NETANYAHU MAKES 7TH TRIP TO WASHINGTON
IRAN HOLDING FIRM ON DEMANDS
It is being reported that Israel's Netanyahu will be meeting with Trump today at 11 am. The precedent seems to be that some sort of war usually follows. It is not clear who has called for this meeting, but we can assume it has to do with the Iran conflict.
The United States has now had a large number of forces in the region for over 1 year with no end in sight. We hear from those who want escalation and those who want a negotiated settlement. The dilemma is that Trump agreed to Iran's framework, but hopes to win a victory at the negotiating table. It seems the agreeing part was just an effort to get the strait open and then negotiate a better deal. Iran is holding firm, desiring a long term agreement that will avoid renewed war in a few months. We can assume that Netanyahu is planning war, not any deal.
Trump is in a hard place, Iran has demonstrated that they are willing to resume hostilities if necessary and any escalation on their infrastructure will be followed by damage to Persian gulf infrastructure that will have dire consequences for the world economy and the U.S. economy. Iran is also demanding Israel withdraw from Lebanon, we can expect that will be on the agenda today.
Iran is making it clear that they plan on continuing some sort of control on the transit through the strait. it no longer is a toll, but an environmental fee that will include insurance to cover any damages from spills and other related damage to the waterway. It seems Oman is quietly willing to take part in this joint venture.
I suspect most shippers find such a fee a small part of their business, and any guarantee of safe passage will be acceptable. Of course, we can assume Trump still wants to control the Iranian oil and even the other Persian gulf oil resources. There is little room for compromise by either side and everyday the risk and costs are rising.
I doubt that Bibi is bringing any positive solutions with him today.
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