MOU now officially void.

 ONLY CHOICES, ESCALATION OR GO HOME

UNLIKELY THAT SHIPS WILL BE GOING THROUGH STRAIT 

 

The now irrelevant MOU was the last chance for peaceful resolution of the Iran conflict. What come next will not open traffic through the strait, we can now expect an extended spreading economic crisis for the foreseeable future. 

 

The only choices left is escalating military action or just plain exiting the gulf and going home. It is most likely that due to internal and external pressure, Trump will escalate even possibly attempt to take control of the strait with ground troops. Iran may very well not resist a landing of ground troops, but what comes after that will be a prolonged extended catastrophe with many causalities and still no one is going to send ships through the strait.

 

Ship owners, insurance companies and merchant mariners will  not risk their assets and lives for political jousting over control of the strait. As long as hostilities continue, the strait will be closed. 

 

Negotiations have proved to be unreliable with negotiators killed, immediate back tracking and it is unlikely that any attempt at negotiation will be coming.

 

Actually the choices now are far simpler, there are only 2, both very unpleasant, but do not require a lot of real diplomacy or thought. It seems there was a real lack of any of that anyway.

 

This decision does not have the luxury of time, the clock is running out,  we can expect a decision within just few weeks at most.