Now we can expect to see the internal Taliban struggle.

 THE HARD PART OF GOVERNING WILL NOW BEGIN

THE UNITY OF ENDING FOREIGN INTERVENTION WILL NOW DISAPPEAR

Having outlasted yet another foreign power, the tribal factions of Afghanistan are celebrating their victory and return to power.  Having prevailed by a policy of patience and understanding that no nation can expend its citizens and finances endlessly, they must now become a national government that actually is anathema to many of its supporters.

Afghanistan has never truly had a national government, but mostly a collection of tribal leaders and warlords.  The Russians supported a communist national government which never really gained a true foothold. This last attempt at a national government was supported and dependent on the U.S. financial and military aid. It was never a true national government supported by all the people.

Now the Taliban, whose ideology of Islam and sharia law and a desire to expel any foreign power has lost its unifying purpose.  It will be very interesting if they can actually form a lasting and unified government.

It seems that the Taliban has become much more sophisticated than their last term in power. Their present leaders may be inclined to be more moderate, to hope for international recognition, to actually declare amnesty and return to a more peaceful country. You can bet there are many in their ranks who would like revenge, retaliation and to continue a policy of brutal repression. 

Many of these young men have not known any life without war. This nation has been in a continuous war for over 40 years. There was little security and peace even before that time. Is it possible to just throw a switch and begin a peaceful transition? It is actually very unlikely.

The Taliban is now the beneficiary of modern military weapons, an air force, complete with fighters, helicopters and drones. Much of it is American weapons we supplied to Afghan government and also what we have had a policy of leaving behind everywhere we leave. We claim it is too expensive to bring home. When has expense ever been a determining factor of our policies? Will the Taliban be able to deal well with all this wealth and power?

We will likely see an internal battle on who will control what part of the government or even the country. Generations of tribal leaders will not want to be dictated to by even Taliban bureaucrats in Kabul. I can hear the cries of traitors to the cause and other internal bickering. If it is answered with violent suppression it may very well escalate into a full blown civil war with dozens of factions.

While many believe that the Russians, Chinese and Iran will now become dominate in the country, they are likely our state department and intelligence experts who seem to be wrong more than right. I believe the Chinese and Russians will be able to trade training and maintenance of their new found high tech military weapons for deals on mineral rights and other contracts.There will be business done with these countries but I don't see any of them wanting to get too attached to this country and its history.

Most of the world heroin production originates in Afghanistan. They already have been doing business with the cartels and can now branch out in supplying them with military weapons. The cartels can be a ready source of cash.

I suspect no one knows what the long term effects of this major change in the world scene will be. There is no doubt that it will not be a positive change.