Are modern weapons making surface warships obsolete?

 NEW CHALLENGES FOR DEFENSE OF SURFACE SHIPS

WILL LOW COST WEAPONS MAKE BILLION DOLLAR SHIPS VULNERABLE?

We have witnessed an ongoing series of attacks on Russian ships in the Black Sea. It has seen the development of an ability to defend, followed by an improvisation in the attacks that have been successful. It appears most of the surface water drones are the development of the British navy and it is rumored they are operated by British military. They have recently been upgraded to make them very difficult to detect by radar and have destroyed or damaged several Russian ships. 

While these attacks will have little effect on the outcome of this Ukraine crisis, it is sending a message to much of the world that surface ships are becoming increasingly vulnerable to attack both by surface drones and cruise missiles. It is also clear that these types of weapons are going to become available to many actors, not just first class world powers. 

We saw the first use of low flying cruise missiles success in the Falklands war when Argentina sunk a very modern and very expensive British cruiser. While it did not change the outcome of that war, today's weapons are far superior and in increasingly large numbers. Surface ships have developed defenses against such weapons, but it is now possible to target a ship with hundreds of simultaneous attacks and if only ones get through it can send a very expensive ship to the bottom. We can expect it will happen some time in the future.

Cruise missiles and surface drones are easier to defend against than long range underwater drones, while being underwater makes them unlikely to be able to be controlled, several can be programmed to make escape far more difficult. Such weapons in the hands of groups like the Houthis will make defense increasingly difficult. Even now, in the Red sea area, we see warships staying longer distances from the possibility of attack, making them less effective.

The Russian moved all their ships to a port much further from southern Ukraine and has caused them to be more selective in their use, so these weapons have been effective.

We can bet that development both in the improvement of these weapons and in possible ways to defend against them is ongoing in many places right now. Some have characterized surface ships as easy targets, I am sure we will find out very soon.