Message is clear, Nuclear weapons are best deterrence.

 CAN WE NOW SEE MORE NUCLEAR COUNTRIES?

CAN THEY ALL BE RESTRICTED BY MILITARY FORCE?

On January 29, 2002 George Bush 2 made a speech declaring the axis of evil of Iraq, Iran, and North Korea. On March 20, 2003 the U.S. invaded Iraq under the pretext that they sought nuclear weapons. North Korea and Iran then began their quest to become nuclear deterrent countries, with Iran suspending that program because of an edict by the Ayatollah Khomeini in 2003. North Korea became a nuclear power in 2006 and remains the only country not attacked by the U.S. 

While it is true North Korea has limited resources desirable by the United States, any country with resources may now be very well considering their only way of establishing a deterrence is by becoming a nuclear armed country. This would especially apply to Saudi Arabia and Turkey, one with resources and one already being listed by Israel as a possible threat and the keeper of a strategic choke point.

The message being heard by many countries is that their only assurance of real deterrence against some sort of attack is nuclear weapons. It is very likely that more countries are going to entertain the idea that it is in their best interest to go down that road. Large countries in South America have the capacity and skills to accomplish this very quickly, with open threats from its neighbor to the north and the example of Venezuela and Cuba they are probably considering this option.

Saudi Arabia already has a  defense agreement with nuclear armed Pakistan and the money to just purchase these weapons. Does anyone doubt that North Korea would sell weapons to those it found to be safe customers?

Japan swore off nuclear weapons after WW2, but that was a different generation, they may soon decide it is time to join the nuclear club, especially with the increased pressure to choose sides in the pacific region,  same with South Korea.

The technology is now 75 years old and the ability to manufacture these weapons is available to many nations. There is no longer any need for testing, just the ability to copy the plans and tests of some other nuclear country, which is most likely available. 

It may soon become impossible to play whack a mole by military force to stop the proliferation of nuclear weapons. The world political scene now indicates that nuclear weapons are going to be used somewhere in the near future. 

Ukraine conflict heats up.

 MOSCOW INFORMS WEST TO EVACUATE EMBASSIES

BOTH SIDES ESCALATE

In the last few weeks Ukraine has attacked inside Russia in an increasing escalation, Russia responded with massive drone and missile attacks all across Ukraine. A few days ago Ukraine attacked a school dormitory that killed 22 students and injured scores, now it appears Russia is planning a massive attack on Kiev. 

There have been much speculation that Putin is under increasing pressure to bring this conflict to a close by increasing the level of military action, this may now be what is about to happen. 

Ukraine with the assistance of NATO members has used large numbers of NATO supplied drones for most of these attacks, even using NATO airspace for attacks inside Russia. Leaders in Russia are advocating attacking the sources of these drones, which will be an attack on some NATO members, then they will have to decide if they are ready to go to war with Russia.

In the next few days we can expect some unprecedented attacks on the decision centers of Ukraine in Kiev as NATO countries have all been informed to evacuate their personnel from Kiev, what comes next is still not clear.

Zelensky asked Trump for more air defenses but it is doubtful that any more is available.

Russia has lots of weapons to use to escalate and lots of targets to expand the conflict. Does the West have resources and the will to match that escalation?

Day 88, Talk of Peace, just talk, no substance.

 KEEPING MARKETS CALM

NO TALK OF ADDRESSING ROOT CAUSES

We are subjected to the daily narrative that peace is at hand and much progress has been made. In realty, the ceasefire is at the same place it was over 6 weeks ago, still looking for a way to defeat Iran without crashing the global economy. This week we saw U.S. attacks on Iranian boats and infrastructure supposedly in self defense even though the boats were close to the Iran's shore. This and drone and other flynear attempts all seem to be just hoping to locate Iran's air and other defense positions to be targeted in a future attack. There really is no desire for a lasting peace treaty with Iran, Israel wants the country destroyed and Trump wants control of the oil. It is just that simple.

Now we hear Trump proposing that part of the peace deal is for all countries in the region join the Abraham accords and recognize and normalize relations with Israel. What is missing from all this talk of peace is any mention of the Palestinian question and what is still going on in Gaza and the west bank. The very question that started this whole war and the very question that has been ongoing for near 8 decades. Very interesting, that it is never part of any talk about a regional normalization of relations. 

If there really was a hope of a comprehensive change in the political climate in the region, yes all parties should be involved, and that would include some resolution of the Palestinian problem. 

I suspect the focus on an end to the Iran war and the hope of not destroying the global economy is in some way a distraction from any real effort of a lasting solution for peace in the region. It may be time for the international community to lay out the real borders of Judea and also to carve out some place for the Palestinian people, otherwise this will continue for another 8 decades or until it is ended by nuclear war.

Tulsi Gabbard resigns. 3rd resignation at National intelligence agency.

 BEING A FIGUREHEAD IS VERY FRUSTRATING

JOE KENT AND AMARYLLIS FOX KENNEDY LEFT EARLIER

Tulsi Gabbard has resigned from her position as Director of National Intelligence. It was clear from the beginning of this administration that she and U.S. intelligence was mostly sidelined from the decision making process. Early on, she testified that U.S. intelligence was confident that Iran was not in the process of making nuclear weapons and had abandoned that idea in 2003. Up until 2025 the IAEA who had inspectors on the ground backed up that analysis. Iran had publicly disclosed that they had enriched Uranium up to 60% after the U.S. pulled out of the nuclear agreement, mostly in an effort to renegotiate that agreement.

After those statements from Gabbard she was no longer visible in the administration and Trump publicly claimed he had better information, presumably from Israeli Intelligence.

In the last few weeks she also disclosed that she was investigating U.S. funded biological labs in Ukraine and other countries, one must wonder if that was the impetus for pressure for her resignation. We can expect we will never hear of that investigation again. 

Gabbard was sent out to investigate election interference in Georgia, hardly the role of the Director of National  Intelligence.

There have been reports of a raid on her office by the CIA, who she is supposed to oversee, that took records concerning the JFK files and the MKUltra program, a program that was supposedly discontinued concerning mind control with experimental drugs and methods.

Tulsi Gabbard was viewed by many as honest and sincere in her hope of foreign policy reform, we can expect she is an example for others who should entertain such ideas.

Flotilla members abused by Israel while in captivity.

 NATIONAL SECURITY MINISTER PARTICIPATES

ISRAEL DENIES IT IS GOVERNMENT POLICY

On May 19, a flotilla of 41 vessels, called the "Global Sumud Flotilla"  was approached and boarded, by Israel military forces about 167 miles off the the Gaza coast in international waters. 428 of the members were taken captive and taken to israel. This is not the first time and possibly not the last such incident, but what has raised condemnation worldwide is the treatment of the captives members of 40 countries. Videos have emerged that have shocked most of the international community with obvious abuse and humiliation methods used.

The captives, with hands bound, were forced to crawl across the floor, kiss the Israel flag and swear allegiance to Israel.  Some were beaten for resisting with numerous injuries and they were deprived of water for over 30 hours. 

The worst part is that video show Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel's National security Minister. participating in these practices. 

While there has been condemnation inside of Israel, claiming that his is not Israeli policy, I suspect that if any national leader of any country engaged in such practices, he would be immediately be removed from his position. 

No matter what one might think about the flotilla agenda, Israel has again just given their enemies another massive propaganda victory. The U.S. government responded by sanctioning the leaders of the flotilla, without any formal condemnation.

A almost unbelievable series of abuse incidents have been reported, including sexual abuse of prisoners,  without any accountability for those involved. When the National security minister is directly participating in these abuse, it is hard to deny that this not government policy.

Trump likes to play good cop, bad cop.

 TRUMP IS ALL IN ON WAR WITH IRAN

ACCESS TO IRAN OIL DEPENDS ON WINNING

We continually hear that Trump wants a negotiated end to the Iran conflict, this would be true, if Iran would surrender and hand over control of its oil resources. Of course, that would be the easy way, but since that is unlikely, any narrative about Trump seeking every way to avoid war and Bibi Netanyahu pushing for war is just so much theater. They are both all in on resuming this war when it is the deemed appropriate.

The same good cop and bad cop is being played out concerning Ukraine, there is no estrangement with the EU NATO members concerning the Ukraine conflict. When, and if, the oil of the Persian gulf is fully under control of the U.S., the pressure will resume by the U.S. on Russia. 

The goal is to control the world's energy supplies and demand submission and enforce the use of the U.S. dollar in world trade. It is a desperate gamble to maintain the US, and western control of world affairs. While its financial power is waning it is increasingly dependent on military power. The EU countries, in the same boat, are talking about building up their militaries to go to war with Russia by 2030, another desperate gamble.

The West has plans to dramatically increase military spending, even at the expense of domestic infrastructure and other domestic spending. Increasing debt in economies already experiencing massive, unsustainable debt, huge deficits, and a currency declining in buying power by the day. Engaging in wars that cause  the rise in inflation in food and energy to their citizens, all in the hope of being the dominant power in the world, without the sound bases at home for real power. It all appears to be an all or nothing gamble rather than a planned strategy to restore real wealth and political power by example.

Supporting a declining currency by force, rather than sound economic policy is a fools game.  As for the citizens, there will not be any winning, no matter the outcome, they will all pay for the gamble with declining living standards as the best outcome, but the worse outcome will be much more severe.

Sanctions and threats losing effectiveness.

 U.S. POLICY HAS UNITED ITS ADVERSARIES

RESULTS OFTEN COUNTER PRODUCTIVE

The United States now has sanctioned most of Asia with either primary or secondary sanctions. India has been a target, a country that sought neutrality from the global political conflicts, has refused to give up its nation's well being by honoring those sanctions. Sanctions that attempted to cut off Russia's sales of energy to India and raise the cost to India. China has recently forbade its refineries from obeying U.S. sanctions against Iranian and Russian oil. 

While India and China are the biggest countries not obeying sanctions and often costing them with trade with the U.S., they perceive that their countries best interest is to not get involved in these sanction schemes. The one principle for inclusion in the BRICS economic union is not engaging in sanctions on member countries. This represents over 50 % of global trade. 

While countries like Iran, Cuba and Venezuela have been under sanctions for over 50 years the Ukraine war and the attempts to isolate Russia led to sanctions exploding to all over the globe. After 4 years, Russia is still selling oil, even to the EU and Ukraine, while the diminished supply has devastated the economies of Europe. The incentives to buy oil from Russia has increased for India and China and has actually strengthened their relations in other ways.

Sanctions, while damaging those nations it targets, has become increasingly less effective, because nations resist damaging their own economies by enforcing sanctions. 

When santions become ineffective the next step is military action, enforcing embargo's,  capturing ships at sea or damaging nations oil infrastructure, all acts of war. Europe and Russia are now on the brink of war and we can expect either a cessation of these actions or war is inevitable.

While the U.S. has, so far, suffered little by imposing sanctions, we can expect that there are plenty of avenues for even nonmilitary retaliations. One that has been evident in the last few days is the large increase in yields of U.S. debt. This could be by BRICS nations no longer buying U.S. debt plus Gulf countries in need of cash to compensate for their lost oil revenues, caused by the Iran war. The yield on the 10 year is now 4.67% and on the 30 year 5.19% . This will dramatically increase the cost of servicing this debt and will increase the deficit of the U.S. budget. This may only be the first shot in retaliation in the economic warfare that has been underway for years.

Escalation before any peace seems inevitable.

 ESCALATION BOTH IN IRAN AND UKRAINE

GLOBAL ECONOMY GOING DOWN

Today it looks like escalation of the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine is on the menu. While Iran is taking up most of the news the more dangerous escalation is underway in the Ukraine conflict. Ukrainian drones, supplied by NATO countries, are increasingly targeting Russia and particularly Moscow. There are now also drones being launched by some Baltic countries into Russia and Lithuania is encouraging NATO to attack Kaliningrad the Russian territory in the Baltic. 

Pressure is building inside Russia to send a clear signal by some sort of retaliation to NATO, if the Baltic countries continue on their present path they may be the first to experience this message and it will probably be significant. This will bring about a dilemma in NATO, as they will then need to decide if they want to go to war with Russia for real, with the consequences.

There is no hope of any settlement in the Iran war. The U.S. demands essentially translate to disarmament of Iran which would leave them open to Israeli attacks and the inevitable end of their sovereignty. More attacks on Iran will very likely damage the global oil supply for possibly years, as Iran does have the capability to attack the oil infrastructure of the entire region. This would bring about a global economic crisis.

A negotiated settlement capable of ending this will signify a loss by the U.S., while possibly preserving the global economy, it would damage the political power of the U.S.. 

Wile the EU is searching for a possible negotiator to deal with Russia, a difficult undertaking, as it seems there is a dearth of real diplomats available. 

The same goes for the U.S., which seems beholding to numerous factions, all favoring more war, there are no real diplomatic negotiators on the horizon. The present U.S. negotiators have a poor record and now little respect or credibility with their counterparts both in Iran and Russia.

Trump, Xi, meeting, Polite but no substance.

 U.S. ALREADY AT WAR WITH CHINA

U.S. DESIRES DOMINATION RATHER THAN COEXISTENCE

Last week we watched the much anticipated Trump trip to China. As far as we know it was Trump who requested the meeting. Long gone are the heady days of the Trump 1st term when there was much hope of a respectful and mutual cooperation with China. Whether as Trump has indicated, he blamed China for covid, when in fact the covid research in Wuhan was financed by the U.S. government or Trump has bought into the narrative that China's goal is to rule the world, there is little left for serious discussion. The biggest positive result is that there is still any discussion at all.

It is not clear what the goal really was, was the bringing along the big Tech guys a proposed carrot for China and the blockade of the strait of Hormuz a stick, one can only guess. A real meeting with a major power requires months of pre negotiations on an agenda, this seemed to be little more that photo-op that something was going on.

XI made it clear that he opposed increased arms sales to Taiwan, again it seems the hope is to lure China into some sort of military confrontation in Taiwan, much like Ukraine. While Taiwan is big issue with China, Taiwan already does the majority of their business with China and China understands that time is on their side with negotiations with Taiwan. Short of a U.S. backed declaration of Independence by Taiwan, there is unlikely any military action by China. How long can the U.S. financially maintain its enormous cost of bases and military assistance in the Pacific?

Trump claims that XI wants the strait of Hormuz to be open, it is open to Chinese ships by Iran, but blocked by the U.S.

Trump also claims that XI  does not support fees by Iran, but it was not clear if they are willing to pay if necessary.

It is also claimed that China will not sell arms to Iran, but will they give them away for free or trade them for oil? China has great financial and political interest in Iran remaining a sovereign nation. 

I don't recall any promises from Trump.

The reality is that most of the world understands that the U.S. is in a process of attempting to control the world by gaining control of the oil resources around the world. This was stated clearly by Sergei Lavrov of Russia this weekend. Putin is on his way to China this week, we can expect they will be having serious discussion about just that. Time would have been better spent possibly by XI taking Trump on a tour of their Shipyards and ultra modern manufacturing plants, to better acquaint Trump to the reality of what he hopes to confront.

XI made it clear that the choice is between, partnership, coexistence and mutual prosperity or confrontation, so far, the U.S. policy is confrontation. This is expressed through political and government leaders continual talk of containment, backed up by attempts to sow discord in the Belt and Road and BRICS countries and the massive build up of forces in the Pacific.  

China, so far, has responded to tariff's and attempts at denying resources by adjusting and developing alternatives. It is suspected that they can maneuver around these efforts and that financial and political time is on their side. Confrontation has an erroneous cost. 

Russian attrition strategy coming to an end?

 PREPARES TO STRIKE UKRAINE SUPPLIERS 

INTERNAL PRESSURE FORCING CHANGE IN STRATEGY

It is now becoming evident that the rumors concerning a change of strategy by Russia in the Ukraine conflict is underway. Yesterday, Ukraine was hit by over 1600 aerial attacks that stretched all across the country, hitting military and logistics targets. 

The pressure to bring this conflict to a close has been going on for years, It was in full display when former head of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin marched on Moscow in June  2023 to force a change to a more intense effort. With the recent coordinated attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, more intense threats of war by NATO members and even drone attacks originating from some NATO member territory, it does appear that this change of strategy is now underway. The Latvian government is collapsing as a result of its allowing Ukrainian drones to target Russia from its soil.

While an increase in the intensity of the attacks on Ukraine seems to be underway,  that is not all, it is also being voiced by many in position of influence inside the government that it can be expected that those NATO countries that are supplying long range missiles to strike Russia will be soon targeted with conventional weapons if they do not cease. It is expected that their military manufacturing will be the target. The proposals also are considering the use of limited nuclear weapons if conventional weapons do not bring about an end to the supplies of long range missiles to Ukraine.

In recent months some NATO members have escalated both their support and their rhetoric, proposing attacking and blocking Russian oil shipments and threats to block their northern nports, all declarations of war. It seems we are about to see if these NATO members are really ready for war with Russia.

Gabbard confirms U.S. funded 120 biolabs.

 PROMISES TO RELEASE LOCATIONS

40 BIOLABS LOCATED IN UKRAINE

Tulsi Gabbard has confirmed that there is an ongoing investigation into the U.S. funding of over 120 biolabs in other countries, including over $1 billion to the Wuhan lab on Covid gain of function research. Most of these labs did research in some sort of gain of function with numerous deadly diseases.

She has also admitted to possibly 40 labs in Ukraine that was originally labeled by the western press as Russian disinformation.

It seems the funding was provided by National Institute of Health and the Department of Defense.

There are indications that new labs have been set up in Africa.

Originally the U.S. denied that they funded any such research, but more evidence has been gathered to support that they did support such research.

The big question has always been, WHY, what is the purpose, and what use is planned for the results of this research. 

Does your federal representative represent you?

 I FEAR THEY ALL REPRESENT WASHINGTON

REFORMS NEED TO BE DEMANDED BY CITIZENS

With primaries coming up in the next few weeks and midterm elections coming in 6 months, many question if there will ever be any difference, no matter who is elected.  We hear all the campaign slogans, the diatribe against their opponent, but in reality very little changes. The biggest reason that little changes is that once elected, these representatives spend most of their time in Washington, only coming home for occasion fundraisers or photo ops. It is almost inevitable that they are soon overwhelmed by the culture of Washington, no matter their good intentions, when first running for office.

Their party and their Washington donors have much more power over them than any power in their district. That power translates into campaign money, and media image building. If there is no reform concerning our representatives there will not be any change and they will in effect just be representatives of Washington to you, rather than the other way around.

Making changes will require a steadfast demand for simple changes by you, the voters. Voters need to focus more on the overall well being of the country rather than some hope of benefits or financial incentives of bringing home the bacon. After decades of this incentive, the bacon is getting slimmer, and the debt and loss of representation is getting greater.  

Just a few simple demand by voters would be a start.

1. Limit campaign donations to only money from citizens of their district. Eliminate money from outside the district, even from  national parties. Do not vote for any representative who accepts money from foreign lobbies of any kind. We should also demand daily disclosure of  contributions on their website. 

Personally I have been a super voter for near 50 years, I fully expect that I may no longer be able to find a candidate to vote for, under these conditions, we have to start somewhere.

2. Representatives must maintain an office in their district that they occupy, not in Washington. No more wining and dining with special interests 300 days a year and only coming home for the campaign season. They can conduct business right from their office and I suspect they could even do their voting from this office. It would remove a lot of the power of parties and lobbyists. They need to represent the people of their district, that is what this job is supposed to be about. If they need to depend on the support in all ways from the citizens, they will better represent those citizens.

While there are most likely many more reforms needed, this would be a major start to really restoring our system of government as it was intended.

 

Day 74, No change in Iran non negotiations.

 NO CHANGE IN POSITIONS SINCE BEGINNING OF WAR

BEST DEAL WAS REACHED IN GENEVA

Sending messages back and forth with the same ultimatums and demands is not negotiations, there is no movement to end this Iran conflict.  It has been reported that the best deal was achieved in Geneva when Iran agreed to most parts of the nuclear deal and the war began the next day. We should not expect that any negotiated peace is possible at this point. It seems there is probing attacks and some sort of effort to find a weak spot in Iran in the hope of some decisive military action,  an action to defeat Iran without collapsing the world economy. 

Trump is off to China to meet XI, unless war resumes, I wonder if there is really anything to talk about? We will soon be at an impasse with China, especially with the continuous trash talk coming out of Washington.  The reality is that contrary to the narrative about China needing access to the U.S. market, it will soon be true that they will no longer need that access, but can the U.S. survive without the products now made in China? As for cutting off their energy from the Gulf, don't underestimate China's ability to increase its moves to other forms of energy and also increase access to Russian oil.

Rumors are increasing of a decisive event building internally in Ukraine, coupled with other reports that Putin has finally been convinced by his right wing to get this conflict over with quickly. A combination of internal turmoil and outside escalation at the same time?

Financial problems in the Gulf countries, who have massively increased their debt in an effort to diversify away for dependence on oil, but insured by oil revenues that no longer exit. The fear is that they will need to start liquidating their U.S. holdings, already causing some private equity firms to limit withdrawals. The U.S. treasury it seems is hoping to rescue them rather than let their liquidations start a slide in asset prices. Can the  U.S. treasury prop up any more, when it is having a hard time doing the same at home? 

Something has to give soon, oil needs to flow or increased prices and actual shortages will inevitably cause liquidations of other assets, once started, it may be impossible to stop.

Are Plug in EV's soon obsolete?

 CHINA AUTOMAKERS BECOMING INNOVATIVE LEADERS

BECOMING THE DOMINANT GLOBAL AUTOMAKERS

Chinese automakers, now producing 35 million vehicles in 2025, are also becoming leaders in innovation. It seems the innovations are moving so fast that within only a few years older models are looking obsolete. China is the largest producer of electric vehicles. It is also the largest producer of vehicles, 35 million,  with the U.S. second at 10 million and Japan third at 6.2 million. China exported 8.3 million vehicles with the largest markets Mexico, Russia, UAE and the UK. China also exported over 500,000 used vehicles. Canada is expected to allow a test import of 50,000 cars in the near future.

They are manufacturing small electric city cars with 300 mile range for near $10,000 up to exotic cars with 1200 hp competing with the Italian sports cars for under $100,000. 

Their latest innovations are a BYD hybrid that uses a super efficient gas motor rated at 46% efficiency that eliminates the transmission, which uses lots of power, and the engine runs a generator system that runs the car electrically until it get up to highway speed, then switches to low RPM direct engine drive. It is rated to deliver around 85 miles per gallon. This translates to a range for the vehicle of 1300 miles. The average efficiency of other vehicles is near 30%. 

Dongfeng company has stated that they have produced a new engine at over 48% efficiency that will produce 94 miles per gallon with a Hybrid driveline. 

Not much feedback is available on the maintenance and realizability of these cars, but when the EU and NATO forced BMW, VW and Mercedes to suspend car exports to Russia, the Chinese quickly replaced those cars. While Russians were apprehensive it seems they are becoming satisfied with their new Chinese autos.

It is not expected that Chinese cars will ever be imported into the US, but the rest of the world will be a massive market for Chinese cars. There are reports of Chinese cars showing up in Texas in greater numbers, driven by Mexican commuters. 

Day 70, Indications of war far into the future.

 SENATE DEFENSE BUDGET HEARING INDICATES MORE WAR

PERSIAN GULF STRAIT AUTHORITY UNVEILED

The Persian gulf war ceasefire seems to be on life support and hostilities could commence at any time. It appears that war will be the status for many months, if not years to come. 

Yesterday, Iran unveiled its new "Persian Gulf Strait authority", PGSA, to administer traffic through the strait of Hormuz, It defines the corridors and conditions complete with application forms. We will see if it will be able to allow traffic through the strait.

The recent Senate hearings on the new Defense Budget to $1.5 trillion seems to have many Senators, both Democrat and Republican, ecstatic at the hope of government money flowing into their states. We can expect that massive increase will be approved. The hearings narrative is that the United States now faces threats from many places and national security must be the most important thing on the agenda. It now appears that the Trump administration will soon confine its focus to foreign relations and war on many fronts. 

Discussion in the hearings on the need to implement the "Defense Production Act" and use corporations to increase military supplies including Detroit Auto makers. It is also planned to replace the dwindling energy supplies out of the gulf with U.S. LNG. creating excitement from Alaska's senators. One must ask, is the U.S. about to go on a total war footing? 

It may be that the status of the strait of Hormuz is exactly what is desired, replacing Persian gulf oil with U.S. LNG and thereby cutting off energy to those who we want to contain and control, and insure the payments in U.S. dollars.

Also part of the new budget is starting in December 2026, the Selective service registration will be automatically completed by information gathered from existing data. It will apply to all males between 18 and 26. 

It is clear that dominating the globe will require many more ships and sailors.

Day 69, More fake peace announcements?

 OIL PLUMMETS AGAIN ON PEACE PLAN

AMAZING THAT THIS STILL WORKS

On Sunday we saw the new plan to open the strait of Hormuz, it lasted one day. It was then followed by an announcement of an imminent peace deal, that only the U.S. knows anything about. It was followed by large drop in the oil futures market, just like after every other imminent peace deal. 

Project freedom lasted one day because Iran struck the UAE oil terminal that bypasses the strait of Hormuz and directs oil to the Red sea. It is reported that Saudi Arabia and Qatar also complained that it was going to risk damage to their oil facilities. Saudi Arabia yesterday announced it would now ban the use of its airfields and airspace for future attacks on Iran. The gulf nations understand that Iran is warning that if attacked again, they will destroy the oil production facilities in the region.

It seems there really is no progress on an end to this conflict and I doubt that Trump is that concerned if the gulf oil is taken offline permanently, except for the rise of the oil price, which would be politically damaging.  It is becoming obvious Trump believes the U.S. can supply oil to its allies if necessary and will increase the U.S. trade income.

The trade war, especially in oil, is heating up, Ukraine, with the help of the NATO, is increasing its attacks on Russian oil. Interruption of oil tankers is occurring in many places. Russia has warned Ukraine that any attacks on Moscow during their WW2 celebrations this weekend is going to result in a massive attack on Kiev, and has recommended the evacuation of civilians from Kiev. I doubt that this is an idle threat.

The increased threat to global oil supplies can be expected to result in big power direct conflict at some time, probably soon.

As for Iran, the air war has not brought about capitulation, further air war promises to bring retaliation and a further damage  to oil supplies. The attempt to capture the nuclear material failed and the attempt to open the strait also failed. Now in the 10th week, it may be an indication that this conflict may go on for many months. It is racking up enormous costs to everyone on the planet. There is no indication that either side will capitulate any time soon.

U.S. policy, Reinvent the British Empire?

PLANNING ON  RULING THE WORLD

CONTROLLING GLOBAL CHOKE POINTS AND ENERGY

While many assume the Iran war is a tragic mistake or caused by Trump's deference to Israel. The reality is becoming quite clear that this is all about global dominance. It is not a mistake, it is all about the foreign policy adopted long ago, at least for 35 years. It is nothing more than an attempt to reinvent the British Empire, but under U.S. dominance. 

At one time the British Empire came as close to any nation in history in ruling the world. While Greece, Rome and others ruled the advanced world of the time, only the British empire did, in effect, rule the world. It was not possible until the industrial age with ships and eventually aviation, capable of projecting power around the world. 

It seems this plan has been adopted by the Trump administration, before being sworn in for his second term. He signed on for the plan being pursued by previous administrations.  Whether the American citizenry really wants to adopt the policies of the former British empire, is yet to be decided. A system that created division, death and destruction and forced it dominance by any means possible, starvation in Ireland and India, forced drug acceptance in China or brute military power. For any Christian or other person with a morale foundation it is not what we should be setting the hope of our future on.

The signs were visible since the beginning of this administration, The changing of the name of the department of defense to the department of war. The funneling of all saving wrought by DOGE to the military budget and now the hope of increasing the military budget by 50%. The plan to retake control of the Panama Canal and the plan to incorporate Greenland and Canada into the U.S.,the colonisation of Venezuelan oil and now the attempt to take control of Iranian oil, all Persian gulf oil and control the strait of Hormuz and Malacca straits. This is also tied to the hope of gaining access to Russian oil and resources or make them unavailable to the rest of the world. It is a hope to control the flow of energy and resources all around the world and thereby force political compliance and the use of the dollar in world trade. 

So far, the rest of the world has not seriously pushed back to this plan, whether because they do not believe the U.S. has the financial or manufacturing base to support this project and would rather see it die of its own overextension rather than by military confrontation. We may expect that soon all that may change, as now, the economic security of many nations is being threatened.

This plan requires a large vibrant Navy. The U.S. produced .5% of the world ships, China produces 50%., similar statistics relate to steel production, China produces over 1 Billion tons, the U.S. 80 million tons. A world ruling nation needs massive amounts of production. It also requires massive investment in capacity, the U.S has near $40 Trillion in debt caused by past consumption, with little available for investment in the future.

If the plan is to "Make America Great Again" by coercion, threats and controlling who will get resources and at what price, the leadership should have focused on providing the ability to sustain that power. When this power is seriously challenged, which it soon will, it may be a short and devastating disappointment.

Will AI produce wealth?

GOVERNMENTS MAY BE BIGGEST CUSTOMERS

WILL AID IN EXPANDING SURVEILLANCE STATE

AI has become the biggest source of speculative profit in the stock market. It is estimated that 75 to 80% of the stock market gains in 2025 were related to AI stocks. It brings back memories of the .com boom and bust of the past. While I suspect there will be success stories in AI, I have yet to understand how this new phenomenon will translate to more food, energy or improvement in the standard of living of the general population. 

So far,  it appears the biggest customer is government, for either military applications or for expanding the surveillance state. I suppose that it could eliminate a lot of jobs and costs in the bureaucracy, but only time will tell if it will be used in that way.  I also believe that there will be a massive bust in these companies as the best and those with the applications that can produce wealth will survive and prosper. With the advent of the internet, those companies and applications that increase sales and revenue out lasted those that did not. In most cases it was able to facilitate the movement of goods and services to more people more efficiently.   

So far, AI appears to be mostly about collecting data. We hear of massive data centers rising everywhere, with there thirst for energy. A thirst that may add to the cost to the public, but will it benefit the public or just make data about the populace a commodity. A commodity that will not likely produce any product or resource needed for human needs.

If AI is going to be used to better surveil and control the population one has to wonder, why. Does government now view its citizens with suspicion and will AI make it easier to identify those that may not be willing to easily conform to government plans. 

It seems the world is hell bent, or at least the elites and governments, about the possibilities of AI, all to be paid for by the taxpayers. There needs to be a better explanation of how this new technology will add to the wellbeing of the general population.

 

Day 66. U.S. goal is control of global oil.

 ASSUMED PATH TO GLOBAL CONTROL

ALL DEPENDENT ON U.S. NAVY

We must assume that the crisis in Iran will continue, no matter the consequences to the global economic system. It is now clear that oil is the ultimate weapon to be used to maintain political control of the global economic system.  While many assume the Iran war was a blunder or a plan originating in Israel, it is far more. It is just one step in a attempt to maintain control of the global economy. 

It seems Trump's second term is all in on the ongoing plan of the neocon elements in the U.S. to maintain U.S. global hegemony. This plan started with the first Bush administration, if not sooner, and has been followed by every administration with the possible exception of the first Trump administration. The hope is to maintain global control by controlling global oil supplies. So far, the U.S., besides being the largest producer of oil, at least for now, controls the oil of Venezuela and Iraq, and now all the oil coming out of the Persian gulf. Don't expect the U.S. to relinquish this power anytime soon. 

As the U.S. has focused on the persian gulf, they have delegated the diminishing of Russian oil to, Europe and Ukraine., who have been increasing their attacks on Russian oil production. I suspect the so called estrangement with NATO is just so much theater. It seems Ukraine is now more focused on attacking Russian oil production than even defending their territory and the EU is upping pressure on Russian navigation, everywhere it can.

With the blockade of the strait of Hormuz and pressure being exerted on Indonesia to give the U.S. access to controlling the strait of Malacca, the U.S. can control most petroleum products destined for China and all the southeast Asian countries all either part of BRICS or ASEAN alternatives to U.S. controlled economic system.

The attempt is to force the use of the dollar in international trade and hope to continue the U.S. ability to use sanctions and other pressure to maintain political control. The gulf nations were beginning to trade their oil for other currencies, with the U.S. controlling the Strait of Hormuz that will come to an end. 

While there has been success so far, Europe has been stripped of their access to Russian oil, by sanctions and the destruction of the oil pipeline, the big target now is China and southeast asia. So far, India has resisted giving up its access to Russian oil and China has just in the last few days refused to adhere to U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil. Trump is expected to visit China in ten days, and we can expect an attempt to intimidate China.

While all this seems to be well underway, no one has yet to challenge the U.S. on the high seas. The big enforcer of all this is the U.S. Navy, the undisputed, as least so far, dominant Navy in the world. The question is, can the U.S. maintain this Navy, with the economic crisis of debt, fiscal irresponsibility and a manufacturing base that is questionable in maintaining and renewing this naval power.

The U.S. has 11 aircraft carriers and only 3 are in service, and one of those is now headed for the U.S. There are serious morale problems reported due to long overextended duty cycles and the same applies so the U.S. reserve system decimated by long and repeated call ups. As this attempt to control the oil increases, it will be a serious threat to many and can the U.S. increase its Naval presence and can it replace any vessels damaged or destroyed? Can it find the qualified sailors to keep this fleet in service? 

As this use of the NAVY increases, we can expect pushback for those affected by diminished oil resources, the U.S. Navy is the obvious target, and there are several that have substantial capabilities to challenge the NAVY dominance.  

 

Day 63, Economic pressures rising.

 RESUME MILITARY ACTION SOON, OR GO HOME

TOLL ON ECONOMY, MIDTERM ELECTIONS 

All indications are that an attack on Iran is imminent. Today is May 1, and primary elections will be happening in the weeks ahead, it can be expected that this war will have some influence on even these elections, but with 7 months until the general election, time is running out to have some sort of conclusion to this conflict. That, coupled with the fact that economic pressure is building, particularly in other parts of the world, but it will also affect economic condition here at home.

It is very unlikely that a revolution is in the making in Iran. While sanctions and the blockade will damage the economy it will not happen in the immediate future. A major attack will assuredly be responded to by Iran and will further damage the global economy. A military operation to gain control of the strait of Hormuz is a real gamble, failure would be catastrophic to both Trump and the U.S. image. It seems the nuclear material is no longer at the top of the list of conditions. It is all about the global oil supply and Iran at present has control of the strait of Hormuz. This will only intensify with every passing day.

Possibly the best solution would be to back off, allow Iran to regulate traffic through the strait and hope that the global economy will recover quickly. it would be a humbling experience, but would at least be a predictable outcome that would not worsen the global economic system.

Trump could still claim victory that Iran's nuclear ability is devastated and that its economy has been seriously damaged. It would also allow revisiting this issue after the elections. In fact, if the elections go badly, Trump will only have foreign relations left for the rest of his presidency, his domestic policy already disrupted by this war will then be nonexistent. In fact, if the border wall is not completed by Jan. 2027, it will most likely never be completed.

It appears as though Trump has shifted from, "Make America Great" at home to have a large military and attempt to rule the world. It will end as all such endeavors in history have ended, with failure and further decline at home. 

Day 62, Countdown to military escalation.

 TRUMP GOING DOWN 

NO MORE TALKING DOWN THE OIL PRICE 

Market price of oil today is $106 a barrel, actual price in Asia is over $200 a barrel. It is the ultimate pressure on the Trump administration to make a decision on the direction of this war with Iran. It is unlikely that there is any real effort for a peaceful solution. Iran will not sacrifice their future sovournity for a temporary promise without any assurance that sanctions and war will not be in the future. Trump will not do any deal that will make him appear to have capitulated. Israel and the Christian Zionists want Iran to look like Gaza. The Neocons have been anticipating the control of Iran's oil for 46 years.

It appears that the war will now enter a new phase, as military resources are pouring into the region. Iran understands this and is preparing to respond accordingly. With the price of oil now increasing by the day and all the artificial restraints on the prices coming to an end, resumption of war looks imminent, again. 

Trump has only one way to escape this coming catastrophe and that is jettison all the warmongers and return to his pre-election campaign promises. It is time for him to stand up, no matter the consequences, if he has any hope to avoid surpassing Jimmy Carter as the worst president in history, so far. We will see if he really does have a spine left or is under the control of all the worst elements in Washington and Tel Aviv. 

Day 61, Time for new approach?

 BOTH UKRAINE AND IRAN WARS COULD BE ENDED QUICKLY?

COSTS AND CONSEQUENCES WOULD BE INCALCULABLE

We continually hear that the war in Ukraine will end when Putin decides that the cost of continuing is too high to continue. Then we hear a similar narrative concerning the Iran war, Iran will submit when they consider the cost too high. In both cases, Russia and Iran consider these conflicts an existential fight for the survival of their nations. 

Russia, we are told is not winning and the conflict is at a standstill, this narrative is all about hoping for a positive outcome for Ukraine and its benefactor NATO. We no longer hear the narrative that Putin wants to reassemble the Soviet Union, that if not stopped in Ukraine, he will march to the Atlantic. A contradiction if anyone really believes they are stymied in Ukraine. Russia could end this war in a very consolidated time if they decided to reap devastation on Ukraine by using their capabilities and likely without the use of nuclear weapons. There has been continuous debate in Russia by many to end this as soon as possible, it has been rejected by Putin and those presently in power.

Few are willing to admit that his war is about NATO expansion, the encirclement of Russia, a clear security threat to Russia.  It is always the narrative about the expansionist hunger of Putin. No one ever explains what Russia would want from western Europe, by expanding westward. Russia has the largest store of natural resources in the world and would likely want a peaceful existence to develop those resources for the prosperity of Russia. Before this conflict, Russia had a small but technologically advanced military and of course, nuclear weapons. Russia was not threatening anyone and attempted to come to a resolution of NATO expansion by peaceful means. While many would rather entertain that Russia is a villian, the reality is the west covets the resources of Russia, wants to own them, not buy them, as this would increase the wealth of Russia, considered a threat for the future. All competitors must be contained so as they are less wealthy than the U.S. and western Europe. Forget about mutual prosperity, something that was working quite well with the supply of energy from Russia to western Europe.

While many still want to focus on nuclear weapons in Iran, it is clear to anyone who wants to see the truth that Iran did not have nuclear weapons or a desire for them. They engaged in and revealed their enhanced enrichment only after the U.S. pulled out of the nuclear deal that they had complied with. The U.S. never fulfilled their part to end economic sanctions, which have been ongoing since 1979. The enhanced enrichment was a strategy to being back a negotiated settlement, There is no desire of any such settlement by the U.S., it wants the oil and Israel wants Iran to be far weaker than Israel.  The U.S. has been hoping to topple the government of Iran since 1979, by one means or another, all because it covets the oil and other resources of Iran. Again, keep Iran contained, as if left to engage in free enterprise they would become wealthy and that is to be opposed. 

In Ukraine, if Russia decides to take out all the bridges and rail in Ukraine, which it has resisted doing, hoping for a gradual decimation of Ukraine's ability to resist, it could hasten the end of this conflict.  If Europe truly wants so raise an army and go to war with Russia, the whole of western Eurasia will be destroyed in the process.

If the U.S. wants to do the same to Iran, it will result in a global economic downturn that will last for decades. 

Much of the reason for a strong desire to double down rather than really seek a long term peaceful solution is Hubris, needing to be a winner, both for NATO and the U.S. . While many desire all out war to come to a conclusion, a realization that a new cooperative seeking of mutual prosperity, may still be possible. Can it be accomplished by real negotiations or does the world first need to experience global catastrophe.

WW3 is consuming what is left of the Global order.

 IS TODAY'S WARFARE BECOMING UNAFFORDABLE

MASSIVE COSTS, LITTLE RESULTS

Today, we see the Iran war at a standstill, the Ukrainian war now in its 4th year and no end in sight. The cost of the Ukraine war, not only to Russia, but to the EU countries and the U.S. just in material cost may be close to $1 trillion dollars. Then there is the damage to infrastructure, another $1 Trillion and the loss of revenue to the whole EU many more Trillions.  It all could have been avoided with a neutral non aligned Ukraine that was positioned to be the most prosperous nation in Europe. With no end in sight this war will drain the resources of all involved, with no hope of economic prosperity for years to come. We hear the call for more weapons, raising armies and continued efforts to stay on the same path.  New leadership is needed all across Europe or they will continue to descend into the economic abyss.

With the Iran war now entering its 3rd month, it seems the new strategy is to attempt to force capitulation by economic blockade. It seems it is now a series of "let's try this". We hear that capitulation is imminent, very similar to the predictions about Russia. Is it realistic to believe that the Iranian people really believe that the U.S. and Israel have their best interests in mind. I suspect that no matter how bad it will become they will suck it up and hunker down. This war is well over $100 billion in material cost to the U.S.,  unaccounted costs of the resources provided to Israel and the Gulf countries, $100's of billions in infrastructure damage to U.S. bases in the region.  Incalculable costs to the global economy, possibly approaching $1 Trillion and counting. Yet there is no end in sight. Mostly brought about by Israel's unwillingness to solve any disputes by any other means than U.S. military power.

The U.S. alone has probably wasted over $10 trillion in costs in mideast wars over that last 3 decades.

As bad as the global situation is, it is not all, A campaign is beginning by Israel to focus on Turkey as its next dragon to be slain, similar propaganda as we have seen in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Iran. 

Then there is Africa were we see  conflict increasing daily often by Islamic mercenaires supported by western powers who are engaging in terrorism, assassinations and attempt to overthrow new governments, who hope to finally end colonial exploitation by western powers. 

The reality is, we are already in the midst of WW3, it is an effort to continue the post WW2 global order that is now exhausting itself in an attempt to stop the loss of that power, A power that is already lost due to massive debts and a decimated manufacturing base. It is similar to a double or nothing throw of the dice, that appears to most likely produce a big nothing.

Day 59, Blockade continues, Iran controls exit.

   GLOBAL ECONOMY CANNOT SUSTAIN PRESENT SITUATION

WILL IRAN OR GLOBAL ECONOMY BLINK FIRST?

While the war is still on pause, the strategy, at least for now, seems to be an attempt to strangle the Iranian economy, especially its oil revenues. It is also strangling the oil revenues of the other oil producing countries in the region, who have debts and also a complete loss of their travel destination revenue. It is doubtful that this can continue much longer or that the oil prices can be restrained by talk of imminent negotiations. It seems no negotiations are really in the immediate future.

The U.S. does not actually have ships in the strait of Hormuz, but are stationed at the entrance to the Arabian sea near the Pakistani border. At this point the sea is over 350 miles wide and spreads to over 1500 miles. The U.S. has 9 destroyers and 3 other ships capable of policing this area. Ships that stay close to the Pakistani and Indian border in territorial waters are not being stopped by the U.S.. Iran is still allowing limited traffic out of the strait at its discretion.

While those 12 ships can limit the flow of traffic, it may be very difficult to cut off traffic completely. Once ships get past the barricade line the sea widens dramatically and decisions have to be made as to which ships to pursue and if ships are seized they will need to be escorted by at least one ship to a place of holding. This soon gets to be a difficult job at best.

Israel has stated that they are ready to resume hostilities, but it seems at least for now, Trump is reluctant to further risk the effects of renewed fighting. This situation can not go on indefinitely and it is unlikely a negotiated peace that is acceptable to all is possible. A real dilemma that foresees no good result.

Day 56. No win for Israel or U.S. in Iran war.

 ALL OPTIONS HAVE BAD RESULTS

IRAN WANT CONCLUSIVE END, NOT POSTPONEMENT

Now 8 weeks and no end in sight for the Iran, Israel, U.S. war. All options will lead to negative results, some will lead to catastrophic economic and political results. some will lead to diminished U.S. credibility, all will end with negative results for Israel. 

Option 1, is the threat of destroying Iran's infrastructure in a massive escalation of the war. This will trigger a response by Iran in destroying the infrastructure of the gulf countries and Israel. It seems everyone has concluded that they can effectivity do just that. This will lead to the political disintegration of the gulf countries and a global economic crisis. Can Israel survive more war?

Option 2, declare victory and end the conflict, without any real peace agreement. Iran will then control the Strait and reap financial benefits by it's tolls, the U.S. will lose credibility and Israel will be very disappointed. 

Option3, keep up the blockade, without resuming military action and hope Iran will be forced to capitulate. The question is will the global economy and the political prospects in the Gulf implode before Iran.

Option 4, end the conflict by negotiation, a negotiation that can only be accomplished with Iran gaining many positive benefits, like an end to sanctions, ability to engage in nuclear activity for at least peaceful purposes and guarantees of no future military action. A deal similar to the one, that the U.S. withdrew from, but done by treaty with more guarantees that it will not be ripped up by some future president..

Option 5, destroy Iran with Nuclear weapons, all bets are off were that would end. 

The problem is Israel wants Iran destroyed as a viable country, it wants it to look like Gaza or Syria. It can not accomplish that without U.S. assistance. If it tried, it would be destroyed by Iran and its other enemies. Israel understands that it has lost its public support all around the world and this will be its last opportunity to destroy Iran.

The Neocons have embarked on a decades long policy of controlling all mideast oil, they will resist any permanent change in that hope. 

Trump most likely cannot come out a winner in any option, he may be the lamest duck president in history, if this conflict drags on, and under the best conditions this conflict is many months from any real conclusion. Trump has allowed himself to be trapped by listening to both his real enemies and those who are only interested in what they perceive to be in their best interest. Iran was not really as weak as many claimed, and its population does not view the U.S. and Israel ever acting in the best interest of the Iranian people. They understand that Israel wants them destroyed and the U.S. covets their oil. There is no going back to pre-February 28, the future for all will be very different, no matter how this concludes.

Day 54, Ceasefire extended, expect escalation.

 HAS IRAN GIVEN UP ON NEGOTIATIONS?

CLOCK IS TICKING ON MANY FRONTS

It seems the negotiation charade is now over, Iran ignored all new attempts at another negotiation is Pakistan. It is reported that the Iranians showed up in Pakistan with a staff of 70, prepared for meaningful negotiations based on their 10 point plan. The U.S. showed up with Vance, accompanied by Kushner and Witcoff, who Iran has little confidence in, the result was that after continuous consultation with Trump and Netanyahu, Vance left for home. Iran has voiced the opinion that they will not negotiate under threats and will not meet until there's a serious negotiation.

So, it seems the U.S. forces have replenished their ordinance and it is likely that a intense resumption of hostilities is imminent, again. Iran claims that their response will be equally intense. Meanwhile the strait remains under the control of Iran. As long as the strait is closed, the global energy crisis will worsen by the day.

It seems the populations worldwide are no longer easily convinced to endorse war, particularly wars of choice and aggression, rather than defense. I suspect that if there was a real threat to the U.S., volunteers would be numerous, I think the last time the U.S. was attacked by a foreign nation at home was 1812, and of course 1941 in Hawaii. Be aware of false flag possibilities to raise the favorbidily of more war.

Yesterday there were reports that the U.S. is increasing the maximum age for recruits to 42, from 27 before. They may also now have tattoos and possible marijuana convictions. Will they also raise the draft age to 42? 

Germany, now convinced that they are under threat from Russia, is attempting to expand their military without much success, they recently stated that recruits could be up to 70. 

In the U.S., Palantir a technology company that provides targeting and other intelligence information to Israel and the U.S. is recommending national service be mandatory in the U.S. War becomes more difficult, if no one wants to go.

In the U.S. no one ever talks about the damage that has been done to the reserve system that in the last 30 years has been used as a supplement to the regular armed forces often demanding several one year tours of duty. This has resulted in high levels of divorce and broken and financially devastated families, unable to pay mortgages etc. The reserve system was intended to be just that, in case of serious threats to the nation, not a manpower supply for continuous war. The failure to meet goals for recruitment will continue.

We can expect that escalation will be the next step. Israel want Iran devastated, the neocons want the oil. War is far easier to get into, than out of. 

Day 53, Ceasefire ends tomorrow.

 NO CONFIRMATION OF NEW TALKS

IT APPEARS U.S. NOT READY FOR SERIOUS TALKS

While we hear reports of the imminent travel of U.S. negotiators to Islamabad, there is no new confirmation of talks. Iran indicates that they see no change of position from the U.S. other than surrender. Iran also indicates that they are prepared for the next round of hostilities. The U.S. walked out of the talks last weeks and Iran claimed that their negotiators were threatened, they said last week that they would  not return to Islamabad as they feared that they would be murdered enroute. They also reported that the U.S. negotiators were not prepared to make any decisions and spent a lot of time talking to Washington and Tel Aviv. 

There is no one on the U.S. team who has ever been to Iran and knows little of Iran or has any experience or knowledge of nuclear negotiations. The type of negotiations necessary for a serious resolution would take many weeks and be staffed with people who understand the subjects being discussed. Iran may be correct in assuming these so called talks are just so much theater without any serious efforts at a real solution.

The U.S. congress passed an aid package for Israel that was not about defense but about the destruction of Lebanon, it was made up of 2000 lb. bombs and bulldozers, so it seems the U.S. is paying for the leveling of Lebanon similar to what has happened in GAZA.

The UAE is talking about seeking reparations from the U.S. to damage to its country caused by the U.S. attack on Iran.

We can expect more dramatics today as the ceasefire is about to end, Trump will either need to attack, with all the consequences, or look for some other solution. Israel and the neocons want more war, there probably will be more war.

Day 52, Standoff at the Strait.

 OPEN, BLOCKADE, CLOSED AGAIN

MISSED OPPORTUNITY TO ALLOW CAPTIVES TO FLEE 

This weekend, Iran opened the strait of Hormuz to all traffic in response to the ceasefire in Lebanon. Trump welcomed the opening, but insisted that the U.S. would block all traffic to and from Iran until Iran, in effect, surrenders,  Iran promptly again closed the strait to all traffic. This was a missed opportunity to allow all those stranded ships in the Persian gulf to exit, a humanitarian gesture overridden by Trump's desire to look tough.

So now with 2 more days to the end of the ceasefire the strait is closed and looks like that will be the case for the foreseeable future. While some believe that blockading the strait by the U.S. will cause Iran to capitulate, it is more likely to damage world energy supplies, before it has real effects on Iran's determination. Iran is mostly self sufficient in food and energy and still can import supplies from the Caspian sea and rail to the north. It appears that Trump will indeed, as predicted, be tied up in Iran for much longer than anticipated, if not for the rest of his presidency.

Of course we still hear the threats of military devastation to Iran if they persist, but Iran has also threatens to destroy much of the energy producing facilities and desalination plants in the region, if again attacked. Such a retaliation will then cause a global economic crisis that will no longer be able to be controlled by any narrative.  Attempts to secure the strait by force or take Kharg island will probably end in the same result.

Trump claimed that there were more talks in store, but Iran made it clear that they would no longer participate in mock negotiations that were merely more efforts to force capitulation or influence the energy or stock markets. 

So, it is indeed a classic standoff, a frustration for the greatest power on earth, especially from a country deemed inferior and not worthy of any respect. It is just the kind of situation were reasonable logical thinking can be overcome by rage and emotion, especially when the whole world is watching.

Day 49, U.S. goal is global dominance, ignore the rest.

CONTROL OF IRANIAN OIL ONE STEP 

MAYBE A PAUSE, BUT CONFLICT WILL CONTINUE 

Many find it hard to understand what the goals of the United States are, it is often characterized as no goal, or no plan, or chaos. It is clear there is a goal and it is proceeding. In fact, this goal has been advancing for the last 35 years, if not longer. The goal is retaining the United States dominate position in the world, both politically and economically. The problem is that the United States is losing that position economically with massive debt, corruption and fiscal irresponsibility. The dollar, the cornerstone of the U.S. economic dominance, is a shadow of it former status because of that fiscal irresponsibility.  The U.S. manufacturing base is continuing to decline and be uncompetitive in the global arena, this again is due to over regulation, crony capitalism and corruption. 

Many hoped that the U.S. was about to embark on a policy of reform and renewal through the age old process of good government and fiscal responsibility, weeding out the massive corruption at every level and embracing tried and true business practices. It appears that that has been rejected, Washington now believes that dominance can be retained and even enhanced by military power, coercion, bribery and brute force. It is the age old policy of empire, but an empire that has already lost its manufacturing ability to sustain that brute force and its economic power has been squandered by fiscal irresponsibility and corruption. The brute force policy of the last 35 years has resulted in massive debt, and a flight from the dollar, yet this policy is being doubled down on, hoping the U.S. can still dominate by gaining access to the resource of others.

The present step is gaining control of oil resources of Iran, it is not about any other reason that has been offered to justify this use of force. Control of Iranian oil and then the next step, control of all the Gulf oil, is believed to give the U.S. control of the economies of southeast Asia. Of course, the main target is China, which has been under assault by propaganda as an enemy of the U.S., hoping to unseat the U.S. as the global leader. All that China has done is embrace the good business practices of the an earlier U.S. and has reaped success. 

It is clear, we have demonized Iraq and then taken control its oil, we demonized Venezuela and have taken control its oil, we have demonized Iran in an effort to take control of its oil. We have demonized Russia to hopefully break it up and take control of its resources. If you view U.S. foreign policy in that light it is far easier to understand the plan. Expect to see a reason to go after Nigerian oil in the near future.

At present, the U.S. has lost domestic support for foreign wars, but we see the planned increase in defense or war spending by 50%, we hear calls for shifting production of our remaining manufacturing to war supplies. Then what is needed is massive support at home for more war that is usually accomplished by an assault on the U.S. similar to 911 or Pearl harbor. The intelligence community is now an expert at such projects.

Of course, much of the world now understands what is going on and so far has only reacted, even Iran only reacts to U.S. escalation. One may expect that our adversaries will soon decide that push back is necessary, first by economic means, shedding U.S. debt and embargoes of material to the U.S.. This will set off an escalating action and reaction that if not controlled will lead to global war. The future is not defined.

Many hoped that a new administration in Washington would understand that a new era of mutual prosperity and cooperation is or was possible, but it seems that rather than the hard work of reform and renewal and mutual cooperation it appears easier to continue the corruption and embrace a policy of brute force. A policy that looks unsustainable and will result in a further decline in the prosperity of the country. 

 

Day 48, So far, the blockade that's not.

PEACE DEAL UNLIKELY,  6 DAYS TO END OF CEASEFIRE

NO EASY WAY OUT OF THIS CONFLICT

So far it seems no ships have been stopped by U.S. forces exiting the Hormuz strait, maybe that will change after the ceasefire expires next Wednesday. Iran has already threatened to entice the Houthis to close the Red sea if the blockade really goes into effect. That would result in the combined cutting of 33% of the world's oil supply. Trump has been successful at keeping oil futures prices flat by continually claiming that peace is at hand, not really true.  

Iran claims that their whole negotiating team believes that they were going to be attacked, while in the air returning from Pakistan. It seems there were threats made that if they did not submit to the U.S. terms they would not get home. The whole team disembarked near the border and returned by train and bus. They will not go to Pakistan again, though they were happy with the Pakistan security while in Pakistan.

There is more evidence that the Pilot rescue was the result of a covert mission to grab the nuclear material that went wrong. With the loss of 4 planes and 4 helicopters, can we believe that there were no casualties. Iran has not mentioned the whole affair at all, very interesting.

Next Wednesday will be decision day, to either escalate by attempting to take control of the Hormuz strait or Kharg Island or to move to a temporary period of economic measures to pressure the Iranian economy. The big question is how to back down temporarily without Iran collecting tolls in the strait. 

If the goal is to take control of Iran's oil, this conflict will continue for years if necessary or until the U.S. can no longer maintain the forces and distractions materially and in the global economy. 

Dramatic drop in support for Israel, CNN poll.

 DROP IN EVERY SECTOR OF U.S. POPULATION

ANTI-SEMITISM OR ANTI-ISRAEL POLICY

CNN recently released a series of polls on the U.S. electorate. Polls concerning the support for Israel indicate a historic negative shift from 2022 to 2026.

1. Young Republicans under 50,   2022 +28    2026  -16  = 44% drop

2. Mod. Liberal Republicans                  +26             -  9  =  35% drop

3. Men under 50                                      - 3              - 47  =  50% drop

4. Mod-  Conservative Dems                  +3               -55  =  58% drop

5. All Adults                                            +13             -23  =  36% drop

6.                                   Israel  + 28          Palestinians  +11%

While we may hear that any criticism of Israel's policies are labeled as Anti-Semitism, these polls indicate that support for the state of Israel's policies has experienced a dramatic shift. 

I would expect that after Israel's massacre of over 300 Lebanese civilians in an attempt to coerce the Lebanese government to engage in a civil war with Hezbollah have further damaged their cause.  

The policy of assassinations of the leadership of their opponents even during negotiations, has further damaged Israel's support. While the above polls focus on the U.S. electorate, probably the strongest supporters globally of Israel, what is the support in the rest of the world? 

After the attack on Israel in 2023, they had the sympathy of the world on their side, but due to policies of Netanyahu and his ability to gain support for his policies in Israel and in the U.S. government, Israel has squandered that opportunity for meaningful advancement and created a situation that may be irreparable. This decline in support cannot be improved by narrative and propaganda, but only by real change of direction by Israeli policies. 

Another part of the poll indicted a 363% rise in google searches for Aipac, Israel's lobby. A search of  "Track Aipac" indicates that only single digits of Senators Representatives and Presidential candidates does not take money from this lobby. Many in the many millions of dollars.

Many may dismiss these polls and even the fact that it is published as an attack on Israel or anti-Semitism, that tactic and narrative will no longer fly and only real reform of Israel's policies will improve public support. Israel is the country most dependent on public support in the world, whether it acknowledges or not. 

Day 46, Moving the world away from the U.S.

 COLLATERAL DAMAGE INTENSIFIES

TRANSITION TO ECONOMIC PRESSURES

Yesterday, the new U.S. strategy of blockading oil exports by Iran began. Of course, Iran's position is, if they can't export, neither will anyone in the Gulf. We will see who cries uncle first, but the consequences of this approach are multiplying by the day.

The next shoe to drop may be the closing of the Red Sea, that would then eliminate 32 % of the world's oil with the closing of both choke points.

South Korea is now in a verbal bout with Israel, accusing Israel of war crimes and other illegal and humanitarian crimes. Japan is also not happy with this situation. We can guess the same applies to all of southeast Asia.

It must be made clear the U.S. Navy is not anywhere near the strait of Hormuz, but 600 miles out in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. They plan on stopping all ships exiting the Gulf, will they detain Chinese, Indian, South Korean and Japanese ships? This is in effect an act of war, we will have to wait to see if anyone will put this to the test. 

If this blockade would last long enough, I doubt if it will, to put the Chinese economy in trouble, the risk of war with China will increase dramatically. The U.S. fleet is now 7000 miles from the U.S. and many of its bases are over 1000 miles. Challenging the submarine fleets of China and Russia would inevitably result in serious U.S. losses, losses that could not be easily replaced. 

China and Russia could combine their engineering and construction capacity to accelerate pipelines from Russia to China and India supplying oil to all the U.S. allies, that would quickly become former allies. 

Again, the problem with a solution is Israel wants Iran destroyed, made into a unstable chaotic and desolate nation, like Libya and Syria. It is suspected that Trump has bought into the decades old neocon policy of obtaining control of the world's oil assets as a way of maintaining Dollar reserve status and global political hegemony.  I question if a hollowed out U.S. financialized economy can support that policy, but they may be willing to take down the world economy in a last ditch attempt. That leaves a sustained economic and slow picking away at Iran similar to the 15 years it took to overturn Syria, but they need to speed that process way up.

The narrative of Israel against Turkey is heating up dramatically, they are indeed setting the stage for war with Turkey, something that again would require U.S. assistance. Turkey, a NATO member, has a formidable military and its ground troops could not be matched by Israel.

Looking down from 100,000 feet in an objective way, indicates that Israel is entering a time that its existence is increasingly in doubt. Israel has lost its global support, it is engaging in wars in an unsustainable way.  Netanyahu's trial is again put off for 2 more months, must Israel stay at war to protect Netanyahu? Without a political change of direction, its future looks very dim. 

Day 45, Blockade the strait? More desperation.

 FAKE NEGOTIATIONS END QUICKLY

CAN U.S. AFFORD ESCALATION?

As we enter the 7th week of this Iranian, Israeli and U.S. war, we are now offered another desperate attempt to bring down Iran, a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, something that last week was a priority to open. The latest talks at least neutralized Trump's ultimatums and threats to end the Iranian civilisation, a dramatic dog and pony show that Iran agreed to participate in, fully knowing that it was all about Trump saving face. One can imagine that Iran felt it worth the effort to portray themselves as the responsible actors and the U.S. as floundering around and without any solutions. 

Closing the strait will bring about another outcry from the world's oil importing countries, who probably are willing to pay Iran the fee for an open strait, will they now have to pay the U.S. to end the blockade? We can expect that this latest strategy will end quickly, if it even happens at all.

Russia and China will not easily allow Iran to be overthrown, as its position is essential for their long term economic stability.

The Gulf countries that hitched their wagon to the U.S. and accommodated Israel in an effort to stabilize the region, must now be in a dilemma as to how to preserve their economic future. One must expect that they will soon realize that their oil assets are also going to be a target of their devious partners. Will they soon look to Iran or China as a new partner? Can they find a way for an amicable divorce from their present partners? Do their populations hold the same view as the leadership?

Listening to Netanyahu recently giving a speech to the domestic audience, he portrayed Israel as number 1 in cyber technology, this may be true. He went on to proclaim that Israel was going to be a world power, a delusion at best. Without its partnership with the U.S. it would most likely, not even be a regional power. It has also hitched its wagon to the U.S. and has grown in influence, due to this arrangement, an arrangement that has contributed to the U.S. amassing huge debt and a dropping global public opinion for both.  While Israel has a formidable air force, due to U.S. weapons, and a substantial defense for the same reason, their ground operation has yet to end Hamas and Hezbollah is inflicting serious damage to them in Lebanon. They resort to more genocidal attacks on civilians in their frustration.

The increase in inflammatory rhetoric with Turkey, indicates they are in the process of setting the stage for war with Turkey, a NATO member. They are causing unrest in Cyprus, part of which is under control of Turkey. Some in Israel believe they are as big threat to Israel as Iran.

The Israeli army is stretched to the breaking point and one would expect that, if there would not be a ban on Israli's exiting the country, a new exodus would be underway. I expect the population has decreased in the last 3 years.

No matter how advanced ones technology, a population of 8 million can never be a world power. An expansion of territory into Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Egypt will not cause a mass increase in Jewish immigrants into the nation. 

While the supply of precision guided ordnance and interceptors are a limiting factor in this war, the risk of a economic crisis is rising as oil prices begin a chain reaction of losses, defaults and derivative implosions that may be more effective in limiting the ability for war. Those dependent on others will be the most vulnerable.

Day 42, Ceasefire, Dramatic ploy to escape ultimatums?

 ARE TALKS TODAY JUST SHOWMANSHIP?

U.S. CONTINUES TO LOSE CREDIBILITY

One can not help but speculate that this whole ceasefire and agreeing to negotiate Iran's 10 point plan is nothing more than a dramatic ploy to escape the consequences of Trump's series of ultimatums that Iran essentially ignored. In fact, when Trump issued his most dramatic ultimatum of the "End of Civilization" Iran ended any communications with Pakistan. They just prepared for the worst, which would have escalated into an economic disaster for the world. Then came the last minute acceptance of Iran's proposal, which is now claimed to not be the terms that they agreed to. Today, we can expect that talks will go nowhere and hostilities will resume at any time or when a plan B or C is organized.

Last weekend's dramatic rescue of the missing Colonel now appears to be much more, with all the hardware and other unexplained details many now believe this was an attempt for a covert mission on the nuclear material in Isfahan, that was aborted with the shooting down of the F15. This would explain the frustration coming out of the white house. 

Israel's attacks in Lebanon, which Pakistan and others admit where part of the ceasefire, just enhances the appearance that Israel is not under the control of the U.S. Some believe it is the reverse that the U.S. is under the control of Israel, but this may again just make it possible to blame Israel when things go bad.

While everyone is focused on the hostilities between the U.S., Iran and Israel, it does not address the root of all this continuing violence in the region. Without a resolution of what will become of the residents of Palestine, this conflict will never end. Israel's plan to just either force them out or kill them is not a realistic option. At present, it is not likely that this will end without an intervention by the major powers both regional and global. 

Leaders of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the U.S., Russia and China should gather and negotiate a plan that may need to change borders significantly, compensate any who are displaced on by both sides and possibly build a wall between them. A limit on arms to both sides and intervention by this coalition to enforce peaceful compliance.  The state of Israel was created by international decision, now maybe it is time to fix the problem that they created.

Day 41, Ceasefire on life support.

ISRAEL KILLS 254 CIVILIANS IN BEIRUT

UAE AND KUWAIT ATTACK IRAN

The ceasefire has lasted less than one day, while it appears Iran and the U.S. attempted to honor the commitment, other actors in the region believed it was a time for military advantage. The UAE and Kuwait attacked an island in Iranian territory and Iran responded in kind. Israel launched a new campaign called, "Eternal Darkness",  by bombing apartment buildings in Beirut killing 254 and injuring 1165 civilians. This prompted Iran to again close traffic through the Hormuz strait.

The New York times has released an article concerning the meeting in the White House where Netanyahu did a video presentation on the benefits of going to war with Iran. The U.S. CIA director labeled the plan farcical and Marco Rubio labeled it as Bull shit. It was opposed by J.D.Vance and the military. It appears someone on the inside thought it important to leak this meeting, supposed to have happened on Feb., 11, 2026. 

While it seems there is some confusion about the 10 point plan that both Iran and Trump consider as a basis for negotiation. Below is what it supposedly contains.

1. Non-aggression treaty for the future.

2. Iran will retain control of Strait.

3. Iran can enrich for commercial purposes.

4. Lifting of Primary sanctions.

5. Lifting of secondary sanctions.

6. Termination of UN security council resolutions condemning Iran.

7. Termination of IAEA resolutions against Iran.

8. Payment of compensation to Iran.

9. Withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region.

10. Cessation of war on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

Of course it is a framework for negotiations and a permanent treaty would be insured by other actors. Much of this could have been negotiated without war.

While many will find it objectionable, there will not be peace in the region without 

sincere efforts to deal with the Palestinian issue, Over 72,000 have died in Gaza and over 1000 in the west bank as violence against the unarmed residents of those areas continues. It is time that the major countries of the world get together and come up with a resolution of this matter and enforce its implementation. Obviously it is clear that those parties will never come to a resolution, short of complete annihilation of their opponents. It is time for a comprehensive peace agreement for the region and this may be the optimine time.

 

Day 40, Ceasefire, Prepare for phase 3.

 PAUSE IN HOSTILITIES IS NOT PEACE

LITTLE CHANCE WAR IS OVER

Last night a ceasefire was announced, it seems that Iran and U.S. and even Israel agreed to stop hostilities in Iran and the gulf. This is supposed to last for 2 weeks and includes free passage through the strait of Hormuz. Free, means free flow but may not mean without tolls.

One must assume that Iran understands that every ceasefire with Israel in history has not lasted very long, over 700 Palestinians have died since the last ceasefire in Gaza. Ceasefires with the U.S. are likely not that permanent as illustrated by Minx one and two with Russia that were just pauses to allow Ukraine to rearm. We can only assume that this ceasefire was about desperation of high gas prices with political implications and Israel needing a break and a restocking of missile defenses.

What Iran's strategy is will remain to be seen. Maybe they can restock and reorganize while the U.S. and Israel do the same. It is unlikely that the U.S. and Israel will allow Iran to remain standing in the long run, unless they are physically unable to destroy them. This ceasefire is just buying time to come up with a new plan, even possibly amassing a large ground force, which could take several months. 

China, the real object of this war, understands this as does Russia, we can only assume they have their own cards to play during this ceasefire. 

The big elephant that no one is talking about is the massive U.S. debt, massive deficits for the foreseeable future, the proposed cutting of social programs to enhance the military budget by another 50%, the growing resistance of buyers of U.S. debt and then of course domestic political opposition to endless war. Sooner or later the domestic political and economic situation will eventually be the only restraint on endless foreign wars.

Day 39, Goal may be control of Iran's oil.

 NO PEACE, ALL ABOUT OIL

DESTRUCTION OF GULF, NOT A PROBLEM

We hear all the attempts to describe the strategy in this continuing war and they are all secondary to the real goal, control of Iran's oil. Yes, it would be nice if Iran would just surrender and hand over the control of the oil, similar to what happened to Venezuela, but if it become necessary to destroy Iran and the gulf countries, that will only open up more opportunities. It has to be considered, that this is the plan all along. 

In fact, it is becoming obvious that the second Trump administration has been focused on retaining U.S. hegemony by controlling the global oil resources. We saw the set up begin by the increase in military spending, the withdrawal of material support from Ukraine, that was needed for the middle east campaign. The capture of Venezuelan oil and then the build up for the war on Iran. So far, internal revolution aided by the CIA and Mossad has not worked, destruction to bring about surrender has not worked, so it will most likely be total destruction of the ability for Iran to function. This will support Israel's goal and then allow the U.S. to take control of Iranian oil as a first step to the control of all Gulf oil.

The colleterial damage to the Gulf countries will make taking control of that oil much more easy and the destruction can be blamed on Iran. 

One must suspect that Trump understands that his domestic agenda is coming to an end, he is now free to focus on satisfying the Neo-colonialists and Neocons in attempting to diminish BRICS and hinder the economic prosperity of China and other Asian countries. Opposition at home can rant and rave, but the war will go on. Israel will be on board as it expands into Lebanon, the west bank and Syria.

Of course, that all depends on all this working out, eventually it will create a global economic crisis and can Israel endure the attacks from Iran. While U.S. prosperity will decline, it may still be better off than the rest of the world, making the U.S. still the best performing, as compared to the rest. Even the destruction of Israel will be just so much collateral damage in exchange for the ability to control global oil supplies and hence retain the dominate U.S. position in the world.