Navigating into new global realities.

 TRANSITIONS EVERYWHERE

CAN IT HAPPEN PEACEFULLY?

As we soon exit 2025 the world is in a period of massive transition whether we want to admit or not. We see that some crisis are still ongoing, Ukraine where it is unlikely any peace will be achieved without a clear winner and loser. We can expect Ukraine will continue to be a smaller nation when this transition is accomplished. The UK may soon be in the process of replacing Zelensky.

In Africa, we are now seeing the coming pushback by western powers in response to the changes underway. The trend is the elimination of the remnants of colonial rule, and with it the loss of revenue for European powers. French troops have been expelled in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad and Ivory coast. These countries have also ended their dependence on using the French colonial franc as their currency. They are now often trading their resources, which they have renegotiated more control over, in gold or other currencies of their trading partners.  The U.S. presence in these areas has also been reduced and security training and intelligence is being replaced by Russian private contractors.

The recent missile strikes by U.S. in northern Nigeria, just on the southern border of the above counties may be an indication that the U.S. is desiring to exert influence in the region, maybe an opening test. It is becoming apparent that Africa is rising on the concerns of the western powers.

Today Israeli Prime minister Netanyahu is again coming to Washington, we can assume this is another attempt at gaining support for military actions against Iran. One would wonder how any substantial action against Iran can impact the plans of Trump for domestic reforms all dependent on lower energy prices. A conflicting strategy with  a war with Iran. Israel has also just announced the recognition of Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia, an indication that Israel is now willing to expand its influence into Africa.  

It is appearing that there may not be any war with Venezuela, nor a exit of Maduro from the country, one may expect that some sort of compromised face saving deal is in the works.

The U.S. announcement of $11 billion in offensive military sales to Taiwan has been received with vehement anger from China. Retaliation has been taken by sanctioning by suspending all material sales to all the major U.S. defense contractors. Material that they need and cannot be replaced elsewhere. We can expect that the economic reprisals will expand until someone cries uncle. 

We can expect an escalating economic and political decline in the Eurozone until there is marked change in direction. 

2026 will undoubtedly see a continuing transition from the Post WW2 economic and political structure. Hopefully it can be done in a cooperative fashion that will be peaceful and prosperous for all involved.