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Friday, October 20, 2023

Israel war will likely remain regional conflict.

 NO REAL COUNTRIES DESIRE A MIDEAST WAR

BEWARE OF THOSE WHO WANT TO PLACE BLAME TO OTHERS



The reality is that Hamas understands that their future is declining, that if the peace talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia became reality they would be out in the cold. This attack was an act of desperation to bring some other Arab country to their rescue. It is very unlikely to happen as the countries in the region are focused on the future, not being drug into a 70 year conflict without a real solution.

Beware of the U.S. intelligence community trying to link this conflict with Russia, China, Saudi Arabia or even Iran. They all have bigger goals for the future than this Israel issue. While they will voice support for the Palestinian people and supply aid if necessary they are not willing to get involved militarily.

Lets start with China and Russia, because they do business and have relations with Iran, they conclude that they support Iran's support for radicals in the region. The fact is they want to cooperate with Iran because their location is vital in the Belt and Road initiative and other commercial enterprise planned for the future. These countries are part of BRICS economic arrangement and do not want to be forced to take sides in every political issue. Yesterday, Russia and China met in China to expand the Belt and Road initiative and announce the forming of an  alternative international payment system similar to the SWIFT system. It will allow neutral countries to trade and pay in their own currencies without the fear of sanctions and economic penalties for not taking sides. These countries will have the option of using both systems. Both Russia and China have very sound relations with Israel, with China being the second largest investor in Israel. I suspect that Hamas and Israel were not the major topic of their conversations.

Saudi Arabia has been enacting policies that are hoping to make the country a green country, with the use of desalination plants they are going to irrigate the desert and expand the countries economic future to become not dependent on only oil. Their vision is not including in engaging is pointless confrontations. They have entered into establishing a better relationship with Iran because of the possibilities of expanded economic cooperations.

Iran, while a supporter of Hamas would have a lot to risk for engaging in a war with Israel, it would interfere with their opportunities with Russia and China and after being economically isolated for 40 years they may be ready for a new direction. 

Egypt, the country that once ruled Gaza, does not want to engage in this either, they don't want Gaza back or the Palestinian people to be their responsibility. They also are now part of BRICS and will become the gateway to Africa. Their economic future may be very bright. 

Jordan is a friendly neighbor of Israel and has no desire to get into a military operation. 

Syria has been involved in a 10 year civil war and Russia has influence that would not support them in a war with Israel.

Hezbollah, is ruling Lebanon and is supported by Iran, but again their future in a war would not be a step for them in a good direction, while they may have some free lancers who want to go to war, the political operatives know it would not be good for their future.

So, while many would like to push the narrative that this conflict is part of some global conspiracy in the contest between the west and those countries who desire to separate from the western economic system it is more that they just want to be left to chart their own future without the interference of those who want to rule the world.

The opposition to the United States is a natural reaction to the mismanagement of the dollar, of the decline in the value of the dollar, and to the use of the western economic system to punish and control those that are not declared supporters of the economic, social and political agenda of the United States.





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