Stars aligning for Trump

NEVADA AND SOUTH CAROLINA SOLIDIFY LEADERS

CRUZ CAMPAIGN STUMBLES

 

Hillary Clinton stops Bernie Sanders momentum in Nevada and with Hillary polling way out in front in South Carolina it looks like she is on a straight line to the nomination. While Sanders may be able to challenge in some states, Hillary has outbid Sanders for the minority vote, which is making up a large share of the Democratic voters. This and the fact that she has the inside line on the super delegates it is very unlikely that Sanders will prevail.

Donald Trump wins in South Carolina by 10 points. This looked to be a brutal struggle in this state where there were definitely some winners and losers. Trump was knocked down some by the negative campaign of Cruz and Bush as well as his poor showing in the debate. Cruz had more self damage in the amateurish attempts at dirty campaigning, using photo-shopped lies with Rubio, and using statements by Trump that were out of context. Cruz had plenty of legitimate ammo to fire at Trump, but the obvious misrepresentations hurt his credibility.  This, along with his tricks against Ben Carson in Iowa, may have permanently damaged him. Then there were statements by his campaign ally Glen Beck, that stated,"Scalia's death was a sign from God that voters needed to vote for Cruz to name his replacement." I believe that this will hurt his chances of being a vice-presidential candidate or a supreme court justice. He should have immediately chastised Beck if he wanted to have a chance in the future.  Rubio was the surprise second place finisher and came out of  South Carolina stronger than he went in. Rubio has now become the obvious establishment candidate, with endorsements by Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, and I assume a flood of other endorsements. This may be the death knell for Rubio as establishment endorsements may hang like a weight around his neck. Jeb Bush finally ended his campaign, which was the best thing for him and his family. It was never meant to be; he would be wise to just stay out of this race in any way.

Looking ahead, Trump is polling very well in Nevada and the races on Mar. 1. There is a debate on Feb. 25th and he needs to now become presidential and above the fray. He can dismiss most of the incoming as the attempts of desperate candidates. He can label Cruz as dishonest, and Rubio as boyish and desperate. He if settles down, slows down in his delivery, and better articulates his positions, he will not likely be stopped. In a general election he has a good chance of bringing many democrat voters to his side. Hillary has been forced by Sanders to pander to black voters and black lives matter types. It is likely if this campaign goes long, Sanders voters, who are many and enthusiastic, will not be in a hurry to work for or come out for Hillary. While everyone thinks Trump can't beat Clinton, I would not underestimate Trump's ability to identify Hillary's weaknesses, which are many. While it may go down as the campaign of the century, Trump has at least a 50/50 chance of prevailing.