Are modern middle-east leaders more pragmatic?

 MAJOR ISLAMIC COUNTRIES DO NOT WANT WAR

MANY UNANSWERED QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS CRISIS

It is now 4 weeks since the devastating attack on Israel. While public opinion has shifted in some ways to be opposed to the Israeli response, we still do not see any appetite for war in the region.

One must wonder about a few things, number 1 is the fact that this attack was not detected by Israel. Israel has the most sophisticated surveillance and intelligence in the world, yet this attack came as a complete surprise. Several thousand participants with hang gliders, drones and other preparations, it is a big question.

For months the division in Israel has been unprecedented. Some believe that the country was on the verge of civil war. One must wonder if the government calculated that an attack would end this division and unite the country in a common purpose. No one could believe that they anticipated such a horrendous brutal attack, but maybe they thought it could just be a wake up call to the compacent population, that was far more brutal than anticipated.

As for Hamas, it is clear that they saw the positive negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia as a threat to their future as a representative of the Palestine cause. They intentionally wanted to make sure that the Israeli response would be dramatic and devastating in the hope that they could rally the Islamic world to their rescue. While it appears on the surface that this has worked, the reality may be far more complex. 

Israel on the other hand, would very much like to diminish the ability of Iran to wage war on them, they cannot do that on their own and a wider war could drag the U.S. into such a war. So far, it seems that even Iran does not want war. 

Many anticipate that the negotiations with Israel and Saudi Arabia and the Abraham accords are dead, but that may not be the case. It seems the appetite for a positive economic future for the gulf countries, Egypt and even Iran are possibly overriding any appetite for war. Even Hezbollah, which is the political governing body of Lebanon may believe the risks of war outway the risks to their long term economic future. Of course this is speculation, but we have not seen any real move to intervene in this crisis. 

One must wonder if there has been a calculation that it is time for Hamas to go and then some serious attempt at a settlement of this Palestinian issue. A calculation that has been in the works for those in the region. 

Both China and Russia have some influence on all involved and they are looking to a seperate world economic system that will protect them from the economic power of the west. This arrangement is also appealing to Egypt, Iran and Saudi Arabia and possibly even Israel. War would possibly disrupt that looming reality and a real settlement of the Israel/Palestine issue is important for that to succeed. Hamas must go, as they are not interested in any settlement than allows Israel to exist. 

The neighboring countries in the region could see the possibility of cooperation with the expertise and technology of Israel to bring a economic boom to everyone in this region. 

We will see in the coming months, if everyone can get past this interruption and move to a more positive hope for everyone in the middle-east.