NATO expansion key to end of Ukraine war.

 BOTH TRUMP AND PUTIN WOULD LIKE NEW COMPREHENSIVE SECURITY AGREEMENT

CAN THEY OVERCOME THOSE WHO LOVE CONFLICT?

So far, both Trump and Putin have expressed a desire to talk about Ukraine. It seems they are also interested in a new attempt to scale back nuclear weapons. Trump wants such a deal to include China. It appears that Trump could envision a system with recognition of spheres of influence that would keep competitors out of areas considered as security zones. This would be a new approach to global security and would be a departure from the existing policy of the U.S. to attempt to contain competitors, even when there has not been any attempt to expand.

Everyone, of course points to the Russian invasion of Ukraine to proof of expansion, but if they would be objective, it would be clear that this crisis was all about NATO expansion to the borders of Russia, that is considered a threat to the security of Russia. Trump has made it clear he does not want Russian and Chinese ships off the coast of the U.S. or a presence in Panama and I am sure in Mexico or Canada. We must assume he would be willing to keep U.S. ships out of the Taiwan straits or the Baltic sea and would restrain U.S. generals from talking about an inevitable war with China. If you threaten, war you should expect the recipient to prepare for war.

Without a withdrawal of the policy of NATO expansion the war in Ukraine will continue and may very well expand. The reality is that Russia perceives NATO on its borders as a existential threat, as would the U.S. with Russian missiles in Mexico or Cuba. Eliminate NATO expansion and a serious negotiation can begin, otherwise it is just talk without substance.

Somebody needs to silence the U.S. representatives who think they can intimidate China with threats of war. China did not damage the U.S. manufacturing capacity, it was the policies of the U.S. government and the attraction of escaping U.S. restrictive regulations, red tape, taxes and lower costs.  The U.S. is very unlikely to win a war with China, it is not a shortcut to the reforms that need to be made to restore America's competitiveness.

One thing is clear, the U.S. needs a change of approach and policy that has been the policy for the last 3 decades, war, sanctions and intimidation is unsustainable and is becoming increasingly ineffective. It is the biggest threat to the safety and prosperity of the U.S. There is a window of opportunity to change that policy, if the advocates of that policy can be overcome.