Will Transnistria become the new bait for Russia?

 EU PRESSURE FOR MOLDOVA TO ABSORB THIS SMALL ENCLAVE

GEOPOLITICAL  GAMESMANSHIP AGAIN

Transnistria or the official name, The Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republics, is a small narrow territory situated between Ukraine and Moldova. The inhabitants prefer to call their country Pridnestrovie and may be offended if referred to as Transnistrians. 

This area has been semi-autonomous since 1924. It has also been under the control of Romania and was formerly part of the Soviet Union. With the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991 it declared independence from Russia and also from Moldova. The international community considers it part of Moldova. There was an armed conflict between Moldova and this country from March 1992 to July 1992. Russia negotiated a ceasefire between the parties that has been in effect ever since and there are  reasonable relations between Moldova and the region.

Pridnestrovie has its own government, border patrol, police, a small military of around 5000, its own currency and functions independently of Moldova, and a population of around 500,000.

Russia has what it refers to as small peacekeeping force of around 1200 and there is a substantial cache of ammunition and weapons left from the soviet era. Russian soldiers rotate in and out through airports in Moldova.

Up until the beginning of the Russian special military operation, they had reasonable relations with both Moldova and Ukraine. Pridnestrovie quickly declared neutrality in the conflict, but Ukraine closed the border at that time. This left Moldova the only border open to imports and exports. Their parliament asked Russia for protection, as they then believed they were vulnerable to attack, but Russia made no decision on that request.

They are also vulnerable from the cut off of gas that moves from Ukraine. The population is Russian, Modavian and Ukrainian.

It seems that now this region is being eyed as an opportunity to place Russia in a position that it may have to decide to defend the region, which is around 200 miles from the Russian border. It seems there is EU pressure on both Ukraine, but mostly Moldova to take over this small region. One can expect that Moldova is being offered sticks and carrots to do this bidding. Possibly some gas from the EU if they cooperate.

It is unlikely that Russia will be distracted from its focus on its existing campaign in Ukraine and defending this country at this time would almost be impossible. We will have to see if Moldava and its citizens are ready or willing to go down this road. One can expect that region has relatives on both sides of this border, but the opportunity to force Russia to open another front or be labeled as losing something is more important than the lives of some collateral damage in this ongoing geopolitical war. 

EU uses gas as political weapon against itself?

 OR IS IT SYMBOLISM OVER SUBSTANCE?

EU IS STILL BUYING RUSSIAN GAS WITH A NEW NAME

Yesterday was a new low in EU politics as Ukraine, with the blessing of Brussels and Washington, cut the supply of gas that comes through Ukraine from Russia. This move is advertised as a step to hurt Russia financially, much like a prisoner who goes on a hunger strike to hurt their jailers, but no one is going to force feed the EU Russian gas, they may very well be successful in committing financial suicide.

The crisis will be especially severe for Hungary, Slovakia, Moldova and Romania who get the majority of their gas through Ukraine. No secret that there is plenty of political pressure on Hungary and Slovakia to submit to Brussels edicts on Ukraine and other social issues. There is also political pressure on Moldova to become part of EU and NATO and soon to militarily invade Transistia. Of course, only Russia would use gas as a political weapon in the middle of winter, except that they have not.

The reality is that the U.S. wants the EU to buy LNG gas from the U.S. at a far higher price than it cost from Russia. Will this cause a rise in the price of energy in the U.S.? Some believe that all those manufacturing businesses closing in Germany will soon emigrate to the U.S., while cheap energy is important it is not the only factor in where a business locates. So far the loss of jobs and business in the EU is being taken by, you guessed it, China. The low cost manufacturing giant is willing and able to fulfill any vacuum created by the west's misplaced political moves.

As for gas from Russia, if it is refined and sold by a third party, it is no longer Russian gas, but some other kind of gas, but at a much higher price. That is the reality of much of the gas that is currently being sold to the EU, just Russian gas with another label, and at a higher price. We must marvel at the wisdom of the current leadership in the EU. 

While they can now proclaim how they are hobbling Russia's ability to wage war, they are in effect hobbling their own ability to be prosperous and inevitably their own ability to wage war. In the meantime many of citizens, who do not live in the big cities, will need to start deforesting the continent to keep warm this winter.

Russia's strategy clear, Attrition, both Ukraine and NATO.

 BRIDGES OVER DNIEPER TELL IT ALL

WHO CAN ENDURE MORE SUFFERING?

While we continually hear rumors of peace negotiations and that Trump will end the war in a short time, the reality is cleary much different. After the initial invasion in 2022 and the failed peace talks in Istanbul, Russia reset its strategy that is now clear and focused. It has not changed and it is not likely to change in the near future. It is a strategy of attrition of men supplies, equipment and money coupled with the results of misguided attempts to damage Russia by cutting off energy to Europe.

While many are still delusional in defeating Russia, the reality is the clock is in Russia's favor. Russia is well aware of their history in defeating foreign enemies and NATO is the enemy of Russia and NATO expansion to contain and encircle Russia has been planned and implemented for 30 years.

The great plains of Ukraine have been a treacherous and disastrous 800 miles for foreign armies, from Napoleon to Hitler and now NATO. Logistics is always a serious consideration in war, if you cannot supply your army, it will be defeated in short order.  While many have stated that Russia's slow advance indicates that it is weak and unable to make much progress in occupying Ukraine.  The reality is that Russia wants to fight this war close to its border, its logistics are short and uncomplicated. It has always been aware that it could become an all out NATO war and it would force the enemy to move men and materials over 800 miles to be at the Russian border.

A clear affirmation of this strategy are the railroad and highway bridges over the Dnieper river, a huge river something like the Mississippi. Russia could have removed these bridges early in the war and caused great logistical problems for NATO's supply to Ukraine, yet they never touched these bridges, as if to say keep sending all that wealth and treasure and we will make it a huge scrap pile in eastern Ukraine, close to our supplies.

Some claim that they kept the bridges to be able to enter western Ukraine, but the reality is that then Ukraine would destroy the bridges to keep the Russia in the east. Russia has never desired to occupy western Ukraine and that is still the case. 

The plan is attrition to the point of an inability to resist. Ukraine's manpower is near that point, but they are encouraged to keep fighting and lower the recruitment age, but it is futile, the longer it goes on the weaker Ukraine will become.

As for NATO, the smaller nations have already indicated that their cupboards are bare of available weapons to send. Every current government on the continent is about to be replaced and their energy shortages are having a decided negative effect on their economies. Is NATO expansion worth suicidal economic warfare? While Washington believes that Europe may be expendables in the geopolitical battle against Russia, do the citizens of Europe agree?

While to now Russian citizens have not had to endure too much discomfort, but if it should need to, I expect that the majority of Russians will out endure the west, they are self sufficient in food and energy and have a history of great endurance against all odds. 

Again, would Ukraine have been better off as a neutral nation able to trade freely with the west and east? Would Europe be in a better place without this conflict and be able to access energy with long term contracts at under market prices as they did before the war? Is the United States in a better place in the world than it was before the Ukraine project?

It is now all about face saving and damaging Russia without regard to any of those realities. The answer to all the above questions is NO. Maybe escalation is all that is needed, after this $Trillion dollar war in expended wealth and lost prosperity will another Trillion bring success? I expect it is time for everyone to start asking those questions, is face saving for the bureaucrats worth all this death and destruction?