What have we learned? What can we expect?

CORONAVIRUS WILL BE WITH US FOR SEVERAL SEASONS

WE WILL NEED TO ADJUST AND LIVE WITH IT

The Coronavirus has up until now been most prevalent in the Northern Hemisphere. While there have been cases in the Southern Hemisphere they have been minimal. That is expected to change as the southern Hemisphere enters their winter season. There will likely need to be assistance given to those in the south. There is evidence that this virus thrives on cool and dry conditions. The humidity lowers in the winter and rises in the summer. It is predicted that this change will have a significant difference in the worst affected areas after June. 1. 

Self quarantine and personal distancing along with all the other guidelines will need to become a long  term habit. This virus will likely diminish in the Northern Hemisphere in around 8 weeks. It could very well be earlier than that if things go well. It is very likely that it will not disappear completely and will become a threat to re-emerge in the fall. It is unlikely that a vaccine will be available on a large scale by this coming fall. There may be a better way of treatment. 

We should be in a much better position to deal with it in wave 2. People will have adjusted their behavior and it will be possible to better control an outbreak. 

We will soon be able to start a new kind of testing, similar to polling, all around the country to see how many people have had this disease and recovered. This is accomplished by looking for anti-bodies in the tested population and then calculating the results. This will give us a good idea were we stand.

After the second wave there should be a vaccine available and that should diminish the effects of this virus in the future. Hopefully it will not mutate on an annual basis like the flu. 

Next week there is going to be an evaluation of what is going on. New York is the worst area in the country, but many other places, if they shift to a containment and quarantine system should be able to start lifting of some restrictions with strict monitoring. Outdoor construction, while observing the guidelines, should be able to continue. Many other activities, with the guidelines, should be able to be allowed. Blanket shut downs are not sustainable for any length of time and in many areas is an overreaction.

We now know much more than we knew 4 weeks ago and we will know much more in another 4 weeks. This seems to be the prevalent view of the future outlook, it could be better and it could be worse. We will need to go on with life with good practices that will likely be the norm in the future.