Middle east Crisis part 3 iraq

HOW DID WE GET HERE?

MIDDLE EAST CHAOS part 3

IRAQ

 

Iraq, the home of the garden of Eden, Ur, the birthplace of Abraham, Sumaria, Babylon, Assyria, the birthplace of civilization itself. With Bagdad as its capital, it used to remind us of Aladdin, Arabian Nights, caravans, magic carpets, genie's, bazaars and all the images from movies and tales of the past.  A place that I always dreamt of visiting, but never will. Today it brings forth vastly different images.

 

Modern Iraq was ruled by the Ottoman empire until its dissolution in 1917, at the end of WW1. Under the French/British plan to divide the middle east it became part of the British Mandate. On November 1, 1920 the region became a British Mandate under the League of Nations and was called the "State of Iraq". Britain brought in a (Sunni) Hashemite king from what is now Saudi-Arabia to rule, sparking widespread discontent and rebellion.

 

In 1932, Iraq gained partial independence from Britain, although the British-appointed King Faisal ruled, the British military had special rights in Iraq. The Hashemite's ruled until 1958, when King Faisal 11 was assassinated in a coup by Brigadier General Abd al-Karim Qasim. Qasim ruled for 5 years before being overthrown in 1963 by colonel Abdul Salam Arif.  His brother took power after his death and lasted until 1968 when he was overthrown by the Ba'ath Party. The Ba'athist government was ruled by Ahmed Hasan Al-Bakir , but was slowly eclipsed by Saddam Hussein.

Iraq is a majority Shia population mostly in the south and east, Sunni in the north and west and Kurd in the north. There have been disputes with the Kurds off and on for years. Iraq was supported by the United States as part of the Cold -War diplomacy. They were on opposite sides in the Israeli-Arab conflicts of 1948, 1967, 1973. There were attempts to unify Iraq and Syria by the mutually ruled Ba'athist party. This idea was rejected by Saddam Hussein.

 

Saddam Hussein formally seized power as president in 1979. Saddam Hussein was a secularist, but the Ba'athist party was Sunni, the majority of the country was Shi'ite. Saddam Hussein initiated reforms, including universal compulsory education including university, free national medical care and farm subsidies. He also was brutal to all that opposed him and executed many. The Ayatollah Khomeini, the new leader of the Iranian Revolution hoped he could incite Iraq's Shi'ite population to rise up in a Islamic revolution. Saddam Hussein then launched an invasion of Iran in 1980, hoping to topple the Iranian Government. He was supported by Saudi-Arabia, the gulf states, Russia and the United States. The eight year war ended in a standstill costing a million casualties.  The war finally ended in 1989 with a peace plan brokered by the UN and the western powers.

There was an ongoing dispute with Kuwait over portions of  Iraq ceded to Kuwait by the British. This dispute reached a crisis in 1990. There is some debate as to the signals sent by the U.S. in this matter. The U.S. and Iraq had reasonable diplomatic relations at this time. The official line was that the U.S. made it clear, not to invade Kuwait. The ambassador was April Glaspie who had several conversations with Iraq before this invasion took place. You can judge for yourself , as the transcripts of the hearings on this matter are available here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_Glaspie  .  Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990, The UN, led by the U.S., launched operation desert storm in February 1991. Saudi-Arabia was used as the staging area for this war.  The Iraqi army was destroyed with approximately 30,000 dead.  While Saddam Hussein was left in power he was under UN Sanctions and compelled to allow inspections of certain sites.

 

After the war, U.S. troops remained in Saudi-Arabia and this was a contentious issue with many Saudi's including Osama Bin Laudin. Bin Laudin made it known that the stationing of foreign troops in the home of Mecca and Medina was an affront to Islam.  Although he and his associates were exiled out of Saudi-Arabia, they were able to engineer the attacks on the world trade center and pentagon on September 11, 2001. This brought about an invasion of Afghanistan , destruction of Bin Laudin's bases in Afghanistan , and the overthrow of the Taliban government and a beginning of the war on terror.

 

The U.S. under the second Bush administration was increasingly inclined to remove Saddam Hussein from office. He was linked to an attempted assassination of his father, George Bush Sr., he was paying $25,000 to the families of Palestinian suicide bombers in Israel. There began a concerted effort to gain international support for the removal of Saddam Hussein. Eventually claiming that the dictator had weapons of mass destruction that would end up in the hands of al-Qaeda.  On March 20, 2003 the invasion of Iraq began, it did not take long to overcome the Iraqi army. the Iraqi's in general were happy to be rid of Saddam Hussein, but not happy about the occupation. While there was not a clear stated policy,  the plan was to bring a democratic government to the center of the middle east. While the intentions may have been well meaning, it was a very difficult endeavor. The new Government, was majority Shia, the former army was mostly ruled by Sunni Officer corps. Most of these members lost their positions,. and some became affiliated with al-Qaeda and eventually ISIS.

 

President Obama campaigned on ending the U.S. involvement in Iraq. The Obama/ Clinton premature withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq and a government that was not inclusive of the Sunni minority left a void of power that was soon filled by ISIS. When confronted by Sunni fighters the Iraqi government forces often refused to fight for a government for whom they had a weak allegiance. The question remains how long would the U.S. commitment need to be to insure a lasting democratic government in Iraq?

 

PART 4 TO FOLLOW

NW LEHIGH'S DARRYL SCHAFER ELECTED VICE-CHAIRMAN OF PSBA REGIONAL DIRECTORS COORDINATING COUNCIL

Northwestern Lehigh School Board Director, Darryl Shafer, has been unanimously elected Vice-Chairman of the Pennsylvania School Board Association Regional Directors Coordinating Council(RDCC). He will now be serving as one of the 11 members of the Governing Board of the PSBA. These 11 members represent all of the 501 school boards across the state. Northwestern Lehigh should be proud that out of 4500 school directors in the state one of their school board directors has been elected to this position.  Mr. Schafer has served for 10 years on the PSBA. He is currently serving as the Mid-East Region #8 Regional Director, which encompasses Berks, Carbon, Lehigh, Monroe, Pike, and Schuylkill counties. These are all unpaid positions.

Mr. Schafer has served 10 years on the Northwestern Lehigh school board.  He has served as Vice-President and 3 years as President of the board. He has also served on various committees such as Education, Curriculum Council, Negotiations, Operations, School Health Advisory Council, PSBA Legislative Liaison and the NSBA Advocacy Network.

He also holds the position of Vice-President of the Carbon-Lehigh Intermediate Unit #21 and is a member of their Negotiations Committee. He has served in the past as Secretary of the Northwestern Recreation Committee for eight years. He has served as President of the Lehigh Valley Aviculture Society.

He holds a BA from Kutztown University in anthropology/sociology with a concentration in archaeology and a minor in geography. Darryl owns several online bookstores, as well as a seasonal family-run concession business. He is a fully disabled veteran, a life-member of the Disabled Veteran's Association (DVA), and a member of several national sporting organizations. Personal interests include fly fishing, renovating his home, former boy scout, and having shown horses on the national level. Currently residing in Kempton with his lovely wife Becky and their two daughters, Ayla (18) and Cora (13), Darryl is a very strong supporter of the arts, technical education and diversity.

Darryl Schafer has earned the support and respect of all who have worked with him on the Northwestern Lehigh school board, and the PSBA, the Intermediate Unit, and in all his endeavors.  He has served in all these capacities without compensation.  He is known for his research and bringing facts to his positions, his dedication in doing his best. He should be commended by the community for his selfless dedication to a high standard of excellence in his service.


PARKLAND HAS TEACHERS CONTRACT 1 YEAR EARLY

The Parkland school district has agreed to a contract 9 months ahead of schedule. The new contract will take effect on September 1, 2016. This is the usual 3-year contract that includes a salary increase of 2.4% each year.  This is in line with what has been the norm for most other districts in the area. Some say that they were glad to get the contract early as economic clouds are on the horizon and with lay-offs beginning at some large local firms.

Their health insurance plans resemble the C and D plans currently offered by Northwestern Lehigh school district. It appears that most of the districts are attempting to hold down these costs, particularly since their pension costs are rising to more than 29% of salaries for the coming year.

These pension costs have been part of the hold-up on the state budget as they are not sustainable.  The only real answer is a 401k-type plan with defined contributions by the school districts. The pension fund has a $60 billion deficit that is growing, while the economy is probably at the high point in this economic cycle. The pension fund must be reformed if it is to survive. 

SANDERS DOESNT WANT TO WIN NOMINATION

It is now obvious that Bernie Sanders is no more than a sparring partner for Hillary Clinton. Whether it is just to put up a phony show or give Hillary practice in debating, there is really no desire from Sanders to actually win the democratic primary. 

In last night's debate he neutered himself on national television by apologizing for something that, it could have been argued, was not his campaign's fault.  This is the second time that he has played the foil for Hillary on national television. It is interesting that many of his positions coincide with the positions of Republican candidates, particularly trade and national defense. 

Practicing for real debates is often done by candidates, but not on national television in a fraudulent forum. Bernie Sanders has raised substantial amounts of money from honest people who hoped they would have a chance at a new independent presidential candidate. What they have is a fraud who has passed up two chances at raising his campaign to the next level by damaging Hillary Clinton with the truth and has instead kissed the ring of the anointed candidate. He should withdraw and return the money that he has accepted under false pretense of being an actual candidate for president.

I am not a fan of a lot of Sanders' positions, but I thought he was an honest guy willing to depart from the establishment line. He must be a disappointment to many of his supporters.



BERNIE SANDERS, HILLARY AND THE DNC

The Democratic National Committee has suspended the Sanders Campaign from using their database for the foreseeable future. The DNC claims that the Sanders campaign accessed information from Hillary's campaign.

The interesting point is that the Sanders campaign informed the DNC weeks ago that there were problems with the database. Did anyone question that the Clinton campaign may have also accessed Sanders campaign information from the database?

The company that runs the database, NGP VAN, runs this database for all democratic candidates, unions, activists, and most all progressive organizations. The Sanders campaign has paid around $450,000 for use of the database. Has anyone asked what the Clinton campaign has paid for this? The Sanders campaign has sued to regain access to the information they paid for and also access to all the information that they have added to the files. NGP VAN says that it repaired the firewalls within hours of being notified. With only weeks to the beginning of primary season, every day of lost access is a huge handicap to the Sanders campaign.

On Thursday the Sanders Campaign received the endorsement of two very important groups, Democracy for Action, a large progressive group, and the 700,000 member Communication Workers Union. Some say this is what brought about the suspension. The Sanders campaign has accused the DNC of being in the bag for Hillary Clinton. This is undeniably true. The Democratic Establishment would not want Sanders to be their nominee, much like the RNC does not want an outsider as their nominee. Its all about the power and money! The political establishment on both sides will do all that they can do to deny the will of the people. They have become dishonest referees and it will damage their base in the future.

This has given the Sanders campaign, if they have learned anything from Donald Trump, just what they needed, if they are smart enough and adept enough, they can pin this right onto Hillary Clinton. We will now see if the Sanders campaign is a real campaign that wants to win, or just a sparring partner to make Hillary look good. Tonight is their debate, we will see if Sanders can step up to do what it takes to win.

Bernie Sanders is way to the left for most people, but is a likeable and honest candidate. He has brought much to the debate in this election cycle and deserves fair treatment.



Who will rule the Caliphate

MIDDLE EAST COLD WAR ON MANY FRONTS

OIL WARS AND WHO WILL RULE THE CALIPHATE

Looking at the Middle East, complicated and intense maneuvering for power is underway. It is looking more likely that the establishment of an Islamic caliphate is a real possibility. The question is, who is going to rule?  You have Iran, the leader of the Shia world and its allies, opposed by Saudi Arabia, leader of the Sunnis and their allies. You also have Turkey, who is a member of NATO, possibly reminiscing of the glory days of the Ottoman empire. Until recently, this all seemed to be a pipe dream, but events in the last few years make it look much more possible.

The maneuvering has been going on ever since the founding of the Islamic Republic of Iran.  It is escalating now. The Saudis and their allies have been attempting to counter Iran's influence and subversion in diverse places in the Middle East. Iran has been supporting their front groups like Hezbollah for years. Money is flowing to allies, and those not directly committed will need to decide which side to ally with.  Iran has recently had a windfall of 100's of billions of dollars to keep up the fight. The Saudis and their allies are well financed.

Iran, the Shia leader has a population of 78,000,000. It has a modern military and terrain that is defendable. Turkey, a majority Sunni country, is also roughly 78,000,000 people with a modern military. Egypt the largest country, majority Sunni, is secular for now, having overthrown the Muslim Brotherhood, which is a Sunni extremist group; Hamas is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. Iraq is majority Shia, but Arab not Persian. Somalia and Yemen have populations of around 30,000,000 each. You can see by the above names that the struggle in these countries is almost a daily item.

Being Sunni or Shia does not necessarily mean that they all favor an Islamic caliphate , but as we know from history, victory often goes to the dedicated and motivated minority.

While subversion, terrorism and fear are all tools in this conflict, oil has also become a weapon in this war. OPEC and Saudi Arabia have continued to overproduce to depress the price of oil. On one hand it is attempting to bankrupt the fracking producers in the US...US producers need $50 a barrel to be profitable and they have large debts from their huge investments in this resource. They may soon start falling out due to bankruptcy. It will be interesting to see who buys these assets.  Don't be surprised if it is not Middle East players, maybe not directly but indirectly.  Then it also puts pressure on the revenue of their enemies, such as Iran.  It is also effecting oil producers world wide and may cause economic problems in the future.

The US policy is unclear, but it has been consistent from Bush to Clinton, to Bush, to Obama / Clinton. Bush destabilized Iraq, a counter to Iran. Obama /Clinton destabilized Egypt, a secular modern country, by assisting in the deposing of Mubarak. They supported the Muslim Brotherhood, a Sunni extremist group that has ties to the White House and Hiliary Clinton. They overthrew Kadffi in Libya, and there is evidence they supported terrorist groups in that country. They continue to insist on the overthrowing of Assad in Syria, with no plan for what will replace him.

In the latest news, Saudi Arabia is forming a coalition of 34 Mid-East and north African countries, all Sunni majorities.  Iran, Iraq, Syria and Azerbaijan are notably absent.  At the same time we see that the Saudis have allowed voting and electing women to office. Saudi Arabia is the home of Wahhabis ideology which has been propagated worldwide. ISIS and Al-Qaeda have been supported by Saudis, if not the government itself.   This is going to bring about push-back by fundamentalist adherents in their own country. It is very possible we will see increased instability in this influential country. They claim that this coalition is going to destroy terrorists, and if they can clearly demonstrate that this is true, it may go well, but it is a red flag to Iran that they are the object of this coalition.

I believe that Iran has had some nuclear weapons for some time. They probably do not have many, but this is a modern well-educated population, many educated in the west since the 1960's.  To believe that they don't have this 70-year old technology is a stretch.

What they have not had is the means to deliver these weapons. Watching the news, we see that they have successfully tested their first medium range ballistic missiles. They now have the means of delivery. It looks like, unless there is quick change of events, we may be entering a much hotter phase of this conflict.



GOP STRATEGY FAILS

TRUMP, CRUZ, CARSON, LOVE FEST

The debate last night was very interesting in the fact that Trump and Cruz did not take the bait to destroy each other.  Not only did they not take the bait, but they went out of their way to demonstrate that it will not happen.

Trump also made it very clear that there is no chance he will run as a third party candidate. All the maneuvering before the debate by the establishment went down in flames in a big way.

I can see Trump, Cruz and Carson campaigning together against Hillary Clinton.

As for Cruz taking the nomination away from Trump, all that will be necessary is for Trump to let it be known that Cruz will be his first pick for the Supreme Court. Conservatives know the youthful Cruz would be the most dynamic justice on the court. If they had the choice of Cruz being president for 8 years or 40 years on the supreme court, only a fool would choose the former.

As for a brokered convention, there is little doubt that the combination of Cruz, Trump and Carson will have more than 51% of the delegates.

Trump is about to ramp up his media campaign and it will most likely be a departure from the standard fare.

The Carson, Trump, Cruz coalition, which I believe was proposed by Ted Cruz, is a unique and brilliant move by these candidates.

The Republican consultant class may well be facing a low income in 2016.

Middle East Crisis part 2 Afghanistan

HOW DID WE GET HERE?

MIDDLE EAST CHAOS  PART 2

AFGHANISTAN

 

The modern history of the middle east has been overshadowed or clouded by the ideological conflict of the cold war. The policy of the USSR, "The Brezhnev Doctrine"' was to support communist governments that were already in existence and to support and encourage any new communist movements worldwide. The policy of the United States and the western powers was to do all that was possible to block communist and USSR expansion worldwide.

The Soviet Union was the first to publicly warn of the danger of Islamic fundamentalism. The Soviet Union hosted the fifth largest Muslim population in the world during the cold war years.

Afghanistan has a long history of being the crossroads of east and west. It was on the silk road and the gateway to China. We will try to start our observations in the modern era starting in the 1970"s.

The end of the monarchy, and the beginning of the Republic of Afghanistan took place by a non-violent coup by Prime Minister Mohammad Sardar Daud Khan on July 17, 1973. His attempts to carry out economic and political reform met with little success. In April 1978, the Peoples Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA), a Soviet-backed Marxist group led by Nur Mohammad Taraki and others, assassinated Daud and his entire family. The country was then named the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan. Taraki was assassinated in 1979 and replaced by Hafizullah Amin who proceeded to replace religious and traditional laws with Marxist-Leninist ones. While the PDPA held strong control of Kandahar, the rest of the country began to increasingly resist. The PDPA asked for Soviet assistance and the USSR sent in military advisers and also helped to modernize the infrastructure. The PDPA became more repressive and tortured and murdered thousands of the traditional elite, killing over 10,000 and imprisoning over 14,000 more.

In the wake of the Iranian Revolution the US sought rapprochement with the Afghan government. This was not acceptable to the Soviets. In February 1979 the US Ambassador was kidnapped and ultimately murdered when Afghan forces tried to rescue him. The US then reduced assistance and terminated a small military training program.

By early 1979, the Soviets had 1500 advisers in the country and some 20 Soviet advisers were captured and publicly lynched and mutilated. In December 1979, the USSR invaded with 100,000 troops which was assisted by another 100,000 Afghan troops. The Carter administration began to support the resistance. The Reagan administration continued the support. The US through Pakistan's ISI, and Saudi Arabia supplied up to $40 billion in military aid to the Mujahedeen. The 10-year Soviet occupation resulted in the death of between 850,000 and 1,500,000 Afghans; 6 million fled to Pakistan and Iran; 38,000 fled to the United States and many more to Europe. The Soviets lost between 14,000 and 24,000 troops. The fear of militant Islam and the policies of the cold war had placed the Soviet Union in an untenable situation, they began their withdrawal in 1989. The Soviet assistance completely ended in 1992. Their experience was much like the US.'s in Viet Nam. Reforms were begun by Gorbachev with perestroika and glasnost. The Soviet foreign policy and the Soviet system itself were up for reexamination. Interestingly, this was a low point in the history of the USSR, but also a high point in US Soviet relations.

After the fall of the Communist government, the Afghan political parties agreed to a peace and power-sharing agreement (the Peshawar Accords) creating the Islamic State of Afghanistan. All the parties agreed to this accord except Gullbuddin Heckmatyar's Hezb-e Islami who was supported by Pakistan. The interim government was hardly organized before outside forces supported by Iran and Saudi Arabia began fighting for control, Iran supported the Shia Hezb-i Waldat forces, while Saudi Arabia supported the Wahhabite, Ittibad-I Islami faction.  Unrest escalated with different factions, supported by Pakistan, Iran, Saudi-Arabia, Uzbekistan, and regular state forces. In 1995 most of these groups were defeated by the government forces under Ahmad Shah Massoud.

In 1994 , the Taliban under Mullah Omar took power in parts of southern and central Afghanistan. In 1995 with military assistance from Pakistan and financial help from Saudi Arabia they began an offensive against Kabul, but were defeated by Massoud.  In September 1996 they seized Kabul, Massoud and Abdul Rashid Dostum fled and created the Northern Alliance. They controlled about 30% of the country with a moderate Islamic government. The Taliban then created the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. They imposed the strictest form of Islamic law on all who lived in the areas they controlled. They executed many Shia's including Iranian diplomats.

Pakistan supplied troops and supported Taliban and Al Qaeda forces to attempt to defeat the Northern Alliance. In early 2001 Massoud addressed the European Parliament in Brussels asking the international community for assistance. He stated that the Taliban and Al Qaeda had introduced "a very wrong perception of Islam" He claimed the Taliban was loosing popular support of the people and without outside support from Pakistan the Taliban would not endure. On September 9, 2001 Massoud was assassinated by suicide bombers inside Afghanistan. Two days later 3000 American's were killed by Al Qaeda operatives in the United States.

The Taliban and Al-Qaeda were mostly supported by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, both Sunni Muslim countries. By 2001 of the estimated 45,000 Taliban and Al Qaeda  fighters only 14,000 were Afghans. This started out as the last confrontation of the cold war and transitioned into a Sunni-Shia conflict for control of this remote backward country. This was the opening battle in this war that escalated into a major international crisis that has been ongoing with no end in sight.

Part 3 to follow



NEW GOP STRATEGY

The new GOP strategy to get control of the nomination is now becoming obvious. The plan seems to be to enhance the candidacy of Ted Cruz and at the same time pound away that Trump could not possibly win a general election. The media seem to be an enthusiastic supporter of this strategy. They are also hoping and praying they can start a food fight between Trump and Cruz.  While Cruz has refused to take the bait, it is still a question if the same restraint will be maintained by Trump.

At the same time they are leaking that the establishment is planning a coup at the convention. I believe they are baiting Trump to re-act with threats of a third party run, which would discourage support from some Republicans. So far, Trump has not taken the bait.

If they are successful in pushing Cruz past Trump, or causing Trump to overreact, I am sure they believe they can then crush Cruz in short order. Make no mistake in believing the establishment will accept a Ted Cruz candidacy.

While Ted Cruz is a sound Conservative and a stand-up guy, it is doubtful he would be able to maneuver in the Congress. It is questionable about what appointments he would make in his administration.  He would probably do better for the country as Attorney General and possibly a Supreme Court Justice in the future. I like Ted Cruz , but I question if he has the charisma to be president.

Trump, who could arguably be called an arrogant p***k, would have the ability to have a short memory about his enemies and select the best people for his cabinet. He would also not hesitate to remove his appointments that can't get the job done.  He would also be able to maneuver around Congress and the media better than any candidate on both sides. He can also bring a lot more Democratic voters to his side and bring out new voters.

The ultimate goal of the GOP establishment is to place Jeb Bush as president, if they cannot prevail, as Lindsey Graham has stated, they would rather, "loose without Donald Trump, than win with him".



ARE THE ESTABLISHMENT AND THE MEDIA NOW IRRELEVANT?

The Republican establishment, more rabid than ever, has once again failed to diminish the candidacy of Donald Trump.  Is it possible that the so called establishment's credibility is so low that they are irrelevant in controlling the direction of the party? After decades of promising reform, smaller government, balanced budgets, and less regulation they have produced little results, if not outright losses. Is it game over for anyone labeled as "establishment"? The worst thing on a resume is serving for decades in Washington.  With years of a foreign policy, without defining a long term objective or able to articulate an end result, are we really expected to support these people again? You hear that Trump has only 30% of the vote, and then when the candidates thin out,  the establishment's men will reap their votes. The combined establishment numbers of Bush, Christie, and Kasich are at 9% in the latest poll. The Trump, Cruz, and Carson, who would all be unacceptable to the establishment, account for over 64% of the voters.  Their only hope is to rig a convention for this year and run new stealth candidates in the future. (See post from Oct. 22, 2015)

While Trump is inarticulate at times and not always perfect with his facts, what separates him from the party favorites is that voters believe he has the best interest of the country as his priority.  The establishment candidates can spend millions on ads, drag out Bob Dole, John McCain, and Mitt Romney, but it only reinforces the failures of the past. They are not believable and they will not recover for 2016.

The media, including Fox, must be getting the message that they can no longer control what the issues and solutions should be... it appears that Americans have finally started paying attention and thinking for themselves. I hope that is the case.

I suspect the Democratic establishment is going to be in the same boat. I believe they are about to lose support of manufacturing unions, police unions, trade unions and anyone who is able to see they have not been working in the best interest of private sector workers. They will become the party of the fringes and the government employee unions.

We will see how this all plays out.  It may be the greatest show on earth.

PA.  SENATE  PASSES  SPENDING  BILL

TAX  INCREASES  NOT  REVEALED

The senate passed a $30.8 billion spending bill. It has not yet specified how the revenue will be raised to support this spending. It is rumored that they plan to expand the items that will be covered by the sales tax.

This bill was introduced and voted on within 24 hours. It is more top-down legislation, cobbled together in the back room, without input or amendments by members.  It really appears to be a cynical attempt to push it over to the House, where the chances of it passing are slim, especially without the means to pay for it addressed-this way the Senate can say they did their part , the House is the problem.

All have acknowledged fracking taxes are going to be irrelevant, as it is likely that the natural gas industry in Pennsylvania may not survive.  There should be an effort by Penn. to lobby Obama to allow exports of natural gas. This industry has been a bright spot in a dismal economy.  Everyone is enjoying low energy prices for now, but when US fracking business is liquidated, we will then be at the mercy of Middle East oil. This is either a uninformed decision by our national leaders, or they are accomplices in this energy war.

The state revenues have increased since last year, they should make due with what they have. They are giving subsidies in the many millions to the horse racing industry, Hollywood and other corporate free-loaders. The legislature should spend the next session going over the entire budget and eliminating the fat that is not an essential function of government. If done in a contentious way, I have little doubt that they could find a lot of money.

NWL REORGANIZATION

PENSION CONTRIBUTION TO RISE TO 29.27%

 

 

The new Northwestern Lehigh Board members were sworn in last night. Charlene Rauscher, Joseph Fatzinger, Todd Leiser, and John Casciano are the new additions to the board. Everyone wishes them well and support them in their new job.

 

Williard Delliker was named president, Paul Fisher vice-president, and Todd Hernandez Secretary for the board.

 

In other business was news that the district contribution to the teachers pension plan will rise next year to 29.27 % of employee salary. Half of this is supposed to be reimbursed by the state. The biggest obstacle to reform of this pension plan is the state teachers union.

 

The State Budget is not expected to be settled before the new year.

 

The projected Earned Income Revenue is down $84,000 so far, but this is possibly a result of accounting errors at the county level.

 

The next board meeting is January 20, 2016, members of the community are encouraged to attend.

OBAMA, TERROR WATCH LIST, GUNS

Watching President Obama last night seemed to be more of the same. While talking about upping the ante on ISIS, the reality is that in the last 18 months of military strikes against ISIS we were forbidden to bomb oil trucks carrying oil because the drivers may not be actual terrorists. We could not bomb oil wells as this might cause pollution.  ISIS headquarters were off limits because the leaders had their families living there. Our planes return without dropping all of their ordinance, due to restrictive rules of engagement. This is very dangerous for our pilots and ground personnel, landing planes with ordinance attached. Turkey is buying the discounted ISIS oil with our approval. Saudi Arabia is still supporting radical Sunnis including ISIS and Al Qaida, as well funding mosques in Europe and America, some with questionable motives. I have some sympathy for the President, because I don't believe he knows what action to take, and if we were willing to go in and kill ISIS would that end the Middle East crisis?

It is obvious his heart is not in destroying ISIS, but he sure is motivated in regulating American citizens in any way possible. We hear the same phrases and talking points, "high powered military weapons"...but if he would care to inquire, the 223 round, which is 1/3 the size of the average deer hunting round, also has a solid projectile designed to wound, not kill.  More deadly in the these instances would be a shotgun with 00 buckshot which could contain 15,  32 cal. pellets.  A nine-shot shotgun would be capable of delivering 135 pellets 1/3 larger than a 223 in 15 seconds. I hate to get into these details, but you can become tired of hearing so much misinformation. All of his gun control proposals would not have been effective against these attacks.

As for terrorist bombs, these can be made from many items in the average household - propane, matches, hair spray, agriculture fertilizer, and gasoline. What about a car, truck or other vehicle, how many could be killed in a crowded street or highway? We could go on and on. The point is we will not be able to stop dedicated terrorists from acquiring or manufacturing weapons and the means of inflicting mayhem.  We need to stop potential terrorists from entering the country.

We need to focus on terrorists,  not the means to kill and maim. Obama wants to allow 100,000 refugees to come here; if only 1% are motivated terrorists that means 1000 possible troublemakers. His Attorney General stated this week, that it may be an indictable offense to talk negatively about Muslims. I am sure that most Muslims are not terrorists, but I am also sure that a certain percentage are supportive of these attacks without actually being active players. We should suspend all travel from the Middle East until we are confident we can properly screen people entering the country.

Obama's plan to close Guantanamo and place these prisoners into state and federal prisons on the mainland would be a perfect way for radical Jihadists to recruit new members. There is a fertile place to spread anti-American propaganda.

I am sure that the internet is used to spread propaganda and recruit new members; I'm pretty sure that it is monitored. Capturing cell phone calls of all Americans probably will overload analysts with too much information; while new unsophisticated terrorists may use cell phones and e-mail, I doubt serious terrorists are that naïve. Individuals can be adequately investigated with the laws we now have. Bin Laden used personal couriers for years, and the post office, UPS and Fed-X, is a lot more discrete.

I understand the opposition to restricting the rights of people on the terrorist watch list - this list is now over 1,000,000 and growing. It has been used in the past as a weapon against political opponents.  With the record of this administration's use of government agencies to punish political enemies, I would expect it would be expanded 10 fold. People can be placed on these lists, without review, by many government agencies. Someone placed on this list wrongfully would have to fight this with his limited money against the federal government.

I would still like to know what is our purpose in the Middle East? What is the end game? What result are we looking for? It appears we have a conflict  between Sunni and Shia forces, both bent on establishing an Islamic caliphate across the whole Islamic world.  There are coalitions on both sides, and we seem to be jockeying back and forth between sides. The so called radical extremists are the warriors in this struggle, but their supporters are much more widespread. Until we decide what our objectives are we should keep out of this as much as possible.



NORTHWESTERN LEHIGH EXPLAINS FUND BALANCE

The Northwestern Lehigh School District released a video yesterday explaining the details of the district's fund balance.   The fund balance has increased from $11,252,832 on June 30, 2011  to 

$19,542,059 on June 30, 2015.   View the video at the link below:

http://nwlehighsd.org/news.cfm?story=167821&school=0

As the video explains this fund is designated for various future responsibilities.  This approach will limit the need for incurring debt in the future. The board and the administration should be congratulated for their responsible fiscal plan.  

CAP AND TRADE EXPLAINED

While world leaders are congregating in Paris to determine what approach they will use to deal with climate change, we thought it would be a good time to look at the original idea of how to deal with the climate.  

The idea of Cap and Trade had been proposed as a "Market Approach"  to reducing greenhouse emissions. It was proposed in the 1990's by Richard Sandor with the help of Al Gore.  The "Chicago Climate Exchange" or CCX was opened in November 2000. The largest Stockholder was Goldman Sacks, with large stakes by Richard Sandor and Al Gore.  

This idea was that emission caps would be set by a government agency on individual companies, I am sure this would have been done in a strictly objective and unbiased way. Then if a company could not meet those caps they would be required to purchase permits to exceed those caps from companies or individuals whose emissions were less than those set for them, of course in an unbiased and objective way.   

The result of all this was the Chicago Climate Exchange,  which is where all these permits would be bought and sold. This was expected to begin as a $500,000,000 business and grow to a $10 trillion dollar business.  

We have the Chicago Mercantile exchange which trades pork bellies, hogs, beef, oil, or any commodity. We also have the New York Stock Exchange which trades stocks in publicly traded corporations. These transactions all require someone to eventually ship the products or certificates to someone.  The genius of the Cap and Trade business is that the permits are created out of thin air by a government agency, no shipping is required, no packaging needed. In effect they are trading an inert gas and collecting a commission on every transaction.  

The Chicago Climate Exchange was started with a grant of 1.1 million dollars from the Joyce Foundation of Chicago-Barak Obama was a board member at the time. Richard Daly, former mayor of Chicago and Obama adviser, was an honorary chairman. It was a gravy train of money and power for a long list of left-wing advocates. When the handwriting was on the wall, that the law was not going to pass in the U.S. Senate, the original investors unloaded it to the International Exchange for $600,000,000. A few months later in November 2010 the Exchange closed when the whole idea collapsed in the U.S.

All plans being proposed have to do with laws passed by countries, or international bodies. All require government control of all energy.  All will allow government bureaucrats to pick winners and losers. All require taxes that will be re-distributed from energy users through energy providers to poorer countries, or persons determined by the ruling bodies..

While Cap and Trade is dead for now, the plan to tax and control all energy is still alive.