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Monday, November 27, 2023

"As long as it takes", is at an end?

 LOOKS LIKE MOST ARE READY TO QUIT UKRAINE

WILL IT REQUIRE CHANGE OF LEADERSHIP IN WEST



It does appear that the end of the support for Ukraine is near. It will require a magic act to shift to peace talks from the litany of steadfast support of the past. We see peace talks with 50 nations, we hear of talks in NATO, but they seem to skip talking to the real master of this conflict, Russia. Are these leaders till believing their own spin and assume that when they decide it should be over, Russia will just agree and be go along with their plan for peace.

While now the talk is that Zelensky must negotiate with Russia, I suspect that Russia is not going to make any deal with just Zelensky. It is going to need to be a comprehensive European security arrangement with NATO and the United States. It will be the framework of Putin's proposal before this conflict started, the one rejected by the United States and NATO, except the borders will be different.

After the betrayal and lies in the Minsk accords, the present leaders of Germany and France, will probably not be negotiators. That may also apply to the Biden administration whose members are so vehemently anti-Russian that they could not likely be negotiators with Russia. In fact, I suspect Zelensky may also not be able to conduct any such negotiations. Everything is now so much more complicated than it was before February and March of 2022, when there was real opportunity to save Ukraine as a nation and enter a new period of peaceful coexistence with Russia.

Peaceful co-existence is still possible, but it will be on Russia's terms and they will not consent to half measures and another attempt to rearm and fight another day in Ukraine.

So, while the move to end this war is now acknowledged, I suspect the players will all need to be changed and the reality of this failed and foolish adventure must be accepted and dealt with, a very bitter pill for all those involved.

I suspect this new arrangement will go on for years and require a reevaluation of NATO and security and economic arrangements in Europe and western Asia. It can be a positive arrangement for all involved, but only if they swallow their pride and begin to see the world in a new light of competing and cooperative power sharing.  We will have to see if there are any real diplomats who can emerge to make any such peaceful transitions a reality.


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