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Tuesday, April 12, 2022

Sanctions have never had a positive result.

ECONOMIC WARFARE HAS OFTEN LED TO MILITARY CONFLICT

RUSSIA SANCTIONS WILL NEVER GO AWAY


The first use of economic sanctions by the United States were imposed on Japan on July 26, 1941. The U.S. froze the assets of Japan in response to its incursion into Indochina now Vietnam. Then on Aug. 1 1941 it placed an embargo on oil and gasoline on Japan which received 80% of it oil from the United States. Japan only had several months of oil reserves until they would have been in serious economic crisis. They then attacked Pearl Harbor on Dec.7, 1941 in the hope that by disabling the U.S. pacific fleet they could capture oil reserves in the south Pacific. We know the rest of the story.

We have had sanctions on Cuba since 1960, 60 years and really no change in the government of Cuba. Cuba does not have the capacity to go to war with the U.S. 

We have had sanctions on Iran since 1980, there has been little change in the government or their attitude to the United States. Again, they do not have the capacity as yet to really attack the United States directly although they have used proxies to harass and damage the United States.

At present the United States has imposed sanctions on Afghanistan, Balkans, Belarus, Burma, Central Africa Republic, Cuba, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Hong Kong,  Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Mali, Nicaragua, North Korea, Russia, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Syria, Ukraine,Venezuela, Yemen and Zimbabwe. It doesn't seem to have had any of the desired effects, these countries have not changed their behaviour. Most all are small weak countries that have no ability to retaliate against this country. You can bet that most of the citizens of those countries do not have a positive view of the United States, as these sanctions have most likely made life more difficult for them personally.

It is obvious that the stick has not been very successful in our foreign policy unless we are willing to enforce it all with military force, yet we still believe we can shape world events by using our economic and dollar hegemony to shape the world. It is likely that that era in history is now coming to an end.

The Russia/Ukraine crisis was a preventable situation that the United States insisted it was going to  squeeze Russia into submission. We actually have had sanctions on Russia since 2014, but actually have denied Russia access to the much of the world system forever. It is likely that we have now entered into an irreversible political and economic conflict.

Russia is not going to give up the territory that it has now and may in the future take from Ukraine, so the sanctions will not ever be lifted. Russia is now on its own and will either do its own Pearl Harbor on the United States or be part of a possible competing economic and political alliance that could encompass half the world.

At present that competing world economic system is a distinct possibility, but you can bet that the U.S. state department will do everything that it can to stop a replacement of the United States dollar as the world reserve currency.

There was time when the U.S. dollar was considered as "good as gold". That was when $35.00 would buy 1 ounce of gold, it now takes $1950. to by one ounce. This is an indication of what deficit spending, military involvement around the world and irresponsible fiscal policies has done to the dollar and it seems it is going to plunge from here.

China, Russia and the oil producing countries are all interested in finding a new reserve currency that will hold its value. So far, no one has found a stable currency that is not backed by Gold. While the dollar may be safe for some time to come, its days are numbered along with the United States ability to sanction the rest of the world.




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