Is Venezuela vs U.S. = to Ukraine vs Russia.

 LIVING LESSONS IN GEOPOLITICAL CONFLICT

MADURO SHIFTS FROM ACCOMMODATION TO DEFIENCE

The situation in the Caribbean is intensifying with the seizure of an oil tanker in  International waters. At the same time we see the rhetoric coming out of Venezuela shifting from attempts to defuse the situation to open defiance and possibly baiting Trump to attack. We have also heard of U.S. military aircraft flying into Venezuela airspace possibly hoping for some sort of challenge by Venezuela. It can be expected that Venezuela will not take the bait to engage the U.S. unless directly attacked.

Maduro's shift can be explained by the reality that there is no accommodation with the U.S. and he will die no matter what position he takes. This may have resulted in his now using the situation to picture Venezuela as the small defenseless nation being bullied by the oppressive U.S.. It is a message that will be positively received in much of Central and South America. It will be magnified by all those who will see an opportunity to cause condemnations of the U.S. 

A continued blockade will be showcased by the starving and suffering people of Venezuela, who undoubtedly will be pictured as the victims in this standoff. It will be very counterproductive, to the hoped for, Monroe 2 doctrine.

An attack will be welcomed by Venezuela's geopolitical supporters who will see this as a payback for the Ukraine project and challenges in the South China sea. A prolonged conflict in Venezuela will be an economic and political disaster for the U.S. 

It can be expected that material support will be provided by both China and Russia and the mountains and jungles of Venezuela are not the deserts of the middle east. It is estimated that both Columbia and Brazil have tens of thousands of rebel military groups that would come to the aid of Venezuela. Any prolonged conflict in this very large country would not be something that the U.S. is not in a position to sustain.

We can now assume this crisis is not about drug running or terrorist activity, it is about China's investment in the oil resources of Venezuela, it has invested in infrastructure  and even an offshore drilling rigs. It has provided a steady market for sanctioned Venezuelan oil. The U.S. considers its sanctions to be enforceable as international law. That premise is being challenged in many places, but in the Caribbean it is a very red flag to Washington, similar as, Ukraine in NATO, is a red flag to Moscow.

Some believe that the hope of obtaining access to Venezuelan oil is in direct relationship for the eventual war and overthrow of the government of Iran. At present a war with Iran will result in a catastrophic oil crisis within days. An ability to offset that with Venezuelan oil would provide oil for the western world and at the same time cut off oil supplies to China from both Iran and Venezuela. Understanding this, makes it clear that this is developing into a geopolitical standoff that can become very dangerous very quickly.

We can expect that Trump will be savaged by his political opposition and those who desire to sustain their power and control, no matter the direction this takes.

There is also one other possibility about this, could it be a show, to particularly the American electorate, that continued great power conflict can only result in disaster for everyone.  Must the world be on the edge of the precipice before the majority accept a new era of international order, based on cooperation rather than confrontation?