Don't expect Ukraine deal immediately.

 NO CEASEFIRE, UNTIL DEAL COMPLETED

LOTS OF COMPLICATED DETAILS

While it seems many expect some kind of deal to be reached this week on the Ukraine conflict, it is highly unlikely that a deal will be consummated much before the end of the year. There are lots of complicated details to be reached and Russia is not going to scrap its present advantage for some undetermined outcome. 

Trump, and I am sure still in consultation with NATO, is hopeful to get a ceasefire, as Ukraine is now about to lose its last strongholds in the Donetsk region. When those cites fall, they are now near cut off from supplies and partly surrounded, there will be little fortifications between there and the Dnieper river. 

Whether anyone wants to admit it, this conflict is about Russia's desire for security, not about land, but land and geography are always important for security. Natural barriers, high ground and distance all are important in determining a secure border.

While much of the West desires more access to resources, Russia is not in need of resources, Russia has the most valuable and abundant resources in the world. Now and historically, their most vital concern is security. So, without a settlement that is able to make Russia confident in their security for the long term, there will not be a quick settlement.

At present both Ukraine and the EU are not ready for a serious settlement. They are still talking about mustering and sending troops into Ukraine. They may still attempt to derail any agreement or attempt a false flag plan with Russia. 

Russia still wants a no NATO pledge, no Western troops in Ukraine, no Western bases in Ukraine. there is little reason for trust by Russia, at present the west is building bases in Romania and interfering in the politics of Moldova to further expand NATO. It also building NATO bases in Finland. All this will likely be need to be resolved for any settlement or ceasefire. That is a lot of negotiating and it still needs to include more than just Trump and Putin. 

Before this conflict started, Putin had offered to negotiate a comprehensive security arrangement for Europe, the answer was FU. There is little indication that the answer is any different now, other than Ukraine is about to go belly up. 

Does anyone believe that Europe or the U.S. is really ready to negotiate a long lasting security arrangement for all of Europe. History and the present dialogue indicates the western goal is the hope of dismemberment and subjugation of the Russian federation.

While such an agreement would be in the best interest everyone, I suspect the EU,  NATO and the neocons in the U.S. are not ready to give up on their decades old plans and Russia is no longer naive enough to believe otherwise.