Day 74, No change in Iran non negotiations.

 NO CHANGE IN POSITIONS SINCE BEGINNING OF WAR

BEST DEAL WAS REACHED IN GENEVA

Sending messages back and forth with the same ultimatums and demands is not negotiations, there is no movement to end this Iran conflict.  It has been reported that the best deal was achieved in Geneva when Iran agreed to most parts of the nuclear deal and the war began the next day. We should not expect that any negotiated peace is possible at this point. It seems there is probing attacks and some sort of effort to find a weak spot in Iran in the hope of some decisive military action,  an action to defeat Iran without collapsing the world economy. 

Trump is off to China to meet XI, unless war resumes, I wonder if there is really anything to talk about? We will soon be at an impasse with China, especially with the continuous trash talk coming out of Washington.  The reality is that contrary to the narrative about China needing access to the U.S. market, it will soon be true that they will no longer need that access, but can the U.S. survive without the products now made in China? As for cutting off their energy from the Gulf, don't underestimate China's ability to increase its moves to other forms of energy and also increase access to Russian oil.

Rumors are increasing of a decisive event building internally in Ukraine, coupled with other reports that Putin has finally been convinced by his right wing to get this conflict over with quickly. A combination of internal turmoil and outside escalation at the same time?

Financial problems in the Gulf countries, who have massively increased their debt in an effort to diversify away for dependence on oil, but insured by oil revenues that no longer exit. The fear is that they will need to start liquidating their U.S. holdings, already causing some private equity firms to limit withdrawals. The U.S. treasury it seems is hoping to rescue them rather than let their liquidations start a slide in asset prices. Can the  U.S. treasury prop up any more, when it is having a hard time doing the same at home? 

Something has to give soon, oil needs to flow or increased prices and actual shortages will inevitably cause liquidations of other assets, once started, it may be impossible to stop.