Syrian peace plan, years in making

SYRIAN PEACE PLAN RESULT OF ASTANA MEETINGS

HOPE TO END THE SYRIAN DISASTER

The last few weeks we have seen the results of plans that have been in the making since 2017. These meetings have been held in Astana Kazakhstan. the main participants have been Russia, Turkey and Iran. There has been input by all the neighboring countries in the region including Syria, Israel, Saudi Arabia , Jordan and Syrian opposition groups. There has also been consultation between Russia and Turkey and the United States.

Russia has much leverage with Syria, after-all without Russian intervention, Assad would have likely been killed and Syria overrun by ISIS. Russia also has leverage over Iran. The United States can put pressure on Turkey to not take advantage of the situation.

One of the biggest roadblocks has been the Syrian Kurd situation. There were attempts by Russia to negotiate a independent area for the Kurds, but it could not be accomplished. Turkey has been fighting sporadically with a Kurdish independence movement for decades, they do not want any such situation on their southern border. This all came to a head in the last few weeks, when Turkey took the first step in implementing the plan. 

This plan is to establish a 20 mile wide safe zone in northern Syria, it is now being patrolled by a joint effort by Turkey and Russia. The plan is to demilitarize this area and also stop illegal cross traffic across this border. Then the plan calls for $50 billion in a reconstruction of housing and infrastructure in this area and then the repatriation of several million Syrian refugees.

The Syrian refuge crisis has already cost Turkey over $40 billion and created financial and political problems in Jordan and Europe.

There have been pledges made by Saudi-Arabia and other Gulf countries. I am sure there will be contributions made by the EU and other western countries.

The United States has secured the Syrian oil assets so they are not accessible to Iran or  ISIS remnants. These assets will eventually be turned over to a stabilized Syria.

There also is a formation of a Syrian constitutional committee, made up of Syrian parties. It is the hope to implement these agreements after Syria is stabilized.

There was much division in the United States foreign policy establishment. They were committed to the removal of Assad from power. It also seems that they may have preferred a destabilized and fragmented Syria . While Trump was not in a political position to be an active member of this plan, he was kept abreast of the negotiations by both Turkey and Russia. He did agree to not get in the way of this attempt to bring a peaceful resolution to the Syrian disaster.

There are accusations that his was an impulsive and not thought out decision by Trump and Turkey, that is just a lot of disinformation. There also are the claims that this is a political win for Russia and Iran. If it brings about peace and stability to this part of the world, so be it.  If this plan is successful it will be a win for everyone.