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Monday, March 16, 2020

Coronavirus timeline: China, Italy, U.S.

U.S. INFECTION RATES BETTER THAN MOST UP TO NOW

NEW CASES DECLINE IN EARLY INFECTION COUNTRIES


Image result for coronavirus bell curve


The coronavirus was first reported in a 55 year old on Nov. 17, 2019 in Hubei province China. Most of this early timeline has been back tracked to come to these conclusions. It then turned up at the end of December in Wuhan, China, a city of 11 million. It was traced to an open food market in the city, but it is doubtful that is the origin. 

It is believed to have originated in a bat, and then transmitted to a Pangolin a mammal similar to a armadillo. Then of course transmitted to humans. 

China reported 27 cases by Dec. 15,  60 cases by DEC. 20. Officials were notified Dec. 27. by Dr. Zhang Jixian, then 180 cases. Jan. 23, Wuhan was locked down and a quarantine was employed. 

By March 13, there were 81,000 cases and 3213 deaths. New cases reported in last day, 36. There have been days when reported new numbers has been in single digits. It appears that the worst is past in China. It appears to be around a 60 day period until a decline.

Italy had first case in late January, first death,  Feb. 22 with 60 cases reported.  Today, 24,700 case and 1800 deaths.  An explosion in cases and deaths. A case rate of 409 per million. This is the highest rate in the world.

The first case reported in the U.S. was in Washington state on Jan. 20, 2020,  A ban on travel from China was enacted Jan. 31, 2020. Also all travelers who came in before this date were to self quarantine. Feb. 29, travel banned from Italy and S.. Korea. Mar. 1 first death in Washington state. As of today 3802 cases, 69 deaths. 122 new cases today. It appears by comparing to other counties experience we are now at the beginning of the most vulnerable period. We could possibly see relief near May 1. The U.S. case rate is 11.5 per million.

No one knows how long or how many people will be affected. but we have held our case level down quite well so far. While we enacted restrictions on travel from China early on, the disease traveled around the world and we received east coast infections from Europe. While this is a bad result it may have just shortened the time line some.

Many are concerned this is a contrived reaction for some political purposes.  It may not be the case. The problem we have is the credibility of the media has been severely damaged. They have politicized everything to such an extent that most everyone is now suspicious of their motives. It continues until this day, attempting to place blame on the Trump administration for everything they can. Its time they put aside this continued attempt to damage Trump and thereby damage the country. 

It is a fact that, cooperation with calls for restrictions on contact and travel have been ignored by many because they do not believe what they are being told. When the citizens are subjected to years of false information, Russian collusion etc.and almost a daily story to attack this administration, we have a cynical population who questions the motives of what is being reported.

It is clear that the media has attempted to create a panic situation and when officials attempt to calm people, they are accused of minimizing the danger.

Everyone should put aside the politics and work together to restore confidence and a return to normal life as soon as possible.

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