Middle East chaos part 5

HOW DID WE GET HERE?

MIDDLE EAST CHAOS  Part 5

THE OBAMA/CLINTON YEARS

We have seen that cold war diplomacy and the reaction of traditional Islam to reforms that appeared to move the culture of the Middle East to embrace western morality were both causes of unrest. The motive of western diplomacy until recently has been to maintain a balance of power with the Soviet Union and to help foster a stable environment that would insure a reliable source of energy for the western world.  While we can be assured that there were excesses and manipulation for financial interests, it has been the reality of human existence that power is used for good and evil.

The first Gulf War set up a series of events that once initiated have been difficult to control. The second Gulf War and the attempt to impose democracy on a foreign country has definitely contributed to instability in the Middle East. We humans have a hard time believing that other civilizations may not see life through the same prism as we do as evidenced by the well-intentioned Bush plan to bring a new Marshall plan to the Middle East, however, this is a flaw in human perspective that is hard to overcome.  Defeated Japan and Germany after WW2 may have seen the superiority of the United States system to be emulated, but I am sorry to say that the view of the United States in the last 30 years has deteriorated. We are no longer viewed or envied by many as having the high moral ground, but instead some see us as an example of what a lack of religious belief and unbridled materialism will lead to; this has lead to the belief among some that all things "western" must be rejected.  While many reject that assumption, that view has increased in many areas of the world.

  

After his election in 2008, one of the first speeches Obama gave was in Egypt.  I recently re-read that speech and I did not find it offensive to America and was a positive signal to the Middle East. Like so much with Obama, his actions have not matched his words. The first crisis was the 2011 revolution in Egypt, encouraged by the Obama administration, to the point of having young activists from the United States on the streets of Cairo, some were killed and some were arrested. While Mubarak was an authoritarian ruler, the Egyptian society was the most stable and inclusive in the Middle East. The rights of Christians and other minorities were protected. Their relationship with Israel was the best in the area. Nevertheless, the Obama administration encouraged the overthrow of the Mubarak government. Old and weak, Mubarak resigned and elections were scheduled. Obama had people lobbying for Mohammed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood and they were successful in the elections.  It was not long till the negative rhetoric against Israel increased, minority religions were persecuted and there seemed to be a move to install a strict form of Sharia law. There were protests and demonstrations in the streets of Cairo, the Egyptians did not want to go from a dictator to a worse result. The military stepped in in July 2013 and arrested Morsi and all his cabinet. While, as Obama lamented, this was the elected government of Egypt, if the Brotherhood could have been allowed to solidify its position, the results appeared to be catastrophic for Egypt and its neighbors. It should be noted that as many as 6 of Obama's appointees are linked to the Muslim Brotherhood. This will need to be a discussion for the future.

The next crisis began in February 2011 in Libya. Mohamar Gadhafi had been ruling Libya since 1969, when at the age of 27 he overthrew the king of Libya, His reign was similar to many in the Middle East - brutal repression of dissidents and a large well financed military. While under his reign income reached to the highest in the area and education standards were raised, he also supported revolutions and insurgents in the area and funded international terrorist activities around the world.  The 2011 revolution had a series victories and was moving on the capital Tripoli. The Gadhafi regime upped the response and was in the process of putting down the rebellion when the UN and the Obama administration provided air support to the rebels. Gadhafi himself, old and somewhat feeble, was replaced by his son, Saif-al-Gadaffi, at least as spokesman. He explained they were besieged by at least 15 rebel groups and proposed reforms and elections in the future. Gadhafi had cooperated with the Bush administration in 2003 by letting inspectors and allowing western oil companies to work in the country. Obama and Clinton doubled down and supplied weapons to the rebel groups, many who were associated with Al-Quada and local Islamist groups. Eventually Gadhafi and his sons were killed and the country is now in the midst of a power struggle for control.  It seemed that they were hell-bent on overthrowing Gadhafi without any plan for what was to replace him.

The Syrian civil war began in January 2011. The Bashar Assad régime was similar to other governments in the Middle East, they used brutal suppression of all opposition. This started out as suppression of protests and escalated into an all out civil war. Assad was supported by Iran, Iraq and Hezbollah; the civil war soon became more complicated as ISIS and other radical groups also got involved. The rebels were supported by the US and other western countries. As the atrocities committed by ISIS became more obvious, support for the overthrown of Assad weakened with many, fearing after he was overthrown ISIS would fill the void. As Assad was losing more ground, Russia stepped in and brought air support and advisers to support Assad. Russia would not like an Islamic Caliphate on their southern border. This basically bring us up to date on how we got here. I know that this is a complicated and controversial subject. I have tried to put it all together in a brief and easy to understand way. I hope that it has been useful to those who wonder how this all transpired and how we can deal with it in the future. I will be posting news on this problem as it occurs.