Bibi is really coming this time.

 WILL IT BE ESCALATION OR DECLARATION OF VICTORY?

OR JUST A PAUSE UNTIL AFTER THE ELECTIONS?

 

Netanyahu is really coming to Washington today, I had mistakenly reported a few weeks ago that he was coming, but his time it is for real. In previous visits, this will be the eight this year, it seems to be always about war, particularly with Iran, this time may be different. Trump may actually be forcing Netanyahu to praise the Trump efforts and possibly publicly allow Trump to declare victory. Trump may need that endorsement to allow him to focus on the midterms, then no matter how the midterms go, it will be back to war.

 

Netanyahu is also invited to the funeral of blood brother in death and destruction, Lindsey Graham. I am sure his support will be sorely missed. 

 

It may be a perfect time for pause in the war, no deal, no formal settlement, just a pause until the U.S. and Israel can restock munitions and hope to fight another time after the elections.  One has to wonder if Iran will be accommodating, it seems they have again stopped attacks, after the U.S. stopped attacks. They may very well hope that, after the midterms, the U.S. will have other distractions to keep them from resuming the war.

 

Zelensky is also coming, a real meeting of the blood brothers and also a big fan of Lindsey Graham. Graham and his buddy John McCain had been proponents of war with Russia for decades, now they are both gone, before they could witness their dream. 

 

Who knows what will be discussed and planned in private, but it could be that this meeting will all be about victory and praise for Trump. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Is everyone near exhaustion?

 CITIZENS MAY TIRE OF WAR BEFORE LEADERS

MAYBE ITS TIME TO JUST STOP 

 

While we hear of possible escalation and now a growing possibility that Iran may actually go on the offensive, I for one, am tired of watching continuous war both in Ukraine and in the middle east. Both wars were never necessary, but here we are anyway.  Yet it seems we are destined to continue until the last missile or last fake dollar, to keep it all going. 

 

Off ramps were available both before the Ukraine war even started and then in Istanbul and then for Iran in Geneva in February for avoiding these wars, but leaders and their backers thought that more war was a good idea.  We have to win and someone has to lose. I suspect that there will not be any winners, they are all going to be losers. Particularly all those who are being effected by this lust for war and power.

 

It now appears that there will not be any negotiated settlement with Russia or Iran, both have been taught well that negotiations with the United States are just a ploy to gain advantage and the only course is war to the bitter end. 

 

Contrary to media narrative, Russia is moving west and accelerating even while Ukraine damages Russia's oil production, a damage that will be felt and paid for by everyone.  Russia is not going to quit and will not fold internally, Ukraine will most likely lose Odessa and Karkiv before this is over and it will probably not be over until Ukraine can no longer physically resist. 

 

As for Iran, there are indications that they may soon stop with the policy of retaliation and actually go on the offensive, the first victims will be the British creations of Kuwait and Bahrain, they were never real countries, just creations to gain access to the oil. They may soon revert back to part of Iraq and Iran.  The UAE may be awaiting the same fate. 

 

To stop a ground advance from Iran will require many thousands of western troops on the ground, that will promise to be costly to everyone, it may be too late to stop an escalation that could have avoided all this with some real diplomacy.  

 

The next five months of 2026, will most likely witness the results of many years of planned war, I suspect it will cost the globe dearly. The 30 minute meeting between Rubio and Lavrov is an indication that all talking is now over, the high hopes of Trump negotiating peace is over and will not even be entertained.  All our adversaries have been taught well that there really is no real negotiation, only a tactic to gain advantage. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Escalation frustration, Casino mentality.

 WILL DOUBLING THE BOMBS MAKE A DIFFERENCE?

ANOTHER ROLL OF THE DICE?

 

As we watch the modern day Shakespearean tragedy of the Trump presidency one has to wonder how far this will go before someone decides this is a losing battle and a new approach is necessary. A bigger hammer is not always a better idea, but it is often how much more damage is done until a real solution is found. We can only watch in awe as Trump is consumed by his own hubris and fear of admitting defeat. If it was only Trumps ego at stake it could be almost humorous, but the reality is the whole country and even the global economy is at risk. It seems this whole play has to come to a final conclusion, no matter how damaging.

 

I expected a conclusion of the Ukraine war in 2025, now half way through 2026 it is still escalating, will this be the same situation In Iran, will we still be watching this fiasco in 2027 ?  

 

If I was a betting man I would no longer bet on any date, but I would be willing to bet on who will be still standing when all this is over. The worst thing for the world would be an imminent Russian defeat, as that would not bring about a collapse of its government but an end to civilization in Europe. The Iran war is a similar situation in that Iran needs to retain control of the strait of Hormuz, no matter the cost, as losing that control would be its demise. Hoping that the population will soon overthrow their government and lead to a government that now loves the U.S. and Israel is a very dangerous delusion. They like the Russians understand that their country and their future is at stake.  

 

No matter how hard the powers at be try to convince the west that their future is at risk by Russia's and Iran's existence, it is a weak argument, that is becoming a hard sell. It will be an exercise in Human gullibility to see how long a self induced economic downturn and the massive shortages of food and energy can be blamed on the Iranians and the Russians.

 

While not a rational response, history has proved that whole populations do fall for this type of bullshit repeatedly through human history, with the accompanying devastating results. 

 

 

 

Day 145, More money for perpetual war.

 COSTS AND CASUALTIES LIKELY UNDERESTIMATED

U.S. CREDIBILITY NO LONGER EXISTS

 

Senate hearings have revealed that this administration has no credibility concerning  their assessment of the Iran war. Their statements about every aspect have exaggerated or suppressed the truth from the very beginning.   It all began with the reasons for this war, it is clear it was orchestrated by Israel and we went along. Of course, it was all about weapons of mass destruction,  the usual fall back when you want to go to war. Then the assurances of a weeks long conflict, that is now approaching 6 months. Now we hear a cost of  $37 billion, with a massing of troops and equipment for over 1 year and the destruction of decades of buildings and assets destroyed, another gross underestimate.

 

Now the plea is for another $87 billion, judging from the estimate to date, that should last another 2 years. Then there is need for another $500 billion added to the $1 Trillion defense budget, they must be planning for a lot of war in the future.

 

There is no clear objective, no transparent plan, it is now obvious the plan is the Netanyahu plan for the total destruction of Iran. That will be followed with the plan for destruction of  Turkey, then Egypt, maybe it they will need another $500 billion. The Senate should stop talking to the middlemen and bring in Netanyahu and ask the questions directly. 

 

If this war keeps going it is likely to lead to  an all out regional war that will destroy the global economy, the U.S. economy and finally end the status of the United States as a world power. Ironic, that attempting to sustain world power at all costs will lead to its inevitable end.

 

While the Senators all made interesting points and video clips, they will give them the added money, they will incorporate Israels military into the U.S. military budget. Don't expect anything to change, we are on a road to destruction with no exit. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Beginning of great battle underway in Ukraine.

 PIVOTAL BATTLE FOR UKRAINE'S DEFENSE BELT

LAST FORTIFIED AREA OF THE DONETSK

 

While most of the world is focused on the Iran conflict, a pivotal battle is shaping up for  control of the Donetsk  region in Ukraine.  This area labeled "the defense belt "is comprised of 3 cities, Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Kostianlynivka, west of this 50 km belt is little resistance or postulation to slow the Russian advance.

 

It is expected that this battle, already underway in the approaches, will last for months and may result in over 100,000 casualties.  It is the last major defensive position for the Ukrainians in this region, it has been fortified for now 11 years. 

 

This battle is reminiscent of other such battles since 2022, Mariupol,  Bakhmut,  Avdiivka, and Pokrovsk,  all claiming tens o thousands of causalities. It would likely end the battle for the Donetsk oblast. One of the four incorporated by Russia.  

 

This would then leave the Zaporizhahia, and Kherson area to the south, both already under heavy assault.  

 

Ukraine's policy has usually been to not retreat and fight until most are either killed or surrender, we can expect this will be a more intense situation as it will be a huge loss in military men, equipment and morale. 

 

There seems to be some conflict in Ukraine about how to deal with this situation and may have led to the ouster of their military commander. 

 

While Ukraine has inflicted serious damage on Russian infrastructure with long range drones ,the ground war has been a slow and steady move to the west. Many believe the drone war was a last ditch attempt to have some sort of negotiation, but negotiation seems to no longer be a viable alternative. The next possible attempt at negotiation may be after Russia has solidified its hold on the four oblasts incorporated into Russia. 

 

This war can be expected to last into 2027 and result in many more thousands of deaths.  

 

 

 

So far, the U.S. has enjoyed escalation dominance.

 WILL IRAN ATTEMPT TO END THAT DOMINANCE?

CAN THE U.S. CONTROL THIS CONFLICT? 

 

In reality, this Iran conflict has now been going on for over 1 year, while it has had pauses,  Israel and the U.S. has had the ability to start and pause this conflict at will. First the June 2025 attack by Israel that decimated Iran's scientists and leadership, then Trumps attack on their nuclear sites, followed by a declared victory and end, mostly because Israel was being badly damaged by Iran's missile attacks. Many believed that was not the end of it, and they were right,  the war was resumed in February 2026 and only when the threat of an oil crisis and a waning ability to keep up, was a ceasefire called for by Trump.  Then the MOU, which many never believed the U.S. would ever agree to, and now we are back to war.  The U.S. and Israel has enjoyed what is called "Escalation Dominance" in that they have been able to escalate, then pause whenever they chose. Iran has been accommodating every time, agreeing to pause whenever necessary.

 

We continue to hear threats of escalation from Trump and Iran has continued to retaliate only to those escalations. It has been very predictable., at least until now. While we hear threats of a ground invasion by Trump, no one has considered a ground invasion of Kuwait and Bahrain by Iran. Both countries, with large Shia populations would not be able to defend against such an invasion and even the UAE, country of elites with foreign workers could only survive with the aid of the U.S. A ground war that would now be mandated, not a war of the choice.

 

While Iran would also suffer greatly, it would be the end of the oil diplomacy and the end of escalation dominance it would now be a war requiring real casualties and real losses, on both sides. It would immediately set off a global energy crisis and a global economic crisis, plus political damage in much of the world.

 

We can only hope that does not happen, that some wisdom will prevail and this game playing with the world security will be ended and ended soon.

 

 

  

War escalates, Will Navy be next target?

 WILL TRUMP SOON DECLARE VICTORY?

RUMORS ARE THAT IT IS TIME TO COME HOME

 

While the war with Iran seems to be intensifying and somehow Israel, who wanted this war for decades is missing in action, speculation is that Trump will soon declare victory and claim all objectives have been achieved and now it it up to the gulf nations and those who need oil from the gulf to maintain that victory. 

 

Trump can claim that their nuclear program is destroyed, its Navy and air force obliterated and that Iran will need decades to recover from this war. It is now only six weeks to the start of intense domestic political campaigns and only weeks left before oil becomes a crisis. It is the most logical avenue for Trump to detach from this war, without taking major losses both militarily and politically.

 

Iran's missile capability is proving to be very accurate and sustainable, while Iran is taking punishment, any hope of surrender is unlikely. Many are now speculating that Trump will end this in as little as 2 more weeks. 

 

While it will be a victory for Iran in that it has survived, it will not be a victory documented with a deal that is an obvious defeat for the U.S. It can then be claimed by weeks of media narrative that Trump has won and that Iran is no longer a threat to world peace. It may the best result that is obtainable.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Negotiations dead everywhere.

 WARS INTENSIFY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE

NEGOTIATIONS JUST PLOY TO GAIN ADVANTAGE 

 

It is doubtful that Iran will reenter any negotiations with the U.S., it is all now attacks by the U.S. and retaliation by Iran.  There has been much discussion abut Kushner and Witkoff, not ever seriously engaging in negotiations,  Iran claims it has documented proof that both were more interested in using negotiations and revelations about the negotiations to profit in market trading. No one doubts that Trump's messaging has allowed many to make enormous profits by the markets reactions to his messaging.

 

Same can apply to the Russia Ukraine war, most attempts at negotiations were a ploy to get a ceasefire to allow Ukraine to rearm and reposition.  There is now no indication that Russia will resume any quest for a negotiated settlement. While the U.S. narrative is that Ukraine is making strides, it is all just a narrative, while Ukraine has been able to strike Russia's oil business and ships in the Azov, on the ground, were wars are won or lost,  Russia is now focusing on the last remaining fortified strongholds in Ukraine. They upped their intensity and are increasing their moves to the west. They have still refrained from destroying Ukraine's bridges over the Dnieper, which would make their logistic support very difficult.  

 

On Iran it seems that everyone wants to deny that Iran has the military capability to  destroy the oil infrastructure of the gulf and to even make most of those countries uninhabitable by destroying their desalination plants. While Iran makes it clear they would rather not do that, it seems everyone in the U.S. establishment wants to see if they will do it, I guess we will soon find out. So far, Iran has had a policy of retaliating against U.S. attacks, rather than go all out in an aggressive offensive policy. If they do, we can then expect a call for a ceasefire and negotiations from the U.S. 

 

It appears that these wars will continue until someone can no longer resist and it's still not clear who that will be.  Neither war is an existential threat to the U.S. but it is such a situation for Iran and Russia, they will not be submitting any time soon. 

 

 

 

 

 

Wanted, Fighters willing to die in Iran.

 TRUMP SAYS OTHERS WILL MAN GROUND WAR

CURRENT BOMBING IS PREP FOR GROUND ACTION 

 

Indications are the U.S. is planning some type of ground action in Iran, probably some  action to take physical control of the strait of Hormuz. While most military analysts claim this is a long shot for success, it may be a desperate hope for a victory. Trump has stated that some other force rather than U.S. forces will do the ground operation. 

 

The Kurd's who were propositioned early on, have so far, said no.  Trump also indicated that the Syrian ISIS may take over for Israel in Lebanon, we will have to see if that is going to happen. Are they really that much in love with Israel to die in Lebanon? Will the gulf countries come up with a force to go into Iran, so far the gulf countries have put their hopes on the U.S. not the other way around.

 

Of course, the biggest most modern and well equipped ground army in the region is Turkey. Recently Trump promised then f-35's and maybe other incentives, but it could be difficult for even Erdogan to convince his military to go to war on behalf of the U.S. and Israel,  after all, Turkey needs to be preparing for Israel's proposed war on Turkey.

 

I do not see any European coalition of the willing to take on Iran, while they are still focused on war with Russia. 

 

It is reported that the U.S. has 50,000 troops in the region, a force large enough to enter Iran, but most likely not enough to prevail for any length of time. 

 

Then of course there is Israel, Netanyahu has claimed a ground action is necessary, is Israel ready to send 200 or 300,000 troops across Iraq to enter Iran. We can assume they can and will  since they consider Iran an existential risk for them. 

 

In the 1991 war with Iraq, it took the U.S. 6 months to position 600,000 troops and provisions in Saudi Arabia to invade a flat desert country 1/4 the size of Iran. Any attempt to mass such a force would be under attack on day 1 of even bringing the necessary troops and provisions. We can assume that any attack would need to be amassed in Israel and Jordan and  travel 1000 miles before reaching the border. Longer than traveling across Ukraine to get to Russia. 

 

The analysts are most likely correct a ground war with Iran is a bad idea, It has been a bad idea for 4 decades and it may be even a worse idea today. 

 

We need to hope that Trump is bluffing, for the lives of our soldiers, his best hope is to declare victory and go home. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MOU now officially void.

 ONLY CHOICES, ESCALATION OR GO HOME

UNLIKELY THAT SHIPS WILL BE GOING THROUGH STRAIT 

 

The now irrelevant MOU was the last chance for peaceful resolution of the Iran conflict. What come next will not open traffic through the strait, we can now expect an extended spreading economic crisis for the foreseeable future. 

 

The only choices left is escalating military action or just plain exiting the gulf and going home. It is most likely that due to internal and external pressure, Trump will escalate even possibly attempt to take control of the strait with ground troops. Iran may very well not resist a landing of ground troops, but what comes after that will be a prolonged extended catastrophe with many causalities and still no one is going to send ships through the strait.

 

Ship owners, insurance companies and merchant mariners will  not risk their assets and lives for political jousting over control of the strait. As long as hostilities continue, the strait will be closed. 

 

Negotiations have proved to be unreliable with negotiators killed, immediate back tracking and it is unlikely that any attempt at negotiation will be coming.

 

Actually the choices now are far simpler, there are only 2, both very unpleasant, but do not require a lot of real diplomacy or thought. It seems there was a real lack of any of that anyway.

 

This decision does not have the luxury of time, the clock is running out,  we can expect a decision within just few weeks at most.

 

 

 

 

 

More desperate moves, Trump trapped.

 DOUBLING DOWN, RISKING CATASTROPHE

NETANYAHU KNEW HIS MAN 

 

Yesterday, Trump announced he was going to be the guardian of the strait of Hormuz for a slight fee of 20 % of  the value of all goods passing through the strait. His plan now makes Iran's plan a real bargain in comparison. Most question if it is possible for the U.S. to actually take control of the strait, we could speculate, if that was possible, it would have been attempted before now, rather than a last minute gamble.

 

While it is claimed that the Iranians broke the MOU, it can be pointed out that the first issue with the MOU, considered a strong sign of good faith by the U.S. was the repaying of 1/2 of Iran's frozen assets. It never happened, the U.S. tried to repay it, by issuing a credit that they could buy goods from the U.S. particularity agriculture products. Iran wanted real money not a credit. It is clear that the U.S. never wanted to honor the terms of the MOU,  hoping it could renegotiate by stalling, changing the terms and restore oil inventories while the strait was open. It seems that is all history, at least for now. 

 

The reality is that Iran had agreed to most of the things that the U.S. wanted in Geneva in February, immediately before this war started. Now, Iran is  no longer trusting anything that is proposed by the U.S. This situation is similar to the deal reached in Turkey in April 2023 that would have preserved the borders of Ukraine and allowed Ukraine to be prosperous independent country, It would have had to be a militarily neutral country.i It was squashed by the UK and the U.S. in the same way that Netanyahu squashed the hope of any resolution with Iran. It appears that Israel was informed of the possible deal and made sure that it was impossible to have a real deal in the future. 

 

It is no secret that every time Netanyahu came to Washington he had folders of targets in Iran, It can be assumed that Israel knew that killing the Ayatollah and the leadership of Iran and the school girls would become a tactic that the Iranians could never forget. It would cause a war with Iran and the United States, a war that Trump would have a hard time not being a winner and Iran would have lost all faith in any negotiations with the U.S.  Yes, Trump pulled the trigger and now he is hog tied like a rodeo steer, unable to  overcome his hubris and possibly fearing retribution from Israel if he backs down. 

 

While this war between the U.S and Iran escalates, we no longer hear from Netanyahu or Israel even participating in the war. Remarkable accomplishment to bring about a war between the U.S. and Iran in the hope that the U.S. will destroy Iran.  

 

Anyway, it appears Trump is desperate for a win, and may sacrifice his presidency and the position of the U.S. going forward, rather than cut his losses and go home and resume rebuilding the U.S. for the future. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

War back on, Are more bombs the answer?

 CAN IRAN OUTLAST OILS AVAILABILITY?

STRAIT CLOSED AGAIN 

 

At least for now, the Iran war is back on, so far, Trump has been able to stop the war by agreeing to Iran's terms, or a ceasefire.  One has to wonder what happens if Iran decides not to stop on Trump's cue in the future? What is clear is that Iran still has enough capability to damage U.S. bases and the ability to damage Gulf infrastructure, if it desires. Any escalation that includes long term damage to oil producing infrastructure will bring about global economic chaos. 

 

There is much speculation that the price of oil has been manipulated, either by government action or collaboration of financial sector or a cooperation by both. It is estimated that 1.5 billion barrels of oil have been taken out of the oil market, yet the price is within single digits of the pre war price. People who understand the logistics of the oil markets believe there has been massive short selling to cause this to happen. Eventually this will become unsustainable, particularly if oil flows are not resumed and resumed very soon.

 

Many are warning that the global reserves, including the United States, are within weeks of being depleted. When that actually happens it will be a matter of availability, not only price. One has to wonder if this latest resumption of hostilities is a last ditch effort to force Iran to give up control of the strait of Hormuz. Iran understands, that without this leverage, they will be vulnerable to long term economic coercion. Iran needs to stake its existence on retaining control over the strait, it is that simple. Trump needs to have the strait open to avoid global economic catastrophe and it needs to happen very soon. 

 

Military action by either the use of nuclear weapons or a massive ground action, may not result in an increase in oil flow, but the end of oil flowing for the foreseeable future. More military action is a huge gamble. The alternative is to  give up control of the strait to Iran and Oman, which will change the political reality of the whole region, but will allow the continuation of the economic health of the globe.  It is massive change to world political order with either outcome, the consequences of a poorly thought out war.

 

 

 

21st. century, war with no end in sight.

 TRUMP TRAPPED IN IRAN, MORE ENDLESS WAR

WEST SELF DESTRUCTS IN QUEST FOR  SUPREMACY 

 

It is becoming clear that Trump can not exit the latest Mideast war, just as his predecessors. The U.S. has had large numbers of assets in the region for more than a year and has been engaging in hostilities for over 4 months.  While there are a series of ceasefires and breaks, mostly to regroup and build up limited munitions, this war can now be expected to go on for the rest of Trump's presidency. Trump's domestic agenda is dead and it is now clear his enemies have prevailed. 

 

Trump has no choice but to stay and continue this war or go home, it is that simple. Either choice is viewed as a loss for the U.S. and for Trump personally. This is now Trump's war, in fact, Israel is content to keep killing in Lebanon, Gaza and the west bank, while Trump and the U.S. flounder around in Iran. A remarkable end to Trump's hope to "Make America Great Again" 

 

The same is happening in Ukraine, a U.S. project from the start, now a 4 year conflict, sapping the resources of all of western Europe and Russia and devastating Ukraine, with no end in sight. Europe bloviating about war with Russia in 2030, attempting to build a military to fight that war.  Maybe Russia will eventually believe them and decide, why wait until they actually build such an army and get it over with now? Incredibly they are encouraging German rearmament and encouraging transitioning their dying auto factories to transition to building weapons. Are they hoping they can have a redo of WW2 between Russia and Germany, they better be careful, who knows who a rearmed Germany would view as its biggest enemy.

 

In the U.S. we hear plans of transitioning auto plants for more war production. Do they now believe only massive war can save the economy? All these new armies both in Europe and the U.S. will need lots of warm willing  bodies. They may be harder to come by than more weapons, unless the world economy crashes and the military is the employer of last resort. 

 

While we hear of record numbers on wall street, mostly due to AI speculation, the real world lives on food and energy, both now expected to become far more scarce as war both in Russia and the gulf will cause diminished supplies. It now seems almost impossible to dodge that combined speeding bullet. 

 

One has to objectively ask, was Russia a real threat to the existence of Europe and U.S. and the same can be asked about Iran?  I suspect the biggest threat to both is the lust for  world domination that is likely to accomplish what neither Russia or Iran could.

 

 

 

Time to end ethanol in gas not increase it.

 TRUMP TO PUSH INCREASE IN ETHANOL IN GAS

DAMAGE TO ENGINES OFFSETS ANY SAVINGS 

 

It is being reported that both Trump and congress are going to push to increase ethanol in gas to 15%. They claim that it will reduce the cost of fuel, but I find that unbelievable. It  doesn't make sense that producing corn, fermenting it and then distilling it is cost effective for a fuel additive. An additive that makes small engine maintenance a costly necessity. It will also increase problems for all vehicles especially if not driven daily.

 

The reality is American farmers have now become addicted to ethanol subsidies and politicians view ethanol as a vote getter. It raises the cost of food and also increase maintenance cost to vehicles. 

 

I at one time was constantly disassembling the carburetors on all my small engines for cleaning, I have since switched to ethanol free fuel, at higher cost, and have not had any problems for years. If ethanol fuel is left in carburetors for an extended time they actually can destroy the carburetor.

 

While my vehicles seem to run OK, I have to wonder what the long term effects will be on those engines and fuel systems, especially when I do not drive every day. Raising the percent to 15 % is an obvious political ploy to gain votes, it has no redeeming value to vehicle owners or anyone who runs gas engines.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trump says done with MOU, but!

 U.S. RETALIATES FOR IRANIAN ATTACKS IN STRAIT

NEGOTIATIONS WILL CONTINUE 

 

During a press conference with the NATO head, Trump stated he was done with MOU with Iran and continued to label the Iranians as untrustworthy, despicable and that he doesn't like them. While all that may be true, we can expect negotiations to continue and that an all out breakout of war is unlikely.  In fact, the strikes on ships is a form of negotiation by Iran in making it clear that they do not expect to give up control of the strait of Hormuz. 

 

Rutte, the head of NATO praised Trump in a slavish manner in any way he could, hoping to gain support for the war in Ukraine, while Trump kept bringing up Greenland, desiring NATO support for its acquisition. Maybe Trump would support a trade of U.S. support in Ukraine for Greenland? 

 

Trump dismissed Netanyahu's desire that Trump not supply weapons to Turkey, now on Israels list of possible targets in the future. 

 

Everyone wants U.S. military support for their ambitions, support that is now stretched way beyond its real capabilities, both financially and materially.

 

While many still want a rekindled war with Iran it is increasingly unlikely as oil reserves globally continue to decline and Iran is unified in its position as never before. A return to all out war would lead to global economic crisis and also a possible negative military  result. It may just fester on as is for the foreseeable future. 

 

While the Ukraine war continues, it is unlikely that support for this war is without limits, even for the European NATO members.  We can expect no conclusions to be made anywhere for the rest of the summer.

 

 

 

 

Big questions about Charlie Kirk trial.

 FAMILY SAVED SUSPECTS LIFE

BULLET, RIFLE AND SUPPOSED CONFESSION 

 

The trial for the alleged killer of Charlie Kirk is now about to begin. While details about the evidence are being suppressed, as is the often the case, what is known raises a lot of questions. 

 

First the video that is supposed to show the shooter exit the the top of the building and is supposed to show a rifle, does not such thing, there is no rifle that is visible. We are also told that the rifle was disassembled and brought to the scene inside the pants of the suspect. This is a Mauser 98 with a scope mounted, very unlikely, especially for a thin person in jeans and shirt.

 

Then the bullet supposedly fired from a 30-06 at less than 150 yards.  The big question is not the shot, a relatively easy shot from a rested position, but the bullet failed to exit, almost an impossibility, unless it it some kind of special projectile. Slow motion video of a soft ball bulge on impact but a failure to exit is incomprehensible from any normal store bought ammunition for a 30-36. I have observed 100's of deer shot with everything from  6mm to large weapons and it is unlikely that any round from a 30-06 would not exit were Kirk was shot. In fact, videos of the entrance wound appear a lot large than .308 diameter more like 45 or larger. We are already hearing about strong bones and bullets do things that are not calculable, in fact, that is just the opposite, bullets of certain weight and density do very predictable things. Supposedly the empty case was still in the rifle along with other unfired rounds,  they can be compared.

 

We never heard about the diversions by several people in the audience during the shooting even claiming that they had shot Kirk.

 

Then there is the supposed emailed confession that seems to be very vague and its source is questionable.

 

We can speculate that his suspects family, by convincing him to turn himself in, have saved his life, at least to have a trial. It seems the suspect has not spoken or answered any questions, we can assume we will get to hear the other side of this story. It will be interesting to hear the explanations for these questions. 

 

If anyone in this jury has any serious experience with firearms  it is very possible to not get a guilty verdict in this trial. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Russia accelerates in Ukraine.

 RUSSIA ADVANCING ON ALL FRONTS

NATO MONEY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH 

 

It is clear that the Russia has stepped up its pressure in Ukraine. It started with massive aerial  attacks in most of eastern Ukraine, has put out of commission most of the gas stations, cut off energy supplies to Karkiv and is advancing at a quickening pace in every area of conflict. It is becoming clear that the internal pressure on Putin to get this conflict over with is having an effect.

 

While Ukraine continues to offer strong resistance, without some sort of game changing situation it now looks like it's days are numbered , even though this could go on for many more months. 

 

We can expect that this week's NATO meeting will be dominated by the Ukraine situation, we can expect to see calls for more money and more weapons, but what Ukraine needs is more manpower, it does seem that Ukraine is running out of manpower. One would expect that even mercenary soldiers may be hard to come by at this point.

 

While the EU countries continue to talk about war with Russia and increase spending on weapons, they have little in the way of manpower. We can expect that attempting to raise an army will be politically difficult with the fragile political environment. They also want a commitment from the United States before they attempt any intervention in Ukraine. The U.S. still has troops in the middle east and  a shortage of munitions, so it is doubtful that any real commitment is possible. 

 

It also appears that there are no real negotiations possible, it seems that most of the good will in negotiations in Ukraine have evaporated. it will most likely be some sort surrender that will end this war. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After 250 years, U.S. still best.

 BRAVE WISE MEN CHANGED HISTORY

OVERTURNED THE EXISTING ORDER

 

The men who declared independence from the feudal order of the British Empire started a world wide revolution that attempted to change the existing world order.  That spirit is still necessary as it continues to fight many of the same forces that still exist today. 

 

We have to conclude that the experiment that started those many years ago has been successful, the U.S. is still the best place for individuals to pursue their dreams and use their talents as free individuals.   

 

The constitution and the bill of rights is a remarkable document, that while continually under assault, it is still standing. These documents need the steadfast awareness of the citizens to make sure the spirit is preserved for the next generation.

 

We would do well to remember the admonitions of those brave men to beware of foreign entanglements and alliances that can sap the strength and vitality of the nation.  Those same issues are still with us today. 

 

The philosophy of "vote your pocketbook"  is a great danger to the nation as we have seen the results of massive deficit spending, something that the founders would never had tolerated. 

 

While the nation still stands, it has perils both from outside and inside that only a well informed and active citizenship can insure its continued existence. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Supreme court's final decisions for the term.

 ONE IS REAFFIRMING STATE RIGHTS

ONE RULING ON PRECEDENT

 

The ruling concerning trans male athletes from participating in women's sports was a classic states rights ruling. It certainly was not an issue when the constitution was written and states rights is perfect for covering such matters.  It is probably the best ruling that the court could have agreed upon.

 

The birthright citizenship ruling seems to have been based on many years of precedent even if it is a bad precedent.  The 14th amendment was enacted in 1868 and was the direct result of abuses concerning freed slaves who often were denied citizenship in some states. The amendment ruled that everyone born in the U.S. was automatically a citizen. There was an ambiguous line stating, "subject to the jurisdiction of the U.S" The amendment clearly disqualified children born to foreign diplomats and occupying armies. 

 

In today's world, recognizing anyone born in the country even if here on vacation or illegally is not in the spirit of the original amendment.  This amendment was written way before the era of financial benefits linked to citizenship and is not practiced by any other country in the world. We can assume that court feared the complications of any change that has been practiced for near 200 years. It could have been possible for a  clarifying  ruling that exempted all before the present date from losing their citizenship. 

 

I suspect that this may not be the end of this effort to change birthright citizenship, either by amendment or another attempt with different court. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Is Bibi coming to sell his latest war plan?

 NETANYAHU MAKES 7TH TRIP TO WASHINGTON

IRAN HOLDING FIRM ON DEMANDS 

 

It is being reported that Israel's Netanyahu will be meeting with Trump today at 11 am.  The precedent seems to be that some sort of war usually follows. It is not clear who has called for this meeting, but we can assume it has to do with the Iran conflict. 

 

The United States has now had a large number of forces in the region for over 1 year with no end in sight. We hear from those who want escalation and those who want a negotiated settlement.  The dilemma is that Trump agreed to Iran's framework, but hopes to win a victory at the negotiating table. It seems the agreeing part was just an effort to get the strait open and then negotiate a better deal.  Iran is holding firm, desiring a long term agreement that will avoid renewed war in a few  months. We can assume that Netanyahu is planning war, not any deal. 

 

Trump is in a hard place, Iran has demonstrated that they are willing to resume hostilities if necessary and any escalation on their infrastructure will be followed by damage to Persian  gulf infrastructure that will have dire consequences for the world economy and the U.S. economy. Iran is also demanding Israel withdraw from Lebanon, we can expect that will be on the agenda today.

 

Iran is making it clear that they plan on continuing some sort of control on the transit through the strait. it no longer is a toll, but an environmental fee that will include insurance to cover any damages from spills and other related damage to the waterway. It seems Oman is quietly willing to take part in this joint venture.

 

I suspect most shippers find such a fee a small part of their business, and any guarantee of safe passage will be acceptable.  Of course, we can assume Trump still wants to control the Iranian oil and even the other Persian gulf oil resources. There is little room for compromise by either side and everyday the risk and costs are rising.

 

I doubt that Bibi is bringing any positive solutions with him today. 

 

Update. It seems Netanyhou did not come to the U.S. yesterday, sorry this column was in error. 

 

 

 

 

Two wars in Ukraine?

 INTENSITY INCREASES ON LAND AND IN THE AIR

IT WILL LIKELY INCREASE 

 

While most of the focus has been on the conflict in the Persian gulf, the war in Ukraine has increased in intensity and violence.  For several months Russia has increased the air assaults on Ukraine and Ukraine has responded by hitting Russian oil infrastructure. The Ukrainians have been able to disrupt supplies in Crimea and in the eastern portions of Ukraine as well as hit targets far into Russia. Much has been made of these attacks and some even suggest Ukraine is winning this conflict. 

 

While it has been effective against Russia, the other war, the war on the ground has not changed direction. Russia has been advancing even though Ukraine makes attempts to counter attack and sometimes moves forward the fighting has been intense, but Russia is still moving and taking village after village and has in effect cut off Karkiv from its supply routes, it has steadily moved south in the Sumy region and has advanced all along the battle line.

 

While air attacks on Russia have been damaging, Ukraine cannot follow up with any ground operations. The attacks only hope to weaken Russian morale and keep NATO nations support from diminishing. Ukraine's manpower shortage worsens by the day and as Russia opens new fronts, their ability to fill the holes is becoming unsustainable. Ukraine continues to offer formidable resistance, but their is not really any change in their favor for the long term.

 

 

 

 

 

Iran unwilling to cede control of Strait.

 NUCLEAR ENRICHMENT NO LONGER AN ISSUE

FAST MOVING NEGOTIATIONS EXCEPT FOR STRAIT 

 

It seems there is now a ceasefire within the ceasefire as negotiations resume. The future of the strait of Hormuz seems to now be the major controversy. The 14 point agreement stated that the strait would be open by both parties for the next 60 days, then an arrangement would be made between Oman and Iran whose territorial waters overlap in the strait of Hormuz.  At the same time, messaging coming out of Washington is that the strait will be either opened or controlled by the U.S.  

 

There is also some controversy  about the returned Iranian assets, it seems the U.S. wants to put controls on the money that it could only be spent in the U.S., terms that are unacceptable to Iran. 

 

It seems the nuclear issue is to revert back to the same as it was before the war. Iran would limit its enrichment to what is needed for commercial uses and dilute or cede the enriched fuel. all this was agreed to before the war,  inspections would verify compliance.

 

The reality is that Iran, by controlling the strait, and they just made that clear last week, can disrupt oil flow instantly, giving them enormous leverage.  It is also clear that taking control away from them is difficult, costly or possibly impossible and the longer it is not clearly open the clock on global economic damage is ticking. 

 

It is in the best interest of Iran that the strait is safe and open as it will prosper by its own flow of oil and possibly by some sort of regulation maintained by them and Oman.  Many claim that the strait is regulated by international law, but there is some controversy as the territorial waters of Oman and Iran actually cover the entire width of the strait. The U.S. has also made it clear that they will not be handicapped by international  law, so I guess possession is a powerful position.

 

Many advocate a resumption of the war, but it still is not an easy choice, as Iran has the ability to destroy gulf oil infrastructure and keep the strait closed, both a strong incentive to avoid more all out war.  

 

 

 

 

 

Israel believes war will restart after midterms.

 TRUMP NARRATIVE DOES NOT MATCH ACTIONS

HARD TO PREDICT WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN 5 MONTHS 

 

Watching news and other media out of Israel it seems Israel is not ready for anything short of the destruction of Iran. It also seems they are convinced Trump will restart the war after the midterms. While Trump could be signaling that intention and also often threatening that action it may be unlikely that will happen. We can assume Trump will not restart a war with Iran unless there is plan to actually accomplish some real goals. It is unlikely he will do a redo on Netanyahu and Mossad's assumptions.

 

That and who knows what will be the outcome of those elections and who knows what other crisis is on the horizon, there are many possibilities. There are multiple crisis brewing, and even with keeping the control of congress, another war will become hard to sell.  I am beginning to believe that this was the only attempt on Iran we will see in Trump's presidency. The supporters of war with Iran may have to groom the president for war with Iran.

The increasing quest for recurring income.

 THE EFFORT TO BLEED CONSUMERS REGULARLY

MOVING AWAY FROM OWNING ANYTHING 

 

If you are paying attention, it is becoming clear that the new trend is to have consumers no longer buy anything that does not have a lifetime of continued payments attached. In effect, big business is on a road of demanding continued payments for the use of software, or subscriptions attached to new cars or other major appliances. This is often labeled as computer upgrades etc. Many people who do not keep track of their finances fail to realize they are often paying monthly fees for many things they either no longer own or services they no longer use. 

 

In the pharmaceutical business the focus has been on maintenance drugs, drugs that they expect the patient will use regulatory for the rest of their live. This often results in actual cures or 1 time prevention drugs put aside in favor of recurring revenue. 

 

Farmers  lobby congress to intervene in the production of farm equipment that is increasingly computerized, require monthly subscription fees for upgrades and often requiring propitiatory software to diagnose the problems causing long delays and often costing them time in harvesting of crops.  The revenue of John Deere has fallen near 50 % as farmers have rebelled and moved to manufacturers who are still making more maintainable equipment. 

 

Microsoft, the premier software company that has historically had a near monopoly on operating systems installed on most computers is now also feeling push back. Lenovo the largest by volume producer of computers has now made Linux the default operating system., Microsoft is now a option with added fee. Hewlett Packard the second largest producer is now not including Operating systems in their computers they are now an option. Much has to do with Windows 11  which requires new hardware making many good computers instantly obsolete and it seems Microsoft is planning on requiring monthly subscriptions with fees for cloud storage and software rental. 

 

The auto manufacturers are attempting in going down the same road with monthly subscriptions, proprietary software to cut out small repair shops and an endless costs of up grades and factory or dealer maintenance. 

 

This trend is leaving a door open for new  producers to offer simpler, less complicated equipment that the customer can own outright and have more control of their equipment and their lives.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Will Ukraine soon overshadow Iran?

 NEGOTIATIONS MOVING FORWARD WITH IRAN

AS EUROPE PREPARES FOR WAR RUSSIA CONTEMPLATES RESPONSE

 

Contrary to the bluster out of Washington, the talks in Switzerland seem to moving forward steadily. We can assume that half of the frozen assets of Iran have been returned. It is reported that the IAEA  representatives are joining the discussions which indicates that the framework for nuclear inspections is now being negotiated, this was considered to not happen until much further along.  Sanctions on Iranian oil sales have been lifted. All this indicates that these negotiations are moving forward and may be concluded well before 60 days. Of course, one can never predict exactly what will happen tomorrow.

 

The Ukraine conflict is now in the process of hot escalation, while Russia continues to incrementally advance on the battlefield, Ukraine, with use of drones, has been increasing attacks on Russian infrastructure. It is having an effect that Russia can no longer ignore. The supply of western supplied drones has increased dramatically in numbers and quality. It seems they have been supplied by the UK, Germany and the U.S. The sentiment in Russia is growing for some sort of attacks on NATO manufacturing to send a message that Russia understands this is a NATO/Russian conflict. It could be a conventional attack which many suspect will require a conventional response in retaliation, this will then set the stage for nuclear retaliation. 

 

One has to wonder if the expedited deal with Iran is influenced by the expected critical escalation in Ukraine. While the Iran conflict created a major economic crisis, the conflict in Ukraine could become far more dangerous, very quickly. The major NATO members have been increasingly talking of war with Russia and now they are considering converting  their manufacturing assets to war production. This is also being considered in the U.S. 

 

Whether it is real or an attempt at intimidation, the net result could be the same. Russia will not submit to this intimidation and the outcome could be a quick escalation to all out European war.  This, of course, would soon engulf the entire globe. 

 

It does appear that a pivotal point is approaching in Europe and, so far, little real diplomacy is to be seen. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lying about the Iran situation is having consequences.

 REASONS WHY NEGOTIATION IS THE BEST OPTION

IT WILL BE REVEALED IN TIME

 

Many are shocked that the U.S. would go down the negotiation route especially when the outline of negotiations will allow Iran to survive, sell oil and potentially prosper in the future. It appears they will retain the right to nuclear enrichment for commercial reasons and submit to inspections. The sanctions on them will be lifted for the first time in 47 years. Their frozen assets will be given back. Why is this happening ,when it has been reported that Iran has been decimated, their military no longer exists and they are on the so called ropes. Misinformation about this conflict, in an attempt to call the result a win has now come back to cause wide spread disbelief as to why this is the best option. Here are some of the reasons.

 

1. Both the U.S. and Israel were dangerously short of air defense interceptors. There has been a coordinated effort to minimize the damage caused by Iran's ballistic missiles on U.S. bases and Israel.

 

2. The attacks on Iran were possible using stand off missiles fired from Naval assets and air to ground missiles fired outside Iranian air space. While huge numbers of standard bombs are available they would require aircraft to fly over Iran and contrary to the narrative, Iran never turned on their air defenses ,understanding it would make them vulnerable to stand off weapons. The U.S. was not flying over Iran. If we recall the missing pilot saga, no longer talked about, it seems this was covert action to possibly retrieve the nuclear material, it ended badly, with the loss of 2 fighter jets, 4 helicopters and 2 other aircraft, the retrieved ordinance officer is still not identified, possibly because it was not an American. This did not happen because Iran no longer had air defenses.

 

3. It became clear that defeating Iran would require boots on the ground with the possible massive casualties in both ground troops and air support. It would have propelled the U.S. into to an extended war requiring the call up of troops with no clear assurance of quick victory. The geography, population and years of preparation made Iran a formidable opponent.

 

4. The strait of Hormuz put this whole thing on a clock, the worlds oil reserve were becoming depleted,  The Embargo was weak since Iran has access to the Caspian sea and multiple land routes.

 

5. Russia and China views Iran as a pivotal asset for their future commercial business, strategic location on the east west and north south routes. They would have supplied Iran in any prolonged conflict that could have tied the U.S. down for a very long time and drained its resources.

 

6. Iran still had substantial missile capabilities, it threatened to destroy the desalination and oil resources of the region if its infrastructure was attacked, we can assume that the U.S. intelligence understood this reality.

 

Then there is the reality that Iran has been moving in a more moderate direction, with a view that it wanted to become a player in BRICS and  become a less confrontational actor. It has shown restraint even with the assassination of its leadership, attack on it school girls, it did not become enraged and lash out, without purpose, it mostly engaged in measure retaliation to attacks.  It has been rational in its negotiations and firm in demanding that it desired to become a member of the world community. 

 

Trump did not go down the negotiation path because he did not want to defeat Iran, but because the cost in that endeavor was not predictable, very high, with no assurance of victory. This is the same calculation that 4 other presidents came to, ,after careful analysis from objective U.S. analysts. This war has given Iran the leverage to change the direction of its relationship going forward. It could be the best result for everyone, if successful.

 

 

 

 

 

Is Trump hoping to end talks?

 WE WILL KNOW SOON IF TRUMP WANTS TO END THIS

TRASH TALK WILL GAIN NOTHING 

 

The opening of talks in Switzerland began very rocky, mostly due to outrageous trash talking by Trump. Trump told Iran they better cooperate or he would take over their country and that they may not ever get back home, a direct threat to the lives of the negotiators. This is similar talk that ended the 1st. talks in Pakistan. He also threatened to take over the strait and charge tolls. It seems the talks have not been ended,  the strategy is is not clear,  is Trump attempting to be tough for Israeli and domestic neocon consumption? It is just making Trump look unhinged.

 

While the narrative is ongoing that this agreement is a bad deal, no one has come up with an alternative. 

 

Many are calling for renewed military action, it is clear that more action will cause a retaliation from Iran that will seriously damage the oil infrastructure of the region, and will cause a global economic crisis. A renewed air war would need to attack infrastructure and Iran does have the capacity to do the same in the region.

 

A ground war with Iran has not been seriously considered by any real military people, it would be a costly catastrophe. 

 

Continuing as is,  unsustainable, as world oil reserves have only weeks left, this conflict needs to be ended very soon.  

 

A settlement may be the only way to save Israel from itself. It is doubtful that Israel can sustain these conflicts and if it escalates and threatens nuclear war, the possibility of other major world powers coming to the conclusion that the quickest way to end all this is a massive attack on Israel. They could be destroyed in bours and what good would a response from the United States accomplish at that point.

 

The reality is, this conflict needs to end very soon and odds are that it will.

 

 

 

Consequences of Iran war will be long term.

 IT APPEARS DECISION HAS BEEN MADE TO  MOVE FORWARD

OIL PRICES TO REMAIN ELEVATED, POLITICAL WARS INCREASE

Word is out, ships are beginning to move in the strait of Hormuz, while only a fraction of former traffic, it can be expected to increase in the coming days. Oil futures prices have fallen, but it appears that it will take many months for prices to normalize. Demand will rise as Governments attempt to replenish reserves drawn down in recent months. Most reserves were within weeks of being depleted.

It is reported that Vance has canceled his meeting in Switzerland due to logistics problems or an attempt to not give ammunition to the opposition to this deal. We should expect negotiations will now be conducted with little transparency and little drama. 

While many sceptics, with good reason, have doubted the sincerity of this deal on Trump's part, it does, at least for now, look like Trump has made the decision to end this. A difficult decision, but all the other options would result in a long term commitment that could have lasted years. It may be that now that that decision has been made it will be implemented quickly.

The political consequences are just beginning, the political warfare will be intense from those who wanted to keep this going for years. We will hear that just a little longer, or a few more attacks would have made the difference and the government would have collapsed. Same litany that we have heard for years in diverse places all the while the debts keep exploding the deficits increasing and economic peril increases at home. The consequence of this war are going to be costly, but Trump is experienced in cutting his loses when staying engaged would be worse.

Israel will need to make adjustments to its policy's, whether it wants to or not, We can expect their own domestic political situation will be intense as well. It is predictable that other crisis's and other challenges will soon take the attention of  us all. 

Will Trump revise his policy in other fronts?

 HOW ABOUT NORMALIZING RELATIONS WITH CUBA?

OR WILL HE NOW DOUBLE DOWN IN THIS HEMISPHERE?

The repercussions of Trump's decision to end this Iran war are far from over, they most likely have just begun. We can expect that if this MOA is signed and begins to transpire, the opposition will organize in ways to make life difficult for Trump. The reality is that 30+ years of military and economic intervention have run up an enormous debt, deeply divided the nation at home and caused the U.S. standing in the world to be at a historical low. Never the less many factions want more of the same and Trump did promise to change direction of the country, it does appear that Trump has made the decision to change direction in the middle east. Will he also change direction in his approach to the other crisis's festering around the world?

The reality is the U.S. is not, at its roots, the power it once was, one of the reasons for the pause in this conflict was the enormous expenditure of precision weapons could not be sustained. This is can attributed to years of military action, a diminished manufacturing base and dependence on others for strategic supplies. It became apparent that Iran was not going to fall from air power alone and the world could not maintain an oil embargo without drastic consequences. All the naysayers keep up the narrative about finishing off Iran without any real plan to do it. Trump was on the hot seat, he looked at all the options, even nuclear weapons, and finally came to his only real option, especially if he felt he would like to do other things than engage in war for the rest of his term.

The lesson is similar in the Russia/Ukraine conflict, a neutral non aligned Ukraine could have been the most prosperous country in eastern Europe, the EU, particularly Germany, had a cushy energy arrangement with Russia that allowed them to prosper, but threw it all away due to the Neocon dream of dismembering Russia. So far, they cannot suck it up and change direction. 

All the while, China sets an example of non-intervention, growing their economy and infrastructure at home and making mutually prosperous deals with all those willing to partner with them. 

The U.S. cannot maintain its global power by military force, unless it wants to go nuclear on all its adversaries, a real self destructing idea, that some are entertaining. The West needs a new perspective on the global security and economic realities of the 21 St. century. Hopefully, the Iran war can be lesson and hopefully it will be successful.

It looks like Trump is ready to move on.

 THE MIDDLE EAST WILL NOT BE THE SAME

THERE WILL BE INCREASED FOCUS ON ISRAEL

There are now leaked reports on the upcoming Iran/U.S. deal. It also appears that we may be able to be more optimistic of a successful  new era in the region. If this deal is concluded by August 19, as is planned, it will in effect, normalize relations between the U.S. and Iran and also between the other Persian Gulf countries. At this point we can only be hopeful.

The reality is that the U.S. understood that the oil reserves all around the world were almost depleted. Iran understood that this may be the best opportunity for normalized relations since 1979. There are huge incentives for both sides to make this happen. If this is signed and 1/2 Iran's frozen assets are released at that time it will indicate that the U.S. is serious. All the other nations in the gulf need this to happen, there are plenty of incentives for all.

Of course, the sticking point is still Israel. We should expect that there there will be pressure for Hezbollah to commit to a ceasefire and pressure for Israel to withdraw from Lebanon. While this will be unpopular with the leadership in Israel, if the deal is moving forward with Iran in a respectful manner by both sides, they will be under enormous world pressure to end the fighting in Lebanon. All a first step for a better outcome for everyone in the region, including Israel. It can be expected that any escalation or other attempts to sabotage this deal by Israel will be closely monitored, and if Iran can gain confidence, they may be able to be convinced to not respond militarily.

Of course, if this deal if consummated, it is not the end, but only the beginning for a comprehensive agreement for whole region. 

Trump's right decision, Israel pledges war to go on.

 IF REAL, TRUMP HAS BIT THE BULLET

BEST DECSION FOR THE U.S. AND WORLD

While at present Trump is declaring victory, in the long run it could be the most pivotal decision of  his presidency.  Staying the course in Iran was a loser for the global economy and while few want to acknowledge it, when it all fell apart, Iran would be least of their troubles.  If Trump makes this happen, he will find that there is a time for humility and a new lesson in his life. He has shown he has the ability to change course.

The present deal may be a lesser deal than the one he was persuaded to scrap by Netanyahu several years ago. If he can gain the trust of Iran, he may be able to actually make a long term difference in the region. Actually, a better deal was near completed in Geneva before the February attack. 

The former deal by Obama and now this move to diplomacy has actually brought Iran into  a closer alignment with the world community. Iran has shown patience, and mostly engaged in retaliation, the escalation was consistently on the part of the U.S. and Israel. Iran has shown restraint and the ability engage in effective diplomacy. The reality that Iran had the capability to destroy the oil infrastructure of the region and throw the world into a economic crisis, but did not, has shown the world that Iran is not necessarily a ideological extremist. 

I suspect that all the Muslim nations in the region are ready to make some sort of peace with Iran, I suspect that Iran is also ready for a new effort for peace in the region. The citizens of Israel should take a hard look at where their future was headed and consider some other options in their policies. While their leaders claim they are winning, they have lost a lot in the last 3years. It is not too late.

The present narrative out of Israel is that will continue in their war with Iran, that they will engage in covert actions and internal subversion to overthrow the government of Iran. I hope they decide that approach is not in their best interest. 

This can be an opportunity, but a rational and humanitarian solution for the Palestinian question is fundamental to solving the long term future of the region.

Day 107, Deal completed? Signing now June 19?

 NETANYAHOU SAYS ISRAEL NOT PART OF DEAL

ISRAEL ATTACKS LEBANON, STRAIT STILL NOT OPEN

Both sides seem to indicate that they have agreed to the framework for an end to hostilities in the region. Most do not believe it will actually be the end of this conflict, just a pause until after the November elections and a period of normalized oil supplies.

Netanyahu refuses to exit Lebanon or cease hostilities with Lebanon. Yesterday Trump convinced Iran not to retaliate against Israel for its renewed attacks on Lebanon. Most believe the Trump/Netanyahu rift is just theater. Iran did not retaliate for now, but there is no question that if the attacks continue they will.  Trump does have the leverage to demand compliance from Netanyahu, either by cutting off all offensive weapons to Israel or just pledge to stand back and not participate in Israel's defense if they do not comply. It would be a first for Trump and would go a long way in increasing his credibility.

Below is a summary of the major parts of this agreement, no one has yet seen the most up to date version.

1. Non-aggression treaty for the future.

2. Iran will retain control of Strait.

3. Iran can enrich for commercial purposes.

4. Lifting of Primary sanctions.

5. Lifting of secondary sanctions.

6. Termination of UN security council resolutions condemning Iran.

7. Termination of IAEA resolutions against Iran.

8. Payment of compensation to Iran.

9. Withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region.

10. Cessation of war on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

This is the rough idea of what is being considered, and if a deal is actually signed on Friday, it will begin with opening the strait by both sides, a return of 1/2 the frozen assets of Iran and negotiations to be concluded in the following 60 days. This will concern the nuclear agreement which will be similar to what was part of the original deal from 2015.

Most question the sincerity of the U.S. in all this, feeling it is more about oil prices and political convenience until after the next election. It is a real opportunity for a comprehensive security agreement for the region, if that is what they really want.

Day 104, Trump, War over? doubtful.

 MORE WAR, THEN PEACE, TESTING AMERICANS GULLIBILITY

HOW LONG CAN CREDIBILITY LAST?

Yesterday, the world was whipsawed by competing narratives coming out of the White House. More intense war, oil markets rise, then peace, oil markets fall, the same pattern that has been going on for now months. I suspect that any proclamations coming out of the White House are now considered just so much verbiage without any substance. It can be assumed that much of he world is feeling the same. This pattern is the quickest way for a President to become irrelevant.

This whole ceasefire was called for by Trump, tentatively agreeing to Iran's position, then when it came to real negotiations, it all evaporated. In reality, Iran has not changed it position and neither has the U.S.  Lets face it, Trump is hoping for Iran to capitulate and give him a clear victory. Iran, a nation that is in an existential fight for its survival, not just its government, but its nation, which has been under sanctions and assault for its entire modern existence is demonstrating that it has the social cohesion and military ability to demonstrate a lasting deterrence. This whole fiasco is weakening the U.S. and giving Iran credibility in the world community. I suspect that saying that is tantamount to treason, everyone is supposed to be on board exclaiming the virtues and power of the U.S. while in effect it is diminishing by the day.

Together  with the Ukraine/Russian war, another conflict that was expected to be over in weeks and is now in its 4th year, all in the hope of maintaining world control and control of the politics and resources of Russia and Iran, have in effect decimated the economies of Europe and soon the U.S. The debts are piling up, the internal social fabric disintegrating and the credibility of their governments evaporating. Exactly opposite of the goals that these wars were expected to enact.

It seems the leadership class is without the ability to change course, either from hubris or just unable to neutralize those with other agendas, either way, it is likely going to end with a diminished nation in all respects.

Day 103, War back on, Strait closed.

 U.S. ATTACKS IRAN, IRAN STRIKES U.S. BASES

IRAN DECLARES STRAIT CLOSED FOR EVERYONE

Dueling narratives from both sides, the U.S. claims it's strikes are defensive and Iran retaliates, more of the same, but just escalating. Trump claims the U.S. has been sneaking ships through the strait. Imagine sneaking 1000 foot long ships through a 20 mile wide waterway. We can assume the ships going through were with Iranian permission. Iran now states, no ships will be going through until escalation stops.

We can assume that this is going to be the situation for some time and the disruption of the flow of oil out of the gulf will continue. More are speculating that the U.S. actually wants the oil traffic disrupted, hoping, while it may damage Iran, it will cause economic worries for China. While it may hobble consumers in the U.S. it will damage China more and the U.S. will be less impacted than others. It may also increase dependence on U.S. energy and increase U.S. leverage. A sad way of trying to insure the U.S. remains relevant.

All this also takes the focus off of Israel's attacks on Lebanon and it seems there were no more attack by Iran on Israel.

It is amazing that oil prices have been restrained so far, when actual shortages begin that may be much harder to control.

Indications that the stock markets are possibly finally entering a new reality phase, we will see if this will cause another reevaluation of this conflict.

Chaos, instability and uncertainty seem to be outlook for the foreseeable future. 

Day 103, War some more.

 BACK TO WAR IN PERSIAN GULF?

U.S. STIKES IRAN, IRAN HITS U.S. GULF BASES

Yesterday a U.S. helicopter collided with a Iranian drone over the strait of Hormuz. Iran claims it was unintentional, while the U.S. responded with stakes into Iran.  Iran then responded with strikes on U.S. bases in the gulf. It is not clear if this is going to continue or just another strike and respond incident.

Little talk of any negotiations in progress. 

Reports claim that the U.S. staged  airborne troops in Israel for a planned attempt to capture Iran's Kharg island, it now may be another cancelled covert mission.

Most likely this tit for tat will continue for some months, until the U.S. and Israel feel they are ready for another go at Iran or until some other crisis erupts to distract.

It is doubtful that any peaceful resolution is on the immediate horizon. 

Day 102, Economic or political exhaustion, not military victory.

 WHO WILL BE FORCED TO END THIS BY NECESSITY?

THE CLOCK IS NOW TICKING QUICKLY

It is clear, there is no serious negotiation that will be acceptable to the U.S., Iran and Israel. At present, everything is sort of in limbo, but it is becoming clear that a military victory is unlikely. It is more likely that exhaustion or financial necessity will be what brings this conflict to a close.

The U.S. is the most powerful player in this affair, at least militarily. It is clear that 40 days of bombing have not eliminated Iran's ability to do damage, that is why there was a call by Trump for ceasefire in the first place. So far, the damage to the world economy due to the interference in energy supplies has been managed by expending reserves, and there is a limit to how long that can be sustained. The reality is that the flow of energy out of the Persian gulf must happen and soon.   

The calls from the hard core Neocons and Israel to finish off Iran assumes that Iran is a sitting duck and an easy kill, serious analysts understand that this is not true. Iran has made it clear that a further resumption of attacks will result in Iran taking out the Persian gulf energy production facilities for possibly years, Iran does have that capability. This will result in a global financial crisis that no one will escape. At present, Iran has not pre-emptively attacked anyone,  but they are retaliating to any attacks by the U.S. and Israel, both on Iran and Lebanon.

It seems Trump has hoped that an embargo would bring Iran to accept his demands, this is unlikely, as Iran as alternative corridors through the Caspian sea and Pakistan. It is near impossible to enforce a total blockade on Iran. The clock is ticking for Trump both economically and politically. 

Iran is geographically a fortress that will not be defeated without massive ground forces and there are not enough forces available and logistics of such an enterprise are not being entertained by anyone. Iran has been under sanctions and assault for 47 years, that is why they constructed such a massive underground defense system. The hope of an internal revolt has been much exaggerated. While there is internal disagreements, the assassinations and massive bombing has united the country as it would any nation. I suspect, that while suffering, they can outlast the U.S. and Israel. The delusion in the west that Iranians view Israel and the U.S. as benevolent saviors is just stupid.

Israel is now in the weakest position, the idea postulated by the present leadership that Israel is an emerging super power is dangerously delusional. It is completely dependent on the U.S. for its ultimate security. The U.S. is experiencing  its own problems of over extension after years of war, both it the middle east and Ukraine. Another reason for the call for a ceasefire was the shortage of precision munitions.

Israel's army is being exhausted after 3 years of continuous fighting and the idea of expansion and occupation is near impossible for a small population. There is a limit to how long Israel can continue militarily, economically and more importantly politically. The opposition at home is not for peace but for more war, how is that situation going to be reconciled?

The real solution is a comprehensive negotiation to settle all disputes, at present no can even talk directly to each other, a real solution would take years to accomplish and at present there is no will for anything like that. It will only end with the brutal reality of exhaustion and an inability to continue.

U.S. and Israel continue conflict.

 THERE IS NO PEACE PLAN

TRUMP AND BIBI ARE ON THE SAME PAGE

We continue to hear that Trump is admonishing Netanyahu for attacking Lebanon and that Trump desires an end to this conflict, it is all for domestic consumption and is all part of the plan. Neither want peace until there there is no opposition to their long range plans. Netanyahu has the vison of a region subservient to Israeli control and Trump wants to control the resources in the Persian gulf.

The goal is to cut off oil to China and Asia in an attempt to end the global move to an alternative economic system. Iran is geographically pivotal to this alternative system and the hope is make Asia more dependent on U.S. energy as a means of control. The same applies to the Russian/Ukraine conflict, hampering of Russia's ability to supply oil to this alternative economic group is part of the goal. The same goes for the supposed divide between the U.S. and NATO counties, just more psyops.

This plan has been underway for some time, the only question is, does the U.S. have the manufacturing base to keep up this conflict for the years it may take to be accomplished? Can the U.S. economy be sustained with massive debts and the effects of this enterprise on the global economy? Can the West prevail internally with increasing inflation and a deepening political divide? It seems it is an all or nothing gamble. 

The alternative would be to pursue goals of a sound currency and a strong economic and manufacturing base at home. A sound footing that could compete and also seek cooperative relations with the goal of mutual prosperity. The U.S. is not or has not been in a position of threat from none of these supposed adversaries. The real risk is an internal breakdown of the financial system that is unsustainable with current policies. 

Maintaining control of the global economic and political system will not insure the wellbeing of the nations citizens or those of Europe, it seems it is all about maintaining the privileged system of the Epstein class. The risk is that by pursuing this agenda they will destroy the future for us all.

Consensus growing, Iran is now Nuclear.

 PERFECT TIME FOR COMPREHENSIVE MIDEAST AGREEMENT

THE RATIONAL SHOULD ALL BE READY TO END WAR

There are increasing reports that Iran has joined the nuclear club and that they may soon make that reality clear. These reports are coming from several different sources and claim that soon after the death of the Ayatollah Kaimani, the stance was changed by his successor and that they have now nuclear weapons that are capable of being delivered by Missles.

While no tests have been conducted, it is also been speculated that they will soon demonstrate and announce that they are now a nuclear power. While it is very possible that this is a reality, it is also possible that they are engaging in a coordinated false narrative for political purposes. I suspect that this will be revealed in the coming days.

While Trump keeps threatening more military action, many in Washington are pushing for this, it seems that he is unwilling to play Russian Roulette with the world economy. Most agree that a new round of military action will result in the elimination of  Persian gulf oil from the world market for an extended time. It is clear that Iran has that capability.

While there is talk of negotiations and talks have all been through intermediaries and no direct talks between the U.S. and Iran have happened since Islamabad, many months ago. One must believe that if meaningful risk free military action was possible it would have happened by now. The idea that a U.S. embargo will bring Iran down is becoming less of an option, with different routes available in the north.

I suspect that the Gulf countries are ready for peace, I believe Iran is also ready, but not by submitting to unrealistic demands. All the other countries in the region are ready. The world economy is ready. The U.S. should be ready and it may time for Trump to exhibit some real courage and declare he is now ready for real negotiations for comprehensive deal that will settle the Palestine future in a serious and humanitarian way. It would indeed be the deal of the century. 30 years of war should be enough for the rational to step up and make it happen.