Attrition, Ukraine army, NATO members. Who will blink first?

 NO SERIOUS PROGRESS ON BATTLEFIELD, SERIOUS ECONOMIC ISSUES IN NATO 

PROLONGED WAR, ECONOMIC CRISIS

It seems no one anticipated the direction of this conflict in Ukraine, Russia, the U.S., NATO nor Ukraine.

The U.S. is undoubtedly the orchestrater of this drama and assured NATO and Ukraine that the combination of western weapons, economic sanctions and a trained Ukrainian military would trap Russia into capitulation in a matter of months. Russia believed a show of force and determination against NATO expansion would bring Ukraine to the negotiating table and insure a neutral Ukraine.

All these assumptions have been false and now the situation is no longer going to be a negotiated settlement that the west can call a victory. It is a war of attrition, both in Ukraine and in the economies of Western and Eastern Europe. Will this crisis end in a military victory or defeat or the reality that it needs to end if the economies of Europe are to survive?

Germany, the manufacturing center of Europe is on its way to be decimated economically. High energy prices, the loss of business in Russia and now China will mean that Germany, if it is to be a major economy, is running out of time to change the direction of events. So far, the government is locked into a track to just die without any hope. It seems most western politicians cannot adapt to the change  coming to their future. This situation is the same for all the western countries, even if not on the same level of Germany.

Eastern Europe, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, and Slovakia have told the EU that the ban on the import of Ukrainian grain must be extended past the September 15, expiration, or they will do it individually. The farmers in these counties will be devastated if they are compelled to compete with low priced grain competition. 

Poland and these counties are also overwhelmed with refugees from Ukraine that are now appearing to be permanent residents that they cannot afford to accommodate. 

Macron of France has been voicing his alarm at the shift in global trade and alliances that is going to have negative effects on France, both at home and in Africa. 

The credibility of the United States and its role as the leader of the western world has been seriously diminished. With no sign of a change of direction, it will spell a negative future for the U.S. and NATO. While the situation is dire, it can become significantly worse.  

This conflict in Ukraine, a conflict that could have been easily avoided, has now become a pivotal moment in the future of Europe and to some degree the entire world. While it is devastating the economies of Europe directly, it is also propelling a division of the global economic system that now is unlikely to be reversed. It is indeed the beginning of new world order, that as yet has not been fully defined, but is now inevitable.