Blog Archive

Thursday, June 18, 2026

Will Trump revise his policy in other fronts?

 HOW ABOUT NORMALIZING RELATIONS WITH CUBA?

OR WILL HE NOW DOUBLE DOWN IN THIS HEMISPHERE?


The repercussions of Trump's decision to end this Iran war are far from over, they most likely have just begun. We can expect that if this MOA is signed and begins to transpire, the opposition will organize in ways to make life difficult for Trump. The reality is that 30+ years of military and economic intervention have run up an enormous debt, deeply divided the nation at home and caused the U.S. standing in the world to be at a historical low. Never the less many factions want more of the same and Trump did promise to change direction of the country, it does appear that Trump has made the decision to change direction in the middle east. Will he also change direction in his approach to the other crisis's festering around the world?

The reality is the U.S. is not, at its roots, the power it once was, one of the reasons for the pause in this conflict was the enormous expenditure of precision weapons could not be sustained. This is can attributed to years of military action, a diminished manufacturing base and dependence on others for strategic supplies. It became apparent that Iran was not going to fall from air power alone and the world could not maintain an oil embargo without drastic consequences. All the naysayers keep up the narrative about finishing off Iran without any real plan to do it. Trump was on the hot seat, he looked at all the options, even nuclear weapons, and finally came to his only real option, especially if he felt he would like to do other things than engage in war for the rest of his term.

The lesson is similar in the Russia/Ukraine conflict, a neutral non aligned Ukraine could have been the most prosperous country in eastern Europe, the EU, particularly Germany, had a cushy energy arrangement with Russia that allowed them to prosper, but threw it all away due to the Neocon dream of dismembering Russia. So far, they cannot suck it up and change direction. 

All the while, China sets an example of non-intervention, growing their economy and infrastructure at home and making mutually prosperous deals with all those willing to partner with them. 

The U.S. cannot maintain its global power by military force, unless it wants to go nuclear on all its adversaries, a real self destructing idea, that some are entertaining. The West needs a new perspective on the global security and economic realities of the 21 St. century. Hopefully, the Iran war can be lesson and hopefully it will be successful.



Wednesday, June 17, 2026

It looks like Trump is ready to move on.

 THE MIDDLE EAST WILL NOT BE THE SAME

THERE WILL BE INCREASED FOCUS ON ISRAEL



There are now leaked reports on the upcoming Iran/U.S. deal. It also appears that we may be able to be more optimistic of a successful  new era in the region. If this deal is concluded by August 19, as is planned, it will in effect, normalize relations between the U.S. and Iran and also between the other Persian Gulf countries. At this point we can only be hopeful.

The reality is that the U.S. understood that the oil reserves all around the world were almost depleted. Iran understood that this may be the best opportunity for normalized relations since 1979. There are huge incentives for both sides to make this happen. If this is signed and 1/2 Iran's frozen assets are released at that time it will indicate that the U.S. is serious. All the other nations in the gulf need this to happen, there are plenty of incentives for all.

Of course, the sticking point is still Israel. We should expect that there there will be pressure for Hezbollah to commit to a ceasefire and pressure for Israel to withdraw from Lebanon. While this will be unpopular with the leadership in Israel, if the deal is moving forward with Iran in a respectful manner by both sides, they will be under enormous world pressure to end the fighting in Lebanon. All a first step for a better outcome for everyone in the region, including Israel. It can be expected that any escalation or other attempts to sabotage this deal by Israel will be closely monitored, and if Iran can gain confidence, they may be able to be convinced to not respond militarily.

Of course, if this deal if consummated, it is not the end, but only the beginning for a comprehensive agreement for whole region. 






Tuesday, June 16, 2026

Trump's right decision, Israel pledges war to go on.

 IF REAL, TRUMP HAS BIT THE BULLET

BEST DECSION FOR THE U.S. AND WORLD



While at present Trump is declaring victory, in the long run it could be the most pivotal decision of  his presidency.  Staying the course in Iran was a loser for the global economy and while few want to acknowledge it, when it all fell apart, Iran would be least of their troubles.  If Trump makes this happen, he will find that there is a time for humility and a new lesson in his life. He has shown he has the ability to change course.

The present deal may be a lesser deal than the one he was persuaded to scrap by Netanyahu several years ago. If he can gain the trust of Iran, he may be able to actually make a long term difference in the region. Actually, a better deal was near completed in Geneva before the February attack. 

The former deal by Obama and now this move to diplomacy has actually brought Iran into  a closer alignment with the world community. Iran has shown patience, and mostly engaged in retaliation, the escalation was consistently on the part of the U.S. and Israel. Iran has shown restraint and the ability engage in effective diplomacy. The reality that Iran had the capability to destroy the oil infrastructure of the region and throw the world into a economic crisis, but did not, has shown the world that Iran is not necessarily a ideological extremist. 

I suspect that all the Muslim nations in the region are ready to make some sort of peace with Iran, I suspect that Iran is also ready for a new effort for peace in the region. The citizens of Israel should take a hard look at where their future was headed and consider some other options in their policies. While their leaders claim they are winning, they have lost a lot in the last 3years. It is not too late.

The present narrative out of Israel is that will continue in their war with Iran, that they will engage in covert actions and internal subversion to overthrow the government of Iran. I hope they decide that approach is not in their best interest. 

This can be an opportunity, but a rational and humanitarian solution for the Palestinian question is fundamental to solving the long term future of the region.



Monday, June 15, 2026

Day 107, Deal completed? Signing now June 19?

 NETANYAHOU SAYS ISRAEL NOT PART OF DEAL

ISRAEL ATTACKS LEBANON, STRAIT STILL NOT OPEN



Both sides seem to indicate that they have agreed to the framework for an end to hostilities in the region. Most do not believe it will actually be the end of this conflict, just a pause until after the November elections and a period of normalized oil supplies.

Netanyahu refuses to exit Lebanon or cease hostilities with Lebanon. Yesterday Trump convinced Iran not to retaliate against Israel for its renewed attacks on Lebanon. Most believe the Trump/Netanyahu rift is just theater. Iran did not retaliate for now, but there is no question that if the attacks continue they will.  Trump does have the leverage to demand compliance from Netanyahu, either by cutting off all offensive weapons to Israel or just pledge to stand back and not participate in Israel's defense if they do not comply. It would be a first for Trump and would go a long way in increasing his credibility.

Below is a summary of the major parts of this agreement, no one has yet seen the most up to date version.

1. Non-aggression treaty for the future.
2. Iran will retain control of Strait.
3. Iran can enrich for commercial purposes.
4. Lifting of Primary sanctions.
5. Lifting of secondary sanctions.
6. Termination of UN security council resolutions condemning Iran.
7. Termination of IAEA resolutions against Iran.
8. Payment of compensation to Iran.
9. Withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region.
10. Cessation of war on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

This is the rough idea of what is being considered, and if a deal is actually signed on Friday, it will begin with opening the strait by both sides, a return of 1/2 the frozen assets of Iran and negotiations to be concluded in the following 60 days. This will concern the nuclear agreement which will be similar to what was part of the original deal from 2015.

Most question the sincerity of the U.S. in all this, feeling it is more about oil prices and political convenience until after the next election. It is a real opportunity for a comprehensive security agreement for the region, if that is what they really want.







Friday, June 12, 2026

Day 104, Trump, War over? doubtful.

 MORE WAR, THEN PEACE, TESTING AMERICANS GULLIBILITY

HOW LONG CAN CREDIBILITY LAST?


Yesterday, the world was whipsawed by competing narratives coming out of the White House. More intense war, oil markets rise, then peace, oil markets fall, the same pattern that has been going on for now months. I suspect that any proclamations coming out of the White House are now considered just so much verbiage without any substance. It can be assumed that much of he world is feeling the same. This pattern is the quickest way for a President to become irrelevant.

This whole ceasefire was called for by Trump, tentatively agreeing to Iran's position, then when it came to real negotiations, it all evaporated. In reality, Iran has not changed it position and neither has the U.S.  Lets face it, Trump is hoping for Iran to capitulate and give him a clear victory. Iran, a nation that is in an existential fight for its survival, not just its government, but its nation, which has been under sanctions and assault for its entire modern existence is demonstrating that it has the social cohesion and military ability to demonstrate a lasting deterrence. This whole fiasco is weakening the U.S. and giving Iran credibility in the world community. I suspect that saying that is tantamount to treason, everyone is supposed to be on board exclaiming the virtues and power of the U.S. while in effect it is diminishing by the day.

Together  with the Ukraine/Russian war, another conflict that was expected to be over in weeks and is now in its 4th year, all in the hope of maintaining world control and control of the politics and resources of Russia and Iran, have in effect decimated the economies of Europe and soon the U.S. The debts are piling up, the internal social fabric disintegrating and the credibility of their governments evaporating. Exactly opposite of the goals that these wars were expected to enact.

It seems the leadership class is without the ability to change course, either from hubris or just unable to neutralize those with other agendas, either way, it is likely going to end with a diminished nation in all respects.



Thursday, June 11, 2026

Day 103, War back on, Strait closed.

 U.S. ATTACKS IRAN, IRAN STRIKES U.S. BASES

IRAN DECLARES STRAIT CLOSED FOR EVERYONE



Dueling narratives from both sides, the U.S. claims it's strikes are defensive and Iran retaliates, more of the same, but just escalating. Trump claims the U.S. has been sneaking ships through the strait. Imagine sneaking 1000 foot long ships through a 20 mile wide waterway. We can assume the ships going through were with Iranian permission. Iran now states, no ships will be going through until escalation stops.

We can assume that this is going to be the situation for some time and the disruption of the flow of oil out of the gulf will continue. More are speculating that the U.S. actually wants the oil traffic disrupted, hoping, while it may damage Iran, it will cause economic worries for China. While it may hobble consumers in the U.S. it will damage China more and the U.S. will be less impacted than others. It may also increase dependence on U.S. energy and increase U.S. leverage. A sad way of trying to insure the U.S. remains relevant.

All this also takes the focus off of Israel's attacks on Lebanon and it seems there were no more attack by Iran on Israel.

It is amazing that oil prices have been restrained so far, when actual shortages begin that may be much harder to control.

Indications that the stock markets are possibly finally entering a new reality phase, we will see if this will cause another reevaluation of this conflict.

Chaos, instability and uncertainty seem to be outlook for the foreseeable future. 







Wednesday, June 10, 2026

Day 103, War some more.

 BACK TO WAR IN PERSIAN GULF?

U.S. STIKES IRAN, IRAN HITS U.S. GULF BASES



Yesterday a U.S. helicopter collided with a Iranian drone over the strait of Hormuz. Iran claims it was unintentional, while the U.S. responded with stakes into Iran.  Iran then responded with strikes on U.S. bases in the gulf. It is not clear if this is going to continue or just another strike and respond incident.

Little talk of any negotiations in progress. 

Reports claim that the U.S. staged  airborne troops in Israel for a planned attempt to capture Iran's Kharg island, it now may be another cancelled covert mission.

Most likely this tit for tat will continue for some months, until the U.S. and Israel feel they are ready for another go at Iran or until some other crisis erupts to distract.
It is doubtful that any peaceful resolution is on the immediate horizon. 




Tuesday, June 9, 2026

Day 102, Economic or political exhaustion, not military victory.

 WHO WILL BE FORCED TO END THIS BY NECESSITY?

THE CLOCK IS NOW TICKING QUICKLY


It is clear, there is no serious negotiation that will be acceptable to the U.S., Iran and Israel. At present, everything is sort of in limbo, but it is becoming clear that a military victory is unlikely. It is more likely that exhaustion or financial necessity will be what brings this conflict to a close.

The U.S. is the most powerful player in this affair, at least militarily. It is clear that 40 days of bombing have not eliminated Iran's ability to do damage, that is why there was a call by Trump for ceasefire in the first place. So far, the damage to the world economy due to the interference in energy supplies has been managed by expending reserves, and there is a limit to how long that can be sustained. The reality is that the flow of energy out of the Persian gulf must happen and soon.   

The calls from the hard core Neocons and Israel to finish off Iran assumes that Iran is a sitting duck and an easy kill, serious analysts understand that this is not true. Iran has made it clear that a further resumption of attacks will result in Iran taking out the Persian gulf energy production facilities for possibly years, Iran does have that capability. This will result in a global financial crisis that no one will escape. At present, Iran has not pre-emptively attacked anyone,  but they are retaliating to any attacks by the U.S. and Israel, both on Iran and Lebanon.

It seems Trump has hoped that an embargo would bring Iran to accept his demands, this is unlikely, as Iran as alternative corridors through the Caspian sea and Pakistan. It is near impossible to enforce a total blockade on Iran. The clock is ticking for Trump both economically and politically. 

Iran is geographically a fortress that will not be defeated without massive ground forces and there are not enough forces available and logistics of such an enterprise are not being entertained by anyone. Iran has been under sanctions and assault for 47 years, that is why they constructed such a massive underground defense system. The hope of an internal revolt has been much exaggerated. While there is internal disagreements, the assassinations and massive bombing has united the country as it would any nation. I suspect, that while suffering, they can outlast the U.S. and Israel. The delusion in the west that Iranians view Israel and the U.S. as benevolent saviors is just stupid.

Israel is now in the weakest position, the idea postulated by the present leadership that Israel is an emerging super power is dangerously delusional. It is completely dependent on the U.S. for its ultimate security. The U.S. is experiencing  its own problems of over extension after years of war, both it the middle east and Ukraine. Another reason for the call for a ceasefire was the shortage of precision munitions.
Israel's army is being exhausted after 3 years of continuous fighting and the idea of expansion and occupation is near impossible for a small population. There is a limit to how long Israel can continue militarily, economically and more importantly politically. The opposition at home is not for peace but for more war, how is that situation going to be reconciled?

The real solution is a comprehensive negotiation to settle all disputes, at present no can even talk directly to each other, a real solution would take years to accomplish and at present there is no will for anything like that. It will only end with the brutal reality of exhaustion and an inability to continue.




Monday, June 8, 2026

U.S. and Israel continue conflict.

 THERE IS NO PEACE PLAN

TRUMP AND BIBI ARE ON THE SAME PAGE


We continue to hear that Trump is admonishing Netanyahu for attacking Lebanon and that Trump desires an end to this conflict, it is all for domestic consumption and is all part of the plan. Neither want peace until there there is no opposition to their long range plans. Netanyahu has the vison of a region subservient to Israeli control and Trump wants to control the resources in the Persian gulf.

The goal is to cut off oil to China and Asia in an attempt to end the global move to an alternative economic system. Iran is geographically pivotal to this alternative system and the hope is make Asia more dependent on U.S. energy as a means of control. The same applies to the Russian/Ukraine conflict, hampering of Russia's ability to supply oil to this alternative economic group is part of the goal. The same goes for the supposed divide between the U.S. and NATO counties, just more psyops.

This plan has been underway for some time, the only question is, does the U.S. have the manufacturing base to keep up this conflict for the years it may take to be accomplished? Can the U.S. economy be sustained with massive debts and the effects of this enterprise on the global economy? Can the West prevail internally with increasing inflation and a deepening political divide? It seems it is an all or nothing gamble. 

The alternative would be to pursue goals of a sound currency and a strong economic and manufacturing base at home. A sound footing that could compete and also seek cooperative relations with the goal of mutual prosperity. The U.S. is not or has not been in a position of threat from none of these supposed adversaries. The real risk is an internal breakdown of the financial system that is unsustainable with current policies. 

Maintaining control of the global economic and political system will not insure the wellbeing of the nations citizens or those of Europe, it seems it is all about maintaining the privileged system of the Epstein class. The risk is that by pursuing this agenda they will destroy the future for us all.





Friday, June 5, 2026

Consensus growing, Iran is now Nuclear.

 PERFECT TIME FOR COMPREHENSIVE MIDEAST AGREEMENT

THE RATIONAL SHOULD ALL BE READY TO END WAR



There are increasing reports that Iran has joined the nuclear club and that they may soon make that reality clear. These reports are coming from several different sources and claim that soon after the death of the Ayatollah Kaimani, the stance was changed by his successor and that they have now nuclear weapons that are capable of being delivered by Missles.

While no tests have been conducted, it is also been speculated that they will soon demonstrate and announce that they are now a nuclear power. While it is very possible that this is a reality, it is also possible that they are engaging in a coordinated false narrative for political purposes. I suspect that this will be revealed in the coming days.

While Trump keeps threatening more military action, many in Washington are pushing for this, it seems that he is unwilling to play Russian Roulette with the world economy. Most agree that a new round of military action will result in the elimination of  Persian gulf oil from the world market for an extended time. It is clear that Iran has that capability.

While there is talk of negotiations and talks have all been through intermediaries and no direct talks between the U.S. and Iran have happened since Islamabad, many months ago. One must believe that if meaningful risk free military action was possible it would have happened by now. The idea that a U.S. embargo will bring Iran down is becoming less of an option, with different routes available in the north.

I suspect that the Gulf countries are ready for peace, I believe Iran is also ready, but not by submitting to unrealistic demands. All the other countries in the region are ready. The world economy is ready. The U.S. should be ready and it may time for Trump to exhibit some real courage and declare he is now ready for real negotiations for comprehensive deal that will settle the Palestine future in a serious and humanitarian way. It would indeed be the deal of the century. 30 years of war should be enough for the rational to step up and make it happen.




Thursday, June 4, 2026

THE COMING COLLAPSE OF DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISM

THE COMING COLLAPSE OF DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISM

THE QUESTION IS NOT IF, BUT WHEN? 

 


Watching the news we see economic crises worldwide. While we are not currently in a major downturn, we have been sort of treading water for the last 8 years. The  underlying problems with most economies, particularly western Europe and the United States, have not improved. In fact, the amount of debt and the future ability to deal with a downturn is a lot more unstable than before. The amount of debt held by Western countries, businesses and individuals, has actually increased since 2007. This election year we hear from some who believe if we just raise taxes on the wealthy all will be well. Others contend that all will be well if we can just instill confidence that a solution is near. Sorry, All will not be well. Taxes would have to be doubled in most cases, which will cause an economic collapse, or government spending would have to be cut in half, which will also cause a collapse.

Of course the problem is that there has been an accumulation of extraordinary debt by all governments, corporations, and individuals. There is not a precedent for this situation in human history. While the housing bubble was the symptom that was burst, when gas rose to $4.00 a gallon, in the US the massive debts held by everyone was the real problem. Debts of individuals can be traced to central banks that have not been willing to clear excess debts since the early 1980’s. Instead, they have encouraged and enabled individuals to borrow beyond their means to repay. We now see a classic debt collapse scenario where people are having a hard time servicing the debt they have and banks are raising standards to stop losses...with the economy stagnating until the debts are reduced to normal levels. This may take decades rather than years.  

A far bigger problem is the debt of governments, particularly in Western Europe and the US. These debts are a direct result of massive spending and the whole idea of democratic socialism where votes were bought by promising unsustainable benefits...to individuals, spending on projects, surveys, studies, ad nauseum... to the well connected. When fulfilling these promises could not be sustained by raising taxes they just borrowed the money to be consumed. The spending on projects, etc. is more easily addressed by just saying "NO"...BUT the spending on benefits is much more difficult to address. The real culprit in all this is that socialism has been a dismal failure whenever it has been tried. I should qualify that by distinguishing between voluntary and involuntary socialism.

Voluntary socialism is self limiting. An example is fire insurance. If the incidence of loss becomes excessive, premiums go up and some people may refuse to buy insurance. If losses become excessive insurance companies may refuse to enter that market. There are natural limits for both parties.

The first instance of collectivist failure was recorded in the New Testament. The early Christians, thinking that the end was near, sold there possessions, dined together and shared with each other. It was not long until Paul, hearing complaints from the responsible members of the community, wrote to them saying, “He who does not work shall not eat.” Human nature and the voluntary basis of this experiment was a natural remedy.

Another example was the Puritans who landed in Plymouth in 1620. They formed the, "Mayflower Compact," an agreement to share all property and work in common. After 3 years of this experiment, they were barely able to survive. The Puritan's endeavor had been financed by investors in Europe who hoped they would reap a profit by the Puritans repaying their debts with furs and other goods. After 3 years of no return, investors refused to send any more support and the idea was scrapped. The Puritans then distributed land to each family and they were on their own - the result was the beginning of prosperity for all.  It was chronicled by William Bradford that while the number of people who were either too weak or incapable of work grew, and the young and motivated were increasingly unhappy with the communal arrangement, many who formally were unable to add much to the community instantly became more productive when they were able to keep the fruits of their labor.

Remember the 1960’s  communes, where a few self motivated people bought a ranch and lived off the land? It was not long until they were supporting a larger and larger number of new disciples, who agreed it was wonderful, except for the motivation part. Again it ended in a natural turn of events and human nature.

Now to involuntary socialism. Of course the greatest example has to be the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. This experiment was immediate total government control that in the end was a dramatic failure. It may take Russia several generations to recover from the debacle. While touted by Socialists as the wonderful system of the future, (including Eleanor Roosevelt who visited the country many times in the 1930s when the worst atrocities were being committed), Solzhenitsyn and others saw and reported the true nature of the experiment. It's interesting to note that from the revolution in the USSR in 1917 to its collapse in 1989 was 72 years. If we take 1935 as the "embrace of socialism" in western Europe and the US, we end up at 2007. Does it take roughly this long for the failures of socialism to become unsustainable? While we have not had total control by the governments of western Europe or the US, we have been progressing in that direction for decades...hence the term progressivism. It has been a slow incremental movement that has taken control of most industries through regulation and has encouraged dependency by promising a safety net to those displaced by their policies. The part of the private sector that has not been effectively controlled by the government is the food and energy sector. They are in the process of taking over the energy sector and when they can control food they will have complete control of the economy and the people. Remember the winners of socialist economies are the ruling class who often live well off on what they skim off of the redistribution schemes. Even in the Soviet Union they lived well in their dachaus and had access to  travel and benefits that could only be dreamed of by the rest of the population.

While it all appears wonderful in theory, Unchangeable Human Nature has not been taken into account. Humans will help each other to some extent, but most will not jeopardize their or their families well-being for others. On a voluntary basis, many are willing to help those in need, in danger, etc. but as soon as it becomes involuntary, there will be resistance. This is just the nature of human survival instincts. While it may not measure up to the expectations of the ideologues of socialism, it is probably superior to all other organisms on earth. The Soviet experiment ended when there were no longer any incentives left. The Russians who have weathered one form of dictatorship for their whole existence were noted to remark to each other, "We pretend to work, and they pretend to pay us." In the end the only prospering part of the economy was the black market and flea markets.

So what has happened in every case of involuntary socialism?  Those who believe they are taxed too much will resist by finding ways to pay less; those who believe they are restricted in some way will find ways around the restrictions. Too much tax will usually create less revenue, etc. At first this is accepted or minimally enforced, but as the deficits grow, enforcement must increase and we see a cycle of increased enforcement, then less activity, then less revenue and if left to follow a linear path to forced labor and slavery.

In the U.S. there was once a work ethic and pride of self reliance - many would not accept charity, but after decades of increasing regulation and taxation it seems all restraint has fallen off and everyone will take and pursue more benefits, even if liquidating assets and claiming poverty is necessary. The dam has broken. The tipping point has been reached. It will not likely be restored by government action, or by acts of Congress, the same applies to Western Europe.

So what is the solution? At this point there is no easy solution. All solutions will require much pain and suffering. It may be limited by economic suffering and the necessary austerity to liquidate the debt and begin a new start with liberty and self reliance the foundation...OR...it may be that more enforcement will be needed until we return to feudal type society where basic necessities will be provided to the productive and compliant and those that do not conform will be eliminated from society by the powers that be. This is the question that will be answered when the coming collapse reaches its fulfillment.

originally published 2/11/2016

update 9/1/22   We are about to see the fulfillment of this narrative, possibly within months in Western Europe and then on to the U.S.

update 3/10/2023  We see the new budget is increased by 1 Trillion dollars. Debt of over 31 Trillion. Inflation destroying buying power. It is all unsustainable. 

update 11/16/2023, all the problems are now more severe, $34 trillion debt, $2 trillion deficit. Bond market in trouble. Any attempts to fiscal responsibility labeled extreme. 

update 5/24/2024, U.S. now incurring debt at the rate of $1 trillion every 100 days. Gold $2450 oz. While all seems well, it is all unsustainable, Economic crisis on the horizon.

Update 2/19/2025. U.S. debt nears $37 trillion. Gold $2940. Trump and DOGE attempt to reform spending and fraud in budget. Many would rather go down with the ship than change this unsustainable course.

Update 7/21/2025. U.S. debt now over $37 Trillion. deficit near $2 Trillion. Gold $3300 per oz. All unsustainable.

Update 2/25/2026. U.S. debt now near $39 Trillion, deficit near $2 trillion, 25% of budget. Gold over $5100 per oz.  A major economic event could trigger the crisis of the century.

Update 6/3/2026, U.S. debt near 40 Trillion, 25% deficit, high energy prices and increased defense budget and continued war could be the tipping point. Europe eyes reducing social spending as economies suffer under effects of war and increased defense spending. Gold has replaced bonds as the safe reserve haven. Social unrest can be expected. Classic Mises described stock market BlowUp is underway.








Wednesday, June 3, 2026

Ukraine and Iran war heat up.

 MASSIVE AIR ATTACKS ON KIEV 

U.S. BASES IN KUWAIT AND BAHRAIN TARGETED



War is intensifying on both the major conflicts, Russia has increased the intensity of attacks on Kiev and Ukraine is continuing attacks inside Russia, while Russia is accelerating aggression in most areas on the ground. Will this soon create the conditions for an end to this conflict?

The U.S. has attacked areas in the strait of Hormuz and Iran has attacked U.S. bases, how long will this continue until all out war breaks out again?

The fighting in Lebanon is intense with serious damage being inflicted on both sides, one must wonder how long this this can go on at this intensity?

While lots of civilian casualties are reported in Lebanon, the internal pressure in Israel both economically and psychologically has to be taking a toll. Does Israel have any economy after 3 years of escalating war?  The massive amount of ordinance that is being expended can not be sustained indefinitely.

Russia and Ukraine's losses are massive but the whole of the EU is suffering with high energy prices and now even shortages. The German economy is being devastated and the risk of social unrest is growing. 

We still hear little from either NATO nor the U.S. establishment questioning their policies, it seems it is still just escalate. It is becoming clear it is amore about hubris than ever seeing a positive result from these conflicts. Maybe, they will continue until economic collapse makes it no longer possible to continue.

It has to be be indicated that China's policy of non intervention is paying off in ways that are in their best interest, both economically and politically. While most of the major powers in the world are destroying themselves, China is just building and surpassing everyone. There is more lasting prosperity in peace than war.











Tuesday, June 2, 2026

Day 95, Peace talks suspended, Ceasefire over?

 IRAN THREATENS TO ATTACK ISRAEL

THERE REALLY NEVER WAS A CEASEFIRE



Yesterday, Iran announced that the peace talks have been suspended and that it is preparing to strike Israel military in northern Israel. The reasons for this are Israel's continued expansion into Lebanon and the daily attacks by the U.S. on Iranian assets in the Hormuz area. 

Israel never stopped the assault into Lebanon and the United States continued to destroy Iran's radar and defense positions around the Hormuz straits. The U.S. claimed that those sites threatened U.S. military assets. Iran had responded by striking U.S. bases in Kuwait.

It appeared that U.S. hoped to systematically degrade Iran's military in the Hormuz area, possibly in preparation for some kind of assault. 

Israel is in the process of leveling much of southern Lebanon with a high level of civilian casualties and paying a high price in the loss of equipment and soldiers. Israel never really participated in the ceasefire, which seems to be standard set in Gaza and other attempted ceasefires.

As of today we are not yet back to full out war, but again, it could start at any moment, along with the dashed hopes of any resolution that would normalize oil prices and preserve the global economy.



Monday, June 1, 2026

A brief history of money.

A BRIEF HISTORY OF MONEY




Money, we are all familiar with it, most want more, some to the point of  excess. It has been described as the, "Root of all Evil".  Realistically, we do need a certain amount, but I would like to talk about a simple brief history of Money.

Originally, most financial transactions were a form of barter,"I'll trade you a goat for that woven shirt that one of your wives made". Or,"I am tired of goats, how about we trade for some of your sheep". This all worked out well and good, but eventually someone got the bright idea of converting wealth to some form of exchange.

There is some record of salt being a form of exchange, or round stones with holes,  but most items were quick to lose their value when someone either found a pit with enough salt to flood the market or a method to mass produce stones with holes.

Eventually they settled on gold and silver as a form of money. Early records show that, as early as 2150 BC, the Shekel and Talent were used in the middle east, These were measures of weight,  A shekel was .36 of a troy weight oz. A Talent was equal to 60 manehs and 3000 shekels. This standard of weight was used by Egypt, Babylon, Phoenicia, Greece, Persia etc.  The ratio was 15 shekel's of silver = 1 shekel of gold.  Everyone had a balance scale to do business.

Finally, as governments grew and became more sophisticated, the minting of money began. This consisted of coins which were of a standardized weight, usually embossed with the image of  the King or individual in power at the time. It made trade much simpler and must have caused a recession in the scale business.

As is usually the case, it did allow for some skullduggery, clipping and shaving of coins was known to happen. Then Kings sometimes made the coins smaller with the same designation. This may have been the first form of Government endorsed inflation.  "Honey, were did we put that old scale?"

Interestingly, the size and weight of coins varied over the years, but the ratio of gold to silver was fairly constant from 500 BC up to the 20th Century.
Biblical  times-  12-1             Rome          12-1         Europe     0-1492        10-1
Early Greece      13-1             Early Japan  8-1                          1492-1834   15-1
Alexander          10-1             Early China  12-1        England                       16-1

The United States settled on the ratio of 15-1  The Constitution stated that all money was to be gold or silver coin.

O course, we have been talking about gold and silver coins. What about paper money?

In medieval Europe, gold and silver was the medium of exchange. When someone had a little more than needed for survival, they often placed it with a Goldsmith, who had a natural need for security in his business.  He would account for their items and give them a receipt.  The Rothschild's started out this way.  Humans sometimes being a little lazy, and not too careful about things, began to exchange the receipts for other goods and services and leave the gold with the goldsmith.  Goldsmiths, who were a little sharper than the average person of the day, soon realized that his receipts were as good as gold, and no one knew how much gold he really had stored for people. He was able to purchase Real-Estate, finance explorers to the new world and many other endeavors with his own receipts that did not represent gold in his possession. I could expound forever about how they used this power, but I will resist.

There were many known instances were these early bankers got a little too greedy, rumors circulated that there was more receipts than gold, and a run for their gold started.  When they could not produce the gold,  he might have been found hanging somewhere.

Remember, Politicians and Governments always take note of a good idea to increase their power and wealth.

Early paper money was a receipt for a weight of gold or silver, In the USA. a silver dollar was .7734 troy oz. of silver.  20 silver dollars could be exchanged for 1 Oz. troy of gold, a $20 gold piece. This was a ratio of 15-1. I personally remember silver certificates, which were supposed to be redeemable for 1 silver dollar. Up to 1934 you could exchange a $20 bill for a $20 gold coin. The US dollar had the reputation of being, "as good as gold". The gold-silver ratio today is 72-1.

In 1914, with passage of the Federal Reserve Act,  money no longer represented an asset, but would now represent Government debt. A promise to repay by the government.

In 1934, President Franklin Roosevelt, by executive order, ordered all citizens to turn in their Gold Coins in exchange for paper $20.00 bills. Private possession, or exchange of gold was outlawed. When the government decided they had confiscated all the gold they were going to get, they raised the price of gold to $35.00 oz., this was used for trade between countries. Those wonderful paper dollars they exchanged with the citizenry just became worth 43% less than the gold coins they exchanged.  Citizens were threatened with $10,000 fines and 10 years in jail for not cooperating.  Gold ownership was again legalized in December of 1974.

Silver still circulated as coins till 1964,  when they were replaced by alloys with no intrinsic value.
So now all money that exists, has  no intrinsic value, but only the confidence that someone else will exchange goods and services for it. While there are many instances in modern history where that confidence evaporated, so far most people are still willing to accept modern currency.

Currency itself is now in the process of being replaced with electronic currency, Bitcoin, Debit and Credit cards etc.. Endless possibilities, that will make the ancient clippers, shavers and dishonest goldsmiths envious.

originally published Oct. 12, 2015

It appears we are now coming to the end of fiat currency era, that is currency without any real built in value. What will replace it is yet to be seen. Big government would of course love to have currency that is just a digital entry, that they could manipulate, block, or devalue with a click of a computer. It seems some of the world is exploring another option that would be some form of real money. There is one of those age old truths that good money will always drive out bad money. That is true as long as there is an option of good money available. I expect we will seeing the new options in the near future. 
5/8/23

We now see the plan to introduce a central bank digital currency. Indeed, a monetary unit without any intrinsic value, unable to be held personally. It will allow governments to view every transaction, determine what transactions should be allowed, confiscate all wealth with the click of a computer key and in effect give government ultimate power over the people. It will be the end of all freedom of choice in a free market. It will give government the ability to tax, inflate, confiscate and dictate what can and cannot be traded. It will create all kinds of methods to avoid this trap and will be accompanied with the penalties to enforce that this is the only alternative money.
8/24/23

We can expect the unsustainable debt and deficits of the United States, accompanied by the desire of other countries to flee the use of the dollar, to reach a crisis in the near future. It is very likely that it will soon be clear that this debt will no longer find those willing to risk this haven for their real money. We can expect schemes to rescue this situation with possibly forced investment by IRA and 401's into U.S. debt or a sudden crisis followed by the end of this current fiat money system. We expect the cure to be total control of all assets.
5/3/2024

The EU is pushing to get its CBDC launched this year. As the debt situation in most of the western world is escalating many predict some sort of reset of the financial system. It will most likely be preceded by a debt crisis and then the roll out of the promised solution.
9/27/2024

We now see flight from U.S. bonds from countries around the world. It seems that interest rates are now possibly needed to rise to sell this debt. Those liquidating U.S. debt seem to be buying Monetary metal. The answer to shoring up the U.S. dollar and debt market is a balanced budget. With a $2 trillion deficit either raising taxes or cutting spending will cause a economic recession at best.
1/14/25

The purpose of this article is to hope to make people aware of what money is supposed to be. A store of value, an asset, not an instrument of manipulation by governments. 
3/17/2025

Gold is now $5200 an oz. silver $89.00 an oz. 57-1 ratio. No balanced budget in sight by any pollical party. The debt and deficits are unsustainable. The flight from fake paper money around the word continues.
2/27/2026

Debt continues to rise, gold and silver rise has paused during this Iran war, but the western banking and currency system is unsustainable. I reprint this with the hope that more will understand that money should be an asset under your own control.
6/1/2026




Friday, May 29, 2026

Message is clear, Nuclear weapons are best deterrence.

 CAN WE NOW SEE MORE NUCLEAR COUNTRIES?

CAN THEY ALL BE RESTRICTED BY MILITARY FORCE?



On January 29, 2002 George Bush 2 made a speech declaring the axis of evil of Iraq, Iran, and North Korea. On March 20, 2003 the U.S. invaded Iraq under the pretext that they sought nuclear weapons. North Korea and Iran then began their quest to become nuclear deterrent countries, with Iran suspending that program because of an edict by the Ayatollah Khomeini in 2003. North Korea became a nuclear power in 2006 and remains the only country not attacked by the U.S. 

While it is true North Korea has limited resources desirable by the United States, any country with resources may now be very well considering their only way of establishing a deterrence is by becoming a nuclear armed country. This would especially apply to Saudi Arabia and Turkey, one with resources and one already being listed by Israel as a possible threat and the keeper of a strategic choke point.

The message being heard by many countries is that their only assurance of real deterrence against some sort of attack is nuclear weapons. It is very likely that more countries are going to entertain the idea that it is in their best interest to go down that road. Large countries in South America have the capacity and skills to accomplish this very quickly, with open threats from its neighbor to the north and the example of Venezuela and Cuba they are probably considering this option.

Saudi Arabia already has a  defense agreement with nuclear armed Pakistan and the money to just purchase these weapons. Does anyone doubt that North Korea would sell weapons to those it found to be safe customers?

Japan swore off nuclear weapons after WW2, but that was a different generation, they may soon decide it is time to join the nuclear club, especially with the increased pressure to choose sides in the pacific region,  same with South Korea.

The technology is now 75 years old and the ability to manufacture these weapons is available to many nations. There is no longer any need for testing, just the ability to copy the plans and tests of some other nuclear country, which is most likely available. 

It may soon become impossible to play whack a mole by military force to stop the proliferation of nuclear weapons. The world political scene now indicates that nuclear weapons are going to be used somewhere in the near future. 





Thursday, May 28, 2026

Ukraine conflict heats up.

 MOSCOW INFORMS WEST TO EVACUATE EMBASSIES

BOTH SIDES ESCALATE



In the last few weeks Ukraine has attacked inside Russia in an increasing escalation, Russia responded with massive drone and missile attacks all across Ukraine. A few days ago Ukraine attacked a school dormitory that killed 22 students and injured scores, now it appears Russia is planning a massive attack on Kiev. 

There have been much speculation that Putin is under increasing pressure to bring this conflict to a close by increasing the level of military action, this may now be what is about to happen. 

Ukraine with the assistance of NATO members has used large numbers of NATO supplied drones for most of these attacks, even using NATO airspace for attacks inside Russia. Leaders in Russia are advocating attacking the sources of these drones, which will be an attack on some NATO members, then they will have to decide if they are ready to go to war with Russia.

In the next few days we can expect some unprecedented attacks on the decision centers of Ukraine in Kiev as NATO countries have all been informed to evacuate their personnel from Kiev, what comes next is still not clear.

Zelensky asked Trump for more air defenses but it is doubtful that any more is available.

Russia has lots of weapons to use to escalate and lots of targets to expand the conflict. Does the West have resources and the will to match that escalation?





Wednesday, May 27, 2026

Day 88, Talk of Peace, just talk, no substance.

 KEEPING MARKETS CALM

NO TALK OF ADDRESSING ROOT CAUSES


We are subjected to the daily narrative that peace is at hand and much progress has been made. In realty, the ceasefire is at the same place it was over 6 weeks ago, still looking for a way to defeat Iran without crashing the global economy. This week we saw U.S. attacks on Iranian boats and infrastructure supposedly in self defense even though the boats were close to the Iran's shore. This and drone and other flynear attempts all seem to be just hoping to locate Iran's air and other defense positions to be targeted in a future attack. There really is no desire for a lasting peace treaty with Iran, Israel wants the country destroyed and Trump wants control of the oil. It is just that simple.

Now we hear Trump proposing that part of the peace deal is for all countries in the region join the Abraham accords and recognize and normalize relations with Israel. What is missing from all this talk of peace is any mention of the Palestinian question and what is still going on in Gaza and the west bank. The very question that started this whole war and the very question that has been ongoing for near 8 decades. Very interesting, that it is never part of any talk about a regional normalization of relations. 

If there really was a hope of a comprehensive change in the political climate in the region, yes all parties should be involved, and that would include some resolution of the Palestinian problem. 

I suspect the focus on an end to the Iran war and the hope of not destroying the global economy is in some way a distraction from any real effort of a lasting solution for peace in the region. It may be time for the international community to lay out the real borders of Judea and also to carve out some place for the Palestinian people, otherwise this will continue for another 8 decades or until it is ended by nuclear war.




Tuesday, May 26, 2026

Tulsi Gabbard resigns. 3rd resignation at National intelligence agency.

 BEING A FIGUREHEAD IS VERY FRUSTRATING

JOE KENT AND AMARYLLIS FOX KENNEDY LEFT EARLIER



Tulsi Gabbard has resigned from her position as Director of National Intelligence. It was clear from the beginning of this administration that she and U.S. intelligence was mostly sidelined from the decision making process. Early on, she testified that U.S. intelligence was confident that Iran was not in the process of making nuclear weapons and had abandoned that idea in 2003. Up until 2025 the IAEA who had inspectors on the ground backed up that analysis. Iran had publicly disclosed that they had enriched Uranium up to 60% after the U.S. pulled out of the nuclear agreement, mostly in an effort to renegotiate that agreement.

After those statements from Gabbard she was no longer visible in the administration and Trump publicly claimed he had better information, presumably from Israeli Intelligence.

In the last few weeks she also disclosed that she was investigating U.S. funded biological labs in Ukraine and other countries, one must wonder if that was the impetus for pressure for her resignation. We can expect we will never hear of that investigation again. 

Gabbard was sent out to investigate election interference in Georgia, hardly the role of the Director of National  Intelligence.

There have been reports of a raid on her office by the CIA, who she is supposed to oversee, that took records concerning the JFK files and the MKUltra program, a program that was supposedly discontinued concerning mind control with experimental drugs and methods.

Tulsi Gabbard was viewed by many as honest and sincere in her hope of foreign policy reform, we can expect she is an example for others who should entertain such ideas.



Friday, May 22, 2026

Flotilla members abused by Israel while in captivity.

 NATIONAL SECURITY MINISTER PARTICIPATES

ISRAEL DENIES IT IS GOVERNMENT POLICY


On May 19, a flotilla of 41 vessels, called the "Global Sumud Flotilla"  was approached and boarded, by Israel military forces about 167 miles off the the Gaza coast in international waters. 428 of the members were taken captive and taken to israel. This is not the first time and possibly not the last such incident, but what has raised condemnation worldwide is the treatment of the captives members of 40 countries. Videos have emerged that have shocked most of the international community with obvious abuse and humiliation methods used.

The captives, with hands bound, were forced to crawl across the floor, kiss the Israel flag and swear allegiance to Israel.  Some were beaten for resisting with numerous injuries and they were deprived of water for over 30 hours. 

The worst part is that video show Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel's National security Minister. participating in these practices. 

While there has been condemnation inside of Israel, claiming that his is not Israeli policy, I suspect that if any national leader of any country engaged in such practices, he would be immediately be removed from his position. 

No matter what one might think about the flotilla agenda, Israel has again just given their enemies another massive propaganda victory. The U.S. government responded by sanctioning the leaders of the flotilla, without any formal condemnation.

A almost unbelievable series of abuse incidents have been reported, including sexual abuse of prisoners,  without any accountability for those involved. When the National security minister is directly participating in these abuse, it is hard to deny that this not government policy.






Thursday, May 21, 2026

Trump likes to play good cop, bad cop.

 TRUMP IS ALL IN ON WAR WITH IRAN

ACCESS TO IRAN OIL DEPENDS ON WINNING



We continually hear that Trump wants a negotiated end to the Iran conflict, this would be true, if Iran would surrender and hand over control of its oil resources. Of course, that would be the easy way, but since that is unlikely, any narrative about Trump seeking every way to avoid war and Bibi Netanyahu pushing for war is just so much theater. They are both all in on resuming this war when it is the deemed appropriate.

The same good cop and bad cop is being played out concerning Ukraine, there is no estrangement with the EU NATO members concerning the Ukraine conflict. When, and if, the oil of the Persian gulf is fully under control of the U.S., the pressure will resume by the U.S. on Russia. 

The goal is to control the world's energy supplies and demand submission and enforce the use of the U.S. dollar in world trade. It is a desperate gamble to maintain the US, and western control of world affairs. While its financial power is waning it is increasingly dependent on military power. The EU countries, in the same boat, are talking about building up their militaries to go to war with Russia by 2030, another desperate gamble.

The West has plans to dramatically increase military spending, even at the expense of domestic infrastructure and other domestic spending. Increasing debt in economies already experiencing massive, unsustainable debt, huge deficits, and a currency declining in buying power by the day. Engaging in wars that cause  the rise in inflation in food and energy to their citizens, all in the hope of being the dominant power in the world, without the sound bases at home for real power. It all appears to be an all or nothing gamble rather than a planned strategy to restore real wealth and political power by example.

Supporting a declining currency by force, rather than sound economic policy is a fools game.  As for the citizens, there will not be any winning, no matter the outcome, they will all pay for the gamble with declining living standards as the best outcome, but the worse outcome will be much more severe.





Wednesday, May 20, 2026

Sanctions and threats losing effectiveness.

 U.S. POLICY HAS UNITED ITS ADVERSARIES

RESULTS OFTEN COUNTER PRODUCTIVE



The United States now has sanctioned most of Asia with either primary or secondary sanctions. India has been a target, a country that sought neutrality from the global political conflicts, has refused to give up its nation's well being by honoring those sanctions. Sanctions that attempted to cut off Russia's sales of energy to India and raise the cost to India. China has recently forbade its refineries from obeying U.S. sanctions against Iranian and Russian oil. 

While India and China are the biggest countries not obeying sanctions and often costing them with trade with the U.S., they perceive that their countries best interest is to not get involved in these sanction schemes. The one principle for inclusion in the BRICS economic union is not engaging in sanctions on member countries. This represents over 50 % of global trade. 

While countries like Iran, Cuba and Venezuela have been under sanctions for over 50 years the Ukraine war and the attempts to isolate Russia led to sanctions exploding to all over the globe. After 4 years, Russia is still selling oil, even to the EU and Ukraine, while the diminished supply has devastated the economies of Europe. The incentives to buy oil from Russia has increased for India and China and has actually strengthened their relations in other ways.

Sanctions, while damaging those nations it targets, has become increasingly less effective, because nations resist damaging their own economies by enforcing sanctions. 

When santions become ineffective the next step is military action, enforcing embargo's,  capturing ships at sea or damaging nations oil infrastructure, all acts of war. Europe and Russia are now on the brink of war and we can expect either a cessation of these actions or war is inevitable.

While the U.S. has, so far, suffered little by imposing sanctions, we can expect that there are plenty of avenues for even nonmilitary retaliations. One that has been evident in the last few days is the large increase in yields of U.S. debt. This could be by BRICS nations no longer buying U.S. debt plus Gulf countries in need of cash to compensate for their lost oil revenues, caused by the Iran war. The yield on the 10 year is now 4.67% and on the 30 year 5.19% . This will dramatically increase the cost of servicing this debt and will increase the deficit of the U.S. budget. This may only be the first shot in retaliation in the economic warfare that has been underway for years.




Tuesday, May 19, 2026

Escalation before any peace seems inevitable.

 ESCALATION BOTH IN IRAN AND UKRAINE

GLOBAL ECONOMY GOING DOWN



Today it looks like escalation of the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine is on the menu. While Iran is taking up most of the news the more dangerous escalation is underway in the Ukraine conflict. Ukrainian drones, supplied by NATO countries, are increasingly targeting Russia and particularly Moscow. There are now also drones being launched by some Baltic countries into Russia and Lithuania is encouraging NATO to attack Kaliningrad the Russian territory in the Baltic. 

Pressure is building inside Russia to send a clear signal by some sort of retaliation to NATO, if the Baltic countries continue on their present path they may be the first to experience this message and it will probably be significant. This will bring about a dilemma in NATO, as they will then need to decide if they want to go to war with Russia for real, with the consequences.

There is no hope of any settlement in the Iran war. The U.S. demands essentially translate to disarmament of Iran which would leave them open to Israeli attacks and the inevitable end of their sovereignty. More attacks on Iran will very likely damage the global oil supply for possibly years, as Iran does have the capability to attack the oil infrastructure of the entire region. This would bring about a global economic crisis.

A negotiated settlement capable of ending this will signify a loss by the U.S., while possibly preserving the global economy, it would damage the political power of the U.S.. 

Wile the EU is searching for a possible negotiator to deal with Russia, a difficult undertaking, as it seems there is a dearth of real diplomats available. 

The same goes for the U.S., which seems beholding to numerous factions, all favoring more war, there are no real diplomatic negotiators on the horizon. The present U.S. negotiators have a poor record and now little respect or credibility with their counterparts both in Iran and Russia.




Monday, May 18, 2026

Trump, Xi, meeting, Polite but no substance.

 U.S. ALREADY AT WAR WITH CHINA

U.S. DESIRES DOMINATION RATHER THAN COEXISTENCE



Last week we watched the much anticipated Trump trip to China. As far as we know it was Trump who requested the meeting. Long gone are the heady days of the Trump 1st term when there was much hope of a respectful and mutual cooperation with China. Whether as Trump has indicated, he blamed China for covid, when in fact the covid research in Wuhan was financed by the U.S. government or Trump has bought into the narrative that China's goal is to rule the world, there is little left for serious discussion. The biggest positive result is that there is still any discussion at all.

It is not clear what the goal really was, was the bringing along the big Tech guys a proposed carrot for China and the blockade of the strait of Hormuz a stick, one can only guess. A real meeting with a major power requires months of pre negotiations on an agenda, this seemed to be little more that photo-op that something was going on.

XI made it clear that he opposed increased arms sales to Taiwan, again it seems the hope is to lure China into some sort of military confrontation in Taiwan, much like Ukraine. While Taiwan is big issue with China, Taiwan already does the majority of their business with China and China understands that time is on their side with negotiations with Taiwan. Short of a U.S. backed declaration of Independence by Taiwan, there is unlikely any military action by China. How long can the U.S. financially maintain its enormous cost of bases and military assistance in the Pacific?

Trump claims that XI wants the strait of Hormuz to be open, it is open to Chinese ships by Iran, but blocked by the U.S.

Trump also claims that XI  does not support fees by Iran, but it was not clear if they are willing to pay if necessary.

It is also claimed that China will not sell arms to Iran, but will they give them away for free or trade them for oil? China has great financial and political interest in Iran remaining a sovereign nation. 

I don't recall any promises from Trump.

The reality is that most of the world understands that the U.S. is in a process of attempting to control the world by gaining control of the oil resources around the world. This was stated clearly by Sergei Lavrov of Russia this weekend. Putin is on his way to China this week, we can expect they will be having serious discussion about just that. Time would have been better spent possibly by XI taking Trump on a tour of their Shipyards and ultra modern manufacturing plants, to better acquaint Trump to the reality of what he hopes to confront.

XI made it clear that the choice is between, partnership, coexistence and mutual prosperity or confrontation, so far, the U.S. policy is confrontation. This is expressed through political and government leaders continual talk of containment, backed up by attempts to sow discord in the Belt and Road and BRICS countries and the massive build up of forces in the Pacific.  

China, so far, has responded to tariff's and attempts at denying resources by adjusting and developing alternatives. It is suspected that they can maneuver around these efforts and that financial and political time is on their side. Confrontation has an erroneous cost. 



Friday, May 15, 2026

Russian attrition strategy coming to an end?

 PREPARES TO STRIKE UKRAINE SUPPLIERS 

INTERNAL PRESSURE FORCING CHANGE IN STRATEGY


It is now becoming evident that the rumors concerning a change of strategy by Russia in the Ukraine conflict is underway. Yesterday, Ukraine was hit by over 1600 aerial attacks that stretched all across the country, hitting military and logistics targets. 

The pressure to bring this conflict to a close has been going on for years, It was in full display when former head of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin marched on Moscow in June  2023 to force a change to a more intense effort. With the recent coordinated attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, more intense threats of war by NATO members and even drone attacks originating from some NATO member territory, it does appear that this change of strategy is now underway. The Latvian government is collapsing as a result of its allowing Ukrainian drones to target Russia from its soil.

While an increase in the intensity of the attacks on Ukraine seems to be underway,  that is not all, it is also being voiced by many in position of influence inside the government that it can be expected that those NATO countries that are supplying long range missiles to strike Russia will be soon targeted with conventional weapons if they do not cease. It is expected that their military manufacturing will be the target. The proposals also are considering the use of limited nuclear weapons if conventional weapons do not bring about an end to the supplies of long range missiles to Ukraine.

In recent months some NATO members have escalated both their support and their rhetoric, proposing attacking and blocking Russian oil shipments and threats to block their northern nports, all declarations of war. It seems we are about to see if these NATO members are really ready for war with Russia.




Thursday, May 14, 2026

Gabbard confirms U.S. funded 120 biolabs.

 PROMISES TO RELEASE LOCATIONS

40 BIOLABS LOCATED IN UKRAINE


Tulsi Gabbard has confirmed that there is an ongoing investigation into the U.S. funding of over 120 biolabs in other countries, including over $1 billion to the Wuhan lab on Covid gain of function research. Most of these labs did research in some sort of gain of function with numerous deadly diseases.

She has also admitted to possibly 40 labs in Ukraine that was originally labeled by the western press as Russian disinformation.

It seems the funding was provided by National Institute of Health and the Department of Defense.

There are indications that new labs have been set up in Africa.

Originally the U.S. denied that they funded any such research, but more evidence has been gathered to support that they did support such research.

The big question has always been, WHY, what is the purpose, and what use is planned for the results of this research. 




Wednesday, May 13, 2026

Does your federal representative represent you?

 I FEAR THEY ALL REPRESENT WASHINGTON

REFORMS NEED TO BE DEMANDED BY CITIZENS



With primaries coming up in the next few weeks and midterm elections coming in 6 months, many question if there will ever be any difference, no matter who is elected.  We hear all the campaign slogans, the diatribe against their opponent, but in reality very little changes. The biggest reason that little changes is that once elected, these representatives spend most of their time in Washington, only coming home for occasion fundraisers or photo ops. It is almost inevitable that they are soon overwhelmed by the culture of Washington, no matter their good intentions, when first running for office.

Their party and their Washington donors have much more power over them than any power in their district. That power translates into campaign money, and media image building. If there is no reform concerning our representatives there will not be any change and they will in effect just be representatives of Washington to you, rather than the other way around.

Making changes will require a steadfast demand for simple changes by you, the voters. Voters need to focus more on the overall well being of the country rather than some hope of benefits or financial incentives of bringing home the bacon. After decades of this incentive, the bacon is getting slimmer, and the debt and loss of representation is getting greater.  

Just a few simple demand by voters would be a start.

1. Limit campaign donations to only money from citizens of their district. Eliminate money from outside the district, even from  national parties. Do not vote for any representative who accepts money from foreign lobbies of any kind. We should also demand daily disclosure of  contributions on their website. 

Personally I have been a super voter for near 50 years, I fully expect that I may no longer be able to find a candidate to vote for, under these conditions, we have to start somewhere.

2. Representatives must maintain an office in their district that they occupy, not in Washington. No more wining and dining with special interests 300 days a year and only coming home for the campaign season. They can conduct business right from their office and I suspect they could even do their voting from this office. It would remove a lot of the power of parties and lobbyists. They need to represent the people of their district, that is what this job is supposed to be about. If they need to depend on the support in all ways from the citizens, they will better represent those citizens.

While there are most likely many more reforms needed, this would be a major start to really restoring our system of government as it was intended.





 

Tuesday, May 12, 2026

Day 74, No change in Iran non negotiations.

 NO CHANGE IN POSITIONS SINCE BEGINNING OF WAR

BEST DEAL WAS REACHED IN GENEVA


Sending messages back and forth with the same ultimatums and demands is not negotiations, there is no movement to end this Iran conflict.  It has been reported that the best deal was achieved in Geneva when Iran agreed to most parts of the nuclear deal and the war began the next day. We should not expect that any negotiated peace is possible at this point. It seems there is probing attacks and some sort of effort to find a weak spot in Iran in the hope of some decisive military action,  an action to defeat Iran without collapsing the world economy. 

Trump is off to China to meet XI, unless war resumes, I wonder if there is really anything to talk about? We will soon be at an impasse with China, especially with the continuous trash talk coming out of Washington.  The reality is that contrary to the narrative about China needing access to the U.S. market, it will soon be true that they will no longer need that access, but can the U.S. survive without the products now made in China? As for cutting off their energy from the Gulf, don't underestimate China's ability to increase its moves to other forms of energy and also increase access to Russian oil.

Rumors are increasing of a decisive event building internally in Ukraine, coupled with other reports that Putin has finally been convinced by his right wing to get this conflict over with quickly. A combination of internal turmoil and outside escalation at the same time?

Financial problems in the Gulf countries, who have massively increased their debt in an effort to diversify away for dependence on oil, but insured by oil revenues that no longer exit. The fear is that they will need to start liquidating their U.S. holdings, already causing some private equity firms to limit withdrawals. The U.S. treasury it seems is hoping to rescue them rather than let their liquidations start a slide in asset prices. Can the  U.S. treasury prop up any more, when it is having a hard time doing the same at home? 

Something has to give soon, oil needs to flow or increased prices and actual shortages will inevitably cause liquidations of other assets, once started, it may be impossible to stop.







Monday, May 11, 2026

Are Plug in EV's soon obsolete?

 CHINA AUTOMAKERS BECOMING INNOVATIVE LEADERS

BECOMING THE DOMINANT GLOBAL AUTOMAKERS



Chinese automakers, now producing 35 million vehicles in 2025, are also becoming leaders in innovation. It seems the innovations are moving so fast that within only a few years older models are looking obsolete. China is the largest producer of electric vehicles. It is also the largest producer of vehicles, 35 million,  with the U.S. second at 10 million and Japan third at 6.2 million. China exported 8.3 million vehicles with the largest markets Mexico, Russia, UAE and the UK. China also exported over 500,000 used vehicles. Canada is expected to allow a test import of 50,000 cars in the near future.

They are manufacturing small electric city cars with 300 mile range for near $10,000 up to exotic cars with 1200 hp competing with the Italian sports cars for under $100,000. 

Their latest innovations are a BYD hybrid that uses a super efficient gas motor rated at 46% efficiency that eliminates the transmission, which uses lots of power, and the engine runs a generator system that runs the car electrically until it get up to highway speed, then switches to low RPM direct engine drive. It is rated to deliver around 85 miles per gallon. This translates to a range for the vehicle of 1300 miles. The average efficiency of other vehicles is near 30%. 

Dongfeng company has stated that they have produced a new engine at over 48% efficiency that will produce 94 miles per gallon with a Hybrid driveline. 

Not much feedback is available on the maintenance and realizability of these cars, but when the EU and NATO forced BMW, VW and Mercedes to suspend car exports to Russia, the Chinese quickly replaced those cars. While Russians were apprehensive it seems they are becoming satisfied with their new Chinese autos.

It is not expected that Chinese cars will ever be imported into the US, but the rest of the world will be a massive market for Chinese cars. There are reports of Chinese cars showing up in Texas in greater numbers, driven by Mexican commuters. 






Friday, May 8, 2026

Day 70, Indications of war far into the future.

 SENATE DEFENSE BUDGET HEARING INDICATES MORE WAR

PERSIAN GULF STRAIT AUTHORITY UNVEILED



The Persian gulf war ceasefire seems to be on life support and hostilities could commence at any time. It appears that war will be the status for many months, if not years to come. 

Yesterday, Iran unveiled its new "Persian Gulf Strait authority", PGSA, to administer traffic through the strait of Hormuz, It defines the corridors and conditions complete with application forms. We will see if it will be able to allow traffic through the strait.

The recent Senate hearings on the new Defense Budget to $1.5 trillion seems to have many Senators, both Democrat and Republican, ecstatic at the hope of government money flowing into their states. We can expect that massive increase will be approved. The hearings narrative is that the United States now faces threats from many places and national security must be the most important thing on the agenda. It now appears that the Trump administration will soon confine its focus to foreign relations and war on many fronts. 

Discussion in the hearings on the need to implement the "Defense Production Act" and use corporations to increase military supplies including Detroit Auto makers. It is also planned to replace the dwindling energy supplies out of the gulf with U.S. LNG. creating excitement from Alaska's senators. One must ask, is the U.S. about to go on a total war footing? 

It may be that the status of the strait of Hormuz is exactly what is desired, replacing Persian gulf oil with U.S. LNG and thereby cutting off energy to those who we want to contain and control, and insure the payments in U.S. dollars.

Also part of the new budget is starting in December 2026, the Selective service registration will be automatically completed by information gathered from existing data. It will apply to all males between 18 and 26. 

It is clear that dominating the globe will require many more ships and sailors.







Thursday, May 7, 2026

Day 69, More fake peace announcements?

 OIL PLUMMETS AGAIN ON PEACE PLAN

AMAZING THAT THIS STILL WORKS



On Sunday we saw the new plan to open the strait of Hormuz, it lasted one day. It was then followed by an announcement of an imminent peace deal, that only the U.S. knows anything about. It was followed by large drop in the oil futures market, just like after every other imminent peace deal. 

Project freedom lasted one day because Iran struck the UAE oil terminal that bypasses the strait of Hormuz and directs oil to the Red sea. It is reported that Saudi Arabia and Qatar also complained that it was going to risk damage to their oil facilities. Saudi Arabia yesterday announced it would now ban the use of its airfields and airspace for future attacks on Iran. The gulf nations understand that Iran is warning that if attacked again, they will destroy the oil production facilities in the region.

It seems there really is no progress on an end to this conflict and I doubt that Trump is that concerned if the gulf oil is taken offline permanently, except for the rise of the oil price, which would be politically damaging.  It is becoming obvious Trump believes the U.S. can supply oil to its allies if necessary and will increase the U.S. trade income.

The trade war, especially in oil, is heating up, Ukraine, with the help of the NATO, is increasing its attacks on Russian oil. Interruption of oil tankers is occurring in many places. Russia has warned Ukraine that any attacks on Moscow during their WW2 celebrations this weekend is going to result in a massive attack on Kiev, and has recommended the evacuation of civilians from Kiev. I doubt that this is an idle threat.

The increased threat to global oil supplies can be expected to result in big power direct conflict at some time, probably soon.

As for Iran, the air war has not brought about capitulation, further air war promises to bring retaliation and a further damage  to oil supplies. The attempt to capture the nuclear material failed and the attempt to open the strait also failed. Now in the 10th week, it may be an indication that this conflict may go on for many months. It is racking up enormous costs to everyone on the planet. There is no indication that either side will capitulate any time soon.



Wednesday, May 6, 2026

U.S. policy, Reinvent the British Empire?

PLANNING ON  RULING THE WORLD

CONTROLLING GLOBAL CHOKE POINTS AND ENERGY



While many assume the Iran war is a tragic mistake or caused by Trump's deference to Israel. The reality is becoming quite clear that this is all about global dominance. It is not a mistake, it is all about the foreign policy adopted long ago, at least for 35 years. It is nothing more than an attempt to reinvent the British Empire, but under U.S. dominance. 

At one time the British Empire came as close to any nation in history in ruling the world. While Greece, Rome and others ruled the advanced world of the time, only the British empire did, in effect, rule the world. It was not possible until the industrial age with ships and eventually aviation, capable of projecting power around the world. 

It seems this plan has been adopted by the Trump administration, before being sworn in for his second term. He signed on for the plan being pursued by previous administrations.  Whether the American citizenry really wants to adopt the policies of the former British empire, is yet to be decided. A system that created division, death and destruction and forced it dominance by any means possible, starvation in Ireland and India, forced drug acceptance in China or brute military power. For any Christian or other person with a morale foundation it is not what we should be setting the hope of our future on.

The signs were visible since the beginning of this administration, The changing of the name of the department of defense to the department of war. The funneling of all saving wrought by DOGE to the military budget and now the hope of increasing the military budget by 50%. The plan to retake control of the Panama Canal and the plan to incorporate Greenland and Canada into the U.S.,the colonisation of Venezuelan oil and now the attempt to take control of Iranian oil, all Persian gulf oil and control the strait of Hormuz and Malacca straits. This is also tied to the hope of gaining access to Russian oil and resources or make them unavailable to the rest of the world. It is a hope to control the flow of energy and resources all around the world and thereby force political compliance and the use of the dollar in world trade. 

So far, the rest of the world has not seriously pushed back to this plan, whether because they do not believe the U.S. has the financial or manufacturing base to support this project and would rather see it die of its own overextension rather than by military confrontation. We may expect that soon all that may change, as now, the economic security of many nations is being threatened.

This plan requires a large vibrant Navy. The U.S. produced .5% of the world ships, China produces 50%., similar statistics relate to steel production, China produces over 1 Billion tons, the U.S. 80 million tons. A world ruling nation needs massive amounts of production. It also requires massive investment in capacity, the U.S has near $40 Trillion in debt caused by past consumption, with little available for investment in the future.

If the plan is to "Make America Great Again" by coercion, threats and controlling who will get resources and at what price, the leadership should have focused on providing the ability to sustain that power. When this power is seriously challenged, which it soon will, it may be a short and devastating disappointment.






Tuesday, May 5, 2026

Will AI produce wealth?

GOVERNMENTS MAY BE BIGGEST CUSTOMERS

WILL AID IN EXPANDING SURVEILLANCE STATE



AI has become the biggest source of speculative profit in the stock market. It is estimated that 75 to 80% of the stock market gains in 2025 were related to AI stocks. It brings back memories of the .com boom and bust of the past. While I suspect there will be success stories in AI, I have yet to understand how this new phenomenon will translate to more food, energy or improvement in the standard of living of the general population. 

So far,  it appears the biggest customer is government, for either military applications or for expanding the surveillance state. I suppose that it could eliminate a lot of jobs and costs in the bureaucracy, but only time will tell if it will be used in that way.  I also believe that there will be a massive bust in these companies as the best and those with the applications that can produce wealth will survive and prosper. With the advent of the internet, those companies and applications that increase sales and revenue out lasted those that did not. In most cases it was able to facilitate the movement of goods and services to more people more efficiently.   

So far, AI appears to be mostly about collecting data. We hear of massive data centers rising everywhere, with there thirst for energy. A thirst that may add to the cost to the public, but will it benefit the public or just make data about the populace a commodity. A commodity that will not likely produce any product or resource needed for human needs.

If AI is going to be used to better surveil and control the population one has to wonder, why. Does government now view its citizens with suspicion and will AI make it easier to identify those that may not be willing to easily conform to government plans. 

It seems the world is hell bent, or at least the elites and governments, about the possibilities of AI, all to be paid for by the taxpayers. There needs to be a better explanation of how this new technology will add to the wellbeing of the general population.






 

Monday, May 4, 2026

Day 66. U.S. goal is control of global oil.

 ASSUMED PATH TO GLOBAL CONTROL

ALL DEPENDENT ON U.S. NAVY



We must assume that the crisis in Iran will continue, no matter the consequences to the global economic system. It is now clear that oil is the ultimate weapon to be used to maintain political control of the global economic system.  While many assume the Iran war was a blunder or a plan originating in Israel, it is far more. It is just one step in a attempt to maintain control of the global economy. 

It seems Trump's second term is all in on the ongoing plan of the neocon elements in the U.S. to maintain U.S. global hegemony. This plan started with the first Bush administration, if not sooner, and has been followed by every administration with the possible exception of the first Trump administration. The hope is to maintain global control by controlling global oil supplies. So far, the U.S., besides being the largest producer of oil, at least for now, controls the oil of Venezuela and Iraq, and now all the oil coming out of the Persian gulf. Don't expect the U.S. to relinquish this power anytime soon. 

As the U.S. has focused on the persian gulf, they have delegated the diminishing of Russian oil to, Europe and Ukraine., who have been increasing their attacks on Russian oil production. I suspect the so called estrangement with NATO is just so much theater. It seems Ukraine is now more focused on attacking Russian oil production than even defending their territory and the EU is upping pressure on Russian navigation, everywhere it can.

With the blockade of the strait of Hormuz and pressure being exerted on Indonesia to give the U.S. access to controlling the strait of Malacca, the U.S. can control most petroleum products destined for China and all the southeast Asian countries all either part of BRICS or ASEAN alternatives to U.S. controlled economic system.

The attempt is to force the use of the dollar in international trade and hope to continue the U.S. ability to use sanctions and other pressure to maintain political control. The gulf nations were beginning to trade their oil for other currencies, with the U.S. controlling the Strait of Hormuz that will come to an end. 

While there has been success so far, Europe has been stripped of their access to Russian oil, by sanctions and the destruction of the oil pipeline, the big target now is China and southeast asia. So far, India has resisted giving up its access to Russian oil and China has just in the last few days refused to adhere to U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil. Trump is expected to visit China in ten days, and we can expect an attempt to intimidate China.

While all this seems to be well underway, no one has yet to challenge the U.S. on the high seas. The big enforcer of all this is the U.S. Navy, the undisputed, as least so far, dominant Navy in the world. The question is, can the U.S. maintain this Navy, with the economic crisis of debt, fiscal irresponsibility and a manufacturing base that is questionable in maintaining and renewing this naval power.

The U.S. has 11 aircraft carriers and only 3 are in service, and one of those is now headed for the U.S. There are serious morale problems reported due to long overextended duty cycles and the same applies so the U.S. reserve system decimated by long and repeated call ups. As this attempt to control the oil increases, it will be a serious threat to many and can the U.S. increase its Naval presence and can it replace any vessels damaged or destroyed? Can it find the qualified sailors to keep this fleet in service? 

As this use of the NAVY increases, we can expect pushback for those affected by diminished oil resources, the U.S. Navy is the obvious target, and there are several that have substantial capabilities to challenge the NAVY dominance.