No surprises in Alaska meeting.

 THE ANSWER FROM EU AND ZELENSKY IS PREDICTABLE

ALL WILL BE WILLING TO BLAME TRUMP FOR UKRAINE FIASCO

The big meet-up in Alaska has probably resulted in some possible improvements to the US/ Russian relations, but as predicted, no ceasefire. They have now agreed that a comprehensive peace deal is the only way this will end. This will now have to be agreed to by the EU and Ukraine and that may be answered as soon as today. If there should be an agreement to work on such a peace treaty, I would expect the conflict will continue a minimum of several more months. 

In Alaska, Putin has agreed to give up its claim on the Kherson oblast on the west side of the Dnieper river and also on the parts of the Zaporizhia oblast still controlled by Ukraine. This would be on condition that Ukraine would surrender the 30% of the Donetsk oblast and 10% of the Luhansk oblast that it still controls. It would also be on condition of no NATO membership, no NATO troops in Ukraine and a neutral non aligned Ukraine. There would also be a lot of other details that would need to be part of real peace treaty. I suspect this offer will have a short expiration date.

Shortly after the beginning of this conflict, the deal would have been Ukraine retaining all its borders, except Crimea and no NATO etc.. That was rejected by NATO and the U.S. and is no longer a possibility.

I no longer have cable TV in my home, but I was away visiting family this weekend and was amazed when watching Fox at the litany of insults and vitriol about Putin, war criminal, brutal dictator, habitual liar. Things that could be said about some of the U.S. favorite allies with more truth. It was one former CIA or state dept official one after another. Many were criticizing Trump for not joining their narrative or even meeting Putin at all. There will not be any peace with Russia as long as these people have power in forming U.S. foreign policy. This is also very obvious to the Russians, who believe it or not, have access to all the U.S. news and bureaucratic narratives.

So today, the EU representatives and Zelensky are coming to Washington. There answer will be NO and it will be encouraged by many Senators and other bureaucrats demanding Russia be defeated. The war will go on.

There are 3 options available. 

1. Make the deal with Russia and do the best that can be negotiated and free up the country to pursue other critical and pending crisis in other parts of the world.

2. Stay the course, send more weapons to Ukraine, weapons that neither NATO or the U.S. is able produce and deliver without diminishing their reserves for own defense. This will most likely end with Ukraine losing all its territory east of the Dnieper river and another 100,000 men. Sanctioning India, China and Brazil will damage the U.S. economy and will not change their trade policies with Russia. I would expect that when Russia gets to the Dnieper, they will be willing to end the conflict with just no NATO and no NATO troops in the remaining Ukraine.

3. Give Russia an ultimatum of leave Ukraine or it will be a declaration of war by NATO and they all can proceed to voting for war in their legislatures. Declare mobilization and federal control of industry.  Russia will not leave and it will be war with the ultimate consequences unknown.

There should be an incentive to Ukraine for the west to help fund its reconstruction, since this Ukraine project was their baby for 2 decades, their people died, at least the west should take responsibility for some of the damage. Russia will reconstruct the territory under their control.

This NATO expansion into Ukraine and Georgia was bad decision, a fiasco for everyone involved, only some humility and acknowledgment of the error will save Ukraine and the world further damage. Again, I suspect they are still not ready to pull the plug on this misadventure.