Logistical problems of the Iran war.

 THE PROBLEMS WITH A 10,000 MILE AWAY WAR

SUPPLY IS MONUMENTAL UNDERTAKING 

 

The recent revelations about the difficulties on the Abraham Lincoln have brought the difficulties of the supplying the necessary materials to the region to the surface. Iran is over 7000 miles from California in a straight line and all those supplies have to come from the U.S. mainland at some point. Of course we have bases in Hawaii, Philippines and Japan, but it is still a massive undertaking. Most supplies have to be transported by ship. 

 

The U.S. main base in the gulf region was in Bahrain the headquarters of 5th fleet. It was evacuated within days of the onset of conflict and no longer is able to be used. This leaves Diego Garcia 2500 miles from Iran. I recall that the British confiscated the Island from the locals in the late 1960's and turned it over to the U.S. to be used as a base. The Navy scuttlebutt at the time was that it was going to be pivotal as the focus was shifting from southeast Asia to the middle east. Interesting that this was way before  the Islamic revolution Saddam Hussein, or other issue in the middle east.

 

Diego Garcia is 5200 miles from Japan, 3600 miles from the Philippines, 8900 miles from Hawaii. Ships like supply vessels usually travel at around 20 miles an hour. The distances are not in a straight line and have many tuns and detours.

 

While Navy warships can be resupplied at sea it is confined to food, fuel and items that can be moved ship to ship. Munitions, particularly missiles, have to be resupplied  in port.  With the closest base now 2500 miles away it is massive undertaking and very costly. 

 

Aircraft logistics are also a massive undertaking.  Iran is near 1000 miles from Israel and Jordan, this is were most of the land aircraft and tankers have been relocated, as gulf bases have been severally damaged. All offensive aircraft must be refueled once incoming and once outgoing in the air, as the fuel range is near 600 miles. Aircraft carriers are positioned as far as 600 miles away and also need in air refueling. Most of the defensive  missiles have been moved around Israel and Jordon to protect these tankers and aircraft.

 

 The long range radar  stations have all been destroyed and are being replaced by airborn AWAC aircraft. The warning times for incoming missiles is now only minutes for bases in Israel and Jordon. 

 

It now becomes more clear to why Russia has not moved deep into Ukraine as it has its logistical support within only miles of its supplies. For Ukraine it is 800 miles from Poland to the front

 

Logistics is always a great part of any conflict. in a attrition war it can be the deciding factor. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The U.S. has lost internal control of its future.

 CHANGES WILL NOT COME FROM THE ELECTORAL PROCESS

OUTSIDE FORCES WILL FORCE REAL CHANGES

 

We now hear of the great changes coming from a midterm election and then of course 2028. The direction of the country is no longer governed by elections and thoughtful decisions, it is going to be governed by the consequences of decades of irresponsibility and past decisions. Decisions not made by citizens or in the best interest of the country, but decisions made by numerous groups of special interests who have sown the seeds of the country's demise. The country will survive, but it may be decades for it to recover to a sound, stable and prosperous future.

 

I am sure many will dismiss such speculation as just doom and gloom appraisals of the situation, but it is clear the foreign policy of this country has been dictated by others, rather than the people or even its elected officials. It seems presidents are allowed to whipsaw the internal domestic politics, but foreign policy and the direction of the country is uniform and the same no matter election outcomes. The midterms and the 2028 election will be very anticlimactic and will have no effect on the real direction of the country.

 

The Democrats, due to their embrace of mediocrity, literally do not have any candidates qualified to lead or bring any vision for the future. We will see a domestic agenda of a move to more socialism, more spending, more debt and still war in numerous places.

 

The Republicans will be unable to shake themselves of the control of donors and those who believe we can still force the world to submit to our diminishing power.  More spending, more debt and war in numerous places.

 

The country is on a rail to its demise financially and politically and with the present debate of deciding if nuclear weapons are now the last ditch  method to enforce submission, it may all  make irrelevant any dog and pony show election distraction.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Are we destroying Navy morale?

 250 DAYS AT SEA IS UNBEARABLE

GOOD LUCK WITH NAVY RECRUITMENT

 

We are sometimes reminded of the horrors of crossing the Atlantic in sailing ships, Columbus,  the Pilgrims and others, their voyage lasted between 28 and 50 days. While today it is much safer than in those days,  time on the water is an exhausting affair.

 

I have spent as many as 90 and 120 days at sea and as young person it was a very depressing and overwhelming affair. Usually fresh water is rationed, hence the term,"Navy Showers", eggs that are 90 days old, safe, but not very appetizing. It is a test of endurance and possibly more so without a clear mission and objective.

 

The recent revelation about the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln is something that should not be happening, similar problems arose with the Gerald Ford with stories of internal sabotage etc. With eleven carriers, why have they not being rotated in a sensible humane way? It seems most of the others are in port, under repair and one wonders if they actually have crews to man all these carriers. 

 

This is an aircraft carrier and I suspect the same problems, but worse, are happening on the other smaller ships, which are not as comfortable or have the same quality of supplies as the the big ships. No one has mentioned that the climate this time of year in that region is often 120 degrees. One has to wonder if the air conditioning can keep up? 

 

I recall being at sea for months and the talk of sabotage or mutiny soon become commonplace, although none ever happened. Twice that time at sea is not really understandable or comprehensible. We can expect that it will have a long term effect on many of these sailors, their reenlistment rate will undoubtedly decline and when they hit  port, some will not return.

 

A similar abuse of the reserve forces in the other gulf wars I suspect has had lasting effects on recruitment. Many reservists, there for an existential threat to the nation, were called up for  1 year and sometimes multiple 1 year call ups, resulting in loss of homes, due to foreclosure, wives and families. Their lives were damaged sometimes irreversibly.

 

The repercussion of this war and other preceding wars is having lasting effects on the nation in more ways than can be predicted.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug. 13, 1971 beginning of U.S. economic decline.

 ITS BEEN DOWNHILL EVER SINCE

NOW ESCALATING 

 

On August 13, 1971 Richard Nixon met with 15 advisers at Camp David and sealed the fate of the U.S. dollar and the economic future of the country. While this fate could have been reversed, and we have had some periods of slowing, it has been a downward spiral ever since. It is now generally conceded that reversal is now impossible, only an unprecedented crisis awaits.

 

On this day 55 years ago, Nixon, by executive order, temporarily ceased to exchange U.S. currency for gold. This was a reaction due to the increase in foreign countries demanding gold for their inflation ridden dollars and the U.S. feared that its gold reserves would quickly be depleted. It would have, only 2 years after the last balanced budget of the U.S., many were aware of the direction the dollar was going and hoped to cash in while they could. Nixon also imposed wage and price controls and a 10% tariff on imported goods, it had little effect and the rest is now history. 

 

In 1974 Nixon repriced gold from $35 an oz. to $42.22 were officially it remains today. The market price of gold today is $4375 an ounce. A glaring result of the continuous devaluation of the dollar in the last 55 years, much of it in the last 20 years, as the deficits increase, the debt is now considered unsustainable and any informed investors understand that it is all unsustainable and something will break very soon.

 

The Vietnam war and the great society socialist expansion resulted in the first budget deficits.  Raising taxes to pay for these things would be politically unpopular just as they are today, except today it is virtually impossible to increase taxes enough or cut spending enough without a serious economic crisis as a result. Most understand that it is now too far gone to be corrected.

 

Much of the focus is now on protecting and sustaining the dollar as the worlds reserve currency, it is no longer possible, it has been virtually destroyed over the last 55 years and much of the world is now moving to gold and silver as a better store of wealth. 

 

In fact we are now increasing the debt by $Trillions  in an effort to force others to keep accepting diminishing in value dollars, just making the matter worse.

 

While this act by Nixon was one part of the beginning decline of America there is much more that we will address in another time. 

 

We have been told repeatably that gold as a basis of real money is an antiquated relic of the past, but we are going to witness that unbacked paper money is an attempt to steal the labor and assets of all that count on it as a store of wealth, it is a purse with holes  and fraud on all those who rely on it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Are West Asia countries hedging their bets?

 NEW ALLIANCES REPLACING THE U.S.?

IRAN WAR HAS HASTENED DECLINE OF U.S. INFLUENCE

 

The recent announcement of a new security agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan may be an indication that gulf countries are now planning to take control of their own security. They may have discovered that the U.S. is no longer in a position to offer that security. It is still not clear to what length this agreement goes and who they consider their biggest threat. While some assume it is an alliance to protect from Iran, it may be a growing alliance to protect from Israel and the United States.

 

Will Pakistan soon share nuclear technology to both Turkey and Saudi Arabia? Trump had proposed Saudi Arabia be assisted with nuclear enrichment, but only if they join the Abraham accords, which they refuse to do without a two state solution. Pakistan has had a close relationship with U.S. intelligence and one must wonder why they have been trusted by Iran in negotiations. Pakistan has also been cozying up to China, are they also hedging their bets?

 

This so called Mideast NATO has recently been proposed by Egypt, we will see if Egypt will be an addition to this group in the near future.  

 

One can understand the insecurity of these countries with the narrative coming out of Israel that Turkey is considered a greater threat to Israel than Iran and also concern about Egypt. It would be reasonable for these  countries to assume that the U.S. may also consider them a threat in the future. It is not far fetched to consider that even a alliance with Iran, insured by China could be in the future.

 

Then there is the clear indication that U.S. foreign policy is being based on the control of the worlds oil supplies, also a threat to their sovereignty. 

 

With the rise of MBS in Saudi Arabia the country  has cracked down on the support for international terrorism that once was financed by some in the country. His leadership has moved the country into a more aggressive entrance into the world financial community. The concern of the U.S. has been the acceptance of using Chinese currency in its oil transactions rather than the dollar. This is big no no for the U.S. and MBS likely understands that this will cause a problem with the U.S. The problem is, that most of these countries see China as a valuable partner for the future, both financially and politically, another reason for more hedging with an uncertain future. 

 

 

 

 

No Iran deal, just dueling economic warfare.

 U.S. WILL NEVER MAKE A DEAL WITH IRAN

IT WILL BE BACK TO WAR SOONER OR LATER 

 

It appears for now that the latest strategy is imposing economic hardship on Iran until it submits or surrenders to the U.S.  At the same time Iran will keep the strait closed until the U.S. is forced by internal and global pressure to back off from this war. 

 

The Israeli's concede that they may have to wait some time for the Iranian's to collapse and succumb to economic pressure, but they assume they will go the way of Syria, even if it takes years.

 

The Iranians also believe that in the short run they can cause severe damage to the presidency of Donald Trump  by continuing the economic pressure caused by the dispute over the strait. 

 

They all have reason to assume their analysis is correct, except there are many more interlocking variables to consider.

 

There is substantial evidence that this conflict will soon result in a global economic crisis that may far overshadow this conflict, way before Iran or the U.S. are willing to concede.

 

The internal politics of both the U.S. and Israel are very likely to become far more complicated in the short run than for Iran. 

 

Israel is claiming that Iran is forgoing attacks on Israel because they fear Israel's retaliation, I doubt this is the case.  Iran understands that without U,S. it will be at the mercy of Iran, so its focus is now on the U.S. 

 

We should expect that it will soon become obvious that economic pressure on Iran will not end this and a a last ditch attempt to overwhelm Iran militarily will eventually be on the agenda. It may be the last all or nothing throw of the dice.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ukraine down to their last strongholds?

 DONBAS DEFENSE BELT UNDER EVACUATION 

MAY BE FINAL BATTLE FOR REGION 

 

Civilians are being evacuated from the main defense belt of the Donbas region,  the stage is set for the final battle for the Donbas region. While the war may continue, it will be a major step to ending this war. 

 

Most observers believe that when Russia secures this region plus the other 2 reaming areas, Kherson and Zaporizhzia, it will be a prime time for a negotiated settlement. When this area falls it will make the defense of the other regions far harder to defend.  At present this battle shapes up as the largest and most defining battle in this 4 year war. With anticipated causalities of 100,000 on both sides and possibly lasting for the rest of the year, it may be anticlimactic. It may be that Ukraine will not be able to last another 6 months and internal crisis will actually bring all this to an end sooner. Either way, it will be a pivotal battle in this war.

 

While much is made about Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian ships and infrastructure, the reality is that Ukraine has lost control of the Black Sea and the port of Odessa, a another pivotal reality.  Ukraine is on its way to being a landlocked nation whose economic future will be greatly diminished.

 

It is hard to envision any real peace in Ukraine,  even after hostiles end, it looks like years of suffering  and economic decline. Will the west be in an economic position to rebuild what will be left of Ukraine? It is likely that the areas that are part of Russia, will outperform what remains.

 

 

 

Growing cost of maintaining empire.

WILL $1.5 TRILLION DEFENSE BUDGET BE ENOUGH?

BLEEDING TO THE POINT OF EXHAUSTION

 

Osama bin Laden warned the US that if they continued on their path in the middle east they would be bled to the point of collapse.  The architect of the 911 attack is long gone, but his worlds are more relevant today than in 2001, 25 years ago. With another prolonged costly war underway in Iran and another in Ukraine, can the US continue to be the master of the globe?

 

We hear the new demand for $1.5 Trillion defense budget, an increase of $500 billion, as being necessary to defend the country from adversaries hell bent on the US destruction. The US has an estimated 750 to 800 military bases around the world, only an estimate, as no one really knows for sure how many. The UK also bankrupt, has the next largest number at around 100. The great so called threats to the US, Russia and China may have several dozen in lands adjacent to or bordering their countries. 

 

The US present Defense or War budget is now $954 billion and is claimed to be seriously inadequate.  China, a country with over 1 billion citizens, is next at $335 billion, admittedly rising, mostly due to continuous threats of US military and political leaders of inevitable war with China. Russia's military budget is estimated at $190 billion. Israel at $48 billion and Iran at $7.4 billion. No one is counting the pallets of US dollars handed out as bribes and incentives for other players to do military related operations for the greatest spender on the planet in human history, much of it borrowed or just plain printed money.

 

No one doubts that the US can ultimately defeat any adversary, ultimately with the use of nuclear weapons if necessary, at least for now. The question is how long can the US maintain the financial power to keep maintaining this empire, that is fraying badly. In December the selective service registration will become automatic and some suspect that it will be necessary to add many more warm bodies to the ranks to keep up the defense of empire. Reluctant warm bodies have often proved to be sometimes a liability rather than an asset, but I suspect this is were the country is going, like on a rail, with out brakes, until it ultimately self derails.

 

All the while, the adversaries may understand better than the architects of this empire that it is all unsustainable and time is running out, they just need to survive and not directly confront the monster, until it self destructs. 

 

 

 

 

Iran and Oman agree to strait plan.

 WILL TRUMP END BLOCKADE?

THE CHANGING GLOBAL ORDER

 

Iran and Oman have announced that they have worked out the details on a plan to insure safe passage through the strait of Hormuz, if this is correct, the only obstacle for free flow of passage is the Trump blockade, another dilemma for Trump. It seems that traffic will enter the strait on Iran's side of the strait and exit on Oman's side. Both countries will cooperate in maintaining orderly traffic to insure environmental guidelines and assist in any safety problems. They will charge a small fee for this service, no toll, maintaining that such fees conform to international maritime law.   

 

In effect, this agreement maintains that the strait can now be open and it will all depend on whether Trump will accept this arrangement. We can expect the majority of the countries who depend on traffic through the strait, will agree to this plan. There is speculation that Trump will agree, if the US shares in the income from the fees or assists in Oman's share of the regulation.

 

This may be another opportunity for Trump to declare victory and get out of this mess, without destroying the global economy. We can bet the wires are burning up from all those opposed and possibly from those that will accept this solution.

 

In the Ukraine conflict Russia has in effect disabled Ukraine from using the port of Odessa. It is unlikely that Ukraine can regain use of the port, making it a landlocked country.

 

The US is attempting to intervene in the Japan bond market crisis, also part of the consequences of the energy problems in Asia caused by the Iran war. 

 

The world is watching as the dynamics of the existing world order are in transition.

 

 

 

 

Iran negotiating with Oman on future of strait.

 NEW REALITY EMERGING IN WEST ASIA

 NEW REALITY WITHOUT ANY DEAL?

 

While much angst and threats of escalation continue, Iran and Oman have come to the final details on the plan to regulate traffic in the strait of Hormuz. One must wonder if the Iran crisis will end with a gradual change in the political alliances rather than a destruction of Iran. Of course, it is too early to tell, but world economic pressure is rising on many fronts and a continuation of the present conflict is becoming harder to justify.

 

While Iran has for most of this conflict had a policy of retaliation from attacks in a measured 1 on 1 response, it now seems it is attempting to increase its retaliation to be more aggressive in response. At present things have died down militarily, and escalation is becoming very dangerous politically, economically and even militarily. While there is talk of negotiations, there may be talking between intermediaries, there is not any direct talks between Iran and US and it seems there is not going to be any.

 

The Gulf countries are now in a box of their own, there is reluctance to support further escalation that could destroy these countries economically for years to come. Also, and one must suspect while the governments fear and are reluctant to deal with Iran their populations are now beginning to view Iran as the strong actor in the region. The much touted Shia Sunni division may be less real  in the general populations than in their governments. Is Iran becoming more of a hero to the Muslim population as this crisis goes on?  Iran has been able to engage in a rational unemotional policy that has been very disciplined and transparent, resistance with power, almost predictable and pragmatic responses, they do seem to have a plan and are following it.

 

The danger for Iran is over reach which could spell their doom, but so far, considering what they have endured, they have have been steady in their policies. Then while support in the US is weak for this war. it may be expected some sort of false flag attack by US players or Israel in the hope to gain support for the ultimate destruction of Iran. The immediate labeling of the migrant attack in Spain, by the majority of observers, blaming Israel and the US for punishing Spain for not being co combatants in this war may put a real damper on any attempts for such an attack.

 

At present there seems to be desperation in Washington, Tel Aviv and the Gulf countries, but time is running out, this situation needs to have some sort of conclusion soon, or the economic crisis emerging will possibly be more dangerous than this war.

 

 

 

 

 

Will debt and bond market soon take center stage?

 JAPAN BOND MARKET MAY BE FIRST TO GO

OTHER WESTERN BONDS MAY BE NEXT

 

While the world is focused on the Iran war and oil prices the next serious crisis may be underway in Japan. Japan has the largest debt to GDP in the world, often linked to their financial crisis from 1989 that has never been resolved, just papered over like many countries in the west. Japan is the largest holder of US debt and problems in Japan will cause a need to liquidate other holdings to salvage their bond market.

 

It may be a cascading problem that will affect all bond markets. The 10 year US treasury is now yielding 4.7 % and 30 year 5.25%. Japan holds over $1 trillion of US debt and it may be necessary to liquidate some of that and not buy any more. China has been downsizing its exposure to US debt for some years and now hold near half of what it did some time ago. With massive deficits in the US, and a desire to dramatically increase defense spending, it can only go one way.

 

This will result in servicing the existing debt to become the biggest single expense in the budget which is already over $1 Trillion. This crowds out money for important investments as the past spending begins to cripple economic growth going forward. It has been reported that Metals have replaced Treasury debt as the largest share of foreign reserves. 

 

This coupled with the gulf countries also experiencing almost no income for now over 5 months have liquidated gold and treasury bonds and also are being covered by the US treasury. The US treasury will not be able to intervene in the gulf countries and Japan and manage its own problems that are escalating.

 

Much of the debt in the US can be attributed to 30+ years of foreign military intervention coupled with buying votes with more grants and spending by the Federal government. Whether now is the time it all comes due is not yet clear, but it may very well be the beginning of the end of deficits and unrestrained spending.

 

 

 

 

 

Trump's agonizing dilemma, no win in sight.

 TRUMP BACKS AWAY FROM ESCALATION

AT LEAST FOR NOW

 

Yesterday, Trump at least postponed the anticipated massive attack on Iran.  We can speculate that the phones and messages are burning up Trump's phone as never before, Primarily by those who want this war to continue.

 

Trump's dilemma is, yes the US has the power to destroy Iran as a functioning state, but the consequences are not easily calculated, it is the simple reason that former presidents, all who supported Israel, and all hoped to control the oil assets of Iran, balked at outright war with Iran. Iran who has been under sanctions, war and threats of war by the US ever since 1979, knew that one day they would come to an ultimate test in a confrontation with the US. They understood that a military confrontation with the US would be devastating, but was not willing to go back into being a part of a colonial system as they were under the Shaw. Their dilemma is far more existential than Trump's has been, at least until now. 

 

The former agreement under Obama was considered a step in the right direction to normalize relations with Iran.  It put Iran on the world stage with all the major powers and it was in their  interest to live up to the agreement. Contrary to the narrative, they did live up to the agreement, at least as long as the US continued to do so. When the US, under pressure on Trump, by Netanyahu, pulled out of the agreement, Iran proceeded to enrich Uranium to the 60 % level and informed everyone that they did so. They admitted it was effort to bring about another negotiation of the nuclear issue, but it became a rallying cry for the destruction of Iran. 

 

That negotiation was actually on its way to be successful in Geneva in late February, but one can speculate that US negotiators informed Israel before they informed Trump or Trump had already decided to attack Iran, we may never know. 

 

The attack on February 28 was a viscous and brutal attack that killed off the leadership of Iran in one day, the earlier attack by Israel in June 2025, also killed leaders and scientists and their families. While most deny it, the reality is that Trump refused to go along with that attack and declared victory after the attack on nuclear facilities, it was not what Israel wanted. Israel wanted and still wants Iran to be reduced to a failed state similar to Libya and Syria, leaving Israel one step away form being the dominate power in the region.

 

While Israel wants Iran destroyed as a nation, the neocolonialists and neocons in the government have convinced Trump that the US can preserve its hope of world domination by controlling the oil resources of the world. 

 

There is lots of evidence to back up this claim, it began when the DOGE savings, that were hoped to right the financial problems in the country, were immediately transferred to the military, the renaming the defense department to the Department of War.  The emphasis on Panama and Venezuela and Greenland. No audit of the defense department and the expectation to increase military spending to $1.5 trillion. The increasing of sanctions on any country that did not submit to US demands. The eventual capture of all oil revenue of Venezuela, and the hope of controlling all Mideast oil facilitated by gaining control of Iran's oil to be followed by the oil of the whole Gulf. A hope to control the world by controlling the oil resources as a lever.

 

So far it has not been quite that easy, there has been resistance and Iran is being backed up by Russia and China, understanding that Iran's geographical position and their oil resources are important to building an alternative economic system independent of western control. That is were we stand today. 

 

The US and Israel can destroy Iran, but Iran has credibility demonstrated that they can take down the world economy, as they are destroyed. They understand that they are under a existential threat to their survival and need to never submit to the inevitable destruction of their country. The hope of an internal collapse is evidentially non existent, Israel is focused on Iranian destruction and the neocons believe that if Iran prevails their hope of world domination is coming to an end. There may not be any winners in a further attempt to destroy Iran, but can the leadership in the US be content to be part of the world economy without being in control of it.

 

It appears that Trump has rejected the advice of the U.S. intelligence in predicting the risks of war with Iran, there is lots of evidence he has relied on intelligence from Israel and Mossad, which may be biased.  The resignations of Gabbard and Kent indicate this is true. The killing of Khomeini and the school girls was making sure that Iran would not easily submit but fight until they are destroyed.  

 

I do not believe that US has the manufacturing base or a sound economic base and currency to pull off this effort to control the globe and is further weakening its credibility and financial hopes for the future by  increasing debt and destroying good will. Resources sorely needed to restore the US financial systsem and manufacturing base are being squandered in its quest to preserve its control by economic and military threats. The US and the world is at a pivotal moment in history, with a the possibility of a positive outcome declining by the day.

 

 

 

 

 

Day 154, 5 months, no end in sight?

 WHO WILL RUN OUT OF BOMBS FIRST?

WILL THE US BE FORCED OUT OF THE GULF?

 

The reality is that the US is being forced further to the west with each passing day. It now seems that the US is predominantly based in Jordan and Israel, that is 1035 miles from border to border. Of course, we still have our carrier forces, they are hundreds of miles in the other direction, that is all just to get to the borders of Iran.  The logistics of this war is a challenge in itself, a remarkable task, and very expensive.

 

While an air war has difficult logistics, a ground war is overwhelming,  that is why a war with Iran has been avoided by all previous US administrations. Today, I suspect that although Iran has suffered immense damage, they are still standing and it now appear that they will continue to stand for the foreseeable future. From the beginning many considered just survival for Iran to be counted as a victory. 

 

Now, it may be that they will actually get more than survival, as the clock is running down on the availability of precision weapons, on the risk to the global economy and even control of the strait of Hormuz. The strait was open before this war, and the strait will again be open, if Iran is ceded that control. I suspect that shippers and the international community will accept that control, but it will be a devastating loss to the US if it cannot gain control of strait.  

 

Again, this war could have been avoided, just like the Ukraine war, in fact the negotiations in Geneva had come to an agreement that could have been a victory for Trump, but it was scuttled by the February 28 attack. It now appears there will not be any negotiations, and Iran will retain control of the strait, unless the US wants to hasten its own demise by engaging in an all out war, possibly nuclear, to defeat Iran. A tactical victory, but ultimately a strategic defeat.

 

While many warn of another forever war, this will not likely be the case, it will conclude soon, or at least be a long pause until a new plan for winning can be entertained, an unlikely event. 

 

 

 

Is Trump ready to bet the house on Iran?

 TRUMP'S LAST CHANCE IS SLIPPING AWAY

BIBI LEFT SMILING, A BAD SIGN 

 

It appears as though Trump has made his decision, only a few more days for us to know for sure, but it appears we may be in for escalation in Iran and a determination to destroy the Iranian nation.  We do have that ability, but at what cost to the US and world economy. The 30 year is now at 5.24% and the 10 year 4.76% a disaster for servicing the exploding national debt. This is just an indication of where we are going, a prolonged war and even possible ground troops, will make these numbers look moderate.

 

One has to wonder if Iran's attack yesterday was a premeditated effort to suck Trump into a prolonged war, possibly a far bigger weapon in the long run than even the strait of Hormuz. I suspect that this attack was intentionally timed to coincide with Bibi's visit to Washington. It seems to have provoked the desired reaction from Trump. An outrageous sneak attack on a US base!, is almost humorous, after the US and Israelis attacks on the clergy, leadership and even school girls in Iran. The hypocrisy is just so over the top.

 

While the present wars continue, it is relevant that Russia has been very restrained in their approach to Ukraine, at least until the recent escalation, that it is still very controlled and strategic. The same has been the policy of Iran, only responding to escalation from the US,  this last attack on our Jordanian bases is the first exception to that policy. It was almost a cry for the US to not stop, please continue the war. 

 

We can assume that the adversaries of the US, have a clear objective view of the power of the US. and have determined that the best policy is not disrupt their rush to decline by expending their wealth and energy until it is no longer able to sustain the costs, both economically and militarily.  So far, due to hubris of US leadership, they are cooperating according to plan.

 

One other observation that causes interest is the continual accusations against Russian targeting information to Iran. Most assume this information is coming from China, which is experimenting with many of their untested electronics in Iran.  Of course, the US knows this, but seems to want to blame Russia rather than China, not clear why this is the present policy.  

 

Some are predicting a mass casualty event to US forces that will hopefully encourage an escalation of the war. We can assume Israel still wants escalation, hoping the US will knock off this domino of prospective threats on their delusional dream of world power status. The possible result may very well be the diminishing of what is left of US power and credibility, and the end of their only hope for survival.

 

 

 

 

Bibi wants escalation, not victory declaration.

 MILITARY DIVIDED ON IRAN WAR

WILL TRUMP SACRIFICE MIDTERMS FOR ISRAEL?

 

The logical strategy would be to declare victory and go home, but we will soon know if logic or Netanyahu will prevail in regards to the Iran war. Word is that Netanyahu and his backers lobbied hard for a renewed intensified conflict in the hope to destroy Iran for good. We can expect to see within days which way Trump will go.

 

It appears the U.S. military is divided, with some concerned that the dwindling supply of precision weapons and defensive missiles may put the U.S. service members in increased risk. 

 

So far, this war has been under the control of Trump, concerning  when it starts and when it stops. One has to wonder if the US is lulled into the belief that it can continue to do that. Last night may be a preview from Iran as they attacked the US bases in Jordon without it being a retaliation to US attacks. 

 

Any escalated attack on Iran that requires US planes to overfly Iran will result in lost planes and pilots, a very politically negative result for the president. This week may be the pivotal time for the direction of not only this war, but for the future of the Trump presidency and the US standing in the world. All objective analysis believes that escalation is a long shot gamble at best. Netanyahu may be desperate, and after a further escalation, so will Trump.

 

 

 

Bibi is really coming this time.

 WILL IT BE ESCALATION OR DECLARATION OF VICTORY?

OR JUST A PAUSE UNTIL AFTER THE ELECTIONS?

 

Netanyahu is really coming to Washington today, I had mistakenly reported a few weeks ago that he was coming, but his time it is for real. In previous visits, this will be the eight this year, it seems to be always about war, particularly with Iran, this time may be different. Trump may actually be forcing Netanyahu to praise the Trump efforts and possibly publicly allow Trump to declare victory. Trump may need that endorsement to allow him to focus on the midterms, then no matter how the midterms go, it will be back to war.

 

Netanyahu is also invited to the funeral of blood brother in death and destruction, Lindsey Graham. I am sure his support will be sorely missed. 

 

It may be a perfect time for pause in the war, no deal, no formal settlement, just a pause until the U.S. and Israel can restock munitions and hope to fight another time after the elections.  One has to wonder if Iran will be accommodating, it seems they have again stopped attacks, after the U.S. stopped attacks. They may very well hope that, after the midterms, the U.S. will have other distractions to keep them from resuming the war.

 

Zelensky is also coming, a real meeting of the blood brothers and also a big fan of Lindsey Graham. Graham and his buddy John McCain had been proponents of war with Russia for decades, now they are both gone, before they could witness their dream. 

 

Who knows what will be discussed and planned in private, but it could be that this meeting will all be about victory and praise for Trump. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Is everyone near exhaustion?

 CITIZENS MAY TIRE OF WAR BEFORE LEADERS

MAYBE ITS TIME TO JUST STOP 

 

While we hear of possible escalation and now a growing possibility that Iran may actually go on the offensive, I for one, am tired of watching continuous war both in Ukraine and in the middle east. Both wars were never necessary, but here we are anyway.  Yet it seems we are destined to continue until the last missile or last fake dollar, to keep it all going. 

 

Off ramps were available both before the Ukraine war even started and then in Istanbul and then for Iran in Geneva in February for avoiding these wars, but leaders and their backers thought that more war was a good idea.  We have to win and someone has to lose. I suspect that there will not be any winners, they are all going to be losers. Particularly all those who are being effected by this lust for war and power.

 

It now appears that there will not be any negotiated settlement with Russia or Iran, both have been taught well that negotiations with the United States are just a ploy to gain advantage and the only course is war to the bitter end. 

 

Contrary to media narrative, Russia is moving west and accelerating even while Ukraine damages Russia's oil production, a damage that will be felt and paid for by everyone.  Russia is not going to quit and will not fold internally, Ukraine will most likely lose Odessa and Karkiv before this is over and it will probably not be over until Ukraine can no longer physically resist. 

 

As for Iran, there are indications that they may soon stop with the policy of retaliation and actually go on the offensive, the first victims will be the British creations of Kuwait and Bahrain, they were never real countries, just creations to gain access to the oil. They may soon revert back to part of Iraq and Iran.  The UAE may be awaiting the same fate. 

 

To stop a ground advance from Iran will require many thousands of western troops on the ground, that will promise to be costly to everyone, it may be too late to stop an escalation that could have avoided all this with some real diplomacy.  

 

The next five months of 2026, will most likely witness the results of many years of planned war, I suspect it will cost the globe dearly. The 30 minute meeting between Rubio and Lavrov is an indication that all talking is now over, the high hopes of Trump negotiating peace is over and will not even be entertained.  All our adversaries have been taught well that there really is no real negotiation, only a tactic to gain advantage. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Escalation frustration, Casino mentality.

 WILL DOUBLING THE BOMBS MAKE A DIFFERENCE?

ANOTHER ROLL OF THE DICE?

 

As we watch the modern day Shakespearean tragedy of the Trump presidency one has to wonder how far this will go before someone decides this is a losing battle and a new approach is necessary. A bigger hammer is not always a better idea, but it is often how much more damage is done until a real solution is found. We can only watch in awe as Trump is consumed by his own hubris and fear of admitting defeat. If it was only Trumps ego at stake it could be almost humorous, but the reality is the whole country and even the global economy is at risk. It seems this whole play has to come to a final conclusion, no matter how damaging.

 

I expected a conclusion of the Ukraine war in 2025, now half way through 2026 it is still escalating, will this be the same situation In Iran, will we still be watching this fiasco in 2027 ?  

 

If I was a betting man I would no longer bet on any date, but I would be willing to bet on who will be still standing when all this is over. The worst thing for the world would be an imminent Russian defeat, as that would not bring about a collapse of its government but an end to civilization in Europe. The Iran war is a similar situation in that Iran needs to retain control of the strait of Hormuz, no matter the cost, as losing that control would be its demise. Hoping that the population will soon overthrow their government and lead to a government that now loves the U.S. and Israel is a very dangerous delusion. They like the Russians understand that their country and their future is at stake.  

 

No matter how hard the powers at be try to convince the west that their future is at risk by Russia's and Iran's existence, it is a weak argument, that is becoming a hard sell. It will be an exercise in Human gullibility to see how long a self induced economic downturn and the massive shortages of food and energy can be blamed on the Iranians and the Russians.

 

While not a rational response, history has proved that whole populations do fall for this type of bullshit repeatedly through human history, with the accompanying devastating results. 

 

 

 

Day 145, More money for perpetual war.

 COSTS AND CASUALTIES LIKELY UNDERESTIMATED

U.S. CREDIBILITY NO LONGER EXISTS

 

Senate hearings have revealed that this administration has no credibility concerning  their assessment of the Iran war. Their statements about every aspect have exaggerated or suppressed the truth from the very beginning.   It all began with the reasons for this war, it is clear it was orchestrated by Israel and we went along. Of course, it was all about weapons of mass destruction,  the usual fall back when you want to go to war. Then the assurances of a weeks long conflict, that is now approaching 6 months. Now we hear a cost of  $37 billion, with a massing of troops and equipment for over 1 year and the destruction of decades of buildings and assets destroyed, another gross underestimate.

 

Now the plea is for another $87 billion, judging from the estimate to date, that should last another 2 years. Then there is need for another $500 billion added to the $1 Trillion defense budget, they must be planning for a lot of war in the future.

 

There is no clear objective, no transparent plan, it is now obvious the plan is the Netanyahu plan for the total destruction of Iran. That will be followed with the plan for destruction of  Turkey, then Egypt, maybe it they will need another $500 billion. The Senate should stop talking to the middlemen and bring in Netanyahu and ask the questions directly. 

 

If this war keeps going it is likely to lead to  an all out regional war that will destroy the global economy, the U.S. economy and finally end the status of the United States as a world power. Ironic, that attempting to sustain world power at all costs will lead to its inevitable end.

 

While the Senators all made interesting points and video clips, they will give them the added money, they will incorporate Israels military into the U.S. military budget. Don't expect anything to change, we are on a road to destruction with no exit. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Beginning of great battle underway in Ukraine.

 PIVOTAL BATTLE FOR UKRAINE'S DEFENSE BELT

LAST FORTIFIED AREA OF THE DONETSK

 

While most of the world is focused on the Iran conflict, a pivotal battle is shaping up for  control of the Donetsk  region in Ukraine.  This area labeled "the defense belt "is comprised of 3 cities, Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Kostianlynivka, west of this 50 km belt is little resistance or postulation to slow the Russian advance.

 

It is expected that this battle, already underway in the approaches, will last for months and may result in over 100,000 casualties.  It is the last major defensive position for the Ukrainians in this region, it has been fortified for now 11 years. 

 

This battle is reminiscent of other such battles since 2022, Mariupol,  Bakhmut,  Avdiivka, and Pokrovsk,  all claiming tens o thousands of causalities. It would likely end the battle for the Donetsk oblast. One of the four incorporated by Russia.  

 

This would then leave the Zaporizhahia, and Kherson area to the south, both already under heavy assault.  

 

Ukraine's policy has usually been to not retreat and fight until most are either killed or surrender, we can expect this will be a more intense situation as it will be a huge loss in military men, equipment and morale. 

 

There seems to be some conflict in Ukraine about how to deal with this situation and may have led to the ouster of their military commander. 

 

While Ukraine has inflicted serious damage on Russian infrastructure with long range drones ,the ground war has been a slow and steady move to the west. Many believe the drone war was a last ditch attempt to have some sort of negotiation, but negotiation seems to no longer be a viable alternative. The next possible attempt at negotiation may be after Russia has solidified its hold on the four oblasts incorporated into Russia. 

 

This war can be expected to last into 2027 and result in many more thousands of deaths.  

 

 

 

So far, the U.S. has enjoyed escalation dominance.

 WILL IRAN ATTEMPT TO END THAT DOMINANCE?

CAN THE U.S. CONTROL THIS CONFLICT? 

 

In reality, this Iran conflict has now been going on for over 1 year, while it has had pauses,  Israel and the U.S. has had the ability to start and pause this conflict at will. First the June 2025 attack by Israel that decimated Iran's scientists and leadership, then Trumps attack on their nuclear sites, followed by a declared victory and end, mostly because Israel was being badly damaged by Iran's missile attacks. Many believed that was not the end of it, and they were right,  the war was resumed in February 2026 and only when the threat of an oil crisis and a waning ability to keep up, was a ceasefire called for by Trump.  Then the MOU, which many never believed the U.S. would ever agree to, and now we are back to war.  The U.S. and Israel has enjoyed what is called "Escalation Dominance" in that they have been able to escalate, then pause whenever they chose. Iran has been accommodating every time, agreeing to pause whenever necessary.

 

We continue to hear threats of escalation from Trump and Iran has continued to retaliate only to those escalations. It has been very predictable., at least until now. While we hear threats of a ground invasion by Trump, no one has considered a ground invasion of Kuwait and Bahrain by Iran. Both countries, with large Shia populations would not be able to defend against such an invasion and even the UAE, country of elites with foreign workers could only survive with the aid of the U.S. A ground war that would now be mandated, not a war of the choice.

 

While Iran would also suffer greatly, it would be the end of the oil diplomacy and the end of escalation dominance it would now be a war requiring real casualties and real losses, on both sides. It would immediately set off a global energy crisis and a global economic crisis, plus political damage in much of the world.

 

We can only hope that does not happen, that some wisdom will prevail and this game playing with the world security will be ended and ended soon.

 

 

  

War escalates, Will Navy be next target?

 WILL TRUMP SOON DECLARE VICTORY?

RUMORS ARE THAT IT IS TIME TO COME HOME

 

While the war with Iran seems to be intensifying and somehow Israel, who wanted this war for decades is missing in action, speculation is that Trump will soon declare victory and claim all objectives have been achieved and now it it up to the gulf nations and those who need oil from the gulf to maintain that victory. 

 

Trump can claim that their nuclear program is destroyed, its Navy and air force obliterated and that Iran will need decades to recover from this war. It is now only six weeks to the start of intense domestic political campaigns and only weeks left before oil becomes a crisis. It is the most logical avenue for Trump to detach from this war, without taking major losses both militarily and politically.

 

Iran's missile capability is proving to be very accurate and sustainable, while Iran is taking punishment, any hope of surrender is unlikely. Many are now speculating that Trump will end this in as little as 2 more weeks. 

 

While it will be a victory for Iran in that it has survived, it will not be a victory documented with a deal that is an obvious defeat for the U.S. It can then be claimed by weeks of media narrative that Trump has won and that Iran is no longer a threat to world peace. It may the best result that is obtainable.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Negotiations dead everywhere.

 WARS INTENSIFY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE

NEGOTIATIONS JUST PLOY TO GAIN ADVANTAGE 

 

It is doubtful that Iran will reenter any negotiations with the U.S., it is all now attacks by the U.S. and retaliation by Iran.  There has been much discussion abut Kushner and Witkoff, not ever seriously engaging in negotiations,  Iran claims it has documented proof that both were more interested in using negotiations and revelations about the negotiations to profit in market trading. No one doubts that Trump's messaging has allowed many to make enormous profits by the markets reactions to his messaging.

 

Same can apply to the Russia Ukraine war, most attempts at negotiations were a ploy to get a ceasefire to allow Ukraine to rearm and reposition.  There is now no indication that Russia will resume any quest for a negotiated settlement. While the U.S. narrative is that Ukraine is making strides, it is all just a narrative, while Ukraine has been able to strike Russia's oil business and ships in the Azov, on the ground, were wars are won or lost,  Russia is now focusing on the last remaining fortified strongholds in Ukraine. They upped their intensity and are increasing their moves to the west. They have still refrained from destroying Ukraine's bridges over the Dnieper, which would make their logistic support very difficult.  

 

On Iran it seems that everyone wants to deny that Iran has the military capability to  destroy the oil infrastructure of the gulf and to even make most of those countries uninhabitable by destroying their desalination plants. While Iran makes it clear they would rather not do that, it seems everyone in the U.S. establishment wants to see if they will do it, I guess we will soon find out. So far, Iran has had a policy of retaliating against U.S. attacks, rather than go all out in an aggressive offensive policy. If they do, we can then expect a call for a ceasefire and negotiations from the U.S. 

 

It appears that these wars will continue until someone can no longer resist and it's still not clear who that will be.  Neither war is an existential threat to the U.S. but it is such a situation for Iran and Russia, they will not be submitting any time soon. 

 

 

 

 

 

Wanted, Fighters willing to die in Iran.

 TRUMP SAYS OTHERS WILL MAN GROUND WAR

CURRENT BOMBING IS PREP FOR GROUND ACTION 

 

Indications are the U.S. is planning some type of ground action in Iran, probably some  action to take physical control of the strait of Hormuz. While most military analysts claim this is a long shot for success, it may be a desperate hope for a victory. Trump has stated that some other force rather than U.S. forces will do the ground operation. 

 

The Kurd's who were propositioned early on, have so far, said no.  Trump also indicated that the Syrian ISIS may take over for Israel in Lebanon, we will have to see if that is going to happen. Are they really that much in love with Israel to die in Lebanon? Will the gulf countries come up with a force to go into Iran, so far the gulf countries have put their hopes on the U.S. not the other way around.

 

Of course, the biggest most modern and well equipped ground army in the region is Turkey. Recently Trump promised then f-35's and maybe other incentives, but it could be difficult for even Erdogan to convince his military to go to war on behalf of the U.S. and Israel,  after all, Turkey needs to be preparing for Israel's proposed war on Turkey.

 

I do not see any European coalition of the willing to take on Iran, while they are still focused on war with Russia. 

 

It is reported that the U.S. has 50,000 troops in the region, a force large enough to enter Iran, but most likely not enough to prevail for any length of time. 

 

Then of course there is Israel, Netanyahu has claimed a ground action is necessary, is Israel ready to send 200 or 300,000 troops across Iraq to enter Iran. We can assume they can and will  since they consider Iran an existential risk for them. 

 

In the 1991 war with Iraq, it took the U.S. 6 months to position 600,000 troops and provisions in Saudi Arabia to invade a flat desert country 1/4 the size of Iran. Any attempt to mass such a force would be under attack on day 1 of even bringing the necessary troops and provisions. We can assume that any attack would need to be amassed in Israel and Jordan and  travel 1000 miles before reaching the border. Longer than traveling across Ukraine to get to Russia. 

 

The analysts are most likely correct a ground war with Iran is a bad idea, It has been a bad idea for 4 decades and it may be even a worse idea today. 

 

We need to hope that Trump is bluffing, for the lives of our soldiers, his best hope is to declare victory and go home. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MOU now officially void.

 ONLY CHOICES, ESCALATION OR GO HOME

UNLIKELY THAT SHIPS WILL BE GOING THROUGH STRAIT 

 

The now irrelevant MOU was the last chance for peaceful resolution of the Iran conflict. What come next will not open traffic through the strait, we can now expect an extended spreading economic crisis for the foreseeable future. 

 

The only choices left is escalating military action or just plain exiting the gulf and going home. It is most likely that due to internal and external pressure, Trump will escalate even possibly attempt to take control of the strait with ground troops. Iran may very well not resist a landing of ground troops, but what comes after that will be a prolonged extended catastrophe with many causalities and still no one is going to send ships through the strait.

 

Ship owners, insurance companies and merchant mariners will  not risk their assets and lives for political jousting over control of the strait. As long as hostilities continue, the strait will be closed. 

 

Negotiations have proved to be unreliable with negotiators killed, immediate back tracking and it is unlikely that any attempt at negotiation will be coming.

 

Actually the choices now are far simpler, there are only 2, both very unpleasant, but do not require a lot of real diplomacy or thought. It seems there was a real lack of any of that anyway.

 

This decision does not have the luxury of time, the clock is running out,  we can expect a decision within just few weeks at most.

 

 

 

 

 

More desperate moves, Trump trapped.

 DOUBLING DOWN, RISKING CATASTROPHE

NETANYAHU KNEW HIS MAN 

 

Yesterday, Trump announced he was going to be the guardian of the strait of Hormuz for a slight fee of 20 % of  the value of all goods passing through the strait. His plan now makes Iran's plan a real bargain in comparison. Most question if it is possible for the U.S. to actually take control of the strait, we could speculate, if that was possible, it would have been attempted before now, rather than a last minute gamble.

 

While it is claimed that the Iranians broke the MOU, it can be pointed out that the first issue with the MOU, considered a strong sign of good faith by the U.S. was the repaying of 1/2 of Iran's frozen assets. It never happened, the U.S. tried to repay it, by issuing a credit that they could buy goods from the U.S. particularity agriculture products. Iran wanted real money not a credit. It is clear that the U.S. never wanted to honor the terms of the MOU,  hoping it could renegotiate by stalling, changing the terms and restore oil inventories while the strait was open. It seems that is all history, at least for now. 

 

The reality is that Iran had agreed to most of the things that the U.S. wanted in Geneva in February, immediately before this war started. Now, Iran is  no longer trusting anything that is proposed by the U.S. This situation is similar to the deal reached in Turkey in April 2023 that would have preserved the borders of Ukraine and allowed Ukraine to be prosperous independent country, It would have had to be a militarily neutral country.i It was squashed by the UK and the U.S. in the same way that Netanyahu squashed the hope of any resolution with Iran. It appears that Israel was informed of the possible deal and made sure that it was impossible to have a real deal in the future. 

 

It is no secret that every time Netanyahu came to Washington he had folders of targets in Iran, It can be assumed that Israel knew that killing the Ayatollah and the leadership of Iran and the school girls would become a tactic that the Iranians could never forget. It would cause a war with Iran and the United States, a war that Trump would have a hard time not being a winner and Iran would have lost all faith in any negotiations with the U.S.  Yes, Trump pulled the trigger and now he is hog tied like a rodeo steer, unable to  overcome his hubris and possibly fearing retribution from Israel if he backs down. 

 

While this war between the U.S and Iran escalates, we no longer hear from Netanyahu or Israel even participating in the war. Remarkable accomplishment to bring about a war between the U.S. and Iran in the hope that the U.S. will destroy Iran.  

 

Anyway, it appears Trump is desperate for a win, and may sacrifice his presidency and the position of the U.S. going forward, rather than cut his losses and go home and resume rebuilding the U.S. for the future. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

War back on, Are more bombs the answer?

 CAN IRAN OUTLAST OILS AVAILABILITY?

STRAIT CLOSED AGAIN 

 

At least for now, the Iran war is back on, so far, Trump has been able to stop the war by agreeing to Iran's terms, or a ceasefire.  One has to wonder what happens if Iran decides not to stop on Trump's cue in the future? What is clear is that Iran still has enough capability to damage U.S. bases and the ability to damage Gulf infrastructure, if it desires. Any escalation that includes long term damage to oil producing infrastructure will bring about global economic chaos. 

 

There is much speculation that the price of oil has been manipulated, either by government action or collaboration of financial sector or a cooperation by both. It is estimated that 1.5 billion barrels of oil have been taken out of the oil market, yet the price is within single digits of the pre war price. People who understand the logistics of the oil markets believe there has been massive short selling to cause this to happen. Eventually this will become unsustainable, particularly if oil flows are not resumed and resumed very soon.

 

Many are warning that the global reserves, including the United States, are within weeks of being depleted. When that actually happens it will be a matter of availability, not only price. One has to wonder if this latest resumption of hostilities is a last ditch effort to force Iran to give up control of the strait of Hormuz. Iran understands, that without this leverage, they will be vulnerable to long term economic coercion. Iran needs to stake its existence on retaining control over the strait, it is that simple. Trump needs to have the strait open to avoid global economic catastrophe and it needs to happen very soon. 

 

Military action by either the use of nuclear weapons or a massive ground action, may not result in an increase in oil flow, but the end of oil flowing for the foreseeable future. More military action is a huge gamble. The alternative is to  give up control of the strait to Iran and Oman, which will change the political reality of the whole region, but will allow the continuation of the economic health of the globe.  It is massive change to world political order with either outcome, the consequences of a poorly thought out war.

 

 

 

21st. century, war with no end in sight.

 TRUMP TRAPPED IN IRAN, MORE ENDLESS WAR

WEST SELF DESTRUCTS IN QUEST FOR  SUPREMACY 

 

It is becoming clear that Trump can not exit the latest Mideast war, just as his predecessors. The U.S. has had large numbers of assets in the region for more than a year and has been engaging in hostilities for over 4 months.  While there are a series of ceasefires and breaks, mostly to regroup and build up limited munitions, this war can now be expected to go on for the rest of Trump's presidency. Trump's domestic agenda is dead and it is now clear his enemies have prevailed. 

 

Trump has no choice but to stay and continue this war or go home, it is that simple. Either choice is viewed as a loss for the U.S. and for Trump personally. This is now Trump's war, in fact, Israel is content to keep killing in Lebanon, Gaza and the west bank, while Trump and the U.S. flounder around in Iran. A remarkable end to Trump's hope to "Make America Great Again" 

 

The same is happening in Ukraine, a U.S. project from the start, now a 4 year conflict, sapping the resources of all of western Europe and Russia and devastating Ukraine, with no end in sight. Europe bloviating about war with Russia in 2030, attempting to build a military to fight that war.  Maybe Russia will eventually believe them and decide, why wait until they actually build such an army and get it over with now? Incredibly they are encouraging German rearmament and encouraging transitioning their dying auto factories to transition to building weapons. Are they hoping they can have a redo of WW2 between Russia and Germany, they better be careful, who knows who a rearmed Germany would view as its biggest enemy.

 

In the U.S. we hear plans of transitioning auto plants for more war production. Do they now believe only massive war can save the economy? All these new armies both in Europe and the U.S. will need lots of warm willing  bodies. They may be harder to come by than more weapons, unless the world economy crashes and the military is the employer of last resort. 

 

While we hear of record numbers on wall street, mostly due to AI speculation, the real world lives on food and energy, both now expected to become far more scarce as war both in Russia and the gulf will cause diminished supplies. It now seems almost impossible to dodge that combined speeding bullet. 

 

One has to objectively ask, was Russia a real threat to the existence of Europe and U.S. and the same can be asked about Iran?  I suspect the biggest threat to both is the lust for  world domination that is likely to accomplish what neither Russia or Iran could.

 

 

 

Time to end ethanol in gas not increase it.

 TRUMP TO PUSH INCREASE IN ETHANOL IN GAS

DAMAGE TO ENGINES OFFSETS ANY SAVINGS 

 

It is being reported that both Trump and congress are going to push to increase ethanol in gas to 15%. They claim that it will reduce the cost of fuel, but I find that unbelievable. It  doesn't make sense that producing corn, fermenting it and then distilling it is cost effective for a fuel additive. An additive that makes small engine maintenance a costly necessity. It will also increase problems for all vehicles especially if not driven daily.

 

The reality is American farmers have now become addicted to ethanol subsidies and politicians view ethanol as a vote getter. It raises the cost of food and also increase maintenance cost to vehicles. 

 

I at one time was constantly disassembling the carburetors on all my small engines for cleaning, I have since switched to ethanol free fuel, at higher cost, and have not had any problems for years. If ethanol fuel is left in carburetors for an extended time they actually can destroy the carburetor.

 

While my vehicles seem to run OK, I have to wonder what the long term effects will be on those engines and fuel systems, especially when I do not drive every day. Raising the percent to 15 % is an obvious political ploy to gain votes, it has no redeeming value to vehicle owners or anyone who runs gas engines.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trump says done with MOU, but!

 U.S. RETALIATES FOR IRANIAN ATTACKS IN STRAIT

NEGOTIATIONS WILL CONTINUE 

 

During a press conference with the NATO head, Trump stated he was done with MOU with Iran and continued to label the Iranians as untrustworthy, despicable and that he doesn't like them. While all that may be true, we can expect negotiations to continue and that an all out breakout of war is unlikely.  In fact, the strikes on ships is a form of negotiation by Iran in making it clear that they do not expect to give up control of the strait of Hormuz. 

 

Rutte, the head of NATO praised Trump in a slavish manner in any way he could, hoping to gain support for the war in Ukraine, while Trump kept bringing up Greenland, desiring NATO support for its acquisition. Maybe Trump would support a trade of U.S. support in Ukraine for Greenland? 

 

Trump dismissed Netanyahu's desire that Trump not supply weapons to Turkey, now on Israels list of possible targets in the future. 

 

Everyone wants U.S. military support for their ambitions, support that is now stretched way beyond its real capabilities, both financially and materially.

 

While many still want a rekindled war with Iran it is increasingly unlikely as oil reserves globally continue to decline and Iran is unified in its position as never before. A return to all out war would lead to global economic crisis and also a possible negative military  result. It may just fester on as is for the foreseeable future. 

 

While the Ukraine war continues, it is unlikely that support for this war is without limits, even for the European NATO members.  We can expect no conclusions to be made anywhere for the rest of the summer.

 

 

 

 

Big questions about Charlie Kirk trial.

 FAMILY SAVED SUSPECTS LIFE

BULLET, RIFLE AND SUPPOSED CONFESSION 

 

The trial for the alleged killer of Charlie Kirk is now about to begin. While details about the evidence are being suppressed, as is the often the case, what is known raises a lot of questions. 

 

First the video that is supposed to show the shooter exit the the top of the building and is supposed to show a rifle, does not such thing, there is no rifle that is visible. We are also told that the rifle was disassembled and brought to the scene inside the pants of the suspect. This is a Mauser 98 with a scope mounted, very unlikely, especially for a thin person in jeans and shirt.

 

Then the bullet supposedly fired from a 30-06 at less than 150 yards.  The big question is not the shot, a relatively easy shot from a rested position, but the bullet failed to exit, almost an impossibility, unless it it some kind of special projectile. Slow motion video of a soft ball bulge on impact but a failure to exit is incomprehensible from any normal store bought ammunition for a 30-36. I have observed 100's of deer shot with everything from  6mm to large weapons and it is unlikely that any round from a 30-06 would not exit were Kirk was shot. In fact, videos of the entrance wound appear a lot large than .308 diameter more like 45 or larger. We are already hearing about strong bones and bullets do things that are not calculable, in fact, that is just the opposite, bullets of certain weight and density do very predictable things. Supposedly the empty case was still in the rifle along with other unfired rounds,  they can be compared.

 

We never heard about the diversions by several people in the audience during the shooting even claiming that they had shot Kirk.

 

Then there is the supposed emailed confession that seems to be very vague and its source is questionable.

 

We can speculate that his suspects family, by convincing him to turn himself in, have saved his life, at least to have a trial. It seems the suspect has not spoken or answered any questions, we can assume we will get to hear the other side of this story. It will be interesting to hear the explanations for these questions. 

 

If anyone in this jury has any serious experience with firearms  it is very possible to not get a guilty verdict in this trial. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Russia accelerates in Ukraine.

 RUSSIA ADVANCING ON ALL FRONTS

NATO MONEY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH 

 

It is clear that the Russia has stepped up its pressure in Ukraine. It started with massive aerial  attacks in most of eastern Ukraine, has put out of commission most of the gas stations, cut off energy supplies to Karkiv and is advancing at a quickening pace in every area of conflict. It is becoming clear that the internal pressure on Putin to get this conflict over with is having an effect.

 

While Ukraine continues to offer strong resistance, without some sort of game changing situation it now looks like it's days are numbered , even though this could go on for many more months. 

 

We can expect that this week's NATO meeting will be dominated by the Ukraine situation, we can expect to see calls for more money and more weapons, but what Ukraine needs is more manpower, it does seem that Ukraine is running out of manpower. One would expect that even mercenary soldiers may be hard to come by at this point.

 

While the EU countries continue to talk about war with Russia and increase spending on weapons, they have little in the way of manpower. We can expect that attempting to raise an army will be politically difficult with the fragile political environment. They also want a commitment from the United States before they attempt any intervention in Ukraine. The U.S. still has troops in the middle east and  a shortage of munitions, so it is doubtful that any real commitment is possible. 

 

It also appears that there are no real negotiations possible, it seems that most of the good will in negotiations in Ukraine have evaporated. it will most likely be some sort surrender that will end this war. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After 250 years, U.S. still best.

 BRAVE WISE MEN CHANGED HISTORY

OVERTURNED THE EXISTING ORDER

 

The men who declared independence from the feudal order of the British Empire started a world wide revolution that attempted to change the existing world order.  That spirit is still necessary as it continues to fight many of the same forces that still exist today. 

 

We have to conclude that the experiment that started those many years ago has been successful, the U.S. is still the best place for individuals to pursue their dreams and use their talents as free individuals.   

 

The constitution and the bill of rights is a remarkable document, that while continually under assault, it is still standing. These documents need the steadfast awareness of the citizens to make sure the spirit is preserved for the next generation.

 

We would do well to remember the admonitions of those brave men to beware of foreign entanglements and alliances that can sap the strength and vitality of the nation.  Those same issues are still with us today. 

 

The philosophy of "vote your pocketbook"  is a great danger to the nation as we have seen the results of massive deficit spending, something that the founders would never had tolerated. 

 

While the nation still stands, it has perils both from outside and inside that only a well informed and active citizenship can insure its continued existence. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Supreme court's final decisions for the term.

 ONE IS REAFFIRMING STATE RIGHTS

ONE RULING ON PRECEDENT

 

The ruling concerning trans male athletes from participating in women's sports was a classic states rights ruling. It certainly was not an issue when the constitution was written and states rights is perfect for covering such matters.  It is probably the best ruling that the court could have agreed upon.

 

The birthright citizenship ruling seems to have been based on many years of precedent even if it is a bad precedent.  The 14th amendment was enacted in 1868 and was the direct result of abuses concerning freed slaves who often were denied citizenship in some states. The amendment ruled that everyone born in the U.S. was automatically a citizen. There was an ambiguous line stating, "subject to the jurisdiction of the U.S" The amendment clearly disqualified children born to foreign diplomats and occupying armies. 

 

In today's world, recognizing anyone born in the country even if here on vacation or illegally is not in the spirit of the original amendment.  This amendment was written way before the era of financial benefits linked to citizenship and is not practiced by any other country in the world. We can assume that court feared the complications of any change that has been practiced for near 200 years. It could have been possible for a  clarifying  ruling that exempted all before the present date from losing their citizenship. 

 

I suspect that this may not be the end of this effort to change birthright citizenship, either by amendment or another attempt with different court. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Is Bibi coming to sell his latest war plan?

 NETANYAHU MAKES 7TH TRIP TO WASHINGTON

IRAN HOLDING FIRM ON DEMANDS 

 

It is being reported that Israel's Netanyahu will be meeting with Trump today at 11 am.  The precedent seems to be that some sort of war usually follows. It is not clear who has called for this meeting, but we can assume it has to do with the Iran conflict. 

 

The United States has now had a large number of forces in the region for over 1 year with no end in sight. We hear from those who want escalation and those who want a negotiated settlement.  The dilemma is that Trump agreed to Iran's framework, but hopes to win a victory at the negotiating table. It seems the agreeing part was just an effort to get the strait open and then negotiate a better deal.  Iran is holding firm, desiring a long term agreement that will avoid renewed war in a few  months. We can assume that Netanyahu is planning war, not any deal. 

 

Trump is in a hard place, Iran has demonstrated that they are willing to resume hostilities if necessary and any escalation on their infrastructure will be followed by damage to Persian  gulf infrastructure that will have dire consequences for the world economy and the U.S. economy. Iran is also demanding Israel withdraw from Lebanon, we can expect that will be on the agenda today.

 

Iran is making it clear that they plan on continuing some sort of control on the transit through the strait. it no longer is a toll, but an environmental fee that will include insurance to cover any damages from spills and other related damage to the waterway. It seems Oman is quietly willing to take part in this joint venture.

 

I suspect most shippers find such a fee a small part of their business, and any guarantee of safe passage will be acceptable.  Of course, we can assume Trump still wants to control the Iranian oil and even the other Persian gulf oil resources. There is little room for compromise by either side and everyday the risk and costs are rising.

 

I doubt that Bibi is bringing any positive solutions with him today. 

 

Update. It seems Netanyhou did not come to the U.S. yesterday, sorry this column was in error.