Detroit public schools,a glimpse of the future?

DETROIT SAGA CONTINUES

DETROIT TEACHERS SUE STATE

Detroit has been in the news for some time...ever since it declared bankruptcy in 2013. After the city went into default and no recovery was in sight, the governor appointed an emergency management team to run the city.  Detroit is the 4th largest city in Michigan; some have said it was the richest city in the nation in the late 1940s. Unfortunately, the city has been in free fall since the late 1960's - particularly after the riots of 1967. While Detroit was losing some population earlier, after the 1967 riots it became a flood. In 1942 the black population was 4%, by the end of the war 15%, by 1960 16%, by 1970 only 3 years after the riots it was at 45%, and by 1980, it was 66%. There was a period of racial strife in the city and lawsuits by racial organizations for one reason or another. The affluent white population felt that it was in their best interest to move to the suburbs. In 1973 Coleman Young became the first black mayor of the city. In an attempt to rebuild the city there was much use of federal grants for urban development, including stadiums, and displacing many residents by using eminent domain laws to make way for large building projects.

The 70's and 80's saw large increases in crime connected with the cocaine and heroin epidemic. This, coupled with rampant political corruption in contracts and nepotism in the city administration, led to a further decline in the city. In 1991, violent crime rate rose to 2700 crimes per 100,000; in 2003 the arson rate was 6.3 times the national average and murder was 5.1 times the national average. In spite of millions of dollars of aid for rebuilding the city, it continued to decline. The cycle of population decline and then the raising of taxes to regain revenue, followed by more declines and more taxes, resulted in the raising of 5000 vacant homes in 1990 alone. The population has dropped from 1,849,568 in 1950 to 713,777 today. The current population is 82% black, with only 75,758 white residents left in the city. Whole sections are either vacant or have been bulldozed for safety reasons. A program where people could acquire a home for $1.00 had very few takers. This is a sad story of a once great city. There is plenty of blame to go around, but there is little hope for the future.

In the last few weeks we have heard of teacher sick-outs in Detroit to protest poor pay and conditions in the Detroit public school system. The Detroit public school system was taken over by the state in 2009; the administration was replaced by a emergency manager. This was done to stop the bleeding and try to reverse the financial situation in the district. Enrollment declined from 167,000 in 2000 to 47,000 in 2015. Total debt is now $1,291,993,617. It has run over a $100,000,000 deficit each year for the last 10 years. The deficit this year is expected to be $166,000,000.  The district is $53,000,000 behind in their pension payments, with a daily cost of $7600 a day in interest and penalties. They have been behind in payments since 2010.  The elected school board has only been allowed to deal with education with no control of finances as they have had the policy of spending money with no respect to reality. The superintendent, Karen Ridgeway,  has held the post for 30 years. The per-pupil revenue is $12,931 and the per-pupil expense is $14,444 which are both much higher than the statewide the per-pupil revenue ($9912) and per-pupil expense ($9703).  Instruction expense in Detroit is $9051 compared to a statewide amount of $6859.  Per-pupil administrative expenses are $4159 in Detroit compared to $2525 for the state. The school district is locally financed at 23.6%, State 52.3%, 24.31% federal. Some years ago they had to stop financing with real-estate taxes as they would have decimated the city further.

The teachers union has sued the state to remove the emergency manager, because they want a pay raise and the schools are deteriorating to the point of concerns of health and safety. The state has pledged $715,000,000 over 10 years to improve the schools, but it is unlikely there are any good results in the offing. There is little chance that the tax base will be expanded or that anyone will agree to make the schools more efficient to bring costs into line with the rest of the state. The declining enrollment leaves everyone behind the curve in keeping costs in line with income available. One has to wonder if this is not a glimpse of the future for other places in the country.





 

Both parties melting down

THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH

WILL THE MAJOR PARTIES SURVIVE AFTER 2016?

  

The 2016 Presidential election, while still in the pre-primary season, has captured worldwide  attention. We see proposed bans of US presidential candidates in Britain and comments by Vladimir Putin on the US election, all this while not one vote has yet to be cast. This has been the most watched primary that I can remember and it may well go down as having the largest voter participation in US history. Much of this can be attributed to the candidacy of Donald Trump and to a slightly lesser degree of Bernie Sanders. Both candidates have distressed their parties to a point of obvious breakdowns. We see Hillary Clinton, the presumed nominee, labeled as the "establishment" candidate, which she is. She was billed as the "Wonder Women " of the Democratic party and she has turned out to be the poorest performing candidate they have put up since Michael Dukakis. We also hear howls of outrage when Democratic support groups are labeled "establishment" by Bernie Sanders, which they are. We see Hillary labeling Sanders, who calls himself a socialist, as being too conservative on the issues. The usual labels are not working this election cycle. The voters like Sanders, who has the credibility that Hillary will never have. I  have questioned his wanting to win, maybe Bernie has finally seen the light and realizes that maybe he can actually win this election. 

On the other side we have Trump, who has been called everything from bigot to Islamophobic to not a real Republican,  but it has not put a dent in him so far. They all predicted how he would wilt when his plans were exposed to daylight. The whole pack of candidates then confronted the alpha dog of the pack, and they were soon tearing at each other, fighting for the scraps of votes left after Cruz and Trump solidified their positions. One by one they attacked and were sent to the rear of the pecking order. Giving up on the establishment candidates to knock him down, they have now enlisted the self-described spokesmen for conservatism in the likes of Rich Lowery, National Review, Bill Kristol, Weekly Standard, David McIntosh, Club for Growth, David Boaz, Cato Institute, Eric Erickson, Red State.com. and many others. They have even allowed Glenn Beck, who up to now they would have not gotten onto the same stage with, to endorse their plan to stop Trump.  Beck, a supporter of Ted Cruz, who is a good man, has allied himself with the Jeb Bush supporters to stop Trump. Does he really think that if Trump is destroyed they will support Cruz?  Now they have even had Bob Dole come out and say nice things about Trump, this must be a Machiavellian  attempt to damage Trump. What can they promise Bill Cosby and Charles Manson to endorse Trump? Trump's and Cruz's opposition has been strongest among the Republican elites. They still have hopes for Jeb Bush. He was supposed to be the "Superman" of the Republican party, but turned out to be more like Gomer Pyle. It was all about the money; he had the most to spend and everyone was expecting some of the largesse to flow their way. He has spent over 100 million to the combined 8 million of Trump and Cruz. There is a depression in the Republican consultant class. 

Now, what do Trump and Sanders have in common that has the establishments of both parties melting down? Number 1 is trade - both believe in real fair trade that will help American workers raise their standard of living. No one seems to talk about the facts that China has tariffs on American products and requires turning over plans and intellectual property to the Chinese government for products made there. Both will also re-examine our interventionist foreign policy. I believe this is the crux of the opposition. The huge amounts of money that are dependent on these two policies, whether it is buying sneakers in China for $5.00 and selling them for $100, or Smart Phones for $85 and selling them for $500. These trade policies were passed during the Clinton presidency and supported by Democrats and Republicans. We have military personnel stationed in over 100 countries. There is lots of money to made on these policies. Both policies have been consistent for years with both parties and both Democratic and Republican administrations. We have been brainwashed for years that nationalism is a bad policy, equated with fascism and extremism. It's like saying making your priority the well being of your children and families is extreme.

We will see how this all plays out. It will be a show that no one could have made up, this may be the Super-Bowl, World Series and Daytona 500 all wrapped up in one and there are 10 more months to the checkered flag. 

Pennsylvania Teachers Pension Fund Crisis Escalates

AUDIT  FACTS  FOR  NORTHWESTERN  LEHIGH SCHOOL  DISTRICT

PENSION SYSTEM NEEDS REFORM NOW

  

The Northwestern Lehigh School District Board received the auditor's report at its monthly meeting last night.  The good news is that everything came up as adhering to acceptable accounting standards without any major errors or deficiencies. This deserves recognition for a job well done by the competent members of the business administration.

Total revenues from local, state, and federal	$38,515,322
Total expenditures	$36,370,108
Surplus 2014-2015	$1,645,214
Total assets: buildings, furniture, cash, etc.	$94,777,864
Total liabilities Bond debt Pension debt Other debt	$46,217,832 $50,329,108 $997,905
Total debt	$97,544,845
Net assets	(-$2,766,981)

The total debt is now 250% of income; in the private sector this would require bankruptcy.

The big item in the overall audit is the $50,329,108 pension liability apportioned to this school district. This is an increase of $1,212,986 from the previous year. In the 6 months, since the end of the fiscal year, this liability has increased to $51,190,653 - an increase of $861,545 in 6 months. While half of this amount is to be reimbursed by the state, it is the school district is responsible for this liability. The percentage of the teachers' salaries that is to be contributed to the pension by the school district is now 30.03%

This is an unsustainable situation. The return on the pension fund investments has averaged 50% of the return required to be viable. With the downturn in the stock market, this situation may explode to literally bankrupt every school district in the state. The intransigence of the school teachers union to embrace any reforms to this out-of-control pension system will not end well for them or for the taypayers.



AMERICAN CORRUPTION APPROACHING THIRD WORLD LEVELS

ALLENTOWN CORRUPTION JUST ONE EXAMPLE

CAN YOU IMAGINE WHAT IS POSSIBLE IN HARRISBURG AND WASHINGTON?

While local focus is on the alleged corruption in kickbacks and the awarding of contracts in the Pawlowski administration, it is indicative of a widespread pattern of corruption in many aspects of American life. The old saying "where the money is the vultures will be circling," has never been truer. The most money available for unchecked disbursement is in government. It has been common   knowledge for years that jobs for supporters both Democrat and Republican are available on the Bridge Commission and Turnpike Commission. Is it any wonder that fees on the turnpike seem to rise on a monthly bases even as the traffic is at an all time high? We have seen where actual votes in Congress were openly obtained by openly promising benefits for people back home - there should have been handcuffs for both sides of these deals. Trading of votes, " you vote my pork barrel law and I will vote for yours," should result in more handcuffs. Can anyone imagine the possibilities for abuse in the awarding of contracts and kickbacks. When one sees what is possible on a small scale in places like Allentown, it is overwhelming what is possible in Harrisburg and Washington. Washington has been in a boom era forever. It has the highest real estate prices and highest standard of living in the US...thanks to taxpayer money. While corruption at local levels is usually limited to paid trips to the Caribbean, hunting trips, free tickets to professional sports event, jobs for incompetent family members and wining and dining, at the state and national level it is a smorgasbord of all that is imaginable. We have seen trips and weekend retreats in Las Vegas and other places were whole divisions of government are able to enjoy the benefits of government work. Does anyone doubt that there is waste and abuse, which if eliminated, could save taxpayers billions of dollars?  Government today is more and more appearing like the ruling aristocracy of the monarchies of Europe.


While government corruption is all about money, let's not forget the corruption of the media. We have seen NBC news actually alter the 911 tape in the Zimmerman case to make Zimmerman's actions to appear racist and pre-meditated. Was this to enhance a good story or for political gain of the people they support? We also saw the phrase "Hands up don't shoot," still being perpetuated by the media today even though it was proven to be a lie from the beginning. We also see that Trump's proposal to temporarily stop all entrance of Muslims to enter the country, until there is a process to properly vet them, was turned into," Ban Muslims from the country." At the same time similar proposals concerning refugees have passed congress with little fanfare. It is not only in the US. I watched the debate in England yesterday to ban Donald Trump from the United Kingdom (which they will not do) at the same time that Britain has all but stopped immigration from the Middle East and the Prime Minister has demanded all Muslim women learn to speak English. I hope Trump has kept a record of the process, and we will see what happens when those that perpetuated the lie would like to get a tee time reservation at one of his golf courses in Scotland.  Also, if he should become president, only agree to meetings in Ireland.  How about watching Hillary Clinton's televised hearings on Benghazi where she is caught red-handed in lying to Congress and the media announces what a wonderful and successful testimony she gave. Is it any wonder that the credibility of the media is at an all time low?

We also see Attorneys General, both at the state and federal level, publicly refuse to obey the law. We have watched as the President of the United States has habitually refused to obey the Constitution and the "Law of the Land." We have seen that Congress is too timid to demand that the laws of the country be enforced and obeyed, while the courts have re-written legislation and expanded the role of the federal government, which any literate person could see is not what the Constitution intended. We have forgotten that the Constitution is the "Law for the Federal Government." Unfortunately, as things stand now, there is really no law of any consequence that cannot be blown off as not applicable to those in power. If this trend continues and the precedents are set that some court can use to justify this increase in power, what will remain of our system of laws and government? While some may be happy what these expansions have done for them, they may be very unhappy when the same type expansions will be done to them.

There is only one group or entity that can demand that the law is enforced, that the corruption is ended, that honesty is returned to all parts of our society....and that is the people themselves. The tactics of the elites are that you may not talk about this or that, whatever they shall decide is too offensive or divisive, they keep things quiet and behind the scenes so they can enrich themselves with either money or power, while everyone else is fearful of being labeled with the useful labels to quiet dissent. We need to thank God and the fathers of the Constitution for the first amendment and it is our duty as citizens to exercise that right at every opportunity.

Global slowdown underway.

2016 COULD BE END OF EXPANSION

GLOBAL SLOWDOWN UNDERWAY

The 2015 storm clouds for the economy look like they may accelerate in 2016. It has been 7 years since the great recession. While it has been a weak recovery, there has been a steady increase in economic activity, caused mostly by less fear and more confidence in the economic outlook. The biggest driver in the economic downturn has been slower economic growth in China. China has been the major engine of the global economy for 20 years. It has also been financed by a large amount of debt. Some of this slowdown was intentionally planned by the Chinese government, but now some question if they may have lost control of the decline. The first casualty of the Chinese slow down has been commodity prices, which are down 80% since 2002. Low commodity prices have resulted in slowdowns in all commodity producing countries, from Africa, Australia, South America,  and Canada. This has contributed to recessions beginning in these countries. At the same time, many of these commodity producers have large amounts of debt; if these low prices persist this can lead to a spillover into banking problems and bond defaults. China itself has devalued its currency several times to stimulate exports. It may at sometime need to lower its holdings of foreign currency reserves which could raise interest rates in the US.

The energy market is another part of this slowdown. While the low gas, diesel and heating oil prices have been a great stimulus to a flagging economy, (could you imagine this decline with $4.00 gas?) this again is partly a planned decline by the flat out production of OPEC to drive US frackers out of business and put pressure on their political enemies. Forty two US producers have filed for bankruptcy so far and 50% of energy-related bonds are in danger of default. This is resulting in large layoffs in this industry that will have a ripple effect across the economy. Oil wells are now being shut down as pumping marginal oil is actually resulting in a loss. Similar to what happened to beef prices after a decline in beef production, we will sometime see a huge increase in oil prices as demand again outpaces supply. These low oil prices may also kill alternative energy producers.

Another casualty is that many foreign governments and industries have debt that is denominated in US dollars. With the large increase in the value of the dollar compared to their currency, some debt repayments have grown up to 75%. This again is likely to result in defaults and bank losses.

Retail sales in the US have managed to see a steady year in 2015. Auto sales have reached a new record high, but some have concerns about the fact that most loans are now 72 months and 40% of loans would be classified as sub-prime. Auto sales have most likely reached their peak in this cycle.

The stock market started out with the weakest performance in many years. While this may be just an overdue correction, the fact is that many companies have borrowed money to repurchase stock to keep their stock prices up. Also many have valuations that resemble 1989 Japan.  The stock market has been aided by the fact that there is no where to earn a return on money these days. If not the stock market then where? This is going to put additional pressure on many public pension funds which have not been producing satisfactory results for years.

One other concern for 2016 is the refugee crisis in Europe, which will definitely increase budget deficits in countries with already huge amounts of debt.

While cheap energy prices are a welcome gift to most consumers, we will have to see if they are offset in the long run with a decline in economic activity and financial problems for those with large debts.

Middle East chaos part 5

HOW DID WE GET HERE?

MIDDLE EAST CHAOS  Part 5

THE OBAMA/CLINTON YEARS

We have seen that cold war diplomacy and the reaction of traditional Islam to reforms that appeared to move the culture of the Middle East to embrace western morality were both causes of unrest. The motive of western diplomacy until recently has been to maintain a balance of power with the Soviet Union and to help foster a stable environment that would insure a reliable source of energy for the western world.  While we can be assured that there were excesses and manipulation for financial interests, it has been the reality of human existence that power is used for good and evil.

The first Gulf War set up a series of events that once initiated have been difficult to control. The second Gulf War and the attempt to impose democracy on a foreign country has definitely contributed to instability in the Middle East. We humans have a hard time believing that other civilizations may not see life through the same prism as we do as evidenced by the well-intentioned Bush plan to bring a new Marshall plan to the Middle East, however, this is a flaw in human perspective that is hard to overcome.  Defeated Japan and Germany after WW2 may have seen the superiority of the United States system to be emulated, but I am sorry to say that the view of the United States in the last 30 years has deteriorated. We are no longer viewed or envied by many as having the high moral ground, but instead some see us as an example of what a lack of religious belief and unbridled materialism will lead to; this has lead to the belief among some that all things "western" must be rejected.  While many reject that assumption, that view has increased in many areas of the world.

  

After his election in 2008, one of the first speeches Obama gave was in Egypt.  I recently re-read that speech and I did not find it offensive to America and was a positive signal to the Middle East. Like so much with Obama, his actions have not matched his words. The first crisis was the 2011 revolution in Egypt, encouraged by the Obama administration, to the point of having young activists from the United States on the streets of Cairo, some were killed and some were arrested. While Mubarak was an authoritarian ruler, the Egyptian society was the most stable and inclusive in the Middle East. The rights of Christians and other minorities were protected. Their relationship with Israel was the best in the area. Nevertheless, the Obama administration encouraged the overthrow of the Mubarak government. Old and weak, Mubarak resigned and elections were scheduled. Obama had people lobbying for Mohammed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood and they were successful in the elections.  It was not long till the negative rhetoric against Israel increased, minority religions were persecuted and there seemed to be a move to install a strict form of Sharia law. There were protests and demonstrations in the streets of Cairo, the Egyptians did not want to go from a dictator to a worse result. The military stepped in in July 2013 and arrested Morsi and all his cabinet. While, as Obama lamented, this was the elected government of Egypt, if the Brotherhood could have been allowed to solidify its position, the results appeared to be catastrophic for Egypt and its neighbors. It should be noted that as many as 6 of Obama's appointees are linked to the Muslim Brotherhood. This will need to be a discussion for the future.

The next crisis began in February 2011 in Libya. Mohamar Gadhafi had been ruling Libya since 1969, when at the age of 27 he overthrew the king of Libya, His reign was similar to many in the Middle East - brutal repression of dissidents and a large well financed military. While under his reign income reached to the highest in the area and education standards were raised, he also supported revolutions and insurgents in the area and funded international terrorist activities around the world.  The 2011 revolution had a series victories and was moving on the capital Tripoli. The Gadhafi regime upped the response and was in the process of putting down the rebellion when the UN and the Obama administration provided air support to the rebels. Gadhafi himself, old and somewhat feeble, was replaced by his son, Saif-al-Gadaffi, at least as spokesman. He explained they were besieged by at least 15 rebel groups and proposed reforms and elections in the future. Gadhafi had cooperated with the Bush administration in 2003 by letting inspectors and allowing western oil companies to work in the country. Obama and Clinton doubled down and supplied weapons to the rebel groups, many who were associated with Al-Quada and local Islamist groups. Eventually Gadhafi and his sons were killed and the country is now in the midst of a power struggle for control.  It seemed that they were hell-bent on overthrowing Gadhafi without any plan for what was to replace him.

The Syrian civil war began in January 2011. The Bashar Assad régime was similar to other governments in the Middle East, they used brutal suppression of all opposition. This started out as suppression of protests and escalated into an all out civil war. Assad was supported by Iran, Iraq and Hezbollah; the civil war soon became more complicated as ISIS and other radical groups also got involved. The rebels were supported by the US and other western countries. As the atrocities committed by ISIS became more obvious, support for the overthrown of Assad weakened with many, fearing after he was overthrown ISIS would fill the void. As Assad was losing more ground, Russia stepped in and brought air support and advisers to support Assad. Russia would not like an Islamic Caliphate on their southern border. This basically bring us up to date on how we got here. I know that this is a complicated and controversial subject. I have tried to put it all together in a brief and easy to understand way. I hope that it has been useful to those who wonder how this all transpired and how we can deal with it in the future. I will be posting news on this problem as it occurs.

DEMOCRATS SHOULD KEEP FOLLOWING OBAMA'S LEAD

OBAMA'S LEADERSHIP HAS BEEN A LOSER FOR THE DEMOCRATS

OBAMA AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY

WILL 2016 BE ANY DIFFERENT?

Obama likes to expound on how many successes he has had in his presidency. His biggest achievement (at least in his mind) is the Affordable Care Act, which was passed without a single Republican vote. This of course was the Republicans' fault as they were not cooperative with the President. This bill was passed with every partisan tactic that could be mustered, including open bribery. Then he laments that the country is so divided, and of course it is the opposition's fault for not cooperating with the President. Any legislation that affects the whole population in a dramatic way for years to come should always be a long deliberate process with input from all. This was not the case and was the start of the divisions in the Congress. This President has a lot of nerve to talk about others who are divisive. He has intentionally fostered a climate of division in every aspect of American life. I would like to know one area in which America is more united during his term.

As for his results for the Democrat party as a whole - it is a dismal failure by every measure. He has moved his party so far to left that they will soon be off the map. Let's look at some of Obamas results that can be measured and are not some ephemeral dream.

United States Governors 2008       29 Dems  21 Rep.

                                        2015       18 Dems  31 Rep.

                 

Democratic Loss  - 11 Governors

                   ---------------------------------

U.S. Senate                     2008        58 Dems  41 Rep.

                                        2015        44 Dems  54 Rep.

                

Democratic Loss   -14 Senators

                     ---------------------------------

U.S House                      2008          257 Dems.  178 Rep.

                                       2015          188 Dems.   247 Rep.

Democratic Loss   - 69 U.S house seats.

                     ----------------------------------

State Legislative control     2008      27 Dems     14 Rep. 8 split

                                            2015      19 Dems.    27 Rep.  3 split

Democratic loss      -8

Republican gain     +13

                      ---------------------------------

I guess this can be blamed on the stupid voters, or as he stated after 2014 "that it tells us about those that did not vote"... meaning that the Senators and House members that lost didn't run on his agenda.

That brings us to 2016, and we see the Democrat candidates for President moving farther to the left than ever. Many marvel at Hillary Clinton's recent drop in the polls. Does anyone wonder if it is connected to her endorsing the idea of giving drivers licenses to illegal aliens and proposing that gun manufactures and dealers should be financially liable for crimes committed with guns? If this is acceptable, then car manufactures should be liable for drunk driving accidents. I am sure her liability lawyer supporters applaud this. Her talk at the "Black and Brown Forum" (which I thought was the logo of some Iowa college, but learned it was for Black and Brown Americans) was hidden so that mainstream America was unable to actually watch it.  At this forum the other night she went as far as to claim that white terrorism is as much a problem as Islamic terrorism.

Obama has put out the word that any state or federal candidate that does not endorse and campaign on his agenda will lose his and the party's support. Thank you, Mr. President. I hope you make this statement loud and often. We will see how this works out.  

        



LEHIGH COUNTY'S HEROIN EPIDEMIC'S LONG TERM CONSEQUENSES

 DRUG USE DECRIMINALIZATION & CRIMINAL JUSTICE REFORM

LEHIGH  VALLEY  HEROIN  EPIDEMIC

 

Two trends that have been prominent nationwide are "drug use decriminalization" and

"criminal justice reform." While we all must admit the so-called "War on Drugs" has been an abysmal failure, I am not sure that the new approaches are the answer to a very serious problem. The government has been able to place itself as the arbitrator of morality and what is acceptable in society; morality has mostly been decided by activist special interest groups.  While the idea that not prosecuting peoples' behavior in the privacy of their home is pretty much an American tradition, we need to be careful that decriminalization does not become an imprimatur by society that drug use is a good and acceptable lifestyle. How can common drug use be decriminalized, and also not lead to an increase in drug demand?  I remember the public service messages that we used to have against drug use - I don't see them anymore. Possibly much more effort at drug education needs to be encouraged by schools and parents; maybe we need a nationwide effort similar to Mothers Against Drunk driving.

The President's and others efforts for criminal justice reform mostly affects drug traffickers. While the image of people being locked away for years for smoking marijuana has been fostered, it is far from the truth. There are mandatory sentences on the books for possession of certain amounts of drugs. These classes vary, but they are large amounts that indicate drug trafficking. These people are being labeled, "non-violent felony drug convictions". While there may be cases that should be reviewed, a blanket amnesty is a real bad move. This again will very likely increase the demand for drug use.

Having talked to some in the criminal justice system, the instance of heroin use and addiction has reached epidemic numbers here in Northern Lehigh County. Most of these addicts start by taking common prescription painkillers, then find that heroin is more readily available and less costly. Many of these addicts are starting out in the middle school years. Parents need to be aware and pay attention to any medications they have in the home. The treatment of heroin addiction generally has very poor results; good results are the exception. The heroin available today is very high quality and there have been over 3000 deaths in Pennsylvania in the last 5 years. There is also a large increase in hepatitis C connected to this use as it is often a social event. The other byproduct is an increase in burglary, retail theft, and prostitution to support their drug habit.  While the price of heroin has dropped today so much that it's similar to the cost of beer, this may be a marketing strategy by the drug cartels. When they feel the market has expanded enough, they raise the price. This could result in an explosion of theft and other crimes .

This heroin use epidemic will become a long term problem, it will result in many destroyed lives and the lives of their offspring. It affects all members of their families and has many negative consequences for the community. It is not like the drug use of the past, this is a suicidal habit that the majority of users will never overcome.

Middle East Crisis Part 4

HOW DID WE GET HERE

MIDDLE EAST CRISIS part 4

Israel

Any discussion about the Middle East would not be complete without a discussion of Israel. My goal in these short topics is to give an overview so we can all get a sense of the political and cultural complexities of this ancient area. My hope is to convey important and relevant facts without getting into overlong treatise on these subjects. There is no end to how much could be written about the Middle East.

Abraham and Sarah were both from Ur which was in modern day southern Iraq. Sarah was barren and allowed Abraham to have children through her Egyptian maid Hagar. Hagar gave birth to Ishmael. Later Sarah bore a son Isaac and according to the Scriptures there was constant contention between Sarah and Hagar. Finally Sarah convinced Abraham to put out Hagar and Ishmael. According to Scripture, Ishmael was to become the father of many tribes and many descendants. This is the tradition that is accepted by the Arab tribes... that they are all descended from Abraham. This is a piece of the long standing enmity between Jews and other Middle East populations.

Now we all know the story of Egypt and the exodus, and eventually the nation of Israel.  The nation had disputes and eventually split into two parts, the northern 10 tribes remained Israel while the southern tribes of Judah and Benjamin became known as Judah. The northern nation was conquered by the Babylonians and most of the population was taken captive and lost their identity. The southern nation of Judah lasted some additional years until it also was conquered and most of the population taken off to Babylon, which is present day Iraq. The word "Jew" was short for the tribe of Judah, which was able to keep its identity and had populations around the world. Eventually Assyria was conquered by Persia, which is present day Iran, and some of the remaining Jews were allowed to return to Jerusalem  and rebuild a temple. The whole Middle East was conquered by the Greek, Alexander the Great, then later the area was controlled by Rome. Many small tribes and groups were killed, dispersed or incorporated into other groups. With the advent of Mohammed around 700 AD, there was a succession of Caliphs -  some ruled small areas, some ruled much larger areas of the Middle East.  Persia, which is present day Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and Egypt, was able to keep its boundaries, which while not exact, are still somewhat what they were in ancient times. It is interesting that if you read about the interactions of these countries in the Middle East they all had a sort of personality that has endured. There was a period of Crusader rule in Judea in the Middle Ages. The last Caliphate was the Ottoman Empire ruled by Turkey. It was dissolved after WW1 and the whole area became part of the British Mandate established by the League of Nations.

The first Zionist convention was held in Zurich in 1897. Its premise was to establish a homeland for Jews somewhere in the Judea or Palestine area.  There were many periods of anti-Semitism in Europe off and on for centuries.  This was partly due to the Jewish people keeping their identity as a separate people within other cultures. Interestingly, the Scriptures say that due to their stubborn and rebellious relationship with God they would be wanderers in foreign lands; it has certainly been the case. The climax of this anti-Semitism was Nazi Germany's persecution of the Jews in an unprecedented way. While the Jewish population in the Palestine area was increasing for some time, it increased significantly during and after WWII. On March 17, 1948 the Jews of the area declared independence and the creation of the state of Israel. It was recognized by the British and the United Nations. It was immediately attacked by its neighbors, Syria, Egypt, Lebanon, and Jordan. Israel was able to prevail in the 1948 war. There were wars in 1967 and 1973, and Israel was again able to prevail; finally a peace was signed with Egypt in 1978. Without Egypt, the chances of defeating Israel in war was very unlikely. There was also a peaceful co-existence with Jordon. The aftermath of the last 2 wars resulted in a large numbers of refugees and Israel held certain territory like Gaza and the Golan Heights which created a security buffer zone for the state, that is less than the size of New Jersey. This has resulted in 40 + years of disputes. Whether things might have been different without the wars and a co-existence could have been created it is all speculation now. This is the situation that the world has no easy way of resolving. 

There have been continuous threats of annihilation by Iran, Iraq under Saddam, and most terrorist entities, with no resolution in sight. While Israel is not the only problem in the Middle East, it is certainly a major part of the ongoing crisis. At present, Israel has a reasonably sound and peaceful relationship with Egypt and Jordon. Lebanon is mostly controlled by Hezbollah which is a ally of Iran and has perpetrated terrorist acts against Israel. Syria has been an adversary to Israel, but now is fighting for its own existence. The Palestinian entity has refused to acknowledge Israel's right to exist, wants a separate territory as its own, and also wants the right to emigrate into Israel. Israel would cease to exist as a safe haven for Jews, if it allowed unlimited immigration into the country. This is the situation that the world has no easy way of resolving. There again is an interesting Scripture, that states that "Israel would become a weight too heavy for the nations to lift".

PART 5 TO FOLLOW



Br'er Gunny Rabbit and Br'er Barak Fox.

OBAMAS NEW GUN PROPOSALS

BR'ER GUNNY RABBIT AND  BR'ER BARAK  FOX

BETTER KNOW THE POLITICS OF YOUR DOCTOR

President Obama, with much drama and fanfare, unveiled his new proposals for controlling guns. At the same time he is proposing in other forums the releasing of many felons from jail.

  

His first proposal is that all sellers of firearms no matter how few guns they may sell, must be licensed as a dealers of firearms. YAH-HOO, this is welcome news to thousands of gun enthusiasts for over 20 years. When the gun control act of 1968 was passed, one of the sweeteners for the gun enthusiasts was that a license to sell would be available to anyone who was checked out by ATF.  Then in the hoop-la about guns in the 1990's, the Clinton administration decided it was prudent to limit the amount of gun dealers in the country.  So ATF added restrictions requiring commercial locations, zoning, and security which cut the number of dealers by 150,000 - nearly half of the number that existed before the legislation.  Before this, thousands of older retired people had part-time businesses buying and selling guns at gun shows, etc. - to many it was as much a social event as a business. This was all before the Internet. There have been attempts by many to get a license to sell and buy online, but these attempts have been rejected by ATF. As it now stands, if you sell a firearm to someone in another state it must be shipped to a licensed firearms dealer in the state of the buyer; he or she must then undergo a background check before taking possession of the weapon. This can add an additional cost of $20.00 to $50.00, which is determined by the dealer. I predict that ATF will be deluged with applications for a license - which will allow anyone to have guns shipped by other dealers directly to them. Since they are licensed dealers, they will also be able to purchase guns at shows and dealers without a background check. I doubt that Obama and his administration, unless he has some other hidden agenda, is serious about this. He will need to hire more people to issue licenses than to do background checks. Background checks will plummet, as they will no longer be necessary for many people. Br'er gunny rabbit has been thrown by Br'er Barak fox into a wonderful briar patch.

As for doctors, psychiatrists, and other  medical people being able to put people on the no-buy list, this is very dangerous. Any attempt to limit peoples' constitutional rights without due process is the worst form of dictatorial overreach. This is especially problematic now that medical records are available to government official by provisions of the Affordable Care Act.  It is not a far stretch to believe that government officials can search medical records for anyone who has been treated for depression or anxiety or any other emotional problem as many people seek help with problems of divorce, death in a family, etc. Social Security and  the Veterans administration are already doing some of this...Big Brother is here now.

So now, to be prudent, we will need to never divulge any personal information to doctors or other health care workers and we may have to seek out doctors whose political affiliations and view points we are able to verify. Does anyone doubt that there exists some far left activist medical personnel, who may think the best plan would be to put everyone on this list?

How many people will now be reluctant to seek help with any emotional problems they may be experiencing?  Also if this is tolerated, what other rights can be restricted without due process?  This administration needs to place its aim on the real causes of gun violence...CRIMINALS.

see also: GUN CONTROL  VS  CRIMINAL CONTROL from Oct. 28




Northwestern Lehigh Teachers Union Hypocrisy

NORTHWESTERN LEHIGH TEACHERS UNION HAS SHORT MEMORY

"If you tell the truth, you don't have to remember anything.” Mark Twain

  

It has come to our attention that the teachers union has posted a graph showing the fund balance accumulated over the last 6 years. This is interesting in that the union members endorsed candidates for school director and circulated campaign literature during the primary that stated the then current board had run budget deficits for the last 3 years. Teachers union members also espoused those untruths to the community. We now see that these untruthful methods were all about electing school directors that will pad the pockets of the union members. Below is a copy of their post on the union Facebook page.

 I have never heard anyone compare lifetime career compensation. Other than professional athletes whose careers are often short due to injuries, does anyone in the private sector attempt to talk about lifetime career compensation?

As for their wages declining over the past 6 years, they have received raises between 2.9% and 3% every year.  This is comparable with most other school districts. Their wages increased 28.7% from 2008 to 2015.  The total taxpayer wage increases in NW Lehigh were 17.6% over that period. These are real factual numbers calculated from the union contract and from the earned income revenue of the district. Comparing wages with more affluent school districts without taking into account the increase or decrease in the wages of the taxpayers is irrelevant and unacceptable.

If the fact that the school board (with cooperation of the administration) has increased the fund balance by responsible use of taxpayer dollars is going to be a problem for the union, then the fund balance should be returned to the taxpayers. These balances have been set aside for downturns in the economy and emergencies. We have heard complaints from some that the several million dollars spent from the fund balance to replace the 50-year old heating system should have been borrowed to keep money on hand to fund the teacher's out-of-control pension fund. These monies in the fund balance are the property of the taxpayers, not the union.

The union was offered pay increases, 3.4% each year for 3 years, which is approximately 30% above what has been granted to other school districts in recent years. The only reason that there is no contract after 171 days is because the union believes it will get a better deal from the new board it helped to elect.

Below is a copy of the campaign literature of the school teachers union endorsed candidates.

This is the flyer that was distributed by the above candidates and the teachers union. As you can see,  they stated that there was a deficit for every year, and that by the end of their term there would be a total deficit of $5,200,000.  This flyer, as stated at the bottom right, was paid for by the candidates listed on the flyer. One might excuse the new candidates due to the fact that they had never attended a school board meeting and may not have been aware of the facts. But I must assume that the leader of this slate, Willard Dellicker, the sitting president of the school board, must have known the facts concerning the fund balances.  Mr. Dellicker has been a member of the school board for decades; I don't know how this could have happened. I hope Mr. Dellicker can explain to the residents of the district, that he represents on the school board, how this erroneous information was endorsed by him.   I don't recall any attempts to correct this during the election or after. This flyer was distributed by members of the union to their neighbors and members of the community who trusted their knowledge of the finances of the school. These facts could have been checked at any time by just asking the superintendent or the business manager, but I assume they did not. How are they going to repair their credibility with their neighbors and members of the community?

Now we see that they found that there is actually a fund balance increase of some $11,000,000, in the last 4 years.  I wonder were they obtained this truthful information. It is ironic that they now believe there is an increase in the fund balance and they should have a share of it.





Governor Wolf Losing Crisis War

GOVERNOR  WOLF  LOSING  CRISIS  WAR

IS HE WILLING TO FIGHT TO LAST MAN?

Governor Wolf  has finally relented and released the school hostages. He has now allowed funds to be released for schools and some other services. Interestingly, he and his staff have been paid on schedule through this whole ordeal. This could have happened many months ago, as the legislature proposed many fixes to not put stress on schools and other important funding.

The Governor has in effect lost this battle. It was doomed from the beginning, when he believed that he could put political pressure on his adversaries by creating a fiscal crisis. The economic realities are changing and taxpayers are fed up with tax increases everywhere. Politicians of all stripes must adapt by adopting methods of fiscal responsibility to make due with what is currently available. Harrisburg is long overdue for reform. The tendency to start the budget process by deciding how much they would like to spend is the reverse of good management. How about starting out by determining how much money they can expect to receive and then managing accordingly. I am sorry to say, that there is really very little proper management in government. If they don't have enough money, they just raise taxes...which takes more money out the private sector, so there is less to spend and invest in the economy and then they wonder why we have a stagnant economy at all levels.

How about the Governor and the legislature working together to start an economic revolution in government.  They should spend the next year looking at every program and expenditure and scrapping and eliminating inefficient and wasteful endeavors. Does anyone contend that there is no room for things to be eliminated or re-evaluated?  I would expect that they could find several billion dollars in savings. Then look to the future of the state by making it one of the best states in the nation in which to do business and create wealth. This idea of eating the seed corn, which is the norm, will only lead to a stagnant, declining economy.

Pennsylvania is the 10th highest state in taxes - this is not something to be proud of.  It also is the 11th highest in education spending. More spending is not always an indication of success. The pension system is a real crisis that should be a priority for attention. The real solution is to take the money in the fund and distribute to all in the system, which they can roll over into a 401K-like program. The government bodies and the government employees can then contribute a defined amount to their own pension.  I can hear the wailing and gnashing of teeth now, but the pension is now only earning half of what is needed to make it viable. In the next major downturn, which could very well be on the horizon, many states will be in default and the pensions will not get paid.  It is not possible to tax our way out of this crisis.

While I have not seen Governor Wolf's actual future plan for the budget, it seems he is going to attempt to hold some more items hostage. This plan is over, his troops are in retreat, he has grossly miscalculated the situation. His recriminations to the legislature last week did not help; he needs to make a decision to move on or he will end up politically like Custer.