Sovereign debt at root of desire for war.

 IT WILL COLLAPSE WHEN THERE ARE NOT ENOUGH BUYERS FOR THIS DEBT

FINANCIAL COMPETITION WILL LEAVE THE WEST BEHIND

We continually hear of European nations planning for war, from talk of increasing their military numbers and spending more money on weapons. All this talk when their biggest problem is providing the services promised to their citizens, and finding buyers of their debt.  They are now talking of currency controls from outlawing cash transactions and forcing registration of  holders of gold and silver. At the same time metals are fleeing the continent for other places around the world. It is expected that  their plan to go to a Central Bank digital currency will accelerate the flight of assets out of the EU. EU nations are even encouraging the rearmament of Germany, something at one time would have been considered a bad idea.

Japan now admits that it central bank is the majority holder of its debt. Japan's debt is now over 200% of GDP. the highest in the world. At the same time it is being encouraged to rearm in an attempt to insure its position in relation to China.

The United States debt continues to rise at unsustainable rates, but still has the advantage of more financial freedom and while devaluing its dollar in 1933 and 1971 and a continuing devaluation by deficit spending and inflation has never completely ended it currency for something else, any attempt to introduce a CBDC or some other currency will result in a massive reaction. Quantitative easing and other fancy sounding names for Central bank purchasing its own debt is a indication that trouble is brewing.

Some assume that if there was not an alternative, all this spending and debt could go on indefinitely, but empires have historically ended when they could no longer repay their debt. Today there are alternatives rising with countries with little or manageable debt benefiting by the shift of assets into their countries. This includes China, Russia and much of Asian countries with high manufacturing and resource production, which creates wealth. 

While previous wars often put to work idle or underutilized manufacturing by countries expanding their debt, it is no longer the same situation. It may be difficult to expand an already massive debt, so one could expect efforts to raise taxes and expropriate assets from its citizens. It will result in a reaction and one can expect it difficult to rally national sacrifice to enable governments that no longer have the trust of their citizenry. This and the real ability to ramp up military production may make actually prevailing in an extended war very difficult. 

Possibly only a replacement of the current leadership in the EU and a new focus by the U.S., can prevent conflict and a transition to a peaceful co-existence.