Possible Historic shift in North Korea

IS NORTH KOREA READY TO GIVE UP ON COMMUNISM?

DOES IT HAVE TO TAKE 70 YEARS TO ADMIT FAILURE?

The recent agreement between the United States and North Korea is possibly the beginning of a historic process similar to the disbandment of the Soviet Union. Like the Soviet Union, North Korea has had 70 years to experiment with a total Socialist government. It seems reform is not possible until the generation of revolutionary true believers have all passed on. 

Kim Jong Un is 35 years old, he may very well be questioning the economic wisdom of his ancestors. While he seems to have followed their lead in continuing a brutal dictatorship which he inherited, it is possible that he sees a better way to lead his country. Moving his country from a totalitarian communist dictatorship to any reform will be a monumental task. He may very well be in extreme danger from within his own country. There is no doubt that reform for those who are true believers will be difficult. Educated in Switzerland, a fan of western basketball and cinema, he may have a sincere desire to make reforms that would move the country to a freer more market based economy.

In comparison to the Soviet Union, which began reforms after the death of Stalin in 1953, it took another 36 years to come to fruition. Nikita Khrushchev was in fact a reformer, but it was a hard fight to give up old ways. He was a early revolutionary and could not really move the country quickly, both from his own convictions and his countryman. It took Michael Gorbachev and a politburo that was born after the revolution to be able to make the really hard reforms that are still in the process. In all fairness this was a country that stretches across 9 time zones and made up of many ethnic groups.

While North Korea is much smaller, with a market based economic model to its south, it may be more ideologically rigid than the Soviet Union. Even if Kim's intentions are sincere, which is still in doubt, it will be a difficult and painful and long transition for the people of North Korea. It will also usher in a new and dangerous era. The possibility of a coup by the possible hardliners in the government. The disillusion of the people who have been committed to the present course.  

Like the Soviet Union, Kim is not operating on his own complete control, his politburo, like that of the Soviet Union must be on board to make reforms. Many of these decisions may already have been made. I suspect that Secretary of State Pompeo and Trump have had some indication as to where and to what extent reform is possible. They seem to have an optimistic view as to the possibilities.

As for the United States, this is not a time for either gloating on success or for back biting and division at home. A freer and more peaceful North Korea is in everyone's best interest. While we need to be firm, we also need to be patient and understanding of the dangerous and monumental task ahead for all concerned.  North Korea may need to be guided by those countries in their neighborhood, by giving them assurance that they can be accepted into the world community. The best scenario would be a quick elimination of the nuclear threat and then an open hand to allow the people of North Korea to feel the benefits of prosperity and a better life.