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Friday, August 12, 2016

Trump campaign, chaos or plan?

TRUMP'S UNCONVENTIONAL CAMPAIGN

ONLY POST ELECTION CAN TELL THE REAL STORY



The Donald Trump campaign has been a phenomenon in US election history since the beginning. There is no question that it has captured the attention of this country and also in other parts of the world. The emotions of this campaign have been extreme support and extreme opposition. In the primary with 17 candidates it was necessary to set oneself apart from the rest of the pack. While spending less money than his competitors Trump was able to do just that. He used unorthodox methods to raise his profile and diminish his opposition. While it was a mystery as to who was actually running the campaign, all anyone knew that his campaign was run by less than a dozen people. It was assumed Trump was the master of the campaign and just had a knack at knowing what issues to focus on and how to dispatch his opponents. I have my doubts that this was the case, Trump started out with a list of positions that was right on the mark, and he set the course of the primary that others would never have followed. If you think about Trump and his history, you don't build big buildings by the seat of your pants. It takes planning, hiring experts, architects, engineers, and managers. People to deal with regulators, zoners, and logistics. I am beginning to believe that this campaign is not as simple as it seems. Will it be successful? I don't really know, but I am beginning to think this campaign is more planned than most would want to believe.

How did Trump arrive at his platform, It has not changed since the first days. You often hear people say he will walk that back or he will moderate that. He has held to his platform from day one. That is hard to do, unless there is a plan. Who helped him come up with this approach, I believe there was several years of planning in this campaign and I also believe there are unknown professional people advising him. The Republican consultant class is possibly going to be bankrupt by Trump as he has not spent any money. It is no wonder that 70+ republicans, mostly consultants, signed a petition to the RNC to take money from Trump and move it to the Senate campaigns so that they can have a chance to survive. Trump, just shrugged his shoulders.The National defense experts who have run our National defense for the last 40 years for both democrats and republicans, have disavowed Trump mostly because he stated early on that he would go in a different direction. He seems unconcerned by the defection of establishment republicans. This also indicates that there may be a plan that has taken that into account. Will it work? He must think that it will.

This past week , we saw the uproar about the second amendment, Hillary and the court. After a few days I became aware that the media was playing the tape, that if Hillary was elected she would eliminate the second amendment as we know it,  This video and sound bite was replayed hundreds of times with great enthusiasm by the media. It was more than a 30 second ad. What was the value of that for targeting the second amendment people to dig in and get out to vote. Then we saw Trump exclaim that Obama and Hillary were the Founders of Isis, how many times was that played. Is the real goal to have the sound bite, " Hillary will eliminate the second amendment"  " Obama and Hillary were the founders of Isis" If this is the strategy, it has to be pretty risky or will it all be tied together later.

Trump has been working very hard at raising money, with reasonable success, but has not spent any money on advertising  in the general election. Hillary has reportedly spent $150 million. There must be a plan for this money to be used later. There is no question that Trump is not running an orthodox campaign and it may prove to be a dismal failure. But to assume that it is a chaotic and unplanned undertaking would not be born out by the history of Trump.


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