MIDDLE EAST COLD WAR ON MANY FRONTS
OIL WARS AND WHO WILL RULE THE CALIPHATE
Looking at the Middle East, complicated and intense maneuvering for power is underway. It is looking more likely that the establishment of an Islamic caliphate is a real possibility. The question is, who is going to rule? You have Iran, the leader of the Shia world and its allies, opposed by Saudi Arabia, leader of the Sunnis and their allies. You also have Turkey, who is a member of NATO, possibly reminiscing of the glory days of the Ottoman empire. Until recently, this all seemed to be a pipe dream, but events in the last few years make it look much more possible.
The maneuvering has been going on ever since the founding of the Islamic Republic of Iran. It is escalating now. The Saudis and their allies have been attempting to counter Iran's influence and subversion in diverse places in the Middle East. Iran has been supporting their front groups like Hezbollah for years. Money is flowing to allies, and those not directly committed will need to decide which side to ally with. Iran has recently had a windfall of 100's of billions of dollars to keep up the fight. The Saudis and their allies are well financed.
Iran, the Shia leader has a population of 78,000,000. It has a modern military and terrain that is defendable. Turkey, a majority Sunni country, is also roughly 78,000,000 people with a modern military. Egypt the largest country, majority Sunni, is secular for now, having overthrown the Muslim Brotherhood, which is a Sunni extremist group; Hamas is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. Iraq is majority Shia, but Arab not Persian. Somalia and Yemen have populations of around 30,000,000 each. You can see by the above names that the struggle in these countries is almost a daily item.
Being Sunni or Shia does not necessarily mean that they all favor an Islamic caliphate , but as we know from history, victory often goes to the dedicated and motivated minority.
While subversion, terrorism and fear are all tools in this conflict, oil has also become a weapon in this war. OPEC and Saudi Arabia have continued to overproduce to depress the price of oil. On one hand it is attempting to bankrupt the fracking producers in the US...US producers need $50 a barrel to be profitable and they have large debts from their huge investments in this resource. They may soon start falling out due to bankruptcy. It will be interesting to see who buys these assets. Don't be surprised if it is not Middle East players, maybe not directly but indirectly. Then it also puts pressure on the revenue of their enemies, such as Iran. It is also effecting oil producers world wide and may cause economic problems in the future.
The US policy is unclear, but it has been consistent from Bush to Clinton, to Bush, to Obama / Clinton. Bush destabilized Iraq, a counter to Iran. Obama /Clinton destabilized Egypt, a secular modern country, by assisting in the deposing of Mubarak. They supported the Muslim Brotherhood, a Sunni extremist group that has ties to the White House and Hiliary Clinton. They overthrew Kadffi in Libya, and there is evidence they supported terrorist groups in that country. They continue to insist on the overthrowing of Assad in Syria, with no plan for what will replace him.
In the latest news, Saudi Arabia is forming a coalition of 34 Mid-East and north African countries, all Sunni majorities. Iran, Iraq, Syria and Azerbaijan are notably absent. At the same time we see that the Saudis have allowed voting and electing women to office. Saudi Arabia is the home of Wahhabis ideology which has been propagated worldwide. ISIS and Al-Qaeda have been supported by Saudis, if not the government itself. This is going to bring about push-back by fundamentalist adherents in their own country. It is very possible we will see increased instability in this influential country. They claim that this coalition is going to destroy terrorists, and if they can clearly demonstrate that this is true, it may go well, but it is a red flag to Iran that they are the object of this coalition.
I believe that Iran has had some nuclear weapons for some time. They probably do not have many, but this is a modern well-educated population, many educated in the west since the 1960's. To believe that they don't have this 70-year old technology is a stretch.
What they have not had is the means to deliver these weapons. Watching the news, we see that they have successfully tested their first medium range ballistic missiles. They now have the means of delivery. It looks like, unless there is quick change of events, we may be entering a much hotter phase of this conflict.
Iran, the Shia leader has a population of 78,000,000. It has a modern military and terrain that is defendable. Turkey, a majority Sunni country, is also roughly 78,000,000 people with a modern military. Egypt the largest country, majority Sunni, is secular for now, having overthrown the Muslim Brotherhood, which is a Sunni extremist group; Hamas is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. Iraq is majority Shia, but Arab not Persian. Somalia and Yemen have populations of around 30,000,000 each. You can see by the above names that the struggle in these countries is almost a daily item.
Being Sunni or Shia does not necessarily mean that they all favor an Islamic caliphate , but as we know from history, victory often goes to the dedicated and motivated minority.
While subversion, terrorism and fear are all tools in this conflict, oil has also become a weapon in this war. OPEC and Saudi Arabia have continued to overproduce to depress the price of oil. On one hand it is attempting to bankrupt the fracking producers in the US...US producers need $50 a barrel to be profitable and they have large debts from their huge investments in this resource. They may soon start falling out due to bankruptcy. It will be interesting to see who buys these assets. Don't be surprised if it is not Middle East players, maybe not directly but indirectly. Then it also puts pressure on the revenue of their enemies, such as Iran. It is also effecting oil producers world wide and may cause economic problems in the future.
The US policy is unclear, but it has been consistent from Bush to Clinton, to Bush, to Obama / Clinton. Bush destabilized Iraq, a counter to Iran. Obama /Clinton destabilized Egypt, a secular modern country, by assisting in the deposing of Mubarak. They supported the Muslim Brotherhood, a Sunni extremist group that has ties to the White House and Hiliary Clinton. They overthrew Kadffi in Libya, and there is evidence they supported terrorist groups in that country. They continue to insist on the overthrowing of Assad in Syria, with no plan for what will replace him.
In the latest news, Saudi Arabia is forming a coalition of 34 Mid-East and north African countries, all Sunni majorities. Iran, Iraq, Syria and Azerbaijan are notably absent. At the same time we see that the Saudis have allowed voting and electing women to office. Saudi Arabia is the home of Wahhabis ideology which has been propagated worldwide. ISIS and Al-Qaeda have been supported by Saudis, if not the government itself. This is going to bring about push-back by fundamentalist adherents in their own country. It is very possible we will see increased instability in this influential country. They claim that this coalition is going to destroy terrorists, and if they can clearly demonstrate that this is true, it may go well, but it is a red flag to Iran that they are the object of this coalition.
I believe that Iran has had some nuclear weapons for some time. They probably do not have many, but this is a modern well-educated population, many educated in the west since the 1960's. To believe that they don't have this 70-year old technology is a stretch.
What they have not had is the means to deliver these weapons. Watching the news, we see that they have successfully tested their first medium range ballistic missiles. They now have the means of delivery. It looks like, unless there is quick change of events, we may be entering a much hotter phase of this conflict.
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