Everyone is saying YES, waiting for the other to say NO.

 KEEPING U.S. IN, OR WAR IS OVER

 IT WILL BE SETTLED ON THE BATTLEFIELD

We have witnessed 2 pivotal meetings in the last week, and much progress has been made with normalizing relations between the U.S. and Russia. These meetings happened because Ukraine is now in a desperate situation. The EU and Ukraine wanted a ceasefire to allow a regrouping and resupply of the Ukraine army. It did not happen, and it will not happen. Russia and now Trump understand the futility of the situation, but both Ukraine, pressured by the EU members, and those members do not want to admit the futility of further fighting. They are believing their own narrative that Russia is weak and on the verge of economic collapse and that in 3 years have been unable to conquer Ukraine.

The reality is that this has been a war of attrition, not taking territory, whoever wins the war of attrition will win the territory. The hope of the U.S. strategists was that Russia would dive deep into Ukraine and be subjected to a long insurgent war. When Russia invaded, they never had sufficient troops to control Ukraine, it was mostly a show of determination to force negotiations. Negotiations were underway in the first few weeks and when those negotiations were scuttled by western insistence, Russia, understanding that they could not defend the territory that they had moved into, withdrew to defensive positions. They then called up reserves and fortified those areas that they sought to defend. Eventually, Ukraine amassed a big army and unlimited NATO equipment for their much touted counter offensive, it retook nothing. Russia destroyed billions of NATO equipment, all part of their strategy of attrition, not only attrition of the Ukraine manpower, but attrition of NATO equipment.

After the counteroffensive collapsed, Ukraine sought to defend its territory and was reluctant to engage in strategic withdrawals. no matter the cost, this played into Russia's strategy of attrition. Russia moved west incrementally and then created defenses and then again moved forward. They often withdrew, if needed, and then moved forward somewhere else. Much of their offense was with standoff weapons and long range artillery. Many Ukrainians never saw a Russian.

While we hear the narrative that the Russians have lost millions, the reality is that the best estimates from independent analysts who viewed cemeteries with aerial photos and obituaries, estimated that Ukraine has suffered 1.8 million deaths, the Russian's 200 or 250 thousand. That does not include possibly 3x that many severely injured. Russia has much better evacuation and medical facilities and  better prospects for recovery. When there are body exchanges the Russians are returning thousands and the Russians receive hundreds. 

Today, Ukraine has reported 500,000 deserters and many have fled the country. Russia continues to voluntarily recruit 30,000 a month, which allows its troops to rotate out and have RR away from combat. Many of Ukraine's troops have been on the front line since the beginning, they are exhausted and in an impossible situation. 

The U.S. and NATO have depleted their supply of weapons to a point of an inability replace them, some estimate it will take several years to replace their materials to an adequate amount for their own security. 

It is evident that Trump, who has expended weapons on other places, is attempting to move this conflict into the responsibility of the Europeans. While we hear much about the coalition of the willing, without the U.S. they will be unwilling and unable, economically, politically and materially.

Trump has told them the U.S. will supply weapons to the Europeans, when they pay for them, and they can supply Ukraine, an unlikely prospect. The U.S. still does not have the weapons and it is unlikely the Europeans will come up with the money.

Meanwhile Ukraine and its supporters are saying yes, to all proposals, fearful that no, will give Trump the excuse to blame them and exit. Russia is saying yes, knowing that Ukraine and its supporters are likely to eventually say no. Again giving Trump a way out.

Without the U.S., the war cannot continue and even with material support,  without western boots on the ground the war is lost. The UK has a total army of only 47,000, they are the most adamant about continuing. The French and the Poles have more, but are they really willing to send them across the border. Does anyone in Europe really want the Germans to rearm and become a serious miltay power?

The U.S., is overextended around the world with its firefighting ability stretched to the limit, and then there is the ultimate risk of a financial crisis in the very near future. It is all unsustainable.

While I hope a deal can be made and Ukraine preserved without any further loss of men or territory, I suspect the war will continue until it is evident that it is impossible to continue.