yemen.

 HOUTHIS TAKE OVER ALL OF WESTERN YEMEN

SAUDI PIPELINE TO RED SEA CLOSED 

 

The tit for tat hostilities between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia has now erupted into something else all together. The Houthis have quickly taken over all of the western part of Yemen and with it the western shore of the Red sea, including the  islands in the sea and the Bab El Mandeb Strait. The Houthis were able to interfere with shipping in the strait before, when they were near 100 miles from the strait but now they are in control of this strategic waterway.

 

At the same time the Iraqi militia has damaged the Saudi pipeline to the Red sea and it is now inoperable, cutting off the oil that has been bypassing the strait of Hormuz. It is reported that a major pumping station  has been destroyed that will take it off line for some time.

 

The Houthis were able to rout the Yemen and Saudi defenders of 3 major  bases and capture all the US equipment and supplies. Some fear they may actually target, Aden, the capital of Yemen, and then control the majority of the country.

 

This action essentially cuts off most of the oil being exported form the Persian gulf. This will have a dramatic effect on the cost of oil probably starting today. 

 

While Saudi Arabia has been bombing the Houthis, it has been ineffective and pleas for assistance from the US has not resulted in action.  The US may be reluctant to engage the Houthis as last years 30 day war resulted in a huge loss of drones and munitions without any result. All resources may be needed for future action against Iran.

 

This action is a major step in the ongoing oil and economic war that is underway.  It may now require some kind of immediate action rather than a waiting game until after the November elections.

 

 

 

Democrats, do I hear $6000.

 "VOTING YOUR POCKET BOOK" REACHES NEW LEVEL

DO YOU PREFER NEW BENEFITS OR CASH 

 

Donald Trump has offered $5000 to each adult if the Republicans win in November.  While buying votes has been the mainstay of "Democratic Socialism" for many decades, this is a first. While many may be outraged, I suspect some are considering a deal too good to refuse. For a household that is $10,000, a windfall for everyone, not just a few select groups.

 

While Trump says every adult American will get the check, watch out, it may disqualify those who  are not here legally and maybe only if you vote Republican. Trump has a way of moving the target, so it will require a lot of clarification.

 

I believe the Democrats are talking about 2 or 3 Trillion in new spending, so this is calculated a $1.3 Trillion. Cash in hand is often better than some thing that you may not live long enough to obtain, or if you qualify at all. 

 

Now, I also suspect that the first offer is never the best offer and if we can get a little competition going here we may be astounded at what we may reap in the end. After all, it is not Trump's money or the Democrat's money.

 

Ok, Democrats how about $5500 to get this game going.

 

 

 

 

 

Beware the economic tipping point.

 ONCE THE RECKONING BEGINS, IT MAY BE BEYOND CONTROL

OIL, INFLATION, BOND YIELDS SPELL TROUBLE

 

Yesterday we saw bond yields rise to 4.86 % on the ten year and 5.31 on the 30 year, this indicates a reluctance of investors to continue to finance the US debt. 

 

Oil prices are again near $100 and gas was $4.59, diesel well over $6. Heating oil will further reduce the ability of some to keep up. The war in the Gulf is expanding and escalating and the reserve supplies near exhaustion.

 

We can expect inflation to soar, no matter the indications released by the government. 

 

The underlying real problem, as in every economic decline, is massive overwhelming debt. Debt in government, particularly in the western world, corporate debt, private equity debt and household debt is at a level far higher than in 2008. The costs and inflation and proposed government spending and deficits will add to this mixture to create a very possible tipping point that once underway may be impossible to stop.

 

Bond yields are increasing because some believe the government cannot manage the debt and also because the gulf countries and others suffering from the oil crisis need to raise money by selling US debt.  One wonders how this can be reversed? The interest on the debt is going to skyrocket and financial shenanigans will not keep it under control.

 

Rising oil prices, especially diesel, will trigger possibly the biggest rise in inflation yet, especially in basic necessities. This will curtail current spending and inevitably lead to a domestic economic slowdown and possibly an inability to service domestic debt. A massive snowball effect that once started cannot be stopped until it is expended.

 

The US has had a policy of reversing every slowdown with massive injections of money into the system, 2008 almost became out of control but debt was never really liquidated. Can they actually find a way to inject massive amounts of cash into the system again, without exasperating every above problem?

 

Only a quick change of direct could possibly forestall this, and end to war and a resolve to control deficits. It looks like neither will happen. I suspect we are about to go for the ride of our lives. 

 

 

 

 

 

1970's decisions, roots of US decline.

 CLEAN AIR ACT AND OPENING WITH CHINA

DEFICITS, WEAKENED DOLLAR, FOREIGN COMPETITION 

 

I earlier related the 1971 decision to unlink the dollar from gold, https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/219171338015504465/7906932903235858989 , this action coupled with the beginning of constant yearly budget deficits was pivotal in the weakening of the US economic system.

 

In 1970 congress passed the "Clean air act", a measure to end air pollution in the United States, while a worthy objective, the measure set objectives to be reached by 1975 that were almost impossible for most companies to comply with.  Rather than a phase in for expansion or new builds it laid a heavy burden on often small and intermediate sized companies that could not be reached. This coupled with the reemergence of foreign competition which were recovering from WW2.  

 

I worked at the Emmaus foundry in 1972 as the company spend large sums attempting to comply, but it seemed to be perusing a moving target as regulation were demanding declines by dates rather than by possible compliance, the company closed in 1985, as did many thousands of foundries in the nation. As the foundries died so did the machine shops that finished these products. Castings soon were purchased oversees and often came in as finished products. Much of these products were outsourced to Canada and Japan.

 

In 1968 Bethlehem steel, that once had 30,000 employees, upgraded it main furnace in Bethlehem to an oxygen furnace, the build was accomplished by many thousand of construction workers.  In 1970 the company was at its peak of production and also spent millions in upgrading other plants. By 1975 foreign competition, legacy costs and continued regulation caused a decline in production and the blast furnace was shut down in 1995. The company was dissolved in 2003. 

 

This scene was played out all across the country. First Japan and then Chinese plants  unburdened by regulations, decimated the ability of the United States to produce the foundation for a strong manufacturing base. All the supplies and related machine shops disappeared at the same time.  The cost of rebuilding such plants is prohibitive and also the knowledge of production has slowly died and is no longer available. 

 

At the same time Nixon's historic visit to China in 1972 opened the way for China to be assimilated into the world economy. A massive population, much of it in poverty, Chinese history of innovation and now a market for their goods moved China into the modern world.  Nixon hoped to use this China initiative to wean China away from any cooperation with the Soviet Union. China in fact often followed the policies of an earlier time in the US to grow its manufacturing base, food production and now is the number 1 country in manufacturing, ship building and most innovation. It seems the politicians of the 1970's rested on the vast US economy built in former times assuming it would always be the case, no matter the policies pushed by both parties. Many still do not recognize that the US is no longer the economy it once was but has become a country of financial transactions rather than production, fueled not be wealth creation, but deficit spending and a continuing expansion of the money supply. There is little investment left for massive rebuilding as it is tied up in a $40 trillion debt of past spending.

 

The US cannot be restored by force or intimidation or more financial shenanigans, but only a rebuilding of basic industries and a sound financial policy. Sadly the majority of our leaders have no knowledge of making things, no understanding of wealth creation, only spending and money transfers. Our enemies are not in Russia, China or Iran, but right here at home. 

 

 

 

 

 

Ukraine rejects latest peace plan.

 NO PEACE ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON

WARS MAY CONTINUE FOR REST OF YEAR

 

The latest peace proposal was rejected by Ukraine. It seems the Russians anticipated that this would be the answer and gave little credence to the plan.

 

The plan was similar to other offers in the past, Ukraine would step back from Donbas, UN peacekeepers would mange the confrontation line. Ukraine would have UN supervised elections and then would agree to a neutral military status with no NATO or other military alliance. That is the basically what has been on the table since Anchorage, but now future Ukraine would be smaller. 

 

We can expect that the EU does not support such a plan. In fact they seem to still be talking about going to war with Russia. The UK, Germany, Norway and Finland have upped their Civil defense ads attempting to prepare their populations for attacks from Russia. This week Finland attempted a civil defense drill by ordering 2000 residents to show up at a mass shelter and it seems 100 actually showed up. it seems the population does not feel as threatened as the politicians. They claim that Russia is at a stalemate in Ukraine. but must prepare for an attempt to invade all of Europe.

 

Finland's ruling class is concerned that since they joined NATO and agreed to US bases in their country, Russia is building bases expected to house 70,000 troops on their border. They are also perplexed that Russia has restricted economic trade and generally ended decades of economic and social interaction. No one seems to understand that military alliances pose a threat to their neighbors.

 

The political landscape of Germany is changing with big loses for the present government, much of it fueled by the present governments talk of war with Russia and major efforts at rearmament. The UK and France are also encouraging Germany to rearms, Dejavu all over again.

 

Iran demonstrated a new anti-ship missile that should be warning concerning escalation.  They have also made it clear that they will step up enforcement of the control of the strait.

 

Cooling temperatures in the gulf may make the possible ground action look more enticing. No sign of peace anywhere, escalation is more likely. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Next step, Ground action?

 INDICATIONS OF GROUND ACTION IN IRAN

HOPING FOR POLITICAL SALVATION? 

 

There are increasing indications that some type of ground action against Iran may be on the horizon. While an all out invasion would require hundreds of thousands of troops and months of logistic support, a targeted or limited attack may be the next escalation option. 

 

There are reports of reserve forces being moved to the middle east and also a redeployment of troops out of Poland to an as yet not disclosed destination. With airborne and marines already in the region and we should expect with a limited time line after already being there for months. It is looking like some type of action may be coming and before the upcoming elections.

 

Netanyahu has been pushing for some type of ground attack for some time and with elections coming in Israel, more war will hope to keep himself in power. 

 

Trump is looking for some type of per-election win and may feel that this is the next roll of the dice to rally support. 

 

Iran may feel that a bait and bleed strategy will keep the population focused and give its military an opportunity to shed US blood. It would not be hard to entice a raid by leaking plans on nuclear implementation or some weak area of opportunity.

 

The recent division in the US military has had to do with proposed ground actions. It seems much of the military opposes this options, as it has for decades. They also opposed the war, but political considerations overrode that advice.  

 

With the political positives possible for all three combatants and time running out on fuel prices for the US, political risks for Netanyahu and a need for Iran's leadership to keep the population engaged, ground action is very possible, very soon.  

 

 

 

A brief history of money.

A BRIEF HISTORY OF MONEY

Money, we are all familiar with it, most want more, some to the point of  excess. It has been described as the, "Root of all Evil".  Realistically, we do need a certain amount, but I would like to talk about a simple brief history of Money.

Originally, most financial transactions were a form of barter,"I'll trade you a goat for that woven shirt that one of your wives made". Or,"I am tired of goats, how about we trade for some of your sheep". This all worked out well and good, but eventually someone got the bright idea of converting wealth to some form of exchange.

There is some record of salt being a form of exchange, or round stones with holes,  but most items were quick to lose their value when someone either found a pit with enough salt to flood the market or a method to mass produce stones with holes.

Eventually they settled on gold and silver as a form of money. Early records show that, as early as 2150 BC, the Shekel and Talent were used in the middle east, These were measures of weight,  A shekel was .36 of a troy weight oz. A Talent was equal to 60 manehs and 3000 shekels. This standard of weight was used by Egypt, Babylon, Phoenicia, Greece, Persia etc.  The ratio was 15 shekel's of silver = 1 shekel of gold.  Everyone had a balance scale to do business.

Finally, as governments grew and became more sophisticated, the minting of money began. This consisted of coins which were of a standardized weight, usually embossed with the image of  the King or individual in power at the time. It made trade much simpler and must have caused a recession in the scale business.

As is usually the case, it did allow for some skullduggery, clipping and shaving of coins was known to happen. Then Kings sometimes made the coins smaller with the same designation. This may have been the first form of Government endorsed inflation.  "Honey, were did we put that old scale?"

Interestingly, the size and weight of coins varied over the years, but the ratio of gold to silver was fairly constant from 500 BC up to the 20th Century.

Biblical  times-  12-1             Rome          12-1         Europe     0-1492        10-1

Early Greece      13-1             Early Japan  8-1                          1492-1834   15-1

Alexander          10-1             Early China  12-1        England                       16-1

The United States settled on the ratio of 15-1  The Constitution stated that all money was to be gold or silver coin.

O course, we have been talking about gold and silver coins. What about paper money?

In medieval Europe, gold and silver was the medium of exchange. When someone had a little more than needed for survival, they often placed it with a Goldsmith, who had a natural need for security in his business.  He would account for their items and give them a receipt.  The Rothschild's started out this way.  Humans sometimes being a little lazy, and not too careful about things, began to exchange the receipts for other goods and services and leave the gold with the goldsmith.  Goldsmiths, who were a little sharper than the average person of the day, soon realized that his receipts were as good as gold, and no one knew how much gold he really had stored for people. He was able to purchase Real-Estate, finance explorers to the new world and many other endeavors with his own receipts that did not represent gold in his possession. I could expound forever about how they used this power, but I will resist.

There were many known instances were these early bankers got a little too greedy, rumors circulated that there was more receipts than gold, and a run for their gold started.  When they could not produce the gold,  he might have been found hanging somewhere.

Remember, Politicians and Governments always take note of a good idea to increase their power and wealth.

Early paper money was a receipt for a weight of gold or silver, In the USA. a silver dollar was .7734 troy oz. of silver.  20 silver dollars could be exchanged for 1 Oz. troy of gold, a $20 gold piece. This was a ratio of 15-1. I personally remember silver certificates, which were supposed to be redeemable for 1 silver dollar. Up to 1934 you could exchange a $20 bill for a $20 gold coin. The US dollar had the reputation of being, "as good as gold". The gold-silver ratio today is 72-1.

In 1914, with passage of the Federal Reserve Act,  money no longer represented an asset, but would now represent Government debt. A promise to repay by the government.

In 1934, President Franklin Roosevelt, by executive order, ordered all citizens to turn in their Gold Coins in exchange for paper $20.00 bills. Private possession, or exchange of gold was outlawed. When the government decided they had confiscated all the gold they were going to get, they raised the price of gold to $35.00 oz., this was used for trade between countries. Those wonderful paper dollars they exchanged with the citizenry just became worth 43% less than the gold coins they exchanged.  Citizens were threatened with $10,000 fines and 10 years in jail for not cooperating.  Gold ownership was again legalized in December of 1974.

Silver still circulated as coins till 1964,  when they were replaced by alloys with no intrinsic value.

So now all money that exists, has  no intrinsic value, but only the confidence that someone else will exchange goods and services for it. While there are many instances in modern history where that confidence evaporated, so far most people are still willing to accept modern currency.

Currency itself is now in the process of being replaced with electronic currency, Bitcoin, Debit and Credit cards etc.. Endless possibilities, that will make the ancient clippers, shavers and dishonest goldsmiths envious.

originally published Oct. 12, 2015

It appears we are now coming to the end of fiat currency era, that is currency without any real built in value. What will replace it is yet to be seen. Big government would of course love to have currency that is just a digital entry, that they could manipulate, block, or devalue with a click of a computer. It seems some of the world is exploring another option that would be some form of real money. There is one of those age old truths that good money will always drive out bad money. That is true as long as there is an option of good money available. I expect we will seeing the new options in the near future. 
5/8/23

We now see the plan to introduce a central bank digital currency. Indeed, a monetary unit without any intrinsic value, unable to be held personally. It will allow governments to view every transaction, determine what transactions should be allowed, confiscate all wealth with the click of a computer key and in effect give government ultimate power over the people. It will be the end of all freedom of choice in a free market. It will give government the ability to tax, inflate, confiscate and dictate what can and cannot be traded. It will create all kinds of methods to avoid this trap and will be accompanied with the penalties to enforce that this is the only alternative money.

8/24/23

We can expect the unsustainable debt and deficits of the United States, accompanied by the desire of other countries to flee the use of the dollar, to reach a crisis in the near future. It is very likely that it will soon be clear that this debt will no longer find those willing to risk this haven for their real money. We can expect schemes to rescue this situation with possibly forced investment by IRA and 401's into U.S. debt or a sudden crisis followed by the end of this current fiat money system. We expect the cure to be total control of all assets.

5/3/2024

The EU is pushing to get its CBDC launched this year. As the debt situation in most of the western world is escalating many predict some sort of reset of the financial system. It will most likely be preceded by a debt crisis and then the roll out of the promised solution.

9/27/2024

We now see flight from U.S. bonds from countries around the world. It seems that interest rates are now possibly needed to rise to sell this debt. Those liquidating U.S. debt seem to be buying Monetary metal. The answer to shoring up the U.S. dollar and debt market is a balanced budget. With a $2 trillion deficit either raising taxes or cutting spending will cause a economic recession at best.

1/14/25

The purpose of this article is to hope to make people aware of what money is supposed to be. A store of value, an asset, not an instrument of manipulation by governments. 

3/17/2025

Gold is now $5200 an oz. silver $89.00 an oz. 57-1 ratio. No balanced budget in sight by any pollical party. The debt and deficits are unsustainable. The flight from fake paper money around the word continues.

2/27/2026

Debt continues to rise, gold and silver rise has paused during this Iran war, but the western banking and currency system is unsustainable. I reprint this with the hope that more will understand that money should be an asset under your own control.

6/1/2026

Bond yields approaching crisis levels, accelerating trade war all indicate some sort of changes to money in the future. Only sound real money can insure steady predictable prosperity and security. At present there is no real government issued money in existence.

9/3,2003