21st. Century strategies: Strategic patience and Attrition.

 OBTAINING OBJECTIVES WITHOUT ALL OUT WAR

STRATEGIES USED, BOTH ECONOMICALLY AND MILITARILY

We are now seeing the results of strategies that may be unique to the 21st Century, whether through necessity or planned strategies for long term results.

While it is always unpopular to quote hated adversaries, one must remember the admonitions of Osama Bin Laden who often repeated, but the west largely dismissed and ignored, public videos warning the U.S. and the west that their goal was the exit of western powers from the region. They promised that they would bleed the west into a realization of that objective, his warnings culminated in the 911 attack on the U.S.. Most would say that this attack was the objective, but the real objective was to bait the U.S. into a emotional response that resulted in the expenditure of near $10 trillion, the disruption of the entire European region through immigration, the repulsion of much of the U.S. electorate for more war and a massive increase in debt, always what precedes the fall of all empires.

Most considered Bin Laden a foolish and unsophisticated Arab running around the mountains in sandals and a AK., it is obvious to the objective observer that he has largely succeeded in his predictions. Afghanistan is now ruled by the same actors as pre 911, Iraq and Syria will soon be devoid of western troops. The U.S., by any objective standard, is bankrupt and western Europe is on the verge of economic and political collapse. While not having the military power to take on the west, he was able to understand the hubris and expected emotional response that would lead to self destruction.

One must wonder if Hamas, with little real power, did not take a lesson in Bin Laden strategy, understanding the polices and emotions of their enemy. Is Israel now in a better position than before the Hamas attack?

All this also requires strategic patience, after all, bin Laden is dead, as is many of Hamas, and decades have passed, but the result is now becoming obvious.

We see some of the same strategies used by the Russian federation. Intelligence portrayed Russia as weak and unable to withstand a unified coalition backing Ukraine, to bring about regime change and dismemberment. The strategists knew Russia could never accept Ukraine in NATO. Understanding this, they hoped Russia would react and roll deep into Ukraine, were they would be vulnerable to insurgent predation. This coupled with economic strangulation would soon bring down Russia. While Russia initially made a show of force to encourage negotiations, as soon as they realized there would not be negotiations, they wiredrew into defensive positions. Positions close to their homeland, easy logistic support, and a flexible line that would withdraw if needed, but then continue in a policy of attrition. Attrition of western equipment and Ukrainian manpower all the while discouraging the introduction of NATO troops, that would need to move men and materials 800 miles to the combat line.

They never took out the bridges and rail lines, intentionally allowing all this material to move east, where it inevitably would be destroyed. Attrition, not dramatic, not shock and awe, coupled with strategic patience has worn down the material capabilities of the west and by their own strategy of not buying Russian energy is now emaciating their manufacturing base and causing many of their citizens to turn to burning wood to stay warm this winter. Western Europe is now likely in the most vulnerable situation it has been in since WW2.

The Russian strategists had to swallow hard after attacks on their homeland and their strategic bombers, and even revolt among some at home to escalate and go to all out war. Their strategic patience was viewed by their adversaries as weakness and incompetence and we still hear that narrative today.  Then one must ask, is the west stronger today than in 2014 when this started? Is western Europe stronger economically and politically? Are they really capable of going to war with Russia?