Is the deep state ready to declare victory in Ukraine ?

 MANY QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED BEFORE THE END OF CONFLICT

RESIGNATION MAY BE FINALLY SINKING IN

The Russian delegation is now in Alaska and Putin is expected to arrive just on time for the 11 AM beginning of talks. While many believe that this summit is destined to failure, as it does not seem to have been properly prepared for, there are indications that more talks have been going on under the radar for some time. I do believe that Putin and his delegation would not have come to Alaska for a photo-op or a failure of results. We must now assume that some fundamental decisions have been made.

While a ceasefire is not likely and a complete end of the hostilities is impossible at this time, it is likely that some fundamental decisions have been made between Russia and the United States. 

Last night, I watched of clip of former Gen Jack Keane, who never criticizes Trump, since he is a guest on Fox news, but his analysis was that Putin wanted this meeting, it has publicly been stated it was prompted by Trump. He then went on to declare that Putin wanted the meeting because he is afraid of sanctions and tariffs and also now fearful of Trump, due to his bombing of the nuclear facilities in Iran. The latest threats of tariffs on India has actually pushed India into an alliance with Russia and possibly China. It was an outrageous narrative that I suspect is believed by very few. 

It seems that Keane, who has consistently voiced the neocon position on Ukraine, is indicating that preparations are in the works to declare victory in Ukraine and let details to be settled later.

Lindsey Graham also gave a speech last night and never mentioned Ukraine, but he did state that if the U.S. does not support Israel, it will be punished by god. Are we to assume that the focus is soon going to focus back on the middle east.

The reality is this meeting has been made while Ukraine is on the verge of collapse, both militarily and politically. The conflict maps are unanimous that Ukraine's last major defense networks are almost surrounded and their last supply routes are within range of Russian artillery. The last ditch effort at tariffs on Russian energy buyers has been a dismal failure and Russia has all the leverage in these negotiations.

Professional diplomats, Russia has the best, know that allowing your opposition to save face is the best strategy for long term peace. It is in the best interest of all for some positive results and, of course, a positive narrative to come out of this meeting. 

As for the Europeans and Ukrainians, without the U.S., no war can be waged. The reality is that there is no longer a unlimited supply of weapons available and a Ukraine defense in manpower is reported to be as low as 25% of optimum force. After these last defenses are breached there is little defenses to the Dnieper river. There are indications that Russia has no intention of crossing the Dnieper, but it is the ideal border for a partitioned Ukraine.

The leverage that is going to be exerted on Ukraine and the EU is that it is best to save face and make a deal now or the next boundary will be the Dnieper river and Ukraine will be 30 % smaller.

I suspect that while Russia will make a deal now, it understands that the Dnieper is best natural boundary for a post war Ukraine/Russia long term peace.