Day 154, 5 months, no end in sight?

 WHO WILL RUN OUT OF BOMBS FIRST?

WILL THE US BE FORCED OUT OF THE GULF?

 

The reality is that the US is being forced further to the west with each passing day. It now seems that the US is predominantly based in Jordan and Israel, that is 1035 miles from border to border. Of course, we still have our carrier forces, they are hundreds of miles in the other direction, that is all just to get to the borders of Iran.  The logistics of this war is a challenge in itself, a remarkable task, and very expensive.

 

While an air war has difficult logistics, a ground war is overwhelming,  that is why a war with Iran has been avoided by all previous US administrations. Today, I suspect that although Iran has suffered immense damage, they are still standing and it now appear that they will continue to stand for the foreseeable future. From the beginning many considered just survival for Iran to be counted as a victory. 

 

Now, it may be that they will actually get more than survival, as the clock is running down on the availability of precision weapons, on the risk to the global economy and even control of the strait of Hormuz. The strait was open before this war, and the strait will again be open, if Iran is ceded that control. I suspect that shippers and the international community will accept that control, but it will be a devastating loss to the US if it cannot gain control of strait.  

 

Again, this war could have been avoided, just like the Ukraine war, in fact the negotiations in Geneva had come to an agreement that could have been a victory for Trump, but it was scuttled by the February 28 attack. It now appears there will not be any negotiations, and Iran will retain control of the strait, unless the US wants to hasten its own demise by engaging in an all out war, possibly nuclear, to defeat Iran. A tactical victory, but ultimately a strategic defeat.

 

While many warn of another forever war, this will not likely be the case, it will conclude soon, or at least be a long pause until a new plan for winning can be entertained, an unlikely event.