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Thursday, June 2, 2022

Forcing Russian debt default, who is the loser?

 WHILE DEFAULT MAY BE A GOOD TALKING POINT IT WILL BE PAID FOR BY WESTERN GOVERNMENTS

KEYSTONE COPS LOOKED MORE RATIONAL 


For the last 3 months the U.S. and its allies have been working to deny the Russian federation the ability to service its debt payments. So far the Russians have made all their payments on time often facilitated by J.P. Morgan or some other major bank. Now there is bragging that the U.S. have closed all the loopholes that have facilitated the servicing of this debt.

While this may make a good talking point, that Russia is struggling and that they are in default in their debt payments, the losers are western banks and investors. The very same banks and investors who will have a legal basis to be repaid by those western governments, Brilliant. 

We keep hearing how their plan is to weaken Russia and now they have, in effect, canceled their foreign debt. This obviously will give Russia more funds to continue their operations in Ukraine.

Russia does have the funds to make its payments, but these funds need to be transferred through some financial facility. Making it impossible for Russia to transfer funds will be a two edged sanction as its seems many are. That is why Russia is demanding to be paid in rubles for gas and oil and if their customers refuse, they are going to lose access to that energy.

While sanctions have increasingly cost western companies millions in financial loses, Russia has been able to adjust to those companies leaving their country. Others are now reaping the profits of their leaving, Credit card companies have been replaced by Indian and Chinese companies and the chances of those western companies recouping their existing balances has become poor. More debt cancelling.

McDonalds walked away from their plants and equipment and now they will become Putin burgers with the same facilities and employees. India and China and others are now buying discounted Russian oil and gas which will make them more competitive in the world markets. Energy in Russia is costing its residents 1/4 of the cost in the west. While Russian oil may be discounted, it is still rising as the world price rises.

In the last quarter payments in rubles and yen have risen 1000%. The value of the ruble is at an all time high. It is becoming obvious that emotionally levying sanctions without analyzing the long term consequences has not been a consideration of this administration and they are leader of the West. Where are they leading everyone?, into the abyss of economic ruin?







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