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Friday, July 26, 2024

Zelensky, "Time to end war"

RUSSIA CONTINUES ADVANCE EVERYWHERE

UKRAINE EXHAUSTED


It is being reported that China is attempting to mediate an end to the Ukraine war. There are also signs out of Ukraine that some in the leadership are ready to have negotiations directly with Russia. Whether this will materialize into an negotiated end to this conflict will remain to be seen.

Russia seems to continue with its slow steady war of attrition. It seems its strategy is to make advances were there is opportunity, then build defenses and the Ukrainians seem destined to attempt to counter attack. This strategy keeps the Ukrainians often moving troops from one place to another but still continually losing ground. 

There is a lot of internal pressure on Putin to end this war with an overwhelming attack. So far, Putin has prevailed in the slow war of attrition strategy.

Russia will not be lured into another cease fire that would give the west an opportunity to rearm and reinvigorate Ukraine. I suspect that the conflict will continue until there is a settlement reached.

It is unlikely that Ukraine can replace its loses as resistance to conscription is growing. Last week a distraught wife of a recent conscript set herself on fire in Kiev,  a sad indication of the situation.

Ukraine is pressuring the EU to curtail Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia, oil that still travels through Ukraine. Ukraine's electric supply is down by 50% and 50% of its remaining electric comes from Hungary and Slovakia. What a tangled complicated situation. Ukraine will need to prepare for a winter without electric.

This week it is also reported that dozens of UK and French soldiers were killed in an attack near Odessa. I suspect the Russians have sources that are able to identify were these troops are housed.

It is also reported that Chinese troops are in Belarus coordinating in training exercises. This may be a warning to NATO not to escalate this war.

With the political happenings in Washington, it seems Ukraine is not on the front of the agenda and with Joe Biden 's influence waning, it may be an opportunity for some sort of end to this conflict. It would be in the best interest of Ukraine, Russia, Europe and the world.

 


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