Will Bond and Energy markets wait until after election?

  WILL WAR RESUME SOONER RATHER THAN LATER?

LOGISTICS IS THE BIG QUESTION

 

Trump is claiming that he will decide to escalate war after the elections, just saying that indicates that he would prefer to not wait that long. The bond market is indicating that it is not willing to wait another 6 weeks. today the 30 yr is at 5.54%, 10yr 5.23 and 3 yr 5.06%, if this trend continues, war may be the least of his worries.

 

I suspect war would be underway now if the materials, troops and all the necessary details would allow for it, but the logistics for modern warfare is becoming increasingly difficult. Particularly against Iran, a natural fortress, with all areas of possible staging within range of Iranian missiles. If it was possible to have defeated Iran by military action it would have already been accomplished. 

 

It seems that tankers, and troops are being deployed to the region. Saudi Arabia may be the preferred staging area, hence the ongoing attempt by Saudi Arabia to neutralize the Yemen forces. The plan is probably a massive air campaign and a limited ground operation to take control of the strait of Hormuz.  

 

The hope would be to use the limited precision weapons to take out Iran's air defenses and offensive capabilities and then follow up with massive carpet bombing with B-52 a B1 bombers. The first priority would be to take out the air defenses, if not successful the bombers would be in danger of being taken out. It is assumed that Russia and China have assisted in beefing up Iran's air defense. Any successful attack on Iran will be a series of successful steps, any one unsuccessful step could be catastrophic. At the same time Iran's offensive capabilities will need to be eliminated or the worlds oil supply could be limited for years to come. The goal will be to take out Iran's infrastructure and make it impossible to sustain it' s population for the foreseeable future. A failure by the US will be the end of its influence in the region.

 

While oil and bond market pressure may be in a hurry for stability, an actual resumption and a positive outcome may be far into the future.  

 

 

 

 

 

No end to either conflict, Bond market screaming.

 ENDING WAR ONLY HOPE TO SAVE ECONOMY

WE ARE ALL GOING DOWN

 

It is clear that Trump would like to put the Ukraine war on hold and focus on destroying Iran. Not an end, just a pause, to allow Ukraine to rearm and recover before the winter. Russia has made it clear, there will be no ceasefire or let up until a final real negotiation is consummated. 

 

Europe wants war with Russia, as long as they can suck the US into doing the heavy lifting. Very difficult, while bogged down in the Persian gulf, especially with shortages of precision weapons and an already over stretched NAVY. 

 

Netanyahu will not let Trump let up on Iran, Trump is most likely going to go all in with a ground and air campaign and he may have to do it sooner rather than later. Reserve forces have been called up and are now on there way to somewhere in the gulf. They were told it will be for a minimum of 1 year. A serious ground operation would take 6 months of preparation, Trump does not have that much time or enough forces, it will be a deadly gamble for all involved.

 

Trump claims that if Iran submits it will be a great nation, prosperous and a leader in the region. Iran like Russia understands that if they submit they will become Libya, there will be no submission by either. 

 

At the same time another fight is brewing and that is high energy prices which are being manipulated daily, but as soon as actual shortages become the issue, there is no ceiling or manipulation possible. 

 

Then there is the bond market, today a 30 year is at 5.46 %, 10 year 5.16% and the 5 yr 5.02 %. indicating that trust in the US financial system is on shaky ground.  This is going to make the deficit and debt problem a real issue very soon. In fact, this could be the real battle that moves to the forefront before any military conflict can be resolved.

 

 

 

 

Beware of $5000 Trojan Horse.

DIGITAL CURRENCY YOU CAN'T REFUSE 

WILL YOU LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR FUTURE? 

 

Trump's latest offer of $5000 to all adults, if the Republicans win the election, may have a double agenda. We should all know that the US debt is now unrepayable and is also unsustainable. One of the solutions that has been put forward is the use of stable coins. These coins are to be used as currency. Each coin is equivalent to $1 and is backed by US debt. It is an effort to continue to finance the continually rising debt.

 

Now I want to make it clear what I am about to convey is speculation on my part, but we are on the verge of dramatic crisis that will require dramatic solutions, but most likely not real or sound solutions. The real solution is fiscal responsibility, not more financial shenanigans.

 

Now consider, what if the $5000 gift to every adult would be paid in stable coins rather than in dollars. That would add up to 245 million citizens needing a stablecoin account to receive the payout. That $1.3 trillion would only be exchangeable with retailers who have such accounts. Walmart, Amazon and every other retailer would want access to all that digital currency, so in one giant action much of the country would be persuaded to adopt digital currency. 

 

Now once everyone has the proper account it will become a major part of the US economy and possibly in the international economy. 

 

Since the transactions are going to be funneled through the Trump bank and possibly other banks, they will earn the interest on the debt represented by these stable coins. At 5% that would be $65 billion and possibly another 2 % transaction fee,  another $25 Billion.

 

Now while that is impressive, once everyone is set up to do these transactions, one could again speculate that the Federal government and possibly all governments could use this system for all government payments, wages, social security, medicare  etc. . No stablecoin account, no receipt of payments. Again, all those stablecoins backed by US debt at $2.7 trillion x 5%, would earn $135 Billion, by the banks handling the transactions, plus an incalculable amount of transaction fees.

 

It is likely that with a little political pressure every company would also move to all payments and wages in digital currency. 

 

I suspect that a voluntary move to digital currency would be resisted by a large segment of the population, but a move that would be encouraged by a windfall would be hard to resist. Would you refuse to accept the payout? 

 

The dollar is under assault,  not due necessarily to evil intentions, but the reality that government spending in excess of its ability has devalued the purchasing power of the dollar. It may be tempting to continue the irresponsible financial policies by replacing a already fake currency, the dollar, with a digital currency that will take away peoples ability to choose and have control of the fruit of their labor.  

 

Such a currency would make it possible for the government to decide what would be acceptable to purchase and from who. It is a system that would be envied by every government existing today. 

 

Again, all speculation, I suspect both parties in the country would love to control such a system. Hopefully, this warning, will help raise citizens awareness of dangers that are coming in the future as the debt crisis will offer opportunities to those who seek more power and control. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Asia trade, Whose their Daddy.

 CHINA IS THE MAJORITY TRADING PARTNER

CAN THE US FORCE THIS TO CHANGE?

 

 

 

 

A look at the map above does not need an explanation and it is unlikely that it has improved since 2024. Is it practical for these nations to be forced into using the dollar as its trading currency? Geographically they are closer and China does offer them a wide variety of useful goods. 

 

I suspect the vast majority of trade with the US is military arms.

 

Of course today, due to the ongoing conflict, these gulf countries have very little income, little trade and an uncertain future.  It could be that the above numbers are part of the real reason that they are now caught in this situation. They have all become major trading partners with China, including Israel. I suspect with a free choice they would continue to these kind of trading numbers.

 

It is interesting that Saudi Arabia who has been trading oil in other currencies, rather than the dollar is now in a precarious situation. In fact, just this week Saudi Arabia has pledged to not use the BRICS payment settlement system in the future. 

 

An escalation of the war with Iran will likely end the income for all these gulf nations for many years, cut off China from the regions oil and open the door for US complete control of gulf resources.

 

That is if it can maintain its economic and military ability and internal political stability to continue on this path.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Is global economic crisis last hope to save dollar hegemony?

 ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY FOR THE EPSTEIN CLASS

WEALTH AND POWER ARE RELATIVE

 

As we teeter on the edge of world economic crisis one has to wonder why it looks like a strategy rather than a consequence of poor decisions. The Russia/Ukraine war could have been avoided with just accepting a neutral Ukraine. It could have been ended within months in Istanbul. The Iran war also could have been avoided as Iran had accepted most of the conditions in Geneva, days before the  war was started by the US and Israel.

 

There is lots of evidence that these wars were desired and also that they are not in a hurry to actually end them. It is also clear that these wars are an effort to short circuit the move to an alternative economic system, not dependent on the dollar. A system evolving to neuter the ability of the US to economically damage or destroy those that do not submit to US power.

 

Now we have been told that the Russians and the Chinese are our mortal enemies and that they want to destroy our way of life and they need to stopped by any means. This of course also includes Iran and any other nation that does not bend the knee.  

 

Lets face it, maintaining the supremacy of the dollar is not going that well, Its standing has eroded year by year, not by conspiracy of our enemies but by the irresponsibility of our leaders. It is the ultimate power of the US and we are witnessing that our military power has limitations. Limitations that will be further eroded by of own economic nonsense and diminishing manufacturing base.

 

The US cannot be restored to is strong base in weeks or years but only by decades of sustained perseverance and disciplined work. 

 

We have to wonder if the ruling class sees the handwriting on the wall and understands that their power over others is coming to an end and the last hope is to bring the whole system down, everyone diminished, many destroyed, so they are still number one even a very reduced level.

 

If you have $1000 and everyone has $1 you are now rich. If much of the world is lacking food and energy and you are surviving even at a reduced level, you are still relatively rich. 

 

Building bunkers for survival to be able to take advantage of the opportunities for unprecedented wealth and power in the future, while most of the world is destroyed is not a new evil strategy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

World economy needs an end to 1 war.

 TAKE YOUR PICK RUSSIA OR IRAN

MOST LIKELY NOT WITH A VICTORY 

 

As we are now in the midst of escalating war both in Europe and Western Asia, it is clear neither can be won easily or quickly and the world economy cannot survive two existential wars at one time. This is doubly critical as both are major oil producing regions. 

 

So, which war can be ended most quickly? Which war will have the the most immediate effect in a positive outcome for the world?

 

The Russia/Ukraine war is escalating by the day, with massive damage being inflicted on both Ukraine and Russia. The damage to Russia's oil refineries are having a serious effect on the availability of refined products causing problems globally. This war, underway for 4 years, is also the most complicated to end.  Ukraine cannot win this war, and the worst result would be an existential threat to Russia's security from NATO. Russia has the ability to end such a result very quickly that would be catastrophic for the world. Neither Ukraine or NATO is willing to come to any agreement at this time. this war will not be ended quickly.

 

The Iran war is far less complicated, in fact, there is recipe to end this conflict on the table. It would require a decision to do that from the United States and the other details could be worked out, if there was good faith shown. The gulf oil supplies plus natural gas, fertilizer, Helium and other essential products could start flowing in a very short time. The alternative is another round of hostilities that will likely take these essentials off the market for not days or weeks but possibly years, it will be a global economic crisis with consequences beyond calculation.

 

The best course is to suck it up, end the gulf war and then focus on economic survival for all. 

 

 

 

 

 

Negotiations dead, Final showdown building.

 NEW SANCTIONS PUSH, US ISOLATION 

US IRAN PREPARE FOR FINAL SHOWDOWN

 

Those on the ground in Russia covering the elections report that the sentiment is clear, no new negotiations are coming and they expect major escalation to end this conflict. While Ukraine is hitting targets in Russia via drone warfare, Russia is systematically degrading Ukraine's ability to sustain this conflict. While they have not yet taken out the road and railway bridges over the Dneiper river, which would cut off eastern Ukraine from their supplies, they are taking down bridges and rails in other places.  It is becoming increasingly difficult to supply food, fuel and other essentials. It is clear that Russia expects to eventually take Odessa and Karkiv. Russia has made it clear that any NATO troops in Ukraine will be war with NATO.

 

Iran is expecting a massive Israeli US attack before the end of the year.  There is reason to believe this will be a massive air campaign and also some sort of ground operation. The problem is that the US bases in the gulf are unusable and that leaves operating out of Israel and Jordan and possibly Saudi Arabia. It seems this ongoing Ansar Allah conflict in Yemen may be preparing for that. Bombers need to operate from a ground base. Both Israel and the US have been refraining from using their weapons, likely in an effort to stockpile limited munitions. Trump would like to wait until after the elections, but Iran may feel all out war against Israel and the US and its fleet may be in their interest to engage before then.

 

Yesterday Congress passed 100% sanctions on any country doing business with Russia. This is primarily targeting China and India. Trump has not signed or enforce this and it is unlikely he will. China has stated that it will not enforce any sanctions on anyone and India says that if enforced it will be the end of US/India relations. At the BRICS meeting last week members agreed that they will not enforce unilateral non UN sanctions. I expect US retailers will be informing the white house of the risks of actually enforcing these sanctions.

 

It does look like the rest of 2026 will have lots of pivotal and dramatic happenings. Whether there will be any final resolutions of anything is doubtful, but we can expect increased economic, military and political chaos. 

 

 

 

 

Will the gulf states survive the current crisis?

 FRAGILE FOUNDATIONS UNDER STRESS

THE OTHER CLOCK THAT IS TICKING

 

Currently we see that the lowly Houthis or Ansar Allah, inflicting serious losses on Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia for some unknown reason escalated the simmering disputes and now things have escalated to a dangerous level. This is putting Saudi Arabia in a new internal political and economic crisis.

 

The reality is all the gulf countries are in trouble, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, UAE and Saudi Arabia have a combined population of 62 million. The politics is family dynasties in all these countries with of the 62 million, 32 million are foreign workers. This leaves around 30 million and much of this made up of royal family members and a host of diverse tribes.   The glue holding much of this together is money riches earned from oil wealth, something that has now been minimal for near 7 months. This is creating the biggest stress on the internal politics of these nations in the modern era.

 

While, so far, they have not suffered significant damage to their infrastructure as Iranian attacks have focused on US bases. This may eliminate the ability of the US to insure their internal stability.  Saudi Arabia is already suffering infrastructure damage from the ongoing Houthi action, effectively eliminating their oil revenue. US resources are stretched with its own crisis with Iran and the bleeding of resources in Ukraine.

 

Under stress, many of the old border disputes  arising from the lines drawn by the British Empire may arise not only in the gulf but into a far wider region. 

 

The Gulf countries, and many other countries are being forces to liquidate assets to keep their internal stability. The most liquid asset is Gold and then US treasuries. We have seen the US treasury attempt to intervene in the gulf and in Japan and South Korea but it may be  impossible to stop the bleeding. A bleeding that may prove to be fatal if not stopped quickly.

 

Then one must speculate is the dissolution of the gulf countries another intended consequence if one should desire to take control of the worlds oil resources. 

 

 

 

Trump's Audacity of Mendacity

DAILY  TALES WORTHY OF THE GRUNDSAU LODGE

TALL TALES CONTEST EVERY DAY

 

Lately I am reminded of memories of the Grundsau lodge and their tall tales contests. While never participating, as I was neither Pennsylvania dutch or part of the local farming community, I heard stories about the contest. In our area the usual winner was a large gentlemen whose profession was hauling cattle and owned a tavern. He had a reputation of being able to tell the most outrageous and fantastic stories with an eloquence that was fantastic in itself. He was able to tell tales that resulted in gut wrenching laughter and provided entertainment that was never matched. It was all in good fun and helped lighten the mood and pass time in the winter months.

 

What reminded me of this was the daily onslaught of tall tales I hear, while some may find them funny and entertaining, it is serious business now and just embarrassing and dangerous.  

 

I do not believe the Iranians are calling and begging daily for a deal. In fact, I suspect that there has been little interaction at all. As I recall, there was a media event signing of an agreement in of all place "Versailles " 

 

I can't help but understand, that rather than fanatical psychopaths, the Iranians seem to be more measured, more methodical and have a real plan, something I now suspect is lacking here at home. 

 

I doubt the US has a large supply of expensive sophisticated precision weapons. 

 

I don't believe the risk to the general well being of the population is worth this present standoff, that is now entering an entirely unprecedented dangerous territory.

 

I no longer believe either Zelensky or Bibi will do as they are told. In fact, it is more the other way around.

 

Stop, it is enough, perception does become reality in political campaigns but not war. Reality will win out and it results in death destruction and general suffering.

 

I supported the idea of an end to foreign interventions and immoral  rationalizations of our foreign policy. What happened to the good instincts that seem to have been replaced by the same old unrestrained path to decline and destruction. 

 

It may be the last chance for real down to earth Oval office address, conveying the real situation, the truth, as ugly as it may be. I suspect that the American people will have more understanding that people in Washington give them credit. It may be the last chance to save any credibility with anyone.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Decision time for Trump?

 CAN TRUMP WAIT UNTIL AFTER THE MIDTERMS?

MAKE PEACE OR GROUND WAR

 

It seems a pivotal moment in the Iran war is going to me made sooner rather than later. With fuel prices now escalating by the day and false narratives no longer being effective, it is clear that doing nothing is not an option, a  critical decision will need to me made possibly in days.

 

The options are a fulfillment of the Memorandum of Understanding,  an air escalation to destroy Iranian infrastructure, that will inevitably lead to a response by Iran that will destroy oil infrastructure in the gulf for many months, if not years.  Or a ground operation to take control of the strait of Hormuz.

 

There are indications that some sort of ground operation is being considered. Recent videos have shown a miles long train in San Diego loaded with over 125 military vehicles and containers. These vehicles appeared to be humvees and trucks and fuel trucks all with trailers and many containers along with generators etc. It looked like a load of auxiliary equipment for possibly a forward base. 

 

It is also being reported that South Korea had agreed to furnish some sort of military force. 

 

The problem with a ground action is where can they assemble a force that will not come under attack.  The bases in the gulf have been made inoperable and most US forces have moved to Jordan and Israel leaving a thousand mile trek across Iraq for a ground force, likely a suicide mission.

 

The other option is Saudi Arabia and one has to wonder if the Saudi action against the Houthis was not a preparation for just that.  It may also be that the Houthis understood the same and is that still a viable option?

 

The gulf countries are talking with Iran and may be considering some sort of understanding leading to an agreement without the US.  

 

An objective calculation leaves a return to the MOU, the problem is with Israel being the road block to any settlement with Iran, short of destruction. Israel may have to decide to make a decision of its own.

 

Trump will need to make a decision soon as doing nothing is going to bring down the world economy, as will the wrong decision. The MOU is the only least bad option left.

 

 

 

 

 

Another Oil shoe drops in Yemen.

 HOUTHIS TAKE OVER ALL OF WESTERN YEMEN

SAUDI PIPELINE TO RED SEA CLOSED 

 

The tit for tat hostilities between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia has now erupted into something else all together. The Houthis have quickly taken over all of the western part of Yemen and with it the western shore of the Red sea, including the  islands in the sea and the Bab El Mandeb Strait. The Houthis were able to interfere with shipping in the strait before, when they were near 100 miles from the strait but now they are in control of this strategic waterway.

 

At the same time the Iraqi militia has damaged the Saudi pipeline to the Red sea and it is now inoperable, cutting off the oil that has been bypassing the strait of Hormuz. It is reported that a major pumping station  has been destroyed that will take it off line for some time.

 

The Houthis were able to rout the Yemen and Saudi defenders of 3 major  bases and capture all the US equipment and supplies. Some fear they may actually target, Aden, the capital of Yemen, and then control the majority of the country.

 

This action essentially cuts off most of the oil being exported form the Persian gulf. This will have a dramatic effect on the cost of oil probably starting today. 

 

While Saudi Arabia has been bombing the Houthis, it has been ineffective and pleas for assistance from the US has not resulted in action.  The US may be reluctant to engage the Houthis as last years 30 day war resulted in a huge loss of drones and munitions without any result. All resources may be needed for future action against Iran.

 

This action is a major step in the ongoing oil and economic war that is underway.  It may now require some kind of immediate action rather than a waiting game until after the November elections.

 

 

 

Democrats, do I hear $6000.

 "VOTING YOUR POCKET BOOK" REACHES NEW LEVEL

DO YOU PREFER NEW BENEFITS OR CASH 

 

Donald Trump has offered $5000 to each adult if the Republicans win in November.  While buying votes has been the mainstay of "Democratic Socialism" for many decades, this is a first. While many may be outraged, I suspect some are considering a deal too good to refuse. For a household that is $10,000, a windfall for everyone, not just a few select groups.

 

While Trump says every adult American will get the check, watch out, it may disqualify those who  are not here legally and maybe only if you vote Republican. Trump has a way of moving the target, so it will require a lot of clarification.

 

I believe the Democrats are talking about 2 or 3 Trillion in new spending, so this is calculated a $1.3 Trillion. Cash in hand is often better than some thing that you may not live long enough to obtain, or if you qualify at all. 

 

Now, I also suspect that the first offer is never the best offer and if we can get a little competition going here we may be astounded at what we may reap in the end. After all, it is not Trump's money or the Democrat's money.

 

Ok, Democrats how about $5500 to get this game going.

 

 

 

 

 

Beware the economic tipping point.

 ONCE THE RECKONING BEGINS, IT MAY BE BEYOND CONTROL

OIL, INFLATION, BOND YIELDS SPELL TROUBLE

 

Yesterday we saw bond yields rise to 4.86 % on the ten year and 5.31 on the 30 year, this indicates a reluctance of investors to continue to finance the US debt. 

 

Oil prices are again near $100 and gas was $4.59, diesel well over $6. Heating oil will further reduce the ability of some to keep up. The war in the Gulf is expanding and escalating and the reserve supplies near exhaustion.

 

We can expect inflation to soar, no matter the indications released by the government. 

 

The underlying real problem, as in every economic decline, is massive overwhelming debt. Debt in government, particularly in the western world, corporate debt, private equity debt and household debt is at a level far higher than in 2008. The costs and inflation and proposed government spending and deficits will add to this mixture to create a very possible tipping point that once underway may be impossible to stop.

 

Bond yields are increasing because some believe the government cannot manage the debt and also because the gulf countries and others suffering from the oil crisis need to raise money by selling US debt.  One wonders how this can be reversed? The interest on the debt is going to skyrocket and financial shenanigans will not keep it under control.

 

Rising oil prices, especially diesel, will trigger possibly the biggest rise in inflation yet, especially in basic necessities. This will curtail current spending and inevitably lead to a domestic economic slowdown and possibly an inability to service domestic debt. A massive snowball effect that once started cannot be stopped until it is expended.

 

The US has had a policy of reversing every slowdown with massive injections of money into the system, 2008 almost became out of control but debt was never really liquidated. Can they actually find a way to inject massive amounts of cash into the system again, without exasperating every above problem?

 

Only a quick change of direct could possibly forestall this, and end to war and a resolve to control deficits. It looks like neither will happen. I suspect we are about to go for the ride of our lives. 

 

 

 

 

 

1970's decisions, roots of US decline.

 CLEAN AIR ACT AND OPENING WITH CHINA

DEFICITS, WEAKENED DOLLAR, FOREIGN COMPETITION 

 

I earlier related the 1971 decision to unlink the dollar from gold, https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/219171338015504465/7906932903235858989 , this action coupled with the beginning of constant yearly budget deficits was pivotal in the weakening of the US economic system.

 

In 1970 congress passed the "Clean air act", a measure to end air pollution in the United States, while a worthy objective, the measure set objectives to be reached by 1975 that were almost impossible for most companies to comply with.  Rather than a phase in for expansion or new builds it laid a heavy burden on often small and intermediate sized companies that could not be reached. This coupled with the reemergence of foreign competition which were recovering from WW2.  

 

I worked at the Emmaus foundry in 1972 as the company spend large sums attempting to comply, but it seemed to be perusing a moving target as regulation were demanding declines by dates rather than by possible compliance, the company closed in 1985, as did many thousands of foundries in the nation. As the foundries died so did the machine shops that finished these products. Castings soon were purchased oversees and often came in as finished products. Much of these products were outsourced to Canada and Japan.

 

In 1968 Bethlehem steel, that once had 30,000 employees, upgraded it main furnace in Bethlehem to an oxygen furnace, the build was accomplished by many thousand of construction workers.  In 1970 the company was at its peak of production and also spent millions in upgrading other plants. By 1975 foreign competition, legacy costs and continued regulation caused a decline in production and the blast furnace was shut down in 1995. The company was dissolved in 2003. 

 

This scene was played out all across the country. First Japan and then Chinese plants  unburdened by regulations, decimated the ability of the United States to produce the foundation for a strong manufacturing base. All the supplies and related machine shops disappeared at the same time.  The cost of rebuilding such plants is prohibitive and also the knowledge of production has slowly died and is no longer available. 

 

At the same time Nixon's historic visit to China in 1972 opened the way for China to be assimilated into the world economy. A massive population, much of it in poverty, Chinese history of innovation and now a market for their goods moved China into the modern world.  Nixon hoped to use this China initiative to wean China away from any cooperation with the Soviet Union. China in fact often followed the policies of an earlier time in the US to grow its manufacturing base, food production and now is the number 1 country in manufacturing, ship building and most innovation. It seems the politicians of the 1970's rested on the vast US economy built in former times assuming it would always be the case, no matter the policies pushed by both parties. Many still do not recognize that the US is no longer the economy it once was but has become a country of financial transactions rather than production, fueled not be wealth creation, but deficit spending and a continuing expansion of the money supply. There is little investment left for massive rebuilding as it is tied up in a $40 trillion debt of past spending.

 

The US cannot be restored by force or intimidation or more financial shenanigans, but only a rebuilding of basic industries and a sound financial policy. Sadly the majority of our leaders have no knowledge of making things, no understanding of wealth creation, only spending and money transfers. Our enemies are not in Russia, China or Iran, but right here at home. 

 

 

 

 

 

Ukraine rejects latest peace plan.

 NO PEACE ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON

WARS MAY CONTINUE FOR REST OF YEAR

 

The latest peace proposal was rejected by Ukraine. It seems the Russians anticipated that this would be the answer and gave little credence to the plan.

 

The plan was similar to other offers in the past, Ukraine would step back from Donbas, UN peacekeepers would mange the confrontation line. Ukraine would have UN supervised elections and then would agree to a neutral military status with no NATO or other military alliance. That is the basically what has been on the table since Anchorage, but now future Ukraine would be smaller. 

 

We can expect that the EU does not support such a plan. In fact they seem to still be talking about going to war with Russia. The UK, Germany, Norway and Finland have upped their Civil defense ads attempting to prepare their populations for attacks from Russia. This week Finland attempted a civil defense drill by ordering 2000 residents to show up at a mass shelter and it seems 100 actually showed up. it seems the population does not feel as threatened as the politicians. They claim that Russia is at a stalemate in Ukraine. but must prepare for an attempt to invade all of Europe.

 

Finland's ruling class is concerned that since they joined NATO and agreed to US bases in their country, Russia is building bases expected to house 70,000 troops on their border. They are also perplexed that Russia has restricted economic trade and generally ended decades of economic and social interaction. No one seems to understand that military alliances pose a threat to their neighbors.

 

The political landscape of Germany is changing with big loses for the present government, much of it fueled by the present governments talk of war with Russia and major efforts at rearmament. The UK and France are also encouraging Germany to rearms, Dejavu all over again.

 

Iran demonstrated a new anti-ship missile that should be warning concerning escalation.  They have also made it clear that they will step up enforcement of the control of the strait.

 

Cooling temperatures in the gulf may make the possible ground action look more enticing. No sign of peace anywhere, escalation is more likely. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Next step, Ground action?

 INDICATIONS OF GROUND ACTION IN IRAN

HOPING FOR POLITICAL SALVATION? 

 

There are increasing indications that some type of ground action against Iran may be on the horizon. While an all out invasion would require hundreds of thousands of troops and months of logistic support, a targeted or limited attack may be the next escalation option. 

 

There are reports of reserve forces being moved to the middle east and also a redeployment of troops out of Poland to an as yet not disclosed destination. With airborne and marines already in the region and we should expect with a limited time line after already being there for months. It is looking like some type of action may be coming and before the upcoming elections.

 

Netanyahu has been pushing for some type of ground attack for some time and with elections coming in Israel, more war will hope to keep himself in power. 

 

Trump is looking for some type of per-election win and may feel that this is the next roll of the dice to rally support. 

 

Iran may feel that a bait and bleed strategy will keep the population focused and give its military an opportunity to shed US blood. It would not be hard to entice a raid by leaking plans on nuclear implementation or some weak area of opportunity.

 

The recent division in the US military has had to do with proposed ground actions. It seems much of the military opposes this options, as it has for decades. They also opposed the war, but political considerations overrode that advice.  

 

With the political positives possible for all three combatants and time running out on fuel prices for the US, political risks for Netanyahu and a need for Iran's leadership to keep the population engaged, ground action is very possible, very soon.  

 

 

 

A brief history of money.

A BRIEF HISTORY OF MONEY

Money, we are all familiar with it, most want more, some to the point of  excess. It has been described as the, "Root of all Evil".  Realistically, we do need a certain amount, but I would like to talk about a simple brief history of Money.

Originally, most financial transactions were a form of barter,"I'll trade you a goat for that woven shirt that one of your wives made". Or,"I am tired of goats, how about we trade for some of your sheep". This all worked out well and good, but eventually someone got the bright idea of converting wealth to some form of exchange.

There is some record of salt being a form of exchange, or round stones with holes,  but most items were quick to lose their value when someone either found a pit with enough salt to flood the market or a method to mass produce stones with holes.

Eventually they settled on gold and silver as a form of money. Early records show that, as early as 2150 BC, the Shekel and Talent were used in the middle east, These were measures of weight,  A shekel was .36 of a troy weight oz. A Talent was equal to 60 manehs and 3000 shekels. This standard of weight was used by Egypt, Babylon, Phoenicia, Greece, Persia etc.  The ratio was 15 shekel's of silver = 1 shekel of gold.  Everyone had a balance scale to do business.

Finally, as governments grew and became more sophisticated, the minting of money began. This consisted of coins which were of a standardized weight, usually embossed with the image of  the King or individual in power at the time. It made trade much simpler and must have caused a recession in the scale business.

As is usually the case, it did allow for some skullduggery, clipping and shaving of coins was known to happen. Then Kings sometimes made the coins smaller with the same designation. This may have been the first form of Government endorsed inflation.  "Honey, were did we put that old scale?"

Interestingly, the size and weight of coins varied over the years, but the ratio of gold to silver was fairly constant from 500 BC up to the 20th Century.

Biblical  times-  12-1             Rome          12-1         Europe     0-1492        10-1

Early Greece      13-1             Early Japan  8-1                          1492-1834   15-1

Alexander          10-1             Early China  12-1        England                       16-1

The United States settled on the ratio of 15-1  The Constitution stated that all money was to be gold or silver coin.

O course, we have been talking about gold and silver coins. What about paper money?

In medieval Europe, gold and silver was the medium of exchange. When someone had a little more than needed for survival, they often placed it with a Goldsmith, who had a natural need for security in his business.  He would account for their items and give them a receipt.  The Rothschild's started out this way.  Humans sometimes being a little lazy, and not too careful about things, began to exchange the receipts for other goods and services and leave the gold with the goldsmith.  Goldsmiths, who were a little sharper than the average person of the day, soon realized that his receipts were as good as gold, and no one knew how much gold he really had stored for people. He was able to purchase Real-Estate, finance explorers to the new world and many other endeavors with his own receipts that did not represent gold in his possession. I could expound forever about how they used this power, but I will resist.

There were many known instances were these early bankers got a little too greedy, rumors circulated that there was more receipts than gold, and a run for their gold started.  When they could not produce the gold,  he might have been found hanging somewhere.

Remember, Politicians and Governments always take note of a good idea to increase their power and wealth.

Early paper money was a receipt for a weight of gold or silver, In the USA. a silver dollar was .7734 troy oz. of silver.  20 silver dollars could be exchanged for 1 Oz. troy of gold, a $20 gold piece. This was a ratio of 15-1. I personally remember silver certificates, which were supposed to be redeemable for 1 silver dollar. Up to 1934 you could exchange a $20 bill for a $20 gold coin. The US dollar had the reputation of being, "as good as gold". The gold-silver ratio today is 72-1.

In 1914, with passage of the Federal Reserve Act,  money no longer represented an asset, but would now represent Government debt. A promise to repay by the government.

In 1934, President Franklin Roosevelt, by executive order, ordered all citizens to turn in their Gold Coins in exchange for paper $20.00 bills. Private possession, or exchange of gold was outlawed. When the government decided they had confiscated all the gold they were going to get, they raised the price of gold to $35.00 oz., this was used for trade between countries. Those wonderful paper dollars they exchanged with the citizenry just became worth 43% less than the gold coins they exchanged.  Citizens were threatened with $10,000 fines and 10 years in jail for not cooperating.  Gold ownership was again legalized in December of 1974.

Silver still circulated as coins till 1964,  when they were replaced by alloys with no intrinsic value.

So now all money that exists, has  no intrinsic value, but only the confidence that someone else will exchange goods and services for it. While there are many instances in modern history where that confidence evaporated, so far most people are still willing to accept modern currency.

Currency itself is now in the process of being replaced with electronic currency, Bitcoin, Debit and Credit cards etc.. Endless possibilities, that will make the ancient clippers, shavers and dishonest goldsmiths envious.

originally published Oct. 12, 2015

It appears we are now coming to the end of fiat currency era, that is currency without any real built in value. What will replace it is yet to be seen. Big government would of course love to have currency that is just a digital entry, that they could manipulate, block, or devalue with a click of a computer. It seems some of the world is exploring another option that would be some form of real money. There is one of those age old truths that good money will always drive out bad money. That is true as long as there is an option of good money available. I expect we will seeing the new options in the near future. 
5/8/23

We now see the plan to introduce a central bank digital currency. Indeed, a monetary unit without any intrinsic value, unable to be held personally. It will allow governments to view every transaction, determine what transactions should be allowed, confiscate all wealth with the click of a computer key and in effect give government ultimate power over the people. It will be the end of all freedom of choice in a free market. It will give government the ability to tax, inflate, confiscate and dictate what can and cannot be traded. It will create all kinds of methods to avoid this trap and will be accompanied with the penalties to enforce that this is the only alternative money.

8/24/23

We can expect the unsustainable debt and deficits of the United States, accompanied by the desire of other countries to flee the use of the dollar, to reach a crisis in the near future. It is very likely that it will soon be clear that this debt will no longer find those willing to risk this haven for their real money. We can expect schemes to rescue this situation with possibly forced investment by IRA and 401's into U.S. debt or a sudden crisis followed by the end of this current fiat money system. We expect the cure to be total control of all assets.

5/3/2024

The EU is pushing to get its CBDC launched this year. As the debt situation in most of the western world is escalating many predict some sort of reset of the financial system. It will most likely be preceded by a debt crisis and then the roll out of the promised solution.

9/27/2024

We now see flight from U.S. bonds from countries around the world. It seems that interest rates are now possibly needed to rise to sell this debt. Those liquidating U.S. debt seem to be buying Monetary metal. The answer to shoring up the U.S. dollar and debt market is a balanced budget. With a $2 trillion deficit either raising taxes or cutting spending will cause a economic recession at best.

1/14/25

The purpose of this article is to hope to make people aware of what money is supposed to be. A store of value, an asset, not an instrument of manipulation by governments. 

3/17/2025

Gold is now $5200 an oz. silver $89.00 an oz. 57-1 ratio. No balanced budget in sight by any pollical party. The debt and deficits are unsustainable. The flight from fake paper money around the word continues.

2/27/2026

Debt continues to rise, gold and silver rise has paused during this Iran war, but the western banking and currency system is unsustainable. I reprint this with the hope that more will understand that money should be an asset under your own control.

6/1/2026

Bond yields approaching crisis levels, accelerating trade war all indicate some sort of changes to money in the future. Only sound real money can insure steady predictable prosperity and security. At present there is no real government issued money in existence.

9/3,2003 

Are energy prices and inflation about to escalate?

 NARRATIVE WILL NO LONGER CONTAIN ENERGY PRICES

WE SHOULD EXPECT MANY NEW RECORD HIGH PRICES 

 

The latest escalation of the conflict in Iran, coupled with the energy wars in the Russia/Ukraine conflict are now about to move costs to the next level and possibly actual shortages. The biggest increase are in diesel and heating oil. Today diesel is over $6.00 gallon and heating oil is at $5.20 a gallon. This is a result of the continued conflict with Iran and the damage being inflicted on western Russia's refining capacity.

 

Much of this has to do with refined products, especially diesel and aviation fuel. Much of these products are refined outside the United States and Russia has discontinued the export of Diesel fuel. Russia, even today, was still a producer of Diesel fuel for the United States.  The rise in diesel fuel prices will result in higher prices for everything, from food, every product that is transported, it will increase inflation and probably interest rates.

 

Bond yields exploded with the 2yr now yielding $4.40 %, ten year 4.81 % and 30 yr, 5.28%, this will dramatically add to the US deficit just in servicing its debt that is rising by the day. We may be on the precipice of a debt spiral that will bring down the world economy. Speeches, and optimistic narratives may no longer be effective. The realities of basic math will always overcome empty words.

 

While the G20 was an exercise in political gamesmanship the other meeting in Kyrgyzstan of the Shanghai cooperation Organization, SCO, was optimistic that their members will prosper with mutual cooperation. The presidents of the biggest members, Russia, China, India and Iran  with 8 other members and 15 associate members represent 40% of the worlds population and 25% of the worlds GDP. Their agenda was a multi polar economic alliance that is independent of the western economic system.

 

This meeting precedes the bigger more diverse BRICS meeting coming up Sept 12-13 in New Delhi. It will have a similar goal of cooperation and a multi polar economic system. All these nations have refused to cooperate with sanctions and other economic warfare. The sad reality is that endless war and economic sanctions have increased cooperation and which is in effect isolating those who have engaged in those practices.  

 

Hopefully the west will realize that it cannot control the world by force and intimidation and it is possible for coexistence and mutual prosperity. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Venezuela oil, A deal they could not refuse.

 THE OIL WARS CONTINUE

"THOU SHALL NOT STEAL", STILL RELEVANT TODAY 

 

It seems there is much celebration about the US just increasing IT'S oil reserves by 65 billion barrels. A so called "historic deal" that transfers the ownership of Venezuela's oil to the United states or to whoever it will designate. This contract is for 25 years. 

 

The acting president, Delcy Rodriquez has signed the deal without any vote by the population. She is an acting president and one wonders if she would be considered authorized by international law to even make such an agreement. It is very likely she was given the choice of taking the gold or getting the lead. I recall that she was publicly told that if she did not cooperate, she would face a fate worse than Maduro, who is in jail in New York.   

 

I suspect the other nations in South America took notice, maybe that is the point. I also suspect that while all seems quiet in Venezuela and the southern region, history has proven that such abuses have consequences that may be beyond estimation. While Maduro was a controversial president, as was Chavez, they were both elected by the people of Venezuela, democracy in action. Of course, election irregularities were claimed, and maybe true, but the reality is both were very popular, with near half the population. We can assume many of those are not happy at the moment, and when the time comes to actually put feet on ground to start pumping oil we may very well see a new insurgency from within and maybe from without to show the displeasure of people of the south.

 

We will have to see, but it is doubtful that this taking will not have repercussions, The commandment, "Thou shall not steal" applies to nations and not only individuals and the punishment usually come in this lifetime rather than later.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The problems with US beef production.

 FOREIGN COMPETITION MAY MAKE THINGS WORSE

OPPORTUNITY FOR LOCAL PRODUCERS?

 

Everyone knows that beef prices have risen, particularly since the COVID disruptions. Most of the beef is produced in the western parts of the US. While there always have been local producers, most of the big markets are supplied from herds in the west, processed in the Midwest. Chicago has historically been the central distribution place for beef. Rail transportation mostly has been replaced by Trucks. In the past most retail stores had their own butchers and received shipment of hanging sides and would cut it up in house and package it. Today most beef comes already cut up in boxes. This creates a shorter shelf life and adds to the risks of retail markets.

 

The last several years the western producers have faced severe drought which has caused them to reduce their herds due to lack of food. Today the nations herd is at a decades long low level, particularly for western ranchers.

 

Last week Tyson closed a major processing plant in Illinois laying off 2700 workers also announced closing of plants in Utah and Washington state. This followed the closing of two  major plants in Pennsylvania. When and if production resumes there may be a shortage of processing capability in the future.

 

It should be noted that the meat processor union had a major new agreement in 2024 with wage, benefit and pension increases, now many tens of thousands of those jobs are gone. One wonders if there is not a trend developing of importing more beef.

 

The cost of raising, processioning and transporting beef has risen due to inflation, the cost of diesel fuel and feed.

 

Producers have been trying to increase their herds but it is very costly, Today calves, 4-6 weeks old can bring up to $1500 at auction. Feeders, 500 pounds can bring $2000. Old dairy cows which once sold for $400 can bring as much as $1000. Fat desirable Angus steers bring around $2.30 a pound live weight. A 1500 lb steer is then $3450 before processing. Processing can cost $600 to $800. Final retail weigh is around 40% of live weight. This would be $7.33 a pound before transportation and profit.

 

If the trend is going to be to import beef from oversees, it will be a disincentive for domestic production. The big processors can skip union and other domestic costs and buy beef already for retail sales. I would doubt that will significantly lower prices. 

 

It may be an opportunity for local producers, particularly if they can be allowed to process their own cattle. This would skip several transportation steps and other costs.  Today it is mandated that a inspector is on site with his own office and paid by the processor. It should be possible for a system of accreditation for domestic local producers, this would cut costs and possibly prices to consumers. 

 

 

 

 

Mystery CIA visit to Russia? What it wasn't about.

 WHY TAKE A HUGE CARGO PLANE ON A DIPLOMATIC MISSION?

WHAT WERE THEY HAULING IN OR OUT? 

 

Speculation abounds as to what CIA director Radcliff was doing in Moscow.  First off, they claimed it was an unannounced visit, does anyone believe you can fly a US military plane into Moscow without proper approval?

 

Then we are told Radcliff flew in to threaten or warn the Russians, another unlikely prospect, any such warnings do not need a massive cargo plane.  Then we are told it could be an offer for Russia to stop giving Iran intelligence data, the kind of data that allowed Iran to take out CIA assets in west Asia. Maybe, but what would the US offer, to stop giving such data to Ukraine? Lavrov, while claiming he did not speak to the US did make it clear that no agreements would be made with the US as they have not honored any such agreements for years.

 

One thing is certain, Russia agreed to the visit and also tipped off Reuters so they could get a video of the plane approaching Moscow. So why did they come, with a big plane? It is reported that they had their own transportation in the plane and proceeded in caravan to Moscow. While many claim a 8 hour meeting, others account for time in transit etc and limit the meeting to less than 90 minutes.

 

Again, did they haul something into Moscow or out.  Most likely out and then more speculation, some time ago there were reports of the Russians capturing high level US military and CIA personnel in Ukraine, some dead and some alive. If true, the Russian's may have been ready to let them go and we can bet the US wanted them back as quietly as possible. The Russian's may have stipulated and demanded only to be handed over to the CIA director in Moscow, with probably some other messages. A big plane with cars going in and out and no witnesses, as good as it gets.

 

The other development this week was the visit to Moscow by a representative of the Pope, first time in 4 years, some believe it was attempting to insure humanitarian handling of civilians and clergy as this conflict come to an end, offering any assistance that will be needed. 

 

The reality on the ground, Ukraine is now almost entirely out of interceptors and the US has none to give. Russia has shut off access to Odessa and southern black sea ports and grain is no longer being exported. Russia is likely to add Odessa to its new oblasts in the future. 

 

The last stronghold in Donetsk region is now coming under attack and when it falls it will allow Russia to have full control of that region.  The battles have intensified and Ukraine is being advised by the US to conscript the women, a desperate action.

 

While the fighting may go on for some time, this war is over and Ukraine will end up a landlocked poverty stricken state dependent on western aid for its long term future.  The discussion now will soon be about the post war future of Ukraine.

 

 

 

 

Russia about to do final tests on nuclear powered weapons.

 SKYFALL AND POSEIDON, NEXT GENERATION NUCLEAR WEAPONS

LITTLE ABILITY TO DEFEND AGAINST 

 

It is expected that Russia is about to do final testing on their nuclear powered nuclear weapons. Both are ultra long range  airborne and submersible weapons. These weapons research began after the US ended its participation in the nuclear arms treaty.

 

Skyfall, the NATO designation or  Burevestnik is a nuclear powered nuclear armed cruise missile that flies at 300 ft making it difficult to track on radar. It has an unlimited range and can fly for possibly days, making it possible to travel over the south pole or any route to reach its target. It's first test in 2019 ended with disaster killing several of its scientists. An October 2025 test was successful flying for 15 hours and traveling 14,000 KM. It has also been labeled the "Flying Chernobyl" due to its problem of leaving traces of radioactive debris in its wake. Maybe they have found a way to minimize this, but one wonders if some pollution is relevant when discussing nuclear weapons.

 

The Poseidon is a nuclear powered and nuclear armed torpedo fired from a nuclear submarine. It is 75 ft long and again capable or unlimited range and much faster than surface vessel. It is reported to be able to run at depths of 3000 ft and speeds of 185 km per hr.  It would most likely not be used on ships, but could travel up estuaries or ports.

 

The miniaturization of nuclear power to make these weapons possible is possibly the most interesting breakthrough and could have many uses in the future. 

 

Both these weapons are expected to be finally tested in possibly days and then placed in service, no one know how many can be made and how long to manufacture, but is seems very limited in the near future.

 

 

 

 

Canada resists colonization.

 THE EMPIRE HAS NO LIMITS

NOT ABOUT TRADE, ALL ABOUT SOVEREIGNTY

 

The imposition of 50% tariffs on Canada after it refused the latest trade deal with the Trump administration is just one more signal about US intentions with the world. Are these tariffs now just another form of sanctions for not submitting to US power? Will we soon see a blockade and other methods of intimidation?

 

This so called trade deal is now the third trade deal with Canada, first was NAFTA in 1994, this was replaced by USMCA in 2020. While one could understand that NAFTA, after being in force for 26 years, may have needed some updating this latest Trump negotiated USMCA is hardly been in effect long enough to be fully implemented. It now appears that his latest deal is more about Canada submitting to US power over its affairs than trade. This deal was an attempt to move Canad toward being under US control, sort of a colony or as some believe, a new state in the US. 

 

While the details have not yet fully become  public, it seems that language was inserted after the initial agreement was finalized that would give the US the power to control what other trade deals Canada could engage in with other countries and also power to veto internal infrastructure projects. We can assume this is to force Canada to only buy or have big projects from US companies and to insure that Canada does not do business with anyone not approved of by Washington. It is in effect an infringement on Canada's right to sovereignty. 

 

One can expect much of this has to do with Canada engaging in business with China directly. If Canada buys products from the US, even if they originate in China, it will be acceptable. It just another attempt at some sort of colonial control  similar to some of the rules now imposed on Venezuela. 

 

We may expect that China may very well now make Canada a trade deal offer far fairer to Canada than any deal with the US. I am sure they would be willing to buy all the timber, oil and other resources and get a bargain on Chinese electric cars and other goods. They would not care what other counties Canada would trade. They may also be offered access to the new Arctic trade route. 

 

Canada has a lot more leverage than Washington radmits, but actually using it would likely result in threats of military action. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Iran war goes global.

 GLOBAL SANCTIONS WILL HAVE LASTING CONSEQUENCES

FORCING WORLD TO TAKE SIDES 

 

As we witness nation after nation refuse to get involved in the Iran war, we now see a desperate attempt to force all nations to take sides in the Iran war.  The US policy of " You are either with us or you are our enemy" has now been implemented on a global scale. While many will attempt to shake their head yes, while not participating, we will see whether the US has the ability or the will to enforce this global economic assault on Iran and its allies. At one time it could be assumed that most would submit, but with the escalating number and intensity of sanctions as a economic weapon it may be that many will now understand that they may very well  be next.

 

Economic sanctions can only be successful if it can be backed up with military actions. The last few years has demonstrated that that ability is diminishing and may soon actually become non existent as the economic consequences of fiscal irresponsibility, massive debt and a diminished manufacturing base can no longer back up a policy of threats and intimidation for extended periods of time. This has been demonstrated both in Ukraine and now Iran. 

 

While neither conflict has been consummated it is obvious that even a win will be a hollow victory as the economic realities of ruling the world is unsustainable and inevitably leads to the end of empires as has been demonstrated time after time in history. 

 

The power of the United States, based on a sound currency, a massive manufacturing base continuously creating wealth and sound financial policies no longer exists. It also appears that no effort is being made to reform this dying system to its former glory but hopes to extend it by military force that it will not be able to back up.

 

While we have been, in effect, in a world conflict between the declining world power and the rising world power it is inevitable we are on the precipice of a massive period of economic destruction. The massive debts and deficits can no longer be sustained and must be eliminated and hopefully it can be followed by a period of prosperity to follow.   

 

 

 

 

Eurasian realignment accelerates.

IS US POLICY FORCING REALIGNMENT?

CHINA SAYS NO TO SANCTIONS 

 

In the last week it appears that huge changes in the realignment of nations in west Asia is underway, In fact possibly extending far beyond west Asia. Whether intentional or not, it appears these changes are actually being accelerated by US policy in the region. 

 

Today, Pakistan's Asim Munir and a large delegation is traveling to Tehran. Many report that this is an attempt to restart negotiations with Iran but many conclude that it will include far more topics that may not be what the US assumes. 

 

One is an expected increase in trade between Pakistan and Iran, contrary to the big news expected of extensive sanctions by the US,  sanctions that will include threats to any nation who does trade with Iran.  Is Pakistan saying no to sanctions on Iran?

 

China has announced that they will not partake in any sanctions on anyone and has gone as far as to penalize any companies in China that engage in sanctions. That is very clear stand on sanctions on Iran. Will the US now impose penalties on China?

 

There is also speculation and some indication that the Mecca accord signed last week between Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan may be offered to Iran. Last weeks attack by Israel on an air base in Syria next to Turkey's border and the indication by Israel that Syria is now under their control is likely the impetus for this new expansion. There seems that there is now more countries interested in some sort of mid east NATO like effort.  

 

It seems many of the gulf countries are in quiet talks with Tehran in an effort to normalize relations in the region.

 

Trump's attempt to offer $1 billion to the head of the IRGC and the threat to demand $10 billion from South Korea has not played well anywhere. In fact China's foreign minister was in Seoul in only days after the dust up over South Korea refusing to get involved in the Iran war. It may have been the straw that has moved South Korea to reevaluate  where their future is best aligned.

 

It appears massive changes are underway, and that they are accelerating, one wonders if they can be reversed by threats of economic and military action or will this end with a complete reordering of the political landscape of the region. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

$40 Trillion debt, Trump Bank.

 TREASURY INTERVENTION, TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE 

FINANCIAL SHENANIGANS, NOT REMEDY 

 

The U.S. national debt set the new record of $40 trillion and is rising by the day. The deficit for this year is expected to top over $2 Trillion and with massive spending plans for defense and domestic programs, no matter which party is in power, can be expected to explode every year from now on, or until the whole fiasco collapses.

 

The yield on the 30 year bond is still at  5.25% and the 10 year at 4.7 % even after the treasury bought back bonds in an effort to lower the yield, buying its own debt with more borrowed money is not a solution and in today's informed world is just another sign of the unsustainability of U.S. fiscal policy. Gimmicks like "quantitative easing" may be now understood as feeble attempts to kick the can down the road. One wonders how long the road is until it ends in a cliff. The interest on the debt is now projected to be over $1.4 Trillion this year.

 

Looking at the administration and the congress there is no sign that any change of direction is coming, it is clear they will ride this dying pony until it dies. What come then is anyone's guess, but you can bet it will cost every citizen more than they can imagine.

 

Then there is the recent report that the new "Trump bank" is near approval.  It will not be a traditional bank, but a vehicle to administer the new "Stable coin".  Stable coin was sold as an effort to increase the ability of Federal government to fiance the debt by exchanging every US. dollar for 1 stable coin which can be used for digital commerce. Each dollar will be invested in U.S. debt and the vehicle "Trump Bank, will be paid the interest on the debt as a fee for the transaction. It is just a new method of profiting from the increasing debt, just like the other big banks have been doing for years. While none of these banks invest their own money in this debt, they capture a percent of every transaction, a deal that can only be had with a cooperative effort of the government.

 

Contrary to the narrative, this is why the rest of world is attempting to free itself from the dollar and move to some new system that is sustainable. Everyone tied to this unsustainable spiral will be damaged  when it all implodes.

 

 

 

 

Ukraine war, Drone war laboratory.

 RUSSIA AND UKRAINE, THE BEST DRONE WARRIORS

DAILY EVOLUTION AND ADAPTATION  

 

Ukraine's soldiers were the first to, by necessity, improvise the use of drones. At first they were cheap Chinese drones with improvised grenades and artillery shells strapped on them. The Russians had drones but their use was limited at first, they primarily relied on artillery warfare and drones for reconnaissance. Today both sides launch hundreds or even thousand of drones a day.

 

Russia may have started out slow, but has improved dramatically, not only with drones but in electronic counter measures.  One side gets a temporary advantage and then the other side quickly adjusts or adapts, this has been going back and forth continuously. The battlefield today is in reality  predominately a drone war, it has kept Ukraine in this fight for much longer than any other tactic.

 

In recent weeks Ukraine has been successful in damaging Russia's oil facilities, gas stations and other oil infrastructure, along with damage to ships in the Azov sea. Russia responded by in effect making Odessa and other Black sea ports inoperable. They have also destroyed almost all the refueling stations east of the Dneiper river.  While Ukraine has created lots of damage in recent days Russia has adapted and very few of Ukrainians drones have survived to their targets, Ukraine will now need to also adapt.

 

Russia acquired drones from Iran and then improved them dramatically and now has an ability to produce large numbers of drones. Drones are now becoming, at least for now, a major piece of offensive munitions.

 

Recently the U.S. played drone war games with a Ukrainian team and lost dramatically every time.  Not surprising, as Ukraine and Russia are now the best and most experienced at Drone warfare.

 

The U.S. has lost over 1/4 of their very expensive reaper drones in the Iran conflict, it will require much rethinking into its vulnerabilities.

 

Drones have made many expensive and over engineered equipment obsolete and vulnerable to low cost drones. The military world is watching and it will require a huge shift in priorities.  

 

 

 

No Coalition, No Mercenaries, No credibility.

  THREATS AND BLUSTER NO LONGER WORK

TIME TO SUCK IT UP AND DO THE RIGHT THING

 

The effort to recruit either a coalition of the willing or mercenaries seems to have come up empty. The Kurds said no long ago, and those who considered it were already attacked by Iran. The Syrian ex ISIS was informed by Iran to not think about it and it seems they are not interested. Possible unhappy factions in Baluchistan are out, either by good analysis or with the help of Iran. South Korea suffered the wrath of Trump by saying no to any involvement in this fiasco. The Saudi's have suffered by agreeing to attack Iraq and Yemen and may be thinking better of any more.  

 

That leaves the U.S. and Israel, same as in the beginning, except after a year of perpetual readiness, the spear is starting to melt in the gulf sun. Marines on ships for six months are not as ready as they once were and time is running out to use them at all. The economic realities cannot be postponed indefinitely and once the snow ball starts rolling it may be difficult to stop.

 

Then there is still the talk of a nuclear solution. Is the talk in itself just more bluster?  It appears Iran is not going to be intimidated into surrender and the waiting game will be as damaging to the globe as to Iran, as will further conventional warfare.

 

Then there is Israel, likely threatening the use of nuclear if Trump doesn't.  Israel probably is willing, but should understand that some third party may very well decide to end all of this in one fell swoop. The use of nuclear by the U.S. may be another matter and the preferred route. Trump's dilemma is growing, desperation is apparent, there is no easy way out and the clock is ticking.

 

 

 

Logistical problems of the Iran war.

 THE PROBLEMS WITH A 10,000 MILE AWAY WAR

SUPPLY IS MONUMENTAL UNDERTAKING 

 

The recent revelations about the difficulties on the Abraham Lincoln have brought the difficulties of the supplying the necessary materials to the region to the surface. Iran is over 7000 miles from California in a straight line and all those supplies have to come from the U.S. mainland at some point. Of course we have bases in Hawaii, Philippines and Japan, but it is still a massive undertaking. Most supplies have to be transported by ship. 

 

The U.S. main base in the gulf region was in Bahrain the headquarters of 5th fleet. It was evacuated within days of the onset of conflict and no longer is able to be used. This leaves Diego Garcia 2500 miles from Iran. I recall that the British confiscated the Island from the locals in the late 1960's and turned it over to the U.S. to be used as a base. The Navy scuttlebutt at the time was that it was going to be pivotal as the focus was shifting from southeast Asia to the middle east. Interesting that this was way before  the Islamic revolution Saddam Hussein, or other issue in the middle east.

 

Diego Garcia is 5200 miles from Japan, 3600 miles from the Philippines, 8900 miles from Hawaii. Ships like supply vessels usually travel at around 20 miles an hour. The distances are not in a straight line and have many tuns and detours.

 

While Navy warships can be resupplied at sea it is confined to food, fuel and items that can be moved ship to ship. Munitions, particularly missiles, have to be resupplied  in port.  With the closest base now 2500 miles away it is massive undertaking and very costly. 

 

Aircraft logistics are also a massive undertaking.  Iran is near 1000 miles from Israel and Jordan, this is were most of the land aircraft and tankers have been relocated, as gulf bases have been severally damaged. All offensive aircraft must be refueled once incoming and once outgoing in the air, as the fuel range is near 600 miles. Aircraft carriers are positioned as far as 600 miles away and also need in air refueling. Most of the defensive  missiles have been moved around Israel and Jordon to protect these tankers and aircraft.

 

 The long range radar  stations have all been destroyed and are being replaced by airborn AWAC aircraft. The warning times for incoming missiles is now only minutes for bases in Israel and Jordon. 

 

It now becomes more clear to why Russia has not moved deep into Ukraine as it has its logistical support within only miles of its supplies. For Ukraine it is 800 miles from Poland to the front

 

Logistics is always a great part of any conflict. in a attrition war it can be the deciding factor. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The U.S. has lost internal control of its future.

 CHANGES WILL NOT COME FROM THE ELECTORAL PROCESS

OUTSIDE FORCES WILL FORCE REAL CHANGES

 

We now hear of the great changes coming from a midterm election and then of course 2028. The direction of the country is no longer governed by elections and thoughtful decisions, it is going to be governed by the consequences of decades of irresponsibility and past decisions. Decisions not made by citizens or in the best interest of the country, but decisions made by numerous groups of special interests who have sown the seeds of the country's demise. The country will survive, but it may be decades for it to recover to a sound, stable and prosperous future.

 

I am sure many will dismiss such speculation as just doom and gloom appraisals of the situation, but it is clear the foreign policy of this country has been dictated by others, rather than the people or even its elected officials. It seems presidents are allowed to whipsaw the internal domestic politics, but foreign policy and the direction of the country is uniform and the same no matter election outcomes. The midterms and the 2028 election will be very anticlimactic and will have no effect on the real direction of the country.

 

The Democrats, due to their embrace of mediocrity, literally do not have any candidates qualified to lead or bring any vision for the future. We will see a domestic agenda of a move to more socialism, more spending, more debt and still war in numerous places.

 

The Republicans will be unable to shake themselves of the control of donors and those who believe we can still force the world to submit to our diminishing power.  More spending, more debt and war in numerous places.

 

The country is on a rail to its demise financially and politically and with the present debate of deciding if nuclear weapons are now the last ditch  method to enforce submission, it may all  make irrelevant any dog and pony show election distraction.