The ongoing tragedy of Ukraine.

 INTERNAL DIFFERENCES MAGNIFIED BY OUTSIDE INTERFERENCE

THE RESULT OF THE DENIAL OF THE RIGHTS OF OPPONENTS

While we witness the ongoing tragedy in Ukraine we must recognize that it is the result of an ongoing internal dispute about the direction of the country. While we are told this tragedy is all the fault of an "unprovoked attack by Russia", the truth is far more complicated. The above map is the election result of 2010 in which Viktor Yanukovych won with 48% of vote compared to 45% of the vote by his opponent.. It was a very contested election with many accusations of voter fraud and other disputes.

After the break-up of the Soviet Union, Ukraine became a independent country. Its history and population is as diverse as many other countries around the world. Eastern Ukraine is predominately a Russian speaking population and the industrial heartland of the country. Western Ukraine is populated by the intellectual elites of the country, who are more inclined to identify with western Europe. Western Ukraine's population mostly sided with NAZI Germany in WW2, the eastern part the Soviet Union. 

After independence, a struggle ensued for the direction of the country,. the west wanted to become part of the EU. and negotiations were conducted in that direction. One of the sticking points was that if accepted, Ukraine could not freely trade with Russia. This was problem in eastern Ukraine as that most of its business was conducted with Russia and much of Russia's military industry was based in eastern Ukraine. While this was a hurdle, it could have been negotiated.

This dispute over EU membership and then speeches by U.S. presidents and politicians urging Ukraine membership in NATO became another area of dispute within the country, with eastern Ukraine against any such militarily alliance. 

Then there was the the intellectual western part of the country pushing for the adoption of a policy of creating a unique Ukrainian culture separate from the traditions and cultural ties in other parts of the country. One part was the outlawing of speaking Russian, the elimination of cultural symbols and monuments of the former Soviet Union even the military monuments for the dead from WW2. all these issues were simmering for years before the Ukrainian revolution of 2014.

In 2014, these issues coupled with lots of support from the west, including the United States orchestrated by Victoria Nuland and $5 billion dollars of U.S. money culminated in the overthrow of the Ukrainian government and the ouster of  Yanukovych, who was labeled as a Russian Puppet. Yanukovych was elected and supported by much of eastern Ukraine, this brought about the declaration of independence by several eastern provinces and the outbreak of a civil war. It also resulted in an election in Crimea that brought Crimea back into the the Russian federation.

A peace was negotiated between Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France that was called the" Minsk agreements" that promised to protect the rights of minorities and ethic Russians in eastern Ukraine, it was never implemented and a continuous shelling and of eastern Ukraine continued until 2022.

Then in 2021 Yelensky gave a speech in which he declared that there would be an all out effort to retake Crimea and bring eastern Ukraine into compliance by any means including military force. There was then a buildup of troops moving into eastern Ukraine and a reciprocal build up of Russian troops on the border. The rest is recent history.

It has been revealed by Angela Merkel and Macron of France that the Minsk accords were never a serious endeavor and it was just a tactic to arm and train Ukraine for war with Russia.

Before this war commenced Russia proposed a security arrangement the would have not prevented Ukraine becoming a part of the EU, but was vehemently against any more expansion of NATO to its border. This has been clearly stated as its position for years. It could have provided for a militarily neutral Ukraine with the ability to trade with the west and Russia, it was soundly rejected by the United States and its allies. There position is that Russia will not have any say as to who will be a member of NATO. 

It is unlikely that Ukraine will be a viable and prosperous country in our lifetime, it is now solely a dependent on the support of the United States and its allies, at least until they find another crisis more engaging.